Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: The Philippines Pivots Towards the United States Carlyle A. Thayer January 27, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] We are preparing an analytical piece on the subject of America's shift back to the AsiaPacificregion.Inconnectionwiththiswewouldlikeyourinputtothefollowing questions: Q1.HowwillthisU.S.strategylikelyimpacttheregionandwhyistheU.S.turning itsattentionagaintotheFarEast? ANSWER:ThenewU.S.militarystrategywillhavemultipleeffectsontheregion.In the first instance it will provide reassurance and a possible deterrence to Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. But it will also cause varying degrees of concernthatgreatpowerrivalryinbeinginjectedtotheregionatitsexpense. TheU.S.hasalwaysbeenfocusedontheAsiaPacificmilitarilyandeconomically. A look at trade and investment figures will bear this out. The absence of Secretary CondoleezaRicefromtwoASEANRegionalForummeetingsshouldnotdetractfrom thelargersustainedU.S.engagementwiththeregion. TheU.S.hasmadetheAsiaPacificitstopprioritytoreflectthefactthattheworld economic center of gravity now resides in this region. In addition, the U.S. has withdrawncombatforcesfromIraqandiswindingdownitspresenceinAfghanistan. This is taking place at a time of economic difficulty for the United States. In short, newgeoeconomicandstrategicconsiderationshavemotivatedtheU.S.togivethe AsiaPacificregionitspriorityattention. Q2.HowwillthisnewU.S.strategyplayout? ANSWER:TheU.S.willnotdramaticallyincreaseitsmilitarypresence.RathertheU.S. willrebalanceitsmilitaryforcestoSoutheastAsiaparticularlyandcallonitsallies and strategic partners to increase their participation alongside the U.S. in maintaining regional stability. The outlines are clear: Littoral Combat ships will be portedinSingapore,anincreasednumberofU.S.MarineswillrotatethroughDarwin in Australia and U.S. naval, air and combat forces will visit the Philippines more regularly. Q3.HowwillChinareactpoliticallyandmilitarily? ANSWER: China will continue to express its public misgivings about the new U.S. militarystrategy,andprivatelyitwillexertincreasedpressureonregionalstatesto

2 refrainfromincreasedparticipationwiththeU.S.Chinawillredoubleitsefforttouse allleversofnationalpowertoshapeaEastAsiaexclusivistsecurityarrangementthat marginalizes the role of the United States. At the last East Asia Summit China allocated a grant to support maritime security. Militarily, the Peoples Liberation Army will continue to modernize and transform. There will be increased navalair exercisesinandaroundtheSouthChinaSea. Atthesametime,however,ChinawillcontinuetoengagewiththeUnitedStatesto manage their bilateral relationship. They have nearly 50 highlevel bilateral mechanisms to manage their relations. China will continue to probe for U.S. weaknessandlackofresolvearisingfromAmericasdomesticproblems. Q4.HowdoyouthinkwillAsiancountries,includingtheASEAN,whicharepinned inthemiddleofthesetwogiantsbeaffectedandhowwill theypositionthemselves inthisnewgeopoliticalphase? ANSWER: Nearly all regional states that are not U.S. allies will come under cross cuttingpressuresintheirrelationswiththeU.S.andChina.Allcountrieswillfacethe conundrum ofhowto maintain goodrelationswit Washington andBeijingwithout havingtochoosesides.Intheimmediatefuture,regionalstateswillcomeunderU.S. pressuretoengagemorewiththeU.S.inamilitarysecuritysense.Thiswillresultin counterpressurefromChina.Chinawillalsostepupitsdefensecooperationwiththe region. Individual ASEAN states will struggle to align their national foreign policies withacommonASEANposition.ASEANcouldfractureintoopposingcampsbutitis more likely ASEAN will find it difficult to maintain its centrality in regional security affairs.ThestrongermembersofASEAN,suchasIndonesiaandVietnam,willtryto positionASEANbetweenthemajorpowers. Q5.IfASEANispolarizedbythisU.S.Pacificpivot,whowillgainadvantage,theUS orChina? ANSWER: ASEAN will be the loser because it will be unable to attain the twin objectives of upholding Southeast Asias regional autonomy and centrality in the regions security architecture. A polarized region will work to Chinas disadvantage becausemorecountriesarelikelytoalignwiththeU.S.insecuritytensionsrise.The U.S.gainsslightadvantagebecauseofstrongASEANisinthelongterminterestsof theU.S.AstrongASEANwillclaimfewerU.S.resources. Q6. How will this new U.S. strategy affect the issue of territorial disputes in the SouthChinaSea? ANSWER:ArebalancedU.S.militarypresencewillprovideaneffectivedeterrentto Chineseintimidationthroughphysicalconfrontationswithsmallerclaimantstatesin theSouthChinaSea.ButU.S.strategyisnotaimedatresolvingterritorialdisputesso muchascreatinganenvironmentinwhichdiplomaticnegotiationandinternational law provides the basis for a resolution of territorial disputes. Irrespective of what roletheU.S.plays,aresolutionofterritorialdisputesisunlikelytoberesolvedinthe shortterm.OneonlyhastomakereferencetothePhilippinesclaimtoSabah.But conflicting territorial claims need not stand in the way of developing cooperative relations.