Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Agenda
Molybdenum
Niobium
World steel production is expected to exceed the 2007 level after recovering from the collapse of 2009
1600
1400
1200
+ 6,5%/yr
1000
+1%/yr
800
400
Iron Age
200
Crash of 1929
WW1
WW2
0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Glorious 30
1960
+2,5%/yr
600
+6%/yr
Pityful 25
1980 1990
New Era ?
2000 2010
1970
China cannot be ignored : China is and will be leading the growth of the steel industry
Evolution of Indian and Chinese steel production (Mt)
700
600
+ 90 Mt in 2010
2010E: 660 Mt
2009: 568 Mt
500
400
2005: 352 Mt
300
China
200
India
2010
The fall in demand has hit OECD countries hardest; ROW was less affected, while China kept growing
60
China
40
ROW
20
OECD
jan-08
apr-08
jul-08
oct-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
oct-09
jan-10
apr-10
jul-10
The evolution of China is quite similar to other developed countries in the past
Growth rate of crude steel production (%)
30% USA/Canada. Japan Europe Korea Taiwan Forecast China
20%
India
10%
0%
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Chinese cumulated steel consumption per capita is only 15% of that of industrialized countries
Cumulated steel consumption, 1948 to 2008, per 2008 capita (cumulated tonnes per capita, including net cumulated imports)
30
25
Cumulated steel consumption is an indicator of the development of modern infrastructures in a country. The data suggest that China has accomplished one fifth of the way towards a modern infrastructure. China is developing at a fast pace, and is focused on overtaking developed countries. That is the reason for such a high consumption of raw materials, which should keep rising.
20
15
10
0 EU15 USA JAP URSS/CIS KOR WORLD CHI IND ROW Source: World Steel, Laplace Conseil analysis
China raw materials consumption share is far higher than its share of world population
45% 40%
30%
Zn Al Pb Cu
Population Electricity
20%
10%
Uranium
0% 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2009 Source: WorldSteel, IAI, WorldBank, NBS, China Metals, Laplace Conseil analysis
The steel industry remains far less concentrated in China than in Western regions
Comparison of steel industry concentration in 2009, by region
(% of region total output, including all steel makers with an output > 2Mt)
100%
80%
North America
60%
EU-27
40%
China
20%
0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
In China, small companies have been growing faster than leading steelmakers during the past decade
600
China's crude steel output, main producers* versus 'small' ones (Mt)
*"main" producers are those with an output >10Mt in 2009
500
400
300
200
'Small' steelmakers
+13%
100
Main steelmakers
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10
After 2010, the steel production should rise again by 5 to 6% per annum
2000 1800
1600 1400
India
1200
1000 800 600 400 200
China
750Mt
M.East & Africa S.America NAFTA Others Europe & CIS EU-27
0 1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
11
Agenda
Molybdenum
Niobium
12
Steel related usages represent 83% of total Nickel consumption, and stainless 65%
Nickel consumption 2009 Total 1,2 Mt
Coins Others incl chemistry Rechargables 2% 3% batteries 3% Electroplating 9% Low alloy steel 8%
13
Nickel prices are back around $20 per kilogram and LME stocks are still high
Nickel Price LME, $/kg
60 50 40 30 20 10 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jun-10
Ni LME stock, kt
jan-04
dec-04
nov-05
oct-06
sep-07
aug-08
jul-09
jun-10
USA
OECD
China
World
Cuba 8%
14
Russia 9%
Nickel production is fairly widespread; China produces only 12% of global output
Primary Nickel production, kt
1600
1400
Africa China
400
CIS
15
Overcapacity has been growing after 2006, the prime reason for the price collapse
Primary Nickel production & consumption, kt
1600
60
50
1400
40
1300
30
1200
Production
20
Consumption
1100
10
1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
16
Agenda
Steel Nickel
Manganese
Chromium Molybdenum Niobium
17
Chemicals (inc. Agriculture) 3% Electronics 4% Other High performance steel for industry 3% Stainless steel, other than S200 3% Stainless steel S200 3% Hadfield steel & non-magnetic Mn 3%
Others 1%
18
Usually, Manganese is added at a rate of 1%, but high strength grades are more Mn intensive
Mn content of selected steel products
Stainless 200 Extra high-strength auto sheet High-strength plate API-grade plate Rail >10%
Stainless 300/400
API seamless High-strength auto sheet Engineering steels Mild carbon steel long products Mild carbon steel flat products Mild auto sheet - non-exposed Mild auto sheet-exposed 0% 1% 2% 3%
19
China, Australia and South Africa are the main primary manganese producers
Primary Manganese output (Mt metal content)
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003
2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 jan-03 sep-04 may-06 jan-08 jul-10
USA
China
World
Australia 16%
20
China produces half the Mn alloys produced worldwide, and is a huge primary Mn importer
Manganese alloys production, Mt
16
12
Europe CIS
China
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
21
Quarterly Manganese alloy output is nearly back to its highest peak rate
