Characterizing Decline 1

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline
Tom Carter
Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Adaptation
Chesya Polevychok
Research Associate
November 2003
Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Adaptation The Institute of Urban Studies The University of Winnipeg
Preface
One of the priority research themes of The Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Adaptation is inner city decline and revitalization. This is a theme that has been the focus of considerable work over the past three or four decades. A great deal of work remains to be done in this area but additional work should build on past research. This paper entitled Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline provides a comprehensive review of past work on the decline of urban neighbourhoods. Drawing on Canadian and international literature the report highlights the nature of decline, the common features of decline and the important indicators that help us identify the process of decline. Case study material from many cities, providing an opportunity for inter-city comparisons on both national and international bases, is incorporated. This comprehensive literature review provides some of the basic knowledge necessary to inform a more focused research program in this theme area. This document also represents a useful resource for students working in the field of urban geography, urban and city planning, as well as other disciplines such as sociology, politics, economics and environmental studies. This report will be followed by a second basic support document that focuses on theories and models of urban decline. Together these reports will highlight the basic knowledge we have in this area of research, the lessons we have learned and provide a basis for identification of future research initiatives that will contribute to our understanding of urban decline and revitalization. I would like to thank Chesya Polevychok for the many hours of work she has invested in this report and her dedication in synthesizing an extensive body of literature. We look forward to comments and suggestions from readers.
Tom Carter Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Adaptation
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 2. Characterization of Declining Inner-City Neighbourhoods

2.1. General Geographic Models of Decline 2.2. The United States Experience
2.2.1. Chicago: Business and Population Decline on the South Side 2.2.2. Washington: Distressed Neighbourhoods Illustrate Differences 2.2.3. New Orleans: Business Disinvestment 2.2.4. Baltimore: Classic Case Studies in Decline 2.2.5. Milwaukee: The Geographic Spread of Decline 2.2.6. Houston and Seattle: The Effects of Highway Improvements 2.2.7. Kalamazoo: Public Image Problems 2.2.8. Atlanta: Regional as Oppose to an Inner-City Focus 2.2.9. Inner-City Focus on Decline is Too Geographically Confined 2.2.10. Suburban Decline
1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 16 17 18 19 22 23 25 27 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 36 36 38 40
2.3. The European Experience

2.3.1. The British Experience
2.4. The Australian Experience 2.5. Are Canadian Cities Different?
3. Common Features of Decline

3.1. Poverty and Segregation 3.2. Vacant and Abandoned Property 3.3. Disinvestment and Economic Decline 3.4. Changing Land Uses 3.5. Decline of Public Education
4. Indicators of Decline
4.1. Neighbourhood indicators
4.1.1. Secondary Data 4.1.2. Primary Data
4.2. The American Experience: Measuring Neighbourhood Change

4.2.1. Milwaukee: Targeting a First-Time Parents Program 4.2.2. Cleveland: Community-Building Initiative
4.3. The British Experience: The Concept of Deprivation 4.4. The Canadian Experience
4.4.1. Winnipeg: Defining Neighbourhood Designation Indicators
5. Conclusions List of References
1. Introduction
The second half of the 20th century has witnessed the decline of entire neighbourhoods in many North American cities. Inner-city areas became increasingly disconnected from the benefits of improvements in wealth and from the intended policy effects aimed at revitalizing their social and physical fabrics. Residents were moving from inner cities to suburbs where they found a safer environment, better quality housing, better schools, and less congestion. A lack of capital investment in the older cities added to the migration of people and jobs. Suburban growth very quickly became a more profitable line of business for financial institutions; inner-city lending was difficult and costly. A practice of redlining, where entire neighbourhoods were declared off limits by lenders and insurers, was not uncommon. With access to capital shut off, the downward spiral of decline escalated (The Howell Group 2001). The problems facing declining communities are complex and raise a number of questions that need to be addressed. Some include: how do factors like the concentration of poverty, housing policy, or transport alternatives contribute to decline? Is decline a result of structural factors such as the loss of traditional industries and the changing nature of employment? What role do market forces such as housing supply and quality play? How does the decline in local services affect these neighbourhoods? How do the characteristics of decaying areas influence the choice of people who refuse to live in them or invest in them and how does this choice make the situation worse? (Glennerster at el. 1999). Although substantial evidence exists of the coincidence of certain problems in inner cities, there has been little done to show how these problems interact. This demands an understanding of the links between different causes of decline and the characteristics associated with decline. Comprehensive neighbourhood studies conducted over time help to track these interconnected problems, and determine how they vary from city to city and one country to another. The discussion that follows will: illustrate the diversity that exists in older neighbourhoods; document the level and nature of decline in "stressed" neighbourhoods; and compare inner-city to suburban and metropolitan area statistics to highlight differences and similarities. The discussion incorporates both national and international material drawing heavily on literature from the United States, Canada, Britain and Australia. This review of the literature and synthesis of the knowledge that exists will enhance our understanding of the nature of decline and lay the basis for the evaluation and development of intervention programs.
2. Characterization of Declining Inner-City Neighbourhoods 2.1. General Geographic Models of Decline

The period since the early 1960s has, for many central cities, been marked by dramatic decline in both the social and physical infrastructure of inner-city neighbourhoods. Areas that once had thriving businesses and strong communities have been transformed into neighbourhoods with abandoned buildings and jobless residents (Wilson 1987, 1996; Jargowsky 1996; Koebel 1996; Madden 2000; Cohen 2001; CMHC 2001; Lynn and McGeary 1990; Smith 1973; Jones 1979; Robson 1988; Carley 1990; Glennerster et al. 1999; Randolph and Judd 1999; Townsend 1987). Among OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, two general groupings can be distinguished: those with a strong geographical concentration of urban decline, showing consistent disparities between these areas and the rest of the city (e.g. France, Ireland, the UK and the USA); and those who may have areas of high relative unemployment and low relative income but where these characteristics do not appear to be linked as closely to other signs of multiple deprivation as they are in the first group (e.g. Canada, Finland, Spain and Sweden) (Kamal-Chaoui 2001). In some countries, decline is mainly located in city centres. This is the case of the United States and Canada, where many metropolitan areas have been emptied, with not only residents but also economic activities relocating to suburban areas. In other countries, urban decline develops in peripheral areas, generally associated with large, multi-family social housing units have been built on greenfield sites on the periphery of the city or in neighbouring municipalities as part of a planned expansion to cope with population growth (Carley 1990, Kamal-Chaoui 2001, Randolph and Judd 1999). These areas were also designed to re-house low-income families displaced by inner-city redevelopment projects. As a result, many of these outlying housing estates were poorly served by road links or public transportation and lacked amenities such as day care centres and schools, and community, cultural and leisure facilities. This pattern is typical of France, but similar developments can be found in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries and major cities in Southern Europe (Kamal-Chaoui 2001). Certain cities combine the two types of models. In some cases, the mix is a deliberate outcome of government policy.
2.2. The United States Experience

