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MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Andrei Rogers Richard Raquillet Luis J. Castro

December 1977

Research Memoranda are interim reports on research being conducted Institute for ~ p p l i e d Systems Analysis, and as such by the ~nternational receive only limited scientific review. Views or opinions contained herein do not necessarily. represent those of the Institute or o f the National Member Organizations supporting the Institute.

Preface I n t e r e s t i n human s e t t l e m e n t systems and p o l i c i e s h a s been a c r i t i c a l p a r t o f u r b a n - r e l a t e d work a t IIASA s i n c e i t s inception. Recently t h i s i n t e r e s t has given r i s e t o a concentrated r e s e a r c h e f f o r t f o c u s i n g on m i g r a t i o n dynamics and s e t t l e m e n t patterns. Four s u b - t a s k s form t h e c o r e of t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t :
I.
11.

t h e s t u d y of s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n dynamics; t h e d e f i n i t i o n and e l a b o r a t i o n of a new r e s e a r c h a r e a c a l l e d demometrics and i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o m i g r a t i o n a n a l y s i s and s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r e casting; t h e a n a l y s i s and d e s i g n o f m i g r a t i o n and s e t t l e ment p o l i c y ;

111.

IV.

a comparative s t u d y of n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n and s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s and p o l i c i e s .

T h i s p a p e r , t h e t h i r t e e n t h i n t h e dynamics s e r i e s , i s a summary r e v i e w of 1IASA1s work on model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s . I t combines t h e major f i n d i n g s of two e a r l i e r p u b l i c a t i o n s (RM-75-57 and RR-76-09) w i t h more r e c e n t , a s y e t , u n p u b l i s h e d work. R e l a t e d p a p e r s i n t h e dynamics s e r i e s , and o t h e r p u b l i c a t i o i l s o f t h e m i g r a t i o n and sett1emer.t s t u d y , a r e l i s t e d on t h e back page of t h i s r e p o r t .

Andrei Rogers Chairman Human S e t t l e m e n t s and S e r v i c e s Area. November 1977

Abstract T h i s p a p e r c o n s i d e r s and c o n t r a s t s two a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s f o r c a p t u r i n g t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s e x h i b i t e d by a g e p a t t e r n s i n observed migration r a t e s . The m o r t a l i t y a p p r o a c h i s c o n s i d e r e d f i r s t and it i s shown how s u c h a n a p p r o a c h may b e used t o i n f e r m i g r a t i o n f l o w s from two c o n s e c u t i v e p l a c e - o f - r e s i d e n c e - b y - p l a c e o f - b i r t h census age d i s t r i b u t i o n s . The f e r t i l i t y a p p r o a c h i s c o n s i d e r e d n e x t , and t e c h n i q u e s f o r g r a d u a t i n g m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e s a r e described. The a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f b o t h approaches a r e then b r i e f l y assessed.

The a u t h o r s g r a t e f u l l y acknowledge t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a l a s s i s t a n c e of Frans Willekens. In carrying out t h i s research w e a l s o have b e n e f i t e d from d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h M i c h a e l S t o t o , Ansley C o a l e , and F r a n s W i l l e k e n s . T h i s s t u d y c o u l d n o t have been c a r r i e d o u t w i t h o u t t h e g e n e r o u s p r o v i s i o n o f d e t a i l e d Swedish p o p u l a t i o n d a t a by Arne A r v i d s s o n o f t h e Swedish C e n t r a l Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s . Our t h a n k s a l . s o go t o L a r r y Long o f t h e U.S. Census Bureau, and Kazimierz Dziewonski and P i o t r K o r c e l l i o f t h e G e o g r a p h i c a l I n s t i t u t e o f t h e P o l i s h Academy o f S c i e n c e s f o r p r o v i d i n g u s w i t h U.S. and P o l i s h m i g r a t i o n d a t a , r e s p e c t i v e l y .

Model Miqration Schedules and their Applications Table of Contents Page


1. 2.

Introduction Regularities in Observed Migration Schedules 2.1 Migration Profiles 2.2 Migration Levels Model Migration Schedules: The Mortality Approach 3.1 The Multiregional Life Table 3.2 Summarizing the Regularities: Regression 3.3 Families of Model Migration Schedules 3.4 Application: Inference Model Migration Schedules: The Fertility Approach 4.1 The Fundamental Components of Migration Schedules 4.2 Summarizing the Regularities: Curve-fitting 4.3 Families of Model Migration Schedules 4.4 Application: Graduation and Interpolation Conclusion References

3.

4.

5.

Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s and t h e i r A p p l i c a t i o n s

INTRODUCTION

The e v o l u t i o n o f a human p o p u l a t i o n u n d i s t u r b e d by emigrat i o n o r i m m i g r a t i o n i s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s i t h a s been s u b j e c t t o . I f such a "closed" population s y s t e m i s d i s a g g r e g a t e d by r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e , t h e n i t s s p a t i a l e v o l u t i o n i s l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g s c h e d u l e s o f i n t e r n a l migration. The a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y , m o r t a l i t y , and m i g r a t i o n

remarkably p e r s i s t e n t r e g u l a r i t i e s . The a g e p r o f i l e s o f t h e s e s c h e d u l e s s e e m t o be r e p e a t e d , w i t h o n l y minor d i f f e r e n c e s , i n v i r t u a l l y a l l d e v e l o p e d and d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s o f t h e g l o b e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , demographers h a v e found it p o s s i b l e t o summarize and c o d i f y s u c h r e g u l a r i t i e s by means o f h y p o t h e t i c a l s c h e d u l e s c a l l e d mode Z s c h e d u l e s .
s c h e d u l e s o f most human m u l t i r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n s e x h i b i t Model s c h e d u l e s have two i m p o r t a n t a p p l i c a t i o n s : 1) they

may b e u s e d t o i n f e r ( o r "smooth") e m p i r i c a l s c h e d u l e s o f popul a t i o n s f o r which t h e r e q u i s i t e d a t a a r e l a c k i n g ( o r i n a c c u r a t e ) , and 2 ) t h e y c a n b e a p p l i e d i n a n a l y t i c a l m a t h e m a t i c a l examinat i o n s o f p o p u l a t i o n dynamics. The development o f model f e r t i l i t y and model m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s and t h e i r u s e i n s t u d i e s of t h e e v o l u t i o n o f human p o p u l a t i o n s have r e c e i v e d c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n ( A r r i a g a , 1968; C o a l e and Demeny,
Rele,

1966; C o a l e , 1972; C o a l e and T r u s s e l l , 1974;

1 9 6 7 ) ; however, t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s

and t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n t o s t u d i e s o f t h e s p a t i a l e v o l u t i o n o f human p o p u l a t i o n s d i s a g g r e g a t e d by r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e , have n o t . T h i s p a p e r a d d r e s s e s t h e l a t t e r problem and shows how t e c h n i q u e s t h a t have been s u c c e s s f u l l y a p p l i e d t o t r e a t t h e f o r m e r problem can r e a d i l y be extended t o d e a l w i t h t h e l a t t e r .
W e begin,

in

S e c t i o n 2 , by c o n s i d e r i n g t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s e x h i b i t e d by o b s e r v e d migration schedules.
W e t h e n follow t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n of observed

r e g u l a r i t i e s w i t h a n e x a m i n a t i o n , i n S e c t i o r s 3 and 4 , r e s p e c t i v e l y , o f two a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s f o r summarizing s u c h r e g u l a r i t i e s : t h e m o r t a l i t y a p p r o a c h and t h e f e r t i l i t y a p p r o a c h . research. Section 5 o f f e r s concluding remarks and p o i n t s t o f u t u r e d i r e c t i o n s f o r

2.

REGULARITIES I N OBSERVED MIGRATION SCHEDULES Demographers have l o n g r e c o g n i z e d t h a t p e r s i s t i n g r e g u l a r i -

t i e s appear i n empirical age-specific migration schedules (e.g.,


Lowry, 1966; Long, 1 9 7 3 ) . M i g r a t i o n viewed a s a n e v e n t , i s h i g h l y Levels of migration s e l e c t i v e w i t h r e g a r d t o a g e , w i t h young a d u l t s g e n e r a l l y b e i n g t h e most m o b i l e group i n any p o p u l a t i o n . a r e a l s o h i g h among c h i l d r e n , v a r y i n g from a peak d u r i n g t h e o f i r s t y e a r o f a g e ( t h e i n i t i a l p e a k ) t o a Z w p o i n t around a g e 16. The m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e t h e n t u r n s s h a r p l y upward u n t i l

it r e a c h e s a second peak ( t h e high peak) i n t h e neighborhood o f


2 2 y e a r s , a f t e r which it d e c l i n e s r e g u l a r l y w i t h a g e , e x c e p t f o r a s l i g h t hump ( t h e r e t i r e m e n t p e a k ) around a g e s 62 t h r o u g h 65. The r e g u l a r i t i e s i n o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s a r e n o t surprising: Young a d u l t s e x h i b i t t h e h i g h e s t m i g r a t i o n t h e i r community.
.

r a t e s b e c a u s e t h e y a r e l e s s c o n s t r a i n e d by t i e s t o Their children generally a r e not i n s c h o o l , t h e y a r e more l i k e l y t o b e r e n t e r s r a t h e r t h a n home owners, and j o b s e n i o r i t y i s n o t y e t a n important consideration. S i n c e c h i l d r e n move o n l y C o n s e q u e n t l y , bea s members o f a f a m i l y , t h e i r m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n m i r r o r s t h a t of t h e i r p a r e n t s . c a u s e younger c h i l d r e n g e n e r a l l y have younyer p a r e n t s , t h e geographical m o b i l i t y of i n f a n t s i s h i g h e r t h a n t h a t of a d o l e s c e n t s . a f t e r retirement.. F i n a l l y , t h e s m a l l hump i n t h e (Rogers, 1975, pp. 146-147) a g e p r o f i l e between a g e s 62 t o 65 d e s c r i b e s m i g r a t i o n

2.1

Miaration P r o f i l e s The s h a p e , o r p r o f i l e , of a n a g e - s p e c i f i c s c h e d u l e o f m i This is because t h e r e i s

g r a t i o n r a t e s ' i s a f e a t u r e t h a t may b e u s e f u l l y s t u d i e d i n d e pendently of i t s i n t e n s i t y , o r l e v e l . considerable empirical evidence t h a t although t h e latter tends t o v a r y s i g n i f i c a n t l y from p l a c e t o p l a c e , t h e f o r m e r i s remarkably s i m i l a r i n various l o c a l i t i e s . t h e U.S.A. and Sweden, r e s p e c t i v e l y . I l l u s t r a t i o n s of t h i s property a p p e a r i n F i g u r e s 1A and 1B,, which s e t o u t m i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o r

