A 9.0-Magnitude Quake Will Destroy Metro Manila and Kill At Least 5.

53-million Inhabitants Even Without a Tsunami Following It

Part I of the Series, Filipino Armageddon By Lolo Bobby M. Reyes of Sorsogon City and West Covina,California A Filipino Nostradamus Has Predicted that Metro Manila, If Not the Country Itself, Would Become a Land ofDesolation Unless Since September 2005, this writer has been bugging the Filipino national policy-anddecision makers to prepare for massive calamities such as typhoons and earthquakes. I have suggested earthquake-preparedness and disaster-mitigation training, inspection of buildings and retrofitting them to withstand seismic upheavals and organizing disaster-response teams equipped with the right tools and resources. But to no avail. My latest assertion that a 9.0-magnitutde earthquake would result in the destruction of ALL buildings and infrastructures in Metro Manila has logical basis. Then-Philippine Secretary of National Defense Norberto Gonzales said on June 18, 2010, that a 7.2magnitude earthquake would result in more-than 3,000 deaths in Metro Manila. To read Secretary Gonzales warning, please click on this link: It Is Just a Question of WHEN a Big Quake Will Devastate Areas in the Philippines, which carries also hyperlinks to my other articles about the forecast big quake happening in the Philippines main metropolis and/or other urban centers. News Update: The Philippine Daily Inquirer reported Monday, March 14, 2011, that about 34,000 people (would be) dead instantly and 24,000 dead or dying in the rubble. About 110,000 injured and needing immediate treatment. Five hundred fires raging simultaneously. Metro Manila faces these and several other horrific scenes should a 7.2-magnitude earthquake hit the countrys most populous urban area, according to a report released by Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PSA), a multinational firm doing intelligence work for clients on business and security in the Philippines." The Latest Earthquake in Japan Has Been Upgraded to 9.0 in Intensity and Revised Estimates Put Casualties at More-than 10,000 Deaths The Los Angeles Times reported that Fridays earthquake off the eastern coast of Japan was upgraded to a magnitude 9.0 by the Japan Meteorological Agency. It also said in the same report that in the system describing earthquake strength, each whole-point in magnitude from 6.0 to 7.0, for example means almost 32 times more energy was released. A two-point jump signals in increase of about 1,024 (32 X 32) times the energy.

To read the Los Angeles Times report, Quake shifted Earth on its axis, in its entirety, please click on this hyperlink, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-scijapan-quake-science-20110313,0,5782113.story Extrapolating Secretary Gonzales Estimate The Los Angeles Times reported that Fridays earthquake off the eastern coast of Japan was upgraded to a magnitude 9.0 by the Japan Meteorological Agency. If a 9.0-magnitude earthquake hits Metro Manila, there would be an increase in energy strength of 1.8-magnitude (or nearly a two-point jump) from the 7.2-magnitude earthquake mentioned by then-Defense Secretary Gonzales. According to the Wikipedia, as of the 2007 census, it (Metro Manila) had a population of 11,553,427, comprising 13% of the national population.[2] Including suburbs in the adjacent provinces (Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal) of Greater Manila, the population is around 20 million.[5][6] Secretary Gonzales predicted that more-than 3,000 individuals would die if Metro Manila were hit by a 7.2-magnitude quake. If the earthquake would have the strength of the latest temblor inJapan, then approximately 5.530-million persons (rounded off) might perish. This total is arrived at by multiplying 3,000 X 1,843.20 (1.8 X 32 X 32). This means that more-than one-fourth of all residents in Metro Manila and the adjacent provinces will perish should a 9.0-magnitude quake will occur. And even without a tsunami from the depths of Manila Bay following it. If a 30-foot or taller tsunami follows the Big Quake, then all bets are off on the number of casualties. Since Secretary Gonzales did not just arrive at his figure of more-than 3,000 deaths by plucking it out of thin air, then extrapolating his figure should give chills to the residents of, and visitors to, the National Capital Region of the Philippines. A Filipino Nostradamus The Filipino people and their leaders should perhaps take seriously the series of articles on earthquakes and other calamities that I have written. Why? On Aug. 31, 2009, I published an essay entitled, A Biblical Vision Says the Philippines Will Lie in Fallow until 2016 and then Filipinos Will Build New Cities on Hills I actually wrote most of the said essay a few years back but I decided to publish it only on the last day of August 2009. I distributed hardcopies of the said essay to the members of the Media Breakfast Club (MBC) on Sept. 23, 2009, a Wednesday. Some MBC members laughed about my prediction that soon The Imperial Manila, if not the Philippines, would become a land of desolation.