Serious social, economic, and physical problems face the American city. As noted by Koebel (1996, pp.6-7):
The shift of population to the suburbs started slowly in the 1950s, accelerated in the1970s, and peaked in the 1980s. The middle class - both white and black - in large measure moved to the suburbs. Sensitive to the location of affluence, retail trade
Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline soon followed. Ringed by affluent suburbs, the city1 was virtually the only place open to the poor within the metropolitan landscape. Loss of population and trade were soon accompanied by the erosion of the citys primary strength - industry. Changes in technology and the emergence of a world economy weakened the competitive position of the citys industrial infrastructure and its unionized labor force Depleted of its resources, disadvantaged by aged and obsolete infrastructure, strapped with an increasingly dependent population, the central city faces an unprecedented crisis.
Researchers report that during the 1980s the differences in income and other social and economic characteristics between suburban and city residents within U.S. metropolitan areas have increased (Cutler and Glaeser 1995; Madden 2000). The average poverty rate increased by over 9 per cent in metropolitan areas and by almost 18 per cent in their central cities. The acceleration in the violent crime rate in central cities is often identified as one of the most powerful statistics. In the 1950s and into the early 1960s the violent crime rate in Central American cities remained at roughly 175 incidents per 100,000 persons. From then on it rose rapidly, peaking at 750 per 100,000 in the early 1990s (The Howell Group 2001). It is important to keep in mind that not all U.S. cities experienced decline. Among the nations largest urban areas, there are many - on the West Coast, in the Sunbelt, and in the Southeast - that have been booming financially and economically for the past 20 years. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Arlington and Austin, Sacramento and San Diego, Raleigh and Charlotte, and Jacksonville, all have rapidly rising incomes, populations, and employment and low poverty and crime rates (Moore and Stansel 1994). The following case study material drawn from the literature highlights the nature and characteristics of decline in selected American cities. 2.2.1. Chicago: Business and Population Decline on the South Side In his book When Work Disappears (1996), Harvard sociologist William Julius Wilson refers to Woodlawn, a neighbourhood on the south side of Chicago, as an example of social decline. In the 1950s, Woodlawn had over 800 businesses. In 1996 only about 100 of them were left, mostly represented by tiny catering shops, barbershops, and thrift stores with no more than 1 or 2 employees. The population of the neighbourhood declined from over 80,000 in 1960 to 36,323 in 1980. By 1990, Woodlawn only had 24,473 residents - a decline of almost 70% since 1960 (ibid.). In a black respondents survey, conducted by Wilson, residents of inner-city neighbourhoods raised concerns about crime and violence, diminished personal hope, public education, and drug consumption. Only 23% of the survey respondents indicated a preference to remain in their own neighbourhood (ibid.).
The city in this case refers to the older residential neighbourhoods and to original central business district.
Two black neighbourhoods on Chicago's south side - Douglas and Grand Boulevard were examined by Boyd (2000). The borders of the neighbourhoods were originally determined by white resistance to black migration. Later, white neighbourhood institutions used urban renewal projects to expand their campuses and construct middleincome housing developments as a buffer against the surrounding neighbourhood. The racial segregation policies, federal mortgage financing and highway construction concentrated blacks into Douglas and Grand Boulevard. The loss of manufacturing employment in the late 1960s and 1970s further impoverished the low-skilled black population. By the late 1970s, the neighbourhoods contained the largest concentration of public housing in the country; their populations had dropped to half their previous amount, and they were populated with mainly low-income renters, more than half of whom survived on incomes below the poverty line. The segregation processes also influenced the class distribution within Douglas and Grand Boulevard: the poorest were isolated into distinct parts of the neighbourhoods, while at the same time helping to create pockets of affluence, concentrated primarily at the northern end (ibid.). 2.2.2. Washington: Distressed Neighbourhoods Illustrate Differences Turner and Hayes (1997) analyse demographic and socio-economic conditions in Washingtons distressed neighbourhoods and the metropolitan area. The scholars identify several severe challenges threatening the neighbourhoods: ! Almost half (47.9 per cent) of adults over 24 lacked a high school diploma, compared to only 14.8 per cent for the metropolitan area as a whole. One in four (25.6 per cent) 16 to 19 year-olds were high-school dropouts; almost three times the rate (8.9 per cent) for the metropolitan area. ! The unemployment rate was nearly four times higher (15.1 per cent) than in the metropolitan area (3.7 per cent), and half (49.9 per cent) of all adult men were not in the labour force, compared to only 23.8 per cent for the region as a whole. ! Single women headed most families with children (72.5 per cent compared to only 23.1 per cent of households throughout the region). ! Almost one fourth of households received public assistance, more than five times the rate for the metropolitan area. The study shows that though many problems were common throughout the distressed communities, there were important differences among these neighbourhoods and essential assets within them. For example, high-school drop-out rates varied significantly, suggesting that some schools were more successful, despite the high poverty rates of the neighbourhoods in which they were located. Unemployment rates also varied significantly, with unemployment under 10 per cent in almost one in five high-poverty tracts (ibid.). 2.2.3. New Orleans: Business Disinvestment Basolo and Strong (2002) report on a collaborative neighbourhood study conducted in the Uptown area of New Orleans. After significant growth during the first
six decades of the century, the target neighbourhood declined. The neighbourhoods once-booming commercial strip lost many businesses during 1960s and 1970s. In the 1980s the entire New Orleans area experienced a severe economic downturn due to its heavy dependence on the struggling oil and gas industries, which was followed by high abandonment and foreclosure rates. This citywide depression resulted in further decline of the Uptown area:
From 1980 to 1990, the neighbourhood population decreased by almost 25 percent In 1990, the neighbourhood had a population of 2,529, of which slightly over 90 percent were African Americans. The unemployment rate increased from 7.7 percent to 14.8 percent, and the poverty rate rose by almost 10 percentage points between 1980 and 1990; the 1989 median household income in the neighbourhood was $14,104 The New Orleans economy improved slowly during the 1990s. The depression, however, had taken a toll on local neighbourhoods (ibid. p.85-86).
2.2.4. Baltimore: Classic Case Studies in Decline The article Abandoned Housing: Exploring Lessons from Baltimore (Cohen 2001) examines three declining Baltimore neighbourhoods Sandtown-Winchester, Harlem Park, and Historic East Baltimore. Like many of the nations older industrial cities, Baltimore has been losing population: since 1950, the city has lost over 31% of its residents. The inner-city population became impoverished as a result of decline in the manufacturing base and the loss of middle-income households. Raising the homeownership rate has been slowed down by high settlement costs, property taxes and limited access to capital for construction and renovation (ibid.). The early 90s evidenced rising statistics of murders and violent crime. Residents of the inner city say that crack cocaine, crime, sanitation and lack of jobs are among the most persistent problems they face. The level of racial geographic segregation is also alarming (The Enterprise Foundation 2001). This pattern of decline left large areas of the city vacant: between 12,000 and 43,000 housing units have been abandoned. In addition to Baltimores empty derelict houses, the city has nearly 14,000 vacant lots. Much of this housing is in the form of high-density row houses, some of which are only 12 feet wide. These units require either demolition or expansion (Cohen 2001). All three neighbourhoods were constructed in the second half of the 18th century. Sandtown-Winchester and Harlem Park were built as white, middle-class suburbs; Historic East Baltimore was constructed for workers in the citys manufacturing, port, and railroad facilities. Due to a combination of factors including racial zoning in the early 1900s and restrictive covenants in other neighbourhoods until the early 1960s the three neighbourhoods became almost exclusively black by the early 1970s (ibid.).
The loss of manufacturing jobs in Baltimore, through factory closing and structural change, along with fair housing laws that facilitated the flight of middle- and upperincome blacks from inner-city neighbourhoods, contributed to the areas physical and economic decline. For example, Sandtown-Winchester, once home to over 30,000 people, saw its population decline to 10,300 by 1990 (ibid. p.424).
Three quarters of Sandtown-Winchesters housing units needed either rehabilitation or demolition, and 600 of them were boarded up. Only 20 per cent of the single-family homes were owner occupied. Nearly half of Sandtown-Winchesters residents were unemployed or underemployed half were living below the poverty line, and 45 per cent were receiving public assistance, and 40 per cent had no income at all (ibid.). As Live Baltimore Home Centre (2000) reports, by 1990, Sandtown had become a neighbourhood challenged by virtually every urban ill: poverty, unemployment, poor health, low student achievement, illiteracy, teen pregnancy, substance abuse, and almost paralysing lack of hope. Similar conditions existed in the other two study neighbourhoods. For example, 65 per cent of Harlem Parks households earn less than $20,000 a year. In East Baltimore 32 per cent of the housing units were vacant and need rehabilitation in 2000. One of every six homeowners in East Baltimore has stopped paying property taxes, one of every three households makes less than $15,000 per year, half of all adults are high school dropouts, half of all households do not own a car, and 25 per cent of residents are addicted to drugs or alcohol (Cohen 2001). Sandtown-Winchester and East Baltimore are characterized also by up to 50 per cent male unemployment and epidemic crack cocaine use. Block after block is run down, with neglected lots and overwhelming blight. Similar processes were taking place in other neighbourhoods of the city. Located southeast of downtown Baltimore, Butchers Hill inner-city neighbourhood declined as job opportunities decreased and population and economic growth occurred in the outlying suburbs (Cohen 1998). In Butchers Hill, the large homes were divided into apartments and rooming houses (such partitioning of large homes into several smaller units has occurred in all cities), and housing conditions in the community deteriorated. In the 1970s-1980s Butchers Hill became a prime site for gentrification, mainly because of its convenient downtown location. Based on 1990 census data, Cohen indicates some of the Butchers Hills challenges (ibid. pp.682-686): ! 26.7 per cent of Butchers Hills households consist of married couples, a much lower percentage than found in either the city (34.2 per cent) or the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (52.2). Only 10 per cent of the neighbourhoods households consist of married families with children (13.4 per cent for the city and 23.3 per cent for the MSA). ! 46.3 per cent of Butchers Hills households are defined as non-family, compared with 36.6 per cent for the city and 29.5 per cent for the MSA. The proportion of single-parent families is similar to that of the city. ! The neighbourhood has a relatively large (35 per cent) proportion of adults who have not completed high school. ! The neighbourhoods median household income of $17,341 is only 72.1 per cent of the citys median household income and only 47.4 per cent of the median income of the Baltimore MSA. ! A higher proportion of Butchers Hills children under 17 are living in poverty (36.3 per cent) than in the city (32.5 per cent) and in the MSA (14.0 per cent).