F i g u r e s 1A and 1B r e p e a t t h e f u n d a m e n t a l a g e p a t t e r n of m i g r a t i o n d e s c r i b e d above, with peaks occuring a t infancy, d u r i n g t h e young a d u l t a g e s a n d , i n o n e i n s t a n c e , a t r e t i r e m e n t . Vari a t i o n s i n t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e h i g h peak and i n t h e l e v e l s o f migaation a t r e t i r e m e n t ages i n d i c a t e t h a t a s , i n t h e c a s e of m o r t a l i t y , a g e p r o f i l e s o f m i g r a t i o n may be u s e f u l l y d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o f a m i l i e s t h a t a r e d i s t i n g u i s h e d by t h e l o c a t i o n and r e l a t i v e h e i g h t o f t h e i r peaks. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , s u c h a d i s a g g r e g a t i o n may b e c a r r i e d o u t , i n t h e manner o f f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e s , by means of t h e mean a g e o f t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e M(x) ,

which r e a d i l y may be u s e d t o c l a s s i f y m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s i n t o "young" and " o l d " c a t e g o r i e s , p e r h a p s w i t h s u i t a b l e g r a d a t i o n s i n between. F i g u r e 1A i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e a g e p r o f i l e o f m i g r a t i o n t e n d s t o b e r e m a r k a b l y s i m i l a r f o r r e s i d e n t i a l . m o v e r s , i n t r a - and i n t e r - c o u n t y m i g r a n t s , and m i g r a n t s between s t a t e s . t e r r i t o r i a l units. F i g u r e 1B shows t h a t i m p o r t a n t a g e - s p e c i f i c v a r i a t i o n s e x i s t between t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o f males a n d f e m a l e s . and i n t h e Swedish c a s e i t ' i s a l s o l o w e r in h e i g h t . The h i g h peak f o r m a l e s f o l l o w s t h a t o f t h e f e m a l e s c h e d u l e by a few y e a r s , What d o e s vary i s t h e l e v e l of migration, t h e l e v e l being higher f o r smaller

AGE

Residential mobility rate (including movers from abroad)

............. Within - county rate


,,

Between - county rate

. . . . . . Between - state rate


Figure l.A: Age-Specific Annual Migration Rates of the Total United States Population by Category of Move: Average of 1966-1971. Source: Long (1973), p. 38.

AGE

Figure l.B: Age-Specific Annual Migration Rates of the Swedish Population by Sex: Average of 1968-1973. Source: Internal Migration in Sweden 1968-1973, 1974, p. 10.

2.2

Migration Levels The l e v e l o f m i g r a t i o n , l i k e t h a t o f m o r t a Z i t y , c a n b e

measured i n t e r m s o f a n e x p e c t e d d u r a t i o n t i m e , particular location.

f o r example,

t h e f r a c t i o n o f a l i f e t i m e t h a t i s expected t o be l i v e d a t a However, l i k e f e r t i z i t y , m i g r a t i o n i s a p e r person. p o t e n t i a l l y r e p e t i t i v e e v e n t , and i t s l e v e l t h e r e f o r e c a n b e e x p r e s s e d i n t e r m s o f a n e x p e c t e d number o f moves Summarizing o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e f o r m e r p e r s p e c t i v e l e a d s t o t h e development o f a r e g r e s s i o n a p p r o a c h s i m i l a r t o t h e o n e used by C o a l e and Demeny (1966) t o summarize r e g u l a r i t i e s i n m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s ; t h e l a t t e r p e r s p e c t i v e s u g g e s t s a n a l t e r n a t i v e procedure--one schedules. The most common demographic measure o f l e v e l i s t h e . n o t i o n of expectancy. Demographers o f t e n r e f e r t o l i f e e x p e c t a n c i e s , They h a v e c a l c u l a t e d f o r example, when s p e a k i n g a b o u t m o r t a l i t y , and t o r e p r o d u c t i o n e x p e c , t a n c i e s when d i s c u s s i n g f e r t i l i t y . f o r i n s t a n c e t h a t 73 i s t h e a v e r a g e number o f y e a r s a f e m a l e c o u l d e x p e c t t o l i v e u n d e r t h e m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e o f t h e U.S. i n 1958, and 1.71 i s t h e a v e r a g e number o f baby g i r l s s h e c o u l d expect t o b e a r d u r i n g h e r l i f e t i m e under t h e t h e n p r e v a i l i n g f e r t i l i t y schedule. reproduction rate, The f o r m e r measure i s known a s t h e e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t b i r t h , e ( 0 ) ; t h e l a t t e r i n d e x
NRR. GRR.

analogous t o

t h a t used by C o a l e and T r u s s e l l (1974) t o summarize f e r t i l i t y

is called the net

A r e l a t e d index i s t h e qross reproduction r a t e ,

This

measure t o t a l l y i g n o r e s t h e e f f e c t s o f m o r t a l i t y o n r e p r o d u c t i o n and may b e viewed a s t h e n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e t h a t would a r i s e among a c o h o r t i f a l l o f them s u r v i v e d t o t h e end o f t h e i r c h i l d bearing ages. For t h i s r e a s o n , t h e GRR o f a p o p u l a t i o n i s , o f c o u r s e , a l w a y s l a r g e r t h a n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g NRR. E x p e c t a n c i e s a l s o have been u s e d i n m i g r a t i o n s t u d i e s by Wilber,
( 1 963) and Long (19 7 3 ) .

However, t h e i r d e f i n i t i o n s a r e

n o n s p a t i a l inasmuch a s t h e y view m i g r a t i o n a s a n e v e n t i n a

n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n a s a flow between r e g i o n a l populations. The s t u d y of spatial p o p u l a t i o n dynamics can b e conT h i s p e r m i t s one t o d e f i n e s p a t i a l e x p e c t a m i e s s i d e r a b l y e n r i c h e d by e x p l i c i t l y i d e n t i f y i n g t h e locations of e v e n t s and f l o w s . such a s t h e expectation of l i f e a t b i r t h o r t h e n e t reproduction

e ( 0 ) and i iNRR, s a y ) , and t h e e x p e c t e d a l l o c a t i o n of t h i s l i f e t i m e o r r a t e among t h e v a r i o u s c o n s t i t u e n t r e g i o n s o f a m u l t i r e g i o n a l populat i o n s y s t e m ( . e . ( 0 ) and iNRR.. , r e s p e c t i v e l y , j = 1 , 2 , . ,m) 1 3 I For example, i t h a s been e s t i m a t e d (Rogers, 1975) t h a t t h e exp e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h of a C a l i f o r n i a - b o r n woman exposed t o t h e 1958 U.S. California. s c h e d u l e s of m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n would be 73.86 y e a r s , o u t o f which 24.90 y e a r s would b e l i v e d o u t s i d e of The n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e of s u c h a woman, on 1958 f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , would be 1.69, w i t h 0.50 of t h a t t o t a l b e i n g born o u t s i d e o f C a l i f o r n i a . Adopting t h e second p e r s p e c t i v e , Wilber d e v e l o p e d a s e t of m i g r a t i o n e x p e c t a n c i e s d e s c r i b i n g t h e a v e r a g e number of moves e x p e r i e n c e d by an i n d i v i d u a l d u r i n g h i s r e m a i n i n g l i f e t i m e . The a p p l i c a t i o n o f h i s f o r m u l a f o r c a l c u l a t i n g m i g r a t i o n e x p e c t a n c i e s f o r i f i d i v i d u a l s j u s t born p r o d u c e s t h e d i r e c t a n a l o g of t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l formula f o r t h e n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e . f o r m u l a , w i t h x s e t e q u a l t o z e r o , may b e e x p r e s s e d a s The

r a t e of i n d i v i d u a l s born i n r e g i o n i ( r e s p e c t i v e l y ,

..

where L ( x ) i s t h e s t a t i o n a r y l i f e t a b l e p o p u l a t i o n aged x t o x

5 y e a r s a t l a s t b i r t h d a y , M(x) i s t h e a n n u a l r a t e o f m i g r a t i o n The c o r r e s p o n d i n g f o r m u l a f o r t h e n e t

among i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h a t a g e g r o u p , and z i s t h e s t a r t i n g a g e o f t h e l a s t i n t e r v a l of l i f e . reproduction r a t e i s

where F ( x ) i s t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e . between ( 1 ) and ( 2 ) s u g g e s t s t h e d e s i g n a t i o n o f

The s i m i l a r i t y ( 1 ) a s t h e net

m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e , a q u a n t i t y we s h a l l d e n o t e by NMR.
NRR d e n o t e s t h e a v e r a g e number of b a b i e s p e r p e r s o n ,

Thus

and NMR

d e n o t e s t h e a v e r a g e number of moves p e r p e r s o n , b o t h t a k e n o v e r t h a t person's e n t i r e lifetime. an i n d i v i d u a l ' s l i f e t i m e . Observe t h a t b o t h measures dep i c t t h e a v e r a g e number o f o c c u r r e n c e s o f a r e c u r r e n t e v e n t o v e r Only t h e l a t t e r , however, i s i n f l u e n c e d by t h e s p a t i a l e x t e n t of t h e t e r r i t o r i a l u n i t . E a r l i e r we proposed a s p a t i a l m i g r a t i o n e x p e c t a n c y based on d u r a t i o n t i m e s , s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e e x p e c t e d number of y e a r s l i v e d i n r e g i o n j by i n d i v i d u a l s born i n r e g i o n i. The c o r r e spondence between t h e n e t m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n and n e t ' r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s suggests an a l t e r n a t i v e d e f i n i t i o n of s p a t i a l migration expectancy--one event. r e f l e c t i n g a view o f m i g r a t i o n a s a r e c u r r e n t J u s t a s NRR was a p p o r t i o n e d among t h e c o n s t i t u e n t r e Thus t h e f o r -

g i o n s of a m u l t i r e g i o n a l system, s o t o o can NMR be s i m i l a r l y d i s a g g r e g a t e d by p l a c e of b i r t h and r e s i d e n c e . mula f o r t h e s p a t i a l n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e :

NRR

suggests t h e following d e f i n i t i o n f o r t h e s p a t i a l n e t migrapro-

duction rate:
NMR
=

x=o

i L j (x)M. ( x )

where

L . ( x ) d e n o t e s t h e s t a t i o n a r y l i f e t a b l e p o p u l a t i o n of i 3 r e g i o n j aged x t o x + 5 y e a r s a t l a s t b i r t h d a y and born i n re-

g i o n i , and M . ( x ) i s t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c o u t m i g r a t i o n r a t e i n r e 3 g i o n j. describes the a v e r a g e l i f e t i m e number o f moves made o u t of r e g i o n j by an i n 'j

The s p a t i a l n e t m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e iNMP

The summation of iNMR. o v e r a l l re3 g i o n s of d e s t i n a t i o n ( j # i ) g i v e s NMR, t h e n e t m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n i r a t e of i n d i v i d u a l s born i n r e g i o n i , i . e . , t h e a v e r a g e number o f moves an i - b o r n p e r s o n i s e x p e c t e d t o make d u r i n g h i s ( o r h e r ) lifetime.

d i v i d u a l born i n r e g i o n i .

