CBRE VIETNAM

HANOI
www.cbrevietnam.com October 2011

Economics Quick Stats

Change from last VIETNAM Real GDP Growth Implemented FDI Exports Imports CPI (average) Tourism (arrivals) Base Rate Exchange Rate (e-o-p) Current 5.76% $2.9 bil $27.7 bil $27.9 bil 18.16% 1.35 mil 9% 20,628 Yr. Qtr.

VIETNAM The third quarter of 2011 brings about positive signs with CPI growth in September slowed down to 0.82% m-om. The GDP increased by 5.76% y-o-y in first 9 months. The chaotic movement of the domestic gold market is reflected in the fact that gold price index of September 2011 increased by 30.48% compared to that of December 2010. Implemented FDI in the first nine months (US$8.2 billion) shows sign of improvement with 1.9% increase y-o-y. Export turnover in the first nine months reached US$70 billion (increased by 35.4%) while import turnover reached US$76.9 billion (an increase of 26.9%) y-o-y. Total retail sales of goods and services reached VND1,392 392.9 trillion, a-n increase of 22.8% y-o-y. However the growth is only 3.9 9% level if excluding price increase. International visitor arrivals to Vietnam reached 4.31 million in the first nine months, an increase of 15. .5% y-o-y.

HANOI In Hanoi, GDP grows by 9.4% y-o-y in the third quarter of 2011. This result is quite encouraging given the current international and domestic economic situation. On a positive note, the CPI growth shows sign of slowdown: July-1.32%, August-1.06%, September-0.2%. In addition, industrial production value increased by 12.7% . In terms of trade turnover, exports and imports in the first nine months increased by 26.2% and 18.7% y-o-y respectively. FDI recorded US$999.6M (three-fold yo-y), in which US$493.5M is registered capital in 190 new projects and US$506.1M is additional capital in 49 existing projects. Hotel and travel business turnover witnessed an increased by 18.2% y-o-y. International visitor arrivals to Hanoi in the first nine months reached 898,000an increase of 6.7% y-o-y.

*The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time period and do not represent a positive or negative value.

Hot Topics
ECONOMY: GDP unlikely to meet the 6% target set by the government. RESIDENTIAL: Q3 welcomed new launch of 1,700 condo units, a modest figure compared to 17,000 units released in H1 2011. SERVICED APARTMENTS: Asking rents increased esp. in internationally operated projects. New supply is facing strong competition from buy-to-let apartments. OFFICE: The South side of the city starts forming a new submarket that connects well with new developments and CBD . RETAIL: PiCO Mall and Hang Da Galleria opened in Q3. Upcoming supply will provide more choices to tenants and shoppers, and pressure on developers. HOTEL: Except the 3-star segment, due to low season in Q3, occupancy rates and ADR were lower in all segments. High season at year end is expected to help improve occupancy and ADR by 5-10 pp.

Hanois GDP (%)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2009 2010 2011

Hanois CPI (%)

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2009 2010 2011

2011, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.

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RESIDENTIAL FOR SALE MARKET

CONDOMINIUM Total launch supply (units) New launch (units) Primary market - Average asking price (US$ psm) Secondary market - Average asking price (US$ psm) Q-o-q change (%) Y-o-y change (%) LUXURY 2,216 0 N/A $3,330 -1.1% 1.5% HIGH-END 19,819 606 $1,860 $1,940 -1.9% 1.4% MID-END 62,061 1,049 $1,080 $1,390 -0.6% 1.7% LOW-END 14,960 0 N/A $1,030 -0.2% 3.0% TOTAL 99,056 1,655 $1,470 $1,920 -0.9% 1.9%

New Launch Supply (units)

18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011YTD

The third quarter of 2011 welcomed a new launch supply of 1,700 condominium units, a modest figure compared to 17,000 units released in the first half of 2011. Factors contributing to this significant drop include: include the traditional market slowdown in the lunar month of July; the attractiveness of alternative investment channels such as gold and bank deposits; the absence of mega projects that accounted for a half or a third of new supply, which was the case in the first half of the year. Secondary asking prices were on a negative trend. While the Low-end and Mid-end segments maintained stable prices, the High-end and Luxury segments experienced small reductions of up to 2% qo-q. Eastern sub-market (Long Bien and Gia Lam) had asking prices either stable or increase slightly (up to 3% q-o-q), reflecting increasing attention to this area. The ), Western sub-market, on the other hand, presented mixed signals. While Cau Giay & Tu Liem had stable asking prices, Ha Dong seemed to be losing heat with a 2.5% q-o-q reduction. % Demand in the quarter mostly came from end-users, while the rest came from long-term investors who are willing to hold the units until hand-over. Interestingly, Luxury projects in the CBD still gained certain interests buyers. from buyers These projects have small supply (around 200 units per project) at a very high price point (US$4, ,000 psm), offering a symbol of status to its buyers. Such purchase is more an emotional decision . than a carefully-considered investment decision. The landed house sector continued to be quiet, largely due to ongoing unfavourable economic conditions. Secondary asking prices remained the same in 68% projects surveyed and decreased in 22% others compared to Q2. Construction progress looks positive in several projects as developers look to collect payments from buyers to fulfill liabilities with banks. There have been signs of economic improvement but there might be a lag before the real estate sector returns, although actual demand for housing in general remains robust.
2011, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.

