URBANIZATION

Nigeria Table of Contents

Throughout Africa societies that had been predominantly rural for most of their history
were experiencing a rapid and profound reorientation of their social and economic lives
toward cities and urbanism. As ever greater numbers of people moved to a small number of
rapidly expanding cities (or, as was often the case, a single main city), the fabric of life in
both urban and rural areas changed in massive, often unforeseen ways. With the largest and
one of the most rapidly growing cities in sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria has experienced the
phenomenon of urbanization as thoroughly as any African nation, but its experience has
also been unique--in scale, in pervasiveness, and in historical antecedents.

Modern urbanization in most African countries has been dominated by the growth of a
single primate city, the political and commercial center of the nation; its emergence was,
more often than not, linked to the shaping of the country during the colonial era. In
countries with a coastline, this was often a coastal port, and in Nigeria, Lagos fitted well
into this pattern. Unlike most other nations, however, Nigeria had not just one or two but
several other cities of major size and importance, a number of which were larger than most
other national capitals in Africa. In two areas, the Yoruba region in the southwest and the
Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri areas of the north, there were numbers of cities with historical
roots stretching back considerably before the advent of British colonizers, giving them
distinctive physical and cultural identities. Moreover, in areas such as the Igbo region in
the southeast, which had few urban centers before the colonial period and was not highly
urbanized even at independence, there has been a massive growth of newer cities since the
1970s, so that these areas in 1990 were also highly urban.

Cities are not only independent centers of concentrated human population and activity;
they also exert a potent influence on the rural landscape. What is distinctive about the
growth of cities in Nigeria is the length of its historical extension and the geographic
pervasiveness of its coverage.

Historical Development of Urban Centers

Nigerian urbanism, as in other parts of the world, is a function primarily of trade and
politics. In the north, the great urban centers of Kano, Katsina, Zaria, Sokoto, the early
Borno capitals (Gazargamo and Kuka), and other cities served as entrepts to the Saharan
and trans-Saharan trade, and as central citadels and political capitals for the expanding
states of the northern savanna. They attracted large numbers of traders and migrants from
their own hinterlands and generally also included "stranger quarters" for migrants of other
regions and nations. In the south, the rise of the Yoruba expansionist city-states and of
Benin and others was stimulated by trade to the coast, and by competition among these
growing urban centers for the control of their hinterlands and of the trade from the interior
to the Atlantic (including the slave trade). The activities of European traders also attracted
people to such coastal cities as Lagos, Badagri, Brass, and Bonny, and later Calabar and
Port Harcourt. Overlying the original features of the earlier cities were those generated by
colonial and postcolonial rule, which created new urban centers while also drastically
altering the older ones. All these cities and peri-urban areas generally tended to have high
population densities.

The northern savanna cities grew within city walls, at the center of which were the main
market, government buildings, and the central mosque. Around them clustered the houses
of the rich and powerful. Smaller markets and denser housing were found away from this
core, along with little markets at the gates and some cleared land within the gates that was
needed especially for siege agriculture. Groups of specialized craft manufacturers (cloth
dyers, weavers, potters, and the like) were organized into special quarters, the enterprises
often being family-based and inherited. Roads from the gates ran into the central market
and the administrative headquarters. Cemeteries were outside the city gates.

The concentration of wealth, prestige, political power, and religious learning in the cities
attracted large numbers of migrants, both from the neighboring countryside and from
distant regions. This influx occasioned the building of additional sections of the city to
accommodate these strangers. In many of the northern cities, these areas were separated
between sections for the distant, often non-Muslim migrants not subject to the religious
and other prohibitions of the emir, and for those who came from the local region and were
subjects of the emir. The former area was designated the "Sabon Gari," or new town
(which in southern cities, such as Ibadan, has often been shortened to "Sabo"), while the
latter was often known as the "Tudun Wada," an area often quite wealthy and elaborately
laid out. To the precolonial sections of the town was often added a government area for
expatriate administrators. The result was that many of the northern cities have grown from
a single centralized core to being polynucleated cities, with areas whose distinctive
character reflected their origins, and the roles and position of their inhabitants.

Surrounding many of the large, older northern cities, including Kano, Sokoto, and Katsina,
there developed regions of relatively dense rural settlement where increasingly intensive
agriculture was practiced to supply food and other products to the urban population. These
areas have come to be known as close settled zones, and they were of major importance to
the agricultural economies of the north. By 1990 the inner close settled zone around Kano,
and the largest of its kind, extended to a radius of about thirty kilometers, essentially the
limit of a day trip to the city on foot or by donkey. Within this inner zone, there has long
been a tradition of intensive interaction between the rural and urban populations, involving
not just food but also wood for fuel, manure, and a range of trade goods. There has also
been much land investment and speculation in this zone. The full range of Kano's outer
close settled zone in 1990 was considered to extend sixty-five to ninety-five kilometers
from the city, and the rural-urban interactions had extended in distance and increased in
intensity because of the great improvements in roads and in the availability of motorized
transport. Within this zone, the great majority of usable land was under annual rainy season
or continuous irrigated cultivation, making it one of the most intensively cultivated regions
in sub-Saharan Africa.

In the south, there were some similarities of origin and design in the forest and southern
savanna cities of Yorubaland, but culture, landscape, and history generated a very different
character for most of these cities. As in the north, the earlier Yoruba towns often centered
around the palace of a ruler, or afin, which was surrounded by a large open space and a
market. This arrangement was still evident in older cities such as Ife. However, many of
the most important contemporary Yoruba cities, including the largest, Ibadan, were
founded during the period of the Yoruba wars in the first half of the nineteenth century.
Reflecting their origins as war camps, they usually contained multiple centers of power
without a single central palace. Instead, the main market often assumed the central position
in the original town, and there were several separate areas of important compounds
established by the major original factions. Abeokuta, for example, had three main chiefly
families from the Egba clan who had broken away from and become important rivals of
Ibadan. Besides these divisions were the separate areas built for stranger migrants, such as
Sabo in Ibadan, where many of the Hausa migrants resided; the sections added during the
colonial era, often as government reserve areas (GRAs); and the numerous areas of
postcolonial expansion, generally having little or no planning.

The high population densities typically found in Yoruba cities--and even in rural villages
in Yorubaland--were among the striking features of the region. This culturally based
pattern was probably reinforced during the period of intense intercity warfare, but it
persisted in most areas through the colonial and independence periods. The distinctive
Yoruba pattern of densification involved filling in compounds with additional rooms, then
adding a second, third, or sometimes even a fourth story. Eventually, hundreds of people
might live in a space that had been occupied by only one extended family two or three
generations earlier. Fueling this process of densification were the close connections
between rural and urban dwellers, and the tendency for any Yoruba who could afford it to
maintain both urban and rural residences.

The colonial government, in addition to adding sections to existing cities, also created
important new urban centers in areas where there previously had been none. Among the
most important were Kaduna, the colonial capital of the Protectorate of Northern Nigeria,
and Jos in the central highlands, which was the center of the tin mining industry on the
plateau and a recreational town for expatriates and the Nigerian elite. These new cities
lacked walls but had centrally located administrative buildings and major road and rail
transport routes, along which the main markets developed. These routes became one of the
main forces for the cities' growth. The result was usually a basically linear city, rather than
the circular pattern largely based on defensive needs, which characterized the earlier
indigenous urban centers.

The other ubiquitous colonial addition was the segregated GRA, consisting of European-
style housing, a hospital or nursing station, and educational, recreational, and religious
facilities for the British colonials and the more prominent European trading community.
The whole formed an expatriate enclave, which was deliberately separated from the
indigenous Nigerian areas, ostensibly to control sanitation and limit the spread of diseases
such as malaria. After independence, these areas generally became upper income suburbs,
which sometimes spread outward into surrounding farmlands as well as inward to fill in the
space that formerly separated the GRA from the rest of the city. New institutions, such as
university campuses, government office complexes, hospitals, and hotels, were often
located outside or on the fringes of the city in the 1980s. The space that originally
separated them from the denser areas was then filled in as further growth occurred.