! !
Nearly 25 per cent of Butchers Hills households are on public assistance, compared with 16.4 per cent for the city. 59 per cent of Butchers Hills residents over 65 years old are living in poverty compared with 19.3 per cent of the citys elderly and 11.6 per cent of the MSAs as a whole. At the time of the 1990 census 15.2 per cent of housing units were vacant, compared with 9.0 per cent in the city and 6.3 per cent in the MSA. Only 36 per cent of occupied units are owner-occupied, compared with 48.6 per cent for the city and 63.7 per cent for the MSA. Median rent as a percentage of household income is 25 per cent in Butchers Hill, lower than the city rate of 27.3 per cent.
2.2.5. Milwaukee: The Geographic Spread of Decline Jargowsky (1997), in his study of neighbourhood poverty in U.S. metropolitan areas, also contends that American inner cites have decayed rapidly between 1970 and 1990. He refers to the city of Milwaukee that experienced one of the greatest increases in neighbourhood poverty rates in this period: ! In the 1970s Milwaukee had less than 12 high-poverty census tracts in the central city with poverty rates of at least 40%. During the 1980s the number of high poverty census tracts grew to 19 then to 59 in the 1990s. ! As the number of high poverty census tracts grew the new areas encircled or were adjacent to older high-poverty neighbourhoods. ! In the 1970s residents of high-poverty census tracts comprised 1.2% of the total metropolitan population; 8.4% of the total black population; and 16% of the black poor population. By the 1990s these figures had increased to 10%, 50%, and 66% respectively. According to Jargowsky, in the 1970-1980 decade, people who were not poor, especially non-Hispanic whites, moved out of these neighbourhoods, causing poverty rates to increase. During the 1980s, neighbourhoods turned into high-poverty areas as people with incomes above the poverty line continued to leave borderline neighbourhoods. Residents of these communities also became poorer as a result of a general downturn in the metropolitan economy that affected the region's labour market. The number of blacks and Hispanics living in these neighbourhoods increased over the 20 years. The number of white residents living in high-poverty areas dropped from 1,767 per neighbourhood in 1970 to 613 in 1990. This selective outmigration combined with regional economic downturns had a devastating effect on distressed areas (ibid.). 2.2.6. Houston and Seattle: The Effects of Highway Improvements Lindley Higgins (2001) examines the effects of community development efforts on revitalisation of distressed neighbourhoods in Houston, Kalamazoo, Seattle, and Washington DC. The nature of the inner-city decline documented in some of these case studies is of interest to our research. Judkins Park is a neighbourhood located near Seattles central business district. Interstate 90, built through the Central Area of Seattle had a devastating effect on the
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neighbourhood as it was cut in half by the highway. The sections of Judkins Park near the construction had experienced a significant decline in the quality of the housing stock and escalation of the vacant land and abandoned housing rates by the time the tunnel was completed in 1991. While Judkins Park was known for drive-by shootings, open-air drug markets and prostitution, the neighbourhood became even more unattractive by the effects of the I-90 construction work (ibid.). Highway improvements also played a substantial role in the decline of Houstons Fifth Ward, once a thriving neighbourhood and the birthplace of many of Houstons most prominent citizens. The neighbourhood is a few miles from Houstons downtown. The development of Route 59 separated the centre of Fifth Wards commercial district from the rest of the community. Both parts of the neighbourhood subsequently declined, and increase in crime and poverty rates followed. The neighbourhood also suffered from very low homeownership rates and housing values. Its main commercial corridor, Lyons Avenue, had only a few healthy businesses. Higgins reports:
In 1979, Texas Monthly described the Fifth Ward as Texas baddest ghetto, and it has long been known as the Bloody Fifth because of its high rates of violent crime. By 1990, the nine census tracts that make up the heart of the Fifth Ward had a poverty rate of over 60 percent (ibid.).
2.2.7. Kalamazoo: Public Image Problems Higgins examined two neighbourhoods in the southwest Michigan City of Kalamazoo: Northside and Edison (ibid.). In Northside 85 per cent of the population was African-American compared to 18.8 per cent citywide. Edison was more diverse than the rest of the city in its racial distribution but had a large portion of the citys Hispanic population. In 1990, the two neighbourhoods had lower income levels than the city overall. Northside also had a much higher poverty rate than the city as a whole, and its median housing value was less than half that of the overall city. As Higgins documents, Edison was seen as a neighbourhood hampered by public image problems. The presence of adult businesses along Portage Road, Edisons main commercial corridor, as well as the neighbourhoods relatively high crime rate, have had a negative effect on further commercial development there. 2.2.8. Atlanta: Regional as Oppose to an Inner-City Focus While the common pattern of urban development for the majority of cities in the second half of the 20th century has resulted in disparities between inner cities and suburbs, it has not always been the case. The Centre on Urban and Metropolitan Policy (2000) documents that Atlantas urban decline cant be seen as a division between inner city and suburbs. Here there is a divide between northern, affluent parts of the region and poorer, slow-growing southern areas. The study categorises the county and sub-county areas by their dominant socio-economic characteristics: ! Job-Residential Hubs have rapid job and population growth, high average household incomes, and are majority white.

!
! ! !
Bedroom Suburbs have rapid rates of population growth but less whitecollar job growth. Bedroom suburbs have moderate to high household incomes and are majority white. Urbanised Affluent areas have rapid white-collar job growth, moderate population growth, high household incomes, and are majority white. Static areas have little job or population growth, moderate to high household incomes, and may have large minority populations. Declining areas are experiencing job decline, static population growth, and low to moderate household incomes. They are majority non-white.
The majority of new residents, new jobs, and new wealth can be found on the north side of the Atlanta region - both within the City of Atlanta and its suburbs. The most rapidly growing population centres are outer suburban areas up to thirty miles from Atlantas central business district. At the same time, a large area of little or no population growth, economic decline, and high poverty is on the south side of the city and its suburbs. This north-south divide is apparent also in the kind of jobs. In the Atlanta region, the northside is the home of flourishing industries like high technology, while most of the job increases in the southside are in the service sector (ibid.). Despite the presence of a large middle-class black population in the region, the north-south divide between prosperity and poverty strongly corresponds with established residential racial segregation patterns. The booming neighbourhoods in the northern sectors of the city are predominantly white (up to 90 per cent), very affluent, and less dependent on city services. Southern suburban areas are struggling with intense social needs and insufficient resources. The regions low-income and minority workers become more and more spatially isolated from economic opportunities due to the direction of job growth that move them farther away from the inner neighbourhoods of south Atlanta (ibid.). 2.2.9. Inner City Focus on Decline is Too Geographically Confined Lucy and Phillips (2000, 2001) argue that the typical image of metropolitan growth and decline where central cities lose population and suburbs continually gain is too basic. Contemporary suburbs are highly diverse: many newly developing suburbs experience rapid growth in people and jobs, while many older, frequently inner-ring suburbs face challenges similar to those of inner cities: population decline, an ageing infrastructure, deteriorating schools and commercial corridors, and inadequate housing (Lucy and Phillips 2001). The study of population growth in nearly 2,600 suburbs in the 35 largest metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2000 reveals (Lucy and Phillips 2000, 2001):
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More than one-third of the suburbs are either stagnant in terms of population growth or are losing residents. Population growth between 1990 and 2000 across individual suburbs was highly uneven: 63 per cent of all the suburbs grew, while 37 per cent lost population or stayed the same. Population growth was faster in unincorporated areas and in new suburbs than in existing suburbs.

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Suburbs sometimes decline faster than central cities. Declining suburbs were mainly located in slow growing metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest. Declining suburbs are not necessarily those immediately adjacent to, or near central cities, they are found throughout the metropolitan area. Small suburbs are not buffered against the forces of decline. Nearly onethird of suburbs with populations less than 10,000 lost population during the 1990s. By contrast, only 18.4 per cent of large suburbs declined. Residents income declined in one-third of suburbs relative to their central cities between 1980 and 1990, and income decline was concentrated in middle-aged suburbs developed between 1945 and 1970. Median size of new housing increased from 1100 square feet in 1950 to 1920 square feet in 1995.
2.2.10. Suburban Decline In Confronting Suburban Decline: Strategic Planning for Metropolitan Renewal Lucy and Phillips (2000) contend that due to the "tyranny of easy development decisions," developers build new housing where government regulations permit. They avoid in-fill projects because of protests from neighbours and insufficient support for compact development from public officials. Orfield (1998) distinguishes three types of suburban communities in the largest metropolitan areas in the country: (1) socio-economically declining inner suburbs; (2) outer-region satellite cities and low tax-capacity developing suburbs (places without a strong base from which to raise local revenue); and (3) commercial, high tax-capacity, developing suburbs. Socio-economically declining inner suburbs are often distressed communities that are fully developed and beginning to experience socio-economic decline moving spectrally out of the central city. These areas are defined by a combination of increasing social needs and low tax base; they often do not have sufficient social or economic resources to respond to growing social challenges. Orfield notes that many older transitioning suburbs on the south and west sides of Chicago and communities such as Camden, New Jersey, Compton, California, and East St. Louis, Missouri suffer much more severe segregation, deprivation, and intense levels of crime than the cities they adjoin (ibid.) The scholar identifies several reasons why inner-ring suburbs are less stable than central cities (ibid.): ! Central cities have a comparatively stable resource base. Inner-ring suburbs are often bedroom communities without commercial-industrial base or stable housing values. ! Cities have social-governmental systems in place to cope with poverty and social change. Inner-ring suburbs without tax base or ability to provide such services are often stricken by social problems as they cross city/suburban borders.
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!
Central cities have a wide range of institutions and social amenities that foster more economically diverse, and therefore more stable communities. The inner-rings inexpensive housing is rarely unique, nor is it often accompanied by entertainment, amenities, or parks. Cities tend to have a more participatory public culture. Suburbanites are more likely to be individualists, less interested in the neighbourhood social and political issues and are less involved in public concerns. Central cities are heterogeneous and retain pockets of both stability and gentrification. Middle- and working-class suburbs are homogenous and do not have elite or gentrifying neighbourhoods. Much of the housing stock in central cities is durable and offers amenities such as stone or brick exteriors, hardwood floors, and built-in cabinetry that remain fashionable. Most post-World War II rapidly assembled and inexpensively constructed homes are not unique, and are in direct competition with more modern housing in outer-edge cities with less social stress.
A review of the American literature clearly indicates that neighbourhood decline has been a prominent part of the process of urban development and evolution over the past three to four decades. Decline has a decidedly inner city focus, but several studies suggest that the process of decline can occur on a much broader geographical basis. There is growing evidence to suggest the older suburban neighbourhoods (developed before or immediately after World War II) are beginning to show characteristics typical of decline. Core studies from the literature also illustrate that although the characteristics, nature, and extent of decline vary from one city to the next, there are many commonalties. These commonalties manifest themselves in the nature of housing and commercial infrastructure, the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population, the lack of investment in core areas, the presence of various social pathologies and the attitudes and opinions of residents within these areas and people fleeing these neighbourhoods or living in other parts of the city. Neighbourhood decline in American cities is also highly correlated with certain ethnic and racial groups. At times the depth of decline and level of despair in these neighbourhoods is overwhelming.
2.3. The European Experience