A s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e c o n c e p t of t h e n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e
(NRR) i n f e r t i l i t y a n a l y s i s i s t h e n o t i o n of t h e g r o s s r e p r o -

duction r a t e .
z GRR = 5

x= 0

F (x)

The n o t i o n o f a g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e

GMR = 5

M(x)

x=o
has a s i m i l a r l y u s e f u l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i n migration a n a l y s i s .
I t measures t h e i n t e n s i t y of m i g r a t i o n between two r e g i o n s a t

a particular point i n t i m e . The measure, t h e r e f o r e , h a s b a s i c a l l y a c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r , i n c o n t r a s t t o t h e NMR which measures t h e i n t e n s i t y o f m i g r a t i o n o v e r a l i f e t i m e . Consequently, t h e g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e o f t e n may p r o v e t o b e a more usef u l measure t h a n t h e n e t r a t e i n t h a t it i s a " p u r e r " i n d i c a t o r o f m i g r a t i o n , i n t h e same s e n s e a s t h e g r o s s r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e . However, t h e g r o s s r a t e ineasures t h e i n t e n s i t y of m i g r a t i o n a t a g i v e n moment and n o t o v e r a l i f e t i m e . Hence, i n i n s t a n c e s where r e t u r n m i g r a t i o n i s a n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r , t h e g r o s s r a t e and t h e n e t r a t e may g i v e d i f f e r i n g i n d i c a t i o n s of g e o g r a p h i c a l m o b i l i t y . T a b l e 1 p r e s e n t s n e t and g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s f o r t h e t o t a l U.S. p o p u l a t i o n i n 1958, d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o f o u r r e g i o n s . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g mean a g e s of m i g r a t i o n a r e s e t o u t i n p a r e n t h e s e s . F i g u r e 2 p l o t s t h e g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e a g a i n s t t h e mean a g e f o r t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s o f t h e f o u r - r e g i o n U.S. t i o n s y s t e m i n 1958 and i n 1968, r e s p e c t i v e l y . of a d i v i s i o n i n t o f o u r groups: h i g h GMR h i g h GMR populaW e f i n d evidence

- high

low

n; n;

T a b l e 1.

Net and g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s and mean a g e s o f m i g r a t i o n : t o t a l U n i t e d S t a t e d p o p u l a t i o n , 1958.

A.

Net m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s :

.NMR
1

j
Region of R e s i d e n c e Total 4 0.0331 0.5408

Region o f Birth

1
0.4122

2 0.0366

3 0.0589

1.

Northeast

2.

North C e n t r a l

0.0204

0.4923

0.0604

0.0600

0.6331

3.

South

0.0300

0.0629

0.4397

0.0479

0.5805

4.

West

0.0203

0.0540

0.0602

0.4181

0.5526

B.

G r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s and mean a g e s of m i g r a t i o n :

GMRij and n =J .
Total 4

Region of Origin

Region of D e s t i n a t i o n

1.
2.

Northeast

0.1202 (26.99)

0.3168 (33.46) 0.3201 (32.16)

0.1532 (29.43) 0.3289 (30.54) 0.2299 (27.27)

0.5902

North C e n t r a l

0.0891 (28.15) 0.1504 (28.59) 0.0887 (27.73)

0.2511 (27.77) 0.2167 (30.03)

0.7381

3.

South

0.2819 (27.61)

0.6314

4.

West

0.5573 J

W-S

NC-S
0

I I YOUNG 1 OLD
0.30W

NC-W

I w-s 1

t-

d
t-

0.25--

I S-NC

0
c)

S-NC

; lI s-w
I
I

.
I

W-NC

W-NC

a
a a

0.20----- -s-w----&

------------I
NE-W
ONE-w

d (3
V)

z
o a
c3

01.5

r/)

S-NEI I NE - NC 0 I NE-NC

SE N .

HIGH LOW

0.1025

W NE ,I eNC-NE I W N ;E NC-NE
I I

TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 1958 TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 1968

26

27

28

2 9

30

3 1

32

33

3 MEAN AGE 4

;------s

Figure 2: Relatio~, hel\reen ol~served gloss migaprotlnclior~talc. and mean agc of migrrtion ect~ed~tle: U.S. populations. 1958 and 1968. :old

low GMR low GMR

- high

n;
n.

low

M i g r a t i o n f l o w s from t h e N o r t h C e n t r a l Region t o t h e S o u t h , f o r example, e x h i b i t a n " o l d " p ~ o f i l e and a mean a g e o f a b o u t 3 2 . 5 years. The r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n f l o w s , o n t h e o t h e r hand, t a k e on T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t it may b e u s e f u l t o t h e s h a p e o f a "young" p r o f i l e and show a mean a g e t h a t i s a b o u t f i v e y e a r s younger. d e v e l o p a family o f b a s i c model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s s o t h a t t h e v a r i o u s a g e p r o f i l e s e x h i b i t e d by e m p i r i c a l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s c a n b e more a c c u r a t e l y c a p t u r e d and summarized.

3.

MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULES:

THE MORTALITY APPROACH

R e g u l a r i t i e s i n t h e age p a t t e r n s of observed death r a t e s

-.

have f a s c i n a t e d demographers a l m o s t s i n c e p u b l i s h e d r e c o r d s of The s e a r c h ' f o r u n i m o r t a l i t y f i r s t became g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e . v e r s a l " l a w s o f m o r t a l i t y " gave b i r t h t'o t h e w e l l known. Gompertzc u r v e g r a d u a t i o n o f t h e m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e a n d , more r e c e n t l y , t o two s e t s o f "model" l i f e t a b l e s p u b l i s h e d by t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s ( U n i t e d N a t i o n s , 1955 and 1 9 6 7 ) . The model l i f e t a b l e , o r m o r t a l i t y , a p p r o a c h f o r c a p t u r i n g r e g u l a r i t i e s i n o b s e r v e d r a t e s may b e a p p l i e d i n t h e s t u d y of migration r e g u l a r i t i e s . Such a n a p p l i c a t i o n , however, f i r s t l i f e table. r e q u i r e s t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e muZtiregionaZ 3.1 The M u l t i r e g i o n a l L i f e T a b l e C o n v e n t i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s d e s c r i b e t h e e v o l u t i o n o 5 . a hypot h e t i c a l c o h o r t o f b a b i e s b o r n a t a g i v e n moment and exposed t o a n unchanging a g e - s p e c i f i c s c h e d u l e o f m o r t a l i t y . For t h i s coh o r t o f b a b i e s , t h e y exhibit's number o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f d y i n g and s u r v i v i n g and d e v e l o p t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t v a r i o u s ages. L i f e t a b l e c a l c u l a t i o n s n o r m a l l y a r e i n i t i a t e d by e s t i m a t i n g a set of age-specific p r o b a b i l i t i e s of dying w i t h i n each i n t e r v a l o f a g e , q ( x ) s a y , from o b s e r v e d d a t a on a g e - s p e c i f i c d e a t h r a t e s , M(x) s a y . The c o n v e n t i o n a l c a l c u l a t i o n t h a t i s made f o r a n a g e i n t e r v a l f i v e y e a r s wide i s ( R o g e r s , 1975, p.12)

or alternativel.~, p(x) = 1

q(x) = [I

] 1

5 M(x)]

(5)

where p ( x ) i s t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u r v i v i n g from

e x a c t age x t o exact age x + 5.

The l a t t e r p r o b a b i l i t i e s , i n

t u r n , may b e used t o d e f i n e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s of s u r v i v a l from one age group t o t h e n e x t (Rogers, 1975, pp.16 and 85) :

To a v o i d any p o s s i b l e c o n f u s i o n between t h e two s e t s of p r o b a b i l i t i e s , we s h a l l h e r e a f t e r , r e f e r t o s ( x ) a s a s u r v i v o r s h i p prop o r t i o n , i . e . , t h e p r o p o r t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l s s u r v i v i n g from age


group x t o x + 5 t o age g r o u p x + 5 ' t o x + 10.

One o f t h e most u s e f u l s t a t i s t i c s p r o v i d e d by a l i f e t a b l e
i s t h e a v e r a g e e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t a g e x , e ( x ) s a y , c a l c u l a t e d

by s p p l y i n g t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s of s u r v i v a l p ( x ) t o a h y p o t h e t i c a l c o h o r t of b a b i e s and t h e n o b s e r v i n g t h e i r a v e r a g e l e n g t h o f l i f e beyond e a c h age. E x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e a t b i r t h [ e ( 0 ) 1 a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l a s i n d i c a t o r s of t h e l e v e l of m o r t a l i t y i n v a r i o u s r e g i o n s and c o u n t r i e s o f t h e world. C o n v e n t i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s d e a l w i t h m o r t a l i t y , f o c u s on a s i n g l e r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n , and i g n o r e t h e e f f e c t s o f m i g r a t i o n . To i n c o r p o r a t e t h e l a t t e r , and a t t h e same t i m e t o e x t e n d t h e l i f e t a b l e c o n c e p t t o a s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n comprised o f s e v e r a l r e g i o n s , r e q u i r e s t h e n o t i o n of a m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e (Rogers, 1 9 7 3 ) . Such l i f e t a b l e s d e s c r i b e t h e e v o l u t i o n o f sevage-specific schedule e r a l r e g i o n a l c o h o r t s o f b a b i e s , a l l born a t a g i v e n moment and exposed t o a n unchanging muZtiregionaZ o f m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n . For e a c h r e g i o n a l b i r t h c o h o r t ,

t h e y p r o v i d e v a r i o u s p r o b a b i l i t i e s of d y i n g , s u r v i v i n g , and migrating, while simultaneously deriving regional expectations of l i f e a t v a r i o u s ages. These e x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e a r e d i s a g g r e g a t e d b o t h by p l a c e of b i r t h and by p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e ; t h e y

w i l l b e d e n o t e d by e . ( x ) , where i i s t h e r e g i o n o f b i r t h and i 1 j i s t h e r e g i o n of r e s i d e n c e .
M u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e c a l c u l a t i o n s are g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e d

by t h e a d o p t i o n of m a t r i x a l g e b r a .

T h i s l e a d s t o a compact n o t a -

t i o n and an e f f i c i e n t c o m p u t a t i o n a l p r o c e d u r e ; it a l s o v e r y c l e a r l y d e m o n s t r a t e s a s i m p l e c o r r e s p o n d e n c e between t h e s i n g l e r e g i o n and t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l formulas. For example, e q u a t i o n s 5 and 6 may


counterpart.^

be shown t o have t h e f o l l o w i n g n u l t i r e g i o n a l and Ledent, 1976; Rogers, 1 9 7 5 , ~ . 8 5 ) :

(Rogers

and

The d i a g o n a l e l e m e n t s o f P ( x ) and S ( x ) a r e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f s u r v i v a 1 and s u r v i v o r s h i p p r o p o r t i o n s , r e s p e c t i v e l y ; t h e o f f - d i a g o n a l e l e m e n t s w i l l be c a l l e d p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m i g r a t i n g and m i g r a t i o n proportions, respectively. E x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e i n t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e r e f l e c t t h e i n f l u e n c e s of m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n . Thus t h e y may b e used a s i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s of i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n , i n a d d i t i o n t o c a r r y i n g o u t t h e i r t r a d i t i o n a l f u n c t i o n a s i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s of mortality.
For example, c o n s i d e r t h e r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s of
A baby born i n t h e West, and exposed

l i f e a t b i r t h t h a t a r e s e t o u t i n T a b l e 2 f o r t h e U.S. ' p o p u l a t i o n w i t h b o t h s e x e s combined. t o t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l s c h e d u l e of m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n t h a t p r e v a i l e d i n 1955, c o u l d e x p e c t t o l i v e an a v e r a g e of 69.94 y e a r s , o u t of which t o t a l an a v e r a g e of 8.95 y e a r s would be l i v e d i n t h e South. Taking t h e l a t t e r a s a f r a c t i o n of t h e f o r m e r , w e have i n 0.1279 a u s e f u l i n d i c a t o r of t h e ( l i f e t i m e ) m i g r a t i o n l e v e l from t h e West t o t h e South t h a t i s i m p l i e d by t h e 1958 multiregional schedule. (Compare t h e s e m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s w i t h t h o s e

set o u t e a r l i e r i n Table 1 ) .