Urbanization Since Independence

Spurred by the oil boom prosperity of the 1970s and the massive improvements in roads
and the availability of vehicles, Nigeria since independence has become an increasingly
urbanized and urban-oriented society. During the 1970s Nigeria had possibly the fastest
urbanization growth rate in the world. Because of the great influx of people into urban
areas, the growth rate of urban population in Nigeria in 1986 was estimated to be close to 6
percent per year, more than twice that of the rural population. Between 1970 and 1980, the
proportion of Nigerians living in urban areas was estimated to have grown from 16 to more
than 20 percent, and by 2010, urban population was expected to be more than 40 percent of
the nation's total. Although Nigeria did not have the highest proportion of urban population
in sub-Saharan Africa (in several of the countries of francophone Central Africa, for
example, close to 50 percent of the population was in the major city or cities), it had more
large cities and the highest total urban population of any sub-Saharan African country.

In 1990 there were twenty-one state capitals in Nigeria, each estimated to have more than
100,000 inhabitants; fifteen of these, plus a number of other cities, probably had
populations exceeding 200,000. Virtually all of these were growing at a rate that doubled
their size every fifteen years. These statistics did not include the new national capital,
Abuja, which was planned to have more than 1 million inhabitants by early in the twenty-
first century, although that milestone might be delayed as construction there stretched out.
In 1990 the government was still in the process of moving from Lagos, the historical
capital, to Abuja in the middle belt, and most sections of the government were still
operating from Lagos. Since 1976 there had been dual capitals in both Lagos and Abuja. If
one added the hundreds of smaller towns with more than 20,000 inhabitants, which
resembled the larger centers more than the many smaller villages throughout the country,
the extent of Nigerian urbanization was probably more widespread than anywhere else in
sub-Saharan Africa.

Many of the major cities had growing manufacturing sectors, including, for example,
textile mills, steel plants, car assembly plants, large construction companies, trading
corporations, and financial institutions. They also included government-service centers,
large office and apartment complexes, along with a great variety of small business
enterprises, many in the "informal sector," and vast slum areas. All postsecondary
education installations were in urban centers, and the vast majority of salaried jobs
remained urban rather than rural.

Although cities varied, there was a typical Third World urban approach that distinguished
life in the city from that in the countryside. It emerged from the density and variety of
housing--enormous poverty and overcrowding for most, and exorbitantly wealthy suburbs
and guarded enclaves for the upper classes. It also emerged from the rhythm of life set by
masses of people going to work each day; the teeming central market areas; the large
trading and department stores; the traffic, especially at rush hours; the filth that resulted
from inadequate housing and public services; the destitution indicated by myriads of
beggars and unemployed; the fear of rising crime; and the excitement of night life that was
nonexistent in most rural areas. All these factors, plus the increased opportunity to connect
with the rich and powerful through chains of patron-client relations, made the city
attractive, lively, and dangerous. Urban people might farm, indeed many were trying to do
so as food prices soared in the 1980s, but urban life differed vastly from the slow and
seasonally defined rhythm of life in rural areas. Generally, even with all its drawbacks, it
was seen as more desirable, especially by young people with more than a primary
education.

The most notorious example of urban growth in Nigeria has undoubtedly been Lagos, its
most important commercial center. The city has shot up in size since the 1960s; its annual
growth rate was estimated at almost 14 percent during the 1970s, when the massive extent
of new construction was exceeded only by the influx of migrants attracted by the booming
prosperity. Acknowledged to be the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa (although an
accurate count of its population must await census results), Lagos has become legendary
for its congestion and other urban problems. Essentially built on poorly drained
marshlands, the city commonly had flooding during the rainy season, and there was
frequent sewage backup, especially in the poorer lowland sections. As in other Nigerian
cities, there was a constant problem of garbage and waste disposal. Housing construction
had boomed but rarely seemed to keep pace with demand. The city's main fame, however,
came from the scale of its traffic jams. Spanning several islands as well as a large and
expanding mainland area, the city never seemed to have enough bridges or arteries. The
profusion of vehicles that came with the prosperity of the 1970s seemed often to be
arranged in a massive standstill, which became the site for urban peddling of an amazing
variety of goods, as well as for entertainment, exasperation, innovation, and occasionally
crime. By 1990 Lagos had made some progress in managing its traffic problems both
through road and bridge construction and traffic control regulations. This progress was
aided by the economic downturn of the late 1980s, which slowed urban migration and even
led some to people return to rural areas.

Aside from Lagos, the most rapid recent rates of urbanization in the 1980s were around
Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta region, which was at the heart of the oil boom, and
generally throughout the Igbo and other areas of the southeast. These regions historically
had few urban centers, but numerous large cities, including Onitsha, Owerri, Enugu, Aba,
and Calabar, grew very rapidly as commercial and administrative centers. The Yoruba
southwest was by 1990 still the most highly urbanized part of the country, while the middle
belt was the least urbanized. The problems of Lagos, as well as the desire for a more
centrally located capital that would be more of a force for national unity, led to the
designation in 1976 of a site for a new national capital at Abuja.

Rural-Urban Linkages

Cities in Nigeria, as elsewhere, have historically exerted potent influences on the

countryside. The northern city-states played a major role in the distribution of human
population and economic activity throughout the savanna region. As citadels and centers of
power and conquest, they caused depopulation in some regions, notably those subject to
conquest and raiding, and population concentration in other areas. The low populations of
the middle belt savanna probably resulted from the raiding and the conquests of the Hausa
and Fulani city-states. The subsequent regrowth of bush land is thought to have led to a
resurgence of tsetse flies and other disease vectors, which inhibited attempts to repopulate
the region. The complementary effect was to increase population in zones of relative
security, either areas under the protection of the dominant political states or areas of
refuge, such as hill masses, which were difficult for armed horsemen to conquer.

The areas under the control or influence of major city-states would have been economically
oriented toward those centers, both through the coercive exaction of taxes or tribute and
through the production of food and manufactured products for the court and urban
population. Many of these economic factors were replicated in the modern experience of
urbanization, although one major change, dating from the imposition of British colonialism
in the north, was the removal of the insecurity caused by warring polities.

Although there are similarities to this northern savanna pattern in the historical impact of
Yoruba urbanization, the very different nature of the Yoruba cities led to a distinctive
pattern of rural interaction. Yoruba cities traditionally had attached to them satellite
villages or hamlets, the inhabitants of which considered themselves as belonging to that
city, although most of their lives were spent outside the cities and their livelihoods derived
from farming or other rural activities. The resulting close connection between urban
dwellers and the surrounding farmers, indeed the fact that they were often identical in that
urban dwellers also had farms in which they lived for much of the year, was noted by early
European travelers to Yorubaland. Even in 1990, many Yoruba urban dwellers owned
farms within a reasonable distance from the city and worked them regularly. Moreover,
many villagers owned houses, rooms, or partly completed structures in nearby towns or
cities and divided their time, investments, and activities between urban and rural settings.
Thus, the traditional pattern of urban-rural interconnections continued to be a deeply
rooted facet of Yoruba culture.

Among the most important interactions between rural and urban areas through the 1980s in
Nigeria and most other parts of Africa were the demographic impacts of urban migration
on rural areas. Because the great majority of migrants were men of working age, the rural
areas from which they came were left with a demographically unbalanced population of
women, younger children, and older people. This phenomenon was not new to Nigeria and
had been evident in parts of the country since long before independence. The 1953 census
showed that the crowded rural regions of Igboland, among other areas, had already
experienced a substantial migration of men, leaving a large preponderance of women in the
prime working ages. In what is today Imo State, for example, the sex ratio (i.e., the ratio of
men to women, multiplied by 100) for the zero to fourteen age-group in 1953 was 100.2,
but for ages fifteen to forty-nine, it fell to 79.1, indicating a large surplus of females. Many
of the male Igbo migrants left to work in the cities of the north and southwest. Although
the civil war subsequently caused many Igbos to return to the southeast, the overall scale
and geographic extent of rural-urban migration in the country had increased steadily after
the war. Migration was strongly stimulated by the oil boom of the 1970s, with all of the
opportunities that era brought for making one's fortune in cities such as Lagos, Port
Harcourt, and Warri, as well as others that were indirectly affected by the oil economy.
Since then, migration has waxed and waned with the state of the economy. In the late
1980s, many young people were compelled by the sharp downturn of the economy and the
shortage of urban employment to return to their home villages. As a longer-term
phenomenon, however, migration from the rural areas, especially by young men, was
expected to be an accelerating and largely irreversible social process.