As I related in Part II of the essay, Some People Are No Longer Laughing at A Biblical Vision of the Philippines, the same MBC members stopped mocking my vision. Here is what I wrote in Part II: Three days later (and 26 days after the article was first posted online), tropical storm codenamed internationally as Ketsana (Ondoy) unleashed the deadly flooding of Metro Manila and some 25 other adjacent or nearby provinces. As the clich says, The rest is history . . . Several MBC members called this writer and they said the Biblical vision about the Philippines might probably be right. After the Ondoy tragedy, some MBC members called this writer the Filipino Nostradamus. I did not relish the moniker. Perhaps my vision was just a coincidence. But then on July 19, 2010, at 0737H (Pacific Standard Time), this writer posted this article, It Is Just a Question of WHEN a Big Quake Will Devastate Areas in the Philippines Less-than four days and 12 hours later, a series of four earthquakes hit Moro Gulf, off the Island of Mindanaos CotabatoCity. Another coincidence? Readers can examine my warning in this article: Series of Earthquakes on July 24 Validates Bobby Reyes Warning Posted Less-than Five Days Earlier I have described in earlier articles about my vision that after a major natural calamity, the Laguna de Bay lake would merge with the Manila Bay and become just one single body of water. I do not when it will occur but God, Allah and Buddha forbid that it happens. I wrote more articles in the hope that somehow Divine Providence would intervene and not let the foretold vision become a reality. If only the Filipino national policy-anddecision makers and the Filipino people would help themselves first in mitigating the effects of the calamity should it happen, then perhaps the Filipino version of the Armageddon will not happen. But then even if it happens, the Almighty helps only those who help themselves. Here are some of the follow-up articles: Can We Attribute the Homelands Desolation, Destitution, Chaos, Filth, Stench, Etc., Etc., to the Filipinos Lack of Spirituality? The Bahay Kubo Mentality and Government Neglect, If Not Stupidity and Cluelessness, Are to Blame for Storm-caused Deaths and Destruction (To be continued . . .) http://www.mabuhayradio.com/ecology-and-the-environment/a-9-0-magnitude-quakewill-destroy-metro-manila-and-kill-at-least-5-53-million-inhabitants-even-without-atsunami-following-it

How and Why a 9.0-magnitude Quake May Wipe Out Metro Manila and Cause 5.530-million Deaths
Part II of the Series, Filipino Armageddon By Lolo Bobby M. Reyes of Sorsogon City and West Covina,California Several readers phoned or e-mailed this writer and they said that it is hard to believe my contention that a magnitude 9.0 earthquake might completely wipe out Metro Manila and cause at least 5.53-million deaths and severe injuries to millions of survivors. The National Capitol Region (NCR) area and its neighboring provinces have more-than 20-million in population. It will not take rocket science to find facts that will back up my contention. It will only take an Elementary, Mr. Watson kind of presentation and argumentation. In Part I of this series, I extrapolated an estimate of then-Philippine Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales that a 7.2-magnitude quake would cause the deaths of some 3,000 individuals. On the other hand, the Philippine Daily Inquirer (PDI) reported the estimate made by the Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PAS), which assumed the death toll at some 58,000 individuals on the same 7.2-magnitude earthquake. It will boggle the mind if we extrapolate the PAS estimates, as presented by the PDI. So, for purposes of this thesis, we will consider only the low-casualty estimate of Secretary Gonzales. The Philippine Daily Inquirer published in its March 14, 2011, issue this article: Are Filipinos prepared for the Big One? URL: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20110314-325294/ Are-Filipinos-prepared-for-the-Big-One Here are the Inquirer articles first-3 paragraphs: About 34,000 people dead instantly and 24,000 dead or dying in the rubble. About 110,000 injured and needing immediate treatment. Five hundred fires raging simultaneously. Metro Manila faces these and several other horrific scenes should a 7.2-magnitude earthquake hit the countrys most populous urban area, according to a report released by a multinational firm doing intelligence work for clients on business and security in the Philippines. Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PSA) said in its report onMetro Manilas quake vulnerability that while quakes were normal occurrences in the metropolis, the effects of a 7.2-magnitude tremor were likely to be made more terrifying by a lack of preparedness and failure to enforce zoning laws and building standards.

