ResCap Mongolia 101 v2

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January 24 2011
Resource Investment Capital
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Mongolia 101
Initiating country coverage on one of the last remaining mining frontiers
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January 24 2011
ResCap Mongolia 101 One of the Last Remaining Mining Frontiers

Mongolia - One of the Key Global Economic and Mining Stories of 2011 Nestled between two political giants - China and Russia, Mongolia is a vastly undeveloped resource rich country on the brink of an economic transformation. Thanks to positive recent political and economic developments, Mongolia is set for spectacular growth which is becoming noticed globally. And backed by its resource rich landscape of world class deposits, Mongolia has been coined the Saudi Arabia of Coal with strong parallels to previous natural resource booms around the world. The Mongol Rally Has Literally Just Begun A rally to attract foreign investment, re-develop the stock exchange, re-urbanize much of the population into sustainable housing and reignite a process to unlock much of the countrys wealth in state owned mineral assets, has brought many foreigners rallying into Ulaanbaatar. The potential for discovery of more world class assets such as Oyu Tolgoi has unlocked a wave of financiers and geologists flooding into Mongolia. But quite simply the fascination of the unknown in a country not very well understood but linked with enormous potential has naturally played into human nature and curiosity root to many visitors arriving in Ulaanbaatar, financiers and tourists alike. Patriotism and History Underpinning Development Modern humans first arrived in Mongolia over 40,000 years ago and battled through waves of liberation, bloodless democratic revolution and one of the harshest climates on earth, now prospering through a young but developing freemarket economy. Mongolia is a nation proud to have partners but also very proud to remain unique and independent and central to success in Mongolia is prospering through strong, local partnerships. ResCap Mongolia 101 Country Guide 2011 will be a fascinating year and a potential turning point for Mongolia. As investors continue to ask the questions of how, what, where and when in Mongolia, ResCap has developed a user guide to the country. This ResCap Mongolia 101 is an account of Mongolia in a detailed handbook as part of our initiation of coverage on one of the last remaining mining frontiers.
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Abstract
Abstract
Mongolia's national identity has been dominated by the talismanic figure of Chinggis Khan. This legendary warrior-nomad conquered vast tracts of Central Asia in the 13th century to found the Mongol Empire, which remains the largest contiguous empire to have existed in the history of the world. He remains the subject of great national pride, and understanding the history, the culture, the laws, politics and the economy can not only help investors understand the nature of these proud, nomadic people and Mongolian society, but also help them better judge where to put capital to work in this large, resource-rich country.
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Executive Summary
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1.1
Executive Summary
History
Chinggis Khan founded the Mongol Empire in 1206. By the end of the XVII century, most of Mongolia had fallen under the rule of the Qing Dynasty. With the demise of the Qing Dynasty in 1911, Mongolia declared independence, but had to struggle until 1921 to firmly establish de facto independence from China. Mongolia came under strong Soviet influence in 1921. The Mongolian People's Republic was declared in 1924. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mongolia saw its own peaceful Democratic Revolution in early 1990.
1.2
Government Mongolia follows a parliamentary type of governance. The highest executive power is the Prime Minister. The President of Mongolia has limited powers but acts as the Head of State and Commander-in-Chief of Mongolias army. The biggest political parties are the Mongolian People's Party (MPP), formerly the Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP), and the Democratic Party (DP). Since the Democratic Revolution, there has been continuous replacement of governments. The current Prime Minister is Sukhbaataryn Batbold and the current President is Tsakhiagyn Elbegdorj. In 2008 a coalition government was formed between the MPP and DP, which facilitated the greatest advancements in the economy. The State Great Khural or the Parliament is the legislative authority of Mongolia and consists of a single chamber with 76 seats, led by the house Speaker.
1.3
Foreign Relations In developing its relations with other countries, Mongolia is guided by universally recognized principles and norms of international law as defined in the UN charter.
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Executive Summary
Mongolia has bilateral relations with 140 and diplomatic relations with 149 countries. Mongolia almost certainly has the strongest relationship with Russia. Russia helped Mongolia to ward off the Chinese invasion. In December 2010, Mongolia and Russia signed an agreement to develop the Dornod uranium deposit. Russia holds 190 reports on Mongolias 6 uranium fields, while Mongolia only has access to 34. As the Soviet Union had been Mongolias main ally and the most influential neighbouring power up until 1990, foreign relations between the PRC and Mongolia used to be predominantly determined by the PRC and USSR relations. With adoption of democracy and transition to a market economy, Mongolias relationships with China began to improve. Currently the PRC is the largest trading partner of Mongolia. Mongolia will soon have the capacity to supply 25-40 mtpa of coal to the PRC. The Peoples Republic of Mongolia established diplomatic relations with Japan in February 1972. The ties were strengthened after the Democratic Revolution in Mongolia. Japan has historically been the largest aid benefactor to Mongolia, until the US had approved a Millennium Challenge Compact aid worth $285 million in October 2007. 96% of Japans rare-earth metals are imported from China and the latter restricted their export quotas by 72% and 35% in H2 2010 and Q1 2011 respectively. Japanese geologists and scientists launched exploration of rareearth elements in Mongolia. The Peoples Republic of Mongolia established diplomatic relations with North Korea in October 1948. Mongolia is one of the few countries in the world that maintain warm relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Mongolia endeavours to maintain close relationships with European countries. In 1991, Mongolia signed an economic cooperation agreement with the UK, and investment promotion and protection agreements with France and Germany. Canada and Mongolia established bilateral ties in November 1973. Canadian FDI thus far has been mainly flowing to the mineral resource sector of Mongolia. Negotiations are ongoing on the signing of a foreign investment promotion and protection agreement (FIPA). The United States agency for International Development (USAID) has continuously been one of the key aid donors to Mongolia. In October 2007, the Mongolian government signed a Compact agreement with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for the receipt of a grant worth $285 million.
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Executive Summary
1.4 Geography and Climate Mongolia is ranked 19 in the world by country size after Iran. It covers 1.56 million square km. The climate is generally dry and the temperature varies significantly across the year, making the winters extremely cold and summers very warm.
th
1.5
Administrative Regions Mongolia is divided into 21 aimags. Each aimag is subdivided into a number of soums.
1.6
Economy Economic activity in Mongolia has historically been focused on agriculture and herding, but recent discoveries of mineral deposits have attracted large levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the mining sector. The global economic downturn in late 2008/early 2009 had a harsh impact on Mongolia. Mongolia is about to experience a period of remarkable growth. The IMF forecasts the real GDP growth to be over 25% in three years time driven by advancements in the mining sector. In 2010, the real GDP growth was 6.1%, nominal growth was 25.3% (GDP reaching $6.6 billion), general government budget showed a surplus of $611 million and the external trade deficit amounted to $378.7 million (both exports and imports were up around 53%) Inflation smoothed down to 13% in 2010 from the soaring 36% in August 2008. FDI into the country has been growing 30% annually and is expected to reach $11 billion in the next four years. In 2010, the total industrial output increased 10% to approximately $1.5 billion (at 2005 constant prices) compared to the previous year In December 2010, the MNT/USD rate gained in value 15% since January 2010, when it was 1,446, which made it the second best-performing currency against the dollar in 2010. By the end of December 2010 Mongolias official international reserves has exceeded $2.0 billion, growing 82.6% yoy.
1.7
Banking Sector The Mongolian financial sector consists of 14 commercial banks, 188 NBFIs and 207 S&C (saving and credit) Cooperatives.
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Executive Summary
The minimum capital requirement for commercial banks ordered by the Bank of Mongolia is MNT 8.0 billion ($6.4 million) In Q3 2010 non-performing loans with arrears in principals as percentage of total outstanding loans declined to 17% from 25% in November 2009. General levels of NPLs were considerably high throughout 2010. Real interest rates plummeted, resulting in negative returns, especially on depository accounts, due to inflationary pressure. Bank lending more concentrated, with around 50 largest borrowers accounting for approximately 30% of total loans or $690 million. MNT deposits continued to rise reaching $1.3 billion in mid 2010 (51% increase yoy), despite falling real interest rates on deposits, owing to the Deposit Guarantee Law and greater currency appreciation expectations. Nominal interest rates on lending and borrowing remained high as banks needed capital due to liquidity problems. Business activities increased in 2010, nevertheless, coping with the fundamental weaknesses of the banking sector in Mongolia remains a top priority for the officials in charge. Demand for credit will substantially increase in the coming five years as greater necessity for capital will spread across all sectors in the economy. Deposit Guarantee Law has been amended, the pledge is no longer unlimited
1.8
The Central Bank The Bank of Mongolia (BoM) is the central bank of Mongolia. It reports to Parliament and is independent from the Government. The BoMs aim is to insure the Tugriks stability in terms of external stability of the exchange rate and internal stability of the consumer price index.
1.9
Mongolian Taxation System The general rate of tax in Mongolia is 10% income tax for individuals and corporation earnings under MNT 3bn ($2.4m) and 25% on corporation earnings over MNT 3bn. VAT is 10%.
1.10 Mongolian Stock Exchange Established in 1991 as a result of the first round of privatisations of state properties, the MSE is the second smallest bourse in the world by market cap, yet the second best performing market in the world in 2010. In December 2010 the London Stock Exchange (LSE) has signed a contract agreement with
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Executive Summary
the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE). The LSE has been selected as the international partner to assist in reforming the MSE.
1.11 Mining The estimated value of total reserves in Mongolia is US$1.3 trillion. Approximately 1,170 mineral deposits and 7,654 occurrences have been identified to date. Occurrences include over 60 types of minerals, including copper, gold, coal, molybdenum, iron ore, uranium, tin, tungsten, silver, zinc and fluorspar. 15 deposits have been acknowledged by the government as strategically important. The mining sector accounts for 81% of exports, 32% of government revenue and 30% of GDP. Only around 27% of Mongolian land has been mapped to a scale of 1:50,000, therefore, the countrys resources remain largely untapped. There are numerous opportunities to invest in many large-scale investments, e.g. Tavan Tolgoi (TT) coal deposit. The government of Mongolia plans to attract up to US$25 billion in foreign investment for the mining projects in 2011-2015. Coal is now Mongolias number one export commodity. Total coal resources of Mongolia have been estimated at 152 billion tonnes. 2010 coal exports reached $877 million in value (16.6 million tonnes). By 2015 coal export to China is predicted to increase to 25-40 mtpa. Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit, which contains 6.4 billion tonnes of coking (25%) and thermal (75%) coal, is about to be privatised in Q1 2011. Copper was the former major export commodity of Mongolia. 2010 copper exports reached $771 million in value (586k tonnes), representing 26.4% of total exports. Oyu Tolgoi deposit contains 81 billion pounds of copper (37 million tonnes) and 46 million ounces of gold (1,431 tonnes). Initial production at Oyu Tolgoi mine is expected in Q3 2012 and commercial production in 2013. Mongolia started producing iron ore in 2007. 2010 iron ore exports reached $251 million in value (3.5 million tonnes). Iron ore exports now account for 8.7% of total exports. Mongolia was officially recognised as an oil producing country in 2008. Oil sector remains significantly under-explored. 2010 crude exports reached $155 million in value (2.0 million barrels). Marubeni Corporation in partnership with Toyo Engineering Corporation are about to construct a $600 million oil refinery in Mongolia. Russia estimated the Mongolian uranium reserves at 30 thousand tonnes while the Mongolian government identifies the resources at 62,000 tonnes.
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Mongolia has not started exporting uranium yet. Measures on environmental protection and rehabilitation issues have been strengthened in Mongolia recently. The Law on Minerals has been amended and now includes progressively increasing royalties on 23 types of minerals. If a deposit is of strategic importance, the government in entitled to take up 34%-50% of the ownership rights. The Foreign Investment Law of Mongolia gives similarly positive treatment to both foreign and domestic investors with regard to control, use and removal of their investments.
1.12 Agriculture Agriculture in Mongolia is focused on animal husbandry, only 1% of Mongolias arable land is cultivated with crops. Livestock accounts for over 80% of agricultural production. In 2010 the number of total livestock reached 33 million (human population of Mongolia = 2.8 million). 11 million heads were lost due to 2010 dzud. In 2010 harvest production reached 1.7 million tonnes. Mongolia has recently become self-sufficient in grain and potatoes.
1.13 Real Estate The capacity to build residential properties in Ulaanbaatar is enormous, especially considering the increasing number of expats and foreign executives arriving in Mongolia. The population of Ulaanbaatar increased 30% to 1.1 million in the three years from 2007. More than half of Ulaanbaatar residents live in ger districts surrounding the city. The government is working on a project to replace the ger districts with proper residential complexes. In October 2010, the authorities announced that 0.07 Ha of land in ger districts can be exchanged for two-room apartments. The government plans to construct 100,000 apartments for lower-income people in Ulaanbaatar and provincial centres for an estimated budget of $6.2 billion. Construction and installation works implemented in Mongolia throughout 2010 grew 25.6% from 2009 and reached around $281 million in total.
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Executive Summary
1.14 Infrastructure Mongolias infrastructure, or lack of it, is the most serious inhibitor to developing its resource wealth. However, there are many ambitious projects and foreign investment commitments to improve the situation. Mongolias main rail line is the Trans-Mongolian railway (2,215 km in length). 96.7% of roads in Mongolia are unpaved. Chinggis Khaan Airport, located 15 km from Ulaanbaatar, is the one and only international airport of Mongolia. Due to dry weather conditions, water is a scarce resource in Mongolia. Production levels of all sorts of mines heavily depend on water supply. In late 2010, the Oyu Tolgoi team discovered an aquifer, capable of ensuring 40 years of water supply to the mine. Most large-scale deposits in Mongolia are located in isolated areas, with very limited infrastructure. The 2010 Global Competitiveness Report ranked Mongolia last for the quality of overall infrastructure out of 134 countries. Mining investments are to total $13 billion in the coming years, of which $1.3 billion is to be spent on mining services. Infrastructure development requires around $5.2 billion in investments through 2011-2020. The government is planning to build 2,600 km of paved East-West road and 5,600 km of new railroads. The railway infrastructure plan has considered all major mineral deposits and around $3.0 billion is to be spent on the first phase. A $10 billion industrial complex in Sainshand is being built to increase the value of mineral reserves of Mongolia. The construction of Sainshand Park and the associated industrialisation could increase Mongolian GDP to $41 billion over the next 11 years. Mongolia Mining Corporation (MMC) has obtained all necessary permissions to build a 240 km railway with 15mtpa capacity from its Ukhaa Khudag deposit located in the Tavan Tolgoi region south to the Mongolian-Chinese border. MMC is also constructing a 245 km paved road with 18mtpa capacity from its Ukhaa Khudag deposit south to the Mongolian-Chinese border, which will come into operation in Q1 2011. Mongolian authorities chose to build a new railroad in 2011 linking Mongolias largest coal deposit Tavan Tolgoi with Mongolias domestic rail network, rather than establishing a direct route straight to China from TT. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is funding a regional logistics development project at Zamiin-Uud with $45 million in loans and grants, which will create a new terminal with road and rail links.
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Executive Summary
The Hong Kong market is expected to be opened up to Mongolia on a regular basis via direct flights starting in April 2011. Currently, the direct access to Ulaanbaatar from major global financial centres is unavailable. Mongolias electricity deficit is expected to reach 500 MW by 2013.
1.15 Privatisation of State Properties 2011-2012 privatisation plans will allow international investors to gain access not only to some of the world's largest unexploited mineral resources, but also to the non-resource sector boom of the fastest growing economy in the world. State properties to be privatised in 2011-2012: Baganuur coal deposit (1.3billion tonnes of lignite coal) Erdenet Power Plant and TPP-3 (two out of the 5 power plants making up the Central Electricity System, which covers the most populated area of the country, including Ulaanbaatar) MIAT or Mongolian Airlines (the largest carrier in the country which operates flights to Beijing, Berlin, Moscow, Seoul, Tokyo and Irkutsk) Mongolian Stock Exchange Mongolian Telecom Company (a national telecommunications company offering variety of services) Strategic deposits (the government will bundle in groups the state owned shares from the 15 strategic deposits by types of minerals and certain percentages of those will be sold through domestic and international stock exchanges) ... and more In December 2010, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) signed a contract agreement with the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) for the latters restructuring. Tavan Tolgois Eastern Block is to be privatised to domestic investors in Q1 2011. The tender for strategic investors for Tavan Tolgois Western Block has been th officially announced and closed on 17 January at 16:00. The tender for contract miners for Tavan Tolgois Eastern Block has been th officially announced and closes on the 27 January 2011. Chinas Shenhua Energy Co, Peabody Energy Corp from the US, a Russian consortium led by Gazprom, a consortium of four Japanese trading houses, including, Itochu Corp, Sumitomo Corp, Sojitz Corp and Marubeni Corp, a consortium of 10 South Korean companies, including Poco and Korea Electric Power Corp, Anglo-Australian mining companies Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, Brazils Vale, Indias International Coal Ventures Pvt, a joint venture of five state-run companies and others have expressed their interest to participate in Tavan Tolgoi bid.
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Executive Summary
In December 2010 an agreement was signed between the Mongolian and Russian Prime Minsters specifying the business plan for the Dornod Uranium JV. Two existing Mongolian-Russian joint ventures, Erdenet and MongolRosTsvetMet, may soon merge and market their stock.
1.16 Demographics Mongolias population is 2.8 million people (59% below the age of 30, 27% below the age of 14). The unemployment rate in Mongolia has been lower than 4% since 2002. During the peak of the economic crisis (2009) it reached 13% and now is returning to its regular levels. 40% of Mongolias population live in Ulaanbaatar, 20% in other urban areas, the remaining 40% in rural areas. 30% are herders. 85% of Mongolias population consist of ethnic Mongolians, out of which 90% consist of Khalkha Mongols.
1.17 Languages The official language in the country is Khalkha Mongolian. Many Mongolians have a good grasp of Russian and English. Other widely spoken languages are Chinese, Korean, Japanese, French, Spanish and Italian.
1.18 Religion 50% of Mongolia's population follow the Tibetan Buddhism, 40% are listed as having no religion, 6% are Shamanist, Baha'i and Christian, and 4% are Muslims.
1.19 Equity Research Stock information of top 10 performers on the MSE (+1 mining company) is provided at the end of this report.
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Mongolia Key Statistics

Mongolia: Key Indicators 2003 Output, Employment and Prices Real GDP (%yoy change) Industrial production index (% yoy change) Unemployment (%) Consumer price index (% yoy change) Public Sector Government balance (% of GDP) Non-mining balance (% of GDP) Public Sector Debt Foreign Trade, BOP and External Trade balance ($mn) Export of goods ($mn) (% yoy change) Copper exports (% yoy change) Imports of goods ($mn) (% yoy change) Current account balance ($mn) (% of GDP) Foreign direct investment ($mn) External debt (% of GDP)
2 1
2004 10.6 3.6 10.9 -1.8 -5.8 1.4 -99.2 872.0 39.0 971.3 17.5 24.1 1.3 128.9 76.0 208.0 2.0 25.8 15.8 1209.0 93.9 -0.4 120.8 2152.0 1814.0 722.0
Mongolia Key Statistics
2005 7.3 3.3 9.6 2.6 -1.3 0.1 -99.5 1066.0 22.2 14.7 1021.1 16.0 29.7 1.3 257.6 61.2 333.0 2.6 18.8 3.7 1221.0 99.6 6.1 203.6 2780.0 2307.0 900.0
2006 8.6 100.0 3.2 5.6 3.3 -7.3 1.0 136.2 1542.0 44.8 94.8 1485.6 25.4 221.6 7.0 289.6 45.1 718.0 4.3 -3.1 5.1 1165.0 102.8 3.2 382.0 3715.0 3156.0 1214.0
2007 10.2 110.4 10.4 2.8 14.1 2.8 -13.4 0.5 -52.4 1889.0 22.4 27.7 2117.3 42.5 264.8 6.7 360.0 40.1 1001.0 3.8 78.4 8.4 1170.0 104.8 1.9 2048.0 4600.0 3930.0 1491.0
2008 8.9 113.4 2.8 2.8 23.2 -5.0 -15.1 0.0 -613.0 2534.0 34.0 12.1 3147.0 70.8 -722.0 -14.0 836.0 33.7 658.0 3.0 52.5 9.8 1267.5 124.4 18.7 1181.6 6020.0 5258.0 1921.0
2009 -1.6 109.6 -3.3 3.3 11.2 -5.4 -12.9 3.7 -195.0 1875.0 -26.0 39.9 2070.0 -41.1 -411.0 -9.8 496.0 47.1 1328.0 4.3 -7.6 1442.8 102.4 -17.7 6055.0 4203.0 1551.0
2010 (f) 8.5 12.0 -2.2 -11.2 19.3 -639.0 2446.0 30.4 40.4 3085.0 30.5 -805.0 -14.0 422.0 39.0 1599.0 3.0 47.1 7911.0 -
7.0 3.4 4.6 -3.7 -5.9 3.1 -199.6 627.0 19.7 826.9 21.6 -102.4 -7.1 131.5 92.6 204.0 2.4 157.3
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Foreign exchange reserves, gross ($mn) In month of imports of g&s Financial markets Domestic credit (% yoy change) Short-term interest rate (% per annum) Exchange rate (MNT/USD) Real effective exchange rate (2006=100) (% yoy change) Stock market index (2000=100) Memo: Nominal GDP (MNT bn) Nominal GDP ($ mn) GDP per capita ($)
2
1168.0
94.2 -4.8
151.5 1660.0 1448.0 583.0
Notes: 1. Non-mining balance excludes revenues from corporate income tax and dividends from mining companies, the Windfall Profit Tax and royalties. 2. On public and publicly guaranteed debt. 3. Yield of 14-day bills until 2006 and of 7-day bills for 2007. 4. Increase is appreciation. 5. Top-20 index, end of year, index=100 in Dec 2000. Source: IMF and World Bank
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Contents
3 Contents
ABSTRACT 3 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................... 4

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 HISTORY................................................................................................ 4 GOVERNMENT........................................................................................ 4 FOREIGN RELATIONS................................................................................ 4 GEOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE ....................................................................... 6 ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS........................................................................ 6 ECONOMY ............................................................................................. 6 BANKING SECTOR.................................................................................... 6 THE CENTRAL BANK ................................................................................ 7 MONGOLIAN TAXATION SYSTEM ................................................................ 7 MONGOLIAN STOCK EXCHANGE................................................................. 7 MINING ................................................................................................ 8 AGRICULTURE ........................................................................................ 9 REAL ESTATE .......................................................................................... 9 INFRASTRUCTURE .................................................................................. 10 PRIVATISATION OF STATE PROPERTIES ....................................................... 11 DEMOGRAPHICS ................................................................................... 12 LANGUAGES ......................................................................................... 12 RELIGION ............................................................................................ 12 EQUITY RESEARCH................................................................................. 12
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4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8
MONGOLIA KEY STATISTICS ................................................. 13 CONTENTS ...................................................................... 14 HISTORY OF MONGOLIA ..................................................... 18

PRE-HISTORY ....................................................................................... 18 EARLY HISTORY .................................................................................... 19 MONGOL EMPIRE ................................................................................. 19 POST-IMPERIAL PERIOD ......................................................................... 19 UNDER THE QING ................................................................................. 20 INDEPENDENCE..................................................................................... 20 MONGOLIAN PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC............................................................. 21 DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION ..................................................................... 21
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5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
GOVERNMENT ................................................................. 22
POLITICAL SYSTEM AND RECENT HISTORY .................................................. 22 PRESIDENT........................................................................................... 23 THE STATE GREAT KHURAL ..................................................................... 23 MONGOLIA PEOPLES PARTY AND DEMOCRATIC PARTY ................................ 23 PRIME MINISTER AND THE CABINET .......................................................... 23
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6.1 6.1.1 6.2
FOREIGN RELATIONS .......................................................... 24

AFRICA ............................................................................................... 24 EGYPT................................................................................................. 24 ASIA ................................................................................................... 25
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6.2.1 6.2.2 6.2.3 6.2.4 6.3 6.3.1 6.4 6.4.1 6.4.2 RUSSIA ............................................................................................... 25 PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC) ........................................................ 26 JAPAN................................................................................................. 27 NORTH KOREA ..................................................................................... 29 EUROPE .............................................................................................. 29 UNITED KINGDOM ................................................................................ 29 NORTH AMERICA .................................................................................. 30 CANADA.............................................................................................. 30 USA................................................................................................... 31
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9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7.1 9.7.2 9.8 9.9 9.10
GEOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE .................................................. 33 ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS .................................................. 34 ECONOMY....................................................................... 35

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008/2009.......................................... 36 CURRENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY ........................................................... 36 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ................................................................... 38 MONEY SUPPLY .................................................................................... 39 BUDGET .............................................................................................. 40 INFLATION ........................................................................................... 42 TRADE ................................................................................................ 43 EXPORTS ............................................................................................. 44 IMPORTS ............................................................................................. 45 IMPLEMENTED POLICIES ......................................................................... 46 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ................................................................. 47 CURRENCY ........................................................................................... 47
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10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4.1 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8.1 10.9 10.10
BANKING SECTOR ............................................................. 48

BACKGROUND ...................................................................................... 48 BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE DURING 2008/2009 FINANCIAL CRISIS ........ 49 STRENGTHENING OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM .............................................. 50 DEPOSITS AND LOANS ............................................................................ 51 NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLS) .......................................................... 53 BANKING INTEREST RATES ...................................................................... 53 BANK ASSET QUALITY ............................................................................ 55 BANKING SYSTEM CAPITALISATION ........................................................... 57 BANKING LAW OF MONGOLIA (2010) ...................................................... 57 SUMMARY OF THE AMMENDED BANKING LAW ........................................... 57 BANKING SECTOR 2010 SUMMARY .......................................................... 59 BANKING SECTOR PROSPECTS .................................................................. 59
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11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3.1 11.4
THE CENTRAL BANK........................................................... 61

BANK OF MONGOLIA MONETARY POLICY .................................................. 61 BANK OF MONGOLIA POLICY RATE ........................................................... 61 CENTRAL BANKS NON-STANDING FACILITIES .............................................. 62 COLLATERALIZED LOAN ........................................................................... 62 OBJECTIVES OF MONETARY POLICY............................................................ 63
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11.5 11.5.1 11.5.2 11.6 BANK OF MONGOLIA STANDING FACILITIES ................................................ 63 OVERNIGHT LOAN ................................................................................. 63 REPO FINANCING .................................................................................. 63 CENTRAL BANK BOND RATE .................................................................... 64
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12.1 12.1.1 12.2 12.2.1 12.2.2 12.2.3 12.3 12.3.1 12.3.2 12.4 12.4.1
MONGOLIAN TAXATION SYSTEM........................................... 65

GENERAL TAXATION .............................................................................. 65 TAXPAYERS .......................................................................................... 65 CORPORATE INCOME TAX ....................................................................... 65 TAXPAYERS .......................................................................................... 65 TAX RATE ............................................................................................ 66 TAX EXEMPTION.................................................................................... 66 PERSONAL INCOME TAX LAW OF MONGOLIA .............................................. 67 TAXPAYER............................................................................................ 67 TAX RATE AND AMOUNT ......................................................................... 67 VALUE ADDED TAX (VAT) ...................................................................... 68 SCOPE OF VAT ..................................................................................... 68
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13.1 13.2
MONGOLIAN STOCK EXCHANGE ............................................ 69

OVERVIEW........................................................................................... 69 THE SECOND BEST PERFORMING MARKET IN THE WORLD ............................... 71
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14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4.1 14.5 14.5.1 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9.1 14.9.2 14.9.3 14.9.4
MINING ......................................................................... 73
MINING SECTOR ................................................................................... 73 EXPLORATION AND GEOLOGICAL MAPPING ................................................ 76 LICENSES ............................................................................................. 77 COAL .................................................................................................. 78 TAVAN TOLGOI ..................................................................................... 81 COPPER/GOLD ..................................................................................... 83 OYU TOLGOI (COPPER-GOLD, MONGOLIA)................................................. 84 IRON ORE ............................................................................................ 85 OIL .................................................................................................... 87 URANIUM............................................................................................ 89 MINERALS LAWS AND TAXES ................................................................... 90 STRATEGICALLY SIGNIFICANT DEPOSITS ..................................................... 90 OVERVIEW OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT........................................................ 93 FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN MINING ............................................................ 94 PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES ON MINERALS ..................................................... 97
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15.1
AGRICULTURE .................................................................. 99
DZUD ............................................................................................... 100
16 17
17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4
REAL ESTATE ................................................................. 101 INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................ 106

RAILWAY ........................................................................................... 106 ROADS .............................................................................................. 107 AIRPORTS .......................................................................................... 107 WATER ............................................................................................. 107
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Contents
17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 MINING BOOM AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ................................ 108 INDUSTRIAL PARK IN SAINSHAND ........................................................... 112 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ....................................................................... 113 MINING BOOM AND AIR INDUSTRY ......................................................... 115
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18.1 18.1.1 18.1.2 18.1.3 18.1.4
PRIVATISATION OF STATE PROPERTIES .................................. 117