This process affected the rural economy in the areas of migration by creating marked
changes in the gender division of labor. In most of Africa, agricultural labor was
traditionally specified by gender: men had certain tasks and women had others, although
the specific divisions varied by culture and ethnic group. As working-age men left the rural
areas, the resulting labor gap was met by others, usually wives or children, or by hired
labor--or the tasks were modified or not performed. The departure of men helped to
generate a lively market for rural wage labor. In many areas in 1990, male and female
laborers were commonly hired to perform agricultural tasks such as land preparation,
weeding, and harvesting, which in the past were done either by household labor or
traditional work parties. In turn, the growth in demand for hired labor fostered an increase
of seasonal and longer term intrarural migration. The improvement of roads was also
extremely important in stimulating the scale of seasonal labor migration. It became
feasible, for example, for Hausa and other northern workers to come south to work as hired
laborers in the cocoa belt and elsewhere at the onset of the rains and later return to their
home villages in time to plant their own crops.

In more remote areas, however, finding hired workers was often difficult. The absence of
men led to neglect of such tasks as land clearing and heavy soil conservation work, which
they generally performed. Thus, in forest areas from which there was much male
migration, thickly overgrown land that had been left fallow for extended periods would not
be cleared for cultivation; instead, the same parcels were used repeatedly, leading to rapid
declines in soil fertility and yields. As a result, land degradation also occurred in these low
density areas.

Some of the most profound impacts of urban areas on the rural economy derived from the
vast increase in food demand generated by the growth of cities. Both the amounts and
types of foods consumed by urban populations helped to transform agricultural systems
and practices. Cassava, corn, and fresh vegetable production especially benefited from the
expansion of urban demand. Cassava tubers can be processed by fermenting, grating, and
drying to produce a powdered product known as gari, which can be stored and is very
suitable for cooking in urban settings. Especially throughout the southern parts of the
country, gari demand grew rapidly with the expansion of urban populations, causing a
large increase in cassava planting and processing, largely done by women as a cottage
industry. Demand for and production of corn also increased significantly. In the early
portion of the harvest season, fresh corn sold as roadside "fast food" became a highly
profitable endeavor, especially in cities. Throughout the northern areas of the country, corn
production for dried grain--most of which was grown for sale to urban areas--also
expanded rapidly through the 1980s, supplementing or replacing some of the traditional
 sorghum and millet production. The expansion of commercial chicken and egg production,
also largely for the urban market, further raised demand for corn as feed.

The expansion and improvement of the transport network in the 1970s and 1980s played a
key role in tying urban markets to rural producing regions. This linkage was most critical
for fresh vegetable production, which previously was very limited in geographical extent
but became feasible and profitable in many areas once efficient transport connections to
urban areas were established. The continued growth of urbanization and expansion of
transport capacity were likely to be the major driving forces of agricultural production and
modernization through the 1990s.

Unending Urbanisation in Lagos, Nigeria : The fastest growing city in Africa

The second most populous city in Africa (after Cairo)* and the third on Earth,, Lagos is a
magnet for migrants from throughout West Africa, say the authors of this piece from the
Nigerian forum, Village Voice.

People and motorists move along Nnamdi Azikiwe street, Lagos, Nigeria. Reporters
Migrants from across the country and all over Africa come to Lagos to search for work and to
take advantage of better opportunities, most of whom are from rural and urban regions in other
parts of Nigeria. With its current population of 15M expected to expand to 24M by 2015,
housing and infrastructure are a huge government challenge.

Lagos also draws migrants from all over world, although data on both legal and illegal flows is
lacking. Most are from West Africa notably from Chad and Niger, Togo and Benin. While a
few achieve the dream, most Lagos residents are living the nightmare. Immigrants dream of the
luxuries of Lekki and Victoria Island, but most end up in the slums of Mushin, Ajegunle, and
Makoko. Many newcomers often live in illegal structures and in fear of eviction. Adding to the
housing nightmare there are many other infrastructural issues that arise when an extra 600,000
people a year migrate to an area of land which supported 300,000 in 1950. Lagos residents have
to cope with some of the worst traffic in the world, massive environmental pollution, water
scarcity, intermittent electricity, poor sanitation, overstressed roads, and poorly equipped
hospitals and schools, particularly in the less affluent areas.

Government efforts
The current civilian government appears to be making concerted efforts to turn things around. A
few years ago, the state government implemented a pilot Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) scheme,
which has been a major success, and is due for expansion to other areas of the state.** There are
also plans to develop a light rail system*** and ferry services****, which are all part of the
intermodel transportation system, designed to combat vehicle congestion.

The Eko Atlantic project is another scheme that is expected to improve access to housing and
jobs. Shaped on a similar project in Dubai, it involves reclaiming about 8km2 of land from the
ocean to create a modern city with residential, commercial, and financial developments as well
as tourist attractions*****. There are also several ongoing road construction projects and plans
for independent power plants to improve the provision of electricity, among several other
infrastructural developments.

But the city cannot continue to absorb over half a million new residents every year without
eventually ending up in crisis. There must be efforts to develop other areas of Nigeria,
particularly rural ones. Priority should be given to infrastructure development that supports
agriculture. Once people are convinced that they can achieve a decent standard of living where
they are, they will be less inclined to move to Lagos.

www.nigeriavillagesquare.com

* UN Habitat, 2008

THE launch of the first result of the annual monitoring and performance evaluation report of the
National Implementation Plan (NIP) 2010-2013 last Tuesday, by the National Planning
Commission (NPC) marks the beginning of a pragmatic pursuit of Nigerias Vision 20: 2020,
ONYEDIKA AGBEDO writes.

Nigerias return to strategic planning after about three decades through the introduction of the
National Implementation Plan (NIP) 2010-2013 in pursuance of Vision 20:2020 created the need
for an effective National Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) System. On February 22, 2010, as
part of a deliberate effort to institutionalise M&E, the Federal Government through the Federal
Executive Council (FEC) approved the M&E framework for monitoring and evaluating public
expenditure and investment, with National Planning Commission as the main overseer. Last
Tuesday, the commission released the first result of the annual monitoring and performance
evaluation report for 2010 in which only three sectors, namely oil and gas, transportation and
trade and commerce (wholesale and retail trade) met the growth targets set.
Acknowledged as the first in the nations history, the report provides an overview of sectoral
growth performance of almost all federal government targets and objectives in terms of how far
the government has progressed in delivering its objectives, what it could do better and what
remains to be done. It is, in deed, the beginning of a pragmatic pursuit of Nigerias dream to be
one of the 20 leading economies in the world by 2020 tagged Nigerias Vision 20: 2020.

The Minister and Deputy Chairman of National Planning Commission, Shamsudeen Usman,
who launched report in Lagos noted that while the report itself focuses on only the performance
of the federal government, and not those of the states or local governments, it still remains
invaluable, as a model of accountability. The report provides an overview of progress in the
seven crucial thematic areas of NV20: 2020 and the first National Implementation Plan i.e.
Macroeconomic Developments, Productive Sector, Human Capital and Social Development,
Knowledge-Based Economy, Regional Development, Governance and Security and General
Administration. It also reports on the projects and programmes of Ministries, Departments and
Agencies (MDAs) and how aligned they are with the NV 20: 2020 priority programmes and
projects and the expected outcomes of these projects and programmes. It concludes with a
scorecard that indicates whether or not MDAs are on target, above target with planned projects
or if the data is insufficient to make any conclusive determination of the progress of the MDAs.

Usman described the report as the product of a painstaking and diligent efforts by over 250 staff,
representing over 90 federal MDAs. The outcome is a valuable tool for assessing programme
impact that conforms to international best practices in M&E, he added.