A pattern of decentralisation can be seen in all Western European cities after World War II. According to a recent survey of European city officials, settlement patterns are becoming more complex and the continuing suburbanisation of population and jobs is one of the major features (OECD 1995, p. 15). Richardson and Gordon state (1999) that in many European cities (for instance, Antwerp, Copenhagen, Hamburg, Milan, Paris and Rotterdam) both population and employment grew faster in the suburbs than in the core city, even in the 1970s. More recent data show declines in central city population shares: Paris, 32-23 per cent, 1968-90; Zurich, 38-29 per cent, 1970-95; Amsterdam, 80-66 per cent, 1970-94; less so in London, 41-38 per cent, 1971-94 (ibid.).
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Even Eastern Europe is not exempt from these trends. For example, in spite of distinct differences in urban densities, the availability of automobiles, and historical planned vs. market conditions, the location behaviour of Dresden households is very similar to that observed in U.S. data (ibid.). In the United States, in the 1980s, the concept of an urban ghetto underclass was developed to describe the residents of urban inner-city areas with high concentrations of poverty, unemployment, crime, teen-age pregnancy and lone motherhood. Researchers dismiss the idea that there are ghettos in the large European cities on the same scale and segregated manner that they exist in larger American cities. In Europe, instead, during the latter part of the 1990s the concept of social exclusion was at the centre in discussions of issues like poverty, unemployment, and ethnic minorities (Glennerster et al. 1999, Larsen 2001). Concentration of socially excluded people in certain districts has occurred in almost every major European city (Robson 1988; Larsen 2001; Richardson and Gordon 1999; Glennerster et al. 1999; Carley 1990; Priemus 1998; Randolph and Judd 1999; Townsend 1987). Globalisation, migration and social exclusion are often the keywords employed to explain this process of spatial concentration of especially long-term unemployed, immigrant and ethnic minority communities (Larsen 2001). 2.3.1. The British Experience Extensive evidence of decline is reported in British cities with inner-city disinvestment and abandonment of physical urban fabrics particularly in northern cities such as Newcastle, Glasgow, Leeds, Liverpool, and Manchester (Keenan, Lowe & Spencer 1999). On the other hand demand for inner city housing remains strong in cities such as London and Dublin. According to Keenan et al. the decline in inner city housing is closely related to economic restructuring, which has resulted in the emergence of housing abandonment particularly in areas of public housing stock. According to Carley (1999), more than three million British homes (about one in seven) are in poor condition, lacking in basic amenities or in need of major repairs. Many of these homes are in run-down neighbourhoods of degraded environmental quality, whose residents suffer from poverty and social and economic alienation. The loss of around one million industrial jobs in British urban areas, most in the past twenty years, made conditions worse in these neighbourhoods. British run-down neighbourhoods house about five million people, many of whom are unemployed, single parents, elderly or suffering some form of social deprivation. In some of them, the prenatal mortality rate for children is twice the national average and the death rate 30 per cent greater (ibid.). Glasgow is an interesting example as decline has been happening there equally in inner-city and suburban areas of the city. Often the peripheral estates represented the most serious set of problems facing the city, with major concentrations of socially and economically disadvantaged groups. Half of the most deprived areas in Glasgow are now located in the peripheral estates (ibid.). The 1951 Census indicated that 51 per cent of all Glasgow families lived in 1 or 2 room flats (ibid.). The solutions pursued to tackle overcrowding included: overspill, particularly to new towns; comprehensive redevelopment of inner-city areas, replacing
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the overcrowded tenements with the high-rise blocks; and construction of large, peripheral housing estates on the edges of the city (Scottish Development Agency (SDA) 1987, p. 60). The SDA summarised the dynamics of the peripheral estate decline in Glasgow (ibid.). First, there was rapid construction of the estates in the 1950s and 1960s to house people displaced by inner city redevelopment. The provision of shopping, leisure, and education facilities was not a priority. The estates soon became unpopular, as they were often used to house problem tenants that were likely to be poor, unskilled and anti-social. This started a spiral of decline. High turnover rates, a lack of community cohesion and a very poor external image made the estates even more unpopular. Housing design problems, a mismatch between house and family size, inadequate management and maintenance, and poverty of the residents isolated these estates from the wider socioeconomic system. Problems on the estates were made worse by an overall oversupply of council housing, resulting from declining population in Glasgow. Low levels of investment in the peripheral areas during the 1970s and early 1980s that reflected the national policy agenda with an emphasis placed on the inner cities, contributed to the peripheral estate decay (ibid.). Carley (1990) reports on four peripheral housing estates that were constructed at Drumchapel, Pollok, Castlemilk and Easterhouse. These estates were built quickly to house people from the city centre, but very soon reliable tenants started transferring out again and by the late sixties the estates were difficult to let. The combination of poor design, geographical isolation and severe economic and social deprivation characterize the current condition of the estates (ibid.). By the 1970s the estates had high levels of the population who were unemployed and dependent upon state benefits; a large proportion of single parent families and young singles; an unbalanced social mix, with few people in professional and non-manual groups and high proportions of unskilled workers; poor environmental quality caused by bad housing design and estate layout; a lack of social, recreational and leisure facilities; and a poor image, both with tenants and the outside world (SDA 1987, p.1). Some common features of these areas in 1980s included: male unemployment in some neighbourhoods was as high as 40 per cent, and much higher levels of youth unemployment in some areas; high overcrowding, seven times the British national average; on some estates infant mortality was almost five times the national rate; and there was serious shortage of social and community facilities (Carley 1990). Power and Mumford (1999) examined housing demand in British inner-city areas. The main focus of the study was on Newcastle and Manchester, two cities experiencing long-run decline and concentrated multiple deprivation, which is far more severe in the inner neighbourhoods. Between 1971 and 1996, Manchester lost 22 per cent and Newcastle 16 per cent of its population. Inner-city areas lost more people and jobs than outer areas, and male jobs did much worse than female (ibid.).
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Since the mid-1980s waiting lists for council housing have fallen dramatically in both cities and continue to fall. Low housing demand has generated falling school rolls, loss of confidence in the areas, severe symptoms of physical abandonment, a vacuum in social control, anti-social behaviour and intense fear of crime. Property values were falling and intense demand problems could be seen in all property types, all tenures and all parts of the neighbourhoods. The turnover of population was extremely high in council housing. The authors indicate that if turnover moves above a certain level, it can become unmanageable. The turnover rate in council housing was between 20 and 50 per cent (ibid.). This brief review of what is mainly British literature illustrates that neighbourhood decline is as much a part of urban evolution in Britain as it is in the United States. The characteristics of neighbourhood infrastructure and resident population also illustrate considerable similarities to the American situation. There are differences in Britain. Although the inner cities of Britains urban centres are certainly not immune to decline, the inner-city focus is not as strong as it is in the United States. More often, decline is centred around large housing estates in suburban (peripheral) locations developed for a low-income, marginalized population often displaced by innercity redevelopment. The literature also seems to suggest that decline does not have the same strong social and ethnic connection it has in the United States.
2.4. The Australian Experience

Like in other countries, older Australian suburbs are diverse and experience challenges comparable to those of inner cities. The report Shifting Suburbs: Population Structure and Change in Greater Western Sydney documents the changes that have taken place in Western Sydney in the last two decades (The Urban Frontiers Program 2003). A detailed analysis of suburbs indicates that the oldest, pre-World War II, suburbs show signs of decline, which is characterized by high proportions of the most disadvantaged in the region, as measured by household income and occupational characteristics, a high proportion of flats and semi-detached housing, and a strong private rental market. Similarly to Britain, the decline of large peripheral estates represents one of the major problems for Australian cities. In New South Wales (NSW) approximately one third of the public housing stock is concentrated in large estates, which date mostly from the 1960s and 70s (Randolph and Judd 1999). Their physical form varies from innercity medium to high-rise housing to low-density outer suburban estates. While initially envisioned as planned communities, incorporating recreational, retail and school facilities, over time these areas became increasingly disadvantaged and stigmatised as areas of low amenity, deteriorating housing stock with significant social problems including high unemployment, social service dependency, and crime. By the early 1990s, the problems of the unpopular large estates had become crucial. Substantial concentrations of public housing are now associated with socially excluded populations characterized by chronic unemployment, welfare dependence, drug and alcohol abuse, crime and other forms of social dysfunction (ibid.).
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Randolph and Judds case study of the Waterloo Estate, the largest of the Sydney's inner-city public housing estates, characterize the problems. The estate comprises approximately 2,500 properties, which accounts for close to 70% of all dwellings, and 82% of the total population of the suburb of Waterloo. Compared to other housing estates, Waterloo has a high percentage (51%) of high-rise flats set in open space and is highly visible and easily distinguished from its mainly terrace house and light industrial surroundings. It is a highly disadvantaged community falling within the lowest 10 per cent of all collectors districts in NSW according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Socio-Economic Indicators for Areas. It has a well above average concentration of elderly people, single person households, single parent households, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, and particular ethnic groups such as Russian/Ukraine and Vietnamese (ibid.). The Waterloo area has suffered from high levels of unemployment (particularly amongst youth), high dependency on government assistance, a significantly higher incidence of mental illness, problems with drug and alcohol abuse, and high levels of crime and vandalism. As a result, by the mid 1990s Waterloo had become a highly stigmatised community with a high rejection rate of housing offers, high vacancy rates, high rental arrears and high levels of nuisance, annoyance and vandalism (ibid.). The pattern of population and urban growth or loss prior to 1991 in Australia can be summarized as strong population growth in areas with large greenfield sites on the urban fringe, accompanied by consistent population losses in the inner city and losses in the middle suburbs (Department of Infrastructure 1998). However the evidence presented in the Australian studies indicate that neighbourhood change patterns in Australia's largest capital cities have become more complex over the past years than the model of inner and middle city decline and growth in the outer rings of urban development (Badcock 2001, Department of Infrastructure 1998, Baker, Coffee and Hugo 2000). The urban development trends occurring over the last 10-15 years represent a substantial shift from earlier patterns. These are a revival of population growth and residential development in the inner city, and the boom in the development and demand for medium-density housing (Department of Infrastructure 1998). Inner-city revitalization has proceeded right through the 1990s in Australias all five largest cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth) (Badcock 2001). For example, inner city repopulation has occurred in Melbourne between 1991 and 1996, arresting population decline since the turn of the century. In the first half of the decade, the City of Melbourne local government area became the third fastest growing municipality in the metropolitan area, growing by approximately 15 per cent in that period. Sydney has also undergone a remarkable growth in its inner city population and level of residential development since 1991 (Department of Infrastructure 1998). The demographic profile of inner-city residents of Melbourne showed that the people repopulating the inner city tend to be young, predominantly 20 to 29 year olds. They are likely to have fewer children and to be highly educated. Inner city residents tend to work in managerial or professional occupations in the service sector, particularly
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finance, insurance, property or business services and have higher-than-average incomes. These demographic characteristics of the residents repopulating inner cities are common for other large Australian cities (ibid.).
2.5. Are Canadian Cities Different?

