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Table of Contents
Section I Section II Section III Section IV Section V Appendix Market Environment Mobile Growth Story Mobile Entertainment Mobile Commerce Trends to Watch Public and Transaction Comparables
Overview
Consumers desire to be constantly connected is catalyzing the transition from traditional computer segments (e.g. desktops, notebooks) to smartphones and tablets
Social networking and mobile video are key drivers 2011 will be the first year where smartphone shipments exceed computer shipments
The mobile commerce industry or mCommerce continues its high growth trajectory as traditional retailers and startups leverage consumers desire for immediate real-time transactions
Growth in mCommerce provides huge upside potential for the mobile advertising industry as consumers are now constantly connected with mobile internet access As mobile personalization (e.g. ringtones, wallpapers, etc.), the largest subsector, nears maturity, mobile entertainment is rapidly emerging as the largest expanding market
Googles acquisition of Motorola Mobility will further engrain Android in the mobile market AT&Ts acquisition of T-Mobile will have a large impact on the U.S. mobile ecosystem
Acquisition brings the U.S. mobile market in-line with other developed markets via consolidation down to 3 dominant mobile operators Market power and aggregate revenue will concentrate in the top two, leaving Sprint a distant third
SeriesAPreferredStock
A Win-Win Situation:
S&A advised and guided mDialog to the next evolution in its corporate life mDialog selected a financial partner with a shared vision of its mission and growth prospects
Siemer&Associatesactedastheexclusive financialadvisortomDialog
hasbeenacquiredby
A Win-Win Situation:
S&A worked with GoTV Networks to complete a transaction within a specific timeframe that met the needs of its investors Phunware is now one of the largest app development studios
Siemer&Associatesactedastheexclusive financialadvisortoGoTVNetworks
A Win-Win Situation:
S&A worked with Pringo to complete a transaction that met its desire to continue growing its platform as it enters a new phase of its business development The combined company platform is now more robust, converging users desire to have a mobile and online presence at once
Siemer&Associatesactedastheexclusive financialadvisortoPringo
Mobile 2.0
Enablers of Mobile Transition Ubiquitous mobile broadband access Affordable, unrestricted access to enabling software platforms, tools and technologies Open access, with seamless distribution and monetization abilities Web 2.0 Goes Mobile
The social web meets mobility Operator Portals WAP sites WAP push Not a Lot of Innovation Ringtones Wallpaper Billing model voice + SMS premium Latency Battery life Bandwidth limitation Constraints Privacy Security Extensive use of user-generated content so the site is owned by its contributors
Modern, low-end phones that have web capabilities but do not run a true and complete mobile operating system
High-end phones that run a complete operating system and are able to multitask between fully functional web browsers, email, video, gaming and music features
Tablets are complete mobile computers that further enhance web and media capabilities with larger screens and more advanced processors
50.0% 50.0% 44.0% 38.0% 36.0% 32.0% 30.0% 27.0% 28.0% 30.0% 27.0% 20.0% 17.0% 17.0% 21.0% 18.0% 12.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 38.0% 30.0% 30.0% 36.0% 36.0% 31.0% 32.0% 46.0%
40.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
0.0% Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Blackberry OS (RIM) Source: ChangeWave Research Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 iOS (Apple) Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Android (Google)
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Description
