Risk Estimation

Two distinct categories of Risies

Voluntary Risks e.g. driving or riding in an automobile, and working in an industrial facility. Involuntary Risks

e.g. exposure to lighting, disease, typhoons and persons in residential or recreational areas near the industrial facilities.

Examples of risks associated with activities

Voluntary Risk fatalities (death) per person per yr (x106) 5000 2000 1200 170 40 20 Involuntary Risk fatalities (death) per person per yr (x106) 200 80 60 50 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.02

Activity Smoking (20 cigarettes/day) Motor cycling Car racing Car driving Rock climbing Football

Activity Influenza Leukemia Run over by road vehicle (UK) Run over by road vehicle (USA) Floods (USA) Storms (USA) Lightning (USA) Falling aircraft (USA) Falling aircraft (UK)

Individual Risk
Individual risk is defined formally (by Institution of Chemical Engineering, UK) as the frequency at which an individual may be expected to sustain a given level of harm from the realization of specified hazards. It is usually taken to be the risk of death, and usually expressed as a risk per year. The term individual may be a member of a certain group of workers on a facility, or a member of the public, or anything as defined by the QRA.

Location Specific Individual Risk

IRx ,y ,i pi fi
IRx,y,i is the individual risk at location (x,y) due to event i, pi is the probability of fatality due to incident i at location (x,y). This is normally determined by FTA fi is the frequency of incident outcome case i, (per year). This value can be determined using Probit Analysis When there are more than one release events, the cumulative risk at location (x,y) is given by equation

IRx ,y IRx ,y ,i
i 1

Average Individual Risk / Individual Risk Per Annum

The average individual risk is the average of all individual risk estimates over a defined or exposed population. This is useful for example in estimating the average risk of workers in reference with existing population. Average individual risk over exposed population is given by CCPS (1989) as

IRAV

IRx y Px y x y
, , ,

Px y x y
, ,

Here, IRAV is the average individual risk in the exposed population (probability of fatality per year) and P x, y is the number of people at location x, y

Example: LSIR for Proposed Chemical Plant

Societal Risk
Societal risk measures the risk to a group of people. It is an estimation of risk in term of both the potential size and likelihood of incidents with multiple consequences. The risk can be represented by Frequency-Number (F-N) Curve.

Determination of Societal Risk

To calculate the number of fatalities resulting from each incident outcome case, the following equation is used:

Ni Px ,y pf ,i
x ,y

Here, Ni is number of fatalities resulting from Incident Outcome case i, pf,i is the probability of fatality and Px,y is the number of population. The cumulative frequency is then calculated using the following equation:

FN Fi
i

Here, FN is the frequency of all incident outcome cases affecting N or more people, per year and Fi= is the frequency of incident outcome case i per year.

Example: The corresponding Societal Risk

Frequency (F) on or more Fatalities (per year)
1x10-3

1x10-4

Intolerable Region

1x10-5

ALARP Region Broadly Acceptable Region

1 10 100 1000 10000

1x10-6

1x10-7

Fatalities (N)

Risk Tolerability and ALARP Concept

In life, there is always some risks

There is no such thing as zero risk All activities involve some risks The issue is at level should we tolerate these risks

Tolerable Risk
Risk cannot be eliminated entirely. Every chemical process has a certain amount of risk associated with it. At some point in the design stage someone needs to decide if the risks are tolerable".

One tolerability criteria in the UK is "as low as reasonable practicable" (ALARP) concept formalized in 1974 by United Kingdom Health and Safety at Work Act.
Serious consideration must be made to decide on tolerability based on ALARP

Page 13

ALARP Criteria
INTOLERABLE LEVEL (Risk cannot be justified on any ground) TOLERABLE only if risk reduction is impracticable or if its cost is grossly disproportionate to the improvement gained TOLERABLE if cost of reduction would exceed the improvement gained BROADLY ACCEPTABLE REGION

THE ALARP REGION (Risk is undertaken if benefited is desired)

Page 14

Tolerability Criteria in Malaysia

LSIR is used as a measure of individual risk
This means that the risk is not influenced by population

The Upper limits for LSIR are as follows

For residential receptors : 1 X 10-6 fatality per year For industrial receptors : 1 X 10-5 fatality per year For workers on site: Voluntary risk (1 X 10-3 fatality per year). This is considered maximum in UK for offshore industry.

Tolerability Criteria (UK)

This framework is represented as a three-tier system as shown in figure. It consists of several elements :

(1) Upper-bound on individual (and possibly, societal) risk levels, beyond which risks unacceptable. In UK, the guideline and criteria are spelled out in R2P2 (reducing Risk Protecting People) document. (refer to www.

hse.gov.uk)
(2) Lower-bound on individual (and possibly, societal) risk levels, below which risks are deemed not to warrant regulatory concern.

(3) intermediate region between (1) and (2) above, where further individual and societal risk reductions are required to achieve a level deemed "as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)". Page 16

Tolerability Criteria (UK)

Dotted line general public

Solid line - workers

Tolerability criteria (Netherland)

1. Risk to public cannot be more than 1X 10-6 fpy 2. Fatality cannot be more than 10 at risk 1X 10-5 fpy 3. Slope -2

General public only

Tolerability Criteria (Australia)

Tolerability Criteria (Canada)

Major industrial accident council of Canada (MIACC) recommends the above Individual risks level