Manganese alloy production, Mt
4
Ref FeMn
HC FeMn
2
SiMn
0 Q1 03
Q3 03
Q1 04
Q3 04
Q1 05
Q3 05
Q1 06
Q3 06
Q1 07
Q3 07
Q1 08
Q3 08
Q1 09
Q4 09
22
Relative to global steel production, Manganese specific consumption is stabilizing at 8 kg/ton of steel
Mn specific consumption, kg/t of steel
25
20
15
10
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
23
Agenda
Steel Nickel
Manganese
Chromium Molybdenum Niobium
24
Despite production downturn, Chromium is still traded at a high price, above $10 per kilogram
FeCr production, Mt
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CIS China America Europe Asia, others
12
4
Africa
jul-10
Kazakhstan 51%
25
Chromium prices have avoided excessive peaks, but are now better valued than Ni and Mn
Evolution of relative prices of Ni, FeMn and Cr
700
600
FeMn
500
400
300
Cr
200
100
Ni
0 jan-03
sep-03
may-04
jan-05
sep-05
may-06
jan-07
sep-07
may-08
jan-09
sep-09
jun-10
26
Agenda
Steel Nickel
Manganese
Chromium Molybdenum Niobium
27
200
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
2000
2003
2006
2009
jan-03
jan-04
jan-05
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jun-10
China 37%
Superalloys 5%
Cast Iron 6% Tool & Highspeed Steel 9% Construction Steel 35%
Chile 16%
28
Agenda
Steel Nickel
Manganese
Chromium Molybdenum Niobium
29
Niobium is mainly used to strengthen steel for pipes, construction and automotive applications
Estimated distribution of uses for Niobium (%)
Automotive 23%
30
ROW
30 20 10 0 1996 2001 2005 2009e 30 20 10 0 apr-06 feb-07 dec-07 oct-08 aug-09 jun-10
Brazil
300
Niobium
200
100
Steel
CBMM 80%
1996
2001
2005
2009e
31
32
Stainless steel accounts for 2 % of total steel and Duplex 1% of total stainless market
Comparison of Market sizes in 2009
Steel: 1227 Mt
33
30
25
ROW China
20
+37%
15
Asia, others
+3%
10
North America
0% 0%
Europe
0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009e
2010f
34
5,4
5,0
3,1 4
ROW
2 2,0 1,4
2,4
China
0 Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
35
500
400
Galvanized Steel
300
200
Aluminium
100
Carbon Steel
Source: ISSF, Plastics Europe, J.F. King, USGS, CHR Metals, CISA, COMC analysis
36
25
S200
20
+25,2% +4,6%
S400
15
+0,7%
10
S300
5
0 1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2009
37
S400 30%
38
China accounts for 34% of global consumption (compared to 36% of total production)
Stainless Steel consumption 2009 by region (%)
Total 25Mt
Others 8% North America 10% China 34%
Europe 23%
39
Chinese stainless steel consumption per capita already is comparable to Western Countries
Stainless Steel consumption by capita and region in 2009 (kg per capita)
6,8 6,1
5,1
3,5
2,2
0,8
Europe
China
North America
Asia, others
Others
World Average
40
Austenitic prices are still 40% lower than their maximum in July 2007
Austenitic stainless steel price in Europe (304 grade, $/t)
7000 CR 304 2B 2mm coil base, N.Europe domestic delivered ** 304 coil, Europe domestic 6000
5000
4000
3000
Alloy surcharge**
2000
1000
Base*
0 jan-03
sep-03
may-04
jan-05
sep-05
may-06
jan-07
sep-07
may-08
jan-09
sep-09
aug-10
41
2000
Alloy surcharge**
1500
1000
Base*
500
0 jan-03
sep-03
may-04
jan-05
sep-05
may-06
jan-07
sep-07
may-08
jan-09
sep-09
aug-10
42
Process industry, Building & Construction and White goods account for 83% of stainless usage worldwide
Distribution of stainless steel consumption by application in 2009 (%)
All grades included; 100% = 25 Mt
Others 6% Transport 11%
43
In 2009, Western Europe was a net exporter of stainless steel, while Asia had a neutral balance
Intra-Regional and Extra-Regional trade for Stainless Steel in 2009 (kt)
Western Europe
+940* 4200
90 420
NAFTA
-380*
130
E.Europe
490 70 80 160 -440* 100
270
650
3300
Asia
+20*
*Net Balance versus World
490
Source : ISSF, COMC analysis
44
In 2007, Asia was a net exporter while NAFTA was a major importer
Intra-Regional and Extra-Regional trade for Stainless Steel in 2007 (kt)
Western Europe
+950* 6000
130
NAFTA
-900*
170
670
E.Europe
540 90 120 360 -510* 100
360
760 3930
Asia
+560*
*Net Balance versus World
870
45
Western Europe
+1540* 6620
80 610
NAFTA
-780*
180
E.Europe
360 60 -170* 50 220
340
Asia
-580*
*Net Balance versus World
46
Europe is still a net exporter to China, but a net importer from South Korea
800
600
Taiwan
400
South Korea
200
China
0 2000 -200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-400
-600
Imports
-800
47
There are expansions projects in China, but also in Asia and in the US
Selection of Stainless steel new capacities
Country China China China China China China United State s Vietnam United State s Malaysia United State s India Swe den China
Location Bao ding, Sha nghai Fuan, Fujian Sha nghai Changshu, Jiangsu W uxi, Jia ngsu Huzhou, Zhejiang Duncan, SC Vung Tau, Dong Nai Ca lvert, AL Tanjung Langsat, Johor Tunica, MS Kalinganaga r, Orissa De gefors Da fenggang, Shanghai
Company Bao stee l Tsingshan Holding Group Tsingshan I&S CW SS Jia ngsu Sandeli Fengtai MK Metalfoils Posco VST Thysse nKrupp Bahru Stainle ss (JV Acerino x - Nisshin) W ilh. Schulz JSL O uto kum pu Yatai SG + Jinchang SSTM
Year 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010-2012/4 2010-2020 2011 2012 2014 ?