2011-2012 PRIVATISATION STRATEGY ................................................... 117 NEAR TERM PRIVATISTAION TARGETS ...................................................... 117 DETAILED MAPS OF PLANNED PRIVATISATIONS .......................................... 120 STATE PROPERTY COMMITTE................................................................. 124 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ....................................................................... 125
19 20 21 1
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11
DEMOGRAPHICS ............................................................. 127 LANGUAGES .................................................................. 129 RELIGION ...................................................................... 130 EQUITY RESEARCH........................................................... 131
TAVAN TOLGOI ................................................................................... 131 BAGANUUR........................................................................................ 132 SHIVEE OVOO .................................................................................... 133 APU ................................................................................................ 134 MONGOLIA TELECOM .......................................................................... 135 SHARYN GOL...................................................................................... 136 GOBI ................................................................................................ 137 BDSEC.............................................................................................. 138 ADUUNCHULUUN ................................................................................ 139 MONGOLIA DEVELOPMENT RESOURCES .................................................. 140 MOGOIN GOL .................................................................................... 141
2 3 4
DISCLAIMERS ................................................................. 142 REFERENCES .................................................................. 143 CONTACTS .................................................................... 144
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History of Mongolia
CHINGGIS KHAN
History of Mongolia
Horse nomadism, Chinggis Kahn, Qing dynasty, Russian liberation, communism, bloodless democratic revolution, free market economy
1206: The Mongol Empire 1921: Independence 1945: International recognition 1924: Soviet influence, socialism 1990: Democratic revolution
The Mongol Empire was founded by Chinggis Khan in 1206. Following the collapse of the Yuan Dynasty, the Mongols returned to previous behaviour of constant internal conflict and raids on the Chinese borderlands. Mongolia came under the influence of Tibetan Buddhism in the 16th and 17th centuries, but by the end of the 17th century, most of Mongolia had fallen under the rule of the Qing Dynasty. With the demise of the Qing Dynasty in 1911, Mongolia declared independence, but had to struggle until 1921 to firmly establish de facto independence from China, and only gained international recognition of it in 1945. Afterwards, Mongolia came under strong Soviet influence; in 1924, the Mongolian People's Republic was declared, and Mongolian politics began to follow the same patterns as that of the Soviet Union at the time. After the breakdown of communist regimes in Eastern Europe in late 1989, Mongolia saw its own peaceful Democratic Revolution in early 1990, which led to a multi-party system, a new constitution in 1992, and the on-going transition to a market economy.
4.1 Modern humans reached Mongolia 40,000 years ago
Pre-History
Homo erectus inhabited Mongolia 800,000 years ago, whereas modern humans reached Mongolia approximately 40,000 years ago during the Upper Paleolithic period. Neolithic agricultural settlements (c. 5500-3500 BC) preceded the introduction of horse-riding nomadism, and became the dominant lifestyle during the Copper and Bronze Age (3500-2500 BC). The wheeled vehicles found in burials have been dated to before 2200 BC. Pastoral nomadism and metalworking became more and more developed with the Okunev Culture (2nd millenium BC), Andronovo culture (2300-1000 BC) and Karasuk culture (1500-300 BC), culminating with the Iron Age Xiongnu Empire in 209 BC. Tocharians (Yuezhi) and Scythians inhabited western Mongolia during the Bronze Age. The mummy of a 30-40 year old, male Scythian warrior with blond hair is believed to be 2,500 years old, and was found in the Altai, Mongolia. As horse nomadism was introduced into Mongolia the political center of the Eurasian Steppe shifted with it to Mongolia, where it remained until the 18th century CE.
5500-3500 BC: horse-riding nomadism became dominant lifestyle
2300-1000 BC: development of pastoral nomadism and metalworking
Cultivation of crops continued since the Neolithic period, but has always remained small-scale compared to pastoral nomadism, which was first introduced from the West.
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4.2 The Modu Shanyu confederation forced the Qin Dynasty to construct the Great Wall of China Early History
Since pre-historic times, Mongolia has been inhabited by nomads who occasionally formed great confederations that rose to prominence. The first of these, the Xiongnu, were brought together to form a confederation by Modu Shanyu in 209 BC. They soon emerged as the greatest threat to the Qin Dynasty, forcing the latter to construct the Great Wall of China. During Marshal Meng Tian's tenure it was guarded by up to 300,000 soldiers in order to defend against the destructive Xiongnu raids. The Xiongnu empire (209 BC-93 AD) was superseded by the Mongolic Xianbei empire (93-234) which ruled over a larger area than present-day Mongolia. The Mongolic Rouran Khaganate (330-555) ruled a massive empire before being defeated by the Gokturks (555-745) whose empire was even larger. They were followed by the Uyghur Khaganate (745-840) who were in turn defeated by the Kyrgyz. During the Liao Dynasty (907-1125) the Mongolic Khitans ruled Mongolia after which the Khamag Mongol (1125-1206) rose to prominence.
Previous monarchs: 209 BC-93 AD: Xiongnu 93-234: Mongolic Xianbei 330-555: Mongolic Rouran Khaganate 555-745: Gokturks 745-840: Uyghur Khaganate 907-1125: Mongolic Khitans 1125-1206: Khamag Mongol
4.3 1206: Chinggis Khan assembled the Mongol Empire The Mongol Empire - the largest contiguous land empire in the history of the world: - 33 million sq. km - 100 million people 1368: Collapse of the Mongol Empire
Mongol Empire
During the chaos of the late 12th century, a chieftain named Temjin united the Mongol tribes between the Altai Mountains and Manchuria. He took the title Chinggis Khan In 1206, and waged a series of brutal and ferocious military campaigns, sweeping through much of Asia, and forming the largest contiguous land empire in the history of the world. Under his successors it stretched from present-day Poland in the west to Korea in the east, and from Siberia in the north to the Gulf of Oman and Vietnam in the south, covering 13 million square miles (or 22% of the Earth's total land area) and included a population of over 100 million people. Following the death of Chinggis Kahn, the empire was subdivided into four kingdoms (Khanates), which eventually became semi-independent after Mngke's death in 1259. One of the khanates, the "Great Khaanate", included the Mongol homeland and China, and became the Yuan Dynasty under Chinggis Khans Grandson, Kublai Khan. His capital was in present day Beijing, but after a century the Yuan was superseded by the Ming Dynasty in 1368, with the Mongol court fleeing north. As the Ming armies pursued the Mongols into their homeland, they sacked the Mongol capital of Karakorum, among other cities, throwing Mongolia back into anarchy and wiping out cultural progress made by the Mongolians during their imperial period.
4.4 Following centuries: violent power struggles between various fractions
Post-Imperial Period
The centuries that followed were marked by violent power struggles between various factions and there were numerous Chinese invasions. The Oirads, under Esen Tayisi, gained the upper hand in the early 15th century and raided China in 1449 in a conflict over Esen's right to pay tribute, and in the process captured the
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16 century: Mongolia reunited
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Chinese Emperor. However, the Borjigids were recovered when Esen was murdered in 1454. Batumongke Dayan Khan reunited the entire Mongols under the Chinggisids in the early 16th century and in 1557, Altan Khan of the Tmed, Grandson of Batumngke, founded Hohhot. His meeting with the Dalai Lama in 1578 sparked the second introduction of Tibetan Buddhism to Mongolia. Abtai Khan converted to buddhism in 1585 and founded the Erdene Zuu monastery.
1578: Second introduction of Tibetan Buddhism
4.5 Ligden Khan: the last Mongol Khan
Under the Qing
1636: most Inner Mongolian tribes submitted to Manchu
1691: Khalkha Mongol submitted to Qing Empire
Ligden Khan was the last Mongol Khan (early 17th century). He alienated most of the Mongol tribes and got into conflicts with the Manchu over the looting of Chinese cities. He died on his way to Tibet in 1634, whilst attempting to destroy the Yellow Hat sect of Buddhism and evading the Manchu. By 1636, most Inner Mongolian tribes had submitted to the Manchu and the Khalkha eventually submitted to the Qing in 1691, thus bringing all but the west of today's Mongolia under Beijing's rule. The Dzungars were virtually wiped out in 175758 by several wars. Mongolian culture remained in tact because The Manchus forbade mass Chinese immigration. The Manchu maintained control of Mongolia until 1911 with a combination of military and economic measures, intermarriages and alliances. Manchu high officials, Ambans, were installed around territories and the country was subdivided into ever more feudal and ecclesiastical fiefdoms. During the 19th century, feudal lords cared more about representation than the responsibilities of their subjects. This behaviour of Mongolia's nobility resulted in poverty becoming ever more widespread, and was worsened by the usurious practices of Chinese traders and the collection of imperial taxes in silver instead of livestock.
Until 1911: the Manchu maintained the control of Mongolia
4.6 1911: independence from Qing Dynasty
Independence
Following the collapse of the Qing Dynasty, Mongolia declared independence in 1911 under Bogd Khaan. However, the newly established Republic of China claimed the territory of Mongolia as part of its own. The area controlled by the Bogd Khaan was approximately that of the former Outer Mongolia, and the 49 hoshuns of Inner Mongolia expressed their willingness to join the new country, but to no avail. In 1919, after the October Revolution in Russia, Chinese troops occupied Mongolia, led by Xu Shuzheng. However, in October 1920 as a result of the Russian Civil War, the White Russian adventurer Baron Ungern led his troops into Mongolia, where in February 1921 he defeated the Chinese at Niislel Khree (Ulaanbaatar). Bolshevik Russia supported the establishment of a communist Mongolian government and army to reduce the threat posed by Ungern. This Mongolian army took the Mongolian part of Kyakhta from the Chinese on March 18, 1921, and Russian and Mongolian troops arrived in Khree on July 6. Mongolia's independence was once again declared on July 11,
The eighth Jebtsundamba Khutuktu (Bogd Khaan)
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1921: full independence from China 1921. Mongolia remained closely aligned with the Soviet Union over the next seven decades.
4.7 1924: Mongolian Peoples Republic established
Mongolian People's Republic
Following the death in 1924 of the king and religious leader, Bogd Khan, a Mongolian People's Republic was proclaimed with support from the Russians. By the beginning of the 20th century, 750 monasteries were functioning in Mongolia, and during the 1920s approximately one third of the male population were monks. In 1928, Khorloogiin Choibalsan rose to power. He instituted collectivisation of livestock, the destruction of Buddhist monasteries and the murder of monks and other enemies of the people. The Stalinist purges in Mongolia beginning in 1937 left more than 30,000 people dead. Japanese imperialism became even more alarming following the invasion of neighbouring Manchuria in 1931. However, during the Soviet-Japanese Border War of 1939, the Soviet Union successfully defended Mongolia against Japanese expansionism. Mongolian forces also took part in the Soviet Manchurian Strategic Offensive Operation of August 1945 in Inner Mongolia. China agreed to recognize Outer Mongolia's independence, provided a referendum was held, because of the Soviet threat of seizing parts of Inner Mongolia. The referendum took place in October 1945 and 100% of the electorate voted for independence, according to official numbers. Both countries confirmed mutual recognition on October 6, 1949 following the establishment of the PRC. Mongolia continued to align itself closely with the Soviet Union, especially as relations worsened between the PRC and the USSR in the late 1950s. In the 1980s, 55,000 Soviet troops were based in Mongolia.
1924 onwards: centrally planned economy, destruction of monasteries, murder of monks, Stalinism
1945: China recognised Outer Mongolias independence
1945 onwards: Mongolia aligned closely with USSR
4.8 1990: peaceful Democratic Revolution, introduction of multi-party system & market economy 1992: new constitution
Democratic revolution
1993: the first election wins for non-communist parties
Mongolian politics was strongly influenced by the introduction of perestroika (restructuring) and glasnost (openness and freedom of speech) by Mikhail Gorbachev in the early 90s, leading to the peaceful Democratic Revolution, the introduction of a multi-party system and a market economy. In 1992, a new constitution was introduced and the "People's Republic" was dropped from the country's name. The first election wins for non-communist parties came in the 1993 Presidential elections and the 1996 parliamentary elections.The transition to a market economy was often rocky, with the early 1990s seeing food shortages and high inflation. The signing of the Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold mine contract is considered a major cornerstone in recent Mongolian history. The Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party dropped the Revolutionary from its name in 2010.
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Government
Government
Democracy, coalition government between the MPP & the DP, State Great Khural, elections in 2012
The biggest political parties: The Mongolian People's Party (MPP) The Democratic Party (DP)
Mongolia exists as a parliamentary republic, whose government is elected by parliament, which is in turn elected by the people. Mongolia's constitution guarantees full freedom of expression and religion and Mongolia has a number of competing political parties, the most significant two being the Mongolian People's Party (MPP, formerly the MPRP) and the Democratic Party (DP).
5.1
Political System and Recent History
Sukhbaatar Square in front of the Saaral Ordon that houses the offices of the Prime Minister and President Since Democratic Revolution, there has been continuous replacement of governments
Mongolian politics is established under the framework of a parliamentary democracy, in which the State Great Khural (Parliament) holds legislative powers and the executive branch is headed by the Prime Minister who appoints a Cabinet. The President of Mongolia has limited executive powers but acts as the Head of State and Commander-in-Chief of Mongolias army. Elections are held every four years, and so there have been six parliamentary and Presidential elections since 1991. The MPRP won the parliamentary and Presidential elections in 1992, but was defeated by the Democratic Party in 1996. The 2000 parliamentary election returned the MPRP to dominant power, who remained in office after the 2004 elections, but with reduced representation. From 2004 there were numerous changes of Prime Minister. A coalition government headed by the leader of the Democratic Party, Elbegdorj Tsakhia, was formed in 2004. In January 2006, he was replaced by MPRP leader Enkhbold Miyeegombo as Prime Minister, who in turn resigned his position following his failure to be re-elected as MPRP Chairman, and was superseded by Bayar Sanjaa. In November of 2007, a new cabinet was formed with members of several different parties. Again the MPRP won a majority in the 2008 parliamentary elections, but allegations of electoral fraud by the opposition led to the first ever riots and several damages to property and deaths arose. Consequently, the MPRP invited opposition members into the Cabinet forming the coalition government that exists today. In May 2009, the long tenure of MPRP politicians in the Presidential seat was ended when the Democratic Party figure Elbegdorj Tsakhia was elected President. Mr Bayar resigned his position in October of 2009 due to ill-health, and was replaced by the current Prime Minister, Sukhbaataryn Batbold, who was previously Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Current Prime Minister: Sukhbaataryn Batbold Current President: Tsakhiagyn Elbegdorj 2008: coalition government formed between the MPP and DP
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5.2 President
Mongolia's President, as Head of State, has a largely symbolic role, but with the power to block Parliament's decisions. Parliament can then over-rule the veto with a two-thirds majority vote. The President is required to formally resign his or her party membership when he takes office. The current President, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, was twice formerly the Prime Minister and member of the Democratic Party. He was elected as President on May 24, 2009. Mongolia's constitution provides three requirements for taking office as President; the candidate must be at least 45 years old, be a native-born Mongolian and have resided in Mongolia for five years prior to taking office. President of Mongolia, Tsakhiagyn Elbegdorj 5.3 The State Great Khural
The State Great Khural is the name of the parliament, and consists of a single chamber with 76 seats with a house speaker who acts as Chairman. The members of parliament are elected every four years.
5.4 PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 3
Mongolia Peoples Party and Democratic Party
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The Mongolia Peoples Republic Party, or MPRP, governed the country in a oneparty system from 1921 to 1990. Then, with the peaceful democratic revolution, came a multi-party system. The party continued governing until 1996, and from 2000 to 2004, after which it formed a coalition with the Democratic Party and two others, and since then has formed two other coalitions, initiating the change both times and remaining the dominant party. The MPRP won the last round of parliamentary elections in June 2008, and in November 2010, the party reverted to its initial name of 1921 by removing the revolutionary title, now known simply as the Mongolia Peoples Party, or MPP. 46 The Democratic Party, or DP, was the dominant governing party in the coalition formed from 1996-2000 and approximately an equal partner in the coalition formed from 2004-2006.
MPP
Democratic Party
Others 5.5 Prime Minister and the cabinet
The current Prime Minister, Sukhbaataryn Batbold, assumed office on 29 October 2009, and his deputy Prime Minister is Norovyn Altankhuyag. There are ministers of each department (finance, defense, labour, agriculture, etc.) and those offices constitute the Prime Minister's cabinet, as nominated by the Prime Minister in consultation with the President and confirmed by the State Great Khural. A key position of present, given the importance of mining to the economy, is the Minister of Minerals and Energy, currently held by Minister D.Zorigt.
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Foreign Relations
Foreign Relations
Key relations with Russia (largest importer into Mongolia, uranium & rail JVs), China (85% of Mongolian exports), North Korea (amicable relationship) & Japan (interests in rare earth expansion)
Mongolia maintains bilateral relations with 140 and diplomatic relations with 149 countries.
In developing its relations with other countries, Mongolia is guided by universally recognized principles and norms of international law as defined in the UN charter. Mongolia has bilateral relations with 140 countries and diplomatic relations with 149 countries. Recently, the government has put much emphasis on encouraging foreign investment into Mongolia.
6.1
Africa
6.1.1
Egypt
Relations between Egypt and Mongolia officially began in 1964, since then the countries have signed various bilateral corporation agreements. The only Mongolian embassy on the African continent is in Cairo. Recent Official Visits A Mongolian parliamentary delegation visited Egypt in June 2001 in order to sign an agreement to try to boost Mongolian students attending Egyptian courses. June 2001: cooperation agreement was signed In April 2004, the Mongolian President Natsagiin Bagabandi met with the Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, in Egypt and discussed ways to improve bilateral relations, as well as problems in Iraq and Palestine. They signed an executive protocol for agreements on economic cooperation, air services and investment protection. In March 2007, the Egyptian Minister of International Cooperation visited Ulaanbaatar where he met Mongolian Prime Minister Miyeegombyn Enkhbold. In October 2008, the Secretary General of the Egyptian Fund for Technical Cooperation with the Commonwealth visited Ulaanbaatar where he met with ministers and discussed enhanced cooperation between Egypt and Mongolia. The Mongolian officials said they welcomed the technical support provided by the fund in training and other economic benefits.
2007: enhanced cooperation between the two countries discussed
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Security cooperation 2001 and 2008: enhancement of security cooperation Mongolia and Egypt have cooperated on security exercises and operations, such as Mongolian policeman visiting Egypt in 2001 to train for techniques in prevention of drug-trafficking and anti-terrorism, and in 2008 Mongolian officials visiting Egypt to learn of the role of anti-corruption officers.
6.2
Asia
6.2.1
Russia
Mongolia almost certainly has the strongest relationship with Russia, who it has been close with ever since the Russians helped liberate Mongolia from the Chinese in 1921, and over the next 70 years the Soviet Union was the countrys greatest ally. Both are members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Mongolia has an embassy in Moscow and Russia has one in Ulaanbaatar. Background Russia and Mongolia share a 3,500km border Russia helped Mongolia to ward off the Chinese invasion The Mongolian People's Republic was established under the Soviet influence in 1921 Mongolia shares its borders with only two countries, Russia and China, and as a result its economics and politics are directly influenced by the two. The majority of imports come from Russia, in particular petroleum and diesel, and they two countries share a 3,500km border. In the past, Mongolian invasions in the 13 century bought much of Russia into the Mongol Empire, and a significant portion of the Russian population were killed. Most of Russia remained under Mongol rule for the following 300 years. In 1921, the Soviets helped establish the Mongolian Peoples Republic after helping to ward off the Chinese invasion. Communist era Close bilateral relations due to both communist regimes 1986: treaty of peace, friendship and cooperation signed Both nations forged close relations during soviet times with strong industrial trade links, and a large number of soviet troops were permanently deployed in Mongolia through fear of Chinese expansionism. Mongolia supported Russia during the Sino-Soviet split of the 1950s, and a treaty of peace, friendship and cooperation was signed between the two nations in 1986. Plans for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Mongolia were finalised in 1989. Modern era Collapse of Soviet Union, Mongolia's trade with Russia declined by 80% Following the end of the cold war and dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russias trade with Mongolia decreased by 80% almost overnight and Chinas influence over Mongolia increased. However, today the majority of imports come from Russia, in particular petroleum and diesel imports.
th
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2000: Vladimir Putin renewed a major bilateral treaty In 2000, Vladimir Putin (then President of Russia) made a visit to Mongolia to restrengthen a bilateral treaty, which was the first visit by a Russian head of state since Leonid Brezhnev in 1974. Recently, a meeting between Ruissian PM Vladimir Putin and his Mongolian counter-part S. Batbold led to Russia writing off 97.8% of Mongolian debts which had accumulated during soviet times - $172m, of which Mongolia would only be asked to pay back $3.8m in a single transfer. Uranium exploration and recent Joint Venture Russia holds 190 reports on Mongolias 6 uranium fields, Mongolia only has access to 34 Through the decades of former Soviet exploration in Mongolia in the second half of the last century, Russia has become an adept student of Mongolian geology and mining potential. From 1970-1990, the Soviet Union discovered 6 uranium deposits in which it estimated 1.5mt of reserves in Mongolia. All 190 reports on the discoveries are currently held in Russia, whereas the Mongolians have only been given copies to 34 of these reports. Russia now finds itself positioned again as a very important player participating in Mongolian uranium exploration. In December 2010, Mongolia and Russia signed an agreement to develop the Dornod uranium resource, Mongolias biggest untapped uranium field. Rosatom Corp., Russias nuclear power company, Russias government-run ARMZ Uranium Holding, Mongolias state-owned KOO MonAtom and the countrys Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) signed the agreement in Moscow. Mongolians will remain in control, with 51% of the share to Monatom and 49% going to ARMZ. The Russians will invest $300 million in the first stage, and first production is expected in 2011, with the action plan stating that the JV would begin to function around June. The expected Mongolian reserves are 30,000 tons, and the new company will survey, mine and process the uranium.
Russian government writes off 98% of Mongolia's state debt
6.2.2
Peoples Republic of China (PRC)
As the Soviet Union had been Mongolias main ally and the most influential neighbouring power up until 1990, foreign relations between the PRC and Mongolia used to be predominantly determined by the PRC and USSR relations. With adoption of democracy and transition to a market economy, Mongolias relationships with China also began to improve. Currently the PRC is the largest trading partner of Mongolia. Background Mongolia and China instigated many wars throughout history, provoking the Chinese to build their Great Wall to defend against the Mongols. Although Khubilai Khaan conquered the majority of China and established the Mongolian capital at the location of modern Beijing, the Qing dynasty of Manchu invaded th Mongolia in the 18 century. The ruling of the Qing dynasty came to an end in 1911, when Mongolia declared its independence. Although in 1919 China regained control over the region, in 1921 the USSR forces helped Mongolia to
Mongolia and China wars
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reclaim its independence, prompting the later formation of the Mongolian Peoples Republic. Communist era 1949: diplomatic relations with PRC 1962: border treaty signed 1984: demarcation of border 1986: further agreements 1988: border treaty verified In October 1949, Mongolia established diplomatic relations with the PRC. Although a border treaty was signed in 1962, Mongolia requested for further support from the USSR due to security concerns. Only in 1984, when a highpower delegation from China visited Mongolia, was tension over bilateral relations relaxed, and the two nations started to set apart their borders. Various agreements to improve trade and create air and transport links were signed in 1986. A treaty on border control was verified in 1988. Modern period 1994: treaty of friendship and cooperation Mongolia given access to Tianjin port Since the end of the Cold War, China has been continuously making effort to strengthen its bilateral ties with Mongolia with all due respect to the latters autonomy. In 1994, the two countries signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation. Today, the PRC has become the major trading partner of Mongolia and the greatest contributor in mining related foreign investments. Chinas decision to allow Mongolia to use its Tianjin port was a significant move bolstering the landlocked countrys trade with the Asia Pacific region. Recent News 25-40 mtpa of coal from Mongolia to China Dairy and flour factories to be developed in rural Mongolia The latest news informs that around 15 million tonnes of coking coal has been lost in Queensland floods in Australia, the largest exporter of coal to China. Mongolia will soon have the capacity to supply 25-40 mtpa of coal to the PRC. It has been continuously noted that there are great opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries, especially since Mongolia has abundant natural resources and China has the market. Currently, negotiations are taking place on the establishment of dairy and flour factories in rural Mongolia.
6.2.3
Japan
The Peoples Republic of Mongolia established diplomatic relations with Japan in February 1972. The ties were strengthened after the Democratic Revolution in Mongolia. Japan-Mongolia relations over 2006 - 2010 2006 1972: diplomatic relations with Japan Capitalism in Mongolia strengthened further ties First ever visits by Mongolian and Japanese Prime Ministers Contracts for SME development and environmental protection project were signed, an official development assistance loan to Mongolia was approved (JPY 3 billion/$36 million) Over 80 members of the Japanese Diet visited Mongolia
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2007 Mongolian President visits Japan Basic action plan for Mongolia-Japan cooperation over the following ten years was signed An agreement was signed to hold a two-stage Public-Private Joint Consultative Meeting for promotion of trade, investment and joint utilisation of mineral resources. 2008 Speaker of the Mongolian Great Khural visits Japan A project for a new international airport near to Ulaanbaatar was approved. A contract for an official development assistance loan to Mongolia for the airport project was signed (JPY 29 billion/$349 million) 2009 Mongolian Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister visit Japan A new loan was approved for the development of public finances ($50 million to be repaid in 2 years)
2010 An agreement to cooperate in the rare-earths development sector of Mongolia was signed between the two countries (96% of Japans rareearth metals are imported from China and the latter restricted their export quotas by 72% and 35% in H2 2010 and Q1 2011 respectively. China controls more than 95% of the worlds rare-earth output) Japanese geologists and scientists launched exploration of rare-earth elements in Mongolia.
Economic cooperation Economic ties strengthened after 1990 Japan former largest aid donor to Mongolia From humanitarian aid to larger-scale projects The economic relations of Mongolia and Japan have been significantly expanded since the formers transition to a market economy in 1991. Japan has historically been the largest aid benefactor to Mongolia, until the US had approved a Millennium Challenge Compact aid worth $285 million in October 2007. At first, economic cooperation between the two nations was mainly in the form of humanitarian aid to support the population of Mongolia, who were struggling to bypass the transition period. The cooperation, however, later was extended to focus on the development of infrastructure projects and to facilitate selfsufficiency in certain sectors of the economy.
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6.2.4 North Korea
The Peoples Republic of Mongolia established diplomatic relations with North Korea in October 1948, when the former acknowledged the Soviet-backed government of Kim II-Sung. Mongolia is one of the few countries in the world that maintains warm relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). History During the 1950s civil war in Korea, Mongolia supported North Korea by providing assistance. The first cooperation and friendship treaty between the two countries was signed in 1986, after which Kim II-Sung paid an official visit to Mongolia in 1988. Abandonment of socialism and transition to democracy caused the two nations diplomatic relations to collapse, such that in 1995 the previously signed cooperation treaty was cancelled and North Korea closed their embassy in Ulaanbaatar in 1999. The July 2007 visit by the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Kim Yong Nam, was the first high-status visit to Mongolia by a North Korean delegate in 19 years. North Koreans are deemed to see Mongolia as a fellow non-Western nation which went through an experience similar to the DPRKs during the Soviet era. In 2006 rumours went that the Mongolian government allocated 1.3 square km of land to North Korean refugees for the establishment of a camp in 40 km from Ulaanbaatar, but the Mongolian Prime Minister of that time, M. Enkhbold, officially rejected such a postulation.
1948: diplomatic relations with North Korea Mongolia backed North Korea during Korean civil war 1986: cooperation and friendship agreement 1995: cancellation 2007: first high-profile visit by North Korean delegate in 19 years
6.3
Europe
Mongolia endeavours to maintain close relationships with European countries. In 1991, Mongolia signed an economic cooperation agreement with the UK, and investment promotion and protection agreements with France and Germany.
6.3.1
United Kingdom
Recent Controversy On September 17, 2010 the Mongolian Chief of Administration at the National Security Council, Mr. B.Khurts, was arrested at Heathrow Airport while paying an official visit to the United Kingdom. He was accused of kidnapping D.Enkhbat, a Mongolian citizen who later died from health problems, from France as the suspect in a high government officials murder. Mr. Khurts and his three associates action was deemed as alleged kidnapping, violating the Law of the European Union.
1991: cooperation agreements with UK, France and Germany
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Sep 2010: Mr. Khurts arrested at Heathrow Nov 2010: Mongolian PM cancelled his visit to UK After the incident, the Mongolian Prime Minister Sukhbaataryn Batbold cancelled his official visit to London which was scheduled for 27 November 2010. Some see this as an expression of Mongolias discontentment with the arrest of Mr. Khurts, who was diplomatically immune, and the refusal of the British government to release him upon Mongolias request.
6.4
North America
6.4.1
Canada
Canada and Mongolia established bilateral ties in November 1973. Mongolia operates an Embassy in Ottawa and an Honorary Consulate in Toronto, while Canada has an Honorary Consulate in Ulaanbaatar and an Embassy in nearby Bejiing (China). 1973: bilateral relations with Canada Post-1990: strengthened relations 2000-2009: FDI x 60 The two countries diplomatic relations were intensified when the CanadaMongolia Society was founded in 1980. After the collapse of the USSR, Canada started supporting Mongolia by providing aid through its non-governmental organizations and other specialised development agencies. At the end of 2009, the Canadian FDI into Mongolia reached CAD 601 million (around $594 million). According to the estimates, in 1999 2009 the bilateral merchandise trade between the two nations rose over 60x from CAD2.6 million ($2.57 million) in 1999 to CAD163.8 million ($162 million) in 2009. Toronto-based mining companies such as Ivanhoe Mines, SouthGobi Resources and Centerra Gold are the major players in the Mongolian mining industry. Recent News Canadian FDI mostly into mining Canadian FDI thus far has been mainly concentrated in the mineral resource sector of Mongolia. Negotiations are ongoing on the signing of a foreign investment promotion and protection agreement (FIPA) between the two nations. In September 2010, the Mongolian Prime Minister (PM) Sukhbaataryn Batbold attended the Canada-Mongolia Investors' Forum held in Toronto. Representatives of the most influential mining companies with assets in Mongolia gathered at the conference. The Prime Minister highlighted Mongolias intentions to create a more favourable environment in the country for foreign businesses and investors through legal and regulatory regime. Mr. Batbold also paid a visit to the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). 19 companies that are actively engaged in mining and exploration businesses in Mongolia are listed on the TSX. The stock exchange officials expressed their willingness to help develop the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE). Subsequently the Prime Minister attended another investor meeting in Vancouver where he stated that Mongolia should see Canada as a role model in terms of
Sep 2010: Mongolian PM visits Canada PM calls for more FDI
PM visits TSX 19 companies with assets in Mongolia on TSX Canada as Mongolias role model
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development, efficient utilisation of natural resources, cost-effective agriculture, and high-quality public governance and education systems. The PM pledged that Mongolia will continue supporting Canadian investors and recommended that companies start building processing plants in Mongolia, similar to those in Canada, so that the value of their extracted minerals could be significantly enhanced. Sep 2010: MOU on improvement of civil services A memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed between the two countries to promote cooperation on civil services in Mongolia.
6.4.2
USA
US Assistance The United States agency for International Development (USAID) has continuously been one of the key aid donors to Mongolia. The program primarily focuses on sustainable, private sector-led economic growth and more effective and accountable governance. As stated by the organization, in 1991-2008 USAID granted Mongolia $174.5 million in total. The budget allocated in 2007 amounted to $6.6 million and comprised projects in various fields. USAID key aid donor to Mongolia 1991-2008: USAID = $174.5 mn In 2006, the United States Department of Agriculture granted Mongolia food aid worth $4.2 million with the intention to improve the livelihood of herders and encourage entrepreneurship in the agricultural sector of the economy. The US also supports Mongolias reforms in defence. Since 2003 Mongolia has been contributing small numbers of troops to support US operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in 2005 it also deployed armed peacekeepers to UN and NATO missions. The 100 troops sent to Iraq were withdrawn in 2008, as Russia and China applied significant pressure. The Peace Corps from the US, which is mainly focused on English teaching and training work, operates with around 100 volunteers in Mongolia. The organisation is also active in such fields as SME development, public health and youth th th education. In 2011, the program will celebrate its 50 anniversary and its 20 anniversary in Mongolia. In October 2007, the Mongolian government signed a Compact agreement with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for the receipt of a grant worth $285 million. The program comprises projects in railroad development, improvement of vocational training, upgrade of health services and establishment of a property registration system in Mongolia. Recent News Agreement reached in uranium sector cooperation In November 2010, two Mongolian Parliament Members and the Director of MonAtom, a state organization accountable for all uranium licenses in Mongolia, visited the USA for discussions on partnership in the mining sector. The visitors learnt about the United States uranium exploration and enrichment experience,
Mongolia sent troops to Afghanistan and Iraq 2008: troops withdrawn from Iraq
1991: Peace Corps in Mongolia
MCC: grant = $285 mn
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methods of efficient utilization of resources for fuel production and their regulatory system in the uranium sector. High officials responsible for energy and mining industries of the US exchanged views with their Mongolian counterparts in order to find ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation of the two countries. A consensus was reached on how the USA could contribute to the training and development of the Mongolian workforce recruited in the uranium field.
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Geography and Climate
Geography and Climate
A large, land-locked country with long, harsh winters but with highest number of blue-sky days the Nomad Empire of Eternal Blue Sky
19th largest country (1.56 km ) Khuiten Peak the highest altitude (4,374m) Winter: 40 C (40 F) Summer: +35 C (+95 F)
2
Mongolia is ranked 19 in the world by country size after Iran. It covers 1.56 million square km. Mongolias geography varies from a cold, mountainous region in the north to the Gobi desert in the south. It is the country of steppes. The highest altitude of Mongolia is the Khuiten Peak (4,374m) situated in the far western massif, Tavan Bogd. The climate is generally dry and the temperature varies significantly across the year, making the winters extremely cold and summers very warm. In January, the temperature may fall as low as 40 C (40 F) and in summer it can rise to as high as +35 C (+95 F). There are many occasions when Mongolia is hit hard by exceptionally cold winters called dzud. Explanation of dzud is given in the Agriculture section of this report. Ulaanbaatar has been named the coldest capital city in the world. Mongolia receives little precipitation, as a result of short and dry summers, and is especially windy due to its high altitude above sea level. On average, 257 out of the 365 days of the year are cloudless and the heaviest atmospheric pressure falls on the central region of Mongolia. Precipitation is the highest in the Northern region, averaging 25-30 cm per year, while it is the lowest in the Southern region, averaging 10-20 cm per year. Sometimes there may be no rainfall in a year in parts of the Gobi desert. Gobi means desert steppe in Mongolian, referring to the dry terrain that has deficient foliage to be able to support livestock, except camels.
th
Ulaanbaatar coldest capital city in the world 275 out of 365 days sunny
Little precipitation Gobi means desert steppe
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Administrative Regions
Administrative Regions
21 a aimags (provinces), 329 soums (sub-provinces) provinces)
Mon Mongolia is divided into 21 aimags. Each aimag is subdivided into a number of s soums. Aimag means "tribe in Mongolian. All aimags are governed as separate municipalities. An exception is the capital city Ulaanbaatar, which is administered city, separate from Tv Aimag (Central Province), where it is located. separately
LIST OF AIMAGS 1. Arkhangai 5. Darkhan-Uul 9. Govi-Altai 13. Khvsgl 17. Selenge 21. Zavkhan 2. Bayan-lgii 6. Dornod 10. Govismber 14. Orkhon 18. Skhbaatar 3. Bayankhongor 7. Dornogovi 11. Khentii 15. mngovi 19. Tv 4. Bulgan 8. Dundgovi 12. Khovd 16. vrkhangai 20. Uvs
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Economy
Economy
The Largest contributors to the Economy are mining and agriculture. Expected GDP growth in 2013 in excess of 25% (IMF).
Large reserves of copper, gold, coal, molybdenum, fluorspar, uranium, tin and tungsten 1990-2000: combination of deep recession due to political inaction/natural disasters as well as economic growth due to privatization and free-market economic reform
Economic activity in Mongolia has historically been focused on agriculture and herding, but recent discoveries of mineral deposits have attracted large levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the mining sector, which is also the largest contributor to government receipts. Up until the dismantlement of the Soviet Union in 1990-1991, soviet assistance used to account for up to a third of GDP, before almost disappearing overnight. The decade that followed saw natural disasters and political inaction cause deep recession, as well as free-market economics, reform and privatization lead to economic growth. Mongolia joined the WTO in 1997. From 2000-02, the country again entered recession due to particularly harsh winters and summer droughts which led to large-scale livestock fatalities, and was compounded by falling prices for primary sector exports and opposition to privatization.
2004-2008: CAGR 9% due to high Cu prices and new Au projects. 08 inflation peaked at 36% 08 Financial crisis: lower inflation, reduced govt. revenues & spending Oct 09: landmark agreement to develop OT, worlds largest untapped copper deposit
In 2004-08, GDP grew at a compounded 9%, mainly because of increased gold production and high copper prices. In 2008, inflation reached the highest levels in over a decade, hitting 36% in August, but by the end of the year the price levels dropped as commodity prices fell and the global financial crisis took hold. Government revenues fell, forcing cuts in spending. In early 2009, aided by the IMFs $242 million Stand-by Arrangement, Mongolia began to recover from the crisis, although instability remained in the banking sector. In October 2009, legislation was finally passed to develop the Oyu Tolgoi gold/copper project, the worlds largest untapped copper deposit. Mongolias economy continues to be significantly influenced by neighbouring behemoths, Russia and China. Approximately 85% of all exports go to China, and China accounts for over half of all Mongolian external trade. On the other hand, 95% of petroleum products and a large proportion of Mongolias electricity come from Russia, leaving it vulnerable to Russian price hikes. There are over 30,000 businesses operating in Mongolia, the majority of which are operational in Ulaanbaatar. Outside of the capital city, subsistence herding employs most of the workforce. Livestock typically consist of sheep, goats, cattle, horses and camels.
85% of Mongolian exports to China
Over 30,000 businesses in Mongolia
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Economy
9.1 In 2009 economy contracted by 1.6%, primarily due to copper prices falling as much as 65% The Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009
The global economic downturn in late 2008/early 2009 resulted in reduced demand for commodities and a resulting slump in their value. Mongolia saw its demand for exports and export revenue decrease, and the GDP growth of 8.9% seen in 2008 was following by a contraction in the economy by 1.6% in 2009. Most crucial to Mongolia, being at the time the countrys largest export, were copper prices, which fell from $8,700/tonne in April 2008, to $3000/tonne in March 2009, a 65% reduction. Other commodities essential to Mongolias export industry fell, including zinc, crude oil, coal and cashmere, and the only exception was gold, which held its price on account of its status as a safe-haven investment. The fall in price of commodities was combined with a fall in demand for commodities by China, which accounts for 85% of Mongolian exports, and yearon-year growth in industrial production shrunk from 16% in mid 2008 to 5% in the first quarter of 2009. This resulted in a contraction in Chinese demand for Mongolian copper imports by around 50% in the first half of 2009. The sharp fall in exports, combined with moderate growth in imports, led to a significant shift in the balance of payments in late 2008/early 2009. The current account showed a surplus of 6.7% of GDP in 2007 compared to a deficit of 14% of GDP in 2008, and the deficit further increased to 15% of GDP in the first half of 2009. The Mongolian Tugrik depreciated by 38% between the end of October 2008 and the middle of March 2009 due to a currency flight, which was further aggravated by the attempts of the Bank of Mongolia to defend the currency and maintain the de-facto peg against the dollar. This resulted in the bank losing $500 million in foreign currency reserves between July 2008 and February 2009. To prevent an overshooting of the exchange rate, measures were taken including the introduction of a transparent, bi-weekly foreign exchange auctioning mechanism and abandoning the de-facto peg to the dollar. The Central Bank rate was hiked from 9.75% to 14% in March of 2009, and the combination of these measures resulted in exchange rate stabilisation and the ability of the Bank to replenish its foreign currency reserves. The spread between the ask and bid rates in the commercial bank foreign exchange markets have remained low after the sharp spike in late 2008/early 2009, a good sign of improved liquidity in the market.
Chinas growth slowing from 16% to 5% led to decreased demand for Mongolian exports
Current account moved from surplus of 6.7% of GDP in 2007 to deficit of 14% in 2008
MNT fell 38% from Oct08 Mar09 $500m in foreign reserves were lost
De-facto peg abandoned
BoM raised IRs from 9.75-14% in March 2009 to restore confidence in local currency
9.2
Current state of the economy
2010 GDP growth = 6.1%
Mongolia continues on the road to a market economy, despite the significant impact of the global financial crisis, and in 2010 saw significant growth in its industrial and services sectors. Real GDP growth of 6.1% in 2010 was driven by strong growth in PRC (whose reported GDP was up 10.3% in 2010). International reserves has exceeded $2.0 billion as of the end of December 2010 (82.6% growth yoy), a record high for Mongolia.
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Recovery attributable to policy response and IMF loan facility of $242m The strong recovery may be attributable to a number of factors including the strong policy response from the authorities, assistance from the international community including the $242 million stand-by loan facility from the IMF (of which only $194 million was actually drawn), the global economic recovery, high copper prices and strong growth from the PRC. The Government at the end of 2010 made plans to increase its spending given the increased revenue and availability of budget financing, and has established a fiscal framework with the focus on macroeconomic stability for 2011. It is pursuing plans for structural reforms and has adopted a comprehensive fiscal responsibility law. A major milestone for developing Mongolias resource wealth was the eventual signing of the investment agreement in October 2009 between the Government, Ivanhoe Mines and Rio Tinto over the development of the vast Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold prospect in the South Gobi desert. Mongolia is about to experience a period of remarkable growth. The estimated value of untapped mineral assets in the country is around $1.3 trillion. Industry experts talk of the success and efficiency of recently implemented domestic policies which took the country out of recession. The IMF forecasts the real GDP growth to be over 25% in three years time, driven by advancements in the mining sector. Inflation smoothed down to 13% in 2010 from the soaring 36% in August 2008, but the authorities plans to hold price increases at a single digit through 2011 seem far fetched. FDI into the country has been growing at 30% annually and is expected to reach $11 billion in the next five years. In 2010, general government budget showed a surplus of $611 million and the external trade deficit reached $373.8 million (exports and imports were both up 53% yoy). According to Montsame, in 2010, the total industrial output increased 169.7 billion MNT ($135.7 million) or 10% to 1,874.6 billion MNT ($1.5 billion) at 2005 constant prices compared to the previous year. This increase was mainly due to a 16.7% - 91.8% increase in main mining and quarrying products such as crude oil, fluor spar concentrate and coal; a 11.2% - 69.0% increase in manufacturing products such as copper, lime, alcohol, metal steel, flour, solid concrete, cement, sawn wood, yoghurt, soft drinks, juice, metal foundries, fodder, milk; and a 2.1x 2.3x increase in products such as steel casting, and iron ore. In 2010, Industrial output (at 2005 constant prices) showed increases in mining of coal and lignite extraction of peat (91.8%), other mining and quarrying (19.5%), extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas (16.7%) for the mining and quarrying sector; manufacture of office accounting and computing (5.5 times), manufacture of rubber and plastics products (84.4%), production of non-metallic mineral products (54.0%), manufacture of wood and wooden products (35.6%), manufacture of basic metals (29.6%), manufacture of food products and beverages (24.0%), manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (18.2%), manufacture of wearing apparel, dressing and dyeing of fur (17.5%), publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media (7.6%), manufacture of tobacco products (2.9%) for the manufacturing sector compared to the previous year.
Fiscal framework approved for 2011 to encourage economic stability
Oct 2009: milestone agreement between government, Ivanhoe & Rio Tinto to develop OT
Value of mineral assets in country estimated at $1.3 trillion Inflation 13% FDI growing at 30% annually & expected to total $11bn in 4 years Budget surplus $611mn External trade deficit $373.8mn
Industrial output up 10% to $1.5bn (at 2005 constant prices)
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There was an increase in production of electricity, thermal energy, and steam (6.4%) [Montsame].
9.3
Gross Domestic Product
Historically, the greatest contributors to GDP were livestock, agriculture and animal husbandry, but recently focus has changed to mining. In 2009, 21.2% of Mongolias GDP was attributable to agriculture whereas 22.5% of the economy was attributable to the mining sector. The mining sector is by far the largest source of foreign currency inflows, and contributed to 85% of exports in 2008 and 82% of exports in 2009. 2010 real GDP growth = 6.1% On 13 January 2011, the NSO officially announced that the 2010 real GDP growth was 6.1%, and nominal growth was 25.3%. (The IMF prediction of real GDP growth for 2010 was 8.5%). Trade in service, processing industry and mining had high profits, but the agriculture sector experienced large losses when 11.3 million livestock died during the winter dzud. Mongolia is an emerging market whose GDP is comparatively small, at $6.6bn. However, this figure grew at a CAGR of 8.7% from 2005 to 2008, primarily driven by i) increased FDI cash in-flows, particularly in the mining industry ii) increased commodity prices, chiefly copper, gold and iron
th
2010 nominal GDP = $6.6bn 2005 2008 annual growth rate = 8.7%
NOMINAL GDP COMPOSITION BY SECTOR 2007 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Trading Services Other 20.5% 29.5% 6.1% 7.0% 19.0% 10.40% 2008 21.6% 22.5% 6.2% 7.9% 21.5% 22.80% 2009 21.2% 22.5% 5.9% 6.0% 23.2% 23.30%
Source: National Statistics Office 2009 Expected real GDP growth 8.9% in 2011, and in excess of 25% in 2013. The IMF forecasts the real GDP growth to be over 25% by 2013 driven by advancements in the mining sector, while income per capita is expected to reach $3,500 in 2015 compared to the current level of $1,745.
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14 12 11.0 9.5 7.2 5.1 5.8 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10 8 6 4 2 0
Source: IMF
4000
Income per capita, $
3504 3101 2693 2051 1670 1343 1745 2192
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014
2015
Source: World Bank estimate, IMF forecast
9.4
Money Supply
By the end of December 2010, money supply had reached 4.7 trillion tugrik ($3.8 billion), up 1.8 trillion tugrik ($1.45 billion) or 62% from the previous year. In 1990, the M2 supply of money was $5.6 billion, this means in 1990-2010 the amount of money in circulation increased 83,829%.
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Real GDP growth, %
GDP, $ billions
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MONEY SUPPLY, $ MILLIONS 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Dec-97 Nov-98 Sep-00 Aug-01 Jan-97 Oct-99
M1
M2
Jul-02
Jun-03
May-04
Apr-05
Mar-06
Feb-07
Dec-08 Mar-10
Source: Bank of Mongolia (calculated at constant 2010 USD:MNT exchange rate) In two and a half years from the beginning of 2008 to June of 2010, the M2 money supply increased from $1.88bn to $2.86bn (52% rise) MONEY SUPPLY, $ MILLIONS 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 May-10 M1 M2
Source: Bank of Mongolia (calculated at constant 2010 USD:MNT exchange rate)
9.5 In August 2010, gov revenues were up 56% YTD and expenditures up 23% YTD
Budget
According to the World Bank estimates, in August 2010 the fiscal deficit fell to 0.4% of GDP, compared to 10.6% a year ago. Total government revenues were up 56% YTD due to rebounding commodity prices and the infamous Windfall Tax, while expenditures increased 23% owing to cash handouts delivered to 50000 civilians. The figures indicate overall the improving economy and positive
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Nov-09
Jan-08
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Windfall tax abolished, effective from 01 Jan 2011 prospects. Worth noting, the abolishment of the 68% Windfall Tax has been in full st effect since the 1 of January 2011.
300 250 200
YTD % INCREASE IN GOVERNMENT REVENUE Aug-09 Aug-10
Due to recovery in commodity prices and domestic demand, revenues grew sharply
150 100 50 0 Tax revenue WPT VAT Wages and salaries Import duties Excise taxes Royalty -50 -100 Corporate income tax Non-tax revenues Social sec cont'ns
Source: World Bank In 2011 budget, govt revenue to be 42% of GDP, govt expenditure 52% of GDP On the 1st of December 2010, Parliament approved a new budget for 2011. According to the estimates, government revenues are to be 42% of GDP, government expenditures 52% of GDP and the fiscal deficit 9.9% of GDP. There is to be an increase in spending on wages of 22% and an increase in spending on transfers of 50%. Expenditures are mainly about to hike due to project-financing costs related to mining, infrastructure and agriculture. Financing of the Human Development Fund, which is responsible for cash handouts and the provision of student tuition fees, is to take up 11% of GDP. Income is mainly to be generated by copper, gold and coal exports, exploitation of oil reserves and privatizations of state properties. Before the budget was officially approved, the World Bank had been continuously warning about the possible inflationary pressure likely to be caused by the adoption of such a fiscal policy. According to their view, excessive spending worth 52% of GDP would fuel the already existing inflation in the form of wage-price spirals, pushing inflation towards 25%. The bank mentioned about the possibility of the 2006-2008 mistakes being replayed, which were the years of boom and excessive spending, during which no government funds were saved to cushion against frictions in the economy and following which the 2008-2009 collapse occurred in Mongolia. In 2011, the Windfall Tax will no longer bring revenues to the government, but the recently approved progressive royalties on minerals, i.e. 30% on copper ore and 15% on copper concentrate if their prices exceed 9000$/t, 5% on gold if the gold price exceeds 1,300$/oz, will bring some income boost. The amended royalties on copper will not be applied to Oyu Tolgoi production. Also the World Bank and the IMF are not planning to secure any more lending to Mongolia, finding it unnecessary as the country did not use the remaining two tranches of the IMFs Stand-by Agreement (SBA), worth $48 million. The IMF approved an 18-month
World Bank warns against such high government spending of 52% of GDP through fear of high inflation
Amended progressive royalties: 30% if Cu ore price exceeds 9000$/t 15% if Cu concentrate price exceeds 9000$/t 5% if gold price exceeds 1300$/oz ...etc.
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SBA in April 2009 for an amount equivalent to $242 million. Despite these issues and the World Banks warnings, the spending plans in overall seem to be highly unconstrained. The parliament members justified their move by asserting that no matter what the government decides, there are always precautionary warnings coming from the expert financial institutions, whereas the parliament makes their resolutions based on their own estimates and specialist advisors.
9.6 2010 inflation: 13% Supply side shocks in food prices main contributor to increased inflation towards end of 2010 Demand side inflation increasing, due to pressures from governments 30% public sector wage hike & public handouts
Inflation
After falling to as low as 8.8% in July 2010, inflation resumed its upward trend yet again by the end of 2010. The overall 2010 CPI, inflation as stated by the Bank of Mongolia, was 13%. Main factors behind the price increases mostly belonged to the supply side. Food and energy prices climbed up due to adverse weather effects in Russia, which boosted grain prices, and a disastrously cold winter in Mongolia, destroying ample of livestock and escalating meat prices. Higher volatility of the CPI index points to greater instability of the overall economy. However unfortunate it is, this usually is the case with transition economies. The central bank justifies its incompetence in handling inflation on the grounds that the price increases were mainly due to the supply side, while the banks intervention could predominantly soothe the demand side inflation. Such an excuse will no longer work in the future, as demand side inflation is also creeping up, especially with the upcoming government expenditures leaving no spare capacity (consequences of the 30% public sector wage increases effective from October 2010 and a continuation of the promised cash handouts to the public). Therefore, and not surprisingly, the World Bank predicts two-digit inflation figures over the year 2011. INFLATION, ANNUAL % CHANGE IN CPI 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Inflation reached 36% in Sep 08
Deflation occurred in Q4 2009
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Source: Bank of Mongolia Food prices are given the heaviest weighting in the consumer price index, therefore supply-side shocks in food prices have the greatest effect on calculated inflation levels in Mongolia.
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Sep-10
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PROPORTIONAL CPI BASKET OF GOODS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 May-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Dec-07 Oct-08 Jan-10 Jun-10 Restaurants Education Recreation & Transport Medical care Electricity, Water Housing Clothing Food
Food makes up over 40% of the CPI basket of goods
Source: Bank of Mongolia
9.7 2010 trade turnover = $6.2bn, up 54% 2010 trade deficit = $379m, up 50%
Trade
In 2010, total external trade turnover reached $6.2 billion, an increase of $2.15 million or 53.5% over 2009. However, the external trade balance showed a deficit of $378.7m in 2010, up $126.4 million or 50.1% compared to 2009.
TRADE, $ MILLION (12 MONTH ROLLING SUM) Exports 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 May-08 May-09 May-10 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Imports Trade balance (right axis) 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200
Source: World Bank
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9.7.1 2010 exports = $2.9bn, up 54% Exports
The latest update informs that In 2010, Mongolian exports totalled $2.9 billion, up 53.8% from 2009. Mineral products, natural or cultured stones, precious metal, jewellery, coins, textiles & textile articles live animals, animal origin products, raw & processed hides, skins, fur & articles thereof accounted for 98% of the total export value amount, and approximately 85% of all Mongolian exports go to China. The contribution of copper to export growth is levelling off, whereas has become the leading contributor to growth in exports. In February, copper contributed 53% to export growth, though by August this had reduced to only 9%, whereas coal contributed 40 percentage points of the 59% that was the year on year August growth. The dollar value of coal shipments in August had increased year-on-year by 172%, for an increase in total shipment volume of 146%, and coal made up 27% of all goods exported from Mongolia, up from 16% the previous year.
Gold and cashmere exports down
On the other hand, gold exports were down, despite gold prices once again reaching record heights. This was most likely a result of the abolishment of the st 68% windfall profit tax coming into play on January 1 2011, and hence gold producers were withholding stocks until this time. Cashmere export remained low, reflecting the effects of the devastating dzud last winter that destroyed livestock. 2010 I-XII EXPORTS Coal Copper concentrate Iron ore Gold Crude oil Zinc ore concentrate Greasy cashmere Fluorspar ore/concentrate Combed cashmere Molybdenium ore/concentrate Rest exports Volume 16.6 million tonnes 568.7k tonnes 3.5 million tonnes 5.1 tonnes 2.1 million barrels 119k tonnes 3k tonnes 376k tonnes 977 tonnes 4.8k tonnes Value, $ million 877.6 770.5 250.9 178.3 154.9 134.1 104.9 63.2 68.8 52.0 244.0 % of total exports 30.3% 26.6% 8.7% 6.1% 5.3% 4.6% 3.6% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 8.4%
Coal now Mongolias largest export commodity, accounting for 30% of all exports
Source: National Statistics Office of Mongolia
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China is Mongolias biggest trading partner. Currently around 85% of exports go to the PRC. EXPORTS, IN % China 100 80 60 85% of exports go to China 40 20 0 Mar-01 May-00 May-05 Mar-06 Jan-97 Nov-97 Sep-98 Jul-99 Jan-02 Nov-02 Sep-03 Jul-04 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Russia Other
9.7.2 Imports rising as economy recovers, in particular machinery and equipment
Imports
Largest imports: diesel and petroleum from Russia
Imports have continued to grow as the economy recovers. In 2010, goods and services of value $3.3 billion were imported, up 53.3% on 2009. The increase in demand for imported goods was primarily driven by rising demand for machinery and transport equipment, reflecting increased industrial activity involved in mining, construction and agriculture. These activities also added to petroleum and diesel imports, which are the countrys largest import products, and are supplied by The Russian Federation. Mongolia imported $400 million worth of diesel, $230 million worth of petroleum in 2010. 2010 I-XII IMPORTS EU countries Other countries of Europe of which Russia Northeast Asia of which Japan of which China Southeast Asia Other countries of Asia Africa America Australia Total Source: National Statistics Office $ million 318.8 1,148.6 1,090.2 1,386.7 197.6 1000.2 121.1 43.9 9.5 199.8 49.5 3,277.9 % of total 9.7% 35.0% 33.3% 42.3% 6.0% 30.5% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 6.1% 1.5%
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33.3% of all imports came from Russia in 2010, and 30.5% came from China, maintaining the situation of Russia being the primary supplier and China being the major buyer. The figure below displays historical proportions of imports that came from the two neighbouring giants. IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA AND CHINA, IN % China 100% 80% 60% 34% of imports from Russia, 30% from PRC 40% 20% 0% Jan-97 Nov-97 Sep-98 Jul-99 May-00 Mar-01 Jan-02 Nov-02 Sep-03 Jul-04 May-05 Mar-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Russia Other
9.8 Recovery after crisis due to strong policy response and IMF loans
Implemented Policies
As the IMF judges, Mongolias recovery after the crisis was largely due to strong policy responses made by the authorities and substantial aid coming from international communities, including a loan from the IMF itself. According to the IMF, a number of successful policies have been implemented: 1) A flexible exchange rate regime adopted in early 2009, supported by a forthright 400 bps increase in the policy rate. The new regime efficiently stabilized the foreign exchange market and Mongolias foreign reserves reached $1.7 billion (29% of GDP) in September 2010. 2) Fiscal adjustments were made in 2009 and continued in 2010 creating financing constraints and bringing down fiscal deficit to 0.4% of GDP. Parliament passed a comprehensive fiscal responsibility law in 2010. 3) Parliament approved a revised banking law that strengthened the regulatory framework. Tougher supervision regulations were issued bolstering the banking system and ensuring that banks could play their crucial role in fostering development by providing credit to the private sector.
Successful policies included adopting and stabilising a flexible exchange rate by increasing policy rate 400bps, fiscal responsibility laws and revised banking laws
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9.9 Foreign Direct Investment
Inflow of FDI into Mongolia during 2005 2007 was equivalent to the total level of direct investment received throughout 1990-2004. Net value in 2007 was 500 million USD, 67% of which was accounted for by mining alone and 22% by trade and food. FDI, $ billion 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010(f) 2011(f) 2012(f) 2013(f) 2014(f)
FDI is expected to total around $11 billion over the next 4 years
Source: Trade and Development Bank
9.10 Currency A flexible exchange rate regime was adopted in early 2009. Prior to 2005, when exports were insignificant, the manufacturing industry was almost non-existent, the overall supply of products came primarily from imports, and the supply of international reserves were highly deficient, the de facto peg of the MNT against USD in all probability was the most sensible way of protecting the currency from continuous depreciation. MNT second best performing currency against the dollar in 2010 Recently, with the increasing amount of mining related foreign capital flowing into the country, the Mongolian Tugrik started appreciating. In December 2010, the MNT/USD rate gained in value 15% since January 2010, when it was 1,446, which made it the second best-performing currency against the dollar in 2010. EXCHANGE RATE, MNT/USD 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 Jan04 Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 P a g e | 47
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10 Banking Sector
14 commercial banks active in Mongolia, of which the biggest are Golomt Bank, Xac bank, Khan Bank and TDB (Trade & Development Bank)
14 commercial banks, 188 NBFIs, 207 saving & credit (S&C) cooperatives
According to the Trade and Development Bank, the Mongolian financial sector consists of 14 commercial banks, 188 NBFIs and 207 S&C (saving and credit) Cooperatives. NBFIs provide similar products and services to banks such as loans to small borrowers, money transfers and FX trading, although they do not take deposits. S&C Cooperatives mostly provide micro-finance lending.
10.1 Background During the transition from Soviet style mono-banking to commercial banking, several banking crises occurred in 1994, 1996 and 1998 due to high levels of nonperforming loans. Mongolias banking industry grew from a centrally planned, soviet-style single bank system in which the State Bank of Mongolia performed all banking duties within the country. As Mongolia transitioned into a free-market economy in 1991, the first steps taken by the government to reform the financial sector were the development of a two-tier banking system in which the Central Bank controls the activities of state-owned and commercial banks, who in turn took over all lending activities to the public. The commercial banks that emerged inherited nonperforming loans from the former state bank and also approved loans to poorly performing enterprises. Several banking crises occurred during the transition period in Mongolia in 1994, 1996 and 1998 as increasing NPLs damaged the solvency of the banking system. Many banks faced severe liquidity issues and public confidence in the banking system fell. In addition, institutional weaknesses in the new banks, inadequate regulatory frameworks and general macroeconomic problems resulted in eventual deposit runs. To restore confidence in the banks, the Government initiated financial sector reforms, promoting an efficient financial system. Previously insolvent banks were rehabilitated, state ownership in banks gradually divested and foreign ownership in the banking sector increased to help improve competition and efficiency. 2006: reckless lending of S&Cs led to flight of funds to safe commercial banks 2009: Anod Bank closure and Zoos Bank into state-ownership due to liquidity issues The reckless lending practices resulted in collapse and closure of many S&C Cooperatives in 2006 and ever since there has been a flight of funds from NBFIs and S&C Cooperatives to commercial banks considered safe deposit holders. In 2006, the FRC was formed by the Government to regulate all financial institutions, with the exception of commercial banks which remained under the Bank of Mongolias supervision.
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10.2 Banking sector performance during 2008/2009 financial crisis In 2009, the total assets of the banking sector grew by 21.1% $3.57bn from the previous year, of which foreign currency appreciation was responsible for 13.3 out of the 21 percent of this growth. The liquidity of banks became an issue due to the economic downturn, the insolvency of Anod Bank, and tugrik depreciation which lasted until Q2 2009. BANKING SECTOR ASSETS AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 3,500 3,000 Total assets, $ million1 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: 1. Exchange rate as of 31 Dec 2009 Source: Bank of Mongolia The govt guarantee on deposits reduced outflow of deposits The rate of decline in deposits, which had begun to decrease in October 2008, began to slow as a result of the governments blanket guarantee on deposits, and they soon reached pre-crisis levels of $2bn. However, Zoos Banks loan portfolio deteriorated significantly, being unable to fully commit to repayment of customers' money because of violating the limit of a single borrowers exposure, and in November 2009 was taken into state ownership. However, the collapse did not negatively affect the overall confidence of depositors, because in 2009 total deposits totalled $1.46bn and grew by 34.5%. To provide liquidity support, the Bank of Mongolia extended interbank loans of $77.6m to banks via new financial instruments such as reverse repo, collateralized loan and foreign currency swaps, and consequently the acid ratio of the banking sector grew by 16.6 percentage points to 38.3% in 2009 compared to 2008. The Mongolian government put a total of $53m on deposit into three banks, all of which were repaid by the end of 2009. Total funding of $66.25m was given to 5 banks, who in turn lent $44.9m to 23 companies to support the gold mining activities and improve their liquidity. Until 25 November 2012, the governments blanket guarantee covers all money on deposit. Although this has beneficial effects for the banking system, the potential costs for the government (up to $2.5bn or 40% of GDP) could place pressure on the state budget.
th
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total assets/GDP ratio, %
Bank deposits grew by 34.5% in 2009
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10.3 Strengthening of the Financial System Bank examinations more driven by risk assessments Degree of prudence in the financial system in Mongolia has increased over the last ten years, and particular focus has been placed on detecting potential problems relating to loans. Some of the measures taken by the central bank include: introducing prudential norms, better enforcement and supervision, loan classification and loan loss provisioning systems. Banks undergo risk assessments, loan loss reserve requirements have increased (1% reserve for performing loans, 5% for overdue loans up from 1%). Loans are classified as overdue if the interest payments are overdue, not just on whether the principal is up to date. Capital adequacy principles for banks in Mongolia are very similar to international standards, and prudential norms were introduced to the Mongolian banking sector in 1996. For the tier 1 ratio, the minimum capital adequacy for commercial banks is currently 6% and the total capital ratio is 12%. These figures have increased from 2% and 4% respectively. The Central Bank also increased the minimum paid-in capital required for commercial banks to the current level of $6.5m and failure to comply results in revocation of the banks license. 2005: Financial stability committee To monitor the stability of the financial system, a financial stability committee was established in 2005. The committee ensures public awareness of possible financial crises, interacts directly with the management of financial institutions, and gives financial support when needed. Total deposits in the banking system from 2003-2009 increased 5x from $460 million to $2.42 billion and had further increased to $2.87 billion by mid 2010. Similarly, loans which totalled $360 million in 2003, grew to $2.15 billion in 2009 at a CAGR of 35% for the six year period, and had further increased to $2.4 billion by mid 2010. There is however still room for banks to lend more since the present liquidity in the banking system remains above the minimum regulatory level of 12%. Banking sector capital (prepaid tax deducted) reached $190 million at the end of 2009, and increased by 21% to $226 million by mid 2010. The risk weighted capital adequacy ratio for the whole banking system (one of the main indicators of sectors ability to withstand risk) stood at 14% by mid 2010, exceeding the minimum central bank requirement of 12%. Regulations have been tightened on lending to related and other parties, and total loans to a single related party must not exceed 5% of a banks total capital, while total loans to a single borrower must not exceed 20% of the banks total capital.
Loan reserve requirements increased
From 2003-2009, deposits grew 5 fold, loans grew 6 fold
Banks could further increase their loan portfolios Capital adequacy ratio for banking system (mid 2010) = 14%
Max loan exposure to single borrower = 20% of banks total capital
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10.4 Deposits and Loans The following table sets forth the year-on-year credit and deposit growths of the banking sector: LOANS AND DEPOSITS AS OF 31 DECEMBER $ millions, except percentages 2003 Loans % yoy Deposits % yoy Loan/Deposit, % 353 91.0 457 63.7 77.2 2004 485 37.4 563 23.2 86.1 2005 688 41.9 814 44.6 84.5 2006 977 42.0 1,081 32.8 90.4 2007 1,644 68.3 1,781 64.8 92.3 2008 2,108 28.2 1,782 0.1 118.3 2009 2,124 0.8 2,385 33.8 89.1 2010
1
2,350 13.9 2,825 30.5 83.2
Assumed MNT/USD rate = 1250. Deposits include current, savings and time deposits. Source: Bank of Mongolia, mid 2010 TBD, Golomt Bank, Khan Bank & Xac Bank are the most significant commercial banks There are 4 banks who dominate commercial and retail banking in Mongolia who extend approximately 70% of all loans 73% of all deposits. These banks are TDB, Golomt Bank, Khan Bank and Xac Bank, and their market shares are shown in the following table: TDB Assets Loans Deposits 16.2% 14.9% 16.7% Golomt Bank 23.8% 22.9% 18.4% Khan Bank 28.5% 22.8% 33.9% Xac Bank 6.6% 9.2% 3.7%
Source: Public filings made by each bank, mid 2010 TOTAL LOANS OUTSTANDING ($m)
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Oct-97 Oct-00 Oct-03 Oct-06 Apr-99 Apr-02 Apr-05 Apr-08 Oct-09 Jan-97 Jul-98 Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09
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Largely increasing deposits into banks Appreciation of the tugrik, commercial bank competition, rising incomes and improved macroeconomic conditions have all helped increase bank deposits in recent times. From 2003 to 2009, total deposits grew by a CAGR of 31.7% from $464 million to $2.42 billion and further increased to $2.86 billion in 2010. Current billion account balances totalled $840 million while time deposits totalled $1.69 billion by mid 2010.
DISTRIBUTION OF LOAN PORTFOLIO BY ECONOMIC SECTOR 5.8% 26.0% 13.2% Agriculture Mining Manufacturing 15.5% 7.1% Construction Motor vehicles Real estate 18.0% 14.4% Other
Source: Bank of Mongolia 63% of credit extended to private sector 36% to individuals 1.1.% to public sector In 2001 the Government relaxed regulation on private real estate ownership, which led to an expansion in credit for housing. In 2010, 63% of credit was lent to the private sector, 36% to individuals and a mere 1.1% of loans were extended to private the public sector. The rate of default was 8.4% in 2010 (in 1999 this peaked at 51%). 2.50 Total loans outstanding, $ billion1 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
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Note: 1.Assumed exchange rate: 1USD=1250MNT Source: World Bank
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10.4.1 Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) In 2009, number of default loans increased 2.8 fold The 2008/2009 financial crises and economic slowdown led to a decline in turnover and an increase in the rate of defaulting loans. As of 2009, NPLs increased by $60 million in the construction sector, $48 million in the manufacturing sector, $33 million in trading, and $28 million in the mining sector and total number of NPLs went up almost three fold within 2009, reaching $435 million. The NPL ratio in the year went from 7.2% to 20%, eroding bank profits, who in turn limited extension of new loans due to the increased levels of risk. NPL ratio (% of total) Other sectors Wholesale and retail Construction Manufacturing Mining and quarrying Agriculture 0 Source: World Bank 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Loans (% of total)
In 2009, NPL ratio grew by 12.8 percentage points to 20%
10.5 Banking Interest Rates
INTER-BANK INTEREST RATES, % 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10
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Commercial bank interest rates offered for MNT sight deposits are persistently higher (approximately twice the rate) than those offered for USD sight deposits.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF CURRENT ACCOUNT INTEREST RATES, % Current account IR, MNT 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Apr-10 Dec-08 Feb-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Current account IR, USD
Commercial bank interest rates offered for MNT time deposits are persistently higher (approximately twice the rate) than those offered for USD time deposits. WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF TIME DEPOSIT INTEREST RATES (12 MONTHS), % Time Deposit IR, MNT 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Time Deposit IR, USD
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While back in February 1998 it cost 48% to borrow money from a bank in MNT and around 40% in USD, in February 2010 the monthly loan interest rates fell to around 20% in MNT and 14% in USD. AVERAGE MONTHLY LOAN RATES, % Loan rate, MNT 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Feb-98 Nov-98 Aug-99 May-00 Feb-01 Nov-01 Aug-02 May-03 Feb-04 Nov-04 Aug-05 May-06 Feb-07 Nov-07 Aug-08 May-09 Feb-10 1.7% Loan rate, USD Paid rate
Assumed exchange rate throughout this section: 1USD = 1250MNT
10.6 Bank Asset Quality Three banks dominate the Mongolian banking sector, constituting around 69% of the countrys total banking assets. According to Trade and Development Bank estimates, in August 2010 loans totalled around $2.4 billion, performing loans and non-performing loans (NPLs) grew by $268 million (16.1%) and $46 million (16.5%) respectively, while past-due loans declined by $29 million (25.5%), all compared to the same period the previous year. The top four commercial banks non-performing loan ratios fell to 3.7% on average in H2 2010 from 4.9% in H2 2009. Such good news implies improvement of asset quality in Mongolia. TDB Impairment Ratio 5.0% Golomt Bank 2.5% Khan Bank 5.4% Xac Bank
H2 2010: Total loans: $2.4 bn Performing loans grew 16% yoy NPLs grew 16.5% yoy
Source: Public filings made by each bank, mid 2010
Q1 2010: Agric. sector loans = $124m
In 2009 the sectors with greatest loans were retail, manufacturing, mining and quarrying, jointly accounting for 61% of total credit. Agriculture sector loans have increased at a 40% CAGR since 2004 and reached $124 million in Q1 2010. The
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table below shows loans and deposits in the banking sector as percentage of GDP for 2008 and 2009. 2008 Loans (% of GDP) Deposits (% of GDP) 40.1 36.3 2009 37.0 52.6
Source: Bank of Mongolia, EIU Mongolia Country Report August 2010
ASSET QUALITY BY INDUSTRY, AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2008 Performing Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities Construction Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Transportation and storage Accommodation and food services activities Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support service activities Public administration and defence; compulsory social security Education Human health and social work activities Other Total 84.7% 74.2% 90.9% 88.4% Past due 4.2% 9.6% 3.5% 11.1% Nonperforming 11.1% 16.3% 5.6% 0.5% Performing 73.3% 78.0% 76.0% 76.8% 2009 Past due 2.1% 4.0% 4.2% 3.5% Nonperforming 24.6% 18.0% 19.8% 19.6%
96.9% 83.4% 92.1% 81.7% 95.2% 82.9% 94.5% 92.5% 94.7% 92.6% 99.5% 72.8% 94.8% 93.3% 89.3%
0.3% 6.0% 2.2% 1.1% 1.4% 8.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.6% 3.6%
2.8% 10.5% 5.8% 17.2% 3.3% 8.5% 5.4% 5.9% 5.3% 5.5% 0.5% 25.5% 3.6% 4.1% 7.1%
98.0% 62.1% 80.0% 67.6% 87.9% 91.9% 85.9% 81.9% 85.9% 74.9% 97.6% 73.7% 90.6% 91.4% 78.0%
0.3% 7.7% 4.1% 7.7% 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 6.8% 12.5% 15.2% 0.6% 3.3% 1.8% 2.2% 4.6%
1.7% 30.2% 15.9% 24.7% 8.7% 7.8% 13.7% 11.3% 1.5% 9.9% 1.8% 23.1% 7.5% 6.4% 17.4%
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10.7 Banking System Capitalisation Minimum cap. requirement = $6.4mn 2010 general cap. adequacy ratio = 14% (2.3% above required) The minimum capital requirement for commercial banks ordered by the Bank of Mongolia is MNT 8.0 billion ($6.4 million). Mongolian banks are in general very well capitalised and according to the Trade and Development Bank indicators, the banking systems average capital adequacy ratio increased to 14% in 2010 (2.3% above the minimum requirement) from 13.3% in 2008. TDB Capital Adequacy Ratio 13.9% Golomt Bank 14.5% Khan Bank 17.2% Xac Bank 13.9%
Source: Public filings made by each bank, mid 2010
10.8 Banking Law of Mongolia (2010) The following information has been provided by the Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia. Commercial banks and their activities are governed by the Banking Law of Mongolia. A new Banking Law was adopted in March 2010 for better implementation of state policies and stability and efficiency of the banking sector.
10.8.1 Summary of the Ammended Banking Law Transfer of a Banks Shares Banks must inform the Bank of Mongolia (BoM) in the following cases: if the size or structure of their share capital changes if a party attempts to become a shareholder with significant influence in a bank, or an existing shareholder with significant influence changes the size or structure of their ownership interest in the bank A shareholder with significant influence in one bank is not allowed to become a shareholder with significant influence in another bank, along with related parties.
Capital requirements Minimum amount of paid-in capital for banks as determined by the BoM is MNT 8.0 billion ($6.4 million at 1USD = 1250 MNT exchange rate). A bank may distribute dividends only if, following the dividend payment, it will continue to meet the mandatory prudential ratios set by the BoM A bank must quantify decreases/increases in its capital in accordance with the profits earned or losses accrued from banking activities and fluctuations in the size of its compulsory reserve fund
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Allocation of funds from the reserve fund will be administered by the BoM and the Ministry of Finance (MoF)
Law on Deposit Guarantee (2008) In line with the Deposit Guarantee Law effective until November 2012, the Mongolian Government must insure all current accounts and deposit accounts of citizens and legal entities at Mongolian commercial banks Fully covers the risk of non-repayment by banks Deposits of related persons, depositors or holders of subordinated or convertible debts and deposits from the interbank market or from foreign banks and financial institutions are excluded from this scheme
Law on Executing Domestic Settlement Transactions by National Currency (2009) All payments and settlements within the territory of Mongolia must be conducted in MNT (domestic transactions cannot be made in foreign currency) MNT contracts can not be indexed to any foreign exchange index Savings deposits, loans from bank and non-bank entities, other equivalent services, and derivative financial agreements and their obligations can be expressed and executed in foreign currencies
Accounting Law (2001) All business entities must adopt and adhere to international accounting standards, and submit audited quarterly financial statements and reports to the MoF MoF and accounting associations are responsible for formulation of generally accepted accounting principles and implementation of international accounting standards The Accounting Council is responsible for developing accounting forms and methodology, and for training of professional accountants MoF is responsible for implementation of reforms to accounting and auditing systems
Mongolia has three accounting associations: The Accounting Council (26 members), The National Association of Certified Public Accountants (200 associate unlicensed accountants) The Union of Finance Specialists Association (MoF accountants)
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10.9 Banking Sector 2010 Summary Trade and Development Bank inferences inform that: NPLs as % of total loans fell to 17% Levels of NPLs were high Real i.r. plummeted Bank lending more concentrated MNT deposits rose 51% yoy Nominal i.r. remained high In Q3 2010 non-performing loans with arrears in principals as percentage of total outstanding loans declined to 17% from 25% in November 2009. General levels of NPLs were considerably high throughout 2010. Real interest rates plummeted, resulting in negative returns, especially on depository accounts, due to inflationary pressure. Bank lending further concentrated with around 50 largest borrowers accounting for approximately 30% of total loans or $690 million. MNT deposits continued to rise reaching $1.3 billion in mid 2010 (51% increase yoy), despite falling real interest rates on deposits, owing to the Deposit Guarantee Law and greater currency appreciation expectations Nominal interest rates on lending and borrowing remained high as banks needed capital due to liquidity problems
10.10 Banking sector prospects Weaknesses of the banking sector remains a priority Business activities increased in 2010. Nevertheless, coping with the fundamental weaknesses of the banking sector in Mongolia remains a top priority for the officials in charge. Based on the experience gained from the recent turmoil, the necessity to create a sound banking system to cushion against future frictions in the economy is now deemed to be a matter of utmost importance. On account of the ongoing mining boom and expected economic prosperity, commercial banks in Mongolia at present have the possibility to develop a firm basis for continued growth by improving their internal control, corporate governance and risk management solutions. Demand for credit will substantially increase in the coming five years as greater necessity for capital will spread across all sectors in the economy. Commercial banks must be prepared to meet the rising demand in order to ensure that the flow of funds in and out of the country will not circumvent the local banks. The collapse Anod and Zoos sent an essential signal that financial institutions in Mongolia have to be restructured to a certain degree. The Bank of Mongolia is working on implementing a better supervisory system, such that each banks operations will be examined independently and in stages. Protection provided by the Deposit Guarantee Law is not indefinite. The scope of this move taken by the government to rescue the banking industry on the verge of its collapse has now been confined. According to the July 2010 amendments to the Deposit Guarantee Law, banks will have to pay a fee equivalent to 0.5% of cashable deposits in order to be entitled for future governments protection against insolvency. The extent of the guarantee has also been limited, the following items have been removed from the coverage:
Great possibilities in front of commercial banks
Credit demand will increase
Banks must be restructured Increasing supervision from BoM
Limited coverage of Deposit Guarantee
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current accounts and deposits assembled from the interbank market, foreign banks and financial institutions current accounts and deposits of individuals and their related parties who have loans and other assets guarantees and letters of credit and other contingent liabilities in a specific bank cashable deposits with interest rate that exceeds the BoMs refinancing rate
Amendments to Deposit Guarantee in line with international principles
These amendments were made in line with international principles, such that excessive risk taking by commercial banks is restrained and fiscal burden to taxpayers is reduced, preventing against ill-treatment of regulations in favour of commercial banks self interest.
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The Central Bank
11 The Central Bank