Opening their networks to targeted third-party content and applications Actively working with mobile platforms to improve the mobile content ecosystem Increasingly open to outsourcing non-core content operations to partners with D2C expertise Handset technology advances enable richer, more sophisticated mobile content product offerings (e.g., iPhone, RIM, Nokia, LG, Motorola) Proliferation of 3G/4G and Wi-Fi in mobile devices enables data-intensive content distribution High-definition video will be more prevalent and the proportion of streamed content compared to side-loaded content is also expected to increase Content owners are beginning to develop content exclusively for mobile platforms Consumers have a strong desire to get content via mobile platforms
Mobile consumers have a strong and growing desire for highly-interactive mobile apps and content Elaborate and engaging apps are continuing to drive adoption
Brands are increasing their mobile marketing and advertising dollars to reach target demographics with an engaging rich media experience
11
Description
Carriers are having to continually invest in new network infrastructure to support the robust growth of mobile 2.0 Mobile 1.0 market has reached maturity and is a declining business model Free and ad-funded business models aggressively pursuing market share may increase customer expectations for paid content Mobile social networks starting to compete with content players and mobile operators for consumer mindshare Media distribution converging onto mobile devices, increasing number of potential competitors from adjacent industries (e.g., Disney, Hearst, Yahoo) Aggressive billing practices, through Mobile 1.0 content, are under increasing regulatory scrutiny, requiring:
Limits on total billable amount Double confirmations of subscription activation
Mobile Convergence
Regulatory Environment
Cost Control
Major carriers face an increasingly saturated market with falling average revenue per user Wireless carrier revenue will top $1.0tn by 2016, though anticipatory measures must be taken to ensure future profitability Challenging to build cross-device applications as operating systems fragment
Platform Fragmentation
12
700
722
600
500
478
400
300
346 313
370
393
418
200
100
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
Traditional Devices Mobile Devices Source: Wall Street Research Note: Traditional devices include desktops, notebooks and netbooks; mobile devices include smartphones and tablets
14
Tablet Growth
100 Global Unit Shipments (mm) 600 620 Global Unit Shipments (mm)
102
80
85
515
400
423
60 55
297 200
40
20 16
2011E
2012E
2013E
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
15
40.0%
40.0%
35.0%
15.0% 13.0%
10.0%
10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% HTC Q1 2011 Sony Ericsson 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% Motorola 4.0% 1.0% LG Others
5.0%
5.0%
0.0% Nokia Apple RIM Samsung Q1 2010 Source: IMS Research, Wall Street Research
16
South Korea 30% China 21% India 12% Asia Pacific Total = 16%
17
75
81 74 70 32.0%
47.0%
64
66
Games 45
Social Networking
News
Entertainment
Other
43
30
15
10.0 5.0
0.0
Source: Flurry Analytics Note: U.S. Mobile App Consumption as of May 2011
18
$8.0
$8.3
$6.9
$6.0
$5.0
$5.6
$4.0
$3.8
$3.0
$2.0
$2.1
$1.0
$0.2
$0.0 2008A
$0.8
2009A 2010A 2011F 2012E 2013E 2014E
Source: iSuppli
19
As of February 2011, Yelp had registered 3.2 million unique visitors on its mobile app while 35% of all searches came via a mobile device
Mobile users now constitute over 50% of total active users and, as of July 2011, 43% of total tweets are made with a mobile device
Over 200 mm active mobile users in 2011 vs. only 50 mm in September 2009; mobile users now double the amount of desktop-only users
20
Companies like ZenTracker track a child's location in real-time and sends messages if the child leaves a designated safe area Built into Google Maps
Fully interactive and useful apps that go beyond entertainment only purposes are now ubiquitously available, such as monitoring and equipping a household alarm
