Session 7 29.11.05 Day 2 Exploring Behaviour Over Time Objective To familiarise participants with using a Systems Thinking tool Participants will learn how to interpret and utilise for themselves a Systems Thinking tool called “Behaviour Over Time (BOT). The group will learn how to use BOT graphs to bring agreement in a team over expected and desired behaviour, to summarise a team’s knowledge of the relevant facts and to determine an appropriate time horizon for a goal to be achieved. 53Session 7: Exploring Behavior Over Time Systems Thinking for Transformational Change 2 cit 208-LeAD ienafont anasusanavinnsite “Lead KAS We Start By Graphing Behavior Over Time One major goal of systems thinking is to help you change some behavior in the world so you can attain your goal. | + Your goal can often be expressed as a change in some longer-term trend(s) with a “behavior-over-time” graph. A generic example is ‘shown below. | expected | future trend Text version: The Number of high i number of high ciedaed i particulate days has Parmmaate Gays | Observed past been rising over the per year behavior past twenty years. twill continue to tistory foture rise unless we can cause it to level out. 1980 1990 2000 2070 Years @ ‘Copitight, 2005 LEAD nternafenal and Sustahabiyinstie lead 2S 54A Behavior-over-time Graph Has Four Elements Expected | tuturetrend 4, Futures -- Your | Avariableor F~., ! Indicator-- | Numberof | Obsenedpast | | ached —_ Nh poree eet future that is canted, | Patilee expected, if Maybectther | SSPE" | there are no qualitative or | ! ee ' I made Cone ietHel 1980 19802000 2010 Years i | 2. Time horizon ~ Estimate of a spans past trends past behavior | Note Graphs typically and the future time oraverage of capture the trends, not year- in which you hope past data | by-year events. The lines to meet your goals are smooth, not bumpy. QD ‘Copyright, 2006- LEAD inmational and Sustsinsbitiynstivie lead GZ More on the Behavior Over Time Graph ¢ Might have qualitative variables: motivation (0-10) or quantitative variables: oil production (1000 barrels/yr) The goal could involve rapid or slow growth (or decline) or simply maintaining the present state. The goal is person dependent. What is desirable by you will probably be costly to some other actor. The time horizon depends on you and your goals; it is not a fixed, inherent part of the system. Different actors may bring a different time horizon to the same variable. ¢ Generally you will not have (or need) accurate data, your BOT will illustrate your general impressions. eae eee eee ap Copy 2005-LEA0 nnatonal ana Sustiabay nse lead 2S. 55