How and Why the Deaths, Injuries and Destruction Would Occur Here are some of the arguments how and why a 9.0-magnitude earthquake in Metro Manila may become the mother of all natural disasters in the history of the world: 1.0 The PSA correctly stated that there is virtually no effort by Philippinegovernment national and local-government units (LGUs) to do systematic and periodic earthquake-preparation education and drills. And because their government cannot afford to do it, Filipinos are not provided with crash helmets and earthquake-survival supplies that include, among other items, hand-cranked cell phones, flashlights, blankets and first-aid kits as practiced inJapan. The LGUs do very-lax enforcement of zoning laws and building standards. Many tall buildings even the modern skyscrapers in the City of Makati have not incorporated in their design and construction the state-of-the-art seismic-engineering features such as the edifice resting on foundations that have giant steel coils that enable the structure to bounce and flex when the quake comes instead of staying rigid, as in the old designs. These coils are similar in design to the automotive suspension coils. Just like what happened to the poorly-constructed RubyTower in the Binondo District of Manila, which collapsed after a 7.3-magnitude earthquake hit Aurora Province (epicenter of which was in Casiguran town) on Aug. 2, 1968. It is projected that many of the buildings in the NCR will experience the same Ruby-Tower pan-cake effect. Readers may like to read the causes of the Ruby Tower tragedy in this article, RP Must Undertake EarthquakeEducation and Retrofitting Programs In View of Recent Quake-caused Disasters. 2.1 It is highly-probable that almost ALL bridges, flyovers and elevated expressways, including the Light Rail Transit (LRT), in the NCR will collapse. It has been said that even in California where almost all the bridges, flyovers and other highway infrastructures have been retrofitted, all of them will suffer major damages if a 9.0-magnitude temblor occurs. But theCalifornia drivers and pedestrians will have a more-than-even chance of surviving the quakes initial burst of energy and its aftershocks. Can the same be said for the old-andantiquated infrastructures in the NCRthat have not been retrofitted at all?

2.0

3.0

Metro Manila and the entire country do not have the sufficient fire-fighting equipment and very-few buildings have the fire-sprinkler system in place. And the water-pressure in fire hydrants is usually very low, if water is available at all. The countrys police and military have very-few helicopters that can be used in rescuing victims during disasters and even in day-to-day crisis that does not involve natural-calamity emergencies.

The country does not have even a single tanker-airplane or helicopter that can scoop water from a lake or the ocean and dump it on a raging fire. 3.1 The impotency of the Philippine national-government agencies and LGUs in dealing with disasters was demonstrated in September 2009 when Typhoon Ondoy, a relatively-weak typhoon, hit Metro Manila. To review the tragic inability of the Philippine government to handle disasters was pointed out by Time Magazinein this article, Philippine Floods: Why Wasn't ManilaPrepared? - TIME

h ttp ://w w w .ti me .co m/ti me /w o rl d /a rti cl e /0 ,8 5 9 9 ,1 9 2 6 6 4 6 ,0 0 .h tml ? xid=thepage_newsletter 3.2 The PAS has estimated the number of fires at 500 that will rage uncontrollably when a 7.2-magnitude earthquake hits Metro Manila. The number will be like 5,000, minimum, should a 9.0-magnitude quake hit theNCR. 3.2.1 Many of the individual (detached) homes in theNCR are made of light materials such as wood and corrugated galvanized-iron sheets, especially in the squatter or poorer areas. The houses in these areas will be like matchboxes exploding in flames, once the liquefied-petroleum gas (LPG) in steel cylinders start to blow up in kitchens and even in restaurants (as the NCRhas very-few piped-in gas connections running underneath the streets). As the fires spread from street to street as many of the houses and smaller buildings do not have fire walls and designated "fire zones" there will be mass chaos in the NCR. Even many of the highly-trained Japanese urban residents panicked initially and only recovered their muchvaunted discipline immediately after the Big One passed. How much more in the Philippines where people are said to lack national discipline?

