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Unfixable

Welcome to the new abnormal

Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

THE NEXT 20 YEARS ARE GOING TO BE COMPLETELY UNLIKE THE LAST TWENTY YEARS
!

Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

Investing Made Impossible...

Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

The Three Es

Economy

Environment

Energy

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. .

How Economists See the World

What is Money?
!

Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

All Money is Loaned into Existence

Key Concept
All money is loaned into existence. Key Concept
Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

D Perpetual growth is a E requirement B of modern banking. T

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Implicit Assumptions...

Whats the implicit assumption?


320 300 280 260 240 220 200
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US DEBT TO GDP

180 160 140


1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: Ned Davis Research http://www.safehaven.com/article-5995.htm

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A Global Phenomenon

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Economy
Must Grow

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Exponential Growth
!

A Hockey Stick Chart


12 10 8 6
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4 2 0
-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000
!

1000 2000 2100

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Exponential Growth
!

The Power of Exponential Growth


12 10 8 6
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4 2 0
-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 2100

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Santiago Bernabeu Stadium

If we began at 12:00, when would the stadium be filled? 12:50 At what time would it still be 97% empty?
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12:45
!

12 10 8

Population

Billions
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6 4 2 0
-7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 -1000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 1000 1000 2000 00 1000 2000 2100

Years

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Production

1800

Oil

1900 2000

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/ cms/mg20026786.000/ mg20026786.000-1_1701.jpg

Forest Loss

Water Use Species Extinction


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Fisheries Exploited
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Key Concept
Exponential charts are everywhere. Economy. Energy. Environment.
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Speeding up!
!

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A Little Less Confusing...

Problems Vs. Predicaments

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Energy
!

US Oil Production & Dependency

The Peak

Imports

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Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

A Discovery Peak

Billions of Barrels

World Oil Discovery by Decade


1964

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Oil Past (conventional) Peak Already

Quantity Is An Issue
!

Oil Exponentials

Oil Shock II
Production
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Oil Shock I

1800

1900

2000

The Energy Cliff - Oil


Oil in 1930 100:1 Oil in 1970 25:1

Energy used to get energy

Oil in 1990 18:1 to 10:1 Oil today? 3:1?

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Surplus energy available to society

(Energy Out) (Energy In)

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The Reality

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The Worry

Quality Is An Issue
!

Must Grow

Cant Grow

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Quantity & Quality: Equally important!

Environment
!

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Copper Nugget
Copper Ore 10%

Copper Mining - Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah

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Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

Depletion In View

Resource Extraction Profile


Cost $ Energy

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Must Grow

Cant Grow

Quantity & Quality; equally important !


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Depleting

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Must Grow

Depleting

Cant Grow

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The Contest....

Vs.

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Our Money System is Poorly Designed

Problem or Predicament?
!

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Deepwater Horizon

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The Global Financial System

Fixable or Not?
!

Copyright 2004-2008 Chris Martenson

Still Not Easy, But Doable...

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