T a b l e 2.

E x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e a t b i r t h and m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s by r e g i o n of r e s i d e n c e and r e g i o n of b i r t h : t o t a l U n i t e d S t a t e s p o p u l a t i o n , 1958.

Region of Birth
1. 1

Region of Residence 2 4.49 (0.0643) 48.45 (0.6889) 7.52 (0.1091) 6.60 (0.0944) 3 8.88 (0.1273) 9.10 (0.1294) 49.21 (0.7134) 8.95 (0.1279) 4 5.50 (0.0788) 9.60 (0.1365) 7.67 (0.1111) 51.22 (0.7322)

Total

69.76 (1.00) 70.32 (1.00) 68.98 (1.00) 69.94 (1.00) .

Northeast North C e n t r a l South West

50.90 (0.7295) 3.18 (0.0452) 4.58 (0.0664) 3.18 (0.0454)

2. 3. 4.

I
(x) , i n empirical Pij m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s m i r r o r t h e fundamental r e g u l a r i t i e s Age-specific p r o b a b i l i t i e s of migrating, e x h i b i t e d by o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n r a t e s . Some of t h e s e r e g u l a r i t i e s
(We focus

a r e i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e s 3 , 4 , and 5, r e s p e c t i v e l y .

o n l y on t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n b u t c o n s i d e r d a t a f o r a l l f o u r Census 1958 and 1968.) F i g u r e 3 Regions and f o r two p o i n t s i n t i m e : shows t h a t a s t r o n g and p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n e x i s t s between t h e h e i g h t of t h e i n i t i a l peak, p a s measured by, f o r example, be l i v e d i n r e g i o n j . i j

(O), and t h e l e v e l o f m i g r a t i o n

8 t h e f r a c t i o n of t h e expected i jt l i f e t i m e o f an i n d i v i d u a l b o r n i n r e g i o n i t h a t i s e x p e c t e d t o

Figure 4 indicates t h a t a s i m i l a r l y strong Finally, Figure 5

and p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between t h e h e i g h t o f t h e low p o i n t and t h e h e i g h t o f t h e i n i t i a l peak. peak and t h e low p o i n t . d e s c r i b e s t h e p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between t h e h e i g h t s of t h e h i g h Thus a d i r e c t l i n e o f c o r r e l a t i o n a p p e a r s t o c o n n e c t t h e g e n e r a l m i g r a t i o n l e v e l between two r e g i o n s t o t h e v a l u e s assumed by t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g a g e - s p e c i f i c p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f migrating. This s u g g e s t s t h a t a simple l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n equation may b e used t o a s s o c i a t e a s e t o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m i g r a t i o n a t each age x, pij (x) , w i t h a s i n g l e i n d i c a t o r of migration l e v e l ,
say i O j o
W e explore t h i s possibility next.

TOTAL US. POPULATION 1958 TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 1968

~ 0.05

~ : 0.10 MIGRATION LEVEL

~ a15

HIGH PEAK
INITIAL PW(

L ~ W POINT

TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 1958 TOTAL US POPULATION 1968

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

INITIAL PEAK

TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 1958 TOTAL U.S.POPULATION 1968

1.0 -

1
I

0.005

000 .1

0.015

0.020

0.025

LOW POINT

Figure 5. Relation I~etweenhigh peaks and low points in migration sclieclules.

3.2

Summarizing t h e R e q u l a r i t i e s :

Regression.

The m i g r a t i o n r i s k s e x p e r i e n c e d by d i f f e r e n t a g e and s e x g r o u p s of a g i v e n p o p u l a t i o n a r e s t r o n g l y i n t e r r e l a t e d , and h i g h e r ( o r l o w e r ) t h a n a v e r a g e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s among o n e segment of a p a r t i c u l a r p o p u l a t i o n n o r m a l l y imply h i g h e r ( o r lower) than a v e r a g e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o r o t h e r segments o f t h e same p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s a s s o c i a t i o n stems i n p a r t from t h e f a c t t h a t i f socioeconomic c o n d i t i o n s a t a l o c a t i o n a r e good o r poor f o r o n e g r o u p i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n , t h e y a r e a l s o l i k e l y t o b e good o r poor f o r o t h e r g r o u p s i n t h e same p o p u l a t i o n . Since.migration i s widely held t o be a r e s p o n s e t o s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n s i n s o c i o e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s , t h e s e h i g h i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s between a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n r i s k s are not surprising. F i g u r e s 3 , 4 , and 5 s u p p o r t t h e above c o n j e c t u r e a d d , moreo v e r s u g g e s t a way o f summarizing t h e o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s i n migration p r o b a b i l i t i e s . They i n d i c a t e t h a t a r e l a t i v e l y a c c u r a t e a c c o u n t i n g o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e h e i g h t of t h e i n i t i a l peak (and t h r o u g h it i n t h e h e i g h t o f t h e r e s t o f t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e ) may b e o b t a i n e d by means o f a s t r a i g h t l i n e f i t t e d t o t h e s c a t t e r of p o i n t s i n F i g u r e 3 . Thus a l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n o f t h e form

would seem t o b e a p p r o p r i a t e .

( 0 ) c a n n o t t a k e on negat i v e v a l u e s ; a c o n v e n i e n t way o f e n s u r i n g t h a t t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y
But ' i j

n e v e r a r i s e s i s t o f o r c e t h e l i n e t h r o u g h t h e o r i g i n by a d o p t i n g t h e zero-intercept s i m p l e l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n model

' s i n c e changes. i n f e r t i l i t y a l s o a f f e c t t h e h e i g h t o f t h e i n i t i a l p e a k , a p o s s i b l e f u r t h e r r e f i n e m e n t o f t h e model would b e t o i n c l u d e a v a r i a b l e d e s c r i b i n g t h e l e v e l o f f e r t i l i t y , f o r example, t h e reproduction r a t e .

The least-squares fit of such an equation to the data illustrated in Figure 3 gives

for the 1958 observations, and

for the 1968 data points. The fit in each instance is quite 2 satisfactory, yielding coefficients of determination (r ) of 0.94 and 0.84, respectively. Given estimates of B and 8 . we can obtain an estimate of i I (0). Figures 4 and 5 suggest that with the value of pij (0) Pij fixed, we can find the corresponding value of the low point and use that, in turn, to estimate the value of the high point. Generalizing this argument to all age groups beyond the first, we may adopt the simple model

where

(0) is estimated by equation 9.

Thus

and in general,

in which the f3 in (9)now is designated by B(0). consequence of our definitions

Note that as a

and

E q u a t i o n 11 may b e t r e a t e d a s a s i m p l e ( z e r o - i n t e r c e p t ) l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , and i t s c o e f f i c i e n t B(x) may b e e s t imated using t h e conventional l e a s t - s q u a r e s tion. procedure. Table 3 p r e s e n t s two s e t s o f s u c h c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e U.S. was e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f 1 9 6 8 d a t a . Regions. The r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n T a b l e 3 may b e u s e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g way. F i r s t , s t a r t i n g with a complete set of multiregional migration levels
8 . one c a l c u l a t e s t h e m a t r i x of m i -

t o t a l popula-

The f i r s t s e t was o b t a i n e d u s i n g 1958 d a t a , t h e second s e t In both instances t h e Census

o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n f l o w s w e r e t h o s e between t h e f o u r U.S.

g r a t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s P ( x ) f o r e v e r y a g e , u s i n g e q u a t i o n 11 and o n e o f t h e two s e t s o f r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n T a b l e 3 . (Figure


6 i l l u s t r a t e s a r a n g e o f s u c h p r o b a b i l i t i e s by way o f example.)

i l

With P ( x ) e s t a b l i s h e d , o n e t h e n may compute t h e u s u a l l i f e t a b l e s t a t i s t i c s , s u c h a s t h e s u r v i v o r s h i p p r o p o r t i o n s d e f i n e d i n equat i o n 8 and t h e v a r i o u s r e g i o n - s p e c i f i c e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t e a c h age. The c o l l e c t i v e r e s u l t s o f t h e s e c o m p u t a t i o n s c o n s t i t u t e a model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e . 3.3 F a m i l i e s o f Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s I n t h i s s e c t i o n w e c o n s i d e r t h e e f f e c t s on t h e m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e o f v a r i o u s d i s a g g r e g a t i o n s o f o u r d a t a on t h e U.S. u l a t i o n system. pops p e c i f i c a l l y , w e examine how t h e r e g r e s s i o n

c o e f f i c i e n t s s e t o u t e a r l i e r i n T a b l e 3 , and i l l u s t r a t e d below i n F i g u r e 7 , r e s p o n d t o v a r i o u s d i s a g g r e g a t i o n s of t h e e m p i r i c a l p o p u l a t i o n on t h e b a s i s o f which t h e y w e r e e s t i m a t e d . ~ i r s twe , d i s a g g r e g a t e t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n by s e x . Next, w e i n t r o d u c e a d i s a g g r e g a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o mean a g e . Then w e c o n s i d e r a s p a t i a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n o f t h e f o u r Census Regions i n t o t h e i r

Table 3.

Regression coefficients for obtaining model probabilities of migration.

Age

Total (1958) -2 r B

Total (1968) 2 B r
I

0.L7392

0.94 0.95 0.86 0.93 0.72 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.86 0.73 0.63 0.47 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.18

0.22002 0.15553 0.15040 0.29195 0.26370 0.20037 0.17907 0.14392 0.10397 0.07378 0.06352 0.07362 0.08320 0.06425 0.04919 0.03951 0.02058

0.84
0.89 0.94 0.85 0.72 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.95 0.91 0.76 0.54 0.43 0.47 0.64 0.64 0.63

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

0.13460 0.15736 0.30757 0.32271 0.23251 0.17897 0.12912 0.097 90 0.07522 0.06838 0.07347 0.08254 0.06086 0.04488 0.03019 0.01342

1 0

20

30

L O

50

60

70

80 AGE

Figure 6. Age-specific model probabilities of migration at various levels of migration.

c o n s t i t u e n t n i n e Census D i v i s i o n s .