3.2.2

3.3

As injured survivors trickle in to land-based hospitals if the are able physically to walk to them or if they can be brought at all by helicopters or ambulances many of them will die, as nearly all of the medical facilities will be damaged and made inoperable by the quake. The country does not operate hospital ships and its armed forces and police do not have highly-organized medical corps with resources like battlefield medical tents and mobile-surgical facilities. Many of the injured will die unattended by medical personnel and/or by the lack of medical supplies.

3.3.1

This writer wrote in September 2005 to then-President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo about the need to procure hospital ships from the United States but she totally disregarded my suggestion. Readers can browse this article about it: Gloria Arroyo Misses a Golden Opportunity to Create a Worldclass Legacy of Leadership in Disaster Relief by Operating Hospital Ships

4.0

The projected deaths of 5.530-million residents of, and/or visitors to, the NCR does not even presume the coming of a tsunami within an immediate time frame after the quake happens. If a tsunami comes, all bets are off on the number of casualties and injured. 4.1 Many areas in the NCR and adjacent provinces are below sea level. The deadly effects of a tsunami will be quantified by the terrain of Manila and suburbs. As I wrote before when and if the sea level goes up by some 20 feet or even less because of Global Warming the Laguna de Bay, the seven lakes of San Pablo City (Laguna) and the Manila Bay would become one body of water. The scenario may happen by 2050, if Al Gore and Company are right. A tsunami can make my prediction an instant reality. Heres why . . . 4.2.1 The tsunami in the March 11, 2011, quake inJapan traveled more-than six miles from the sea shore. From the beach in Las Pias City to theSouth Expressway/Sucat Road intersection is less-than three miles. At the end of that intersection, the ground drops by about 20 feet, which is actually the level of Laguna de Bay. All the sea water from Manila Bay that the tsunami will move at the speed of approximately 500 miles per hour and pour into the lower level and then proceed to swallow the low lands all the way to the nearby Laguna de Bay (a lake) and probably reach San Pablo City. Then the water rushes back to Manila Bay, presumably carrying also the waters of the eight lakes. The deadly scenario is beyond description by mortal writers. To revisit the original article about the coming union of the waters of Laguna de Bay, the lakes in San Pablo City and Manila Bay, please click on this link: Global-warming Articles Not Meant to Destroy RP Property Values If Metro Manila Will Be Under Water

4.2

4.2.2

4.2.3

There is an attachment to the said article in the preceding sub-paragraph, including a link to this map: http:// flood.firetree.net/?ll=14.5091,121.0144&z=9 The above is a Flood Simulation Map for Metro Manila. Select the Flood level (in meters) to see how an area is affected. The darker colored areas would be the areas under water. You can also DRAG and PAN the image map to select a larger overview or a more detailed look of a specific area. Click on the plus and minus icons to zoom in or out (or double-click). This map was suggested by Architect Nat Dueas of Redwood City, CA, and Iloilo City Data from the NASA app from http://flood.firetree.net

Because of bad topographical features, the NCR is a prime candidate of becoming the scene of the mother of all natural disasters should an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 to 9.0 happens, with or without a tsunami following the temblor. By next installment of this series, this writer will discuss how the Filipino people and their national-and-LGU leaders can prepare for such an eventuality and mitigate the predicted deadly effects of the calamity. In the meantime, here is a report about the 9.0-magnitude quake in Japan, which is Asias richest nation and supposedly the most-prepared country in the world in dealing with earthquakes and tsunamis. If it could happen to Japan, how can it not happen in the Philippines, when both are in the same Pacific Ring of Fire? Eighty-percent of earthquakes and 90-% of tsunamis happen in the Ring of Fire. Japan sits on an area where the Philippine Plate meets with the Pacific and Eurasian Plates. Here is the report . . . Japan Begins To Dig For Dead Amid Nuclear Crisis Rescue workers used chain saws and hand picks Monday to dig out bodies in Japan's devastated coastal towns, asAsia's richest nation faced a mounting humanitarian, nuclear and economic crisis in the aftermath of a massive earthquake and tsunami that likely killed thousands. "People are surviving on little food and water. Things are simply not coming," said Hajime Sato, a government official in Iwate prefecture, one of the three hardest hit. He said authorities were receiving just 10-percent of the food and other supplies they need. Even body bags and coffins are running so short the government may turn to foreign funeral homes for help, he said. "We have requested funeral homes across the nation to send us many body bags and coffins. But we simply don't have enough," he told The Associated Press. "We just did not expect such a thing to happen. It's just overwhelming."

