Morphodynamics of the North Sea bed using echo-sounding time series

- Applied to validating a re-survey policy involving shipping grounding dangers based on AIS data
Thainne A.G.P. van Dijk (Deltares & University Twente) Kees van der Tak, Erwin van Iperen (MARIN)
15 February 2012

Presentation
Introduction Sea bed morphology (marine bedforms) Echo sounding data

Introduction

Part 1 Morphodyn

Methods and Results: quantification sea bed dynamics Vertical dynamics NCS Morphodynamics of individual marine bedforms Methods and results: modelling grounding dangers from AIS data (MARIN) Regular grounding danger Object grounding danger Validation and optimisation of a re-survey policy Conclusions

Part 2 Application

Rationale
Bathymetry [m -GLLWS] + 2.72 m - 71.07 m

Introduction

Dynamic bedforms Local studies of seabed dynamics in the North Sea (e.g. offshore wind farm sites) Quantification of vertical dynamics NCS wide and detailed analyses of bedforms provide knowledge on the spatial variation of sea bed dynamics

Bathymetry NCS (TNO, 2004)

3

Marine bedforms

Introduction

sand banks

sand waves

Marine bedforms

Introduction

Bedform Offshore sand banks (tidal ridges) Long bed waves Sand waves megaripples

Wavelength (m) 1 000 10 000 1 000 2 000 100 1 000 7 40

Height (m) 5 - 50 1 - 10 1 10 <1

Orientation (degrees to tidal current) 0 - 30 60 90 90

Morphodynamic time scale (order of years) centuries centuries years-decades hours

(e.g. Ashley, 1990; Knaapen et al., 2001)

Echo sounding data

All bathymetric data in NLHOs Bathymetric Archive System (BAS) NLHO & RWS SBES & MBES Late 1980s June 2010 Non-digital data NLHO (fair sheets)

NLHO BAS

Quantification dynamics NCS: methods

Echo sounding dataset: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Time series of DEMs: Vertical dynamics NCS
z

Part 1: Morphodyn

dz/dt (vertical dynamic trend) label (e.g. n, stdv)

NLHO survey overview 2002

7

Vertical dynamics [m/year] based on the analysis of observations of NCS 25 x 25 m cells

Vertical dynamics NCS

Part 1: Morphodyn

First version: survey areas dominant

Correction vertical trend

Part 1: Morphodyn

removal of differences between surveys

Vertical dynamics NCS

Part 1: Morphodyn

Coast is dynamic: tidal inlets and tidal channels Estuaries NCS less dynamic Relatively dynamic on NCS: north of Texel west of Texel southern part with bedforms anthropogenic

10

Vertical dynamics NCS (simplified)

Part 1: Morphodyn

Dynamic areas NCS: Long bed wave field (n. Texel) Sand wave field (w. Texel) Southern NCS with bedforms

Non-dynamic areas NCS: > 30 m deep north of Wadden islands zone offshore North-Holland locally offshore South-Holland and Zealand

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Vertical dynamics of German Bight

Part 1: Morphodyn

Bed elevation range (m) data 1982 - 2004

(Winter, 2011)

Morphodynamics individual bedforms

Part 1: Morphodyn

1. Sand waves west of Texel & TWIN area 2. Long bed waves north of Texel 3. Shoreface-connected ridges north of Ameland

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Morphodynamics individual bedforms: method

Semi-automated method for the analysis of the morphology and morphodynamics of rhythmic bedforms (Van Dijk et al., 2008)

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Morphodynamics individual bedforms

1. Sand waves west of Texel

Part 1: Morphodyn

1. Sand waves west of Texel Sand wave migration rate: west of Texel: 19 m/yr NCS: 0 5 m/yr

min 100

L [m] av max 345 800

H [m] min av max 0.3 1.4 3.2

Morphodynamics individual bedforms

TWIN profile 1 (southwest to northeast)
Jan-91 Jun-92 Apr-94 May-95 Mar-99 Feb-01 May-01 Mar-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Oct-06

Part 1: Morphodyn

SW -30

NE

bed elevation [m -LAT]