The Bank of Mongolia (BoM) is the central bank of Mongolia. It reports to Parliament and is independent from the Government.
According to the Bank of Mongolia, their main objectives are to formulate and implement monetary policy by regulating money, supervising banking activities, organising inter-bank payments and settlements, holding and managing the States foreign currency reserves and issuing currency into circulation. The Bank is headed by a Governor, managed by a 12-man Board of Directors and has a representative office in London.
11.1 Bank of Mongolia Monetary Policy Final decision making at the BoM on monetary policy is done by the President of the Bank, although his decision is supposed to be based on the advice of the 12 strong management board. Board meetings are regularly held and discuss the following issues: Changing or keeping the policy rate Defining the principles of open market operations Defining the amount of long term central bank bills Changing or keeping the reserve ratio requirements Approving or introducing new policies or regulations on monetary policy, and additions or amendments on existing regulations Discussing state monetary policy, monitoring and evaluating current results, presenting the decisions to the parliament and getting approval Forecasting economic indicators Balancing foreign exchange rates according to monetary policy
11.2 Bank of Mongolia Policy Rate In the case of the Bank of Mongolia, monetary policy works by taking excess money out of the economy and placing it in the Central Bank Bill. The interest rate on the Central Banks 7 day bill has been named the official Bank of Mongolia policy rate since July 2007. When this rate moves it affects the interest rates offered by commercial banks, and it is not only the indicator of the monetary direction of Mongolia but also the inter-bank rate. The Central Bank bill has a 7 day term at fixed interest and is traded every Wednesday on the inter-bank market. All other rates are derived from the policy rate:
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Repo rate (15%) = policy rate +4% Collateralized loan rate (19%) = policy rate +8% Overnight rate (20%) = policy rate +9% Source: Bank of Mongolia Policy Rate Jul 07 6.40% Oct 07 7.40% Nov 07 8.40% Mar 08 9.75% Sep 08 10.25% (inflation = 34%) Mar 09 14.00% Sep 09 10.00% Apr 10 11.00% In July 2007, the initial Bank of Mongolia policy rate was 6.4%. In October and November of 2007 the Bank increased it by 1%, in March 2008 it increased 1.35% and by a further 0.5% in September 2008, and thus it reached 10.25%. By November 2008, it was 9.75%. By the end of 2008/start of 2009 the global slowdown resulted in inflation reaching 34% in Mongolia, and so the BoM rate was hiked to 14%. The Bank rate was subsequently reduced in May, June and September of 2009 to 10%. Due to the particularly harsh winter of 2009/2010 (dzud), from April 2010 the Human Development Fund started to allocate money to people, resulting in rising inflation. The Bank of Mongolia increased the policy rate by 1%, and it is now at 11%.
BANK OF MONGOLIA POLICY RATE, % 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10
11.3 Central Banks non-standing facilities
11.3.1 Collateralized loan BoM can provide 90 day loans to banks in financial difficulty. 2009 collateralised loans = $84m Banks that have good long-term liquidity but get into short term problems can be lent money up to 90 days, but with collateral backing. The collateralised loan rate was 8% higher than the policy rate at the start of 2010. In 2009, the Central Banks collateralised loan balance was $84 million. $77 million was extended according to The Deposit Insurance Law and $6.3 million of it extended according to Collateralised Loan Regulation
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11.4 Objectives of monetary policy No restrictions on inflows or outflows of foreign currency in Mongolia A goal of the Bank of Mongolia is to insure the stability of the Tugrik. The capital account is open in Mongolia, meaning there are no restrictions on inflow or outflow of international currencies or international investment or trade. An open capital account, low inflation control through interest rate mechanisms and stability of the exchange rate cannot all be simultaneously controlled as they are not all mutually exclusive, and only a combination of 2 can be controlled. Because inflation and exchange rate stability usually takes five or more years to harmonise, the BoM only focuses on keeping inflation in check and lets the exchange rate be determined by market forces. CPI is not supposed to exceed 8% according to the State Monetary Policy Guidelines (2010). If CPI remains lower than 8% and exchange rate fluctuations are kept at a sensible level then Inflation and exchange rate stability are assumed, respectively.
11.5 Bank of Mongolia Standing Facilities
11.5.1 Overnight loan An overnight loan which starts before the closing of the clearing transaction and ends at the beginning of the next clearing transaction is available at a rate of 9% higher then the policy rate, at present.
11.5.2 Repo financing $367m was given through repo financing in 2009 Loans from the central bank with a Repo rate 4% higher than the policy rate and a term of up to 90 days can be lent to commercial banks with collateral of central bank bills, government bonds, or bonds of the Mortgage Corporation of Mongolia (MIK). $367 million was given through repo financing in 2009 at an average rate of 16.84%.
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11.6 Central Bank Bond Rate CENTRAL BANK BOND RATE, % (1998-2010) 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan-98 Oct-98 Apr-00 Jan-01 Oct-01 Apr-03 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Apr-09 Jan-10 Jul-99 Jul-02 Jul-08
Source: Bank of Mongolia Mongolian bond market highly underdeveloped The Mongolian economy is 95% reliant on the banking industry, and the bond market is very primitive. As a result, government bonds, despite being the least risky investment vehicle, are hardly ever used. The Central Bank Bond is preferred.
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Mongolian Taxation System
12 Mongolian Taxation System