To read more reports about the Japanese tragic earthquake, please click this link: h ttp ://w w w .h u ffi n g to n p o s t.c o m /2 0 1 1 /0 3 /1 3 /fu k u s h i m a - e x p l o s i o n - j a p a n nuclear_n_835202.html?icid=maing|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk2|49886 (To be continued . . .) http://www.mabuhayradio.com/ecology-and-the-environment/how-and-why-a-9-0magnitude-quake-may-wipe-out-metro-manila-and-cause-5-530-million-deaths

Mother Nature Has Spared Metro Manila of Big Quake As It Has Been the Epicenter Only in 1658 and 1771
Part III of the Series, Filipino Armageddon By Lolo Bobby M. Reyes of Sorsogon City and West Covina,California The Philippine Volcanology and Seismology Agency (PHILVOCS) says that results of several trenching-excavation surveys at (Metro Manilas) West Valley Fault (WVF) and the East Valley Fault (EVF) indicate that at least two or perhaps four large surfacerupturing events have occurred (in Metro Manila) since AD 600. The PHILVOCS made their findings in a 2003 study called, Phivocs Philippines Manila Earthquake Damage Scenario The said study is mentioned in these hyperlinks: http://propinoy.net/2011/03/12/cnn-anna-coren-manilas-earthquake-stats-purposelyhidden-from-public/ http://propinoy.net/2011/03/14/phivocs-philippines-manila-earthquake-damagescenario/ http://www.scribd.com/doc/50673051/Phivocs-Philippines-Manila-EarthquakeDamage-Scenario The PHILVOCS continued to say that the recurrence interval of the earthquakes generated is less-than 500 years. It has been suggested that the 1658 and 1771 earthquakes could be candidate events for the EVF. However, no event along the WVF is known. If no earthquake had occurred at the WVF after the 16thcentury, then the earthquake occurrence along the WVF becomes a serious threat. (Please note that the City of Makatilies in the WVF.)

The Big Quake Is Long Overdue in Metro Manila Mero Manila has two major fault lines: the WVF and the EVF. The EVF runs north to south along the west and east edges of the Marikina Valley. The Phivocs Philippines Manila Earthquake Damage Scenariostudy says further that as for the source fault of these earthquakes, M. L. P. Bautista (2000) has supposed (the) EVF (in Marikina Valley) as the source fault of the 1658 and 1771 event, (the) Infanta (in Quezon Province) Segment of the Philippine Fault Zone (PFZ) as the source fault of the 1880 event and (the) Laguna-Banahaw Fault that runs north to south along the east coast of Laguna Lake as the source fault of (the) 1937 event. The report further states that in the 36 hazardous earthquakes, only the 1677 event and the 1863 event have the description of tsunami around Metro Manila. Per the PHILVOCS study, the strongest earthquakes in the islandof Luzon happened in 1645 (7.9-magnitude) and in 1990 (7.8-magnitude) but both temblors did not have their epicenter in Metro Manila. The 1990 quakes epicenter was in Northern Luzon, close to Baguio City. Since 1900, (as found in the studys Table 2.1.1) there were more-than 30 earthquakes that caused some damage to Metro Manila but their respective epicenter was far from the National Capitol Region (NCR). The PHILVOCS study stated also that Metro Manila will suffer from fire that would burn down some 1,700 hectares of land and kill 19,300 people in the event of the earthquake because there are so many wooden buildings and hazardous facilities. Presumably the PHILVOCS was talking of a 7.0 to 7.2-magnitude earthquake, which apparently is the number contained in almost all studies about earthquakes in the NCR. Another Study About Metro Manila The www.emi-megacities.org has done also a study about Metro Manila and the City of Makati, in particular, to wit: QUOTE. Metro Manila, Philippines Makati City, Metro Manila Makati City is one of the 16 cities and 1 municipality comprising Metro Manila. It has a total land area of 27.36 km2 or about 4.3% of the regions land area. Its total population is 471,379 as of NSO2000 Census, with a density of 17,229 persons per square kilometer. The citys daytime population is estimated to reach at around 1.2million with transient workers from adjacent cities and municipalities, tourists, businessmen and the like flock the city for business and leisure.