-32

1. Sand waves south-west on the NCS (TWIN area) time series of 11 datasets Sand wave migration rate: ranges between -4.5 and +0.064 m/yr Average 1.5 m/yr to SW Sand wave growth: <0.2 m/yr

-34

-36 2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

distance along profile [m]

min 140

L [m] av max 270 380

H [m] min av max 2.5 4.8 7.3

16

Morphodynamics individual bedforms

Part 1: Morphodyn

2. Long bed waves north of Texel & Vlieland: migration 12.4 m/yr to NE (ranges from 10.5 to 18.4 m/yr)
-24 SW 1 2 4 5 NE

1990 2003 2009

bed elevation (m -LAT)

3 -26

-28

-30 0 3000 6000 distance along profile (m) 9000 12000

L [m] min 744 av 1125 max 1409 min 2.7

H [m] av 3.4 max 4.3

Morphodynamics individual bedforms

Part 1: Morphodyn

3. Shoreface-connected ridges north of Ameland and Schier: migration ~0 m/yr growth ~ 0 m/yr
seabed elevation around zero (m)
SSW NNE

1997,1998 2006

-5 0 5 10 15 20

L [m] min 4084 av 4614 max 5154 min 2.9

H [m] av 4.3 max 5.5

distance along profile (km)

Application to validating survey policies

Rationale: NLHO: hydrographic measurements for reliable nautical mapping Accuracy requirements defined by the International Hydrographic Organisation (IHO) No guidelines for the monitoring frequency (re-surveying policy) Increasing efficiency without diminishing safety
NLHOs re-survey policy for the NCS, 2007
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Part 2: Application

Modelling grounding dangers from AIS data

Two types of danger of running aground: limited water depth (regular grounding) (predicted) water depth unknown objects at the seabed (object grounding) estimate the probability of unknown objects at the seabed
1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

gcaptain.com

0.4 0.4

all

all new

Known objects at the sea bed Known new objects at the sea bed

probabability

probabability

0 0

5 5

10 10 height of obstruction height of obstruction

15 15

20 20

Distribution unknown objects at the sea bed

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Modelling grounding dangers from AIS data

Calculate the danger of running aground using safety margins
Non-critical situation Critical situation

If the actual margin > desired margin no grounding danger (= 0) If the actual margin < 0 ship certainly grounds If the actual margin < desired margin and > 0 probability of grounding

AIS-database
Automatic Identification System observation every two minutes

Part 2: Application

Traffic is allocated to cells (1 x 1 km) Per cel: number of ships with draught in classes of 1 m Danger when depth is smaller than the critical depth

AIS-data of 1 week in July 2009

Regular grounding danger

Part 2: Application

all ships year-1 km-2 with approach average to harbours respect to channels water depth (actual margin ma < 0) shallow shipping lane ma = WD(t) draught small areas Critical water depth = 4 spots DWRE draught +of Terschelling north UKC + 2 [m]

262,800 obs/year 10000, i.e. 1 in 26.28 observations is a ship with a negative margin 1 obs ~ 1 ship

Simplifications: Tides were neglected Waterdepth in 1 x 1 km cells (min-mean-max)

MARINs regular grounding danger on NCS for all ships per km2 per year
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Fig 8-1 MARIN-rapport 23407.620/4r

Object grounding danger

Part 2: Application

for mean water depth traffic lanesships year-1 km-2 Number of for which margin anchorage areas is exceeded based on probability unknown objects

Assumption: Known objects are not a danger, since these are marked. Simplifications: speed = 14 knots (deep ships) thus overestimation in anchorage areas, but here also higher probability for objects
MARINs object grounding danger on NCS for all ships per km2 per year
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Fig 8-6 MARIN-rapport 23407.620/4r

Validation of a re-survey policy

Part 2: Application

GIS-overlay method: re-survey policy combined grounding dangers for ships for water depth and unknown objects morphodynamics (dz/dt) as predicted water depths 2011, 2015, 2020

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Combined grounding dangers

Part 2: Application
CAT 1 at least every 2 years CAT 2 4 years CAT 3 6 years CAT 4 10 years CAT 5 15 years

0 very low low medium high

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Validation of categories
Category 1
occurrence of total (%)