There is a continuing debate about whether urban growth patterns in Canada are similar to those of the U.S. (Bourne 1982, 1997; Rothblatt 1994, Richardson and Gordon 1999). Goldberg and Mercer (1986) in The Myth of the North American City have examined contrasts between Canadian and U.S. settlement patterns and the differences they found were not very significant. Similarly to the U.S., the urban geography of city decline in Canadas largest urban regions is far more complex than a simple innercity/suburban divide. Bourne (2000) contends that the areas of population decline have moved further out from the city centre. Broadway and Jesty (1998) suggested that the absence of an extensive literature documenting inner-city deprivation indicates that Canadian inner cities might possibly be resistant to the structural economic and demographic changes that have affected inner cities in Britain and the US. But results of their research Are Canadian Inner Cities Becoming More Dissimilar? An Analysis of Urban Deprivation Indicators fail to support this argument (ibid.). Bourne describes Canada's suburban development as typically North American (1997). Between 1951 and 1996, due to middle-class flight, the central city population share in Vancouver fell from 64 per cent to 29 per cent, in Montreal from 74 per cent to 32 per cent, in Ottawa from 74 per cent to 31 per cent, and in Toronto from 58 per cent to 15 per cent, which is comparable to the U.S. decentralisation patterns (ibid.). During the 1980s and 1990s, the distribution of income within Canadian society became more polarised (Gertler 2001, Hatfield 1997, Lee 2000, Bradford 2002). These negative trends reflected a deep restructuring of the Canadian economy including recessionary conditions, continental and global production rationalisation (globalization), and technological change. As Kevin Lee (2000) has documented, the total population in metropolitan areas grew by 6.9 per cent between 1990 and 1995, while the poor population in the same areas grew by 33.8 per cent (as defined by Statistics Canada Low Income Cut-Offs). Examining the decade between 1980 and 1990, Hatfield (1997) also found convincing evidence of increasing spatial polarisation and concentration of poor households. Although the national family poverty rate did not change significantly over this decade, the proportion of poor urban families living in very poor neighbourhoods increased from 12 per cent to more than 17 per cent. Hatfield provided evidence of a growing tendency for the urban poor to become spatially concentrated within the poorest neighbourhoods of Canadas cities. Montreal was identified as the city with the highest rate of spatial concentration of poor families, 40 per cent of which were living in very poor neighbourhoods by 1990. Very poor neighbourhoods in Winnipeg were home to 23.5 per cent of the citys poor families in 1980 and 39 per cent by 1990. Hatfield also documents that significant numbers of high poverty census tracts in Canada were
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afflicted by disproportionately high incidences of a number of behaviours associated with social distress and marginalisation (ibid.). Poorest neighbourhoods tend to be clustered in the innermost parts of Canadian metropolitan areas. Poverty rates in these neighbourhoods, both in the central city and in older inner suburban rings, are growing much faster than are those in proximate outer suburbs. For example, in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area, the poverty rate in the central city of Toronto was 27.6 per cent, compared to Oakvilles rate of 9.9 per cent (Lee 2000). The distribution of poverty is very uneven across social groups, with urban Aboriginal people, recent immigrants, visible minorities and people with disabilities, lone-parent families, unattached individuals, children and elderly women exhibiting rates of poverty well above the national average for urban dwellers (Lee 2000). Hatfield (1997) finds that distressed neighbourhoods are characterized by concentrations of Aboriginal peoples (particularly in Winnipeg) and recent immigrants. At the same time, the experience of each city is unique. As Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (2001) reports, the influx of a marginalised population, a large proportion of which are Aboriginal people, into Winnipegs core is a critical part of the explanation for decline in this city, whereas in Kitchener, a weak economy and the proximity of attractive alternative communities are the main factors in decline. More focussed discussion of decline in Canadian cities and detailed analysis of specific cities will be provided is subsequent publications.
3. Common Features of Decline

Traditionally urban decline has been explained on the notion of the slum, areas of overcrowded, low-quality housing with poor hygiene and sanitation, located close to the city centre. Today, urban decline is more the result of an interconnected mix of environmental, social and economic circumstances, sometimes exacerbated by public policies. This mix of circumstances discourages investment and job creation and encourages alienation and exclusion (Kamal-Chaoui 2001). Urban decline is characterized by the geographical concentration of social, economic and spatial problems. According to Kamal-Chaoui, the presence of urban decline areas, whether in the centre or on the periphery of a city, alters the pattern of metropolitan employment and investment, therefore reducing the citys capacity to pursue area-wide goals (ibid.). Declining areas share certain similar features: changes in the class, racial and demographic composition, the steady outmigration of more advantaged families and overall depopulation, young populations and high rates of single parenthood in a context of broken families, low income levels and high dependency on income transfers, high levels of informal economic activity, low levels of socio-occupational mix, high crime rates and rates of drug and alcohol abuse, few local commercial enterprises and poor access to shopping centres, and high mortality and disease rates. These different characteristics interact to produce areas of decline.
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Neighbourhoods in decline often suffer from significant levels of population loss, resulting in a lower population density. The people most likely to leave such neighbourhoods are higher-income residents with families who can afford to relocate to the suburbs (CMHC 2001). Numbers of immigrants and refugees, who are among new arrivals, are typically insufficient to reverse the downward trend, particularly in slow growth cities. However, low population density is not a necessary feature of declining neighbourhoods. They can sometimes be densely populated and overcrowding can be a problem (ibid.).
3.1. Poverty and Segregation

Concentration of poverty, and economic and ethnic inequality has become an important indicator of declining inner-city neighbourhoods (Gertler 2001; Cutler and Glaeser 1995; Hatfield 1997; Lee 2000; Bradford 2002; Broadway and Jesty 1998; Lynn and McGeary 1990; Massey and Denton 1993; Wilson 1987, 1999; Jargowsky 1997; Iceland et al. 2003; Glennerster et al., 1999). Since the early 1970s income inequality among neighbourhoods has been growing in most OECD countries. It has arisen from two sources: higher levels of unemployment, especially in Europe, and widening wage dispersions, particularly in the United States. Australian cities have also been subject to a substantial increase in neighbourhood inequality. However, the evidence seems to suggest that this change in inequality in Australia is less than in the US and the United Kingdom (Randolph and Judd 1999, Gregory and Hunter 2003). According to Kamal-Chaoui (2001) the situation has worsened in the 1980s and 1990s, both in countries with strong employment growth and in those where unemployment remains high. Even Nordic countries, which generally have comprehensive benefit systems, were not able to prevent the emergence of inequalities in some urban areas (ibid.). Wilson (1999) argues that the consequences of high neighbourhood joblessness are even more devastating than those of high neighbourhood poverty. In his work When Work Disappears (1996) Wilson shows that many of today's problems in America's disadvantaged inner-city neighbourhoods - crime, family dissolution, welfare, low levels of social organisation and so on - are related to the disappearance of work. Wilson contends that it is employment changes that have triggered these polarisation effects but once set in motion they become self-reinforcing (ibid.). The causes of differences in residential patterns are often discussed in the context of racial and ethnic segregation. The factors that contribute to differing racial and ethnic residential patterns include preferences for living in neighbourhoods with those of similar race and ethnicity, socio-economic differences, and housing discrimination (Iceland et al. 2003). Massey and Denton (1993) show that the concentration of poverty among minority groups is primarily due to rising poverty rates for those groups coupled with persistent differences in residential patterns by race.
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As Wilson points out, in Chicagos Black Belt the incidence of poverty rose from less than a third of the population to just over a half between 1970 and 1990 while the overall rate for Chicago as a whole rose only seven per cent (1996). Jargowsky (1996) found that nearly half of all blacks and two thirds of poor blacks in 1990 lived in high poverty neighbourhoods. Similar high concentrations exist for both blacks (ghettos) and for Hispanics (barrios) in some of the large urban areas. The concentration is not true of white families in the States. In the UK, in contrast, the worst concentrations of poverty and joblessness are not race related. The greatest concentrations of poverty occur in white areas in the north (Glennerster et al. 1999). Canadian research on neighbourhood inequality is less extensive than American one. Nevertheless, it draws the same conclusions: inequality between neighbourhoods has risen in most Canadian cities since 1970. Hatfield (1997) shows that the percentage of low-income families living in neighbourhoods with high poverty rates rose between 1980 and 1990. A recent study of low-income in Canadian cities by the Canadian Council on Social Development (Lee 2000) confirmed rising low-income rates in Canadian municipalities. Gertler (2001) points out that consistently similar set of social attributes can be found in poor urban neighbourhoods simultaneously: low levels of educational attainment, high rates of unemployment, high levels of housing need, a preponderance of elderly residents (particularly elderly women), lone-parent families, recent immigrants, non-permanent residents, and (in some cities) people of Aboriginal origin. Moreover, this set of indicators of social deprivation is becoming more spatially concentrated which means that existing social problems are becoming more intractable, while new forms of social dysfunction are emerging in the same neighbourhoods (ibid.). Changes in the neighbourhood distribution of earnings signal significant change in the social and economic character of neighbourhoods. Myles, Picot and Pyper (2000) analyse changes in neighbourhood income inequality and residential economic segregation in the eight largest Canadian cities during the 1980-95 period. Employment was increasingly concentrated in higher income communities and unemployment in lower income neighbourhoods. The important indication of decline is the loss of human capital among residents of distressed areas. The most essential, in terms of its impact on other aspects of local life, is the decline in civic participation and in the sense of community identity and solidarity (Kamal-Chaoui 2001, Temkin and Rohe 1998). Vandalism and lack of proper maintenance result in damage to public and private infrastructure, representing a considerable capital loss to local assets. The rise in vacancy rates, and difficulties in letting apartments in particular neighbourhoods, represent a significant waste of public resources. Finally, increases in crime add to the climate of insecurity among the whole urban population. All these factors combine to weaken both a citizens feeling of belonging to a neighbourhood and the areas social cohesion (Kamal-Chaoui 2001).
3.2. Vacant and Abandoned Property