Among the major disaster risks faced by the city is earthquake. Makati City lies within the West Valley Fault System where large tectonic movements can release seismic energy. An earthquake from this origin could severely affect the citys central business districts, affecting high-rise office buildings, commercial centers, residential areas and the like. The Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) showed that with a 7.8 magnitude earthquake scenario hitting the city, around 8,918 or 17% of all the buildings will be heavily damaged while around 16,374 (32.5%) will be partly damaged. Expected casualties can rise to 12,000 individuals while 4,000 will be injured. The fire damage in this scenario can cover 116 hectares with 49,000 buildings projected to be burnt down affecting 1,600 people. Aware of these imminent risks, the Makati City Government created the Makati City Disaster Coordinating Council, pursuant to Presidential Decree 1566the national framework for disaster risk management. The city provides programs, projects and activities on preparedness, mitigation, operational response and recovery in emergency situations. It also ensures effective coordination of resources and operatives to, during and after disasters. For more information, please visit www.cityriskpedia.com. http://www.emi-megacities.org/projects/index.php? o p ti o n = c o m _ c o n te n t& v i e w = a r ti c l e & i d = 5 1 :m e tr o - m a n i l a & c a ti d = 3 7 :c i ty profiles&Itemid=67 UNQUOTE. The United Nations Advisory on the Philippines According to the website, www.pinoyambisyoso.com, the United Nations has advised the Philippines to prepare for a big earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or even higher. Here are the links to its article: Big Earthquake to Hit Metro Manila Anytime | Pinoy Ambisyoso http://pinoyambisyoso.com/news/big-earthquake-hit-metro-manila/ (To be continued . . .)

How Filipinos Can Mitigate the Unimaginable Damages that a Mother of Natural Disasters Will Cause
Part IV of the Series, Filipino Armageddon By Lolo Bobby M. Reyes of Sorsogon City and West Covina,California ..As if you're waiting for a mishap to happen naman. If we stay positive, ask God's forgiveness and change people's bad ways I know everyone will be spared.. Virgie Novenario-Atienza Thus, Virgie Novanario-Atienza, a New Jersey-based granddaughter of Filipino revolutionary hero Don Belong de los Reyes, posted in the Facebook, after she read Part III of this series. This writer replied to Ms. Virgie, who is a first cousin of his wife, Ceny de los Reyes: While we can ask God to spare us from any calamity, the Almighty helps those who help themselves. You can read the suggested ways in Part 4 of my series on how we can mitigate the disastrous effects of the Big One, if it comes in our lifetime. Thanks for reading my essays, Bobby. This series started with this writers assertion, if not a fearless forecast, that A 9.0Magnitude Quake Will Destroy Metro Manila and Kill At Least 5.53-million Inhabitants Even Without a Tsunami Following It. Metro Manila has been lucky so far in avoiding a big quake (and as stated in Part III), the last time a temblors epicenter was in its Eastern Valley Fault was in 1771. Prior to that year, another quakes epicenter was located in the National Capitol Region (NCR) in 1658. One-hundred thirteen years elapsed between 1658 and 1771. Yes, 240 years have passed between 1771 and this year. That is too long a time and pressure builds up in the earths faults as the years go by. Whether we like it or not, a time will come when the pressure steadily building up in the NCRs faults will just be released, like steam is released in a pressure cooker. The Big One can come any day now. It can come today. Or tomorrow. Or 20 or 30 years from now. A Filipino Version of The Manhattan Project Here are again the suggested ways that the Filipino people and their government can do to prepare with the urgency of a Filipino version of The Manhattan Project for the coming of the Big One (as discussed primarily in this article, RP Must Undertake Earthquake-Education and Retrofitting Programs In View of Recent Quake-caused Disasters):

1.0

The people must not wait for their government, especially the localgovernment units (LGU), to implement Earthquake Education and Preparedness Program (E2P2). 1.1 As done in California and other states in the United States, the Philippines must undertake a crash E2P2 with public-and-private schools, parishes or congregations and business firms grabbing the initiative and organizing themselves further by establishing local emergency shelters complete with survival gears and first-aid (medical) provisions. The schools, parishes and congregations (SPC) must organize also their own volunteer fire brigades, search-and-rescue and/or disasteremergency teams, so as not to rely on national-government agencies (NGA) or LGU to help them when disaster strikes. In the first place, the NGA and/or the LGU may not be able also to respond immediately as a catastrophic earthquake will virtually render most roads and bridges impassable. The SPC and private firms must conduct quarterly drills, so as to make perfect their local-evacuation plans and the E2P2.

