Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
Contact Information
Pete Shoemaker
Pacific Energy Center 851 Howard St. San Francisco, CA 94103 (415) 973-8850 pjsy@pge.com
PG&Es recent agreement with Solel-MSP-1 for 553 megawatts one of the worlds largest solar commitments is expected to be fully operational in 2011.
Customer on Net Metering tariffs have installed over 184 MW of solar generation
98 MW by residential customers; 86 MW by nonresidential customers An additional 127 MW has been installed by customers who are not taking advantage of the NEM tariff structure
5,000
6,000
Installations
5,000
4,000
Installations
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1 ,000
1 ,000
Agenda
Technology
Products System Design
Feasibility
Financing Location/Siting
Process
Installation Business Overview
11
Learning Objectives
TECHNOLOGY Become familiar with the basic types of PV cell/module technologies and how AC power is made Understand the concept of net metering in the context of electricity flow and billing FEASIBILITY Learn the current average costs of PV systems, before and after accounting for relevant incentives Identify the key siting issues that need to be considered for every potential PV project PROCESS Understand the sales and installation cycle and how to interpret PV bids Get an overview of the PV business and job opportunities
CURRENT
Same electricity
POSSIBLE
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
The basic economics are just like the rent vs. buy of purchasing a home.
13
Basic Terminology
CPUC: California Public Utilities Commission (sets policy) CEC: California Energy Commission (rates products) CSI: California Solar Initiative (main solar rebate program) NSHP: New Solar Homes Partnership (program for new homes) IOU: Investor-Owned Utility (like PG&E) MUNI: Municipal-Owned Utility (like SMUD) RPS: Renewable Portfolio Standard (how much green power a state or utility must have, and by what date) DC: Direct Current (produced by solar panels) AC: Alternating Current (used in the home) Efficiency: Measure of how much of the sunlight on a particular area is converted to electricity (%) Capacity: Total amount of power that a system produces
14
Agenda
Technology
Products System Design
Feasibility
Financing Location/Siting
Process
Installation Business Overview
15
Electricity Terms
Electricity Fundamentals
Watt (W) = Basic unit of Power
In generator: Capacity to do work In appliance (load): Requirement for work to be done Electrical terms: Amps x Volts = Watts 5A x 12V = 60 W 0.5A x 120V = 60 W
Electricity Fundamentals
Watt-hour (Wh) = Power over Time = Basic unit of Energy or Work
Watts x hours = Watt-hours
Wh
Wh
Kilowatt-hour (Kwh)
1 kWh = 1,000 Wh ==== costs about $0.14 on average
DC = Direct current
*PV panels produce DC *Batteries only store DC
AC = Alternating current
*Utility Power
PV Technology Overview
Source: Fafco
Source: NexTag
Solar Electricity
Produces electricity year-round
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
23
P-Layer (Boron)
PV Terminology
Cell Module Array
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
PV System Sizing
200 HP engine: means that 200 horsepower is the MAXIMUM it will produce.
4 kW PV system: means that 4,000 watts (4 kW) is the MAXIMUM it will produce in full sunlight.
Firm, like crystals Longest track record, over 50 years Most common, over 85% of the market Highest efficiencies: avg. 15%, up to 22% Requires about 100 sf. per kilowatt sf.
Source: DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory
31
Thin-Film PV Products
Thin-Film PV Products
Source: DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Can be applied on many different materials Longevity still to be proven Production growing at high rate Lower efficiencies: avg. 7%, up to 15% Has potential for big cost reduction Pacific Energy Center Requires about 200 sf. per kilowatt sf. San Francisco
33
Wattage Comparison
Monocrystalline (Single) Polycrystalline (Multi) Amorphous (Thin-Film)
75 Watts
80 Watts
43 Watts
PV General Rules
Crystalline PV Products Efficiencies (rated) range from 12-22% Space required: 90-150 s.f. per kW Thin-Film PV Products Efficiencies (rated) range from 5-10% Space required: 170-300 s.f. per kW
1.2 kW Thin-Film
Crystalline -0.478%
100 95 % of Power 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 20
(68)
25
30
(86)
35
40
45
(113)
50
55
Degrees Centigrade
(Fahrenheit)
60 (140)
65
70
Thin Film
Crystalline
Single Crystal
Multi-Crystalline
12 - 14%
19%
Thin-Film Materials
Near single-atom vapor or electro-deposition on low-cost materials (glass, stainless steel, or plastic). Modules can be flexible. Appearance dark charcoal to near black; can also be semitransparent. Cell and module production part of same process. Widely used in consumer products and on flexible substrates. Alternative semiconductor material under commercialization. Alternative semiconductor material under commercialization. 5 - 7% 13% BP Solar Kaneka Solar TerraSolar United Solar Ovonic Global Solar Shell Solar BP Solar First Solar
8 - 10%
19%
7 - 9%
17%
Inverters
Inverter
DC AC
41
Inverters
Range in size from 1 Kw to 225 Kw Can easily be connected together, even different models Best to locate in cooler area
42
Reliability
Source: NASA
43
Reliability
Mature technologyover 50 years old Essential to the space program Millions in use Products tested and approved by CEC Long warranties backed by large, stable companies -- 20 to 25 years on panels -- 10 years on inverters -- 10 year labor warranty
Pacific Energy Center San Francisco 44
Previously, there was only one solution: Store the excess in batteries during the day, then draw off the batteries at night, or when its cloudy. it
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
But now?
