Newsletter September 2011

Volume I. No 1

A word from the LSTA President Mr Gregoire Azar

Dear LSTA Members, Dear Friends, In this first LSTA Newsletter, I would like to insist on our Associations Goals and our real Objectives : Create a Community for Technical Analysts in Lebanon, Sharpen the skills of Lebanese Dealers / Investors, Exchange knowledge and experience among the members, and to enhance Professional Qualifications of LSTA members. With a few number of valiant young people, We succeeded in giving birth to the Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts- LSTA after months of difficult combats against unforeseen obstacles, and unpredicted hurdles. Our initiative took us almost two years, but we made it at last. LSTA is now offering to our Lebanese colleagues what all Traders, Investors, Portfolio Managers, Private Bankers need most of all in these volatile markets governed by uncertainty : Knowledge, Education and Expertise . The Overall economic crisis since 2008 continues to strongly weigh on financial markets; and as you know, the only approach to control irrationalism and emotions in these tumultuous markets is Technical Analysis. Therefore, do invite your friends and colleagues to join us in our monthly ESA gatherings, to get familiar with Technical Analysis and its methods, to learn how to detect Entry/Exit signals, and how to put Discipline in their trading, the magical word for success in dealing Stocks, Currencies and Commodities. Finally, I would like to wish good luck to our Communications members, and thank them in advance for their energy in publishing our Newsletters. I Hope to see you on October 21 2011, as usual at ESA premises, at 18h00. Kindest Regards. Gregoire Azar
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Greed and fear in financial markets In order to talk about fear and greed, we have to understand some concepts. What are human emotions
and what is their incidence and impact on our daily interactions, especially the stock market and its derivatives since this is the main interest of our subject. All our actions are governed by our emotions. At the far end of the collection of emotions lie two major ones Greed and Fear. In psychology this parallels to the impulses of life and death, or in psychological lingo, libido and mortido. When we see the ticks of the underlying security we are trying to buy or sell go up or down on our screens so do our heartbeats. But are we going to let our emotions control us or are we going to control them. Here lies the difference between winning or losing in the stock marketOnce we step into the arena of investing we are in a dangerous environment and getting there unprepared in like facing a wild untamed animal, a bear or a bull as a matter of fact. If you dont get to know him and tame him, he maims you. Greed is nothing but excessive desire. Fear is the exact opposite force and both are born from unreasonable immoderate expectations. When we first stepped into the investment world we all had dreams and high expectations. But like the neophyte who first steps into a martial arts gym when asked to perform his first fight is overtaken and crippled by fear and cold hands and feet, so was our fate when we saw the investment we just made melt down as the ticks started dribbling and sinking on the screen of our pc. If we did not come back and trained hard or studied even harder to increase and perfect and hone our

knowledge and skills to come back fighting, passing many trials and tests from which we diligently drew our lessons and perfected our strategy we would have never made it past of being a good fighter or investor alike, mind you a champion or would be millionaireBut what to do and where to start in this vast, wild and volatile financial world? It is worth mentioning here that there exists a very skillful and efficient discipline today called technical analysis. It is the art and not-so-exact science that will give you, if well applied, an edge, control and objectivity in financial markets based on the study of human psychology and emotions in which the chart is simply a representation and visualization. While this articles purpose was to present a summary on the subject, it will be our mission to tackle all along the subsequent issues the diverse points related to it. While wishing you all safe and profitable trading, we tell you stay alive and keep learning in this ruthless yet amazing world. So long! Mario Kfoury

LSTA monthly meeting September 15th 2011

DURING LSTA SEPTEMBER 15 MEETING AT ESA , LECTURES AND FORECASTING STUDIES IN TECHNICAL ANLYSIS WERE EXPOSED BY DIFFERENT SPEAKERS , MR GREGOIRE AZAR AND MR RICHARD ELIA , FROM WHICH WE SHARE SOME EXCERPTS ON THE NEXT PAGES.

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EURO
EURO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST: TREND NEGATIVE UNLESS A BREAK IS SEEN ABOVE 1.3950 ( DAILY CLOSE) PREFERABLY ABOVE 1.4050 OUR CONSERVATIVE TARGET = 1.3400/ 1.3350 POSSIBLE TARGETS = 1.3050 PROBABLY 1.2875

EURO LONGER-TERM FORECAST: TREND STILL NEUTRAL UPTREND WILL BE CONFIRMED ONLY ABOVE 1.5070, BETTER IF ABOVE 1.5150/1.5220 DOWNTREND WILL BE CONFIRMED ONLY IF BELOW 1.2875 & TARGETS: 1.1875/1.1200

GOLD

GOLD SEEMS TO HEAD DOWN FOR A CORRECTION : EXPECTED TARGETS: FIRST 1725 / 1702 MOST PORBABLY 1691 / 1650-37 / 1614 POSSIBLY 1579 / 1541 -----BELOW WILL CALL FOR 1475 THEN 1452 +++++ UNLESS A BREAK OCCURS ABOVE 1900, ANYTIME TARGETING: 1950/2000 POSSIBLY 2045

S&P 500
S&P 500 chart was explained by Mr Richard Elia on 15/9/2011

DISCLAIMER : THIS PRESENTATION IS OUR OWN ANALYSIS, BASED UPON CHARTS & INFORMATION WHICH WE CONSIDER TO BE RELIABLE. THE ANALYSIS AND OPINION IN THE MATERIAL REPRESENTSOUR VIEW AT THE TIME OF TRANSMISSION. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SUCH ANALYSIS AND OPINION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE ANYTIME, WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE.THIS PRESENTATION IS ONE SOURCE ONLY AMONGST MANY OTHER STUDIES TO BE ALSO CONSIDERED IN CARRYING ON YOUR BUSINESS OR ACTIVITY. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT GIVE OR PRETEND TO GIVE AN INVESTMENT ADVICE. ANY ACTION TAKEN BY USERS ON THE BASIS OF MATERIAL AND OUR ANALYSIS VIEW IN THIS PRESENTATION IS ENTIRELY AT THE USERS' OWN RISK.

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