Science and U.S.

Air Force Technology Headquarters for the Human Domain

Dr. Mark T. Maybury Chief S i i Chi f Scientist Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Pentagon, Washington D.C.

8 February 2011 Integrity - Service - Excellence

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DoD Roles Demand Human Domain Insight

Center of gravity of irregular conflict is non combatant non-combatant populations Building partnership capacity and postconflict recovery, reconstruction, and transition now key military roles Success in current and future operations depends on understanding and shaping social and cultural d h i i l d l l landscape including patterns of life

Center of Gravity: The Local Populace

CJ2 ISAF

Having focused the overwhelming majority of its collection efforts and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, the vast intelligence apparatus is unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which U.S. and allied forces operate and the people they seek to persuade. Ignorant of local economics and y g landowners, hazy about who the powerbrokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects and the levels of cooperation among villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers whether aid workers or Afghan soldiers U.S. intelligence officers and analysts can do little but shrug in response to high level decision-makers seeking the knowledge decision makers knowledge, analysis, and information they need to wage a successful counterinsurgency.
Major General Michael T. Flynn, Captain Matt Pottinger and Paul D. Batchelor Jan 2010 T Flynn Pottinger, D Batchelor, 2010. Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan.

HSCB Modeling Program Supports Administration Goals

Achieving prosperity and freedom around the world requires sound policy decisions and operations planning that support economic development and democratization which require state of the art models of human, social, and behavioral factors. Achieving peace and dignity requires addressing the challenges such as corruption, violent extremism, and the nuclear threat which requires the comprehensive focus on training, operations planning, influence analysis, and experimentation across the spectrum of basic research to fielded solutions. Achieving greater cooperation and understanding between A hi i a t ti d d t di b t nations is supported by the cross cultural modeling, training, and operations. The Administration s aim to roll back the specter of a warming Administrations roll planet can be supported by hybrid models developed in the program which could lead to more sophisticated models of human behavior (economic, social, behavioral) which could be leveraged with physical terrain and weather models to yield more sophisticated global warming models.
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National Security Alignment

HSCB Modeling Program aligns with priorities to address emerging challenges in key NSS, QDR, and QDDR areas:

Center for Strategic C C t f St t i Counterterrorism Communications t t i C i ti Succeed in counterinsurgency, stability, and counterterrorism operations

Increase counterinsurgency, stability operations, and counterterrorism competency and capacity in general purpose forces; Increase regional expertise for Afghanistan and Pakistan; a d c ease eg o a e pe t se o g a sta a d a sta ; and Strengthen key supporting capabilities for strategic communication. Enhance linguistic, regional, and cultural ability;

Build the security capacity of partner states

National Security Strategy (NSS)

Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)

Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR)

HSCB Modeling Program pp Supports Joint Needs

Army Human Terrain System Navy Expeditionary Combat Command S&T Strategic Plan Multi-lingual and multi-dialect, real-time two way audio/reader translator Civil Information Management for Civil Military Operations for Maritime Civil Affairs and Security Training (MCAST) Command Cultural and Language Proficiency Tools Influence and Effects Measurement Tools Data collection in existing and emergent operational environments that captures the operationally relevant socio-cultural information by non-subject matter experts Naval Irregular Warfare Office R&D Non lethal warn, deter, active denial Expose enemy networks, anticipate and influence behavior Enhance cultural and human terrain capabilities (methods to better understand partner perspectives and forge trust-based relationships) Marine C M i Corps Vision & Strategy 2025 Vi i St t Posture for Hybrid Threats in Complex Environment Lead Joint/Multinational Operations

USAF Language and Culture Skills

Cultural understanding is extremely important to our ability to affect positive outcomes. As we pursue our national interests in an interconnected, globalized world, we must be cognizant not only of socio-economic and political institutions; we must genuinely and increasingly appreciate linguistic, regional, and cultural constructs. Gen Schwartz Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz

Building partnerships and partner capacity designated an AF Service Core Function

DoD Language and Culture Summit Jan. 26, 2011, Alexandria, VA

Central to building partnerships and capacities is our ability to appreciate unfamiliar c lt res and to comm nicate and relate with nfamiliar cultures, communicate ith an ever-growing number of international partners. Budgetary pressures drive further need for collaboration

Language-Enabled Airman Program (LEAP) attracts, recruits, develops 460 linguistically capable, regionally savvy Airmen Regional Affairs Strategists (RAS): +54 in 2010 (to 195); +80 in training AF proud of cultural modeling (e.g., NOEM) in support of OSD
Source: http://www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-110126-045.pdf
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A Wicked Problem
Pluralistic
Little or no agreement as to common goals and objectives; decision makers focus on local concerns