45
Net Metering
The utility grid is a twotwoway street! Electricity can be sent back to the grid by the back customer.
Source: Andy Black
X
Source: DOE NREL
PV System Types
Grid Interactive (On-Grid)
Grid tie only (no batteries) <= Todays focus Today Grid tie with battery backup
Both under net-metering arrangement
Stand-Alone (Off-Grid)
Battery backup
Metering
Loads
Source: PG&E
49
Net Metering
No voltage reservoir reservoir means house current could fluctuate and damage appliances
Net Metering
Average monthly usage kWh/mo PV system production
750
Roll over
500
250
May SUMMER
October WINTER
April
53
Net Metering
Average monthly usage kWh/mo PV system production
750
The surplus covers the shortfall, and your yearly bill is minimal.
500
250
May SUMMER
October WINTER
April
54
Net Metering
Average monthly usage kWh/mo PV system production
750
250
May SUMMER
October WINTER
April
55
Net Metering
Average monthly usage kWh/mo PV system production
750
500
250
May SUMMER
October WINTER
April
56
7pm - 9pm Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak Part-Peak 9pm - Midnight Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak Off-Peak
Peak rates in Summer Afternoons 29/kWh + tier surcharges Part-Peak rates: 14/kWh + tiers Off-Peak rates (Nights & Weekends) 8.5-10/kWh + tiers
57
20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hours of the Day
20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hours of the Day
Sell Buy
20 15 10 5 0 1
Buy
3 4
7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hours of the Day
62
63
Cumulative charge
64
65
66
67
Review of Learning Objectives TECHNOLOGY Become familiar with the basic types of PV cell/module technologies and how AC power is made Understand the concept of net metering in the context of electricity flow and billing
68
Agenda
Technology
Products System Design
Feasibility
Financing Location/Siting
Process
Installation Business Overview
69
Environmental Footprint
Best overall estimates from 1 to 2.5 years Depends on site and power production--in production--in California is about 1.1 years. Shrinking as costs drop and production gets greener greener Pays back 10 to 30 times or more its environmental cost
Most PV manufacturing plants will have their own PV system on the roof.
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
Billion kWh
Soiling Factors
Three basic categories for rainy / dry season areas
Washed as often as necessary Washed once in July Never washed ~ 1.0 ~ 0.96 ~ 0.93
Adaptable Applications
Rooftop
Adaptable Applications
Ground Mounted
Adaptable Applications
Covered Parking
State Incentives
California Solar Initiative (CSI) Goal: Investment: Term: 3,000 MW of solar installed 1 Million Solar Roofs Roofs $3 billion 2007-2016 2007-
Outcome: Ensure CA leads nation in solar and meet 5% of states peak electricity demand with solar state Implementation: Via IOUs and Munis, except residential new Munis, construction, to be administered by the CEC
www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov
Solar PV: 300+ MW CA peak: >50,000 MW (solar 0.3%) CSI goal: 3,000 MW
kW
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Source: California Energy Commission (CEC)
Program Administrators
Program Administrators
PG&E
SCE
CCSE
(SDREO)
PG&E
SCE
SDG&E
Secure
Screens and tests equipment Requires long warranties Helps screen and check installers Standardizes production estimates
Easy
Helps installers handle everything
Baseline=guaranteed minimum amount of low cost electricity for everyone--all income levels.