Usman, who was the architect of Nigerias return to strategic plan, enunciated the vision to
significantly improve the nations economy by 2020 further described the report as the first ever
Nigerias Vision 20:2020 accountability report and perhaps even, the first publicly available
M&E report, in the history of our great country, Nigeria.

According to the Secretary to the Commission, Prof. Sylvester Monye, the report underscores the
governments commitment to adequate monitoring and evaluation of policies, programmes and
projects aimed at ensuring effective implementation of NV20: 2020.

The report provides a descriptive overview of Nigerias performance and the extent to which
the specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) at the outcome level have changed from those
specified against the performance scorecard for each of the MDA at the federal level.

He observed that the key message of the report is that, the Nigerian economy registered a
modest improvement in the performance of the economy during 2010 with the overall real GDP
growth rate at 7.8 per cent. However, the performance still falls short of the double-digit growth
required to achieve the NV20: 2020 target. There were, nonetheless, challenges with respect to
attaining some specific KPI targets by the federal MDAs during period. These are expected to be
addressed in year 2011 and beyond.

The report further shows that Nigerias global GDP ranking improved during the period under
consideration. It said: The countrys ranking on the basis of nominal GDP edged up from 44th
position in 2009 to 41st position in 2010. On the basis of purchasing power parity, which
eliminates the effects of exchange rate price variations in goods and services across countries,
Nigerias GDP ranking edged up from 37 in 2009 to 31 in 2010. This implies that Nigeria has
made significant progress in line with our vision to rank among the top 20 economies in the
world by moving up three and six steps respectively in the one year since Mr. President assumed
his current role as president of Nigeria.

The report, however, revealed that the manufacturing sector, utilities (including electricity) and
building and construction sectors, which are critical to achieving Nigerias Vision 20:2020,
performed very poorly, in relation to the set targets. And Usman warned that their performance
can be worse in the future, unless fundamental steps are taken to address the binding constraints
to growth, so that the growth potentials of these sectors can be unleashed.

According to the M&E report, internally, Nigerias strong growth continued even stronger in
2010 with Real GDP growth of 7.87 per cent compared to 6.96 per cent in 2009 and Real GDP
per capita growing by 4.67per cent in 2010 from 3.67per cent in 2009.

This growth, despite representing one of the fastest in the world, however, fell slightly short of
the target of 8.20 per cent for GDP growth and 5.2 per cent for GDP per capita set in the First
National Implementation Plan for Nigeria Vision 20:2020 (NIP 2010-13). Given the effect of the
Global Crisis on Nigeria, however, these growth results are impressive and encouraging, it
noted.

The report shows that real agricultural GDP grew by 5.88 per cent and 5.64 per cent respectively
in 2009 and 2010 but noted that this fell below the 6.6 per cent growth rate target set for sector in
2010.

The report, however, observed that massive flood in Sokoto and some other locations in the
Northern part of the country in 2010 largely contributed to the decline in output growth.

An evaluation of the manufacturing sector indicators shows that its growth rate declined
marginally from 7.94 per cent in 2009 to 7. 64 per cent in 2010. The actual performance of 7.64
per cent for 2010 is lower than the target of 10 per cent set for the sector. At the current rate of
growth, the sector may not meet the target growth rate of 13 per cent by 2013. Poor
infrastructure, the sub-optimal business environment, and high cost of funding are contributing
factors to the low growth. The sector also failed to meet the targets set for contribution to GDP
and capacity utilisation among others. There is therefore the need for government to direct
special intervention to the sector if it is to meet most of the targets set for it in NV20: 2020 in
coming years, Usman stated.

Govt embarks on 25-year rail development, modernisation plan

China releases $500m concessionary loan for rail project

THE Federal Government has expressed its commitment to pursue the 25-year railway
development and modernisation plan in order to achieve the transformation agenda of the present
administration.

Already, the Chinese government has released the concessionary loan of $500 million for the
Abuja-Kaduna standard gauge, railway modernisation project.
Minister of Transport, Senator Idris Umar, who disclosed this in Abuja, yesterday, during an
inspection tour of the ongoing construction of Abuja-Kaduna standard gauge/railway
modernisation project, observed that the present administration is very passionate about the rail
transportation and had provisions in the national budget for the sector.

The minister noted that the long-term strategy for the sector would ensure the full resuscitation
of the railway system.

He recalled that the project for the construction of the new Abuja-Kaduna railway was awarded
to the China Civil and Engineering Construction Company, CCECC at a cost of $874 million,
including consultancy services.

The Federal Government had negotiated for a concessionary loan of $500 million from the
Chinese government at an interest rate of about three per cent, which is to be repayable in 15
years.

According to the minister, we have about 25-year plan to ensure that our railway system is well
brought on board and fully resuscitated, so that Nigeria can compete favourably in the railway
transportation. Countries that have developed all over the world got to that level because of the
presence of effective railway transportation system.

It is part of the vision of Mr. President, to have in place a fast train where you can board from
Lagos to Abuja in about three to four hours. But this is a vision and in the course of time, we
hope to actualisze this vision.

He pointed out that for decades, the railway system has been in comatose. And this is the first
time that the government has thought it wise to revisit the railways.

And I think Mr. President deserves some commendations for thinking about resuscitating the
railway sector. And I want to assure he is very passionate about the railway. We have some fair
provision for the sector in the 2011 budget.

We hope that we shall get something substantial in the budget so as to continue in the manner
we are going. We have quite a number of rehabilitation works that are ongoing. The Lagos-Jebba
has been completed.

Of course, there are problems here and there with the Jebba-Kano rehabilitation of the old rail
line. We are going to address it shortly because I intend to undertake a visit to see for myself the
constraints and challenges on that particular route, he said.

The Managing Director of China Civil and Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC),
CAO Bao Gang assured that the Abuja-Kaduna rail line modernisation project would be
completed and delivered to Nigerians at the stipulated period.

According to him, there is no challenge in respect of funding, because this project in total costs
$849 million and from the Chinese government, a soft loan of $500 million is already available
but the Nigerian government will pay the difference which is in the budget for 2012 and 2013.
For the Abuja light rail project there is already provision for it in the budget and we dont have
enough fund for that project.

He described the project as vital to socio-economic development of Nigeria. If you know, this
project is most important to Nigerian people for economic growth. Particularly, for developed
country, the railway system is most important.

According to him, by the time the project is completed, the trains can take passengers from Idu
(Abuja-terminus) to Kaduna without spending up to one hour. For the cargo train, it has to use
one and half hours. But the cargo train can deliver at one time, at least, 800 tonnes of goods and
for the passenger train, it can convey more than 5000 passengers at one trip.

About Us

Government Vision
To establish a company that will provide a safe and efficient bus transportation system in Lagos
State.
The company is conceived as a private limited liability company it will operate strictly along
commercial lines.

LAGBUS Vision
To be an integrated bus service solutions provider covering all areas of Lagos State in
partnership with other operators. We shall deploy up to date fleet and technology
solutions,setting standards for excellent service and management of transport related assets.

LAGBUS Mission
To provide and manage a safe, reliable and affordable passenger transport service within Lagos
State leading to beneficial returns for the employees, investors and the people of Lagos State.

History:
LAGBUS is created out of the experience of the Lagos State Government over the years in its
various attempts to provide an efficient safe and sustainable bus transportation system for the
city.

The city has had the experience of a State Transport Corporation (LSTC) and has experimented
with provision of subsidies for private operators. The state has also ventured into some
partnership with TATA assembling of buses and running of a bus system. These attempts have
failed for various reasons.

However, government has evolved a more robust strategy of implementation of a new public bus
system in Lagos based on the experience over the last decades.

Some of the highlights of the new strategy are as follows:-

 The company must be run as a private limited liability company
Management of the maintenance company must be separated from the bus Company
Bus company must operate in conjunction with local transport operators
Ticketing is to be centralized.
Backward integration with investment in Bus Assembly plants is necessary
Ownership of the company should include institutional private investors.

DrivingLagosintoanewage
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By Allwell Okpi, Chinedu Ozordi and Olugbenro Adeoye

The last time Gerald Onwuzurike visited Lagos was in 1998. Coming from the sleepy town of
Okigwe, in Imo State, he was shocked at the frenzied lifestyle of Lagos residents. He has since
come back to Lagos to stay for good, and he quickly joined the ever-swelling band of brothers
called commercial auto bike (Okada) riders. Today, he is even more astonished at the sea of
human beings who calmly wait on a queue for a BRT bus.

