MT 378: Queuing Theory and Inventory Models Tutorial sheet 1

1. Consider an inventory system in which the sequence of events during each period is as follows. (1) We observe the inventory level (call it i) at the beginning of the period. (2) If i 1, 4 - i units are ordered. If i 2, 0 units are ordered. Delivery of all ordered units is immediate. (3) With probability 1/3, 0 units are demanded during the period; with probability 1/3, 1 unit is demanded during the period; and with probability 1/3, 2 units are demanded during the period. (4) We observe the inventory level at the beginning of the next period. Define a periods state to be the periods beginning inventory level. Determine the transition matrix that could be used to model this inventory system as a Markov chain. 2. Consider the following transition matrix:

0 0 0 P = 1 4 1 0

0 0 0 1 4 0 1 3

1 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 1 2 0 0

0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3

a. Which states are transient? b. Which states are recurrent? c. Identify all closed sets of states d. Is this chain ergodic? 3. For each of the following chains, determine whether the Markov chain is ergodic. Also, for each chain, determine the recurrent, transient, and absorbing states;
0 .8 .2 P = .3 .7 0 1 .4 .5 .1

.2 .8 0 0 0 0 .9 .1 P2 = .4 .5 .1 0 0 0 0 1

4. For each of the Markov chains, determine the long-run fraction of the time that each state will
be occupied;

a.

2 3 1 2

1 3 1 2

.8 .2 0 b. 0 .2 .8 .8 .2 0

c. Find mean-first passage times for part b 5. Consider two stocks; stock 1 always sells for $10 or $20. If stock 1 is selling for $10 today, there is a .80 chance that it will sell for $10 tomorrow. If it is selling for $20 today, there is a .90 chance that it will sell for $20 tomorrow. Stock 2 always sell for $10 or $25. If stock 2 sells today for $10, there is a .90 chance that it will sell for $10 tomorrow. If it sells today for $25, there is a .85 chance that it will sell tomorrow for $25. On average, which stock will sell for a higher price? Find and interpret all mean first passage times. 6. The State College admission office has modeled the path of a student through State College as a Markov chain: Fr. Freshman Sophomore Junior Senior Quits Graduates .10 0 0 0 0 0 So. .80 .10 0 0 0 0 Jr. 0 .85 .15 0 0 0 Sr. 0 0 .8 .10 0 0 Q. 10 .05 .05 .05 1 0 Gr. 0 0 0 .85 0 1

Each students state is observed at the beginning of each fall semester. If a student is a junior at the beginning of the current fall semester, there is an 80% chance that he will be a senior at the beginning of the next fall semester, 15% chance that he will be a junior, and a 5% chance that he will have quit. (We assume that once a student quits, he never reenrolls). a. If a student enters State College as a freshman, how many years can he expect to spend as a student at State? b. What is the probability that a freshman graduates? 7. Study the following system and identify all the associated queuing situations. For each situation, define the customers, the server(s), the service discipline, the service time, the maximum queue length, and the calling source.

Orders for a job are received at a workshop for processing. Upon receipt, the supervisor decides whether it is a rush job or a regular job. Some of these orders require use of one type of machine, of which several are available. The remaining orders are processed in a two stage production line, of which only two are available. In each of the two groups, one facility is especially assigned to handle rush jobs. Jobs arriving at any facility are processed in order of arrival. Completed orders are shipped upon arrival from a terminal shipping zone having limited capacity. Sharpened tools for different machines are supplied from a central tool crib, where operators exchange old tools for new ones. When a machine breaks down, a repairperson is called from the service pool to attend it. Machines working on rush orders always receive priorities both in acquiring new tools from the crib and in receiving repair service. 8. Suppose that the birth times in the country are spaced exponentially with an average of 7 minutes per birth. The clerk who enters the information to the birth certificates normally waits until at least 5 births have accumulated. b. What is the probability that the clerk will input a new batch every hour? c. What is the probability of issuing 40 certificates by the end of 5 hours given that 20 certificates have been issued in the first 2 hours? 9. Consider a single-server situation in which the arrival and departure rates are constant and given by n = = 4 and n = = 5 respectively. d. Determine the steady-state probability of having no one in the system. e. What is the probability that the system will not be empty? 10. Calculate the measures of performance for a single-server model with n==3 and n==4. 11. Cars arrive at a toll gate on a freeway according to a Poisson distribution with mean 90 per hour. Average time for passing through the gate is 38 seconds. Drivers complain of the long waiting time. Authorities are willing to decrease the passing time through the gate to 30 seconds by introducing new automatic devices. This can be justified only if under the old system the number of waiting cars exceeds 5. In addition, the percentage of the gate's idle time under the new system should not exceed 10%. Can the new device be justified? 12. Consider a single car service facility, where the arriving cars follow a Poisson

distribution with mean 4 per hour. The time for servicing a car follows exponential distribution with mean 10 minutes per car. Suppose the facility has a total of 4 parking spaces. If the parking lot is full, newly arriving cars balk to seek service elsewhere. Find the measures of performance.

13. Two bicycle renting companies operate in Makorora town sharing equal market with

an average of 10 customers per hour. The average time a customer takes per ride is 11.5 minutes and each company owns 2 bicycles. A new boss has recently bought the two companies. However, the new boss is faced with a problem of deciding whether he should join the two companies into one or operate them separately.
f.

Show that the percentage utilization or the two models is the same results to advice the boss on which model to use.

g. Find the waiting time in the queue for each of the two models. Use your

14. The new boss in the Bicycle Company in question 2 observed that the expected

waiting time for a customer is too long. However the boss cannot buy new bicycles for the time being. The short solution to this problem is to limit the number of waiting customers to 16. Any other customer is advised to seek service somewhere else. What is the new expected waiting time in the queue?
15. Flour milling company uses a total of 22 machines. On the average, an operative

machine breaks down once every two hours! However, it takes only 12 minutes on the average to repair a broken machine. The Management is interested in determining the number of repairpersons needed to keep the machine running reasonably smoothly. Find the machine productivity (percentage utilization) for the cases of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 repairpersons. Which number would you advice the boss to hire?