F i n a l l y , we e x p l o r e t h e i m -

p a c t o f a n e v e n f i n e r d e c o n s o l i d a t i o n by mean a g e . The two r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e s i n F i g u r e 7 m i r r o r t h e f u n d a m e n t a l a g e p r o f i l e o f m i g r a n t s t h a t was a n a l y z e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s paper. The p r i n c i p a l d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e two coe f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e s a r e t h e h i g h e r and o l d e r h i g h peak i n t h e 1958 m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e , and t h e h i g h e r and o l d e r low p o i n t o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1968 s c h e d u l e . Beyond t h e m i d - t h i r t i e s t h e two p r o f i l e s a r e q u i t e s i m i l a r , w i t h b o t h showing a r e t i r e m e n t peak i n t h e 60-64 , y e a r - o l d a g e group. P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s bv Sex
A d i s a g g r e g a t i o n o f t h e 1968 d e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e

i n t r o d u c e s i m p o r t a n t v a r i a t i o n s by s e x , a c c o r d i n g t o F i g u r e 8. The m a l e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e h i g h e r from bhe v e r y e a r l y t e e n s t o t h e m i d - f o r t i e s and are l o w e r a t a l l o t h e r a g e s . The l o c a t i o n s o f t h e h i g h peak and t h e r e t k r e m e n t peak a r e t h e same i n b o t h p r o f i l e s , b u t t h e low p o i n t among m a l e s comes a t a y o u n g e r a g e tha.n i n f e m a l e s . A l s o , t h e r e t i r e m e n t peak among f e m a l e s i s b r o a d e r and s t a r t s a t a n e a r l i e r age. P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s by Mean Age Figure 9 i n d i c a t e s t h a t a d i v i s i o n of migration schedules i n t o "young" and " o l d " c a t e g o r i e s m i g h t b e a u s e f u l way o f d i s aggregating t h e regression c o e f f i c i e n t s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figures
7 and 8 .
I t shows two b a s i c a g e p r o f i l e s which a r e d i s t i n g u i s h -

a b l e by t h e p r e s e n c e o f a h i g h r e t i r e m e n t peak i n o n e p r o f i l e and i t s v i r t u a l a b s e n c e i n t h e o t h e r . profile.


W e d e s i g n a t e t h e former

p r o f i l e a s a r e t i r e m e n t p r o f i l e and t h e l a t t e r as a l a b o r f o r c e
An a l t e r n a t i v e d e s i g n a t i o n i s o l d and young p r o f i l e ,

respectively. P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s by S i z e o f A r e a l U n i t Because m i g r a t i o n n o r m a l l y i s d e f i n e d a s a c r o s s i n g o f a r e g i o n a l b o u n d a r y , it i s c l e a r t h a t r e d u c i n g t h e s i z e o f a s p a t i a l

u n i t s h o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e l e v e l of o u t m i g r a t i o n from t h a t u n i t , s i n c e some o f t h e moves t h a t p r e v i o u s l y d i d n o t c r o s s o v e r t h e o l d b o r d e r s now w i l l b e r e c o r d e d a s m i g r a t i o n s o v e r t h e new borders. But what o f t h e a g e p r o f i l e i n e a c h c a s e ? Should n o t Figure t h i s f e a t u r e o f t h e o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n 'flows r e m a i n e s s e n t i a l l y unchanged, a t l e a s t f o r t h e r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e a r e a l u n i t s ? jecture is valid. 10 ( l i k e F i g u r e l A b e f o r e i t ) g i v e s some e v i d e n c e t h a t t h i s conThe two r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e s t h a t
it i l l u s t r a t e s w e r e e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e same d a t a s e t ,

u s i n g f i r s t a n i n e and t h e n a f o u r - r e g i o n s p a t i a l d e l i n e a t i o n o f t h e t o t a l 1958 U.S. p o p u l a t i o n . The f a c t t h a t t h e f o r m e r i s a l w a y s h i g h e r t h a n t h e l a t t e r i s p e r h a p s a c o n s e q u e n c e of some c o n f o u n d i n g o f p r o f i l e and l e v e l i n t r o d u c e d by a g g r e g a t i o n b i a s . P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s by S e v e r a l Mean Age C l a s s e s The s p a t i a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of o u r d a t a from f o u r t o n i n e a r e a l u n i t s i n c r e a s e s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s from 12 t o 7 2 and t h e r e b y a f f o r d s u s a n o p p o r t u n i t y t o examine t h e i m p a c t of a f i n e r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by mean age. S p e c i f i c a l l y , w e now c o n s i d e r t h e d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of t h e 1958 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e i n t o f o u r i n s t e a d o f two mean a g e c a t e g o r i e s : " v e r y young" ( n i j 2 2 6 ) ; "young" (26 c n i j and " v e r y o l d " ( n i j

2 8 ) : " o l d " (28 <

nij

30);

30).

Except f o r v a r i a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e r e t i r e m e n t p e a k , t h e p r i n c i p a l i m p a c t o f t h e f i n e r d i s a g g r e g a t i o n by mean a g e a p p e a r s n o t s o much i n t h e a g e p r o f i l e a s i n t h e r e l a t i v e h e i g h t of t h a t p r o f i l e f o r a g i v e n v a l u e o f t h e m i g r a t i o n l e v e l i O j . Thus, f o r example, t h e a g e c u r v e o f t h e " v e r y o l d " p r o f i l e i n F i g u r e 11 i s a l m o s t e v e r y w h e r e h i g h e r t h a n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c u r v e o f t h e " v e r y young" p r o f i l e , f o r t h e s a n e Z e v e l o f m i g r a t i o n . The r e a s o n f o r t h i s i s n o t i m m e d i a t e l y a p p a r e n t and m e r i t s f u r t h e r study.
A p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n may l i e i n t h e f a c t t h a t i 8 j

i s a n i n d e x which combines a n a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n with a s p e c i f i c ( l i f e - t a b l e ) age composition. This p a r t i c u l a r c o n f o u n d i n g o f s c h e d u l e and c o m p o s i t i o n c o u l d p e r h a p s g e n e r a t e t h e v a r i a t i o n s i n p r o f i l e h e i g h t s t h a t appear i n F i g u r e 11,

-- -TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 1958 -TOTAL U.S. POPULATION 1968

0 0

: 10

: 20

: 30

: &O

50

: 60

: : : 70 AGE

0 0

: : 1 0

: ; 20

: : 30

: : 40

+ 50

60

70 AGE

1 0

20

30

40

50

60

70 AGE

Figurc 9. Ilegrcssia,~~o c f l i c ~ i ~ ~ r " y o u n ~ "and "olil" i:lassifivulion c 11). ~ l ~ (n.. 5 2 0 and A.. 1'1:): lolnl C.S. p0p111aLi~111~, arl~lI OGO. 10.5lI '1 '1

>

10

20

3 0

40

50

60

70

AGE

Figure 11. Regression coefficients for model migration schedules: total U.S. population, 1958, by several mean age classes.

a l t h o u g h t h e u n d e r l y i n g dynamics o f t h i s a r e by no means s e l f evident.

C o n s e q u e n t l y , it may w e l l b e t h e case t h a t t h e " f e r t -

i l i t y a p p r o a c h " w i t h i t s f o c u s on t h e GMR a s a n i n d e x o f m i g r a t i o n l e v e l h a s a b u i l t - i n advantage o v e r t h e " m o r t a l i t y approach" t h a t w e have been f o l l o w i n g i n t h i s s e c . t i o n . This p o s s i b i l i t y

is considered l a t e r i n t h i s paper.
The r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i l l u s t r a t e d above i n F i g u r e s 7 t h r o u g h 1 1 , may b e s a i d t o form f a m i l i e s o f model m i g r a t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s o r schedules. Those a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s o f mean a g e g i v e "young" and " o l d " p r o f i l e s ; t h o s e t h a t d o n o t c o n s i d e r mean a g e a s a n ind.ex g i v e " a v e r a g e " p r o f i l e s .
W e n e x t i l l u s t r a t e a n a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e f e m a l e " a v e r a g e " pro-

f i l e by c o n s t r u c t i n g a specimen model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e . 3.4 Application: Inference l i f e t a b l e s nor-

W e have noted e a r l i e r t h a t s i n g l e - r e g i o n

m a l l y a r e computed u s i n g o b s e r v e d d a t a on a g e - s p e c i f i c d e a t h

rates.
on

I n c o u n t r i e s l a c k i n g r e l i a b l e d a t a o n d e a t h r a t e s , how-

e v e r , r e c o u r s e i s o f t e n n a d e t o i n f e r e n t i a l methods t h a t r e l y

model l i f e t c b l ~ ss u c h a s t h o s e p u b l i s h e d by t h e U n i t e d
1967). These t a b l e s a r e e n t e r e d w i t h (and c o r r e s p o n d i n g l i f e

Eations (United Nations,

e m p i r i c a l l y determined s u r v i v o r s h i p p r o p o r t i o n s t o o b t a i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t b i r t h observed proportions. The i n f e r e n t i a l p r o c e d u r e s o f t h e s i n g l e - r e g i o n model ( t h e


U.lV.

t a b l e ) t h a t b e s t m a t c h e s t h e l e v e l s o f m o r t a l i t y i m p l i e d by t h e

m e t h o d , s a y ) maybe e x t e n d e d t o t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l case ( R o g e r s ,
Such an e x t e n s i o n b e g i n s w i t h t h e n o t i o n o f m o d e l

1975, C h . 6 ) .

m u Z t i r e g i o n a 2 l i f e t a b l e s and u s e s a s e t o f i n i t i a l estimates o f s u r v i v o r s h i p and m i g r a t i o n p r o p o r t i o n s t o i d e n t i f y t h e p a r t i c u l a r


c o m b i n a t i o n o f r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e , d i s a g g r e g a t e d by r e g i o n o f b i r t h and r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e , t h a t b e s t m a t c h e s t h e l e v e l s o f m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n i m p l i e d by t h e s e o b s e r v e d proport ions.

Model M u l t i r e g i o n a l L i f e T a b l e s Model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s a p p r o x i m a t e t h e m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s o f a m u l t i r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n s y s t e m by d r a w i n g on t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s o b s e r v e d i n t h e m o r t a l i t y and migrat i o n e x p e r i e n c e s o f comparable p o p u l a t i o n s . That i s , r e g u l a r i t i e s e x h i b i t e d by m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n d a t a c o l l e c t e d i n r e g i o n s where t h e s e d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e and a c c u r a t e a r e u s e d t o s y s t e m a t i c a l l y a p p r o x i m a t e t h e m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s o f popu l a t i o n s l a c k i n g such data'. Table 4 g i v e s t h e four r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t b i r t h and t h e d o z e n m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s t h a t t o g e t h e r c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e p a t t e r n s o f r e g i o n a l m o r t a l i t y and i n t e r r e g i o n a l m o b i l i t y o f U.S. f e m a l e s i n 1968. Interpolating i n the "hEST" f a m i l y of model l i f e t a b l e s d e v e l o p e d by C o a l e and Demeny ( 1 9 6 6 ) , w e f i r s t o b t a i n t h e a p p r o p r i a t e s e t o f model p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f d y i n g a t e a c h a g e f o r e a c h of o u r f o u r Census Regions. Inserti n g , i n t u r n , e a c h o f t h e dozen v a l u e s of i 8 j i n t o e q u a t i o n 1 1 , w i t h B ( x ) t a k i n g on t h e column o f " a v e r a g e " v a l u e s i l l u s t r a t e d f o r f e m a l e s i n F i g u r e 8 , w e may d e r i v e i n i t i a l a p p r o x i m a t i o n s f o r p i j (x). T h e s e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m i g r a t i o n may t h e n b e u s e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e a s s o c i a t e d i n t e r p o l a t e d model p r o b a b i l i t i e s of dying t o o b t a i n t h e matrix of survivorship praportions defined i n equation 8.
B y a p p r o p r i a t e l y m a n i p u l a t i n g e q u a t i o n 7 , we

a l s o c a n f i n d t h e a s s o c i a t e d model m i g r a t i o n r a t e s .