This is an amazing sight, he exclaimed in pidgin English. Imagine Lagosians queuing up in

an orderly manner. Such a sight was rare. This governor has really tried in providing this
transport scheme that has been so popular.

The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) scheme, introduced by Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport
Agency (LAMATA), on 17 March, 2008 has been praised by stakeholders as a largely successful
venture.

Come down, lets fight!

From the beginning of the 20th century till date, there have been different bus systems in Lagos.
A new set of buses has always emerged to take off from already-existing and less-comfortable
ones.

The state government-owned bus schemes started with Lagos Municipal Transport Service
(LMTS), which later evolved to Lagos City Transport (LCT) in 1962, and further into Lagos
State Transport Corporation (LSTC), in 1967, when Lagos became a state.

Ayodeji Olukoju, who contributed a piece called Urban Transport to Nigerian Cities edited
by Toyin Falola and Steve Sahm, wrote that the first commercial bus service was established in
1914 by Charlotte Olajumoke Obasa, a leading indigenous entrepreneur of that time.
There was no significant change until the 1960s when many operators went into the transport
business. This resulted in the emergence of the Bolekaja, which literally means come down and
lets fight in Yoruba.

As there was never enough room in the packed vehicle for a decent sitting arrangement resulting
often in fisticuffs; they would tell each other to come down and lets fight. Bolekaja has since
been phased out, and they are now used to carry foodstuff in rural communities.

Seventies to Millennium

The Molue and the Danfo buses, which rolled into Lagos in the seventies replaced Bolekaja.
Molue is a Mercedes truck, which is reconstructed, locally, into a bus which seats about 44
passengers. The Danfo initially started with a Volkswagen model which seats only 12.

Though other vehicle models have joined the booming business, expanding the carriage capacity
to between 12, 14, 18, and 24 passengers. A clear attempt to cope with the bustling population of
commuting Lagosians. They go by different names like Oluwole which are long Mercedes
Benz buses imported by the Lagos State Government in the early 1980s for the Eko Transport
Services.

The scheme had since failed and the buses sold to private operators. Another one named Faka
is a set of 33-seater Mercedes 608 buses and Tata, another long bus, which was introduced in
the 1990s by the Military Administrator then Lt. Col. Buba Marwa to complement the tricycle,
Keke Marwa. Many other buses including Nissan buses, Isuzu buses and Toyota buses and
Okada and Keke NAPEP, have emerged at different points in recent Lagos history.

BRT Scheme

The scheme was launched on 17 March, 2008, with 100 buses. BRT operates as a transport
system, which relies on the use of dedicated lanes special traffic lanes to guarantee fast and
reliable travel time for commuters. These lanes are usually segregated, thus enabling the buses to
have the right of way in situations of traffic congestion. It flagged off with the Mile 12 - CMS
route. It was planned by the Lagos state government and run by LAMATA.

What we have with BRT in Lagos is public private partnership, said Kolawole Ojelabi,
spokesperson of LAMATA. The state government provides and maintains the infrastructure,
while the public sector provides the rolling stock. The scheme has been a resounding success
and celebrates its one-year anniversary on 17 March, 2009.

The Bus Rapid Transit system, launched for Lagos on March 17, 2008, successfully transported
9.7 million passengers in the first 100 days of operations, said Dayo Mobereola, managing
director of LAMATA, at a media forum last year.

While agreeing that there are still many aspects of the scheme that need to be improved upon; all
the respondents that spoke to NEXT applauded the success of the scheme, and called for speedy
expansion of the scope of the initiative.
Mopping his brows on a humid evening, on his way home, Yinka Balogun grimaced at the
stifling conditions inside a BRT bus that was packed tight with passengers.

When the buses were introduced, the air conditioners were working, he said. What has
happened to them? Seems they just used the whole A/C thing as a promotion drive to attract
people to start using the buses, he complained.

Regulators were vague in responding to this allegation. BRT on Mile 12 to CMS corridor did
not start with A/C, countered Mr. Ojelabi.

Jumoke Afolabi prefers to use the BRT, even though she still has to take two other buses to get
home. She joined the clamour for the expansion of the BRT routes.

The scheme has been proven to be a success, but we would like the government to build more
routes and expand this scheme to cover larger areas of the state, she says. Construction has
begun on new routes, and LAMATA said it is making efforts to launch the new routes and new
buses soon.

LAMATA is working on the Iyana-Ipaja/Igando/Ikotun Pilot Bus Franchise Scheme, said the
LAMATA spokesperson. In a matter of months, this will begin operations. There is a network
of seven BRT routes planned for Lagos. One has been implemented. The other routes are being
surveyed to determine what kind of infrastructure would be needed. Meanwhile, there are plans
to extend the present BRT corridor to Yaba, Oyingbo, Iddo and terminates at CMS. It will make
its return journey through Herbert Macaulay Way, he added.

The buses available are not enough to carry the millions of passengers who board BRT every
day, especially during rush hour. Buses are packed tight like sardines in a can during rush hour
with passengers standing or sitting on bus steps. Sometimes, passengers can end up standing for
most of a two-hour ride in traffic.

It is effective for now. Its comfortable; at least some of us have left our cars to use BRT. The
thing is just that they should not overload it like Molue, said Pat Ogbuigwe, a commuter.
People should just sit and not stand. When they started, passengers were sitting down, but now
they have started carrying standing.

Mr. Ojelabi also agreed that passengers should not have to stand in the buses, but he seemed
powerless to address the problem.

In any urban transport system, passengers usually stand in buses, he said. What is
experienced on the Mile 12 to CMS corridor is no exception. Depending on if the bus is Marco
Polo or Ashok Leyland brand, standees are between 25 and 32, he said.

Some of the buses have been reduced to semi scrap-yard material. They barely totter on their
wobbly wheels, and often have various components like headlights and windows missing. Some
passengers complained about the state of these buses, and wondered why the operators find it
hard to maintain them.
As the regulator, LAMATA has the responsibility for ensuring that the buses maintenance
manuals are followed. We ensure that the operator withdraw damaged vehicles for repair
regularly, says Mr. Ojelabi. He, however, doggedly maintained that all existing 220 buses are
on the roads.

This initiative has really done a lot in alleviating the perennial traffic problems in this state,
especially for the huge number of island-mainland commuters, said Joyce Odimegwu, a lawyer
who commutes from her home on the mainland to her office on the island daily. It still has a lot
of challenges, but I must admit it has been a very successful scheme.

Commonwealth planners proffer solutions to urbanisation challenges

Alarmed that uncontrolled urbanisation is creating problems such as settlement of low income
people in marginal areas, where they are vulnerable to natural disasters; poor land
administration, urban and rural poverty, inadequate and ailing infrastructure; regional and urban
planners in the Commonwealth nations have called for concerted efforts to tackle the challenges
of unregulated urban growth.

Rising from a two-day West Africa Workshop on Planning for Liveable Human Settlements
organised, by the Nigerian Institute of Town Planners in association with the Commonwealth
Association of Planners, which held in Lagos last week the human settlement experts noted that
members of the association should renew their commitment to developing and using their skills
to deliver sustainable human settlements.

In a communiqu made available to our correspondent on Saturday by the organisers, the

planners said that there should be cooperation, collaboration and networking between planners in
the Anglophone and Francophone countries in the West Africa region through the West Africa
Planning Association.

The communiqu noted that the individual professional institutes must work together in the West
African region to raise awareness of human settlements challenges at all levels of government.

The communiqu noted, that Professional institutes, especially in the built environment, should
be encouraged to work with us on the West Africa Planners agenda.

They also want national governments to ensure that legislations for land use are fit for tackling
present challenges, including issues of tenure and climate change.

The recommended that governments at all levels should invest in improving the liveability of
rural and urban settlements through the provision and maintenance of adequate infrastructure,
efficient town/city management and delivery of public services, and increased accessibility to
employment.

