2554 Thailand Floods

Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction Planning

January 19, 2555

Massive flood in 66 provinces

Rapid Assessment
Selected study area in 26 provinces World Bank proposed Technical Assistance PDNA MOF set up the working group to coordinate with related agencies MOF and WB hosted the PDNA training to related agencies

What is a Rapid Assessment (PDNA)?

A Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA):

Government-led Assesses the damage to assets

Estimates the production losses and higher expenditures are incurred as result of disaster Impact assessment at macro and individual levels Offers recommendations on short, medium and long-term needs and strategies for reconstruction Provides this for each affected sector Advises on improved disaster risk reduction strategies (Built Back Better)

Benefits from Rapid Assessment

Strengthen capacity of public and private sector on assessing damage, loss and needs Understand the damages and losses by sector Findings will be utilized in developing recovery and reconstruction policies Recovery and reconstruction plan for medium and long term Develop disaster risk management for future disasters

Government-led
Study Team
Over 100 individuals

Over 40 Government Agencies

Ministry of Finance appointed the working group to coordinate and facilitate with related agencies : chaired by Deputy Permanent Secretary

International Organizations: World Bank, UN, JICA Academic institutions: TDRI & Universities

Methodology of Study
Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment (DALA) methodology
Destruction of physical assets

Damages

Occurs immediately and can be built back

Losses

Foregone production/income Higher expenditures Occurs over a period of time and cannot be recovered

Total Effect = Damage + Losses

Data Used
Public sector information based on Government data Surveys and interviews of the firms and in agriculture Field visits, satellite imagery, GIS data

Which sectors were covered?

4 Groups: Infrastructure Production Social Cross-cutting

Which sectors were covered?(Contd)

Infrastructure
1. Water Resources Management, Irrigation, Flood management 2. Transportation (Roads, Railways and Airport) 3. Telecommunication 4. Water and Sanitation (Water Supply, Solid Waste Management, Waste Water Treatment system) 5. Electricity

Which sectors were covered? (Contd)

Production 1. Agriculture (Fisheries, Livestock, crops) 2. Manufacturing 3. Financing, Banking, Risk Financing and Insurance 4. Tourism

Which sectors were covered?(Contd)

Social 1. Public Health (Hospitals, Clinics and Health centers) 2. Education 3. Housing 4. Cultural Heritage

Which sectors were covered?(Contd)

Cross-Cutting 1. Environment 2. Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change, Community Based Disaster Risk Management 3. Gender

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Results of PDNA 7-25 November 2011

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Damages and Losses are up to Bt1.4 trillion

Sub Sector Infrastructure Water Resources Management Transport Telecommunication Electricity Water Supply and Sanitation Production Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery Manufacturing Tourism Finance & Banking Social Health Education Housing Cultural Heritage Cross Cutting Environment TOTAL Damage Disaster Effects Losses 6,938 2,558 5,716 1,984 34,715 493,258 89,673 115,276 2,133 1,798 37,889 3,076 176 Total 8,715 30,476 3,848 8,901 5,481 40,381 1,007,139 94,808 115,276 3,817 14,849 83,797 7,505 551 8,715 23,538 1,290 3,186 3,497 5,666 513,881 5,134 1,684 13,051 45,908 4,429 375 8,715 30,326 1,597 5,385 5,481 403 74,076 1,627 10,614 3,041 212

Million Baht

Ownership Public Private 150 2,251 3,517

40,381 1,007,139 94,405 41,200 2,190 4,235 83,797 4,463 339

630,354

795,191

1,425,544

141,477

1,284,066

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Real GDP will fall and recover by 2013

Impact of Flood on Real GDP
Billion Baht
5,300 5,200 5,100 Real GDP Pre-Flood Real GDP + Net Loss + Reconstruction

5,000
4,900

4,800
4,700

4,600
Source: PDNA and NESDB Note: Pre-flood GDP are NESDBs figures * Net loss refers to production losses plus additional spending due to flooding

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GDP growth will be reduced by 1.1% in 2011 before recovering this year
Impact of Flood on Real GDP Growth
6.0 5.0

Pre-flood

Post-flood 5.1 4.9

Change
5.0

4.0
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0

4.0 2.9

4.1

0.9 0.2 -1.1 2011 2012 2013

Source: PDNA and NESDB

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Impact on Balance of Payments will be large in 2012 due to surge in imports

Billion US$
2011 Goods Exports Imports Services Current Account Balance % GDP Pre-Flood 226.7 205.3 -10.2 11.2 3.1 Change -7.9 0 -0.9 -8.8 Pre-Flood Post-Flood 218.8 205.3 -11.1 2.4 0.7 Change Post-Flood