De ecision Mak Environ king nment

Fluid, Evolving, Contested

Agreement as to the goals and objectives; decisions are made and implemented WRT Unitary common goals Behavior is regular, well understood and, to a large extent, predictable Relatively closed to the environment

Static, Uncontested

System Behavior
Linear
Information Systems Cognitive Systems

Not all behavior directly observable; not all interactions are well understood Do not necessarily follow predictable rules of b h i solutions to specific l f behavior; l ti t ifi problems may have totally unexpected consequences Interact with environment and evolve

Complex
Social Systems

Components not purposeful; exist only as part of larger system

Multiple stakeholders, Increasing complexity, Greater uncertainty

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The Human Dimension

We cant kill our way to victory
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates 2008 Secretary Gates,

Art. 68. Modern wars are not internecine wars, in which the killing of the enemy is the object object
President Abraham Lincoln, 1863

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.

Sun Tzu
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Long-Term Vision

Soldier as cultural chameleon, Actionable estimation of 2nd and 3rd order effects across the PMESII spectrum Reliable forecasting of regional stability on a short time scale Routine exploitation of social media for intelligence, understanding and engagement, training, i f sharing and t t i i info h i d collaboration Ability to track and shape viral communication across distributed dynamic social networks Data, technologies, and methods support a timely, relevant Data to Decisions process High fidelity social radar
PMESII = Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure and Information systems

Social Radar
Sonar Radar

Infrared

Social Radar
Strategic Communication Counter Insurgency Humanitarian Relief Economic Health

Missio ons

Military Religious

Political

90 80 70

Aum Shinrykio

1400 1200 1000

W o r d F r e q u en cy

60 50 40 30 400 20 10 200 0
Supreme Initiation (1988) Reality of the Declaring Salvation of Teachings of Beyond Life Bodhisattva Disaster Universe Myself Christ True Victors the Truth and Death Suttra (1994) Approaches (1991) (1992) (1992) (1992) (1993) (1995)

800 600

Collaborative Analysis/Assessment y T i Topics

Words Groups

Met thods

ANGER

FUTURE

Tools
A. Sampling/Calibration B. Topic Detect/Track C. Author Attribution D. Conversation Analysis E. S ti E Sentiment Analysis tA l i F. Summarization G. Modeling H. Geotemporal Visualization Geography Demography Econometrics

Sourc ces

Newspapers, Radio, TV

Polls

Surveillance

Social Radar: Indicators, Signatures and Sources

Military & Law Political
Quality of governance Corruption Balance of powers Electoral fraud

Economic
GDP

Social
Displacement

Health
Medical Access

Environment
Water/Air/Soil pollution Climate Natural disaster

Indicators

Violent/ Border Conflict C fli t Criminal Activity Human rights

Employment, Poverty Infrastructure

Education Quality Hunger, Dissatisfaction % homeless, % refugees % Graduates, Literacy rates

Medical Outcomes Mortality/ Disability Care Access, % Insured Absenteeism

Signatures

Violent incidents Public safety

Currency stability Consumer prices

CO2, Smog, water quality Temperature, precipitation

Trafficking, laundering

Grievances

Public Trust, Free media UN reports World Bank, Human RightsWatch

Land Rights grievances World Bank SARs, DEA Reports

Grievances

AIDS, Birth/ Mortality rates UN, NGOs World Health Organization

Emergency Preparedness satellites World Health Organization

Sources

UN reports Polls

UN, NGOs Newswire

Newswire

Pew/Gallup

Bloomberg

Social Media

ProMED

Environmental NGOs

Maybury, M. 2010. Social Radar. First International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) and Cross-Cultural Decision Making, 17-20 July, Intercontinental, Miami, FL