Besides, they urged governments, non-governmental organisations and planning institutes to

invest in capacity building through training and re-training of personnel for job efficiency,
increased productivity and relevance.
The planners said in the communiqu that Planning schools in the Commonwealth should
promote knowledge sharing and exchange programmes and expand their curricula to include
contemporary human settlement and planning issues such as climate change, community
planning and design, urban and rural governance, local economic development, information and
communication system for urban planning and management, sustainable land management, eco-
sanitation and waste management.

They called on the Economic Community of West African States to create a territorial
development strategy for West Africa that would focus on climate change, key infrastructure
gaps and the role of human settlements in building competitive economies.

They urged the Commonwealth to endorse the findings of the scoping study on the state of
Commonwealth cities and to recognise the need for proper monitoring of urban change
benchmarking of the cities and exchange of practices through action research.

According to the communiqu, inclusive community participation, and public-private partnership

in the provision and management of infrastructural facilities and services should be encouraged
and sustained.

The participants urged Commonwealth planners in West Africa to partner intensively within the
region and with those in other regions of the world, the UN-HABITAT, other international
organisations and development partners for a more equitable, sustainable and liveable future
human settlements.

The workshop concluded that with the Memorandum of Understanding in place to guide the
operations of the West Africa Planners Association, the first agenda-setting meeting of the
Anglophone and Francophone member institutes would hold in Togo in 2010.

The workshop had brought together planners from Scotland, France, Ghana, Benin Republic,
Togo and Nigeria.

The Deputy Governor of Lagos State, Mrs. Sarah Sosan, represented by the Commissioner for
Physical Planning and Urban Development, Mr. Bolaji Abosede, presented a key note address at
the gathering. A goodwill message from the CAP President, Christine Platt, was delivered by the
Secretary-General of the association, Prof. Cliff Hague. Other goodwill messages were delivered
by the CAP Vice-President, West Africa, Dr. Chijioke Odimuko; a representative of France, Mr.
Nicolas Detrie; President, Ghana Institute of Planners, Mr. Frank Tackie; and President, Town
Planners Registration Council of Nigeria, Mr. Grema Ndirbulla.

Participants were informed of the efforts of the Lagos State Government to accommodate the
urbanisation challenges facing Nigerias first mega city with an area of 3,577 square kilometres
and current population of over 18 million, which was expected to rise to 24.5 million in 2015.

The participants noted that the Commonwealth urban population was increasing by 65,000
people everyday and that the trend would continue into the future, noting also that about half of
the increase was in slums.
The workshop also acknowledged that climate change and natural disasters were already
impacting on millions of Commonwealth citizens, and expressed concern that waste, traffic
congestion and air pollution were blighting the cities.

The workshop noted that there could be no meaningful economic integration in the
Commonwealth region without adequate physical planning and liveable human settlements.

Urban Transport Problems

Author: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

1. Challenges Facing Urban Transportation

Cities are locations having a high level of accumulation and concentration of economic
activities and are complex spatial structures that are supported by transport systems. The most
important transport problems are often related to urban areas and take place when transport
systems, for a variety of reasons, cannot satisfy the numerous requirements of urban mobility.
Urban productivity is highly dependent on the efficiency of its transport system to move labor,
consumers and freight between multiple origins and destinations. Additionally, important
transport terminals such as ports, airports, and railyards are located within urban areas,
contributing to a specific array of problems. Some problems are ancient, like congestion (which
plagued cities such as Rome), while others are new like urban freight distribution or
environmental impacts. Among the most notable urban transport problems are:

Traffic congestion and parking difficulties. Congestion is one of the most prevalent
transport problems in large urban agglomerations, usually above a threshold of about 1
million inhabitants. It is particularly linked with motorization and the diffusion of the
automobile, which has increased the demand for transport infrastructures. However, the
supply of infrastructures has often not been able to keep up with the growth of mobility.
Since vehicles spend the majority of the time parked, motorization has expanded
the demand for parking space, which has created space consumption problems
particularly in central areas; the spatial imprint of parked vehicles is significant.
Longer commuting. On par with congestion people are spending an increasing amount
of time commuting between their residence and workplace. An important factor behind
this trend is related to residential affordability as housing located further away from
central areas (where most of the employment remains) is more affordable. Therefore,
commuters are trading time for housing affordability. However, long commuting is
linked with several social problems, such as isolation, as well as poorer health (obesity).
Public transport inadequacy. Many public transit systems, or parts of them, are either
over or under used. During peak hours, crowdedness creates discomfort for users as the
system copes with a temporary surge in demand. Low ridership makes many services
financially unsustainable, particularly in suburban areas. In spite of significant subsidies
and cross-financing (e.g. tolls) almost every public transit systems cannot generate
sufficient income to cover its operating and capital costs. While in the past deficits were
 deemed acceptable because of the essential service public transit was providing for urban
mobility, its financial burden is increasingly controversial.
Difficulties for non-motorized transport. These difficulties are either the outcome of
intense traffic, where the mobility of pedestrians, bicycles and vehicles is impaired, but
also because of a blatant lack of consideration for pedestrians and bicycles in the physical
design of infrastructures and facilities.
Loss of public space. The majority of roads are publicly owned and free of access.
Increased traffic has adverse impacts on public activities which once crowded the streets
such as markets, agoras, parades and processions, games, and community interactions.
These have gradually disappeared to be replaced by automobiles. In many cases, these
activities have shifted to shopping malls while in other cases, they have been abandoned
altogether. Traffic flows influence the life and interactions of residents and their usage of
street space. More traffic impedes social interactions and street activities. People tend to
walk and cycle less when traffic is high.
Environmental impacts and energy consumption. Pollution, including noise, generated
by circulation has become a serious impediment to the quality of life and even the health
of urban populations. Further, energy consumption by urban transportation has
dramatically increased and so the dependency on petroleum. Yet, peak oil considerations
are increasingly linked with peak mobility expectations where high energy prices incite a
shift towards more efficient and sustainable forms of urban transportation, namely public
transit.
Accidents and safety. Growing traffic in urban areas is linked with a growing number of
accidents and fatalities, especially in developing countries. Accidents account for a
significant share of recurring delays. As traffic increases, people feel less safe to use the
streets.
Land consumption. The territorial imprint of transportation is significant, particularly
for the automobile. Between 30 and 60% of a metropolitan area may be devoted to
transportation, an outcome of the over-reliance on some forms of urban transportation.
Yet, this land consumption also underlines the strategic importance of transportation in
the economic and social welfare of cities.
Freight distribution. Globalization and the materialization of the economy have resulted
in growing quantities of freight moving within cities. As freight traffic commonly shares
infrastructures with the circulation of passengers, the mobility of freight in urban areas
has become increasingly problematic. City logistics strategies can be established to
mitigate the variety of challenges faced by urban freight distribution.

Many dimensions to the urban transport problem are linked with the dominance of the
automobile.

2. Automobile Dependency

Automobile use is obviously related to a variety of advantages such as on demand mobility,

comfort, status, speed, and convenience. These advantages jointly illustrate why automobile
ownership continues to grow worldwide, especially in urban areas. When given the choice and
the opportunity, most individuals will prefer using an automobile. Several factors influence the
growth of the total vehicle fleet, such as sustained economic growth (increase in income and
quality of life), complex individual urban movement patterns (many households have more than
one automobile), more leisure time and suburbanization. Therefore, rising automobile mobility
can be perceived as a positive consequence of economic development. The acute growth in the
total number of vehicles also gives rise to congestion at peak traffic hours on major
thoroughfares, in business districts and often throughout the metropolitan area.

Cities are important generators and attractors of movements, which have created a set
ofgeographical paradoxes that are self-reinforcing. For instance, specialization leads to additional
transport demands while agglomeration leads to congestion. Over time, a state of automobile
dependency has emerged which results in a diminution in the role of other modes, thereby
limiting still further alternatives to urban mobility. In addition to the factors contributing to the
growth of driving, two major factors contributing to automobile dependency are:

Underpricing and consumer choices. Most road infrastructures are subsidized as they
are considered a public service. Consequently, drivers do not bear the full cost of
automobile use. Like the "Tragedy of the Commons", when a resource is free of access
(road), it tends to be overused and abused (congestion). This is also reflected in consumer
choice, where automobile ownership is a symbol of status, freedom and prestige,
especially in developing countries. Single home ownership also reinforces automobile
dependency.
Planning and investment practices. Planning and the ensuing allocation of public funds
aim towards improving road and parking facilities in an ongoing attempt to avoid
congestion. Other transportation alternatives tend to be disregarded. In many cases,
zoning regulations impose minimum standards of road and parking services and de facto
impose a regulated automobile dependency.