The general rate of tax in Mongolia is 10% income tax for individuals and corporation earnings under MNT 3bn ($2.4m) and 25% on corporation earnings over MNT 3bn. VAT is 10%
12.1 General Taxation A taxpayer is the Mongolia tax system comprises of taxes, fees and payments. The State Great Khural (Parliament) of Mongolia is authorized to introduce or amend taxes by law.
12.1.1 Taxpayers The following individual, business entity or organization, which have taxable income, property in possession, and rights: 1) A citizen of Mongolia; 2) A foreign resident and a stateless person in the territory of Mongolia, a non-resident person who gains income in Mongolia; 3) Foreign and domestic business entity, organization and fund in the territory of Mongolia, legal person which is not located in the territory of Mongolia, but gains income in this country; 4) A Representative Office of a foreign business entity or organization which gains income in Mongolia.
12.2 Corporate Income tax
12.2.1 Taxpayers A corporate entity is a taxpayer, provided it produces revenue subject to tax at the end of each accounting year or is bound to pay tax under this law, notwithstanding the absence of taxable profits. A taxpayer defined above can be either a permanent resident or nonresident taxpayer of Mongolia. Permanent resident taxpayer in Mongolia means the following corporate entity: A corporate entity incorporated under the laws of Mongolia; A foreign corporate entity with its head office located in Mongolia;
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Non-resident taxpayer in Mongolia is the following corporate entity: A foreign corporate entity that conducts its business in Mongolia within the frame of its representative office; A foreign corporate entity that earns income in Mongolia in a form other than that set forth in the previous bullet point A representative office means any of the following that partially or wholly carries out business activity of a foreign corporate entity: Branch (unit, section); Plant; Trade and/or service unit; A mine that extracts oil, natural gas or other natural resources.
12.2.2 Tax Rate If annual taxable income is 0-3 billion MNT, it shall be taxed at the rate of 10 percent. If annual taxable income exceeds 3 billion MNT, it shall be taxed at 300 million MNT plus 25% of income exceeding 3 billion MNT. Taxpayer's income is taxed at the following rates: Income from dividend at 10%; Income from royalty at 10%; Income from gaming and lottery at 40%; Income from sale or rental of erotic publication, book, and video recording and erotic performance at 40%; Income from sale of immovable property at 2%; Income from interest at 10%; Income from sale of right at 30%; If a representative office of a foreign company transfers its profits overseas, the transferred income at the rate of 20%
The following income of a non-resident-taxpayer earned in Mongolia is taxed at the rate of 20%: Dividend income received from a corporate entity registered and operating in Mongolia; Loan interest and guarantee payments Income from royalty, leasing interest, payment for administrative expenses, rent, management expenses, and income from use of tangible and intangible asset; Income from goods sold, work performed and services provided in the territory of Mongolia.
12.2.3 Tax exemption The following income of a taxpayer is tax exempt: Interest of government notes payable (bond); Income stated in paragraph 1. of the previous section and income from divided earned by a non-resident.
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Taxpayer operating in the territory of Mongolia under a product-sharing contract in oil industry and derived from sale of its share of product; Income of a cooperative earned from sale of its member's products through intermediary services.
12.3 Personal income tax law of Mongolia
12.3.1 Taxpayer
A citizen of Mongolia, foreign national and stateless person who resides in Mongolia and earns income subject to tax for the tax year or who is liable to pay tax, even though the same income is not earned, must be a taxpayer. The taxpayer is classified as a resident taxpayer of Mongolia and nonresident taxpayer of Mongolia.
A resident taxpayer of Mongolia The following individuals are a resident taxpayer of Mongolia: An individual with a residence in Mongolia; An individual who resides in Mongolia for 183 or more days in a tax year; A civil servant of Mongolia appointed to work overseas. A foreign national appointed at a foreign diplomatic mission, consulate, the United Nations, and their branches and his/her family members who reside in Mongolia are not considered residents of Mongolia.
A non-resident taxpayer of Mongolia A taxpayer who does not possess a place for residence and did not reside in Mongolia for more than 183 days in a given year.
12.3.2 Tax rate and amount A tax rate of 10% is imposed on the annual amount of the income of anyone who is specified. The following tax rates are imposed on the income specified in the following provisions of this law: Tax rate on income from sale of immovable property is 2%; Tax rate on income earned by creating a scientific, literature, and art work, innovating a new work, product prototype, and advantageous design, organizing and participating in a sports competition and cultural performance, and on income from rewards from a sports competition and cultural performance, and prizes is 5%;
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Tax rate on income from quiz, gambling, and lottery is 40%
12.4 Value Added Tax (VAT) Value Added Tax at the rate of 10% is imposed on the supply of taxable goods and services in Mongolia, and on imports into Mongolia.
12.4.1 Scope of VAT VAT is levied on the following in Mongolia: Work performed and services rendered in Mongolia; All goods imported into Mongolia to be sold or used; and Goods exported from Mongolia for use or consumption outside Mongolia.
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Mongolian Stock Exchange
13 Mongolian Stock Exchange