Vacant and abandoned property is one of the most visible indicators of inner-city decline. A study by Accordino and Johnson Addressing the Vacant and Abandoned
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Property Problem (2000) identifies factors that contribute to the problem of vacant and abandoned property in central cities of the US (ibid. pp. 301-302):
!
! !
Federal policies subsidised outmigration of the middle-class, favoured new construction over existing developments, and sanctioned the redlining of vast areas of the inner cities. The new interstate highway programs opened up inexpensive and minimally taxed land on the urban fringe for industrial and residential developments. With falling revenues in the worst inner-city neighbourhoods, nonessential repairs were delayed or stopped; mortgage obligations went into default; and property tax payments were stopped, starting the timetable for loss of ownership and abandonment. Functioning of housing markets resulted in the process of filtering. State and local policies such as laws regarding wills, probate, titles, property descriptions and surveys, the way that localities assess real estate and foreclose on tax delinquent properties, have also played a role.
The research findings shown in the Table 1 reveal the types of vacant and abandoned property that are perceived as most problematic. Single- and multi-family housing, followed by retail properties and vacant land, were reported as the most problematic types. Industrial and office properties were an issue for fewer cities. This pattern persists in all regions of the country regardless city size or its growth rate (ibid.).
Table 1. Most Problematic Types of Vacant and Abandoned Properties by Region2. Source: adapted from Accordino and Johnson 2000. Type of Abandoned Property Single-Family Homes [**] Multi-Family Complexes [*] Retail Buildings [*] Land [**] Industrial Buildings [**] Office Buildings [o] Total 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.7
The problem of housing abandonment is viewed usually as an indicator of urban decline rather than a cause. However, as stated by Cohen (2001), although it is true that abandoned homes are symptomatic of other problems, they also contribute to neighbourhood decline and frustrate revitalization efforts by becoming eyesores, fire hazards, and sites for drug-related activity, vagrancy, and rodent infestation (ibid. p. 416). Burchell and Listokin (1981) also indicate that abandonment is both a symptom and a disease. It is a sign of poverty, selected migration, unemployment, and the tax
2
The table depicts averages of rank orderings given to types of properties by respondents from 1 (least problematic) to 6 (most problematic). * Statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. ** Statistically significant at the 90% confidence level. o Not significant. N = 148.
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base loss. Abandonment is also a causal mechanism that accelerates and perpetuates urban decline (ibid. p. 15). In many countries, the ownership structure means that empty units increase the rents that must be paid by remaining tenants, forcing some to leave (particularly those in low-paid employment who are not entitled to housing allowances), (Kamal-Chaoui 2001). As a result the number of vacant units further increase. Accordino and Johnson (2000) note that in the 95 U.S. central cities where the problem of vacant and abandoned property is confined to specific neighbourhoods, half reported that 20% or less of the community is affected, and almost one-third of the cities reported that 21% to 40% of the total community is affected by the problem. Table 2 demonstrates that housing and neighbourhood vitality was reported as the most influenced factor, followed by crime prevention efforts, commercial district vitality, and overall quality of life. Vacant and abandoned property have moderate impacts on assessed property values and fire prevention, and less significant impact on the vitality of industrial district (ibid.).
Table 2. Community Quality Factors Most Affected by Vacant and Abandoned Property3. Source: adapted from Accordino and Johnson 2000. Factor Housing/Neighbourhood Vitality Crime Prevention Efforts Commercial District Vitality Overall Quality of Life Assessed Property Values Fire Prevention Efforts Industrial District Vitality Score 108.5 108 108 107.5 84.5 76.5 4.5
Deteriorating houses, apartments, commercial and industrial buildings, and lots undermine the vitality of city neighbourhoods. Glennerster and co-authors (1999) emphasise that the more unattractive the housing and the areas facilities, the more segregated the population, the lower the social and human capital of the area, the less capable are the individuals and the area of attracting jobs. The research Housing and Neighbourhood Renewal: Britain's New Urban Challenge (Carley 1990) confirms a serious national housing problem in Britain. Nearly half a million council dwellings in Britain are in poor condition4. The EHCS estimates that in England 4.8 per cent of the total dwelling stock is unfit, 2.5 per cent lacks one or more of the basic amenities, and 12.9 per cent is in poor repair. In total, nearly 15 per cent of the stock is in poor condition (ibid.).
3
Scores were determined as follows: Respondents were asked to state whether the effects of vacant and abandoned properties are (i) Highly Negative; (ii) Somewhat Negative; or (iii) Have No Effect. Responses were weighted: Highly Negative 1; Somewhat Negative .5; No Effect -1 and summed. N = 149. Poor condition is defined as being unfit, lacking in basic amenities or in disrepair, that is a need for urgent repairs to the external fabric of the property estimated to cost in excess of 1,000 (Carley 1990).
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For all tenures a strong relationship between dwelling age and poor condition is reported, but regardless of age, dwellings in the private rented sector are in poorest condition. Similarly 90 per cent of vacant dwellings in poor condition are also in private ownership. Poor condition dwellings were more likely to be in association with other dwellings in poor condition in areas of older property, in areas of flats rather than houses and in areas where the majority of the property was owned by the local authority (ibid.). The study also contends that 10.6 per cent of the total English dwellings were considered to be located in poor environments. As well as conventional measures of physical decline, the incidence of vandalism, graffiti and the dumping of rubbish in the common areas of blocks of flats were recorded (ibid.). Declining neighbourhoods often have very little landscaping, an absence of leisure and recreational facilities, poor educational facilities, and few shopping opportunities except for marginal retail activities that reflect their low socio-economic status, such as pawn shops, cheque cashing centres, and small convenience stores (Driedger 1991).
3.3. Disinvestment and Economic Decline

Disinvestment is one of the major characteristics of declining neighbourhoods. The disinvestment process is triggered when a community offers lower returns to the investor. As incomes fall and families leave a community, prices and rents in that community decline in comparison to other areas and owners become less interested in maintenance. Thus disinvestment is initially manifested in delayed home improvements and discretionary repairs (CMHC 2001). At the core of the disinvestment process in many urban areas is the market gap problem, which arises when the cost of renovation and property acquisition exceeds the market value of the renovated home. When circumstances in a neighbourhood begin to generate declines in property values and these values drop below the cost of new construction and/or renovation, conventional financing by private capital becomes impossible. In these circumstances, work that would prevent further deterioration and eventual abandonment of residential units and business premises is not done. This has often been a signal to lenders and insurance companies, particularly in the US to either redline the area and cease operations completely, or at least to raise interest rates, premiums, and equity requirements to cover the increased risks (ibid.). Figures form Winnipeg's inner city clearly highlight the problem of the market gap. Information drawn from the North End Housing Project in Winnipeg is illustrated in Table 3. The figures show the purchase price and renovation costs necessary to rehabilitate housing in an inner-city neighbourhood.
Table 3. The Purchase Price and Renovation Costs Necessary for Housing Rehabilitation Acquisition Costs Renovation Costs Overhead $14,000 $51,000 $10,300
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Contingency Reserve Total Cost Market Value Market Gap
$ 1,900 $ 1,700 $79,040 $41,800 $37,240
These figures, based on the average costs to purchase and renovate 22 older twoand three-bedroom units in Winnipeg's inner city, clearly demonstrate that the cost of purchasing and renovating units to an acceptable standard far exceeds the price one could expect to get on the market. In fact, the total costs of purchase and renovation exceeds the market value by approximately 90%. When such a significant gap exists between costs and market it discourages private investment as investors appreciate they cannot expect to re-capture their costs or make a profit should they have to sell. It also illustrates that significant public subsidies are required to stimulate any activity in such neighbourhoods. The market gap problem reveals the self-reinforcing nature of the decline and disinvestment process: the development of one symptom often leads to the emergence or aggravation of other symptoms, thus exacerbating neighbourhood distress. The market gap problem also shows why the private sector cannot, on its own, reverse disinvestment once it reaches an advanced stage (ibid.). Neighbourhood decline is marked by the undermined confidence of business entrepreneurs and investors. The sense of insecurity inherent in these areas constitutes a major disincentive to all economic actors. Kamal-Chaoui (2001) refers to recent economic theory, which emphasises the influence of confidence (of enterprises, households etc.) on growth. The concept of a feel-good factor that describes this individual and collective confidence has become centrally important in economic development initiatives. For example, the sense of general economic insecurity in areas of urban decline is thought to encourage precautionary saving and depress consumption in neighbouring areas (ibid.). The problem of lack of innovation and entrepreneurial ability should also be mentioned. In declining urban areas business creation is not seen as the way to succeed, largely because it seems such a distant and unattainable goal. In some areas, entrepreneurial residents are likely to be more attracted by illegal activities. Regardless the soundness of their project or business, discrimination and redlining on credit markets by banks often means that projects never get any further than the planning stage (ibid.).
3.4. Changing Land Uses