And t h e n ,

f o l l o w i n g t h e normal c o m p u t a t i o n a l p r o c e d u r e s o f m u l t i r e g i o n a l
l i f e t a b l e c o n s t r u c t i o n ( R o g e r s , 1975, C h . 3 ) , w e may d e r i v e ,

f o r example, t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g m a t r i x o f e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t b i r t h , a p p r o p r i a t e l y d i s a g g r e g a t e d by r e g i o n o f b i r t h a n d region of residence. Unfortunately t h e l a t t e r matrix usually


w i l l n o t y i e l d t h e same m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s t h a t w e r e used t o genSuch i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s o c c u r i n t h e e r a t e t h e P(x) matrix.

model l i f e t a b l e s o f C o a l e and Demeny ( 1 9 6 6 ) .

To e l i m i n a t e

them o n e must r e s o r t t o i t e r a t i o n .

Only i n t h i s way c a n o n e

o b t a i n a model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e whose s t a t i s t i c s and parameters a r e i n t e r n a l l y c o n s i s t e n t . F i g u r e 12 i l l u s t r a t e s f o u r s e t s o f model m i g r a t i o n ' r a t e s t h a t w e r e g e n e r a t e d i n t h e c o u r s e o f c o n s t r u c t i n g o u r specimen model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e f o r U.S. o b s e r v e d i n 1965-1970. females. Adjoining t h e f o u r model s c h e d u l e s a r e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g e m p i r i c a l s c h e d u l e s
A comparison o f t h e two s e t s o f s c h e d u l e s

s u g g e s t s t h a t , although t h e degree of correspondence i s f a i r l y c l o s e , f u r t h e r improvement would b e h i g h l y d e s i r a b l e . The U . N . The U . N . Method G e n e r a l i z e d method o f o b t a i n i n g i n i t i a l a g e - s p e c i f l c e s t i m a t e s

o f 10-year s u r v i v o r s h i p p r o p o r t i o n s from two c o n s e c u t i v e . d e c e n n i a l census-enumerated a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n s may b e g e n e r a l i z e d t o m u l t i r e g i o n a l population systems i f age-specific p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e by p l a c e o f b i r t h (PRPB) d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r b o t h census years. T h i s e a s i l y may b e d e m o n s t r a t e d by e x p r e s s i n g t h e s i n g l e r e g i o n p r o c e d u r e i n a l g e b r a i c form and r e v e r t i n g t o m a t r i x a l g e b r a t o d e f i n e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g m u l t i r e g i o n a l method. F i r s t , w e observe t h a t t h e single-region procedure f o r estimating s ( x ) may b e e x p r e s s e d a s f o l l o w s :

1o n s ( x ) = K(t+')
K

(X

+
(x)

10) = , ( t + l ) (x

lo)^(^)

(x)-'

(I3)

.............

- - - --.-a-

NE W S NE

to S to NC tow to NC

, . ..
i

' .

0.001~-

1 20 30 0

LO

50 60 70 80 AGE

0
0
1 20 30 4 50 60 0 0 70 80 AGE

A. Observed U.S. migration schedules

B. Model U.S. migration sclledules

F i r e 12. Observed and model female migration schedules.

Table 4 .

E x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e a t b i r t h and m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s by r e g i o n o r e s i d e n c e and r e g i o n of b i r t h : female United S t a t e s p o p u l a t i o n , 1968.

Region of Birth
1. Northeast 1

Region of Residence 2 5.08 (0.0681) 52.14 (0.7005) 7.88 (0.1060) 7.94 (0.1051) 3
10.11

Tot a1

4
5.25 (0.0704) 8.05 (0.1081) 6.93 (0.0931) 52.41 (0.6936)

54.13 (0.7260) 3.76 (0.0506) 5.06 (0.0680) 3.90 (0.0516)

(0.1356) 10.48 (0.1408) 54.53 (0.7328) 11.32 (0.1497)

-a .OO>
74.44 (1.00) 74.40 (1.00) 75.57 (1.00)

7 4.56

2. North C e n t r a l 3. South 4. West

where K ( ~ ( x ) d e n o t e s t h e number o f p e r s o n s aged ) y e a r s a t t i m e t.

to r + 9

Next w e r e c a l l t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l demographic

model t h a t p r o j e c t s p o p u l a t i o n s d i s a g g r e g a t e d by p l a c e o f r e s i d ence and p l a c e o f b i r t h (Rogers, 1975, p . 1 7 2 ) :

Normally o u r i n t e r e s t i n t h i s model c e n t e r s on t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of K(x). 0S ( x ) g i v e n n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s f o r 0K ( x ) and K(x + 5 ) , g i v e n p a r t i c u l a r n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s f o r S ( x ) and 0Now, however, w e c o n s i d e r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f ( 1 4 ) t o d e r i v e

(x

5)

Clearly,

and f o r a 10-year a g e and t i m e i n t e r v a l

Note t h a t (15) i s t h e m a t r i x e x p r e s s i o n o f

(13) :

Having found c r u d e i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e s o f t h e v a r i o u s r e g i o n a l s u r v i v o r s h i p and o u t m i g r a t i o n p r o p o r t i o n s by means o f t h e PRPB method, w e may c o n s t r u c t t h e a s s o c i a t e d ' l i f e t a b l e t o o b t a i n t h e r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t b i r t h t h a t a r e i m p l i e d by t h e s e p r o p o r t i o n s (Rogers,1975, pp. 85-88.) Then, a s i n t h e s i n g l e r e g i o n c a s e , w e may " a d j u s t " o u r i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e s o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f o u t m i g r a t i o n and d e a t h by i n t e r p o l a t i n g i n a n a p p r o p r i a t e s e t o f model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s ' ( R o g e r s , 1975, pp. 185-189).

4.

M D L MIGRATION SCHEDULES: OE

THE FERTILITY APPROACH

F e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e s have l o n g been r e c o g n i z e d a s e x h i b i t i n g a f u n d a m e n t a l p a t t e r n t h a t p e r s i s t s o v e r a wide r a n g e o f human populations. efforts: 1) T h i s r e c o g n i t i o n h a s f o s t e r e d two r e l a t e d r e s e a r c h one concerned w i t h t h e a n a l y t i c g r a d u a t i o n of Hoem and Berge, 1975)

f e r t i l i t y c u r v e s ( K e y f i t z , 1968, Chap. 6; s c h e d u l e s ( C o a l e and Demeny, 1966, p. 3 0 ) .

and 2 ) t h e o t h e r f o c u s e d on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f model f e r t i l i t y I n a r e c e n t p a p e r , C o a l e and T r u s s e l l (1974) combine t h e s e two l i n e s o f r e s e a r c h t o p r o v i d e a n a n a l y t i c g r a d u a t i o n o f a s t a n d a r d f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e from which a wide v a r i e t y o f f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s c a n b e d e r i v e d by a s i m p l e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i n v o l v i n g f o u r parameters. Observed f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s a r e d e f i n e d w i t h r e s p e c t F e r t i l i t y is held t o t o t h e n a t u r a l f e r t i l i t y o f m a r r i e d women.

b e a f u n c t i o n o f n u p t i a l i t y p a t t e r n s ( c h a r a c t e r i z e d by two p a r a -

m e t e r s ) , c o n t r a c e p t i o n ( c h a r a c t e r i z e d by o n e p a r a m e t e r ) , and a
f e r t i l i t y l e v e l ( c h a r a c t e r i z e d by one p a r a m e t e r ) . Such a model inseems t o p r o v i d e a good f i t , and r e a d i l y l e a d s t o methods f o r o b t a i n i n g an a p p r o p r i a t e f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e on t h e b a s i s o f population. I n t h i s s e c t i o n of o u r p a p e r , w e e x p l o r e t h e p o t e n t i a l u t i l i t y of t h e Coale-Trussell migration schedules. 4.1 The Fundamental Components o f M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s R e g u l a r i t i e s i n observed age-specific schedules of migration may be examined i n a number of i n t e r e s t i n g ways.
A particularly

adequat.e i ~ , f o r m a t i o nr e y a r d i n g t h e f e r t i l i t y r e g i m e o f a n o b s e r v e d

f e r t i l i t y a p p r o a c h f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g model
I

u s e f u l a p p r o a c h i s t o decompose t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e i n t o t h r e e p a r t s , s e p a r a t i n g t h e m i g r a t i o n rates of p e r s o n s i n t h e l a b o r f o r c e a g e g r o u p s from t h o s e o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e p r e - and p o s t - l a b o r f o r c e ages, respectively. Such a d e c o m p o s i t i o n g i v e s r i s e t o t h e t h r e e f u n d a m e n t a l c u r v e s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 13A:

1)

t h e s i n g l e negative exponential curve of t h e pre-labor f o r c e a g e s w i t h i t s r a t e of d e s c e n t , a l


;

FIGURE 13. DECONlPOSlTlOlU OF THE MIGRATION SCHEDULE

= rate of descent of pre-labor-force curve = rate of ascent of labor force cl.lrve a, = rate of descent of labor force curve A, = rate of ascent of post-labor-force curve a, = rate of descent of post-labor-force curve c = constant
a,

A,

--

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

AGE, x

13.A THE MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULE: ITS FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENTS AND THEIR PARAMETERS

xr =the retirement peak X = the labor force shift


A = the parental shift B = the jump

~p

~p

x+A

AGE, x

13.6 THE SHIFTS AND THE JUMP

2)

t h e l e f t - s k e w e d unimodal c u r v e o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e a g e s w i t h i t s r a t e s o f a s c e n t and d e s c e n t , h 2 and a2 r e s p e c t i v e l y ; and

,
force

3)

t h e a l m o s t b e l l - s h a p e d c u r v e of t h e p o s t - l a b o r

a g e s w i t h i t s r a t e s o f a s c e n t and d e s c e n t , A 3 a n d

a3 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . (When no r e t i r e m e n t peak i s e x h i b i t e d by t h e d a t a , t h i s l a s t c u r v e i s s u p p r e s s e d . )
F o r f u t u r e r e f e r e n c e , F i g u r e 13A. a l s o i n c l u d e s t h e c o n s t a n t c u r v e c , t o which w e s h a l l r e f e r l a t e r i n t h e p a p e r . model s c h e d u l e . Figure 13B i l l u s t r a t e s s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s a l o n g i t s low p o i n t , x l , its Its i n c l u s i o n improves t h e q u a l i t y o f f i t p r o v i d e d by t h e m a t h e m e t i c a l

t h e age p r o f i l e of a migration schedule:

and i t s r e t i r e m e n t peak, xr. Associated with high peak, x PI t h e f i r s t two p o i n t s i s t h e l a b o r f o r c e s h i f t , X I w h i c h . i s d e f i n e d a s t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n y e a r s between t h e a g e s o f t h e low p o i n t and t h e h i g h peak, i . e . X = x d u a l s aged x o v e r t h o s e aged xl.