Part 2: Application
CAT 1 at least every 2 years CAT 2 4 years CAT 3 6 years CAT 4 10 years CAT 5 15 years

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 10 11 20 21 22 23 30 31 32 33 combined grounding danger

Ca tegory 5
occurrence of total (%)
100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 10 11 20 21 22 23 30 31 32 33

com bine d grounding danger

A different distribution of classes will lead to different occurrences of dangers

0 very low low medium high

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Refinement of a re-survey policy

Part 2: Application

Steps towards a new plan 1. Category division based on danger maps 2. Assignment of re-survey frequencies to categories based on predictions Step 1 New plan alike existing policy in both division and distribution of categories Some sites show higher dangers (DWRE) Also areas where the resurvey frequency may be lowered Step 2 --> predictions

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Predicted water depths

Linear extrapolation dynamic trend

Part 2: Application

Difference maps

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Predicted grounding dangers

Regular grounding 2011 Object grounding 2011

Part 2: Application

2015 2020

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Development of grounding danger

Part 2: Application

Differences in combined dangers in the future, based on predicted water depths

2010 to 2011 2010 to 2015 2010 to 2020

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Conclusions
Quantified vertical dynamics of the NCS is the first overview study of the NCS highly dynamic coastal zone (> 0.3 m/yr) and less dynamic offshore dynamic offshore: marine bedforms (0 to 0.3 m/yr) non-dynamic: > 30 m water depth, north of Wadden islands, small areas (< 0.02 m/yr) Migration rates of individual marine bedforms: sand waves 0 5 m/yr NCS; 19 m/yr west of Texel long bed waves (1 location) 12.4 m/yr shoreface-connected ridges north of Wadden islands are nearly stable Morphodynamics can be used in the application of validating and optimising re-survey policies, variation of the occurrences of high and low dangers within one category pleads for rearrangement of the categories and re-survey frequencies assign re-survey frequencies by predicting the development of dangers in the future. Regular grounding danger largest in approach channels and some local areas (e.g. Deep Water Route East due to sand banks) Object grounding danger largest in traffic lanes and in anchorage areas

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Acknowledgements
Netherlands Hydrographic Office, Royal Netherlands Navy Provided all echo sounding data Financed the project

Rijkswaterstaat Provided echo sounding data

Maritime Simulation Centre Netherlands, Maritime Research Institute Netherlands modelled grounding dangers

Netherlands Coastguard
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Provided AIS data to MARIN

RWS-project 2011
Research project on the sea bed dynamics: Quantitative morphodynamics of approach channels and the river Waal Factors controlling the spatial and temporal morphodynamic variation Advice on re-survey plan

--- Thank you for your attention ----

Morphodynamic trend
(a) node (25,0)
5 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 4
5 4 y = 0.9214x - 0.6571 R2 = 0.8021 10

Elevation rate of 1 m/yr Goodness of fit = 1

y= x R =1
2

z (m)

(b) node (0,0)

5 4 3 2 1 0
0 2 4 6 8 10

(c) node (0,0) for different dt

y = 0.2724x + 0.5286 R = 0.4908

2

time (years) 3
2 1 0

10

Typen data
SBES
100 x 100 m
5743100

In addition

MBES
10 x 10 m
5805900

5743050

5805895

Digitale data uit BAS: reductie tot 1 observatie per 3x5m Gedigitaliseerde minuutbladen lagere resolutie
595260

5743000 530100

530150

530200

5805890 595250

595255

3 redenen van onzekerheid bij vergelijk: Breedte SBES straal: eerste reflectie (ondiepste punt binnen straal) Getijdereductie Ondiepste punt geselecteerd op minuurtbladen
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Vertical dynamics NCS

Part 1: Morphodyn

1. Tidal inlet between Vlieland and Terschelling

Objective 1: tijdseries

In addition

Stijgende trend in verticale dynamiek Periode van opneming geen groot effect op nauwkeurigheid Meeste tijdseries korter:

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Overzichten bij analyses morfodynamiek (Obj.3)

Aantal surveys in tijdserie Goodness of fit, R2

In addition

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