There are several levels of automobile dependency, ranging from low to acute, with their
corresponding land use patterns and alternatives to mobility. Among the most relevantindicators
of automobile dependency are the level of vehicle ownership, per capita motor vehicle mileage
and the proportion of total commuting trips made using an automobile. A situation of high
automobile dependency is reached when more than three quarters of commuting trips are done
using the automobile. For the United States, this proportion has remained around 88% over the
recent decades. Automobile dependency is also served by a cultural and commercial system
promoting the automobile as a symbol of status and personal freedom, namely through intense
advertising and enticements to purchase new automobiles. Not surprisingly, many developing
countries perceive motorization as a condition for development. Even if the term automobile
dependency is often negatively perceived and favored by market distortions such as the provision
of roads, its outcome reflects the choice of individuals who see the automobile more as an
advantage then an inconvenience.

The second half of the 20th century saw the adaptation of many cities in North America and
Europe to automobile circulation. Motorized transportation was seen as a powerful symbol of
modernity and development. Highways were constructed, streets were enlarged, and parking lots
were set often disrupting the existing urban fabric with the creation of motorized cities.
However, from the 1980s, motorization started to be seen more negatively and several cities
implemented policies to limit automobile circulation, at least in specific areas, by a set of
strategies including:

Dissuasion. Although automobile circulation is permitted, it is impeded by regulations

and physical planning. For instance, parking space can be severely limited and speed
bumps placed to force speed reduction.
Prohibition of downtown circulation. During most of the day the downtown area is
closed to automobile circulation but deliveries are permitted during the night. Such
strategies are often undertaken to protect the character and the physical infrastructures of
an historical city. They do however, like most policies, have unintended consequences. If
mobility is restrained in certain locations or during certain time periods, people will
simply go elsewhere (longer movements) or defer their mobility for another time (more
movements).
Tolls. Imposing tolls for parking and entry (congestion pricing) to some parts of the city
has been a strategy being considered seriously in many area as it confers the potential
advantage of congestion mitigation and revenue generation. Most evidence underlines
however that drivers are willing to bear additional toll costs, especially for commuting
since it is linked with their main income.

Tentative solutions have been put forth such as transport planning measures (synchronized traffic
lights, regulated parking), limited vehicle traffic in selected areas, the promotion of bicycle paths
and public transit. In Mexico City, vehicle use is prohibited according to license plate numbers
and the date (even-uneven). Affluent families have solved this issue by purchasing a second
vehicle, thus worsening the existing situation. Singapore is the only country in the world which
has successfully controlled the amount and growth rate of its vehicle fleet by imposing a heavy
tax burden and purchasing permits on automobile owners. Such a command-based approach is
unlikely to be possible on other contexts.

There is a growing body of evidence underlining that a peak level of car mobility is unfolding,
at least in developed countries. Higher energy prices, congestion and the general aging of the
population are all countervailing forces to car dependency. For instance, since 2006 the amount
of vehicle-miles traveled in the United States has peaked, a process associated with higher
energy prices and a strong recession. There are many alternatives to automobile dependency such
as intermodality (combining the advantages of individual and collective transport), carpooling
(strengthened by policy and regulation by the US government) or non-motorized transportation
(walking and cycling). These alternatives can only be partially implemented as the automobile
remains on the short and medium terms the prime choice for providing urban mobility.

3. Congestion

Congestion occurs when transport demand exceeds transport supply at a specific point in
time and in a specific section of the transport system. Under such circumstances, each vehicle
impairs the mobility of others.

Congestion can be perceived as an unavoidable consequence of the usage of scarce transport

resources, particularly if they are not priced. The last decades have seen the extension of roads in
rural but particularly in urban areas, most of them free of access. Those infrastructures were
designed for speed and high capacity, but the growth of urban circulation occurred at a rate
higher than often expected. Investments came from diverse levels of government with a view to
provide accessibility to cities and regions. There were strong incentives for the expansion of road
transportation by providing high levels of transport supply. This has created a vicious circle of
congestion which supports the construction of additional road capacity and automobile
dependency. Urban congestion mainly concerns two domains of circulation, often sharing the
same infrastructures:

Passengers. In many regions of the world incomes have significantly increased to the
point that one automobile per household or more is common. Access to an automobile
conveys flexibility in terms of the choice of origin, destination and travel time. The
automobile is favored at the expense of other modes for most trips, including commuting.
For instance, automobiles account for the bulk of commuting trips in the United States.
Freight. Several industries have shifted their transport needs to trucking, thereby
increasing the usage of road infrastructure. Since cities are the main destinations for
freight flows (either for consumption or for transfer to other locations) trucking adds to
further congestion in urban areas. The "last mile" problem remains particularly prevalent
for freight distribution in urban areas. Congestion is commonly linked with a drop in the
frequency of deliveries tying additional capacity to insure a similar level of service.

It is important to underline that congestion in urban areas is dominantly caused by commuting

patterns and little by truck movements. On average, infrastructure provision was not able to keep
up with the growth in the number of vehicles, even more with the total number of vehicles-km.
During infrastructure improvement and construction, capacity impairment (fewer available lanes,
closed sections, etc.) favors congestion. Important travel delays occur when the capacity limit is
reached or exceeded, which is the case of almost all metropolitan areas. In the largest cities such
as London, road traffic is actually slower than it was 100 years ago. Marginal delays are thus
increasing and driving speed becomes problematic as the level of population density increases.
Once a population threshold of about 1 million is reached, cities start to experience recurring
congestion problems. This observation must be nuanced by numerous factors related to the urban
setting, modal preferences and the quality of existing urban transport infrastructures. Still, large
cities have become congested most of the day, and congestion is getting more acute. Another
important consideration concerns parking, which consumes large amounts of space and provides
limited economic benefit. In automobile dependent cities, this can be very constraining as each
economic activity has to provide an amount of parking space proportional to their level of
activity. Parking has become a land use that greatly inflates the demand for urban land.

Urban mobility also reveals congestion patterns. Daily trips can be either mandatory
(workplace-home) or voluntary (shopping, leisure, visits). The former is often performed
within fixed schedules while the latter complies with variable and discretionary schedules.
Correspondingly, congestion comes in two major forms:

Recurrent congestion. The consequence of factors that cause regular demand surges on
the transportation system, such as commuting, shopping or weekend trips. However, even
recurrent congestion can have unforeseen impacts in terms of its duration and severity.
 Mandatory trips are mainly responsible for the peaks in circulation flows, implying that
about half the congestion in urban areas is recurring at specific times of the day and on
specific segments of the transport system.
Non-recurrent congestion. The other half of congestion is caused by random
eventssuch as accidents and unusual weather conditions (rain, snowstorms, etc.), which
are unexpected and unplanned. Non-recurrent congestion is linked to the presence and
effectiveness of incident response strategies. As far as accidents are concerned, their
randomness is influenced by the level of traffic as the higher the traffic on specific road
segments the higher the probability of accidents.

Behavioral and response time effects are also important as in a system running close to capacity,
simply breaking suddenly may trigger what can be known as a backward traveling wave. It
implies that as vehicles are forced to stop, the bottleneck moves up the location it initially took
place at, often leaving drivers puzzled about its cause. The spatial convergence of traffic causes a
surcharge on transport infrastructures up to the point where congestion can lead to the total
immobilization of traffic. Not only does the massive use of the automobile have an impact on
traffic circulation and congestion, but it also leads to thedecline in public transit
efficiency when both are sharing the same roads.