- xl. A s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s P s h i f t i s t h e jump, t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e o f i n d i v i P Another i m p o r t a n t s h i f t i n o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s

a r i s e s o u t o f t h e c l o s e c o r r e s p o n d e n c e between t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s of c h i l d r e n and t h o s e o f t h e i r p a r e n t s . I f , f o r each p o i n t x on t h e p r e - l a b o r f o r c e p a r t o f t h e m i g r a t i o n c u r v e , w e o b t a i n by i n t e r p o l a t i o n t h e p o i n t , x + Ax, s a y , on t h e labor f o r c e curve t h a t y i e l d s t h e i d e n t i c a l r a t e of migration, then t h e average of t h e v a l u e o f A 14 y e a r s o f a g e ,


X'

calculated f o r t h e f i r s t

w i l l be defined t o be t h e observed p a r e n t a l s h i f t . Table 5 p r e s e n t s numerical approximations of t h e observed p a r e n t a l s h i f t f o r e i g h t Swedish r e g i o n s ( v i k s o m r g d e n ) , w i t h s i n g l e y e a r a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n and p o p u l a t i o n d a t a f o r 1974

T a b l e 5.

Observed v a l u e s of t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t :

Swedish r e g i o n s ,

1974

Regions of swedena

1.
4.
South
West

The P a r e n t a l S h i f t

2. Upper Stockholm E a s t 27.61 (3.19) 29.77 (0.86) 28.98 (0.58) 27.79 (0.60) 27.45 (0.23) 29.42 (0.23) 26.50 (0.31) 27.48 (0.96) 29.58 (1.75) 25.16 (0.50) 28.i7 (0.27) 26.59 (0.97)

3. Lower East

5.

6. Lower North

7. Middle North 30.07 (0.60) 27.21 (0.82)

8. Upper North 30.33 (0.83) 29.52 (2.01)

observed,

males

observed,

females

Mean a g e of c h i l d bearing, females

The a n n u a l m i g r a t i o n d a t a by s i n g l e - y e a r s of a g e and t h e r e g i o n a l d e l i n e a t i o n s were k i n d l y p r o v i d e d by Arne Arvidsson of t h e Swedish C e n t r a l B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s . The method f o r c a l c u l a t i n g t h e observed p a r e n t a l

V a l u e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s are v a r i a n c e s . s h i f t i s described i n t h e t e x t .

( S t o c h a s t i c v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e r a t e s were f i r s t smoothed o u t by Michael S t o t o u s i n g a method d e s c r i b e d i n Tukey (1977) c a l l e d "non-linear smoothing"). The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e o b s e r v e d The l a s t row i n t h e t a b l e p a r e n t a l s h i f t was r o u g h l y 26 t o 28 y e a r s f o r f e m a l e s w i t h a b o u t an a d d i t i o n a l two y e a r s f o r males. by t h e mean age of c h i l d b e a r i n g , 4.2 s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t may be c l o s e l y approximated (Stoto, 1977). Curve-Fitting

Surnmarizinq t h e R e g u l a r i t i e s :

Our examination o f t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s i n o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s s u g g e s t e d a decomposition i n t o t h r e e c u r v e s : n e g a t i v e e x p o n e n t i a l and two skewed unimodal b e l l - s h a p e d a single functions.

The obvious m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n f o r t h e f i r s t i s ae-ax; developed by Coale and McNeil (1972):

to

r e p r e s e n t t h e o t h e r two, we have adopted t h e " d o u b l e e x p o n e n t i a l "

And, because o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n r a t e s d o n o t d r o p t o z e r o w i t h i n t h e r a n g e of p o s t - l a b o r f o r c e a g e s n o r m a l l y r e c o r d e d , an a d d i t i o n a l c o n s t a n t t e r m ( t h e c i n F i g u r e 13A) needs t o be i n c l u d e d . f o u r c u r v e s , namely:


We

have t h e n a model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e t h a t i s t h e s i m p l e s m o f u

The " f u l l " model s c h e d u l e i n (17) h a s 11 p a r a m e t e r s :


p2,

a l , a l , a2,

a2, A*,

a3, p3,

a3, A3,

and c .

Migration schedules without a (17)

r e t i r e m e n t peak may b e r e p r e s e n t e d by a " r e d u c e d " model w i t h 7 p a r a m e t e r s , b e c a u s e i n s u c h i n s t a n c e s t h e t h i r d component o f i s omitted. e r s a r e s e t o u t i n T a b l e 6. I l l u s t r a t i v e v a l u e s f o r t h e model s c h e d u l e ' s paramet-

Table 6. Fundamental parameters of the model migration schedulea


POLAND, 1974
SWDEN, 1968-1973
Males GMRz1. 00 Females GMR=l .OO GIIR=1.00 ; 28.94 Females GMR=l. 00 Males GMR=1.00

UNITED STATES, 1966-1971


GMR=1 .00 m 29.63 Females

Parameters

and

p ales

a~east-squaresparameter estimates except in the case of the U.S. schedule, for which minimum chi-square estimates are also presented. Data sources are: for the U.S., Long (1973) and Long (1976, personal communication); Polish Central Bureau of Statistics (1974); and Swedish Central Bureau of Statistics (1974). All migration schedules were first scaled to a gross migraproduction rate (GMR) of unity.

Having c h o s e n t h e p a r t i c u l a r f u n c t i o n i n ( 1 7 ) t o r e p r e s e n t a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s , one t h e n i s f a c e d w i t h t h e problem o f s e l e c t i n g a method f o r f i t t i n g t h e f u n c t i o n t o o b s e r v e d migration data. Previous research i n t h e a n a l y t i c graduation of f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e s h a s shown t h a t moment t y p e e s t i m a t o r s may b e i n c o n s i s t e n t and d o n o t compare f a v o r a b l y w i t h f u n c t i o n a l m i n i m i z a t i o n methods s u c h a s minimum chi-square o r l e a s t square3 e s t i m a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s (Hoem, 1972,and Hoem and Berge, 1 9 7 5 ) . L e a s t s q u a r e s p a r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 6. Minimum c h i - s q u a r e e s t i m a t e s a r e a l s o i n c l u d e d f o r t h e U.S. f o r p u r p o s e s o f comparison. data, The d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e two s e t s

o f p a r a m e t r i c e s t i m a t e s t e n d t o b e s m a l l , and b e c a u s e t h e l a t t e r g i v e more w e i g h t t o a g e g r o u p s w i t h s m a l l e r r a t e s o f m i g r a t i o n ,

w e u s e minimum c h i - s q u a r e e s t i m a t o r s i n t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h e p a p e r .
To a s s e s s t h e q u a l i t y o f f i t t h a t t h e model s c h e d u l e p r o v i d e s when it i s a p p l i e d t o o b s e r v e d d a t a , two i n d i c e s o f goodness-off i t h a v e been i n c l u d e d i n T a b l e 6: mean" t h e chi-square s t a t i s t i c ,
X 2 , and t h e w m e a n a b s o l u t e e r r o r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e o b s e r v e d

Both m e a s u r e s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e f i t o f t h e model t o t h e d a t a

i s r e m a r k a b l y good.
The n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s i n T a b l e 6 s u g g e s t p o s s i b l e s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e model: 1) To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o f c h i l d r e n
, m i r r o r t h o s e of t h e i r p a r e n t s , t h e parameter a

should

b e approximately equal t o a2. o f t h e U.S., Poland and Sweden.

Table 6 i n d i c a t e s t h a t Thus a r e a s o n a b l e

t h i s i s indeed t h e c a s e f o r t h e migration schedules

s i m p l i f i c a t i o n o f t h e model i s t o assume t h a t a l = a 2 . 2) ~ x p e r i m e n t sw i t h a wide r a n g e o f e m p i r i c a l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e r a t i o o f t h e r a t e of d e s c e n t , a , t o t h a t o f t h e r a t e of a s c e n t , A , d o e s n o t v a r y g r e a t l y , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r t h e r e t i r e m e n t peak. assume, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t


We

- "3 & 3 - 5 - a constant = 5, say. The above two s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s r e d u c e t h e number o f p a r a m e t e r s i n t h e f u l l model t o 9 and i n t h e reduced model t o 6 . p l i f i e d model f o r d a t a on t h e U . S , , Table 7 compares t h e f i t s o f t h e o r i g i n a l model w i t h t h o s e o f t h e s i m Sweden, and e i g h t Swedish F i g u r e s 14 r e g i o n s d e f i n e d by Arne Arvidsson c f t h e Swedish C e n t r a l Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s (who a l s o k i n d l y p r o v i d e d t h a t d a t a ) . and 15 i l l u s t r a t e g r a p h i c a l l y t h e c l o s e n e s s of t h e f i t of t h e s i m p l i f i e d model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e t o t h e Swedish r e g i o n a l d a t a .
I t a p p e a r s t h a t l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n i s l o s t by s i m p l i f y i n g t h e

model, and w e t h e r e f o r e a d o p t t h e s i m p l i f i e d f u l l and r e d u c e d models f o r a l l a n a l y s e s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e r e s t o f t h i s p a p e r . 4.3 F a m i l i e s o f Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s Model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s of t h e o r i g i n a l form s p e c i f i e d i n ( 1 7 ) , o r o f t h e s i m p l i f i e d form d e s c r i b e d above, may b e c l a s s i f i e d i n t o f a m i l i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e v a l u e s t a k e n on by t h e i r p r i n c i p a l parameters. F o r example, w e may d i s t i n g u i s h t h o s e s c h e d u l e s w i t h a r e t i r e m e n t peak from t h o s e w i t h o u t ; o r

w e may r e f e r t o s c h e d u l e s w i t h r e l a t i v e l y low o r h i g h v a l u e s
f o r t h e r a t e of a s c e n t a2. I n many a p p l i c a t i o n s , it i s a l s o meaningful and c o n v e n i e n t t o c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e model s c h e d u l e s i n t e r m s o f s e v e r a l o f t h e fundamental measures i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 13, such a s t h e low p o i n t xl, t h e h i g h peak x
PI

the labor

f o r c e s h i f t X , t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t A , and t h e jump B. The s i m p l i f i e d model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e h a s a b u i l t - i n p a r e n t a l s h i f t which c a n b e d e f i n e d a n a l y t i c a l l y . Shortly a f t e r

14.A REGION I:STOCKHOLM (9 PARAMETERS)

14.B REGION 2: UPPER EAST (9 PARAMETERS)

1 4 s REGION 3: LOWER EAST (6 PARAMETERS)

14.D REGION 4: SOUTH (6 PARAMETERS)

FIGURE 14. OBSERVED AND SIMPLIFIED MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULES: FEMALES, SWEDISH REGIONS, 1974.

.060

-----Model Schedule Obse~ed Schedule Fundamental Components

.050

CI

u i

'

.040

t-

t-

,030

.020

C1

.010

0 1 5 A REGION 1: STOCKHOLM (9 PARAMETERS) 15.0 REGION 2: UPPER EAST (9 PARAMETERS)

15.C REGION 3: LOWER EAST (6 PARAMETERS)

15.D REGION 4: SOUTH (6 PARAMETERS)

FIGURE 15. OBSERVED AND SIMPLIFIED MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULES: MALES, SWEDISH REGIONS, 1974

Table 7.