2012 Goods Exports Imports Services Current Account Balance % GDP Note: Pre-flood (baseline) is from NESDB Exports are calculated from the export intensity of loss in outputs of the manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism sectors Imports are calculated from the import intensity of reconstruction of damages

265.1 245.1 -12.2 7.8 2.0

-1.9 7.5 -0.9 -10.3

263.2 252.6 -13.1 -2.5 -0.6

Pre-Flood 305.9 285.8 -14.3 5.8 1.4 Change 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Post-Flood 305.9 286.0 -14.3 5.6 1.3

2013 Goods Exports Imports Services Current Account Balance % GDP

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Deriving Needs from Damages and Losses

Damages

Reconstruction Strategy
Quality/Techno Improvement Mitigation Costs Relocation Costs Multi-Annual Inflation

Reconstruction Program
Financing Needs Reconstruction priorities: - Sector - Geographical - Population groups

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Recovery and Reconstruction Needs

Sub Sector
Infrastructure Water Resources Management Transport Telecommunication Electricity Water Supply and Sanitation Productive Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery Manufacturing Tourism Finance & Banking Social Health Social Education Housing Cultural Heritage Cross Cutting Environment TOTAL

~6 mths 3,023 6,866 1,675 899 2,997

3,425 172,640 4,343 170,140 1,128 13,300 8,045 3,657 6,183 3,724 402,045

Needs (Million Bt) 6-24 mths > 24 mths

Total 69,075 23,538 4,078 5,624 5,633

4,570 854,357 5,466 411,439 2,318 20,700 13,343 5,128 10,153 8,184 1,443,605

15,462 14,376 1,422 3,036 2,635

1,125 668,045 1,123 187,907 870 7,400 5,298 1,471 3,971 1,619 915,761

50,590 2,296 980 1,689 20 13,671 53,392 319 2,841 125,798

Thailand will need more than Bt1.4 trillion to rehabilitate for a stronger and more resilient economy

Public spending needs could reach Bt200 billion from FY2012-14 or up to 8.8% of revenues in FY2013
Rehabilitation Needs
Public
Bt389 billion
FY2012
2013 2014 % of Post flood Government Billion Bt Revenues

126.6
200.6 61.2

6.3
8.8 2.4

Private
Bt1,055 billion

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Recommendations from the study team

Water Resources and Flood Management Recommendations

Immediately rehabilitate and increase the drainage capacity of infrastructure and pumping stations Establish a Panel of Experts (National and International) to support the Strategic Committee on Water Management Reduce the maintenance gap of the vital hydraulic infrastructure assets Accelerate the implementation of the Royal Initiative for Flood Controls and Management considering social impacts and land use compensation Update JICAs Integrated Plan for Flood Mitigation in the Chao Praya River Basin (1999)

Agriculture Recommendations
Focus compensation on small and vulnerable farmers/tenants Ensure availability of good quality inputs (e.g. seeds, fertilizer) Accelerate the repair of machinery through mobilizing vocational students Extension staff to encourage farmers to clean up on-farm irrigation/drainage systems

Sustainable Reconstruction and Integrated Disaster Risk Management Recommendations

Enhance Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigations (DDPM) authority and capacity to manage future disasters Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM), training and experiences sharing domestically and internationally on preventive measures and adaptability to climate change Integrate early warning functions to look into multi-hazard scenarios Integrated Participatory Watershed Management Plan for all watersheds keeping in mind disaster risk and climate change projection

Social Protection Recommendations

Provide additional cash transfer to vulnerable groups (double pensions, disability and poverty transfers) Implement labor intensive public works programs using community participation and giving priority to vulnerable groups (including migrant workers) and marginalized groups

Provide ease of access for early return of migrants for quick start-up of industry
Provide working capital to small-businesses, farmers and fish farmers through loans and grants and re-structure credit for those using informal money lenders using existing community funds through SFIs Provide relevant employment and alternative livelihoods training

Manufacturing Recommendations
Establish credit line facility, especially for micro and small enterprises Rehabilitation of basic infrastructure (roads, bridges, energy, etc.) and establishment of flood protection infrastructure

Tourism Recommendations
Promote understanding of the current situation to encourage tourists back to Thailand Establish a crisis escrow account for rapid communication response to next crisis Improved access to finance for SMEs to improve cash flow through lean months Targeted festivals/events (CSR and groups) to improve Thai traveler confidence Destination re-launch through mega event (The World is our Guest)

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Thank You