OnStar, the multifaceted car service, offers one of many available full service apps that doesnt simply turn on your car, but monitors all critical performance metrics in real-time
21
MOBILE ENTERTAINMENT
2008A-2012E CAGR
$33.6 $30.0 $26.9 $23.6 $10.6 $7.1 $4.9 $2.5 $4.3 $3.1 2009A $3.0 $4.8 $3.7 2010A $5.9 $3.6 $4.8 $4.3 2011E $4.4 $5.4 $5.0 2012 E $11.3 $11.8
Total
14.1%
Personalization
6.7%
23
6000.0
5000.0
4000.0
2,452.9
Video
103.8%
3000.0
2000.0
1,334.3
1,407.0
1000.0
655.4 160.1 288.4 33.4 72.6 321.0 113.8 561.2 125.3 176.7
893.3
258.7 201.0
378.6 318.8
2013E
2014E
2015E
24
Smartphones will increasingly be used as a personal hub for video and other content
With multitasking abilities boosted by dual-core chips, streaming media from a smartphone becomes much more seamless as phones can still function as a web browser and handle email, even while being used as a playback hub
The global penetration rate of dual-core smartphones is expected to be 15.0% by the end of 2011 and will grow to 45.0% by 2015 Nvidia has begun taking advantage of the potential of mobile graphics capabilities, offering a dedicated Android app to provide high quality games that specifically leverage their own dual-core technology More powerful technology in conjunction with larger screen sizes leave tablets positioned for explosive growth
Mobile entertainment companies that can adjust their application offerings to successfully leverage the rapid advances in tablet technology will be best positioned to outperform in a crowded industry
25
140 Average Minutes Spent Watching Mobile Coverage of 2010 World Cup 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2-Inch 3-Inch Screen Size Source: Venturebeat.com, Moconews.net 4-Inch 5-Inch
118.2 102.2
61.1
67.4
26
Aggregate mobile data consumption grew by 77.0% from 1H 2010 to 1H 2011, far higher than the growth of fixed networks (25.0%) Video streaming grew 93.0% in the first six months of 2011 VoIP and messaging traffic grew even faster at 101.0%, but still only represents a total of 4.0% of all mobile traffic YouTube accounted for a 22.0% share of total mobile bandwidth usage
4% 3%
As of May 2011, Apple continues to dominate the mobile video market with an 80.0% share
The iPad already accounts for 20.0% market share of the mobile video streaming market as traditional networks such as HBO and ABC continue to embrace and create high-quality apps for the device
Although Android comprises 20.0% of the total mobile video market, Google-owned (and Androidoperated) YouTube apps accounted for 52.0% of mobile video streaming
20% 25% 39% 22% 20% 78% 29% Other Apps Video Streaming Web Browsing Other Apps File Sharing VoIP YouTube iPod iPhone 30%
27
39% 65%
The freemium model allows businesses to offer games free of charge while charging a premium for advanced features Apple introduced in-app purchases (the ability to buy things such as virtual goods without leaving an app) in Q4 2010 and Google followed in Q2 2011 Mobile games occupy roughly 75.0% of all top 100 grossing apps in app stores, making freemium the most dominating business model in the mobile apps industry
61% 35%
28
Value
(large long-term niche)
Volume
(mass market growth)
America
Europe Japan
China
India
Social Mobile
Social-Mobile Casual Online Browser-based MMO
South Korea
Brazil
Users: Millions to tens of millions Average Revenue Per User: $ - $$$ Costs: Ranges from millions to tens of millions Operating Profit: Negative to 20%+ Growth Rate: Negative to <10% Business Model: Unit sales, subscriptions, virtual goods
Source: Wall Street Research
Users: Thousands to hundreds of millions Average Revenue Per User: - $$ Costs: Tens of thousands to millions Operating Profit: Negative to 60% Growth Rate: Negative to 20% - 100%+ Business Model: Unit sales, free, virtual goods, ads
29
MOBILE COMMERCE
31
Googles rendition is comprehensive and when a consumer swipes their phone, coupon offers can be automatically redeemed to save the consumer money and/or earn them loyalty points As a result of integration with Google Wallet, offers are tied directly into the wallet app and consumers are able to either scan and pay discounted pricing immediately, or they can display a barcode on their screen which merchants can scan