The o r i g i n a l and t h e s i m p l i f i e d model m i g r a t i o n schedulesa: goodness-of-fits and r a t e s o f d e s c e n t

Region

Orisinal Model b

Simplified modelC MAE/M al =a2


,

United States, 1966-71 Males Females Sweden, 1968-73 Males Females Swedish Regions, 1974

3.41 3.96

0.1141 0.1177

0.0999 0.1216

1.

Stockholm Males Females Upper East Males Females Lower East Hales Females South Males Females West Males Females Lower North Males Females Middle North Males Females Upper North Males Females
14.88 13.28 0.1356 0.1261 0.1140 0.1417 6.42 .7.37 0.0811 0.1000 0.0858 0.1030

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

a b

Minimum c h i - s q u a r e e s t i m a t e s
1 1 p a r a m e t e r f u l l model f o r Stockholm and Upper E a s t o n l y ; i n a l l o t h e r c a s e s t h e 7 p a r a m e t e r r e d u c e d model was u s e d . 3 Upper E a s t o n l y ; model was u s e d .
9 parameter

(6

= 5)

s i m p l i f i e d f u l l model f o r Stockholm and

i n a l l o t h e r cases t h e 6 parameter s i m p l i f i e d

t h e h i g h peak, t h e l a b o r f o r c e c u r v e c a n be c l o s e l y approximated Recalling t h a t t h e pre-labor by t h e f u n c t i o n a2e-a2(x2-%2) -a 2X 1 when a l = a 2 , w e may e q u a t e t h e f o r c e c u r v e i s g i v e n by a 1 e

two f u n c t i o n s and s o l v e f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n a g e s , x2 - x l , t o f i n d

o u r new a n a l y t i c a l d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t . T a b l e 8 compares t h e v a l u e s of t h i s a n a l y t i c a l l y d e f i n e d p a r e n t a l s h i f t w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g observed p a r e n t a l s h i f t s

s e t o u t e a r l i e r i n T a b l e 5. The two d e f i n i t i o n s a p p e a r t o produce s i m i l a r n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s , b u t t h e a n a l y t i c a l d e f i n i t i o n h a s t h e a d v a n t a g e of b e i n g s i m p l e r t o compute, and i t i s a more


rigorous d e f i n i t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t , t h r e e o t h e r measures a r e s u f f i c i e n t t o c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e p r o f i l e o f a s i m p l i f i e d model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e w i t h o u t a r e t i r e m e n t peak. p o i n t , t h e h i g h peak, and t h e r a t e of d e s c e n t . They a r e :
2

t h e low

Taken t o g e t h e r

t h e f o u r measures v a r y i n a r e g u l a r manner, and by u s i n g an app r o p r i a t e c h a i n of i n f e r e n c e s , it i s p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e p a r t i c u l a r age p r o f i l e t h a t they specify. F i g u r e 16 shows t h a t f o r a g i v e n v a l u e of t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t , t h e l a b o r f o r c e s h i f t , X , v a r i e s a s a f u n c t i o n o n l y of t h e r a t e of d e s c e n t a and t h e r a t e of a s c e n t I . f o r xl, x o f A and p. P, Entering Figure 16 w i t h x For a g i v e n s e t o f v a l u e s a and A , i t i s t h e r e f o r e p o s s i b l e t o i n f e r t h e v a l u e s

A.

With v a l u e s f o r A ,

- x l , a , and A , w e o b t a i n P a , and A i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e n t e r F i g u r e 17 t o

N d i r e c t a n a l y t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n seems t o e x i s t f o r computing o t h e low p o i n t and t h e h i g h peak. However, t h e i r v a l u e s may be c a l c u l a t e d by means o f a n i t e r a t i v e n u m e r i c a l p r o c e d u r e t h a t s e e k s t h e a g e a t which t h e sum of two d e r i v a t i v e s a l o n g t h e migr a t i o n age p r o f i l e is zero.

Table 8: Observed and model v a l u e s of t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t : Swedish Regions, 1974

Reqions of Sweden

The P a r e n t a l S h i f t Lower East South West

1.
4.

3.
5.
6. Lower North

2. Upper Stockholm East

7. Middle North

8.
Upper North

Observed,

males

Model, m a l e s

Observed,

females

Model, f e m a l e s

Source:

T a b l e 5.

, Parental Shift ,

Parental Shift A = 23 A = 29

THE RATE OF ASCENT FIGURE 16. GRAPH OF THE LABOR FORCE SHIFT AGAINST THE RATE OF ASCENT FOR TWO VALUES OF THE PARENTAL SHIFT

o b t a i n t h e values of x for a , X,

- p, and t h e r e f o r e of p. With v a l u e s P p we have d e f i n e d t h e p r o f i l e ( b u t n o t t h e l e v e l ) of


To o b t a i n t h e l e v e l we a l s o need

a model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e . values for a,

a 2 , and c .

Preliminary empirical explorations i n d i c a t e t h a t p r o f i l e i n d i c e s such a s t h e low p o i n t , t h e high peak, and t h e two s h i f t s a r e somewhat more " r o b u s t " d e s c r i p t i v e measures of r e g u l a r i t i e s i n e m p i r i c a l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s t h a n a r e l e v e l - r e Zated i n d i c e s , such a s t h e fundamental model p a r a m e t e r s a and A . Perhaps, t h i s i s because t h e former a r e " p u r e r " i n d i c a t o r s o f p r o f i l e : they do n o t confound measures r e f l e c t i n g l e v e l s (such a s , f o r example, t h e GMR and t h e jump) w i t h measures i n d i c a t i n g l o c a t i o n s along t h e age a x i s . T h i s a t t r i b u t e of such p r o f i l e i n d i c e s i s s u g g e s t e d i n Table 9 , i n which b o t h s e t s of i n d i c a t o r s a r e p r e s e n t e d f o r i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n a l o n e and f o r i n t e r - p l u s i n t r a - r e g i o n a l The r e s u l t s a r e by no means c l e a r - c u t , b u t t h e y do s u g g e s t a p o s s i b l y f r u i t f u l d i r ection f o r f u r t h e r study.
4.4

(intercommunal) m i g r a t i o n t a k e n t o g e t h e r .

Application:

Graduation and I n t e r p o l a t i o n

Among t h e v a r i o u s a n a l y t i c a l and p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e concept d e s c r i b e d above, t h e most immediately obvious one i s t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f s i n g l e - y e a r migr a t i o n r a t e s from d a t a r e p o r t e d o n l y by f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l s .
A s a by-product of t h i s o p e r a t i o n one a l s o o b t a i n s t h e v a r i o u s

fundamental p a r a m e t e r s and p r o f i l e i n d i c e s d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r . M i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o r f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l s a r e weighted l i n e a r combinations o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s i n g l e - y e a r r a t e s , where each p a r t i c u l a r weight i s t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l t h a t f a l l s w i t h i n a p a r t i c u l a r s i n g l e y e a r o f age i n s i d e o f t h e i n t e r v a l . For purposes o f i n t e r p o l a t i o n , t h e s e w e i g h t s may b e d e r i v e d from an observed age composition, o r t h e i r v a l u e s may b e assumed t o f o l l o w t h o s e of some " s t a n d a r d " p o p u l a t i o n composition, e . g . , a s t a b l e population.

Given a r a n g e of p o p u l a t i o n w e i g h t s by s i n g l e y e a r s o f age and a s e t of observed m i g r a t i o n r a t e s by f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l s ,

w e may s e a r c h f o r t h e model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e t h a t reproduces

PARENTAL SHIFT A = 23 PARENTAL SHIFT A = 29

0.30

0.40

0.50 THE RATE OF ASCENT

0.60

0.70

FIGURE 17. GRAPH OF THE PEAK TO MEAN DISTANCE AGAINST THE RATE OF ASCENT FOR TWO VALUES OF THE PARENTAL SHIFT

Table 9 . Parameter v a r i a t i o n under g e o g r a p h i c a l a g g r e g a t i o n

Region of Sweden
2.

PARAMETERS Upper East Females Inter


1.81 2.40
1 .01

I
3. Lower East

II
Males All
1.24 1.07 1.31

I I
Females All

4. South

I
Males Females All Inter All

Males All
'

I1
Ail \Inter Inter

Inter
2.32

I1 I
1
11nter
0.88

I
1.47 0.85 1.47 14.77 15.46 14.60

GMR

1.76

1
14.53

al = a 2

X2

the high peak P' 1 , the low point


15.94 7.72 28.97 26.33 26.62 29.63 29.36 6.90 6.63 7.72 7.32 14.57 14.77 15.30 15.58 14.94 6.03 27.51

15.82

15.03 5.88 27.30

I
9.63 29.74 8.93 29.31 7.02 28.21 7.05 27.38

X.,

the labor force shift

7.92

A, the parental shift

28.97

b e s t ( i n t h e l e a s t s q u a r e s o r minimum c h i - s q u a r e s e n s e ) t h e s e t of observed m i g r a t i o n r a t e s . Formally, t h e e s t i m a t i o n only t h e c r i t e r i o n a l g o r i t h m i s p r e c i s e l y t h e same a s b e f o r e ;

f u n c t i o n t o be minimized i s s l i g h t l y a l t e r e d . Table 10 p r e s e n t s t h e r e s u l t s of f o u r such g r a d u a t i o n i n t e r p o l a t i o n e x p e r i m e n t s u s i n g t h e r e g i o n a l d a t a f o r Sweden. I n it a r e c o n t r a s t e d t h e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t s t a t i s t i c s , parameter e s t i m a t e s , and l e v e l and p r o f i l e i n d i c e s produced i n t h e c o u r s e o f f i t t i n g t h e model s c h e d u l e t o m i g r a t i o n d a t a by s i n g l e - y e a r and f i v e - y e a r i n t e r v a l s of age. The r e s u l t s show t h a t t o a remarkable e x t e n t , f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l d a t a may be used i n p l a c e o f t h e g e n e r a l l y s c a r c e r m i g r a t i o n d a t a by s i n g l e y e a r s o f age. rates. F i g u r e 18 i l l u s t r a t e s g r a p h i c a l l y t h e q u a l i t y 0 5 t h e f i t provided by t h e g r a d u a t i o n - i n t e r p o l a t i o n p r o c e d u r e t o d a t a on t h e m i g r a t i o n of males o u t o f Stockholm and i n c l u d e s , f o r ~ u r p o s e s o f c o n t r a s t , t h e f i t p r o v i d e d t o t h e same i n p u t d a t a o f a c u b i c s p l i n e (McNeil, T r u s s e l l , and T u r n e r , 1977). Note t h a t t h e s p l i n e i n t e r p o l a t i o n i s less a c c u r a t e i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h e r e t i r e ment peak, and i t i n t r o d u c e s a b r e a k i n t h e c u r v e ( a n i n f l e c t i o n p o i n t ) a t a g e 35. I n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n 85 one-year a g e group r a t e s may b e i n f e r r e d q u i t e a c c u r a t e l y from 17 f i v e - y e a r a g e group

3 ~ an a d d i t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r o f t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e f i t , w e i n c l u d e s a p l o t o f t h e r e s i d u a l s a t t h e bottom o f t h e graph. These may


be reduced t o z e r o by f u r t h e r i n t e r p o l a t i o n , b u t t h e model s c h e d u l e t h e n l o s e s i t s smooth r e g u l a r i t i e s .