48
In the last decade, Ferritics have slightly increased their share, but not everywhere
Evolution of Ferritics market share, by region (% of production)
39,1 38,3 2000 2007 2009 32,3 29,8 26,4 23,4 20,0 26,0
27,1
25,1
28,4
28,4
Asia
World Total
49
Partly YES
YES
<<< Truck protector Grade STS 304 & STS 430 Competing material: aluminium, carbon steel
Motorcycle wheel rim >>> Grade 202 Competing material: carbon steel
Source : ISSF, COMC analysis
50
YES Widespread in India. (m ainly India & C hina) Suited fo r cutlery and cook ware/hollow-ware. Limited expe rience for white goods, Risk of crevice corrosion fo r 1% Ni grade . Significant pre sence in US in sinks, refrigerators with high-end 200 serie.
<<< Refrigerator Grade SUS 430 Competing material: colour carbon steel sheet Pots and pans >>> Grade S200 Competing material: carbon steel, ferritics, plastic
Source : ISSF, COMC analysis
51
Comments on serie 200 Substitution to 200 Serie s has already take n place in C hina, where 200 Serie s represent a m ajor share of stainless use in som e applications (virtually 100% of ornam ental tube s). Serie 200 is suite d for indoor a nd outdoor (noncoastal) applications. The y a re however not recom m ended fo r outdoo r applica tions nea r the coast.
<<< New ferritic lamp for Seoul Plaza Grade STS 439 Competing material: carbon steel Fasteners for solar panels >>> Duplex (23% CR, 4% Ni) EN 1.4362 blasted surface Competing material: grade 316L or 316TI, galvanised carbon steel
Source : ISSF, COMC analysis
52
He at ex changers, tubes for conveying fluids, pro ce ss tank s. Process industry & welded tube s For the food proce ss and the pharma ceutical industry, use of (Che m icals & pe trochem icals, oil & gas, pharm aceuticals, food & be vera ge) stainless steel is m andated for a ll food/m e dicine contact parts of the equipm ent. Usage of Serie 200 Partly YES Comments on serie 200 Usage of Serie 400 Comments on serie 400 (Ferritic) Ferritic is only used for a few applica tions (interna ls of distilla tion columns) and rem a ins m arginal.
Partly YES For chem icals, oil and gas, pulp and paper, nuclear industry serie 200 is not recom m ended. The se applica tions require a highe r corro sion resista nce. In sugar industry, the use of 200 se rie with 4% Ni seem s to be positive. In water treatm ent , electrica l m achiery/e quipm ent : very lim ited expe rience. Som e recent trials in foo d industry/sm all equipm ent in Euro pe.
<<< Large pipes for Oil & Gas exploration Grades 201, 202, 304, 309, 310, 316, 321
Evaporators for multi-effect distillation >>> Dual-duplex 2304 and 2205 Competing material: solid 316L
Source : ISSF, COMC analysis
53
Differences in grades among regions suggest further potential for better stainless steel solutions
Grade Mix by application in 2009; Europe, China and US (%)
5 30 15 70
75 95
70 25
White goods & household goods Catering Ind. tanks & Mec. equipment Building & Construction
85 30
Transport
Europe
25 25
30 30
5 15
5 30 10 50
80 50 40
60 45 1
Quality / Magnetism
Aesthetics Fashion Speculation (appetite for)
Source : Interviews, COMC analysis
10 45
5 10
10
75
85 95 90
45
24
54
Contacts
Laplace Conseil
Marcel Genet 23 avenue Victor Hugo 75116 Paris France
Tel : + 33 1 44 17 82 10
COMC
Cdric Orban 23 avenue Victor Hugo 75116 Paris France
Tel : + 33 1 44 17 82 10 Mob : + 33 6 89 15 35 82 cedric.orban@numericable.fr http://www.comcconseil.com
marcel.genet@laplaceconseil.com http://www.laplaceconseil.com
55