Luxury

Condominium Asking Price (US$ psm) Mid-end - Secondary Market Low-end

$3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 2008 2009 2010

High-end

2011

October 2011

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SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

INTERNATIONAL OPERATOR Total Supply (units) New Supply (units) Vacancy Rate (%) market-wide Vacancy Rate (%) (excl. 4 recently completed projects) Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) Q-o-q change (%) Y-o-y change (%) Total Supply (sm)
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f
International operator Self-managed

SELF-MANAGED 1,481 45 17.49% 7.25% $28.35 -0.13% 5.67%

TOTAL 2,367 45 19.56% 8.32% $32.02 2.27% 5.92%

886 0 23.02% 13.12% $39.44 6.42% 3.9%

*4 recently completed projects include Grand Plaza, Hoa Binh Green Apartments, Crowne Plaza and Me Linh Plaza Tower

In the third quarter of 2011, Me Linh Plaza Tower started leasing out its 45 serviced apartments, increasing market supply to 2,367 units. Average asking rents increased by 2% both on sm basis and on unit basis, with strongest increases recorded in the international operator group, after softening in the second quarter. Vacancy slightly decreased on average, mostly due to seasonal trend, from 10.28 28% to 8.32%, not counting four recently completed projects of Grand Plaza, Hoa Binh Green Apartments, Crowne Plaza, and Me Linh Plaza Tower. Marketwise, vacancy was at 19.56%, almost equal to that of the second quarter. Inquiries mostly came from Western and Japanese clients, targeting villas and multiple bedroom apartments. apartments There was also increasing demand from individuals with lower budget of under US$2, ,000, targeting smaller units and buy-to-let apartments. apartments Looking forward, Keangnam scheduled to open in November will provide a large supply of 378 serviced apartment units. The latest supply will face strong competition from buy-to-let apartments that rent out at very competitive rates.

Asking Rents (US$ psm per month)

$50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 2007 2008 2009

International operator Self-managed

2010

2011

October 2011

2011, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.

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OFFICE MARKET
GRADE A Number of buildings NLA (sm) Vacancy rate (%) Q-o-q change (pts) Y-o-y change (pts) Average asking rent (US$ psm per month) Q-o-q change (%) Y-o-y change (%) 14 165,300 4.69% -0.32 -20.63 $39.79 6.26% 1.72% GRADE B 41 415,600 15.77% -1.21 -0.16 $26.28 -2.21% -6.19% GRADE C 57 238,400 TOTAL 112 819,300 -

Vacancy (%)
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010

Grade A Grade B

2011

Asking Rents (US$ psm per month)

Grade A $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010

Grade A Grade B

Grade B

In the third quarter of 2011, the office market in Hanoi still saw strong demand, with net absorption reached nearly 13,000 sm, almost equal to the new supply amount. The market saw strongest lease activities in Grade B offices newly completed in 2011. Our observation also showed that small . office buildings in the West with asking rents of US$18 or below tend to be filled up quicker. Total 18 vacancy of the market dropped to 12.55% this quarter, from 14.80% in the previous quarter. Grade A office vacancy was 4.69% in Q3, a slight decrease from 5.00% in Q2, while Grade B office vacancy saw a larger reduction from almost 17% in Q2 to 15.77% in Q3. In Q3, there was only one new Grade B building came on stream: Han Viet Tower, with 13,000sm net leasable area. This helped to increase total A and B stock in Hanoi to over 580 580,000sm. In Q3, average asking rent of Grade A offices bounced back to almost US$40, after one quarter reduced to US$37.5. The increases were often seen in CBD office buildings. Average asking rent of Grade B offices, on the other hand, continued to slip slightly, from US$26 26.88 in Q2 to US$26.28 in Q3. This decrease happened mostly in old Grade B buildings in mid town and the West area. The last quarter of the year expects the opening of the giant Keangnam Tower; this may affect many smaller office buildings in the West. On the other side of the city starts forming a new submarket: the South area of Hanoi with Han Viet Tower debuted in Q3, the VTC Online Building, the future completion of Mo Market Building, as well as the emerging of the Vincom complex.
October 2011

2011

2011, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.