Baseline allocation determined by geographic needs.
95
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Current Situation
PG&E monthly electric bill for a large home user:
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Current Situation
PG&E monthly electric bill for a large home user:
5 rate tiers
= $ 41.96 = $ 14.31 = $ 57.37 = $ 113.63 = $ 218.48 1,698.00 $ 445.75
1 2 3 4 5
98
37.1 32.2
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Less Than 100% 101% 130% 13
23
11.4
131% 200%
201% 300%
over 300%
99
Current Situation
The less you use, the more you eliminate the expensive upper tiers:
5 rate tiers
= $ 41.96 = $ 14.31 = $ 57.37 = $ 113.63 = $ 218.48 1,698.00 $ 445.75
1 2 3 4 5
100
Current Situation
The less you use, the more you eliminate the expensive upper tiers:
3 rate tiers
= $ 41.96 1 = $ 14.31 2 = $ 57.37 3 = $ 113.63 = $ 218.48 726.00 $ 113.64
costing
$113.64
37.1 32.2
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Less Than 100% 101% 130% 13
23
11.4
131% 200%
201% 300%
over 300%
102
Current Situation
Case study Electric bill: $100/month = $1200/year After 10 years you will have paid $12,000 if rates do not rise.
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Current Situation
Case study Electric bill: $100/month = $1200/year With inflation, after 10 years you likely will have paid $14,000 to $17,000 With nothing to show for it except higher electric bills ($150+/mo). No equity Nothing paid off off So the real question is
106
Return on Investment
Different ways to measure Payback: When savings = investment cost IRR (internal rate of return): Percentage of annual return which looks at full life cycle NPV (net present value): Cash flow projection which takes in financing costs Monthly Cash Flow: Change in your monthly payment
110
37.1 32.2
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Less Than 100% 101% 130% 13
23
11.4
Lower ROI
131% 200%
201% 300%
over 300%
Return on Investment
Ranges of values Payback: When savings = investment cost - from 8 to 18 years IRR (internal rate of return): Percentage of annual return which looks at full life cycle - From 5% to 15% NPV (net present value): Cash flow projection which takes in financing costs - Should always be greater than zero
113
Return on Investment
Monthly Cash Flow: Financed by a home-secured loan Loan interest is tax-deductible Assuming historical rate escalation continues Monthly cash flow can be immediately positive for many people with electric bills over $125 per month. They can start making money from day one and continue for over 30 years! Lower bill amounts will typically start out slightly negative and improve over time.
114
Installation Efficiencies
BIPV
Building Integrated Photovoltaics
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
PV Roof Tiles
Installation Efficiencies
Installation Efficiencies
Installation Efficiencies
PV Skylights
Source: DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Multiple Benefits
Mitigate unwanted solar heat gain Control glare Displace existing materials cost Produce electricity
Design Integration
Polished Stone $215 - $255 ft2 Photovoltaics $45 - $135 ft2 Stone $75+ ft2 Glass Wall Systems $50 - $75 ft2 Stainless Steel
PV Bulk Buy
Community targets for total Kw Can lead to 10% or more discounts Many companies offering it
Source: DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Resource Assessment Program http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/redbook/atlas/serve.cgi
Source: DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Resource Assessment Program http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html#maps
Weather: Microclimates
Weather Summary
California climate ideal for solar Panels produce in all light Fog has cooling effect, which raises efficiency Microclimates likely less than 15% loss from normal
131
Illustration from Environmental Control Systems by Fuller Moore, McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1993, p. 76.
PV Orientation
For tilted roof:
North
East
South
135
PV Orientation
N W E
S Overhead maps
Pacific Energy Center San Francisco
136
Horizon in winter
Horizon in summer
Source: Wikipedia
Tilt
12 ft. 4 ft.
18 deg.
Typical roof in this area is 4:12. For every 12 feet horizontal, it drops 4 feet. This equals 18 degrees up from horizontal.
0 23 45 68 90
18 30 4:12 7:12 0.97 1.00 0.97 0.99 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.91 0.88 0.84
Source: A Guide to Photovoltaic (PV) System Design and Installation -- CEC, June 2001
Unshaded Module
2.5
Amps
1.5
0.5
0 0 5 10 15 20 25
Volts
Solar Access
PV Requirements
Solar Window = 9 am - 3 pm (ideal) 8 am - 4 pm (possible) Need minimum of 4 hours during solar window with no shade (prefer 5 hours) Summer more important than winter
Shading
Sunset Sunrise
Solar Window
Shade-free from 9 to 3
Shading
No good
Solar Pathfinder
Used to gain a quick and approximate understanding of solar access and objects on the horizon that shade a given location. Latitude specific sun path diagram is placed in the pathfinder. The transparent, convex plastic dome reflects objects on the horizon, enabling the user to see the relationship between these objects and the path of the sun. Obstructions can be traced onto sunpath diagram.