4. Mitigating Congestion

In some areas, the automobile is the only mode for which infrastructures are provided. This
implies less capacity for using alternative modes such transit, walking and cycling. At some
levels of density, no public infrastructure investment can be justified in terms of economic
returns. Longer commuting trips in terms of average travel time, the result of fragmented land
uses and congestion levels are a significant trend. Convergence of traffic at major highways that
serve vast low density areas with high levels of automobile ownership and low levels of
automobile occupancy. The result is energy (fuel) wasted during congestion (additional time)
and supplementary commuting distances. In automobile dependent cities, a few measures can
help alleviate congestion to some extent:

Ramp metering. Controlling the access to a congested highway by letting automobiles in

one at a time instead of in groups. The outcome is a lower disruption on highway traffic
flows.
Traffic signal synchronization. Tuning the traffic signals to the time and direction of
traffic flows. This is particularly effective if the signals can be adjusted on an hourly
basis to reflect changes in commuting patterns.
Incident management. Making sure that vehicles involved in accidents or mechanical
failures are removed as quickly as possible from the road. Since accident on average
account between 20 and 30% of all the causes of congestion, this strategy is particularly
important.
Carpooling. Concerns two issues. The first and most common is an individual providing
ridership to people (often co-workers) having a similar origin, destination and commuting
time. Two or more vehicle trips can thus be combined into one. The second involves a
pool of vehicles (mostly cars, but also bicycles) that can be leased for short durations
 when mobility is required. Adequate measures must be taken so that supply and demand
are effectively matched.
HOV lanes. High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes insure that vehicles with 2 or more
passengers (buses, vans, carpool, etc.) have exclusive access to a less congested lane,
particularly during peak hours.
Congestion pricing. A variety of measures aimed at imposing charges on specific
segments or regions of the transport system, mainly as a toll. The charges can also change
during the day to reflect congestion levels so that drivers are incited to consider other
time periods or other modes.
Public transit. Offering alternatives to driving that can significantly improve efficiency,
notably if it circulates on its own infrastructure (subway, light rail, buses on reserved
lanes, etc.) and is well integrated within a city's development plans. However, public
transit has its own set of issues (see next section).
Non-motorized transportation. Since the great majority of urban trips are over short
distances, non-motorized modes, particularly walking and cycling, have an important roll
to play in supporting urban mobility. The provision of adequate infrastructure, such as
sidewalks, is often a low priority as non-motorized transportation is often perceived as
not modern in spite of the important role it needs to assume in urban areas.

All these measures only partially address the issue of congestion, as they alleviate, but do not
solve the problem. Fundamentally, congestion remains a failure at reconciling mobility demands
and acute supply constraints.

5. The Urban Transit Challenge

As cities continue to become more dispersed, the cost of building and operating public
transportation systems increases. For instance, only about 80 large urban agglomerations have
a subway system, the great majority of them being in developed countries. Furthermore,
dispersed residential patterns characteristic of automobile dependent citiesmakes public
transportation systems less convenient to support urban mobility. In many cities additional
investments in public transit did not result in significant additional ridership. Unplanned and
uncoordinated land development has led to rapid expansion of the urban periphery. Residents, by
selecting housing in outlying areas, restrict their potential access to public transportation. Over-
investment (when investments do not appear to imply significant benefits) and under-investment
(when there is a substantial unmet demand) in public transit are both complex challenges.

Urban transit is often perceived as the most efficient transportation mode for urban areas,
notably large cities. However, surveys reveal a stagnation or a decline of public transit systems,
especially in North America. The economic relevance of public transit is being questioned. Most
urban transit developments had little, if any impacts to alleviate congestion in spite of
mounting costs and heavy subsidies. This paradox is partially explained by the spatial structure
of contemporary cities which are oriented along servicing the needs of the individual, not
necessarily the needs of the collectivity. Thus, the automobile remains the preferred mode of
urban transportation. In addition, public transit is publicly owned, implying that it is a politically
motivated service that provides limited economic returns. Even in transit-oriented cities such as
in Europe, transit systems depend massively on government subsidies. Little or no competition is
permitted as wages and fares are regulated, undermining any price adjustments to changes in
ridership. Thus, public transit often serves the purpose of a social function (public service) as it
provides accessibility and social equity, but with limited relationships with economic activities.
Among the most difficult challenges facing urban transit are:

Decentralization. Public transit systems are not designed to service low density and
scattered urban areas that are increasingly dominating the landscape. The greater the
decentralization of urban activities, the more difficult and expensive it becomes to serve
urban areas with public transit. Additionally, decentralization promotes long distance
trips on transit systems causing higher operating costs and revenue issues for flat fare
transit systems.
Fixity. The infrastructures of several public transit systems, notably rail and subway
systems are fixed, while cities are dynamical entities, even if the pace of change can take
decades. This implies that travel patterns tend to change and that a transit system built for
servicing a specific pattern may eventually face "spatial obsolescence".
Connectivity. Public transit systems are often independent from other modes and
terminals. It is consequently difficult to transfer passengers from one system to the other.
This lead to a paradox between the preference of riders to have direct connections and the
need to provide a cost efficient service network that involves transfers.
Competition. In view of cheap and ubiquitous road transport systems, public transit
faced strong competition and loss ridership in relative terms and in some cases in
absolute terms. The higher the level of automobile dependency, the more inappropriate
the public transit level of service. The public service being offered is simply outpaced by
the convenience of the automobile. However, changes in energy prices are likely to
impose a new equilibrium in this relationship.
Financing and fare structures. Most public transit systems have abandoned a distance-
based fare structure to a simpler flat fare system. This had the unintended consequence of
discouraging short trips for which most transit systems are well suited for, and
encouraging longer trips that tend to be more costly per user than the fares they generate.
Information systems offer the possibility for transit systems to move back to a more
equitable distance based fare structure.
Legacy costs. Most public transit systems employ unionized labor that have consistently
used strikes (or the threat of a strike) and the acute disruptions they create as leverage to
negotiate favorable contracts, including health and retirement benefits. Since public
transit is subsidized these costs were not well reflected in the fare systems. In many
transit systems, additional subsidies went into compensation or to cover past debt, and
not necessarily into performance improvements or additional infrastructure. As most
governments are facing stringent budgetary constraints because of unsustainable social
welfare commitments, public transit agencies are being forced to reassess their budgets
through an unpopular mix of higher fares, deferred maintenance and the breaking of labor
contracts. The era of public transit as a welfare agency providing compensation and
benefits well above the qualifications and the productivity of its labor may be drawing to
an end.
[Chris Brown]
Youve got that smile,
That only heaven can make.
I pray to God everyday,
That you keep that smile.

[Justin Bieber]
Yeah, you are my dream,
Theres not a thing I wont do.
Ill give my life up for you,
Cos you are my dream.

[Bridge]
And baby, everything that I have is yours,
You will never go cold or hungry.
Ill be there when youre insecure,
Let you know that youre always lovely.
Girl, cos you are the only thing that I got right now

[Chorus]
One day when the sky is falling,
Ill be standing right next to you,
Right next to you.
Nothing will ever come between us,
Ill be standing right next to you,
Right next to you.

[Chris Brown]
You had my child,
You make my life complete.
Just to have your eyes on little me,
Thatd be mine forever.

[Bridge]
And baby, everything that I have is yours
You will never go cold or hungry
Ill be there when youre insecure
[ From: http://www.elyrics.net/read/j/justin-bieber-lyrics/next-to-you-lyrics.html ]
Let you know that youre always lovely

Girl, cos you are the only thing that I got right now

[Chorus]
One day when the sky is falling,
Ill be standing right next to you,
Right next to you.
Nothing will ever come between us,
Ill be standing right next to you,
Right next to you.

[Bridge]
Were made for one another
Me and you
And I have no fear
I know well make it through

One day when the sky is falling

Ill be standing right next to you
Ohh ohh ohh ohhhhh

[Chorus]
One day when the sky is falling,
Ill be standing right next to you,
Right next to you.
Nothing will ever come between us,
Ill be standing right next to you,
Right next to you.

Oh nah nah
Oh yeah
Stand by my side
When the sky falls
Oh baby
Ill be there

Youve got that smile,

That only heaven can make.
I pray to God everyday,
To keep you forever.