The second smallest bourse in the world by market cap, yet the second best performing market in the world in 2010
13.1 Overview 1991 MSE established 475 companies initially floated after privatization of state property In 1991, the Mongolian Government established the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) with the intention to implement its Privatization Policy as a base of transition from a central planned economy to a market economy. During the first phase of privatization between 1991 and 1995, $17m of state assets were privatized by distributing vouchers worth $8 to every citizen of Mongolia, and 475 companies were floated on the MSE. As the Mongolian Parliament enacted the law of Securities and Exchange and The Corporate Law in 1994 and 1995 respectively, the secondary market began by establishing 28 brokerage firms. But during the start of the secondary market between 1996 and 2004, shares worth over MNT38.8bn ($32.1m) had been traded and a few people had bought a large proportion of the shares, taking single control of the companies. As of the end of November 2010, there are 325 companies listed on the MSE and over 80% of stocks are held by a few people or free float of the overall market is lower than 20%. There are around 30 stocks actively traded on the MSE. NUMBER OF LISTED COMPANIES
475 458 436 430 418 410 401 403 402 395 392 387 383 376 358
1994: Law of Securities and Exchange 1995: The Corporate Law 1996-2004: $32m shares traded in this period. A few had gained large stakes in the companies Nov 2010: 325 companies on MSE, only 30 stocks actively traded
325
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Financial Regulatory Committee (FRC) Since 1996: $233m raised in govt bond, corporate bond and public offerings Since 1996, MNT275.7bn ($233.2m) has been raised by issuing a government bond, a corporate bond and a public offering of shares through the MSE. The first government bond trading was held in 1996 and corporate bond trading was
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introduced in 2001. To date, government bonds worth MNT200.2bn ($171m) and corporate bonds worth of MNT12.9bn ($11m) have been issued. GOVERNMENT BONDS, MNT BILLION 250.0 200.2 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.1 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 1996-2010 12.92 2001-2010 11.1 30.8 41.7 21.7 39.6 12.5 6.8 4.5 1.5 30.0
Source: MSE CORPORATE BONDS, MNT BILLION 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
2.96 2.74 1.20 2001 2002 2003
1.81
2.60 0.69 0.42 0.50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: MSE 14 IPOs raising $51m: 1 IPO was unsuccessful Since the first IPO on the MSE completed in 2005 by Hotel Mongolia, there have been 14 IPOs raising a total of $51m. Out of them, 1 IPO was unsuccessful, two companies were bankrupted and one company changed operation.
2004
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FUND RAISING THROUGH IPO, MNT BILLION 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005-2010 8.42 0.04 2.70 0.40 16.95 34.01 62.52
Source: MSE Market Cap/GDP = 15% Although in recent years the MSE has had formal connections with over 10 Exchanges, signed an MOU with 7 stock exchanges, become a member of Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchanges (FEAS) and the Asia Oceania Stock Exchanges Federation (AOSEF), the Mongolian Stock Exchange is still the second smallest bourse in the world after Laos. Penetration rate is very low compared with other emerging and frontier markets, with a Market Cap/GDP ratio of only 15%, but the Mongolian stock exchange has already stepped towards the verge of a new development era. Recently, the London Stock Exchange won the bid for tender of the management of the MSE with its reforming vision that includes normal custody, electronic trading and audited financials published in English.
LSE recently won bid for tender of management
13.2 The second best performing market in the world Top-20 index up 6 fold in 3yrs The MSEs benchmark index called Top-20 surged six-fold over the last 3 years due to the following very positive factors: 1) Enormous, world-class mineral projects such as Oyu Tolgoi, the largest copper deposit in Asia, and Tavan Tolgoi, the second largest, undeveloped coal deposit in the world, are expected to bring in 2 to 3 times the current GDP in direct investment into this small, narrowly based economy, causing a significant spill-over effect. 2) Investors optimism about the local listing of at least 10% of the strategically important deposits stake in accordance with the new mining law. 3) Inflow of foreign funds into capital market on the back of further privatization of MSE listed coal mines which are undervalued (enterprise value to reserve ratio of lower than 1x). In the short term, the biggest risk of portfolio investment into the MSE is the intention of major shareholders of some blue-chips to buy out shares cheaply.
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In last year: Tavan Tolgoi (biggest company on MSE, coking coal) up 300% ($170m) Shivee Ovoo up 325% ($115m) Baganuur up 185% ($110m) Sharyn Gol up 525% ($52m) The best contributors to the growth in 2010 were mostly coal miners such as Tavan Tolgoi (known as small TT), the biggest company on the MSE and a coking coal mine exporting coal to China, which surged $170m or 300% in the last year. Shivee Ovoo, one of the strategically important deposits of Mongolia, rose $115m or 325% in the last year. Baganuur, another strategically important deposit and the second largest company at on the MSE, increased $110m or 185%. Sharyn Gol, the first coal mine among the MSE listed mining companies which made an internationally recognized JORC resource statement on their deposit, is up $52m or 525% YTD. On the MSE, there are just 15 mining companies, out of them 10 are coal miners and the remaining 5 are geological exploration companies. But only 6 of them are over $5m market cap companies. In addition to the potential development of the domestic capital market, there are 18 mining companies operating in the Mongolian mining sector listed on the international stock exchanges, worth over $29bn or 5 times the Mongolian GDP, and all Mongolian leading business groups are still not listed on the domestic market.
15 mining companies on MSE
Additional 18 mining companies operating in Mongolia listed abroad
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14 Mining
Mongolia is considered one of the last mining frontiers.
14.1 Mongolias resources remain mostly untapped
Mining Sector
Only 27% of the Mongolian land has been mapped to a scale of 1:50000
Possibilities to invest in many large-scale investments, including Tavan Tolgoi
Mongolia is now in the spotlight for something other than Chinggis Khans name. Recently explored Mongolias vast mineral resources have caught the attention of many investors. The history of resource identification goes back to when British exploration teams first came to the country over a century ago. During the era teams when Mongolia has been a Republic and a satellite state of the Soviet Union, Russian scientists discovered numerous mineral deposits with significant reserves. Some of them were brought into function, including Erdenet Mining Corporation (EMC), a copper concentrate producing Mongolia Russian joint venture, located in Mongolia-Russian the city of Erdenet. Today the copper factory remains a key constituent of the government revenue and is one of the biggest copper deposits in the world. copper Although the Russians did some work, much remains to be done. Only around 27% of Mongolian land has been mapped to a scale of 1:50000, therefore, the resources remain mostly untapped. The Oyu Tolgoi deposit has been named the biggest undeveloped copper and gold deposit in the world. Apart from Oyu Tolgoi, biggest there is a good number of other large scale investments, including the Tavan large-scale Tolgoi coal deposit, studied later in this section, which is about to be privatised in 2011. Since the shift towards a market economy, the developments in the mining sector have been consistent, efficient and fast, especially throughout the past decade.
2006: Windfall Profit Tax set 1990: Mongolia opened: Foreign Investment Law passed 1998: Areva signs uranium exploration deal June 2002: Cameco gol buys Boroo gold
Jul 2008: Protests in Ulaanbaatar
2009: Windfall Profit Tax repealed
90 91
92
93
94
95
96
97 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10 Oct 2009: Chinese CIC invests $500 million in SGQ coal and $700 million in iron ore
1994: QGX Gold enters Mongolia
1997: Minerals Law passed
May 2000: Ivanhoe enters Mongolia
2004: Western Prospector enters Mongolia 2009: Chinese buy Western Prospector (uranium)
2009: Oyu Tolgoi investment agreement signed
Source: Business Council of Mongolia
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Estimated value of total reserves = $1.3trillion Mining sector: 81% of exports 32% of government revenue 30% of GDP Mongolia is rich in natural resources, especially in gold, copper, coal, uranium, molybdenum, tin, tungsten and oil deposits. The estimated value of total resources is $1.3 trillion. Among the commodities, coal, copper and gold have attracted the majority of investments thus far. While the agricultural sector was the former largest contributor to government revenue, the role of the mining sector in the economy continues to grow, making it the current major force behind Mongolias economic growth and development. Now the mining sector accounts for approximately 81% of Mongolias total exports, 32% of government revenue and 30% of GDP. The latest updates inform that the industry employs 45 thousand people in total, which represents around 5% of the countrys total work force. The governments attempt to create a favourable investment environment within the country through reformed tax regime and other legal frameworks is paying off. Numerous small and large-scale investors are being attracted to Mongolia these days, some are even willing to invest into very seed-stage projects. Involvement of mining giants like Rio Tinto, and interests of Peabody, Shenhua, Japanese and Korean consortiums to participate in the privatisation and development of the countrys largest coal deposit, all indicate towards Mongolia turning into one of the top performing mining investment destinations of today and tomorrow.
ROLE OF MINING SECTOR IN NATIONAL ECONOMY, IN % 100 In GDP In manufacturing industry In export
50
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: National Statistics Office
Annual Production Commodity Coal Copper Gold Iron ore Uranium 2006 8mt 0.37mt 22t 0.18mt 0 2007 8.8mt 0.37mt 17t 0.26mt 0 2008 9.8mt 0.36mt 15t 1.39mt 0 2009 13.2mt 0.37mt 10t 1.38mt 0
Proven Reserve 20bt 67.3 136t 264mt -
Probable Reserve 152bt 1.2bt 125,000t 1.6bt 62,000t
Source: National Statistics Office & Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
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MAJOR PLAYERS Coal ErdenesTavan Tolgoi SouthGobi Resources Energy Resources QGX Mongolia Energy Corp. Peabody Energy Aspire Mining Gobi Coal and Energy Prophecy Resource Corp. Xanadu Mines MAK Copper Erdenet Ivanhoe Mines/Rio Tinto Gold Centerra Gold MAK Western Prospector Cameco Areva Voyager Resources Iron ore Darkhan Steel Iron Mining International North Asia Resources Haranga Resources Altain Khuder Uranium Khan Resources Western Prospector Cameco Areva
REVENUE FROM EXPORTS, (M1-M8 2009 vs. M1-M8 2010), $ MILLION
600 500
500
485
2009
2010
Mining revenues climbed massively from 2009 - 2010
400 300 200 100 0 Gold Coal Crude oil Iron ore Molybdenum Fluoride Copper Zinc 133 85 98 137 35 41
Source: Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia
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14.2 Exploration and Geological Mapping The geological map for 99.1% of Mongolia has been produced at a scale of 1:200,000 The geological mapping of 27.1% of Mongolia based on the general exploration work has been carried out at a scale of 1:50,000 1:500,000 scale map covers the basic geology for hydro-survey of 84% of Mongolia 22.5% of Mongolia covered by gravimetric survey at scales of 1:200,000 and 1:100,000 The aerial magnetic survey has been conducted for 60% of Mongolia at a scale of 1:200,000 Two maps of scales of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 have been produced using aerial multi-spectral survey for 32% of Mongolia.
The geological mapping of 27.1% of Mongolia based on the general exploration work has been carried out at a scale of 1:50,000 Average 0.4% of the territory is subject to new mapping projects every year Source: Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
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The aerial magnetic survey has been conducted for 60% of Mongolia at a scale of 1:200,000 Source: Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
14.3
Licenses Exploration license Quantity Area, Ha million 22.89 16.08 38.97 Mining License Quantity 746 339 1,085 Area, Ha million 0.24 0.22 0.46
st
Total Quantity 3,318 1,426 4,744 Area, Ha million 23.13 16.30 39.43
Domestic Companies Foreign Companies Total
2,572 1,087 3,659
Source: Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia (1 Jan 2010)
Source: Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia
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14.4 Coal Mongolias number one export Coal
Coal is now Mongolias number one export. Initially miners were attracted to the countrys gold, copper and molybdenum reserves, however, the magnetism has shifted towards coal riches now, giving Mongolia the new title of The Saudi Arabia of Coal. The value of its immense coal reserves has increased threefold, as the country is located right in between two of the worlds biggest resource consumers, Russia and China. 30 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(f) 2012(f) COKING COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA, MILLION TONNES
Source: National Statistics Office and Trade and Development Bank COAL RESOURCES
Source: Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia Tavan Tolgoi: 6.4bn t coal Total: 152bn t coal By the amount of reserves, Tavan Tolgoi (TT) is Mongolias biggest coal deposit, with around 6.4 billion tonnes of coal, a quarter of which consists of high quality coking coal. Except for TT, there are many other attractive coal deposits and the total reserves of the country is estimated to be 152 billion tonnes. A majority of reserves, although proven, have not been developed due to lack of investment
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and infrastructure. Among the producing ones, the following are the most notable coal mines: Baganuur = 1.3bn t brown coal, supplies domestic market 1) The largest player in the economy and the main supplier to local consumers is Baganuur coal mine, containing an estimated reserve of 1.3 billion tonnes of brown coal. The government owns the majority of the company (The ownership structure is better explained in the Equity Research part of this report as the company is listed on the Mongolian Stock Exchange). Baganuur was founded during Soviet times. Due to government control and necessity to maintain the sale prices at artificially low levels for local consumers, Baganuur is currently operating at a production scale significantly below its potential and is incapable of spending capital on new equipments. The mine is, in general, suffering from under-investment as no investor is interested in a loss-generating, state controlled company. Baganuur is included in the list of state properties to be privatised in 2011-2012. 2) Foreign investors are mostly attracted to coking coal reserves of Mongolia, one of the main inputs to steel production, as there is growing demand coming from China. The PRC has stopped exporting coal in 2007 and its imports of coking coal grew from 8.5 million tonnes in 2008 to 50 million tonnes in 2010, representing 8% of the countrys total consumption. Mongolia Mining Corporations (formerly Energy Resources) advancements in coking coal production have attracted immense attention from global investors. The company, which is currently extracting coal from its 500 million tonnes Ukhaa Khudag deposit, located in the Tavan Tolgoi region, has grown tremendously since its establishment in 2005. The mine is located 245 km from the Mongolian-Chinese border. They were the first Mongolian company to be listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, raising $748 million (15% higher than the planned $650 million), in October 2010. Mongolia Mining Corporation has obtained all necessary permission to put a railway south to the Mongolian-Chinese border from their Ukhaa Khudag mine. The construction of a paved road by the company is under way and is expected to be completed in Q1 2011. 3) Another major private coal supplier is Mongolyn Alt Corp. (MAK). The company began operations in the gold sector, then expanded into coal extraction by obtaining the license for its Nariin Sukhait coal deposit situated 900 km south of Ulaanbaatar and 50 km from the Mongolian-Chinese border pass Shiveekhuren. Nariin Sukhait is an open-pit mine, like the majority of other coal mines in Mongolia, and contains 134 million tonnes of high-rank, low-ash and low-sulphur coal reserves. The current production capacity remains at 3 mtpa due to infrastructure constraints and is expected to increase to 5-8 mtpa once railway is in place. MAK is constructing a coal wash plant in order to increase the value of its product. The company is faced with some logistics problems, as the Mongolian side of the border mainly consists of earth road. MAK has also created a joint venture with Qinhua Corporation of China and obtained another license nearby its main project. The Chinese provided the required capital enabling further growth of the company.
Mongolia Mining Corporation = 500mt coking coal, South Gobi province, 245km from Chinese border Obtained approval for railway construction Paved road to be completed Q1 2011
1 Mongolian company to be listed on HKEx ($748m)
st
Mongolyn Alt Corp = 134mt coal, 900km south of UB, 50km from Chinese border
Open-pit mine Production capacity=3mtpa due to infrastructure constraints No rail link, investing in new wash plant
MAK JV with Chinese Qinhua Corp
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SouthGobi Resources = 114.1mt thermal and coking coal 2010: 4mtpa 2012: 8mtpa Off-take agreement signed with Winsway for 3.2mt, at least 2mtpa to be sold to Winsway Coal supply agreement with NAEG for 450kt in 2011 with a large international company for 500kt in 2011 4) SouthGobi Resources (SGQ) Ovoot Tolgoi project is certainly one of the largest foreign investments in the coal field of Mongolia. The deposit is situated 42 km from the Mongolian-Chinese border pass Shiveekhuren, making it the closest coal supply to the PRC, with proven and probable reserves of 114.1 million tonnes of thermal and coking coal. Ivanhoe Mines and China Investment Corporation currently own around 54% and 13% of SGQ respectively. The company is listed on Toronto and Hong Kong stock exchanges. On top of their main project, SouthGobi owns 18 more exploration licenses and intends to spend around $20 million annually on continuous exploration. The reported production target for 2010 was 4 mtpa, with an expected increase to 8 mtpa in 2012. China is the main buyer of SGQs coal. In Dec 2010, South Gobi signed an off-take agreement worth 3.2 mln tonnes of coal with Winsway Coking Coal. The two companies also entered into a strategic alliance agreement whereby SGQ has committed to sell a minimum of 2 mtpa of coal to Winsway. Also, in Dec 2010, SouthGobi signed a coal supply agreement with North Asia Energy Group Limited (NAEG) for the sale of 450k tonnes of coal in 2011 and another contract for 500k tonnes of coal in 2011 with a large international company. Recently, in late December 2010, SGQ completed its private placement with Aspire Mining and currently owns around 19.9% of the company. Aspire is an ASX listed company focused on developing the Ovoot coking coal project, located in Northern Mongolia, which contains 331 million tonnes of JORC resources. As Mongolia has vast mineral reserves and large areas of unpopulated land, the country is in need of foreign investments, which would be the driving force behind this underdeveloped countrys future growth. In 2010, total coal exports reached $877 in value, growing by 135% in volume and 187% in value from 2009. Mongolia borders with the PRC, which purchases more than 70% of its coal exports. According to forecasts, the coal sales to China could reach 30-50 mtpa by 2015. Historically, Australia has been the major coal supplier to the PRC. However, it could soon be replaced by Mongolia as the latter is located closer and has plenty to offer. 14.0 12.0 2010 coal exports: 16.6mt 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 COAL PRODUCTION, MILLION TONNES
Owns 20% of Aspire Mining
2010 revenue from coal = $877m
2015 coal exports to China 30-50mtpa Mongolia to replace Australia as main coal supplier to PRC
Source: Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia In 2010 Mongolian coal exports reached 16.6 million tonnes.
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Beyond Tavan Tolgoi... Although Tavan-Tolgoi is one of the worlds largest unexploited coal deposits, Mongolias riches are not limited to TT. Apart from the mentioned mines, there are dozens of other coal resources in the country. MAJOR COAL DEPOSITS IN MONGOLIA
Note: (8) (14): numbers indicate resources as reported by the companies (1) - (7): numbers indicate reserves as defined by China Reality Research Source: World Bank, US Geological Survey, Ministry of Fuel and Energy of Mongolia and China Reality Research
14.4.1 Tavan Tolgoi Total Reserve: 6.4bn t 25% of reserves: coking coal Ownership: 100% Government (Erdenes MGL) A strategic deposit 550 km south of Ulaanbaatar, 200 km from Chinese border Discovered by Soviet exploration teams Tavan Tolgoi (TT) is one of the largest unexploited coking and thermal coal deposits in the world, with total estimated resources of 6.4 billion tonnes, a quarter of which consists of high quality coking coal. It is located 550 km south of Ulaanbaatar and 200 km from the Mongolian-Chinese border. The deposit was discovered by Soviet exploration teams in 1950 and the initial drilling work continued throughout the 1960s and 1970s. After the 1990 Democratic Revolution and a transition to market economy, private sector explorers were allowed to search for more mineralization in the area. BHP Billiton took the initiative and started drilling. However, the company stopped exploration and Energy Resources LLC (currently Mongolia Mining Corporation), a consortium of major Mongolian companies, acquired the licenses, as it had the necessary capital when many others did not. The Mongolian government approved amendments to the Minerals Law in 2006 by identifying fifteen resource-rich areas as Strategic Deposits, including Tavan Tolgoi.
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Initial drilling: 1960-1970s Initial license owner: BHP Billiton Ukhaa Khudag block belongs to Mongolia Mining Corp Deposit is to be privatized in 2011 Eastern Block: 10% to citizens 10% to Mongolian companies (via MSE) 29% to IPO (via MSE and e.g. HKEx) 51% to government Western Block: To strategic investors who will assume full responsibility, including infrastructure development In 2007, Erdenes MGL LLC, a state-owned limited liability company was established to represent the state interest in utilization of strategic deposits. The government acquired back the majority of TT ownership from Energy Resources in March 2008, leaving only the Ukhaa Khudag block in the companys possession. Various expansion options for Tavan Tolgoi have been evaluated since then, and in 2009 it was announced that the state would delegate 49% of ownership rights to private mining companies. In early 2010, however, the government reversed its statement by declaring that a 100% government ownership would be retained. By the end of 2010, the Mongolian government put forward a new arrangement to both strategic investors and contract miners, which is still effective today. The overall deposit has been divided into two blocks, Eastern and Western. In late 2010, a new company Erdenes-Tavan Tolgoi LLC was established under the Erdenes MGLs umbrella to hold the license and account for the management of the deposit. In Q1 2011, through Erdenes-Tavan Tolgoi LLC, 10% of ownership rights of the Eastern Block is to be distributed to the citizens of Mongolia for free, another 10% is to be sold to private enterprises on the Mongolian Stock Exchange, 29% is to be released through both domestic and international stock exchanges to investors and a 51% stake is to be retained by the government. Funds raised through domestic and international IPO will be devoted to financing the infrastructure and working capital of the Eastern Block. The Western Block, however, will be handed over to strategic investors who will assume entire responsibility for the blocks development, mine infrastructure and coal marketing, independent from the government of Mongolia. Contract miners will be able to participate in the development of the Eastern Block for a fixed service fee, while strategic investors will be obliged to transfer a portion of their future income to the government of Mongolia. Challenges include the preparation of draft contracts, conduct of an adequate bidding process and, above all, selection of the best suited contract miners, strategic investors, and all other related parties including investment banks, legal advisors, auditors and so forth. The Tavan Tolgoi coking coal deposit has attracted interest from many of the international mining giants, including Chinas Shenhua Energy Co., Peabody Energy Corp from the US, a Russian consortium led by Gazprom, Brazils Vale, Indias International Coal Ventures Pvt, a joint venture of five state-run companies, Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto Plc and BHP Billiton. The th deadline for investors to submit their proposals was 17 January 2011. The th deadline for contract miners to express their interest is the 27 January 2011. Sources inform that the government is planning to extract 15 mtpa through contract mining from the Eastern Block in 2012. Although construction of a paved road to the Chinese border is almost complete by now, infrastructure challenges remain in the Tavan Tolgoi region, including railway construction, electricity and water supply, and border crossing arrangements.
Substantial challenges remain
International mining giants interested in TT 2012: 15mtpa through contract mining Paved road from TT to Chinese border is complete Railway construction required
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14.5 2010: 568k t of Cu exported, worth $771m (26.4% of exports) Copper/Gold
Copper has been the top Mongolian export commodity up until very recently. In 2010, Mongolia exported 568k tonnes of copper concentrate totalling $771 million in value. That represented 26.5% of total exports. Currently the largest Mongolian copper mine in production is Erdenet Mining Corporation (EMC), a Mongolian-Russian joint venture established in 1978, 51% and 49% owned by the Mongolian and Russian governments, respectively. The deposit is included in the top ten list of the worlds largest copper-molybdenumporphyry mineralisation areas, and is situated 400 km north-west of Ulaanbaatar. In 2010 Erdenet copper mine alone accounted for about 12% of the Mongolian GDP and was responsible for all of Mongolias copper ore and concentrate production. Mongolia is ranked 2 in the world by copper reserves, including its massive, soon to be fully developed Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper and gold deposit. OT is considered to be three times larger than EMC. Ivanhoe Mines have announced that the commercial production at Oyu Tolgoi mine will begin in 2013 following an initial start-up in late 2012.
nd
EMC current largest producer of Cu ore and concentrate
Mongolia 2 largest in world by Cu reserves Oyu Tolgoi = Erdenet x3
nd
High copper and coal exports, compared to modest exports of gold
Source: European Bank of Reconstruction and Development Centerra Gold - dominant producer of gold BG reserves almost depleted OT development to change everything Thus far the dominant company in the gold sector has been Boroo Gold (BG), a wholly owned subsidiary of Centerra Gold and one of the earliest foreign investment agreement deals in Mongolia. Boroo Gold started production in 2003, and in 2003-2009 the company extracted around 1.26 million oz of gold. Contrary to BG, whose reserves are almost depleted by now, a magnificent upcoming event is the full development of the Oyu Tolgoi project, which contains 46 million oz of gold. The exploration license for Gatsuurt deposit with proven reserves of 1 million oz of gold also belongs to Centerra Gold. Whether or not the Mongolian government will allow the company to proceed with the development of the deposit remains unclear. In November 2010, the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia announced that 1,782 mining licenses held by private companies and
Gatsuurt deposit: 100% owned by Centerra Gold Mining in Gatsuurt not allowed
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254 alluvial-gold licenses would be revoked. Four small licenses of Centerra Gold were included in the revocation list.
OT = worlds largest undeveloped copper-gold deposit
14.5.1 Oyu Tolgoi (copper-gold, Mongolia) Oyu Tolgoi is the world's largest undeveloped copper-gold deposit. It is situated 550 km south of Ulaanbaatar and in 80 km from the Mongolian-Chinese border.
Source: Ivanhoe Mines Oct 09: Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement signed 34% - Mongolian government 66% - Ivanhoe Mines (42% owned by Rio Tinto) March 2010: Investment Agreement took full legal effect Resources: 81bn lbs Cu (37mt) 46m oz Au (1,431t) Initial production expected in Q3, 2012 Commercial production to commence in 2013 Southern Oyu open pit mine: 100k Cu t/day from Q3 2012 A long-term Investment Agreement has been signed between the Mongolian government, Ivanhoe Mines and Rio Tinto in October 2009 for the development of Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine. According to the terms of the Agreement, 34% of Oyu Tolgoi ownership belongs to the state and the remaining 66% belongs to Ivanhoe Mines. The international mining giant Rio Tinto became Ivanhoe Mines strategic partner in 2007 and currently owns 42% of the company. After the governments assessment of progresses made after the initial signing of the Investment Agreement, the contract came into full legal effect in March 2010. Based on Ivanhoe Mines estimates, the Oyu Tolgoi deposit contains around 81 billion lbs (37 million tonnes) of copper and 46 million (1,431 tonnes) oz of gold in measured, indicated and inferred resources. Currently construction of the mining complex is progressing ahead of schedule and Oyu Tolgois first production of copper concentrate is expected in Q3 2012 from the Southern Oyu block. Ivanhoe Mines expects commercial production to start in 2013. The Southern Oyu part of the project is being developed as an open pit mine. A copper concentrator plant and other facilities are being built around the area. At
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full capacity, the Southern Oyu open-pit mine will provide 100k tonnes of ore per day. Hugo North underground mine: 85k Cu t/day from 2015 The Hugo North division of the project is being developed as a block-cave mine, which will yield the first output in 2015. At full capacity, the Hugo North deposit will produce 85k tonnes of ore per day. When the underground mine comes into operation, the processing capacity of the copper concentrator will be expanded. In accordance with the Minerals Law of Mongolia, Oyu Tolgoi is a strategic deposit and qualifies for 30 years of stabilized taxes, including corporate income tax, customs duty, value-added tax, excise tax, royalties, exploration and mining license fees, immovable property and/or real estate taxes, and other regulatory provisions. There is an option to extend the terms of the Investment Agreement by an additional 20 years.
30-50 years of stable tax and regulatory provisions
14.6 Iron ore production commenced in 2007
Iron ore
Iron ore mining in Mongolia commenced in 2007. Steel production is expanding at an accelerated rate in China and the country is increasing its imports of iron ore from Mongolia. IRON ORE PRODUCTION, MILLION TONNES 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 (I-X)
Source: Trade and Development Bank Iron ore exports = 8.7% of total exports Iron ore extraction is rapidly growing in Mongolia, and now accounts for 8.7% of all Mongolian exports.
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IRON ORE EXPORTS, $ MILLION 400 2012: iron ore exports to reach $375m in value 300 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 (I-X) 2011 (f) 2012 (f)
Source: Trade and Development Bank 2010 iron ore exports = 3.5mt ($251m) The Trade and Development Bank (TDB) of Mongolia made their forecasts in October 2010, predicting the iron ore exports from Mongolia to rise to $250 million in value in 2011. However, the December figures from the National Statistics Office suggest that in 2010 Mongolia exported 3.5 million tonnes of iron ore, worth $251 million. The TDBs 2011 forecast has already been realised in 2010. This means that iron ore exports could reach over $350 in value by the end of 2011. MAJOR PLAYERS Large Iron ore investors in Mongolia: 2008-2010 was a period of substantial investments in the iron ore sector of Mongolia. In 2008, Singapores sovereign wealth fund, in partnership with Hopu Investment, a private equity fund, endowed $300 million in Iron Mining International (formerly Lung Ming) which owns the Eruu Gol iron ore asset in Mongolia. China Investment Corporation (CIC) invested another $700 million in the same company in October 2009. All three funds are of substantial size, managing portfolios of $120 billion, $2.5 billion and $300 billion respectively. Eruu Gol deposit contains 304 million tonnes of iron ore in reserves. Iron Mining International was planning an IPO in early 2011, however currently there is no news on their progress with the intended listing. North Asia Resources Holdings Limited (NAR) entered into a framework agreement with Taishen Development LLC to acquire full equity interest in the company in August 2010. Taishen has exploration and mining licenses for two iron ore deposits situated in the Dundgobi and Dornogobi provinces of Mongolia close to the Choir Govisumber province train station. The first deposit contains 79 million tonnes of proven iron ore reserves and its license had been issued for thirty years in 2007. Another notable player in the industry is Haranga Resources, a majority owner and developer of five iron ore mining projects in Mongolia. The projects are located close to the existing and planned infrastructure and the target market for Haranga Resources iron ore production is mainland China. In mid December
Singapore sovereign wealth fund + Hopu Investment = $300m in Iron Mining International China Investment Corp. (CIC) = $700m in Iron Mining International
Taishen Development = 79mt of iron ore reserves, bought by NAR
Haranga Resources with five iron ore projects raised $25m from ASX IPO
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2010, the company raised $25 million in an Australian Stock Exchange IPO. As informed by the management, the initial offering was heavily oversubscribed. IRON ORE DEPOSITS
Note: map also includes the planned East-West railway Source: Ministry of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development of Mongolia
14.7 June 08: Mongolia is an oil producer Oil sector under-explored Largest explorers: PetroChina Petro Matad (London AIM listed)
Oil
Although Mongolia started exporting crude oil in 1998, it was officially recognised as an oil producing country in June 2008. The current oil exporting capacity is insignificant because of infrastructure constraints. Mongolias total oil exploration prospects, covering an area of 614 thousand square km, are divided into 25 blocks. The existing capacity for further oil exploration is immense as Mongolia remains significantly under-explored. The major players in the industry are PetroChina and Petro Matad, an AIM-listed, Mongolian company. Both companies have heavily invested in their respective oil projects. PetroChinas investment started in 2005 when they purchased three exploration blocks (XIX, XXI, XXII) from Soco International Plc, a London-based oil producing company, for $93 million. In 2010, Mongolia exported 2 million barrels of crude oil worth $155 million. Compared to 2009, this was an increase of 7% in volume and 34% in value. EBRD took an equity position of 17% in Petro Matad by investing $6 million in December 2009. Petro Matad is the parent company of an oil exploration group and its main shareholder is Petrovis LLC, which is the largest importer and distributor of petroleum products in Mongolia with widespread retail and wholesale network. In July 2010, the company discovered significant amounts of oil from its first well Davsan Tolgoi-1 located in block XX, and the companys share prices soared 55% on the AIM market.
2010 crude exports = 2.0m barrels ($155m)
EBRD invested $6m in Petro Matad Oil discovered from the first well
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Goal: self-sufficiency in oil The Mongolian governments main intention is to reach self-sufficiency in oil products based on domestic resources and it is undertaking the possible means to contribute to the exploration process and the further expansion of the petroleum producing potential of Mongolia. Mongolias southern neighbour, China, is the worlds second largest consumer of oil after the US. Half satisfied by imports, the PRCs consumption reached 8.3 million barrels per day in 2009. By 2011, Chinese oil demand is expected to grow to 9.6 million barrels per day taking up 37% of the global increase in demand. This justifies the presumption that oil blocks in Mongolia have the potential to be highly profitable once they start producing. In October 2010, it was announced that Japans Marubeni Corporation and Toyo Engineering have agreed to construct an oil refinery in Mongolia, 200 km north of Ulaanbaatar. The estimated project cost is $600 million and the two companies are planning to assume full responsibility for maintenance and operation of the refinery. The plant is to commence producing in autumn 2014 with a daily capacity of 44k barrels.
Target market: China, the worlds second largest consumer
Marubeni Corp + Toyo Engineering = oil refinery in Mongolia ($600m)
CRUDE OIL EXPORTS TO CHINA, MILLION BARRELS 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2008 2009 2010
Source: Trade and Development Bank
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OIL AND GAS DEPOSITS
14.8 Controversy around Khan Resources licenses unresolved
Uranium
Russia estimated the Mongolian uranium reserves at 30 thousand tonnes while the Mongolian government identifies the resources as 62,000 tonnes. The recent controversy surrounding the uranium sector in Mongolia has caught the attention of many. Khan Resources, a Toronto-based company, had two exploration licenses for uranium mines in the Dornod province of Mongolia. The main deposit was producing occasionally from 1988 to 1995 under Soviet administration. However, since 1995, no further mining has occurred in the area. The Dornod uranium deposits are included in the list of the fifteen strategic deposits, like TavanTolgoi and Oyu Tolgoi. Therefore, the government of Mongolia is entitled to a maximum of 50% ownership rights of the resources. Historical Russian exploration work lay at the heart of the claim for ownership of the licenses.
Dornod is a strategic deposit
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URANIUM DEPOSITS
14.9 Stronger measures on environmental protection and rehabilitation
Minerals Laws and Taxes
Recently, measures on environmental protection and rehabilitation issues have been strengthened in Mongolia. Now the local administrative bodies are given more regulatory power and private license holders have many more duties to comply with.
14.9.1 Strategically Significant Deposits Identified: 1,170 deposits 7,654 occurrences 60 types of minerals Approximately 1,170 mineral deposits and 7,654 occurrences have been identified in Mongolia to date. The occurrences include over 60 types of minerals, including copper, gold, coal, molybdenum, iron ore, uranium, tin, tungsten, silver, zinc and fluorspar. Fifteen deposits have been acknowledged by the government as strategically important. According to the Minerals Law (2006), a deposit is considered to be strategically important, if it: 15 strategic deposits If a deposit is strategic, government takes up to 34%-50% of ownership rights has an influence on Mongolias national security, economic and social development (such as all uranium deposits) contains minerals that have strong international demand yields annual revenues exceeding 5% of GDP
If a deposit is identified as strategically important to Mongolia, the government is allowed to acquire up to 34% of ownership rights from the license holder, if the exploration work has been financed purely with private funds, and up to 50% of ownership rights, if the exploration work has been financed partially with state funds, including capital invested during the Soviet times.
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DEPOSITS OF STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
Source Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia Source:
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OVERVIEW OF STRATEGIC ASSETS State of development, start date, output p.a. Partial production, rampup in 2011, 15-30 mtpa Feasibility study
Deposit Tavan Tolgoi Nariin Sukhait Baganuur
Minerals Metallurgical coal Metallurgical coal Lignite coal
Reserves and quantity
Ownership structure 100% Erdenes MGL 1 LLC 100% private (South Gobi Resources, MAKQinhua JV) 75% SPC , 25% locally listed 90% SPC, 10% locally listed (operational part); rest owned by Erdenes MGL 100% private (Khan Resources) 21% SPC, 21% Russian Gov, 58% Khan Resources 100% private (Chinese company) 100% Darkhan Metallurgical factory (100% owned by SPC)
3
Estimated capex US$ 2.4 bn (US$ 1.6 in the first 3 years) N/A
6.4 bn t
125.5. mn t
600.0 mn t
Production, 2.8 mtpa
Shivee Ovoo
Lignite coal
646.2 mn t
Production, 2.0 mtpa
Mardai
Uranium
0.001 mn t at 0.119% O3U8 0.029 mn t at 0.175% O3U8 0.016 mn t at 0.152% O3U8 229.3 mn t at 51.15% Fe
Feasibility study
6 7
Dornod Gurvan Bulag Tomortei
Uranium Uranium
Feasibility study Feasibility study
Total US$ 200 mn
Iron ore
Feasibility study
US$ 100 mn
Oyu Tolgoi
Copper, gold
37 mn t of copper, 1,431 t of gold
Commercial production in 2013
34% Erdenes MGL, 66% Ivanhoe Mines
US$ 6 bn
10
Tsagaan Suvarga
Copper, molybdenum
10.6 mn t of oxides at 0.42% Cu/0.011% Mo; 240.1 mn t sulphides at 0.53% Cu/0.018% Mo 1.2 bn t at 0.51% Cu/ 0.012% Mo 300 mn t at 19.0% P2O5 0.025 mn t at 1.6g/t Au 7.7 mn t at 11.5% Zn
Feasibility study
100% private (MAK)
US$ 200 mn
11 12 13 14
Erdenet Burenkhaan Boroo Tomortein Ovoo Asgat
Copper, molybdenum Phosphorite Gold, ore Zinc
Production, 569k t of concentrate Feasibility study Close to depletion Production, 0.07 mn t of zinc Feasibility study
51% SPC, 49% Russian Gov 100% private (four private companies) 100% private (Boroo Gold) 100% private (Tsairminerals JV) 100% Mongolrostsvetmet (50% SPC, 50% Russian Gov)
US$ 150 mn for downstream plant US$ 500 mn
US$ 47 mn
15
Silver
6.4 mn t at 351.08g/t Ag
Source: Worley Parsons, Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy, State Property Committee of Mongolia
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Note: 1. Erdenes MGL state owned limited liability company 2. Other sources estimate Baganuur reserves at 1.3 billion tonnes 3. SPC State Property Committee of Mongolia
14.9.2 Overview of Foreign Investment (The following information has been provided by legal firms active in Mongolia, including Dewey & LeBoeuf) The Mongolian Foreign Investment Law (FIL) was adopted in 1993 and subsequently amended. According to the Law, the minimum amount accepted as foreign investment is US$ 100k. The FIL gives similarly positive treatment to both foreign and domestic investors with regard to control, use and removal of their investments. Foreigners can repatriate income and profits earned. A Stability Agreement (i.e. stabilization of taxes) is obtainable, the eligibility for and terms of which depend on the degree of investment. Foreign Ownership Foreign Investors can own 100% of any registered business and it is not legally required to have a Mongolian partner Exceptions In line with the Minerals Law adopted in 2006, the Government of Mongolia is entitled to obtain up to 34% or 50% share of any deposit identified as strategically important In line with the Uranium Law adopted in 2009, the Government of Mongolia is entitled to obtain at least 51% share of any company engaged in uranium exploration and mining through MonAtom LLC
Registration of Foreign Investment Any company with 25% or more foreign direct investment has to be registered as a foreign-invested firm with the Foreign Investment and Foreign Trade Agency (FIFTA) FIFTA is fully responsible for the registration process and currently operates under the supervision of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) FIFTA certifies the environmental practices and technologies of registered foreign companies
Currency Issues Investment funds, profits, revenues, debt service and lease payments are easily convertible and transferrable in various currencies. Mongolian companies are allowed to open offshore bank accounts Foreign-held interest bearing bank accounts are subject to a tax rate of 20% All domestic transactions must be conducted in local currency (MNT)
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Resolving Disputes Mongolia is a signatory to the Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards (CREFAA, New York Convention) Mongolia is a signatory to the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes (CSID, Washington Convention) Mongolia has signed Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) with numerous countries Benefits of BITS and CSID Conventions Disputes can be resolved via international arbitration Domestic courts can be avoided Broad protection standards are provided under international law Measures may have an effect equivalent to expropriation Provides investors with fair and equitable treatment
14.9.3 Foreign Investment in Mining Exploration and Mining Licenses Mineral resources are the States property Only legal entities registered in Mongolia can hold exploration and mining licenses Exploration Licenses Initially granted for 3 years The license can be extended twice, each extension comprising a 3-year period The license holders are required to spend the following minimum amounts on exploration from the second year onwards 2nd and 3rd year miners must spend at least US $0.5 per Ha annually 4th to 6th year miners must spend at least US $1.0 per Ha annually 7th to 9th year miners must spend at least US $1.5 per Ha annually Mining Licenses Initially granted for 30 years The license can be extended twice, each extension comprising a 20-year period 5% royalties are applied on export sales Active mining companies must ensure that 90% of their workforce consists of Mongolian nationals A license holder who invests $50 million or more can enter into a special Investment Agreement with the Government
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Foreign Ownership The Minerals Law adopted in 2006 gives the Government of Mongolia the right to obtain an equity stake in all strategically important deposits up to a 50% stake if the exploration of the deposit has been partially financed with the States funds up to a 34% stake if the exploration of the deposit has been fully financed with private funds The Government has to pay for the share it takes at a fair market value Holders of the mining licenses for strategic deposits must sell no less than 10% of the shares on the Mongolian Stock Exchange Currently it is unclear how this provision of the Law will be implemented
Investment Agreements Investors who undertake to invest more than $50 million within the first five years of their mining operations are eligible to enter into a special Investment Agreement with the Government of Mongolia The Investment Agreement can create fiscal and legal stability The Government acts through the Cabinet of Ministers represented by cabinet members responsible for taxation, geology, mining and environmental issues Maximum duration of the Investment Agreement: for investments worth US$ 50 - 100 million: 10 years for investments worth US$ 100 - 300 million: 15 years for investments in excess of US$300 million: 30 years
Environmental Issues The license holders must prepare the following documents: an environmental impact assessment an environmental action plan which addresses all adverse impacts identified in the environmental impact assessment The license holders must deposit 50% of their environmental protection budget for a particular year in a special bank account supervised by the Government Current mining license holders are responsible for environmental liabilities incurred by former license holders
Taking Security The license holder may pledge mineral licenses and immovable property and register such pledge with FIFTA Only banks and other financial institutions can be registered as pledgees of mineral licenses Key issue: only Mongolian legal entities (or nationals) can hold mineral licenses There is no system to register pledges over movable property
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Recent Changes to the Mongolian Tax Code Effective from the 1 of January 2007, the Tax Code creates a level playing field between foreign and domestic investors In 2009, the allowance to carry forward losses has been extended from 2 to 8 years This was a condition for the development of the Oyu Tolgoi project In 2009, Parliament revoked an exemption on VAT taxes of 10% on equipments used to bring a mine into production
st
Elimination of Excess Profits Tax on Gold and Copper Windfall Profits Tax law passed in 2006 It imposed 68% tax on profits from gold and copper mining Gold: tax was applied when the gold price reached US$ 850/oz Copper: tax was applied when the copper price reached $2,600/t st The Parliament abolished the Windfall Profits Tax, effective from the 1 of January 2011
Law on Prohibition of Mineral Exploration in Water Basins and Forest Areas (2009) The Law prohibits mining in water basins and in forested areas According to the Law, licenses to explore or mine mineral resources within an area no less than 200 meters from a forest or water resource must be revoked or modified The Law grants local officials the power to determine the actual areas to be mined Local officials can extend the 200 meter threshold The Law requires the Government to give compensation to the license holders for previously incurred exploration expenses or the revenues lost due to standstill of operations
Uranium Law (2009) Created the Nuclear Energy Agency of Mongolia (Regulatory Authority) Created MonAtom, a new state-owned holding company, to maintain the uranium assets that the government will demand back from the current rights holders Revoked all uranium exploration and mining licenses, and required all possessors to re-register those licenses (for a fee) with the Nuclear Energy Agency Required investors to accept that MonAtom has the right to acquire 51% share of the license holders company without compensation Created a uranium-specific licensing and regulatory regime Independent of the regulatory framework set out in the Minerals Law (2006) for developing other mineral and metal resources
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The state can issue distinct licenses for uranium exploration on a property otherwise dedicated to other mineral and metals exploration
14.9.4 Progressive royalties on minerals The State Information Digest was published on the 27 December 2010. According to the new release, the Law on Minerals has been amended and now includes progressively increasing royalties on 23 types of minerals. PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES ON MINERALS
Threshold market price, US$ ore 1 Copper tonnes 0-5000 5000-6000 6000-7000 7000-8000 8000-9000 Above 9000 2 Gold ounce 0-900 900-1000 1000-1100 1100-1200 1200-1300 Above 1300 6 Iron tonnes 0-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 Above 100 7 Zinc tonnes 0-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 3000-3500 Above 3500 11 Raw coal tonnes 0-25 25-50 50-75 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0
th
No
Mineral
Unit
Percent levy concentrate 0.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 product 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
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75-100 100-125 Above 125 12 Processed coal tonnes 0-100 100-130 130-160 160-190 190-210 Above 210 13 Final product (half-coke, coke, gas, liquid fuel, coke chemical product) tonnes 0-160 160-190 190-210 210-240 240-270 Above 270 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Source: State Information Digest
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Agriculture
15 Agriculture
Currently replaced by mining, the agriculture sector formerly has been the backbone of Mongolias economy and the major driver for peoples living standards.
Agriculture focused on animal husbandry Pastureland is the backbone of agriculture 1% of land cultivated with crops Self-sufficiency in grains and potatoes
The agriculture sector formerly has been the largest contributor to Mongolias economy, accounting for more than 20% of the countrys GDP and representing around 14% of foreign currency revenue. The industry development has been and still is largely constrained by harsh climatic conditions, long winters and insufficient precipitation. To date, only 1% of Mongolias arable land is cultivated with crops. The majority of vegetables and food products, except livestock, are imported from China. The overall sector is mainly focused on animal husbandry, therefore pastureland is the backbone of Mongolias agriculture. Previously around 80% of the total territory used to be occupied with pastureland. However, this proportion is decreasing due to the current advancements in the mining sector. Mongolia has recently become self-sufficient in grains and potatoes. The livestock sub-sector, which accounts for more than 80% of agriculture production, is primarily focused on sheep, goat, cattle, horse, camel, yak and pig husbandry. Livestock is extensively distributed throughout the entire territory, with greatest concentration of horses and cattle in the north-central regions and of goats and camels in the west-southern regions of Mongolia. The earliest agricultural cooperatives were founded in the 1930s following the governments policy to systematize herders with their livestock. With assistance from the Soviet Union, the number of cooperatives were increased and their sizes expanded in the mid 1950s. According to the National Statistics Office, by the end of 2010, there were 1.9 million horses, 2.2 million cattle, 270 thousand camels, 14.5 million sheep and 13.9 million goats in Mongolia, summing to 32.77 million heads of livestock. In total 11.3 million heads of animals were lost due to dzud (explained later in this section) Crop cultivation areas are concentrated in the northern regions of Mongolia, especially around the Orkhon and Selenge river basins, owing to moister land. Around 80% of cropland is devoted to cultivation of grains such as wheat, barley and oat. The remaining part is primarily devoted to fodder crops or hay. The subsector generates rather low yields that vary heavily each year depending on the weather conditions. A trivial fraction of the crop land is occupied by gardening of potatoes, yet the output is enough to satisfy the demand coming from 2.7 million people residing in the country. On average, the largest state-owned farms spread over an area of 270 square kilometres and normally encompass some livestock production. In 2010, Mongolia produced 355 thousand tonnes of cereal (9.3% decrease yoy), 168 thousand tonnes of potatoes (11.1% increase yoy), 82 thousand tonnes of
Livestock accounts for over 80% of agriculture First cooperatives founded in 1930s
2010: total livestock 32.8m heads
80% of cropland devoted to grain cultivation Crop cultivation yields are low and inconsistent Largest farms: 270 sq km
2010: 1.7mt of harvest
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vegetables (5.5% increase yoy), 1.1 million tonnes of hay (24.1% increase yoy) and 31 thousand tonnes of hand-made fodder (21.1% increase yoy), totalling 1.7 million of harvest.
CULTIVATED CROP LAND USE , THOUSAND HA
Sown, 195 Abandoned, 4 79
Fallow, 147
Unused, 376
Source: Ministry of Food Agriculture and Light Industry of Mongolia
15.1 Dzud = cold and windy winters Animals perish from dzud
Dzud
Dzud is a terminology explaining extremely cold and windy winters, throughout which livestock perish from starvation as it becomes impossible to find fodder. Herder households sometimes categorise the phenomenon as black, white and ice dzuds. The first type is caused by low growth of fodder crop in summer followed by a cold winter, the second type is caused by heavy snow falls, regardless of the previous months harvest. The third type is a consequence of heavy rain falls which create an ice coverage on top of the soil, freezing all the hay. As a result of each type of dzud, livestock perish through malnourishment. It is possible to prepare for dzud by drying and storing hay during the warm seasons and by building winter shelters in advance for the livestock.
Q4 2009 Q1 2010: 7.8m livestock lost; 45,000 people left without animals 2009: livestock = 16% of GDP
Dzud can easily slay over 1 million heads of animals. According to UN estimates, the white dzud which occurred in late 2009 and early 2010 had a cruel impact and by the end of April 2010, over 7.8 million heads of livestock (around 17% of total livestock) were lost and 9,000 households (45,000) were left without animals. In 2009, livestock accounted for around 16% of GDP. According to the National Statistics Office, by the end of 2010, the total loss increased to 11.3 million heads, including 13.5 thousand horses (301% decrease yoy), 423 thousand cattle (16.3% decrease yoy), 7.5 thousand camel (2.7% decrease yoy), 4.8 million sheep (24.9% decrease yoy), 5.8 million goats (29.4% decrease yoy). Compared to 2009, the total number of agricultural animals in Mongolia fell by 25.7%.
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Real Estate
16 Real Estate
The capacity to build residential properties in Ulaanbaatar is enormous, especially considering the increasing number of expats and foreign executives arriving in Mongolia.
2002-2008: residential property prices quadrupled
Residential property prices rose four fold during the period 2002-2008, after which they fell to 2007 levels as a result of the global recession. In the beginning of 2010, the average price per square meter of an apartment in Ulaanbaatar was $800 [Eurasia Capital]. DYNAMICS OF RESIDENTIAL PRICES IN ULAANBAATAR ($/sqm) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
250 330 400 450 590 800 1100 800
Source: Global Property Guide, Eurasia Capital, Mongolian Properties COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL PRICES ($/sqm) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
4,500
1,900
1,550
1,200 800 650 475
Ulaanbaatar
Source: Global Property Guide, Eurasia Capital, Mongolian Properties
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Tashkent
Moscow
Bishkek
Almaty
Baku
Kiev
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Factors behind the real estate industry growth: Mining boom, economic development and higher foreign direct investment; more foreign executives and diplomats coming to Mongolia; increasing living standards and greater number of wealthy citizens Lack of contemporary apartments; over 1 million people residing in Ulaanbaatar (40% of the population); lack of per person living space in the capital city (7 square meter per person) Mongolian households are bigger in size compared to Russia and Eastern Europe, having on average 4.1 persons Child benefits and population growth Migration of rural households to Ulaanbaatar Difficult living conditions in ger districts 2008: 15,000 foreign residents and 4,000 expats in Mongolia Figures suggest that in 2008, over 15 thousand foreigners and 4 thousand expats were residing in Ulaanbaatar. As a result, in 2008, the residential property yields in Mongolia were among the highest in all of Asia, hovering around 15% to 18%, with accommodation prices rising 30% yoy. Because of the global recession and plunging copper prices, which was the main export commodity of that time, residential property prices in Mongolia fell by around 30% in 2009. The banking sector experienced a collapse of two banks and commercial banks in general stopped providing loans to the citizens. The signing of the Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement (Oct 2009) facilitated substantial inflow of foreign capital into the mining sector, laying the foundation for complete economic recovery and robust future growth. The top banks of Mongolia started offering mortgage loans by the end of 2009. The recent success in economic performance gives a solid reason to presume that the demand for residential properties in the country is about to hike. Foreign residents are allowed to own a property in Mongolia. The special license that qualifies their ownership rights is the Immovable Property Ownership Certificate. Statistics suggest that the population of Ulaanbaatar increased 30% to 1.1 million in three years from 2007. More than half of the residents live in ger districts surrounding the city. The government is working on a project to replace the ger districts with proper residential complexes. An announcement has been made in October 2010 that the authorities are willing to exchange two-room apartments for 0.07 Ha of land in ger districts. The master plan is to construct residential complexes in those areas comprising 75 thousand apartments for lower-income people. The two-room replacements are meant to be a temporary provision of accommodation for the land owners, who will be entitled to obtain housing from the new complexes once they are fully constructed. Other projects designated for 25 thousand households are to be developed in provincial areas across Mongolia. The estimated budget for the construction of all 100 thousand apartments is $6.2 billion. The capacity to build residential properties in Ulaanbaatar is enormous, especially considering the increasing number of expats and foreign executives arriving in Mongolia. Being aware of such possibilities, several real estate suppliers have started constructing new large-scale residential buildings, some of which are
2009: property prices fell 30%
Oyu Tolgoi agreement, economic recovery, provision of mortgage loans Demand expected to increase
2007-2010: Ulaanbaatar population increased 30% Offer to exchange 2-room apartments for 0.07 Ha land 100,000 apartments for low-income people to be constructed ($6.2bn)
Substantial existing capacity
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Numerous large-scale ongoing projects complete by now. Mongolian Properties is the largest real estate company based Properties in Ulaanbaatar, which is owned by Asia Pacific Investment Partners, an investment company focused on opportunities in Mongolia. Mongolian Properties has just finished the construction of the Regency Residence (9 apartments) and is (97 currently working on the Olympic Residence (135 apartments) project. Tenants are now allowed to move into the former complex. The latter project is to be finished by 2013. Bodi Group, one of the largest companies in Mongolia, which ow Golomt Bank, is also building a 84-villa complex in the Sanzai area outside of owns villa Ulaanbaatar. Figures indicate that around 100 real estate developers are currently active in Mongolia, out of which 10 can be considered as professional. With further economic growth and development of the financial sector, provision of mortgage loans by banks is expec expected to increase substantially.
100 real estate developers, only 10 are professional
Source: Trade and Development Bank Property market, recent research Lack of residential property Currently there is a significant lack of supply in the residential property market throughout Mongolia. The demand for adequate accommodation and commercial property is high and expected to hike further due to the mining boom, inflow of capital, rising number of expats and improvement in living standards. number
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Number of expats 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Expat population growth 35,000 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50%
Source: Broker research Large-scale property projects are to be developed in the South Gobi province of Mongolia, a home to grand deposits like Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi.
LUXURY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICES ($ per 1 sqm)