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RETAIL MARKET
DEPARTMENT STORE Total supply Q3 2011 (NLA, sm) New supply (NLA, sm) Vacancy rate (%) Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) CBD % rent change (y-o-y) % rent change (q-o-q) Non-CBD % rent change (y-o-y) % rent change (q-o-q) Future Supply (000 sm)
1,400
Under construction Under planning

SHOPPING CENTRE 108,190 6,600 16.0% $45.3 $57.8 6.0% -4.7% $37.8 4.8% 0.3%

RETAIL LOBBY 10,310 0 5.8% $44.1 $73.1 11.4% 0.0% $21.0 10.5% 0.0%

TOTAL 134,500 6,600 13.3% $46.4 $59.5 7.2% -4.3% $40.0 5.0% 0.9%

16,000 0 0.0% $54.0 $54.0 0.0% 0.0%

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f

In the third quarter of 2011, the total retail market supply increased mainly due to the opening of Hang Da Galleria Among the total of approximately Galleria. 134,500 sm (NLA) of modern retail space, the 500 opening of Hang DA Galleria contributed 6,600 sm (NLA) to CBDs retail market. Since the fourth floor of Hang Da as well as some spaces in the 2nd and 3rd Da, floor are still vacant, the overall CBD vacancy rate for shopping centres, department stores and retail lobbies stayed at 6.59% (17.15% for non-CBD). The third quarter has further seen the grand opening of Pico Mall in Dong Da District. In terms of rents, the overall market has seen no significant difference compare to the previous quarter. It is nevertheless possible for having lowering rents coming up, as the end of the year sees major contributions in retail space due to finishing projects. The amount of finishing retail space, which enters the market in Q4/2011 and Q1/2012, will increase pressures for future developments, since the market has turned to the favour for tenants. Giving them a greater choice in terms of negotiating for attractive terms and selecting new locations, the current market operates in favour of future tenants. Additionally low consumer spending as well as limited choice of brands will prove to be further challenges, when expecting high rents. Apart from offering promotions and incentives to attract tenants, developers shall furthermore be recommended to focus more on choosing an appropriate tenant mix to match with their overall centre theme.
October 2011

Thousands

Shopping Centre Department Store

Existing Supply by Type

Retail Lobby

08% 12%

81%

2011, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.

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HOTEL MARKET
5- STAR Total supply Q3 2011 (rooms) New supply (rooms) Average Room Rate (US$/night)
% change (y-o-y) % change (q-o-q)

4- STAR 1,750 0 $71.40 -5.90% -1.57% 46.62% -4.72 pp -13.24 pp $31.33 -14.54% -23.33%

3- STAR 2,035 -46 $36.50 2.61% -5.65% 54.51% 2.61 pp -6.88 pp $20.61 8.72% -16.22%

TOTAL 7,696 295 $73.20 -0.56% -5.27% 51.88% -0.56 pp -8.40 pp $31.72 -3.09% -18.46%

3,911 341 $111.60 -4.01% -9.80% 50.91% -3.58 pp -7.09 pp $54.52 -10.32% -20.82%

Average Occupancy Rate (%)

% change (y-o-y) % change (q-o-q)

Revenue per Available Room (US$/night)

% change (y-o-y) % change (q-o-q)

Total Supply (Rooms)

14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

5-star

4-star

3-star

Hanoi received 898,000 international visitor arrivals in the nine months of the year, up 6.7% y-o-y. Domestic arrivals reached 5.3 million, down 8% y-o-y. Besides, that Hanoi ranked the 6th in the list of Asias top ten destinations by Smart Travel Asia is believed to attract more visitors to Hanoi in the coming time. Market supply totals 7,696 rooms, an 18% increase yo-y and 4% increase q-o-q. Additional supply mainly includes the last 318 5-star rooms from Grand Plaza Hanoi. The quarter also witnessed the temporary close of Holidays Hanoi and Asean hotel (in Ngo Si Lien Street). During the quarter, two new projects were announced, including Novotel Ciputra Hanoi (250 5star rooms) and a complex, in Tran Khanh Du Street. The traditionally low season has brought down the average occupancy rates in all segments by 4-5 pp qo-q, except the 3 pp q-o-q increase in the 3-star one. On an y-o-y basis, occupancy in all segments decreased: decreased the 4-star segment by 13 pp and the two 5-star and 3-star ones by 7 pp. This trend was replicated for ADR and RevPAR in each segment on both quarterly and annual basis. Comparing to last year, some hotels showed significant improvements in performance, including Sheraton, Sofitel Metropole, InterContinental Westlake, and Cau Giay hotels etc. Thanks to the traditionally high season as at year end, performance might improve between 5-10 pp in both market average occupancy and ADR. In the coming time, the 3-star segment will remain attractive to both visitors and developers. The 4-star and 5-star segments, on the other hand will have to struggle to maintain an acceptable margin.
October 2011

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f

Average Daily Rates (US$ per room per night)

$160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 2009 2010

5-star

4-star

3-star

2011

2011, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.