Solmetric SunEyeTM
Handheld measurement device that accurately measures solar access and shading (about $1400)
Sunpath View
Visually demonstrates seasonal sun path and shading effects of obstructions Summary tabular data
Detailed View
Chart shows proportion of total solar energy available at this site each month
PV Requirements
Adequate Roof Area:
Crystalline Silicon
100-150 square feet per kW
Thin-Film
170-300 square feet per kW
Note: Consideration should also be given for access to the system (can add up to 20% of needed area)
Tracking
Courtesy of DOE/NREL
For most home systems, the extra expense and maintenance of tracking tracking motors is not worth the efficiency gain. Better to buy a few extra panels. extra For large commercial systems it may be worth it.
155
Roof Issues
Dont put a new PV system on an old roof!
Minimum roof life should be 5 7 years. Good idea to do PV and roof at same time Estimate for panel removal/replacement is $1,000 per Kw of system size.
Source: LondonFlatRoofing.co.uk
157
Agenda
Technology
Products System Design
Feasibility
Financing Location/Siting
Process
Installation Business Overview
158
Case Studies
Back of house
65
Front of house
N W S E
946 1127 1349 970 1093 1077 1349 867 886 768 815
836 12083 1007
Usage pattern normal Monthly average is good starting point Propose maximum size system and then work to customers budget customer Check for competitive bids, ask to see them
Total space is about 16,000 square feet, but how much is usable? Need site visit to determine.
Visual estimate about 60+% usable space. about 10,000 sf. total = 100 KW system maximum.
Average blended rate per Kwh = $ .16594 Average monthly bill = 31,000 x $ .16594 = $5,144 or about $5,000 per month.
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PV Installation Process
STEP 1: Complete an Energy Audit STEP 2: Contact and Choose an Installer INSTALLER HANDLES THE REST STEP 3: Complete and Submit Applications for CSI STEP 4: Install System STEP 5: Schedule Final Building Inspection STEP 6: Schedule Final Utility Inspection STEP 7: Claim Your Incentives
Building envelope
insulation, glazing, cool roofs
Find Installers
FindSolar.com
www.findsolar.com/index.php
Personal references
http://www.findsolar.com/index.php
Obtain Bids
Phone interview Site visit System design Bid presentation Bid comparison
http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/equipment/
http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/equipment/
DC is about 18% more, but misleading. AC is the important number, and if installer only gives DC numbers be suspicious and ask for AC size.
Monitoring
Extra hardware sends inverter data to internet Inverter company or 3rd party hosts website Customer can view system from home or remotely Current and historical data can be displayed
Can cost extra but some companies are offering it as standard package.
PV Business Overview
Integrators (retailers)
Management Sales Marketing Accounting Ordering Installation Service
Sales Marketing
Marketing: advertising, design & layout, partnerships Inside sales: phone screeners, field support Field reps: residential & commercial
Installation Service
Design & permitting: drafting, permit applications, coordination Crew supervision: crew chief, trainer Crews: Installers, apprentices
Accounting Ordering
Financial accounting, payroll Paperwork management, CSI applications Product supply, costs
Carbon Offsets
Making activity carbon neutral Funding projects that remove as much carbon as you generate Social & business image value PG&Es Climate Smart first such program in the country for utility customers
Wealth
PV Resources
Go Solar California www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov PG&E Solar Program www.pge.com/solar Expected Performance-Based Buydown Calculator Performance http://www.csi-epbb.com California Solar Center (Solar e-Clips) e www.californiasolarcenter.org/index.html California Solar Energy Industries Association www.calseia.org/index.html Northern California Solar Energy Association (NCSEA) www.norcalsolar.org US Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technologies Program www.eere.energy.gov/solar/photovoltaics.html Solarbuzz www.solarbuzz.com/index.asp
Contact Information
Pete Shoemaker
Pacific Energy Center 851 Howard St. San Francisco, CA 94103 (415) 973-8850 pjsy@pge.com