25,000 22,200 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Bangkok Seoul Hong Kong Singapore Ho Chi Minh Shanghai Almaty Beijing Perth Kuala Lumpur Ulaanbaatar 11,900 9,500 7,050 6,900 5,200 5,000 4,500 3,150 3,100
1,700
Source: CBRE, Savills, Global Property Guide, Eurasia Capital, Krisha Magazine
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GRADE A OFFICE RENTAL PRICES ($ per 1 sqm)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Hong Kong Perth Beijing Kuala Lumpur Singapore Ho Chi Minh Shanghai Bangkok Almaty Taipei Seoul Ulaanbaatar 38 31 31 30 24 24 23 22 63 61
57
54
Source: CBRE, Savills, Global Property Guide, Krisha Magazine In 2000, Ulaanbaatar was a soviet-style city with little construction activity taking place, whereas in 2010 it has transformed into a contemporary city with an extraordinary boom in real estate development. In 2000, the Mongolian GDP was $1 billion, the GDP per capita was $456 and Ulaanbaatars population was 791 thousand. In 2010, however, the numbers have grown to over $6.6 billion, $1,745 and 1.1 million, respectively. Recently Mongolia has been named the Saudi Arabia of Coal and many predict that Ulaanbaatar is about to follow the footsteps of Astana and Doha in terms of their success and achievements in transformation. According to the IMF estimates, Mongolias real GDP growth is to exceed 25% by 2013-2014. The countrys GDP per capita is expected to rise faster than the PRCs, reaching $5,000 by 2012 and $12,000 by 2015, which is equivalent to what an average resident of Shanghai earns today. The capacity for new residential developments in the main cities, including Ulaanbaatar, is immense. For instance, Dalanzadgad, the centre of the South Gobi province, will be the next main destination for domestic and foreign workforce, where construction of new housing, industrial complexes, offices and hospitals will be required. There are approximately 18,000 people residing in the city and most of them live in traditional gers. Another example is Sainshand city, where a $10 billion industrial complex (park) is being developed which will increase the value of Mongolian mineral resources. The park will contain a coal handling and processing plant (CHPP), a copper smelter, an iron pellets plant, an oil refinery and other facilities. Property developers and financiers should see the mine sites as the main destination for real estate related investments. The latest update informs that construction and installation works implemented in Mongolia throughout 2010 grew 25.6% from 2009 and reached 351 billion MNT (around $281 million) in total. Domestic construction companies executed 93% of those (30% increase in activity yoy), while foreigners accounted for the remaining 7%.
Ulaanbaatar the capital city of Mongolia (2000)
Ulaanbaatar the capital city of Mongolia (2010)
2010: construction/installation works nationwide $281m (up 25.6% yoy)
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17 Infrastructure
Mongolias infrastructure, or lack of, is the most serious inhibitor to developing its resource wealth. However, there are many ambitious projects and foreign investment commitments to improve the situation.
17.1 Trans-Mongolian railway (2,215 km) is Mongolias main rail line
Railway
The Trans Mongolian railway, which is Mongolias main rail link connecting the Trans-Mongolian countrys borders with Russia and China, stretches across 2,215 km. The line starts at Ulan Ude town, passes through Ulaanbaatar, then reaches Zamiin-Uud and Ulan-Ude Zamiin Erenhot, where it joins the Chinese railway. There are a few diverted short routes joins branching out from the main line that link passengers to the main cities such as Erdenet and Darkhan. Apart from the Trans Mongolian railway, a short link Trans-Mongolian connects the eastern city Choibalsan, the centre of the Dornod province, with the Trans Siberian railway of Russia. Ulaanbaatar Railway, 50% owned by the Russian Trans-Siberian government, is responsible for the operation of the main line. In December 2010, the governments of Mongolia and Russia signed nine cooperation agreements, including a contract on the enlargement of the Ulaanbaatar Railway capital at equal contribution, which will help modernize the company and facilitate the development of the required infrastructure in development Mongolia.
Agreement signed on improvement of Ulaanbaatar Railway company
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17.2 96.7% of roads unpaved Major investments expected Roads
Most roads in Mongolia are gravel road and 96.7% of the Mongolian road network is unpaved. Investments into the sectors were boosted only after 2000, when the US and major financial institutions like the World Bank and ADB contributed to the development of road projects. As a result, 2,700 km of paved road were added to the system, making the isolated regions of Mongolia more accessible. As infrastructure constraints remain immense at this stage of the mining boom, further investments are expected in rail and road networks. Mongolia Mining Corporations new paved road from its Ukhaa Khudag deposit located in the Tavan Tolgoi region to the Mongolian-Chinese border is soon to be fully completed. There is a paved road from Ulaanbaatar to the Mongolian-Russian border.
New paved road by Mongolia Mining Corporation
17.3 Only one international airport
Airports
Chinggis Khaan Airport, located in 15 km from Ulaanbaatar, is the one and only international airport of Mongolia. There are a number of domestic airports linking the capital city to isolated provinces. MIAT or Mongolian Airlines, a state-owned company, is the largest carrier in the country and currently offers international flights only. Among major global destinations, Mongolia is directly linked to Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, Moscow and Berlin. The main two domestic carriers are AeroMongolia and Eznis Airways, which also organise charter flights to the main mine sites.
17.4 Water is a scarce resource in Mongolia
Water
Due to dry weather conditions, water is a scarce resource in Mongolia. Some regions of the country do not receive precipitation at all throughout the year. There is the threat that Ulaanbaatars water supply may be significantly depleted in the medium to long term. Not only is water required for peoples everyday life, but it also facilitates industrial activities such as coal washing. In general, production levels of all sorts of mines heavily depend on water supply. Desert areas contain aquifers, but it is hard to quantify the size and distribution of those. In late 2010, Oyu Tolgois environmental team announced that they had found a substantial amount of underground water deep beneath the Gobi desert. Experts predict that the discovered aquifer will be capable of supplying the copper and gold mine throughout the next 40 years. According to the announcement, even after those years of utilization, water resources in the area will not be fully depleted. The Oyu Tolgoi team is currently working to ensure that minimal environmental impacts are caused by their activity in the region. Development of
Water is vital in mine development
Oyu Tolgoi team discovered an aquifer Water supply ensured for 40 years Environmental impacts will be minimal
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the aquifer will also be devoted to the improvement of conditions in nearby towns.
Source: Trade and Development Bank Estimated costs for developing water resources: Water resources for Gobi: $300 million for ground resources Diverting waters from northern rivers: $400 million Solving Ulaanbaatars needs: $300 million Total: $1 billion
Source: World Bank
17.5
Mining boom and infrastructure development
Although the mining boom is already ongoing in Mongolia, the realities of the industry today include several issues requiring attention: Isolation the mine sites are located in remote places, far away from existing infrastructure Insufficient infrastructure the existing infrastructure is highly underdeveloped owing to the size of the country and the size of the population Technology, expertise and skilled labour deficiency related to Mongolias development Weak logistics system related to underdeveloped infrastructure and lack of expertise Undeveloped rural areas the biggest and most developed city is the capital Ulaanbaatar, where 40% of the entire population resides Environmental issues applicable to any country
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Largest deposits located in isolated areas Poor access to basic infrastructure Most of the la large-scale deposits are located in isolated areas, with very limited scale infrastructure. Connection to the electrical grid in Mongolia takes twice as long to obtain in comparison with Russia, China and Kazakhstan. Power outages and water supply failures occur constantly. ACCESS TO BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE (DAYS SPENT) 25 20 15 10 5 0
Mongolia Kazakhstan Russia East Pacific Asia China
Obtain electrical connection
Water supply failures
Power outages
Source: World Bank, Mongolia Sources of Growth Country Economic Memorandum, July 26 2007 Ranked last for quality of infrastructure As informed by the Business Council of Mongolia, the 2010 Global Competitiveness Report ranked Mongolia last for the quality of overall Mongolia infrastructure out of 134 countries. There are no paved roads from Ulaanbaatar to the Mongolian Chinese border. Because of underinvestment, the countrys overall Mongolian-Chinese railway capacity is substantially restrained. In addition, the half-Russian ownership addition, half of the current railway network is seen by many as an obstacle for development. Currently in Mongolia, 88.4% of total roads are earth and only 3.3% are paved.
88.4% - earth road 3.3% - paved road
Earth road 88.4% 0.5% 0.2% 3.1% 3.9% 3.8% Improved road Gravel Asphalt road Cement road Others
Source: Business Council of Mongolia
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Supply chain development potentials Planned mining expenditures: $13bn Mining service expenses: $1.3bn Planned mining expenditures are to total $13 billion in the coming years, of which $1.3 billion is to be spent on mining services.
Source: Business Council of Mongolia 2011-2015: expected FDI in mining $25bn The government of Mongolia hopes to attract up to $25 billion in foreign investment for mining projects in 2011 2011-2015. COAL CASE, MINING INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS, % OF TOTAL
12% 16%
26% 600MW power plant Open-cut coal mining Railway
24%
22%
Coal beneficiation Others
Note: Under 30 mtpa production scenario Source: Business Council of Mongolia 2011-2020: investment in infrastructure $5.2bn Infrastructure development requires around $5.2 billion in investments from 2011 2011-2020.
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REQUIRED INVESTMENT IN MINING INFRASTRUCTURE (2011-2020) Electricity Town development Land transport Water resource Total Source: World Bank The government is planning to build 2,600 km of paved East-West road and 5,600 km of new railroads: Railway construction strategy: Phase I (2010-2011), 1040 km: Tavan Tolgoi Sainshand - Choibalsan route providing access to Russian far eastern ports Phase II (2011-2012), 893 km: Nariin Sukhait - Shivee Khuren, Tavan Tolgoi (Ukhaa Khudag) Gashuun Sukhait Phase III (2012-2015), around 3,600km: the western railway lines from Tavan Tolgoi (Ukhaa Khudag) through Nariin Sukhait $2.7 billion $1.5 billion $800 million $262 million $5.2 billion
Railway construction, 1 phase $3.0bn
st
The railway infrastructure plan has considered all major mineral deposits. Around $3.0 billion is to be spent on the first phase.
Source: Ministry of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development of Mongolia
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17.6 $10bn industrial complex in Sainshand Industrial Park in Sainshand
An industrial complex is being built in Sainshand city, which is located at the crossroads of the Trans-Mongolian and East-West rail lines. The latter is currently under development and will link Tavan Tolgoi deposit with the Russian far-eastern seaports, i.e. Vladivostok, through the Trans-Siberian rail route. Projected capex of the entire complex is $10 billion.
SAINSHAND IND. PARK Source: Ministry of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development of Mongolia The Industrial Park is to include a CHPP (coal handling and processing plant), an iron pellets plant, a copper smelter, an oil refinery and other facilities which will increase the value of Mongolian mineral resources. PLANNED PROJECT DEVELOPMENT PHASES
Source: State Property Committee
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Sainshand Park can increase Mongolias GDP to $41bn According to the estimates of the Ministry of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development of Mongolia, the construction of Sainshand Park and associated industrialisation could increase the Mongolian GDP to $41 billion over the next 11 years, compared to the current level of $6.6 billion. Cumulative GDP growth over 2010-2021 is 45% higher under processing and export scenario $ billion Extraction and exports (unprocessed) Losses due to higher transportation costs Value added in transportation Value added in processing and construction Value added in power Value added in other industries Manufacturing and exports Source: Boston Consulting Group, Oct 2010 26 -4 3 11 3 1 40
17.7 Recent developments The overall infrastructure investment needs are estimated to be around $5.2 billion throughout the next 10 years. Although the Mongolian government plans to spend around $3.0 billion on the first phase of railway construction, it also seeks to delegate some of the responsibility to individual companies. Mongolia Mining Corporation (Energy Resources) 2011-2012: new railway, 240 km, 15mtpa Mongolia Mining Corporation (MMC) has obtained rights to construct a railway directly from its Ukhaa Khudag deposit to Gashuun Sukhait (the MongolianChinese border) in 2011-2012. The company is doing so in order to increase their operational efficiency and reduce transportation costs. The new railway will be roughly 240 km in length. Although the target market for Ukhaa Khudags coal is mainland China, MMC is also seeking to export their product to other seaborne markets via the Gashuun Sukhait border pass. The new rail link is expected to convey 15 mtpa at full capacity, primarily satisfying the companys own coal transportation needs. Other mining companies, however, will be allowed to use the railway in case of excess capacity. Mongolia Mining Corporation has also started putting a 245 km paved road south to the Gashuun Sukhait border pass from its Ukhaa Khudag mine. The road is to be completed in Q1 2011 and will have a capacity of 18 mtpa. It will be used as a principal coal haulage channel prior to the construction of their railway. The project is intended to increase MMCs transportation capacity and reduce the related costs directly affecting the companys profitability.
Q1 2011: new paved road, 18mtpa
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Mongolia Russia - China 2011: new railroad from Tavan Tolgoi to Choibalsan, 1,040 km, capex $3.0bn Authorities of Mongolia have selected a more expensive infrastructure development option with the purpose of strengthening Mongolias sovereignty. Recently it has been announced that a new railroad will be constructed in 2011 linking Mongolias largest coal deposit, Tavan Tolgoi, with Mongolias domestic rail network. The alternative option was a direct route south to China. International advisors and a group of parliament members voted in favour of the alternative option, which would have been much cheaper. The selected option, as explained by political leaders, would protect Mongolia from the possible economic and political pressure from China if it becomes the principal importer of Tavan Tolgoi coal. The approved rail route will stretch 1,040 km north to Russia, from Tavan Tolgoi to Choibalsan city, which is linked to the Trans-Siberian railway through Sainshand. Approximately $3.0 billion will be spent on the development. Russian wide-gauges will be used in the construction, rather than narrower Chinese gauges that are common in many countries. A number of factors influenced the choice of such an expensive option. The principal reason was the back-up of Sainshand Industrial Parks development. Via the new route, coal will be transported from Tavan Tolgoi to Sainshand. Impediments to infrastructure development by individual companies MMCs plan to build a railway impeded Mongolia Mining Corporations plan to put a railway south to China from its Ukhaa Khudag mine has been impeded by resistance from some political leaders, who were greatly concerned that this would cause heavier economic dependency of Mongolia on China. Numerous Mongolians do not trust Chinas intentions towards their motherland, especially after being controlled by the Manchu dynasty for 200 years. SouthGobis plan to build a railway terminated In May 2010, SouthGobi Resources, engaged in coal exploration and mining activity, terminated its plan to build a railway from its 114 million tonnes Ovoot Tolgoi project to the Mongolian-Chinese border because of uncertainty over government policy. The project is located only 42 km from the Chinese border, hence a railway was deemed not essential. Asian Development Bank ADB is funding a logistics project at Zamiin-Uud ($45m) The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is funding a regional logistics development project at Zamiin-Uud with $45 million in loans and grants, which will create a new terminal with road and rail links. Zamiin-Uud is a remote south-eastern Mongolia-Chinese border crossing, through which the majority of current export and import products pass. Once completed, the new terminal will offer contemporary customs and quarantine facilities, which will make transit times shorter and increase capacity. Management will be delegated to a contract operator. ADB will also participate in
Choibalsan is linked to Trans-Siberian railway
New route will help develop Sainshand Park
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the training and support program of the government employees who will oversee and implement the project. ADBs funding will take up 63% of the total costs of $71.6 million. $40 million of the assigned $45 million will be a 32-year loan with a 1% interest rate rising to 1.5%. The rest $5 million be given as a grant. CADEX KK Sep 2010: CADEX KK and Mongolian Railway strategic alliance CADEX KK of Japan and Mongolian Railway, a state-owned company, formed a strategic alliance to improve the railway infrastructure of Mongolia in September 2010. According to the agreement, CADEX KKs Mongolian subsidiary CADEX LLC Mongolia will serve as a project manager and a business consultant to the Mongolian Railway company in acquisition of new technologies and personnel. The alliance is aimed at securing Mongolian Railways long-term growth. By using its project management experience in Asia, large network, and human resources base, CADEX will help Mongolia to catch new business opportunities, develop a stable freight transportation system and achieve efficient exploitation of mineral resources.
$40m in loans $5m in grants
17.8 Mining boom and air industry Domestic airports are soon to start handling international routes International air travel from Mongolia is limited to a number of destinations. Domestic airport infrastructure is already in place to begin handling of international routes from remote mine sites. International air routes are split between numerous carriers MIAT (Beijing/Berlin/Irkutsk/Seoul/Osaka/Tokyo) Aeroflot (Moscow) Korean Air (Seoul) Air China (Beijing) Domestic air routes are split between two carriers Aero Mongolia Eznis Dalanzadgad (South Gobi centre) airport can handle international routes Requirement for new international routes is split evenly between domestic and international carriers. Assignment of new domestic and international routes into Mongolia is regulated by the Mongolian government and MCAA (Mongolian Civil Aviation Authority). A new airport with paved runway was built in 2007 in Dalanzadgad (540km south of Ulaanbaatar). This means that there is an existing paved runway at the Oyu Tolgoi mine site capable of handling Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 aircraft. The government is planning to transform four domestic airports into international airports by 2014.
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Hong Kong market to open up to Mongolia The Hong Kong market is expected to be opened up to Mongolia on a regular basis starting in 2011. Currently, the direct access to Ulaanbaatar from major global financial centres is unavailable.
Note: London and New York time differences vary based on daylight savings time Trial charter flights from MIAT (Summer 2010) During summer 2010, MIAT planned 8 charter flights to Hong Kong but only completed 7. Fragmented demand due to irregular flight times and lower tourist season were seen as the cause for cancellation of the final flight. Mongolian travel agent Juulchin World Tours Corporation and Miramar Travel in Hong Kong acted as agents. The return fare was $550. Planned charter flights from MIAT (beginning April 2011) Twice per week service from Ulaanbaatar to Hong Kong will be organised beginning from April 2011 The plan is to use existing Boeing 737-800 (with 162 seats) to fly to Hong 800 Kong The return fare will be approximately $600-650 International air travel to Mongolia is expected to arise from expat growth at mine sites and business tourist demand linking Ulaanbaatar with Australasia through Hong Kong. ong
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Privatisation of State Properties
18 Privatisation of State Properties