The inner-city areas are often the sites of under-utilised commercial space, which are inexpensive to lease and therefore become a magnet for businesses serving the underprivileged. Among these are pay-day loan and cheque-cashing outlets, pawnshops, temporary labour centres, low-priced saloons, sex shops, massage parlours and others.
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Virtually any low-income inner-city community has billboards and other large signs advertising "check-cashing" services. According to Miller (2001), in the USA, there are more than 5,000 check cashers and the number is growing at a 10 per cent annual rate. The number of various pawn shops, offering Quick Loans or Instant Cash is also growing: since 1986 their yellow page listings across the country more than doubled to roughly 9,500 in 1995. Fringe financial service firms are also a growing phenomenon to varying degrees throughout Canada and the UK (Buckland et al. 2003). In the United States Miller found the explanation for this rapid change in the structure of inner-city financial markets in unintended consequences of regulation aimed at rehabilitating the inner cities. In an effort to stimulate inner-city loans by banks, American Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. Under the terms of this act, banks were required to solicit loans in older and lower income neighbourhoods, so that residents of these areas would be able to participate in the economic redevelopment of these inner-city areas. However, the result of these changes has been to actually discourage banks from doing any business in the nation's inner cities (Miller 2001). With traditional bank branches moving out of low-income neighbourhoods, fringe banking services are becoming the banking service of choice for inner-city residents. With easy terms, extended hours of operation, and locations throughout the poorest neighbourhoods, fringe-banking services are flourishing, despite very high interest rates (Buckland et al. 2003). These high fees and service charges lead to further impoverishment of disadvantaged inner-city neighbourhoods. But many inner-city dwellers prefer to use the nearby fringe-banking services because going to a traditional bank might mean transportation costs, time lost from work to make inconvenient banking hours, or bank service charges (ibid.). Decaying inner-city neighbourhoods are also characterized by high concentration of adult land uses. It has been documented in many North American cities that the location of adult entertainment uses degrades the quality of life in the areas of a community where they are located. Studies have shown secondary impacts such as increased levels of crime, decreased tax base, and blight resulting from the clustering and concentration of adult entertainment uses. Late night noise and traffic also increase due to the late hours of operation of many of these establishments. The National Law Centre for Children and Families presents summaries of the land use studies of the secondary impacts of adult land uses on communities in the United States. The study of the secondary effects of adult entertainment uses in New York City reports that recent trends in sexually oriented businesses (SOBs) show a 35% increase over the last decade (National Law Centre for Children and Families 1994). SOBs have continued to concentrate in specific areas, in particular in three communities within Manhattan. Concentration of SOBs had resulted in significant economic decline, decreased property values, and deterrence of customers, and significantly increased crime incidence. The study specifically examined the negative secondary impacts documented in Islip, NY, Indianapolis, IN, Whittier, CA, Austin, TX, Phoenix, AZ, Los Angeles, CA, New Hanover Co., NC, Manatee Co., FL, and MN, which evidenced problems with
24
dead zones, declining property values, high turnover rates in adjacent businesses, and higher sex crime rates. The research found that the destructive secondary effects are similar in every jurisdiction, despite size of city, variations in land use patterns, and other local conditions (ibid.).
3.5. Decline of Public Education

Low educational attainment is considered to be an important indicator of areas of decline. Failure at school is often attributed to neighbourhood effects. These negative collective processes, including the abandonment of parental responsibilities on the part of modern parents and the high rates of juvenile delinquency, criminality and street violence, explain why so many of the young people in these areas lose interest in education (ibid.). The school performance problem in declining neighbourhoods is also an essential factor. Schools with high numbers of poor students are more likely to rate lower in achievement tests. Economic research linking education performance and later earnings indicates that even when poverty, family background and initial abilities are taken into account, being in a class with many other poor children has an additional effect. Such childrens school performance is worse and their later earnings are lower (Glennerster et al. 1999). Families with resources move away in search of more solidly middle-class public schools or private schools; therefore the rising percentage of areas white children enrolled in private schools is another indicator of the trend towards neighbourhood decline. Low-quality public school education characterises neighbourhood decline as well. Inadequate public education makes the children and young adults of the distressed neighbourhoods unprepared to compete for skilled jobs, as fastest-growing, best-paying job sectors require a trained, highly educated workforce. Jonathan Kozol (1991) reports on the state of public education in poorer neighbourhoods in the United States. Shocked by the persistent segregation and bias, Kozol describes the garrison-like campuses located in high-crime areas, which often lack the most basic needs. Rooms with no heat, few supplies or texts, labs with no equipment or running water, sewer backups, fumes, and overwhelming fiscal shortages combine to create an appalling scene. Education scholar Jean Anyon (1997) argues that in the 20th century the decline of inner-city education and the decline of the inner city went hand in hand. Anyon studies the changes that occurred in the education system in Newark, New Jersey and links them to larger social processes in the life of the city (Table 4). The Centre on Urban and Metropolitan Policy (2000) indicates that a high percentage of students eligible for free and reduced-cost school lunches is a strong sign of neighbourhood distress and identifies three reasons for this: ! A Federal lunch subsidy is a more reliable measure of distress than the poverty level, because the poverty level is very low. A focus on only those families officially below the poverty level ignores the other families earning slightly more who are subject to many of the same difficulties as
25
! !
the officially poor. In order for students to be eligible for reduced-cost meals, their families income must not be above 185 per cent of the federal poverty line. School populations reflect the populations of the neighbourhoods in which the schools are located. Schools with high proportions of low-income students have a significant impact on where families with children choose to live.
Table 4. Changes for the City and Changes for City Schools. Source: adapted from Anyon 1997. Social Change of Inner City Change in Class and Race:
! !
Effects on Education
!
Poor immigrants began to replace middle and upper classes in the inner city After World War II the city began to fill with poor, rural blacks
! !
Schools were used to serve affluent classes and were unprepared to educate children from ethnically diverse poor families School quality and investment declined as the student population became more working class The investment in inner-city education reached its lowest in 1961 when the school district was mostly black Decline in property tax revenues left Newark schools impoverished Losing the middle class (and in some neighbourhoods even the working class) meant that the schools were left with poorer, more difficult to educate students
Changes in Economy:
! ! ! ! !
! !
Industry in the city declined as middle class population and jobs moved outside the city During the 1930s federal redlining of city mortgage and renovation applications began Federal tax regulations made it cheaper for companies to relocate than renovate State tax laws provided less property taxes for the inner city City moved from an urban industry economy to a white-collar clerical, then to a service and sophisticated information base
Social and Political Isolation:

! !
Poor minority families were ghettoised in certain areas of the city Poor inner-city residents did not have the political power to change policy decisions that fostered increasing isolation
!
The poverty effects on children get dramatically worse when almost all families in a neighbourhood are poor. It brings higher rates of malnutrition, prenatal and childhood diseases, emotional trauma, lack of material resources, and child neglect and abuse, which result in diseased and emotionally traumatised children that have difficulties with learning Teachers and administrators were frequently unqualified for their jobs as school administration and teaching jobs were often given out on the basis of political relationships and not based on the person's qualification The interests of the school children were pitted against the interests of the adults in the local community
Political Patronage:
!
The inner-city school district became a primary site for jobs and political influence for the otherwise disenfranchised black community It became common for school district jobs to be distributed based on political patronage and relationships
!
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4. Indicators of Decline 4.1. Neighbourhood indicators