Current issues with digital wallets lie not with technology but with inconsistent consumer adoption trends
Physical cards work reasonably well, thus successful firms will look to incentivize consumers with tangible rewards When consumers begin getting real value from mobile-based digital and virtual programs, the switch to mobile wallets will become increasingly attractive
32
Revenue Trends
As new technology continues to provide more seamless and secure digital payment services, global mCommerce revenue is set to reach $31.0bn by 2015 mCommerce is also a leading indicator of mobile advertising growth with advertising revenues following consumers as they increasingly shift their preferences toward mobile purchases
$30
$31.0
$20
$20.6
$23
$15
$15
$10
$8
$5
$6.0
$0 2011F 2015E $0
$3.3
2011F 2015E
33
75.0% of respondents in a 2011 IAB survey reported that buying and selling ads in social media and mobile platforms is important Mobile video is emerging as an important element of mobile internet use
In addition to YouTube, applications for ESPN, Netflix, Hulu and HBO are now available on Android and iOS devices Mobile video data traffic is forecast to grow at a compound annualized rate of 131.0% between 2009 and 2014 Mobile video will reach 66.0% of mobile internet traffic by 2015 By 2014, half of U.S. web browsing will be done on mobile devices
$1,400.0
45 30 15
52.5
$370.0
$0 2010A 2015E Source: Wall Street Research, Cisco Research(2010) and 2011 IAB Interactive Ad IQ Survey 0
17.6
2010A 2015E
34
Optimize ad distribution
35
Subscriber
Source: LUMAscape
Marketer
36
Ad Networks
Media Buyers
ADVERTISERS
PUBLISHERS
Data Suppliers
Location Networks
Source: LUMAscape
37
TRENDS TO WATCH
Software and services for content Distribution and storage methods for content Directories and listings for mobile users Developers of branded widgets
39
2010A 146 164 36 16 362 351 (5) 346 16 362 7% 22% 8% 19% 15% 14% 30%
2011F 152 189 29 55 425 386 (16) 370 55 425 5% 15% -20% 245% 17% 10% 7% 29%
2012E 157 210 26 85 478 416 (23) 393 85 478 3% 11% -11% 54% 12% 8% 6% 27%
2013E 159 232 27 102 519 439 (21) 417 102 519 1% 10% 5% 20% 9% 6% 6% 21%
40
Competition between HTML5 and native apps will significantly shape the future of mobile gaming
HTML5 developers latest approach is the hybrid app, which is a native app that runs all components in a browser
With games running in the browser, users wont be dependent on purchasing from app stores which currently take a 30% cut from developers
95% of the functionality of native apps can currently be delivered by HTML5, leaving native apps with only a temporary advantage, which provides marginal differentiation for the vast majority of apps
The introduction of tiered data pricing by Verizon presents a challenge in marketing dataheavy mobile entertainment services, particularly mobile video, to new smartphone converts
With multi-core technology, developers will be able to streamline their offerings to consume data more efficiently, although new customers may still avoid innovative apps altogether if they cannot clearly understand their pricing options
41
Mobile Companies Acotel Group SpA Artificial Life, Inc. Aspiro AB Buongiorno SpA Com2uS Corporation DADA SpA Danal Co. Ltd. Dena Co. Ltd. Digi.com Bhd SmartEbook.com. Co., Ltd. GameLoft SA Glu Mobile, Inc. Gree, Inc. Index Corporation Kongzhong Corp. Motricity, Inc. NeuMedia, Inc. Smith Micro Software Inc. SNAP Interactive, Inc. Tencent Holdings Ltd. Tose Co. Ltd. Velti Plc
Ticker ACO ALIF ASP BNG A078340 DA A064260 2432 DIGI 2330 GFT GLUU 3632 4835 KONG MOTR MNDL SMSI STVI 700 4728 VELT
Share Price $31.80 0.06 0.22 1.39 23.46 2.81 6.27 34.67 11.03 25.06 5.63 3.12 35.42 24.11 4.93 1.45 0.65 1.12 0.63 23.06 6.30 8.75 Mean Median
Market Cap $130.8 4.4 45.3 146.5 223.6 45.6 103.1 5,119.9 8,578.3 55.0 426.8 198.7 8,201.5 94.8 186.2 67.0 27.1 40.1 23.8 36,553.4 46.6 538.6