1.2

1.3 2.0

The tenants of edifices, as may be assisted by LGU or NGA inspectors, must engage the services of structural engineers to inspect all buildings and infrastructures, identify the so-called brittle buildings, whether owned by private landlords or public entities and recommend ways and means to reduce the risks. This step will naturally include a review of architecturaldesign records and on-site inspections, if not testing of structural components. 2.1 Doing the building inspection and retrofitting programs will minimize damage and destruction when and if a strong earthquake or other natural disaster hits the homeland. The recommended programs can make the edifices and people working or living in them have better odds of surviving massive quakes or other natural calamities. There should be a law that mandates the diversion of the office or apartment rentals to an Inspection-and-Retrofitting Fund when the building owners refuse to participate in the said activity. The Philippine government and the private sector must tap local and Overseas-Filipino research scientists, engineers, educators, and the civil service to bridge the many gaps between earthquake research, emergency management, and the general publics training and capability before it is too late.

2.2

2.3

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When estimates for retrofitting programs may be more-costly than in constructing new edifices, then a proposed consortium of publicand-private owners and the insurance industry may devise ways and means of funding the replacement of the brittle buildings with new quake-resistant edifices that are built with the latest state-of-the-art designs and construction methods. There should be a new law that mandates the use of carbon-fiber meshes in wrapping concrete columns and walls, so as to hold them when the building is shaken during earthquakes or typhoons.

2.5

3.0

Funding the E2P2 and the Building Inspection-and-Retrofitting Program (BIRP) 3.1 The public must force the national policy-and-decision makers to use entirely the congressional pork-barrel expenditures of more-than PHPesos 32-billion (spelled with a B and worth about US$800million @ $1:PHP 40) per annum to be used exclusively for the E2P2 and the BIRP. Doing this suggestion will boost the Philippine economy and in a matter of 10 years, the expenditure of 320-billion pesos will dramatically change the survival chance of people living in theNCR and other urban centers of the country. 3.1.1 The countrys college and high-school students must lead the public in forcing the end of the congressional pork barrel and using the funds instead for the E2P2 and the BIRP. 3.2 The recommended fund of PHPesos 32-billion per year can be increased by levying owners of private buildings, which will be replaced with quake-resistant edifices, with mandatory contributions to the said fund. The Overseas-Filipino communities may be persuaded to buy bonds for the said E2P2 and the BIRP. There will be more incentives for the Filipino expatriates if the assistance of multinational and multilateral agencies is secured in form of grants or outright assistance in technology and/or equipment. There should be a crash program to build first earthquake-proof new homes at more-secure (elevated) sites for the families of the NCRs (and other urban centers) police, fire and military personnel. Why? As had happened in New Orleans, LA, during the Hurricane Katrina tragedy, many of the so-called First Responders resigned at the height of the emergency, as they had to take care first of their own families. By securing the safety and comfort of the families of the First Responders will allow them to concentrate in doing their jobs for the security and safety of the general public.

3.3

3.4

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There are other steps in generating more funding (for instance by cutting down on government waste and devoting the savings to the E2P2 and BIRP) and mechanisms that would balance the technical issues with the need to generate a political will among the people and their leaders (political issues). 4.1 Perhaps the President of the Philippines must convene a morerepresentative type of a National Emergency Calamity Council (NECC), which will be tasked to coordinate with the private sector, including representatives from churches, congregations, landlords and business owners. The NECC can then proceed to make operational the suggestions in this series with the urgency of a Filipino version of The Manhattan Project.