2011-2012 privatisation plans will allow international investors to gain access not only to some of the world's largest unexploited mineral resources, but also to the non-resource sector boom of the fastest growing economy in the world.
1990-2010: SOEs were privatised 2011-2012: several SOEs to be privatised, including Tavan Tolgoi In order to facilitate expansion of the economy based on private sector development, the Mongolian government started privatising state owned enterprises (SOE) through bidding, international tender, and management and ownership contracts over the past twenty years. A number of state properties are on the list to be privatised in the following 2 years, including Tavan Tolgoi, a 6.4 billion tonne coal mine, a quarter of which consists of high quality coking coal. The 2011-2012 privatisation plan for the SOEs has been presented by Mr. Sugar, the Chairman of the State Property Committee (SPC), at the "Mongolia: raising capital" conference in June 2010. This upcoming share issuance of Tavan Tolgoi will not be the first experience in Mongolia. The country went through the first round of privatizations in 1991 with pink and blue vouchers. Due to lack of involvement and participation of citizens, the exercise was seen as unsuccessful. Afterwards, people turned to high interest rate savings at Credit and Savings Cooperatives, which also ended up going bankrupt swallowing a good portion of the middle-income populations savings. Mongolia's plan to privatize its state-owned properties will allow international investors to gain access to some of the world's largest unexploited mineral resources.
1990: first round of privatisations, unsuccessful exercise
International investors to benefit from privatisations
18.1
2011-2012 privatisation strategy
18.1.1 Near term privatistaion targets Baganuur, brown coal, 1.3bn tonnes Current production 3.0 mtpa Capacity 4.0+ mtpa 75% state owned 15% owned by Firebird 1. Baganuur JSC
53% of the Mongolian central electricity system depends on the Baganuur coal supply. Containing estimated reserves of 1.3 billion tonnes of brown coal, Baganuur is the biggest coal supplier to coal consumers in Mongolia. The coal mine satisfies 100% of TPP-2 (Thermal Power Plant 2), 100% of TPP-3 and 50% of TPP-4s (the biggest power plant in Mongolia) coal needs. Between 1996-2004, the Mongolian Government implemented a project to modernize and expand the production capacity of Baganuur, taking $31.1m and $50.9m in loans from the World Bank and the Japanese government respectively. As a result, the
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companys exploitation capacity reached 4.0 mtpa. However, currently Baganuur extracts only around 3.0 mtpa due to old equipment and financial constraints. The state owns 75% of the company and the biggest private shareholder is a New York based investment fund Firebird, which possesses over 15% of the shares, the rest is free float. SPCs conditions of privatisation: Coal resources must be evaluated by JORC standards The mining license must be assessed in terms of a property Power plant and coal liquefaction projects must be studied by professionals, then implemented
Method: Up to 51% of the current state-owned shares will be issued and offered for sale
2. Mongolian electricity supply = 3 grids Largest grid CES CES = 5 power plants CES capacity: 786.3 MW
Erdenet Power Plant and TPP-3
The electricity system in Mongolia consists of three independent grids. The largest one is the Central Energy System (CES), which covers the most populated area of the country, including Ulaanbaatar. The installed capacity of the CES area is 786.3 MW, which is provided by five main power plants in Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet and Darkhan. There are also two provincial centres with individual power plants that are not connected to the main grids and meet the regional demand through local networks.
Power Plant
Installed Capacity (MWe) 709.5 48.0 28.8 786.3
Available Capacity (MWe) 554.7 38.6 21.0 614.3
Capacity Boilers (MWth) 3,978.0 477.0 318.0 4,773.0
District Heating (MWth) 1,523.0 210.0 140.0 1,873.0
Indus. Stream (MWth) 192.0 49.0 24.0 265.0
Commissioning year
Ulaanbaatar TTP-2,3,4 Darkhan Erdenet Total CES
1961-1991 1966, 1986 1987-1989 -
Source: Energy Efficiency Technical Report, Ulaanbaatar CES consumes 80% of domestic coal supply Constant power outages and water supply failures All five plants are coal-fired and of Soviet design. They are used in the production of electricity, hot water, heating and steam. 80% of domestic demand for coal is consumed by the CES. Power outages and water supply failures are common in Mongolia because the central grid is unable to meet the daily demand at its peak due to poor peaking potential of the plants.
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Current supply: 650MW Current deficit: 120MW 2013 deficit: 500MW SPCs conditions of privatisation: Investment must be made to improve technology: Heating capacity must be increased Costs must be reduced The Mongolian electricity system currently produces 650MW, leading to a deficit of more than 120 MW. The deficit is covered by expensive imports from Russia and has been forecasted to increase to 500 MW by 2013, as a result of Mongolias economic growth and mining related industrialisation.
Method: 3. MIAT largest carrier, state-owned Privatization will be implemented via concession agreements
Mongolian Airlines MIAT
MIAT or Mongolian Airlines, a state-owned company, is the largest carrier in the country and currently offers only international flights. MIAT flies to Beijing, Berlin, Seoul and Tokyo. The company is planning to organise charter flights to Hong Kong from Ulaanbaatar starting in summer 2011. Method: Privatization will be implemented via an international management and ownership contract. 4. Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE)
LSE to manage MSE
The description of the MSE has been provided earlier in this report. In October 2010, the London Stock Exchange was selected as the international partner to assist in reforming the MSE. Method: Privatization will be implemented via a management contract. An experienced team will assume administration of the stock exchange. The contract terms will be announced in early 2011. 5. Mongolian Telecom
MTC national telecommunications company 200+20 thousand customers 23% of total internet users
Mongolia Telecom Company (MTC) is the Mongolian national telecommunications company that offers a variety of services to its customers. Currently Mongolia is connected to 150 countries via MTC. The company also operates in mobile phone, data network, cable TV, radio and TV broadcasting, and intranet network sectors. It has 200k customers in the land line telephone segment and 20 thousand users in the mobile phone segment. 23% of total internet users in Mongolia are MTCs customers.
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The company was partially privatized in 1995, when a Mongolian-Korean joint Mongolian venture was formed. Korean Telecommunications Company acquired 40% ownership.
Share ownership structure after the first privatisation: 54% of shares owned by the Mongolian government 40% of shares owned by South Korean KT Corporation rean 6% of shares owned by the citizens of Mongolia
Method: The state will offer its portion of shares to be privatised to the Korean KT Corporation first on a contractual basis. If an agreement can not be reached, the state will open a tender. 6. Mineral resources
The government will bundle in groups the state owned shares from the 15 strategic deposits by types of minerals and certain percentages of them will be sold through domestic and international stock exchanges. New Joint Stock companies will be established in the process.
18.1.2 Detailed maps of planned privatisations The following are the detailed maps of the planned privatisation processes:
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Tavan Tolgoi coal mine (TT) is currently 100% owned by Erdenes MGL LLC which is ful controlled by the State Property Committee. fully Tavan Tolgoi privatisation: 10% to citizens 10% to Mongolian companies 29% to IPO The SPC is going to split the deposit into two blocks. In October 2010, Erdenes ErdenesTavan Tolgoi Ltd, a subsidiary of Erdenes MGL, was set up for the development and operation of the TT coal deposit. Erdenes MGL is intending to retain 51% ownership of the Eastern Block and privatise the rest by splitting 20:29 between Eastern Mongolian and international investors. That is, 10% will be distributed to the citizens of Mongolia at no cost, 10% sold to Mongolian private enterprises at a substantial price and 29% released through domestic and international stock exchanges (IP0). Funds raised through IPO will be devoted to financing the infrastructure and working capital of the Eastern block. The Western block, however, is going to be estern handed over to strategic investors who will assume entire responsibility for the blocks development, mine infrastructure and coal marketing independently from the government of Mongolia. Contract miners will be able to participate in the development of the Eastern block for a fixed service fee, while strategic investors will be obliged to transfer a portion of their future income to the government of Mongolia.
Eastern block to contract miners Western block to strategic investors
Source: State Property Committee The State Property Committee will bundle the coal assets it holds from the Property strategic deposits, except Tavan Tolgoi, to create a Coal Asset Joint Stock Company, and partially privatise that, retaining 70% of the shares and releasing the remaining 30% on the domestic and international stock exchanges through an international IPO. The Coal Asset Company will in turn own 90% of Shivee Ovoo, 75% of Baganuur, 34% of Nariin Sukhait, and 34% or higher stake of other coal deposits.
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Source: State Property Committee The State Property Committee will bundle the copper and silver assets it holds from the strategic deposits to create a Copper and Silver Joint Stock Company, and partially privatise that, retaining 70% of the shares and releasing the remaining 30% on the domestic and international stock exchanges through an stock IPO. The Copper and Silver Company will in turn own 51% of Erdenet copper factory, 100% of Asgat silver deposit, 50% of Tsagaan Suvarga copper/molybdenum deposit and 34% of the Oyu Tolgoi deposit. Copper smelter in Sainshand to increase valu of Cu resources The plan is to construct a copper smelting factory in Sainshand to increase the value of copper mines. The private sector will be the driving force for the development of the project. If the government of Mongolia arranges for construction of a copper smelter, then according to the Investment Agreement between the government of Mongolia and Ivanhoe Mines: Ivanhoe Mines must provide Rio Tinto's (or its affiliates) proprietary p technologies held in joint venture with Outokumpu, for the operation of Outokumpu the smelter.
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Source: State Property Committee The State Property Committee will bundle the iron ore assets it holds from the strategic deposits to create an Iron Assets Joint Stock Company, and partially privatise that, retaining 70% of the shares and releasing the remaining 30% on the domestic and international stock exchanges through an IPO. The Iron Assets Company will in turn own 100% of Temurtei iron ore deposit, 34% of Temurtein Company Ovoo zinc deposit, 100% of Temur Tolgoi iron ore deposit, and 100% of Darkhan Metallurgical plant.
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The State Property Committee has already bundled the uranium assets it holds from the strategic deposits and created a Uranium Assets company MonAtom LLC. The privatisation plan is similar to the previous cases, to retain 70% of the business and release the remaining 30% on domestic and international stock exchanges through an IPO. Mon Atom will in turn own 51% of Central Asia Uranium Company (58% owned by Khan Resources), 51% of Gurvan Bulag uranium deposit, 51% of Mardai uranium deposit (also owned by Khan Resources), 34% of Coge Gobi LLC (a joint Mongolia-French company, a subsidiary of Areva), and 51% of Gurvan Saikhan uranium deposit. According to the Uranium Law (2009), the State is entitled to control 51% of all uranium assets in Mongolia.
18.1.3 State Property Committe (The following bullet points have been highlighted by the SPC) Structure, duties and team The State Property Committee is a Government agency with the functions to own, use and protect state owned properties; The State Property Committee operates with a total of 65 employees including a Chairman, 8 part time members, 3 departments and 4 divisions. The Government designates a Committee member based on the proposal of the Chairman.
Full powers of the State Property Committee Administer the activities on improvement of ownership, storage and protection of the state property and monitor its implementation; Manage and oversee the recording of primary accounting documents, census and balance sheets of the state property, monitor and control its use and take measures to improve its efficiency; Negotiate with relevant organization and determine planning, profit and revenue distribution, remuneration norms and normative of a state owned legal body; Manage privatization of State Owned Enterprises based on a list approved by the Government and report performance; Provide professional and methodological assistances to manage local properties; Assign a state property representative in a state owned legal body and monitor its activities; Review and approve proposal and order of excluding immovable property or movable property belonging to the fixed asset from account and make a decision on new purchase; Other powers specified in the law.
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18.1.4 Recent developments Mongolian Stock Exchange Contract agreement signed between MSE and LSE In December 2010, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) signed a contract agreement with the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE). It was informed that LSE officials will arrive in Mongolia in the third week of January, when the terms of the contract agreement will be announced to the public. Tavan Tolgoi Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, sole owner of the deposit, holds 15bn shares. Eastern block privatisation to domestic investors in Q1 2011, afterwards IPO Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi (TT) LLC, a subsidiary of the State Property Committee owned Erdenes MGL, is the current fully authorised owner of TT licenses and holds 15 billion shares. The delegation of 10% of the Eastern Blocks ownership rights to the citizens of Mongolia and the sale of another 10% at a market price to Mongolian private enterprises will be organized in Q1 of 2011. The planned IPO of selling 29% of the same block on domestic and foreign stock exchanges will be organized in stages and start being implemented as early as possible in 2011. Tender for the contract miner of the Eastern Block is ongoing. 2011 plans: To raise funds for project financing To cooperate with international and domestic investment banks and advisors in order to prepare for the IPO To start work on infrastructure development, including water supply, mine camps, power plant and roads. Eastern block privatisation to domestic investors in Q1 2011, afterwards IPO Deadline for strategic investors: 17 Jan 2011 Deadline for contract miners: 27 Jan 2011 The tender for strategic investors for the Western Block has been officially th announced and closed on 17 January at 16:00. According to the latest update, Chinas Shenhua Energy Co, Peabody Energy Corp from the US, a Russian consortium led by Gazprom, a consortium of four Japanese trading houses, including, Itochu Corp., Sumitomo Corp., Sojitz Corp. and Marubeni Corp., a consortium of 10 South Korean companies, including Posco and Korea Electric Power Corp., Anglo-Australian mining companies Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, Brazils Vale, and Indias International Coal Ventures Pvt, a joint venture of five state-run companies, have expressed their interest to participate in the bid. The tender for contract miners for the Eastern Block has been officially announced th and is about to close on the 27 January 2011. Erdenet Factory, MongolRosTsvetMet and Dornod Uranium 14 December 2010, 9 cooperation agreements signed between Mongolia and Russia: Debt settlement Dornod Uranium JV Erdenet + MonRosTsvetMet = merger & IPO In December 2010, on his last visit to Moscow, the Mongolian Prime Minister Sukhbaataryn Batbold has signed nine cooperation agreements with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. The negotiations included settlements on the Mongolian debts to Russia and the national level joint venture, Dornod Uranium. An agreement was signed specifying the business plan for the uranium deposit, according to which the joint venture would start functioning in 160 days. It also informed that the two existing Mongolian-Russian joint ventures, Erdenet and MongolRosTsvetMet, may merge and market their stock. Together the two
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companies account for about 20% of the Mongolian GDP with Erdenet Copper Mine taking up 26.5% of total exports. Extensive modernization of Erdenet Copper Mine and MongolRosTsvetMet is currently in progress, and the privatisation process is intended to considerably enhance the two companies competitiveness and have a constructive effect on the Mongolian economy.
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Demographics
19 Demographics
A country the size of Western Europe with only 2.8 million people...
2009: 2.8m people (NSO estimate) 59% below 30 27% below 14
Population growth rate 1.2%
In 2009, the National Statistics Office estimated that the population of Mongolia was 2.8 million people. The population growth rate is approximately 1.2%. Around 59% of the citizens are below the age of 30 and 27% are below the age of 14. Compared to EU countries and Japan that are going through a period of demographic winter, Mongolias population is significantly younger. In November 2010, the government conducted the 10 - yearly population Census, the results of which are yet to be released in 2011. POPULATION, IN THOUSANDS 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: National Statistics Office UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % OF TOTAL LABOUR FORCE 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: IMF ResCap Mongolia 101 P a g e | 127
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Demographics
13% unemployment rate in 2009 The unemployment rate in Mongolia has been lower than 4% since 2002. However, during the peak of the economic crisis (2009) it reached 13% and now is returning to its regular levels. Since the transition into a market economy, the overall fertility rate (children per woman) in Mongolia has been declining at a steep rate compared to other countries in the world. According to UN estimations, the fertility rate in 19701975 was 7.3 children per woman, while in 2005-2010 the number has decreased to 1.9. Mongolia is becoming more urbanized with more rural population migrating to the capital city in search of better living conditions. Currently about 40% of the population live in Ulaanbaatar, around 20% live in Darkhan, Erdenet, provincial centres and soum settlements and the remaining 40% live in rural areas. Seminomadic and nomadic herders make up around 30% of the entire population. 85% of Mongolias population consist of ethnic Mongolians, out of which 90% consists of Khalkha Mongols. Buryats, Durbet and other ethnic groups make up the remaining 10%. People of Turkic origin, including Kazakhs, Tuvans and Uzbeks represent 7% of the population. The remaining 8% consist of Tungusic, Russian and Chinese people, although most Russians have left the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Since 1990: steadily declining fertility rate
40% of population live in UB, 20% in other urban areas 40% in rural areas 30% are herders 90% of population: Khalkha Mongols
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Languages
20 Languages
Many Mongolians have a good grasp of Russian and English
Official language Khalkha Mongolian Cyrillic script adopted in 1937 The official language in the country is Khalkha Mongolian. One can encounter other dialects such as Oiratian (spoken by Durbet) and Buryatian across the country. Speakers of Khamnigan Mongolian also exist. The western region of Mongolia is occupied by Kazakhs and Tuvans who speak languages of Turkic origin. Mongolians adopted the Cyrillic alphabet from Russia in 1937, before which they used to write in their traditional vertical script. The majority people, especially the older population, speak fluent Russian, making it the most popular foreign language in the country. Currently English is gradually replacing Russian, being preferred among the younger generation. A substantial number of Mongolians work and live in South Korea, prompting the Korean language to also gain popularity in Mongolia. Plenty of youth are learning Chinese with growing importance of China as the other neighbouring power. Japanese is also widely spoken, especially due to the possibility to get access to Japanese government funded scholarship programs. Older Mongolian academics, who studied in Germany during the Soviet times, can speak fluent German. Because households endeavour to send their children abroad for higher education (as long as there are possibilities to support them throughout their stay) many younger Mongolians today fluently speak Western European languages such as French, German and Italian.
Traditional Mongolian script Widely spoken languages: Russian English Chinese Korean Japanese Western European
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Religion
21 Religion
Religious practices were largely impeded by the Communist regime.
50% - Buddhists 40% - not religious 6% - follow Shamanism, Bahai & Christianity 4% - Muslims
According to the CIA World Factbook and the U.S. Department of State, 50% of Mongolia's population follow the Tibetan Buddhism, 40% are listed as having no religion, 6% are Shamanist, Baha'i and Christian, and 4% are Muslims. Historically, various forms of Shamanism have been practiced and widely accepted as the main religion by the Mongolian nomads. Tibetan Buddhism was first introduced to Mongolia during the ruling of Yuan Dynasty and currently is the most commonly practiced religion, although Shamanism is still popular. During the Mongol Empire Islam was also favoured and the three khanates (independent states of that time) adopted Islam. Following the Communist influence, throughout the XX century, religious practices were largely restrained by the government. The Buddhist Temples were a replication of the pre-socialist feudal system and the Khaan of Mongolia was the th head of the Temple (The 8 Jebtsundamba Khutuktu Bogd Khaan). In 1930, most of Mongolias 700 Buddhist temples were destroyed and around 18,000 monks (lamas) were killed under the regime led by Marshal Choibalsan, who held a position equivalent to todays Prime Minister. While in 1924 there were around 100,000 Buddhist monks, by 1990 the number decreased to only 110. Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Democratic Revolution of 1990 restored the legitimacy of religious practices. The Tibetan Buddhism again became the most practiced religion in Mongolia. Other religious streams were also resumed, including Islam and Christianity. Statistics suggest that the number of Christians rose from just 4 in 1989 to 40,000 in 2008.
First Shamanism, then Buddhism, then Socialism (destruction of monasteries), then Democracy (resumption of religious practices)
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Equity Research
1 Equity Research
Stock data Price, MNT Price, US$ The peak, MNT 52Wk Range, MNT Mkt cap, MNTbn Mkt cap, US$mn Avg daily turnover, US$ Free float, % YTD performance, % Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA EV/Resource Dividend yield
1.1
530,000 436.86 670,000 120,000 - 670,000 279 230 8,467 11.90% 293%
Tavan Tolgoi
5.27 6.53 116% 58% -62% 59% 1 3.55 61%
Company brief: There are two companies named Tavan Tolgoi (TT). One is the 6.4 billion tonne deposit Tavan Tolgoi which is 100% owned by the state-owned Erdenes MGL and the other one is Tavan Tolgoi JSC listed on the MSE. The main Tavan Tolgoi deposit complex is partially owned by Erdenes MGL (6 mining licenses), Mongolia Mining (1 mining license), Moril Luu (1 mining license), Broad (1 mining license), Daitsuki (1 mining license) and Tavan Tolgoi JSC with 2 mining licenses. The South Gobi provincial government owns 51% of TT JSC and the rest is privately held. TT JSC is the biggest company on the MSE by market capitalization and the third largest coal miner in Mongolia by production volume. In 2004, the Company signed a coal export contract with a Chinese client and since then its coal export to China has substantially increased. The company cooperates with Tavan Tolgoi Trans private company in transporting coal to China. Although in Gansu and Inner Mongolia semi-soft coal and hard coking coal prices are around $85/t and $155/t respectively, the company is still selling their coking coal at $7.5/t to the local market due to the state-regulated sale prices and is exporting at around $25-35/t. Since 2007 the company almost tripled the extracting capacity to 2mtpa. In 2009, they extracted over 2m tonnes with 170 employees. Deposit: Tavan Tolgoi JSCs license area is 169ha located in the South Gobi region of Mongolia, 250km from the Mongolian border with China and 550km from Ulaanbaatar. The total proven reserve is 20.5m tonnes and the resource is 60m tonnes of coking coal with a calorific value of 6,500-7,500kcal/kg, 20% ash and 8.5% moisture. Financial highlights: In the last few years, total revenue increased due to the companys investment of $1.0m into new technology and equipments. In 2009, the company sold over 2.5mt of coal to both foreign markets and local clients, and worked with $65.8m revenue and $29.5m of net profit. Revenue has surged 12 times since 2006 and 65 times since 2003. Cash cost per tonne of Tavan Tolgoi JSC coal mine is approx $11-12, which is very low compared to international peers. As a result of the low cost, Tavan Tolgoi JSC mines profitability is great (ROA at 103%, ROE at 116%, gross margin at 58% and net margin at 44.8%, as of FY2009).
Share price performance, MNT
700 600 MNT'000 500 400 300 200 100 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10
Shareholders
Key financials, MNT million unless otherwise stated

Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) Sales growth, % 2007 32,564 12,863 24,425 15,519 638% -37% 52% 40% 0.8 301% 2008 47,797 16,134 30,636 23,984 808% -8% 45% 34% 2.2 47% 2009 95,436 42,753 81,178 58,835 1091% -62% 58% 45% 1.0 100%
8% 7%
Provincial governor Ajnai Corporation 51%
34%
Board members
Retail shareholders Source: Company data and SCH&CD
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1.2
10,600 8.74 11,000 2,800 - 11,000 222 183 71,023 11.37% 203%
Stock data Price, MNT Price, US$ The peak, MNT 52Wk Range, MNT Mkt cap, MNTbn Mkt cap, US$mn Avg daily turnover, US$ Free float, % YTD performance, % Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA EV/Resource Dividend yield Share price performance, MNT
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10
Baganuur
51% 11% -541% -15% 0.39 -
Company brief: 53% of the Mongolian central electricity system depends on Baganuur coal supply. Containing an estimated reserves of 1.3 billion tonnes of brown coal, Baganuur is the biggest coal supplier to coal consumers in Mongolia. The coal mine satisfies 100% of TPP-2 (Thermal Power Plant 2), 100% of TPP-3 and 50% of TPP-4s (the biggest power plant in Mongolia) coal needs. From 19962004, the Mongolian Government modernized and expanded production at Baganuur by acquiring $31.1m and $50.9m in loans from the World Bank and the Japanese government respectively. As a result, the companys exploitation capacity reached 4mtpa. Currently the mine extracts 3mtpa due to central-region demand, old equipments and financial constraints. The State owns 75% of the company and the biggest private shareholder is Firebird investment fund, holding over 14%, the rest is free float. Baganuur JSC is included in the 2011-2012 privatization plan, approved by the parliament of Mongolia. Deposit: Baganuur coal deposit is one of the strategically important deposits of Mongolia (area: 0.6ha, waste:10-60m on average, general coal seam: 10.3-17.2m, coal seam in the central part: 25-96m). The mine is located 139km east of Ulaanbaatar and has access to railway. Baganuurs strip ratio is around 1:1 to 6:1. The total proven reserve is 600mt of coal with a calorific value of 3,2003,500kcal/kg, 12.9% ash and 32.9% moisture. Financial highlights: Despite the mine making losses due to the regulated coal prices, the reserve based valuation of Baganuur is significantly low compared to international peers. Baganuurs EV/Reserve multiple is 0.39$/t. In 2009, the company produced 3mt of coal at COGS of $30.5m or $10.15/t mining cost. SG&A and other costs were $0.97/t. In 2009, the company operated with a gross margin of 11%, an operating margin of 1% (due to the slight relaxation the sale price to $12.54), net losses of $6.3m (due to exchange rate adjustments of debt and interest rate payments). In December 2010, the Parliament made a decision to cover all losses acquired from the exchange rate risk, inducing Baganuurs shareholder equity to increase by around $13.8m. Currently the company has $54.3m of long term debt on the balance sheet. In 2010, as part of the States investment plan of $8.5m, Baganuur JSC purchased two additional 100t capacity trucks for $2.9m. Key financials, MNT million unless otherwise stated
Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Dividend yield, % Sales growth, % 2007 34,308 -7,184 -342 61,466 105% -1% -21% na na 0% 7% 2008 43,174 -11,077 -528 64,776 109% 6% -26% na na 0% 26% 2009 49,483 -9,121 -435 75,472 71% 11% -18% na na 0% 15%
MNT'000
9/4/10
10/4/10
11/4/10
Shareholders
14%
11%
State
Master Fund/Firebird 75% Free Float
Source: Company data, SCH&CD and ResCap
12/4/10
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1.3 Shivee Ovoo
12,800 10.55 14,900 2,400 - 14,900 172 142 3,063 1% 288%
37% 8% -1268% -68% 0.08 -
Company Brief: Shivee Ovoo, an open pit mine, satisfies 25% of coal consumption in Mongolia. 80% of Shivee Ovoo coal production is supplied to TPP-4, the biggest power plant in Mongolia, and the remainder goes to Ulaanbaatar Railway, MongolRosTsevetment, Bor Undur, Sainshand, Zuun Mod and others. The Mongolian Government owns 90% of the company through Erdenes MGL and 9.0% is held by Firebird Fund. Production capacity of the company increased to 2mtpa owing to the $67.6m loan from the Japanese government obtained in 1998-2004. The company produces 1.4mtpa of coal. In 2010, the Parliament of Mongolia established a cooperation contract to build a thermal power plant relying on Shivee Ovoo coal deposit. The Mongolian and Chinese governments signed an agreement to erect a 4800MW thermal power plant, from which 4500MW would be exported to China and the rest supplied to local consumers. The Mongolian government plans to build TPP-5 in UB, which will utilise 4mtpa of Shivee Ovoos coal. The Mongolian electricity consumption is 1,261kWh per capita (3 times, 6 times and 13 times lower than Kazakhstan, Russia and Canada respectively), however, the demand is inevitably increasing. Deposit: Shivee Ovoo coal deposit, one of the strategically important deposits of Mongolia, covers 4,293ha with a width of 35km and a length of 15km, located 260km southeast of Ulaanbaatar and in 20km from the Choir railway station, one of the stops of the Trans-Mongolian rail line. Total proven reserve is 600mt of brown coal and 2.7bn tonnes of resources. Out of the proven reserve, 564mt is economically viable. Coal contents are 2,963-4,407kcal/kg calorific value, 40% ash content, 8.5% of moisture, 0.5% sulphur and 43% volatile material. Financial highlights: At present, resources of the deposit is significantly undervalued considering the uncertainty over future dealing pipeline of Shivee Ovoo and regulated tariffs on electricity and coal prices. The coal mine had operational margins of 1%, 5% and 7% in 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively, even though the company incurred net losses due to the exchange rate adjustments of long term debt. The company has accumulated $63.7m of debt on the balance sheet as a result of the long term loan, which was obtained in 1998-2004 to increase the companys mining capacity. In December 2010, the Parliament made a decision to cover all losses acquired from the exchange rate risk, inducing Shivee Ovoos shareholder equity to increase by around $13.1m. Key financials, MNT million unless otherwise stated

16.0 14.0 12.0 MNT'000 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10
Shareholders
1% 9% State
Master Fund/Firebird 90% Free Float
Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Dividend yield, % Sales growth, %
2007 10,813 -566 -42 68,325 49% 3% -5% na na 0% 10%
2008 14,731 -6,318 -471 70,242 55% 8% -43% na na 0% 36%
2009 16,202 -11,048 -823 92,244 45% 10% -68% na na 0% 10%
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1.4
1,855 1.53 2,000 630 - 2,000 138 114 18,612 8.10% 194%
Stock data Price, MNT Price, US$ The peak, MNT 52Wk Range, MNT Mkt cap, MNTbn Mkt cap, US$mn Avg daily turnover, US$ Free float, % YTD performance, % Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
APU
Company brief: APU is the fourth largest company on the MSE by market cap. It is the leading brewery and alcohol producer in Mongolia, taking up over 50% of beer and over 40% of vodka markets. The company distributes their products through over 6000 trade and shopping centres nationwide, the largest distribution network in Mongolia. APU has registered the vodka trademark "Chinggis Khan" in over 20 countries worldwide. On June 11, 2010, APU opened a new brewery factory with a capacity of 58.4m litres/year of beer, after receiving a $25m loan from the EBRD in May 2010. In 2009, APU produced 230,000 hectolitres of beer with about 700 employees. The company has an intensive plan to double its brewery capacity by 2014. Market presence: APU is the biggest player in the beer market. The other major players in Mongolia are MCS and GEM. APUs market share in the beer market has increased dramatically in recent years. Financial highlights: In the last 2 years, the companys revenue increased 9 times to $59.9m and total assets increased 1.8 times to $49.4m. Gross margin is robust at 22%. In FY2009, ROE reached 31%, the highest in the companys history, on the back of net sales increasing 61% and high leverage of 1.24 x of D/E ratio. In 2009, the company expanded sales into urban markets.
4.35 17.31 31% 23% 119% 13% 7.58 5%

2.5 2.0 MNT'000 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10
Shareholders

Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Dividend yield, % Sales growth, % 2007 10,114 367 5 39,751 0.84 517% 20% 4% na 6% nmf na 2008 53,799 3,856 52 47,918 0.63 127% 21% 7% na 29% 5% 432% 2009 86,867 8,070 109 71,858 1.01 119% 23% 9% 7.6x 31% 5% 61%
8%
Shunkhlai
40%
52%
Two key shareholders Free float
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1.5
3,626 2.99 9,000 2,100 - 4,000 94 77 800 5.30% 58%
Stock data Price, MNT Price, US$ The peak, MNT 52Wk Range, MNT Mkt cap, MNTbn Mkt cap, US$mn Avg daily turnover, US$ Free float, % YTD performance, % Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA Dividend yield Share price performance, MNT
Mongolia Telecom
2.82 17.75 9% 16% 12% 14% 16.6 -
Company brief: Mongolian Telecom was established the under name of Mongolian Telecommunication Company (MTC) in 1992. Then MTC was divided into two separate companies, Information Communication Network Company (ICNC) and Telecom Mongolia JSC. ICNC is currently a 100% state owned company and Mongolian Telecom was partially privatized. Mongolia Telecoms shareholders are the Mongolian Government - 55%, Korean Telecom - 40% and the rest is free float. Mongolia Telecom is a quasi-monopoly in the land line telecommunications sector. The company has branches in all aimag and soum centres in Mongolia. The company also offers Wireless Local Loop (WLL), internet and internet based services. Mongolia Telecom is the leasing backbone from (ICNC) and has its own fiber optic network along the railway. The WLL network of Mongolia Telecom Company was introduced with South Korean LG Electronics Companys help. A network, with a capacity of over 10,000 users, 7 base stations and a CDMA-based wireless network called MY Phone, was introduced on July 8th, 2002. Within its expansion of services, the company introduced CDMA 450MHz, NGN+CDMA+IN, payment systems at such banks as TDB, Khan and Savings and extended its prepaid card distributors network with ATMs. Market presence: The number of fixed telephone subscribers per 100 people is 5.3, which is far below the world average of 17.8. The number of mobile phone subscribers per 100 people is 82.2, well above the world average of 67. The overall Mongolian telecommunication basic network leased by the ICNC consists of 3,100km of analogue, and approximately 900km of digital lines connecting Ulaanbaatar and provincial centres. Mongolia Telecom has access to the INTELSAT satellites in the Indian Ocean region and to the Express-6 satellite of the INTERSPUTNIK system. The Wireless Local Loop (WLL) services were newly introduced in May 1999. The Mobile phone market has undergone a remarkable boom, with mobile phone users increasing 26% yoy to 2.38m as of June 2010. However, in current years, customers of fixed telephones have been decreasing at about 10% per annum. Financial highlights: In current years, the companys revenue has been decreasing due to the shrinking fixed telephone market in Mongolia. The companys introduction of new services could not offset the decrease in revenue land line services.
4.5 4.0 MNT'000 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10
Shareholders

5% State Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Sales growth, % 2007 31,471 5,321 206 41,487 0.83 -3% 22% 17% 19.6 16% na 2008 26,655 2,776 107 39,736 1.09 -11% 16% 10% 9.3 8% -15% 2009 24,657 2,893 112 38,147 1.26 -11% 16% 12% 16.6 9% -7%
40%
Korean Telecom 55% Free Float
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Equity Research
1.6 Sharyn Gol
10,300 8.49 13,500 1,696 - 13,500 74 61 31,282 8.14% 507%
Company Brief: Sharyn Gol is the only MSE listed coal mine with an approved JORC resource. In 1995, the company was partially privatized and floated on the MSE and in 2005 it became a 100% private company. The company has a capacity to extract 2mtpa of coal. It produces around 0.5mtpa and 80% of its coal is supplied to Darkhan and Erdenet Thermal Power Plants (TPP). Currently, the company is owned by a New York based Fund Firebird (54.4%), local management team (38.8%) and the rest is free float. As the Major shareholders want to convert the company into a western style coal company, the business is undergoing fullscale restructuring. The board has been changed with 2 Australians and 2 Americans and a new British CFO was appointed. They are proposing to expand its drilling program to 30k meters. Deposit: Sharyn Gol deposit is located 50km south of Darkhan city and 240km north of Ulaanbaatar, and connected through railroad to the cities. The deposits total license area is 1,8ha. According to the company management, the total reserve is over 100-150mt of coal as a result of additional drilling of 16K meters. Sharyn Gol recently found new coal seams, as well as highly mineralised continuation of the current coal seams they are mining at the moment on the license area. The coal quality is high grade thermal coal and in some places semisoft coking coal. According to the companys announcement made on 10 October 2010, a new coal seam was discovered and most coal samples have a calorific value of over 7,000kcal/kg on an air-dried, ash-free basis as of early laboratory results. Financial highlights: The companys EV/Reserve multiple of 0.53$/t is relatively cheap compared to international peers. Regulated low coal prices and delays with payments for delivered coal by the TPPs cause financial problems to the company. In FY2009, despite the fact that companys production decreased by 22% to 426kt, net profit increased to the highest point of $180m since 1998 as a result of reduced non-operational costs. As for exports, historically the company sold coal to Russia and China (2006, 2007). For the company to be able to export coal to China $70 million must be spent on infrastructure, in which case production capacity could be increased to 2.5 mtpa.
51.66 337.04 17% 11% 545% 4% 63.16 0.5 -

16.0 14.0 MNT'000 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10
Shareholders
Master Fund/Firebird 54% 22% Batmunkh Batkhuu Sharyn Gol Energo Batbold 14% 3% 1% 3% 0% 3% MDR Balihuu Dambachultem Anod Bank Free Float

Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Sales growth, % 2007 8,198 173 24 12,590 2.84 1005% 9% 2% nmf 17% 17% 2008 10,526 61 8.5 10,790 2.10 737% 10% 1% nmf 5% 28% 2009 8,812 219 30 9,535 2.22 545% 11% 2% nmf 17% -16%
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Equity Research
1.7 Gobi
Stock data Price, MNT Price, US$ The peak, MNT 52Wk Range, MNT Mkt cap, MNTbn Mkt cap, US$mn Avg daily turnover, US$ Free float, % YTD performance, % Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA Dividend yield Share price performance, MNT
8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 MNT'000 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10
5,749 4.74 9,002.00 3,850 - 7,700 45 37 13,764 16% 42%
1.8 29.09 6% 27% 38% 15% 13.22 -
Company brief: Gobi JSC is the leading producer of cashmere and camel wool th products in Mongolia and the 5 largest manufacturer in the cashmere market worldwide, with an annual capacity to process 1,000 tonnes of raw cashmere, 200 tonnes of raw camel wool and 40 tonnes of sheep and yak wool. The companys products are sold through its own stores and vendor companies in the domestic market, and mostly through vendor companies in the international market. Even though historically 80% of its products are exported to international markets, essentially Europe (60% of its export), in current years exports have been tightening. In 2009, 71.5% of total sales were derived from the domestic market and 28.5% from export. The company has over 130 partners in over 30 countries. According to management estimates, in 2009 Gobi held 42% of market share in the domestic finished products market. Market presence: China and Mongolia are the two biggest pure cashmere producers with 60% and 30% of the worlds pure cashmere market share respectively. Chinese cashmere traders and companies buy as much as 75% of Mongolian raw cashmere and the rest is bought by domestic cashmere manufacturers. China is key to the Mongolian cashmere sector in terms of cashmere products and raw cashmere purchases. Financial highlights: Over the last 3 years, the companys sales outside of Mongolia decreased and domestic sales rose sharply. In 2009, domestic sales increased 44% and foreign sales decreased 39%. However, the company has activated marketing efforts internationally, opening their own shops in North America and Europe. But in 2010, their product competitiveness in foreign markets weakened on the appreciating national currency versus the greenback. As a result, managements ambitious goal to increase sales up to $100m by 2012, recovering Gobi brands reputation and former market internationally, appears challenging. Gobis vertically integrated business model allows it to control production costs, with the exception of raw material costs.
9/4/10
10/4/10
11/4/10
12/4/10
Shareholders

Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Sales growth, % 2007 20,282 -732 -93.92 27,069 2.22 24% 8% -4% na -3% 16% 2008 19,585 689 88.35 30,778 1.92 34% 18% 4% 15.4 3% -3% 2009 20,247 1,501 192.51 34,018 1.48 38% 27% 7% 13.2 6% 3%
74%
Tavan Bogd
Foreign 2 stakeholders 11% 16% Free float
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Equity Research
1.8 BDSec
Stock data Price, MNT Price, US$ The peak, MNT 52Wk Range, MNT Mkt cap, MNTbn Mkt cap, US$mn Avg daily turnover, US$ Free float, % YTD performance, %
2,500 2.06 4,000 1,600 - 2,700 28 23 7,267 19% 56%
Company brief: BDSec is a local brokerage firm in Mongolia. The company was established in 1991 under the name of Bayandukhum in the Tuv aimag (Central province) as a part of the privatization program in Mongolia. BDSec was the first underwriter in Mongolia licensed by the Financial Regulatory Commission in 2004. The company is now licensed with brokerage, dealer, underwriting and investment advisory services. Major shareholders are Mr. Dayanbilguun, Alexander Zwahr, Master fund-1 LLC and Master fund-2 LLC (together Firebird Fund) Market presence: BDSec is the largest brokerage firm by transactions made on the MSE with a market share of 50% in total trading turnover. They serve 17% of domestic account holders and 47% of foreign account holders at the Securities Clearing House and the Central Depository of Mongolia. Financial highlights: In 2009, due to the crisis, the companys total assets declined 17% to $3.96m. As the company revenue decreased 13% to $1.45m in 2009, gross profit sharply fell and the company had net losses of $380k. As a result, shareholders equity decreased 5% to $3.88m.
Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
5.69 -9% 5% 1% -

2.9 2.7 2.5 MNT'000 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10
Shareholders

Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Sales growth, % 2007 2,020 991 121 2,111 2.36 3% 100% 49% na 99% na 2008 2,023 363 33 5,899 0.91 16% 64% 18% na 10% 0% 2009 1,765 -455 -41 4,853 0.95 1% 5% -26% na -9% -13%
Management team 56% Master Fund/Firebird
25%
19%
Free Float
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Equity Research
1.9 Aduunchuluun
Stock data Price, MNT Price, US$ The peak, MNT 52Wk Range, MNT Mkt cap, MNTbn Mkt cap, US$mn Avg daily turnover, US$ Free float, % YTD performance, % Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA EV/Resource Dividend yield Share price performance, MNT
9.0 8.0 7.0 MNT'000 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10
7,000 5.77 8,331 450 - 8,331 22 18 127 8% 1334%
10.34 53.84 19% 33% 14% 4.5 0.82 -
Company brief: Aduunchuluun joint stock Company was established with underground mining operations in 1954 to supply the Eastern Mongolian region with coal and meet Choibalsan citys electricity demand. Later in 1969, the current open-pit mining was given a start with a capacity of producing 200ktpa of coal. In 1979, with research from Russian economists and technical analysis teams, the scope of operations was expended and capacity increased to 600ktpa. The current capacity, with innovative technology and equipment, allows a production of 1.52mtpa. Today Aduunchuluun LLC, which functions with well trained workers and skilled managers, is fully capable of satisfying Dornod Power Plants long term coal needs. The deposit is included in the list of Mongolias tier-2 deposits of strategic importance. Choibalsan city is connected to Russia by railway. Aduunchuuun coal products can also be delivered to China via Russian and Eastern Inner Mongolian railways. Deposit: Aduunchuluun deposit is located in 5km from Choibalsan city, a centre of the Dornod province, 650 km east of Ulaanbaatar and 100 km from the Mongolian-Chinese border. The total proven reserves and resources of brown coal are 241.3mt and 423.8mt respectively with gross calorific value of 3,203Kcal/kg, 9.9% ash content, 38.7% moisture, 1% sulphur and 45.8% volatile matter. The coal seam is 25.65m in thickness, consisting of two layers, and is positioned 40-42m below the surface. Financial highlights: The companys gross margin is very high at 33% and profitability is at 19%, even though the company sells their coal to local clients at $6.6 per tonne.
9/4/10
10/4/10
11/4/10
12/4/10
Shareholders

Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Dividend yield, % Sales growth, % 2007 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2008 9.8 1.5 0.47 2,495 1.73 16% 22% 15% nmf 0% 10% n/a 2009 2,881 409 130.00 3,150 1.94 32% 33% 14% 4.5 19% nmf
8%
Management team Two shareholders Free float
38%
54%
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Equity Research
1.10 Mongolia Development Resources
1,250 1.03 1,410 750 - 1,410 17 14 10,678 26%
Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA Dividend yield
0.61 35.24 60.25 -
Company brief: Mongolian Development Resources (MDR) was the first property and non-resource sector investment and project development company listed on the MSE, with a focus on high-growth investment opportunities in Mongolia. In December 2006, the company was initially established under the name Tuul Songino Usnii Nuuts (Tuul Songino Water Resources) dedicated to infrastructure development with a number of projects such as a Technical Water Facility, Drinking Water Facility and a Pumped Storage Power Station. In December 2007, Tuul Songino Water Resources conducted an IPO. Over 70% of the company stake is owned by international investors mainly from the USA, Europe and Asia. According to an extraordinary shareholders meeting held in December 2009, the company decided to transform into a diversified investment company, stopping three prior infrastructure projects due to the unviable nature of the three projects caused by the state-regulated electricity tariff and the fact that the TPPs use fresh water from aquifers at no cost. Market presence: MDR pursues attractive investment opportunities across various sectors (mainly finance, property, tourism, construction service and materials, consumer goods, agriculture, media, professional service, mining and metal and health care) in Mongolia and provides diversified exposure to the Mongolian economy for local and international investors. The company is to launch a non capital raising Global Depositary Receipt program, an advanced capital market instrument, with the Bank of New York Mellon, in order to attract new international investors. Financial highlights: Since IPO in December 2007, the main source of the companys revenues were from non-operational income of interest accruals on the companys cash placed in term deposits with local banks. Since a new management team was appointed, the companys main operation is transferred to investment operation. Therefore, from 2010, the main revenue is to be derived from investment yields they receive.
1.5 1.4 1.3 MNT'000 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10
Shareholders
Key financials, MNT million unless otherwise stated Mongolia Capital Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Sales growth, % 2007 26 -90 -6.57 27,798.06 0.79 -43% 90% -338% nmf 0% na 2008 487 35.47 28,341.76 0.60 -33% na na 7.12 2% na 2009 -145 -10.58 13,324.43 5.16 -43% na na nmf -1% na
7% 7% 12% 15% 25% 7% 27%
Firebird Global Mongol Discov. Fund Opportunity Fund East Investor Urban resources Other
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Equity Research
1.11 Mogoin Gol
10,349 8.53 11,376 1,970 - 11,367 9 7 1,021 9% 425%
Company brief: Mogoin Gol mine was established in 1970, and now supplies coal mainly to the centres of Khuvsgul and Zavkhan provinces and eastern soums of the Zavkhan province. In 1983, 1989 and 1995 production capacity was expanded with investments in new mining equipment and machines, increasing to 200ktpa of coal production. In 1995, the company was partially privatized, floating 49% of the company on the MSE. Then the state owned 51% was transferred to the provincial governments ownership. Currently, the company has 74 employees. In FY2009, Mogoin Gol JSC supplied 18K tonnes of coal to western provinces clients, Zavkhan (71.4%) and Khuvsgul aimags (28.6%), providing them with energy and heating. Deposit: Located in the Tsetserleg soum of Khuvsgul aimag, 880km northwest from Ulaanbaatar city and 209km west from the Khuvsgul province centre, Mogoin Gol coal deposit is strategically important for the northern region of Mongolia. The deposit covers an area of 89ha. Total reserve is a 13.6m tonnes of coal with a calorific value of 5,200-7,100kcal/kg, 7.3% ash and 0.9% moisture, out of which 3.6m is viable by open pit mining. Mogoin Gols average strip ratio is about 5-7. According to the management of the company, the remaining total reserve is 11.2m, out of which 3.1m was viable by open pit mining as of 2009. Financial highlights: In 2009, the company sold 18k tonnes of coal and worked with $280k of revenue, gross margin of 24% and net margin of 1%. However, the company is on track to surge production volume over 10 times through 2 separate coal selling pipelines: 1) future dealing pipeline relating to electricity consumption of Mongolian western regions, and 2) delivery of coal to the nearby Russia to cover for lost production caused by Raspadskaya accident. The opening ceremony of a 60MW thermal power plant (TPP), the first ever TPP in Mongolia with private investment, to be built on the basis of Mogoin Gol coal mine, was held on June 20, 2010. On Dec 29, 2009, Yuanda Group Ltd, a Mongolia-China joint venture, and New Asia Mining LLC signed an Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Management contract (EPCM) with the Mongolian Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy to construct the 60MW TPP. It is expected that the commercial operation of the TPP will start in early 2012, providing energy to two western provinces of Mongolia including Zavkhan and Gobi-Altai with an average power consumption of 15MW per year. According to the provincial government, once the TPP operation starts, Mogoin Gol JSC will supply 200k tonnes of coal annually to its prospective TPP, increasing current production volume 12 times. Key financials, MNT million unless otherwise stated
Key indicators P/BV P/E ROE Gross margin Net debt/Equity EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA EV/Resource Dividend yield
3.78 nmf 0% 24% 36% 3% nmf 0.59 -
12.0 10.0 8.0 MNT'000 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 10/4/10 11/4/10 12/4/10 1/4/10 2/4/10 3/4/10 4/4/10 5/4/10 6/4/10 7/4/10 8/4/10 9/4/10
Shareholders
Provincial government 51% 40% Mogoin Gol Energy/Transneft 9%
Free Float
Sales Net profit EPS, MNT Total Asset Current Asset/Non-Current Asset, % Net debt/Equity, % Gross margin, % Net margin, % EV/EBITDA, (x) ROE, % Sales growth, %
2007 na na na na na na na na na na na
2008 300 4 4.8 1,053 0.79 69% 24% 1% nmf 1% na
2009 351 4 4.8 3,172 0.67 36% 24% 1% nmf 0% 17%
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Disclaimers
2 Disclaimers
Analyst Certification
We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our respective compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Important Disclosures
Resource Investment Capital ("ResCap") is a boutique corporate finance advisor working with clients in connection with mergers and acquisitions, project development, public and private capital raisings and other strategic matters. ResCap is based in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia with a dedicated focus advising on Mongolian-related transactions.
Disclaimer The information provided in this report has been gathered from various sources deemed to be reliable and accurate by ResCap. However, ResCap does not guarantee the accuracy of the data and accepts no responsibility under any circumstance for any financial losses or other that may be incurred through the use of this information. Investment decisions should always be made based upon individual personal circumstances and requirements, and preferably with the advice of a qualified professional advisor.
2011 Resource Investment Capital. All rights reserved.
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References
3 References
IMF (Oct 2010); Joint Statement by Mongolias Minister of Finance, Governor of the Bank of Mongolia and IMF staff Mission, Press Release No. 10/387 IMF (Jun 2010); Mongolia: Joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis Under the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries, IMF Country Report No. 10/166 World Bank (Oct 2010); Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update CIA The World Factbook Bank of Mongolia, Monetary Policy Guide for 2011 Bank of Mongolia (Nov 2010); Monthly Statistical Bulletin Bank of Mongolia (Nov 2010); Managing Mongolias Growth: The Role of The Central Bank National Statistics Office, Monthly Bulletin (Dec2010) Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia (Dec 2010); Mongolias Investment Needs and Opportunities, Presentation Trade and Development Bank Information Memorandum (October 2010) Ministry of Road, Transportation, Construction and Urban Development of Mongolia (Oct 2010); Mongolia: Building a Sustainable Economic Growth through Downstream Industries and Rail Infrastructure, Presentation Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry of Mongolia; Agricultural Policy (2008-2010) Business Council of Mongolia (Nov 2010); Mongolia Mining Supply Chain, Presentation Energy Efficiency Study of Thermal Power Plant #4 (2006); Technical Report EBRD (Nov 2010); Mongolia Investment Summit in London, Presentation Engineering and Mining Journal (Aug 2010); Mongolian Mining, Global Business Reports Eurasia Capital Management (Oct 2010); Mongolia Development Resources: Property and Infrastructure Developer in Mongolia, Presentation Eurasia Mongolia Guide 2009 State Property Committee of Mongolia (Oct 2010); Privatizing Mongolias State Owned Assets and What This Means for Investors, Presentation Dewey & Le Boeuf (Nov 2010); Overview of the Legal Framework for Foreign Investment in Mining and Infrastructure in Mongolia, Presentation PricewaterhouseCoopers (2010); Mongolia Doing Business Guide 2010-2011 General taxation Law of Mongolia Corporate Income Tax Law of Mongolia Personal Income Tax Law of Mongolia Wikipedia (Mongolia History and Public Relations) Value Added Tax Law of Mongolia Business Council fo Mongolia (BCM Newswire)
Some information in this report may have been derived from the following sources: Business Council of Mongolia World Bank Bank of Mongolia Eurasia Capital Trade and Development Bank (esp. Information Memorandum Oct. 2010) International Monetary Fund Price Waterhouse Cooper (esp. Tax Law)
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Contacts
4 Contacts
ResCap 3rd Floor, Monnis Tower 15 Chinggis Avenue 1st Khoroo Sukhbaatar District 210648, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Tel/Fax: +976 70100095 www.resource-cap.com
David Hanbury david.hanbury@resource-cap.com +976 99998853 Enkhbayar Davaatseren enkhbayar@resource-cap.com +976 99007069 Uyanga Orgodol uyanga.orgodol@resource-cap.com +976 99094282
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