Enterprise Value (EV) $84.6 4.9 37.4 262.8 186.6 80.9 81.1 4,294.9 8,495.6 -2.0 391.6 161.9 7,931.1 353.9 53.2 70.3 32.1 -14.0 15.1 34,617.6 19.5 408.6 $2,616.7 $82.9
EV / FYE Revenue EBITDA 0.4x 0.1x 0.9x 0.8x 7.5x 0.4x 1.1x 2.9x 4.9x NM 1.9x 2.5x 9.5x 1.2x NM 0.5x 3.5x NM 2.3x 11.6x 0.3x 3.5x 2.9x 1.9x 12.2x 0.3x NM 6.0x 49.9x 6.3x 10.8x 5.7x 11.5x NM 11.2x NM 19.5x 11.1x 2.6x 14.6x NM NM NM 21.8x 3.3x 21.3x 13.0x 11.2x
EV / LTM Revenue EBITDA 0.5x 0.3x 0.9x 0.8x 7.0x 0.4x 1.1x 2.5x 4.5x NM 1.8x 2.4x 7.4x 1.2x NM 0.5x 4.0x NM 0.9x 8.5x 0.3x 2.6x 2.5x 1.2x 4.9x NM NM 6.4x 45.5x 8.9x 10.8x 5.1x 10.2x NM 11.1x NM 14.6x 11.1x 2.4x 14.4x NM NM NM 17.6x 3.3x 65.3x 15.4x 10.8x
LTM Annual Revenue Growth -24.4% -42.2% 36.2% -1.9% 0.2% 38.5% -1.3% 59.5% 12.5% -58.4% 20.9% -1.6% 101.5% -34.0% 7.9% 8.5% -30.8% -34.5% 250.4% 46.5% 27.9% 28.1% 18.6% 8.2%
Source: Capital IQ
43
Source: Capital IQ
44
Source: Capital IQ
45
Source: Capital IQ
46
Source: Capital IQ
47
Source: Capital IQ
48
Source: Capital IQ
49
Target
Business Description
Mobile Apps Mobile Games Mobile Apps Mobile Commerce Mobile Platform Mobile Apps Mobile Advertising Mobile Apps Mobile Apps Mobile Software Mobile Services Mobile Services Mobile Games Mobile Advertising Mobile Advertising
Source: Capital IQ *Total Funding Raised includes all public data, some rounds were not disclosed
50
Target
Business Description
Mobile Video Mobile Software Mobile Platform Mobile Advertising Mobile Platform Mobile Advertising Mobile Apps Mobile Apps Mobile Media Services Mobile Commerce Mobile Services Mobile Commerce Mobile Advertising Mobile Apps Mobile Services Mobile Games Mobile Messaging Mobile Messaging Mobile Services Mobile Advertising Mobile Advertising Mobile Games
Source: Capital IQ *Total Funding Raised includes all public data, some rounds were not disclosed
51
Target
Business Description
Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Advertising Mobile Gaming Mobile Media Services Mobile Advertising Mobile Media Services Mobile Advertising Mobile Media Services Mobile Media Services Mobile Gaming Mobile Gaming Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Advertising Mobile Messaging Services Mobile Gaming Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Gaming Mobile Gaming Mobile Entertainment Services
Source: Capital IQ *Total Funding Raised includes all public data, some rounds were not disclosed
52
Target
Business Description
Mobile Messaging Services Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Gaming Mobile Gaming Mobile Advertising Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Gaming Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Gaming Mobile Gaming Mobile Media Services Mobile Media Services Mobile Gaming Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Gaming Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Advertising Mobile Gaming Mobile Advertising
Source: Capital IQ *Total Funding Raised includes all public data, some rounds were not disclosed
53
Target
Business Description
Mobile Messaging Services Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Content Provider Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Media Services Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Advertising Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Gaming Mobile Content Provider Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Gaming Mobile Messaging Services Mobile Entertainment Services Mobile Gaming Mobile Gaming Mobile Messaging Services Mobile Software Solutions Mobile Messaging Services Mean Median
Source: Capital IQ *Total Funding Raised includes all public data, some rounds were not disclosed
54
Mobile Index
Source: CapitalIQ
55
Contact Information
Los Angeles
New York
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Ivan Nikkhoo
Managing Director (310) 861-2106 ivan.nikkhoo@siemer.com
Jonathan Roth
Managing Director (310) 861-2108 jonathan.roth@siemer.com
Martin Lichauco
Managing Director +852 3051 8180 martin.lichauco@siemer.com