Notional Social Radar Desktop

Distribution of articles by topic

Topic coverage g over time

Heat Map of sentiment relative to targets

Highlighted sentimentbearing phrases in a document

Technologies, Methods, Models, and Tools in the Social Cultural Domain

Data & Theory Building Model & Software Development Model Building Resources & V&V Integration & Systems Development Training & Mission Rehearsal Operational Use & Transition Socio-Cultural Modeling of Effective Influence (AFRL) Cascading Effects Modeling (AFRL) ARMED SERVICES S Collective Behavior and Socio-Cultural Modeling (AFRL) Predicting Adversary Behavior (AFRL) HSCB Basic and Applied Research (ARI) Effects Measurement and Geospatial Services (USACE) Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (USMC) Program Manager Training Systems (USMC) Affordable Human Behavior Modeling (ONR) ONR HSCB Science (ONR) Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (DDR&E) Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (DDR&E) Strategic Multilayer Analysis (DDR&E) Minerva Research Initiative (OSD) OSD D Social Science Research & Analysis (USDI) Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (OSD) Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (DARPA) Applications of Social Computing (DARPA) Strategic Communication Assessment & Analysis (DARPA) Conflict Modeling, Planning & Outcomes Experimentation (DARPA) Socio Cultural Socio-Cultural Dynamics Initiative (DIA) OTHER DoD Behavioral/Social Sciences Research Program (DIA) Social-Science Research for Anticipation & Reduction of WMD (DTRA) ATHENA (TRISA) Human Terrain System (TRADOC) Social Dynamics Awareness (JIEDDO) Socio-Cultural Behavior R&D (COCOMs) ( ) Social/Behavioral Dimensions of Security, Conflict, Cooperation (NSF) OTHER Socio-Cultural Content in Language (IARPA) Reynard (IARPA)

AFRL: AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB; ARI: ARMY RESEARCH INSTITUTE; COCOMS: US COMBATANT COMMANDS; DARPA: DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY; DIA: DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY; DTRA: DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY; IARPA: INTELLIGENCE ADVANCE RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY; JIEDDO: JOINT IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES DEFEAT ORGANIZATION; NSF: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION; ONR: OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH; RESEARCH TRADOC: TRAINING AND DOCTRINE COMMAND; TRISA: TRADOC INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT ACTIVITY; USACE: ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS; USDI: UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR INTELLIGENCE

Sample Tools and Methods

Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM) Interagency Conflict Assessment Framework (ICAF) Se tu o Senturion National Operational Environment Model (NOEM) Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) MAP-HT Joint Capability Technology Demonstration Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments (MPICE)

Sample HSCB Program Efforts

Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG and NGO Efforts (eCross Culture) Semantic Wiki for Complex Ops (Milcord) Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency Conflict Repression and Social Strife Model (NSI, Inc) Simulation of Opium Economies (Los Alamos) p ( ) Modeling Strategic Contexts (Univ Chicago)

The Technical Cooperation Program ( (TTCP) Ad Hoc Study Group ) y p

Survey of national Comprehensive Approach (CA) development and associated S&T programs

Baseline Collection Instrument - AUS, CAN, UK, US (& NATO) National Understanding of CA; Experience in implementation of a CA; A Assessment and measurement within the context of the CA; t d t ithi th t t f th CA Ongoing S&T programs and tools to support, enable or evaluate a CA; Projected Scientific and Technical Activities supporting the CA; and, Evaluation of potential S&T areas or activities which might enable the CA CA.

TTCP S&T Program review

Relevance assessment of existing TTCP activities

Assessment of S&T areas (thrusts) to support a CA Analysis supported by

National workshops, subject matter experts, AHSG meetings / j g teleconferences, literature search, interviews, etc.

Science & Technology Areas of Opportunity

Multi-agency modeling, simulation, and experimentation to develop a CA operational concept (e.g. MNE 4, 5, 6) Tools, methods and techniques to support force synchronization Models and other tools for determining optimal multi-agency capabilities (e.g. PSOM) p ( g ) Development of organizational cultures and individual KSAs that support a CA to operations Analytical methods models and simulations that support analysis of methods, models, emergent and directed behaviour in CA networks Development of MOEs, and tools for assessing outcomes Methods to integrate and make sense of non-traditional data, and generally build domain intelligence to support a CA Decision support/COA analysis tools that leverage validated, social science-based models of socio-cultural behavior in regions of interest
MNE = Multinational Experiments MOE = Measures of Effectiveness COA = Course of Action

PSOM = Peace Support Operations Model KSA = Knowledge, Skill, and Ability

Persistent Modeling Challenges

A more complete basic research foundation grounded in inter-disciplinary social science Hybrid H b id models integrating different modeling d l i t ti diff t d li approaches, theories and granularity Transparency in models and tools Adapting classic V&V for appropriate classic application to socio-cultural behavior models Interfaces enabling use of models across military domains, environments, echelon levels y , , Processes, procedures and training to ensure appropriate use of models in support of robust decision making Policies, procedures, information systems, and requisite training to sustain HSCB modeling usage Methods for valid collection of quality socio-cultural data and systems in which that data can be readily accessed for use in computational modeling

Working with the warfighter provides clarity and specificity to these challenges

Some Air Force Contributions

Metropolitan Area Persistent Sensing Multi-INT Collection Multi-scale modeling and analysis
Project Liberty MC-12 (IMINT, SIGINT)

Very high precision, micro munitions that limit collateral damage Non lethal directed energy weapons

