LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR

U.S. ENERGY MARKETS

Guy Caruso, Administrator

Energy Information Administration

National Council for Science and the Environment

6th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment
January 27, 2006
Washington, DC
EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection

• Major oil-producing countries pace investment more

consistent with higher oil price path
• Investment impediments more persistent, even after
several years of relatively high oil prices
• Cost of doing business increasing
• Not due to “Peak Oil” considerations, although we are
following this issue closely
 World Oil Price, 1980-2030
(2004 dollars per barrel)
80
History Projections

60

40

20
History
AEO2005
AEO2006
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

 U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030
(quadrillion Btu)
150
History Projections

125

100 Coal

75 Natural Gas

50

Petroleum
25

Nuclear
Renewables
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2006

 U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of
Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1)
1.2
History Projections

1.0

per dollar real GDP

0.8
per capita

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2006

 U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,
2004, 2025, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)
45
2004 History
40 AEO2005 - 2025
AEO2006 - 2025
35
AEO2006 - 2030
30

25

20

15

10

0
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
 U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector,
2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day)
30 27.9 27.6
26.1 Electric Power

25 23.0
22.2 Industrial
20.8
Residential and
20 Commercial

15

10 Transportation

0
2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2006
2010 2025 2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
 U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid and Diesel Vehicles,
2004, 2025, and 2030 (thousand units)

2,000
2004 History
AEO2005 - 2025
AEO2006 - 2025
1,500 AEO2006 - 2030

1,000

500

0
Hybrids* Diesel
*Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle.
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
 U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030
(2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
8
History Projections
7

3
History
AEO2005
2
AEO2006

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

 U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,
2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)
30.7
30
27.0 26.9
25.4
25 23.4
22.4 Electric Power

20

15 Industrial

10
Commercial

5
Residential

Transportation
0
2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2006
2010 2025 2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
 U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector,
2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (million short tons)
2,000
1,784

1,592
1,508
1,500

1,229 1,233

1,104

1,000 Electric Power

500

Coal to Liquids

0 Other

2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2006

2010 2025 2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
 U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector,
2004, 2010, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)
6,000

5,220 5,341
4,956 Transportation
5,000
Industrial
4,070 3,978
4,000
3,567

Commercial
3,000

2,000

1,000 Residential

0
2004 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2006
2010 2025 2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
 U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004, 2025, and 2030
(billion kilowatthours)
4,000
2004 History
57 - percent of total
AEO2005 - 2025
AEO2006 - 2025
3,000 50 53
AEO2006 - 2030

50
2,000

24
20 17
1,000 20 14 16 15 18
8 10 9
9
3 3 2 2
0
Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum
Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006
 U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030
(million metric tons)
AEO2006
8,115 in 2030
9,000 History Projections
History AEO2005
AEO2005 8,062 in 2025
8,000
AEO2006 AEO2005
7,000 6,627 in 2010
AEO2006
6,000 7,587 in 2025
AEO2006
5,000 6,365 in 2010
Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2025
(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)
4,000 1,000

AEO2006
800
503 in 2010
3,000 AEO2006
411 in 2025
AEO2006
351 in 2030
600

2,000 400
AEO2005
200 506 in 2010
AEO2005
397 in 2025
1,000 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates
that through 2030....

• U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average

annual rate of 1.1 percent
• The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to
increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent
• U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58
percent to 62 percent
• U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020
• Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on
unconventional domestic production, natural gas from
Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports
• Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 1.2 percent
 Periodic Reports
Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
Annual Energy Outlook 2006, December 2005, full report, February 2006
International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005

Examples of Special Analyses

Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,
March 2004
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003
“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005

www.eia.doe.gov
Guy Caruso
guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov
Backup Slides
 U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,
1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
140
History Projection
s
120
33%
100 Net Imports

Consumption 29%
80

60 Production

40

20

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2006

 U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,
1960-2030 (million barrels per day)
30
History Projections

25

20
62%
Consumption Net Imports

15 58%

10
Domestic Supply

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2006

 U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2004, 2025, and 2030
(miles per gallon)
35
2004 History
AEO2005 - 2025
30
AEO2006 - 2025
AEO2006 - 2030
25

20

15

10

0
New Car New Light-Duty Truck New Light-Duty Vehicle
Average
Note: Does not include impact of proposed increase in fuel economy standards based on vehicle footprint for
light trucks.

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

 U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,
1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
30 History Projections

25
Consumption Net Imports 21%

20 15%

Production

15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004, 2025,

and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)
7
2004 6.4
6 AEO2005
10 AEO2006 - 2025
5 4.4
AEO2006 - 2030 4.1
4
2.8
3 2.3
5 2
1.2 1.2
1 0.6

0
Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

 Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply,
2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
28

26 Growth in Alaskan Production

24
Growth in LNG Imports

22
Growth in
Non-Associated Unconventional
20

18 Base Production (all sources)

16
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Annual Energy Outlook 2006
 U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030
(2004 dollars per ton)

History Projections
50

History
40 AEO2005
AEO2006

30

20

10

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

 U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030
(2004 cents per kilowatthour)

History Projections
10

6 History
AEO2005
AEO2006
4

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

 U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including
Combined Heat and Power, 2004-2030 (gigawatts)
1,400

New Nuclear
1,200
New Renewable New Coal Needed
Capacity
1,000
New Natural Gas
Existing Other Fossil Steam
800
Existing Combustion Turbine

600
Existing Coal Steam

400

Existing Combined-Cycle
200
Existing Renewable
Existing Nuclear Existing Pumped Storage
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates
that through 2030....

• U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average

annual rate of 1.1 percent
• The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to
increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent
• U.S. oil import reliance is projected to grow from 58
percent to 62 percent
• U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020
• Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on
unconventional domestic production, natural gas from
Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports
• Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 1.2 percent