4.2

What If the Big One Hits Metro Manila and Its Dams Collapse as a Tsunami Rolls in from Manila Bay?
Part V of the Series, Filipino Armageddon By Lolo Bobby M. Reyes of Sorsogon City and West Covina,California Should the Filipino People and their Government Not Heed the Advice and Warning of Engr. Mon Ramirez? ..Can these dams withstand a Japan 3-11 earthquake and not crumble down and flood the communities downstream like a tsunami?.. Engr. Mon Ramirez Thus, under the heading Earthquakes and dams, Mon Ramirez, a University of the Philippines (UP) trained engineer, posted on the Facebook last Monday, March 14, 2011, at 5:26 p.m.: We have no nuclear power plant but we have more than 30 hydropower plants with their associated dams that supply most of our electricity in combination with some geothermal plants and fossil-powered plants. Can these dams withstand a Japan 3-11 earthquake and not crumble down and flood the communities downstream like a tsunami? Two years ago, during a storm, when San Roque dam had to suddenly release some water, the devastation and deaths in the Pangasinan were record high. The warning system did not work well, too, resulting in more deaths. Maybe today is the best time for the government and engineers and scientists to take a truly hard look at these dams and review contingencies if there are any in place. So far we have been quite lucky with just those minor earthquakes.

Today, Engineer Ramirez posted also in his Facebook page a notification about a FORUM on Earthquake, Tsunami and Nukes that will be held at the UP Balay Kalinaw on March 23, Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. I requested Mon Ramirez to tell the forum participants about my series on the Filipino Armageddon, including this Part V, which starts with a quote from him. He replied that he would bring it to the attention of the people attending the forum. Metro Manila Dams and Reservoirs Mon Ramirez has a very-good point from the technical viewpoint. His advice for the government, (private-sectors) engineers and scientists to inspect the dams and review the contingencies can be considered a moral imprimatur to this series of articles. The National Capitol Region (NCR) and the adjoining provinces of Bulacan and Rizal have four dams: the Laiban, the Angat, Ipo and the La Mesa. Metro Manila has also the Balara reservoir. The Laiban Dam is still being constructed and is due to be finished in 2015. It is located in Tanay town of Rizal Province, which is now part of the NCR. Many towns in Bulacan Province are now parts of the NCR. Bulacan is the site of the 44-year-old Angat Dam (located in Norzagaray town, which was finished in 1967). It is a rockfill-type of a dam. It has also the 27-year-old Ipo Dam (located just a few kilometers before the Angat Dam) and which was completed in 1984. The Ipo is a gravity-concrete dam. There is also the La Mesa Dam located in the Novaliches District of Quezon City, which is the biggest component of the NCR in land area. It is a so-called earth dam that was erected in 1929 (82-years ago) and occupies an area of 27-square kilometers. It was improved and its level was raised in 1959 (52-years ago). It has now a water capacity of 50.5-million cubic meters. Quezon City has also the Balara Water-Treatment Plant, which is actually a reservoir that has an original capacity of 25-million liters. A new reservoir was built in 2008, so as to increase the capacity to 45-million liters. The La Mesa Dam contains also a water-treatment facility. Several aqueducts connect the Balara and La Mesa infrastructures. More technical information about the dams and reservoirs of Metro Manila can be found in www.manilawater.com. The Concerns of Engineer Ramirez W hat if a 9.0-magnitude quake hits the NCR and the four dams and the Balara reservoir and their aqueducts all suffer massive structural damages and all of their waters are released violently just as a tsunami rolls in from the nearby Manila Bay?

And what if the waters generated by the tsunami, when they recede to the Manila Bay, carry also the waters of Laguna de Bay and the waters from the four dams and one reservoir? Will it will be like three floods combining to form one big catastrophic event the mother of all tsunamis? (The shocking scenario involves the Laguna de Bay, the NCRs inland, and thePhilippines biggest, lake, as stated in Part II of this series, forming a single body of water with Manila Bay.) Laguna de Bays "surface area is 949 square kilometers and has an average depth of only about 2 meters. The lake is shaped like a stylised 'W', with two peninsulas jutting out from the northern shore. Between these peninsulas, the middle lobe fills a large volcanic caldera. Laguna de Bay drains to Manila Bay via thePasig River." (Source of the data is the Wikipedia.) Should the Philippine national government, the NCR local-government units (LGU) and the people not heed Engineer Ramirezs suggestion? Additional Concern of Mon Ramirez Today, Engineer Ramirez posted this message in the Facebook: If you have read the studies of the Russian institute, their studies say that major earthquakes will occur in the two weeks starting March 19. Now, TV news here says there was an earthquake yesterday in the Ilocos region. Today the earthquake was near Metro Manila. But they are of moderate intensity. Here is the link to the report on the studies. http://www.realnewsreporter.com/?p=843. (To be continued . . .)

By Lolo Bobby M. Reyes of Sorsogon City and West Covina,California

Filipino Armageddon

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