Airborne Laser Active Denial System

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmuyLIrSjxI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpjxjLRKqw8&feature=related

AFRL Social-Cultural (SC) g Modeling Trends

M Model Sy Compl ys lexity/ D Degree Mixed Init M tiative

Relative

Absolute

Higher res cultural models SC Integrated Model-based analysis & planning tool development Fill Science, Data Gaps Tailored application of T il d li ti f models, methods: - COA Analysis - PSYOP Planning - Di Discourse Analysis A l i 2000 Applied Research: - Precision Influence Analysis and Tactics - Anticipatory ISR

Performance models Low-res cultural models 1980 1990

2010

2020

Adaptive Control of ThoughtRational (ACT-R) State, Operator And Result (SOAR)

The National Operational Environment Model (NOEM)

The NOEM Model

Web-based M&S environment to: Forecast regional/national instability Identify leverage points & their relative sensitivities to stabilize a region or nation Forecast of potential ramifications of Blue action(s) (include unintended consequences in short & long term) on adversary and environment (local populace) Explore Epsteins model based on Collier and Hoeffler (2002) concept of greed and grievance
POC: Mr Brian Romano, Dr. John Salerno, AFRL/RIEF Romano Dr Salerno COMMANDS SUPPORTED: USSTRATCOM, AFRICOM, ACC PARTNERS: AFRL/RH, AFOSR, ITT, CUBRC, EBR, JHU, U Alabama, U Buffalo, RIT, Patch Plus Consultants, UC Berkeley,

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Micro Munition Vision

Focused kinetic effects for high lethality/low collateral damage Agile Maneuver for minimal time of flight (TOF) for fleeting/fleeing Time Sensitive Targets (TST) Adverse Weather Seeker Independently Targeted Munitions for selectable effects

Biologically-inspired Powered Biologically inspired Micro Munition Airframes Autonomous coop. attack Adaptable Kinetic Effects Difficult target access Extremely Agile Urban Maneuver Airspace deconfliction & Effects aiming and vertical target exclusion zone t t l i attack for element of compliance/trust surprise/minimal TOF for TST Selectable effects (single Adverse Weather Seeker covert attack ->synchronized Operating in the Loop Munitions g swarm attack) ) Control Micro Modular Mission Target(s) identification and Payloads munition(s) assignment Micro kinetic effects, e.g., Target exclusion zone adversary/electronics defeat identification for CAS Non kinetic effects for cyber Non-kinetic Automated airspace and CBRN disruption/defeat deconfliction Ambient Energy Harvest
Cleared for Public Release: 96ABW-2009-0425
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Rapidly Deliver Scalable Kinetic Effects to Difficult Targets

Active Denial
Joint Non-Lethal Weapons + AFRL p
System 1

Description
An extended range non-lethal weapon that uses Directed Energy ( ), ot p oject es (DE), not projectiles

System 2

Effect is produced by a 95GHz radio frequency in a highly directional beam that penetrates 1/64th inch deep of the skin surface of the target Platform (System 2) operated by single operator and supervisor with joystick control, bore-sighted day/night cameras, FLIR, through site video, and commanders station w/ wide view camera

Capabilities
Assists in preventing civilian casualties by providing a non-lethal capability with significant stand off range Deny access of target areas from ranges up to and beyond small arms range Assists in determining intent in Escalation-of-Force scenarios by forcibility dissuading targets from moving towards friendly positions

Key Points
Policy, LegalandArmsControlComplianceReviewsarecompleteand systemisapprovedforuse StrategicCommunication planiscompleteandreadyforimplementation Human effects very well understood after years of study and over 11,000 engagements Interoperablewithcurrentlyfieldedcommunicationssystems,jammers andcounterIEDdevices.

System 2 (shown above) is mounted on Heavy Meetscommandersintentsinreducingciviliancasualtiesandproviding Expanded Mobility Tactical Truck (HEMTT) with current escalationofforceoptions counter IED and communications systems. Operator 25 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmuyLIrSjxI station and key system components armor protected against small arms www.kirtland.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070404-026.pdf

Conclusion

War fighters require human domain insight Require rich data and valid but intuitive models and decision aids Service unique contributions can advance progress in current joint human terrain engagements, e.g., metropolitan area, multiengagements e g area INT persistent sensing, multi-scale modeling and analysis, high precision, micro munitions, non lethal directed energy weapons Multilingual, multimodal information extraction from M ltili l lti d l i f ti t ti f heterogeneous sources promises new opportunities for data collection, model validation, and COA assessment Development of social radar that exploit sentiment analysis and human terrain visualization can provide integrating metaphor for enhanced SA and decision support

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