The World in 2050

Challenges and Opportunities for Modelling and Simulation

Richard Zobel
Dept. of Computer Engineering Prince of Songkla University Phuket Thailand

Global Problems and Challenges: Can Modelling and Simulation Help?

1 2 3 4 5 6

Climate Change Consequences Threats from Earth Movements Approaching Asteroid Threats Overpopulation Consequences More Violent Weather Possible Military Threats

Climate Change Symptoms

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Rising Sea Levels Higher Temperatures Loss of Habitat Due to Fires Migration of Species and Diseases Migration of Peoples Loss of Agricultural Land Famine and Fighting

Climate Change Consequences

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Smaller land area, loss of shore Drier climate, drought, crops Major fires causing destruction Addition or loss of species People move to temperate areas Less agriculture, food shortage Starvation and wars

Fresh Water Needs

There is insufficient supply of fresh water in many countries. Desalination of seawater can solve this problem, but requires energy.

Typical Multistage Flash Converter Seawater Desalination Plant in the Middle East
(Copyright & Courtesy of Parsons Brinkerhoff)

Additional System Requirements 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Local Power Source Storage and Distribution Brine Waste Disposal Environmental Consequences Rate of Production Capital and Running Costs Maintenance

Solar Panel Array

Wind Power
Typical Wind Turbine

Low Power Output Need Large Numbers

No power without wind

Best out at sea

Modelling and Simulation a Systems Approach 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Link models and simulations

Scale local or regional Consider management Consider operations of neighbours Rate of Production and Storage Wind is good with water storage Saline waste disposal is a problem

Energy Supply and Power Generation Types of Power Generation 1 2 3 4 5 Carbon Based (Oil, Coal, Gas) Water Based (Wave, Tidal, Rivers) Wind Based Solar Based Nuclear Based

Oil Production 1930-2050

(Courtesy F. Cellier, ETH, Zurich)

Oil and Natural Gas Production The figure shows a declining situation.
New sources have poor yield This needs more energy for extraction Meanwhile there is population increase Rising sea level means less land Low carbon technologies are not up to speed yet

Conventional Nuclear Power

This is increasing with newer designs. However, only a small proportion of the enriched uranium is used low efficiency. Fast breeder reactors are needed. Plutonium reactors are being developed. This would lead to substantial reduction in stored spent Uranium, and substantial reduction in stored Plutonium.

Control Room of Paks Nuclear Power Station Training Simulator Courtesy J. S-Janosy, KFKI, Budapest, Hungary

16

Nuclear Fusion
This is a method for power generation using a similar atomic reaction as the Sun Prototype is under construction in France It might be operational by 2050. There are other related methods They do NOT use Uranium, Plutonium, etc They should solve long term energy needs

Design of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (Courtesy of Zoletnik, Association EURATOM/HAS, KFKI, Hungary)

Climate Change Effect

Warmer, drier, more violent weather, etc Rising sea levels consequences! Loss of: land, capital cities, food production, etc Reduced habitable areas Over population Mass migration of peoples These need to be modelled in advance to obtain estimates of the consequences for each region and circumstance.

Some Major Challenges

Earthquakes and Tsunami Caused by plate tectonics, landslides, geophysical adjustments, etc Flash Floods and Mudslides Caused by extreme weather, local geography, poor water course management, poor construction, etc Meteor Strike Unpredictable, but detectable?

Solutions are required to minimise loss of life, damage, and financial loss

The World in 2050 Conclusions

The Key Issues: The most important contributors for solving these real problems ahead of disasters are modellers and simulationists who are: Scientists, Technologists Engineers and Mathematicians: Who employ a whole systems approach, not piecemeal This means YOU!