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LEGAL UPDATES
THIS SECTION IS CONTRIBUTED BY BAKER & McKENZIE (VIETNAM) LIMITED
DISCLAIMER: This Legal Update is intended to provide our readers with information on recent legal developments and issues of significant interest. It should not be regarded as legal advice or the opinion of Baker & McKenzie (Vietnam) Limited and no decisions regarding the subject matters discussed should be taken without consulting qualified advisors.

More strict supervision on real estate project in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The Ministry of Planning and Investment ("MPI in its letter No. 5543/BKHDT-DTNN dated August MPI"), MPI 24, 2011 ("the Letter has requested that the People's Committees of Ha Noi and Ho Chi Minh Letter"), City coordinate their plan on verifying and appraising the issuance of FDI real estate projects in these two major cities. According to the letter, the People's Committees of Ho Chi Minh City and Ha Noi must request real estate FDI enterprises, which have been issued with the Investment Certificate or Investment License, to report on the progress of their project implementation regarding:

The capital contributed by each investor; Domestic and overseas loans and capital mobilized from clients; The progress of project implementation in each category category; Land leased situation; total area approved in-principally; total area obtained in the Land Handling Over Decision; total area granted with the Land Use Rights Certificate; total area used; total area used without obtaining the Land Handling Over Decision; Business background: losses/profits; taxes paid; land leased payments; etc. Labor information; and Other comments and suggestions from the enterprises enterprises.

Based on the results from the consolidated reports from these two cities, which should be completed this September, a multi-branch delegation shall conduct several field investigations, focusing on projects that have been at a loss during the last three years, big-scale projects and/or large landused projects. This information is an alert for any FDI real estate projects and enterprises which have not complied fully with the provisions in their Investment License or Investment Certificate (especially regarding the project implementation progress) and/or investment regulations and/or real estate and land regulations. After its investigation, the multi-branch delegation may propose to revoke the branch Investment License or Investment Certificate from such projects/enterprises.

October 2011

2011, CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.

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Central Business District (CBD) The Central Business District in Hanoi is Hoan Kiem District and a portion of Hai Ba Trung District, the commercial and tourism centre. The developing business district in the West is located on the border of Cau Giay and Tu Liem Districts. Major developments are clustered along Pham Hung. Interest Rate The base rate set by the SBV is used as a reference by other banks and financial institutions.

For more information regarding this MarketView or to find out more about any aspect of our services, please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. RESEARCH & CONSULTING Marc Townsend, Managing Director m. 84 903 006 790 e. marc.townsend@cbre.com Nguyen Thanh Tuyen, Associate Director m. 84 904 193 292 e. tuyen.nguyen@cbre.com Nguyen Minh Tuan, Associate Director m. 84 903 469 786 e. minhtuan.nguyen@cbre.com Ngoc Le, Publications Manager m. 84 908 6666 35 e. ngoc.le@cbre.com

The discount rate is the interest rate which the SBV charges member banks for short-term loans via discounting commercial paper or other debt instruments. The refinancing rate is the interest rate that the SBV charges on loans to member banks. Net Lettable Area (NLA) Net Lettable Area of whole floors include toilets and lift lobbies, but exclude common areas such as lift shafts, stairs and plant rooms. Net Lettable Area for sub-divided units is the Saleable Area of that unit plus a proportionate share of the communal toilets, lift lobbies and passageways among subdivided units on that floor. Net Absorption Net Absorption figures represent the net increase in occupied floor space in the period. The figures are arrived at using the following method:

Hanoi

Net Absorption = new completions + vacancy figures at the beginning of period - demolition - vacancy figures at period-end Rent Rent is quoted as the average asking rent, without accounting for any incentives. Rents are stated in US$ per square metre (psm) as well as in those terms gross or net, inclusive (including management fees and/or property taxes) or exclusive (excluding management fees and property taxes) that are customarily employed in the respective sector. Rents or average room rates are quoted on the following basis: Office: Asking rents, NLA, exclusive of VAT and inclusive of service charges Retail: Asking rents, NLA, exclusive of VAT and inclusive of service charges Serviced Apartments: Asking rents, NLA, inclusive of VAT and service charges Residential Supply Existing supply: is the total number of units that have been handed over for occupation. New completion: the total number of units that were handed over for occupation in the review quarter these are added to existing supply.
2011 CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

New launch: the number of units that were released to the market by developers (official start of sales for a project) in the review quarter. All units in each development are included in the calculations, however, the developer may divide sales into numerous phases and thus not all units may come online at launch date.