Neighbourhood indicators provide evidence of conditions or problems, offer a glimpse of a larger situation and help measure change over time. They also help evaluate whether revitalization actions are having the effects desired. Indicators can be used by a wide variety of people community groups, researchers, public officials, or private sector organisations. A neighbourhood can use indicators to help determine what conditions exist and whether the direction the neighbourhood is headed is consistent with community goals. Indicators can allow a group to hold itself, its public officials, its funders and supporting institutions accountable to neighbourhood goals. Finally, indicators can also be used as a reporting tool that can assist in consensus building for an action strategy (The Urban Ecology Coalition 1999). To address community needs, a broad range of information on conditions and trends over time is used. It is important to get early warnings of trends that might indicate the emergence of new problems or the opening up of new opportunities. To evaluate local conditions, design interventions, and engage in informed dialogues concerning these issues, systems of key indicators are used to measure some social, health, economic, or other characteristic of neighbourhoods. Indicators can serve different functions in different contexts. Some indicators can raise awareness of a problem or issue, while others provide information that is more useful for developing a solution to the problem (Tatian 2000). Indicators are distinguishable from other data. First, they are measures intentionally selected for tracking because they relate to important societal values and goals. Second, indicators must be expressed in a consistent form that permits comparison over time and, normally, between places. For making comparisons, indicators are often expressed as ratios, rates, or percentages rather than as absolute numbers (ibid.). Neighbourhood indicators may be qualitative or quantitative. Effective planning and action require both types of information. Quantitative data (numerical information) is commonly available, while reliable qualitative data is often in short supply. Acquiring the data on different issues (health, housing, economics, etc.), at different levels of geography (county, city, and neighbourhood), and for different periods of time can be a difficult task. There are many sources of existing data that can be used for a variety of purposes. Statistics Canada and other federal government agencies collect extensive data on the Canadian population and the economy that are made available to the public. Much of this data is now available on CD-ROM or can be downloaded from the Internet. Local and provincial governments also collect a lot of data, although much of this may not normally be made available to the general public (for example, information on welfare clients) and it is not always collected on a regular basis and in a systematic and comparable fashion. Community organizations also collect data but it suffers from the same problem as local and provincial governments. These problems at the community level are generally even more severe. A number of private sources of data also can be useful. There are several companies, for instance, that sell electronic business
27
directories listing the names, addresses, and types of business establishments throughout the country. 4.1.1. Secondary Data Obtaining data from existing sources, referred to as secondary data, is often less costly than collecting original data, but secondary data may be limited in scope and content. The main distinction is that, with secondary data, there is no control over how the data were originally collected. Secondary data have a number of advantages over primary data (Tatian 2000): ! Secondary data is usually less costly to obtain. ! Using secondary data from a particular source may help create a demand for that data and thereby maintain the data source for future use. ! Using the data can help build relationships between the data provider and the community that will benefit both groups. Some disadvantages to secondary data include (ibid.): ! Because there is no control over how the information was collected, the data may not cover exactly the population or topics needed. ! The data also may not be very current or may contain errors. If the data are based on a one-time survey, then it may not be possible to get access to comparable data in the future. ! There may be restrictions placed on the use of the information by the collecting body. There are several key issues that must be addressed when considering whether a particular source of existing data is appropriate. The first issue is that of ownership of the data. Most data collected by Statistics Canada are in the public domain and, therefore, are free to be used by anyone. Data from some other sources, such as commercial or local government agencies, may be private or proprietary. In this case, it might be a problem to obtain all of the data that the provider collects, or there may be a licensing fee to get access to the data. The provider may put certain restrictions on how the data can be used and whether they may be shared with others. Other concerns associated with the use of data for neighbourhood indicators include (ibid.): Confidentiality of the data. Some information collected by government agencies for administrative purposes may be sensitive and, to protect the privacy of their clients, not releasable to the public. In this case, there are two options. The provider can simply omit the sensitive information (names, addresses, social security numbers) from the data before releasing it to others. Alternatively, the provider can summarise the data so that it is not possible to identify individual cases. For example, welfare caseloads could be summarised at the neighbourhood level. These approaches solve the confidentiality issue, but can make the data less useful. A second option is for the researcher or community group to enter into a confidentiality agreement with the provider. In this case, the researcher would get access to the complete, uncensored version of the providers data, but certain restrictions would be placed on their use.
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Timeliness and frequency of the data. Another issue to consider is the timeliness and frequency of the data. Up-to-date data may not always be possible to get. U.S. Census data, for example, are collected only once every ten years. While the Census Bureau does provide revised estimates of population characteristics between decennial censuses, these estimates are not available for small levels of geography such as neighbourhoods. Therefore, to compare populations across cities, it may be possible to use very recent data, but neighbourhood comparisons may have to rely on older information. Geography of the data. Data from some sources may be available for small levels of geography (blocks, Census tracts, dissemination areas), while other data may only be provided for larger areas (cities, counties, states). Survey data are especially difficult to get for small areas, because to be able to produce accurate estimates one has to have many observations in the survey sample. Consequently, sources such as the Current Population Survey (CPS) or the American Housing Survey (AHS) in the United States cannot be used for very small areas. 4.1.2. Primary Data While the wealth of information can be obtained from existing sources, some areas are not covered by any pre-existing data sources. In this case one may need to collect original data through surveys or other methods. With original data, referred to as primary data, there is almost complete control over how the information is collected. The researcher specifies the overall goal of the data collection effort, what questions are asked, who is included in the sample, and so forth. There are a variety of ways of primary data collection. Surveys are one of the most common methods. At the other end of the spectrum are more open forms of data gathering, such as focus groups. All primary data collection methods have their own special technique and procedures as well as particular ways of analysing the resulting information. Primary data have a number of advantages over secondary data. Original data can be tailored exactly to the program or communitys needs. As a result, original data can provide the most critical indicators by conforming more precisely to the chosen objectives. Furthermore, the community is more likely to support a program with original data that characterise their unique situation. With sufficient resources, primary data can be made as precise as needed (such as to produce estimates for individual neighbourhoods) and can be collected as often as needed (Tatian 2000). The major disadvantage is the cost and effort that are required to collect primary data. This is especially true for neighbourhood-level data, where a large number of observations are needed to obtain sufficiently accurate estimates for small areas. Collecting new data can absorb valuable resources that might otherwise be devoted to other efforts. Finally, certain primary data collection methods require technical expertise or resources that are not readily available in some communities (ibid.).
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As with secondary data, there can be issues of confidentiality associated with primary data. If people are asked to reveal personal information or to respond to sensitive questions, the researcher will probably need to provide assurance that this information will not be revealed publicly in a way that would allow someone to associate specific answers with a particular person. In the case of focus groups, it is usual practice to have participants sign an Informed Consent Agreement, which indicates that they understand the purpose of the focus group and that they agree to allow the answers they provide to be used in the manner specified in the agreement (ibid.).
4.2. The American Experience: Measuring Neighbourhood Change

In the USA, where there is a fixed poverty line and the census collects income information, it is the convention to identify and analyse neighbourhood change using income poverty as the base. Income poverty can then be related to many other variables such as race, family status, education, employment, and residence (Glennerster et al. 1999). Lucy and Phillips (2000) in their book Confronting Suburban Decline: Strategic Planning for Metropolitan Renewal suggest two sets of indicators for analysing neighbourhood change: General Knowledge Systems indicators and additional indicators for Project-Focused Systems (Table 5):
Table 5. Indicators of Neighbourhood Change. Source: adapted from Lucy and Phillips 2000. General Knowledge Systems indicators Housing value Household incomes Mixed-use indicator and a social balance indicator Median rate of owner occupancy Indicators of substandard conditions Family poverty Race and ethnicity indicators Population and age characteristics Rate of regional population growth Median number of rooms or bedrooms Project-Focused Systems indicators Remodelling (expansions and upgrades) Violent crime Burglaries Free-lunch eligibility by school Public housing units Fixed-rail stations Transportation accessibility indicators Magnet employers, especially non-profit employers Test scores by school
Tatian (2000) presents some examples of how neighbourhood indicators were used to aid in the development of neighbourhood revitalization programs in two American cities: Milwaukee and Cleveland. 4.2.1. Milwaukee: Targeting a First-Time Parents Program The Milwaukees West Side neighbourhood had experienced substantial turnover in the 1980s. Many lower income families with older children had moved in. But by the early 1990s the perception was that a large proportion were single parents and that this
30
proportion was higher than in most other neighbourhoods in the city. The Next Door Foundation, an innovative youth agency on Milwaukees West Side, saw a special need for service in the West Side neighbourhood. According to Tatian, a First-Time Parents Program, which was developed in the neighbourhood, employed paraprofessionals to visit young parents, provide counselling on parenting skills, and offer friendship that would help prevent their isolation. In preparing the plans, the Foundation recognised the value of having mapped information that would provide clear visual evidence of the need for the program and also be used to direct resources to areas where needs were especially high:
The 1990 U.S. Census data include block group level data detailing the age of residents and family structure. Maps were prepared showing the location of blocks with higher proportions of children under age seven and with children living in twoparent households. Each block group on the map was shaded to denote the proportion of different populations in that block. These maps clearly demonstrated the need for a First-Time Parents Program in West Sidethere were high numbers of very young children per block compared with other areas in the city. They also indicated a subset of neighbourhood blocks where there was the most critical need for focused outreach (ibid. p.10).
Using these maps as guides, the neighbourhood was divided up into a number of service areas by combining clusters of block groups for maximum flexibility. A selection of detailed demographic tables was prepared, customised for the service areas. Recognising distinctions within the neighbourhood helped make the program implementation process more sensitive to local conditions. Program organisers felt that the First-Time Parents proposal and subsequent operating plans were much more solid because of the use of geographic information. The tables, maps, and additional graphics both demonstrated the need and suggested specific target areas to make implementation more effective. The proposal was funded, and the program has now been operating successfully for several years. 4.2.2. Cleveland: The Community-Building Initiative Tatian refers to the study Implementing a Theory of Change Evaluation in the Cleveland Community-Building Initiative (CCBI) (Milligan et al. 1998) that describes the initiative established in 1993 in response to a report on poverty in Clevelands neighbourhoods. The CCBI was formed to implement a comprehensive communitybuilding approach to address Clevelands persistent poverty problem. The emphasis for a neighbourhoods strategy was to be an inventory of the communitys assets, not its deficits. CCBI selected four geographic areas (villages) for testing its approach and identified groups of key stakeholders to articulate concepts of change in each of these areas. This process was further refined until the key stakeholders reached a consensus. The concepts of change produced by the village stakeholders identified a series of early, intermediate, and long-term outcomes and related them to a set of observable indicators that can be used to monitor and evaluate the success of the community-building initiatives. The result was a focused plan for bringing about change in these communities.
31
In this process, data was a key motivator in initiating the comprehensive community-building strategy in Cleveland. The initial data provided in the Case Western report gave the impulse for the community-building initiative. Data was also very important in informing and guiding the entire process of developing the initiative. Furthermore, data collection and measurement strategies were incorporated into the final plans, including a list of indicators to measure outcomes.
4.3. The British Experience: The Concept of Deprivation

In Britain, in contrast to North America, worklessness or income poverty are not generally accepted as adequate measures of neighbourhood problems. Deprivation indicators are used there, which comprise different variables, including measures of economic deprivation such as unemployment, along with measures of social deprivation such as household overcrowding (Glennerster et al. 1999) The concept of deprivation emerged in Britain in the late1960s. In his article Deprivation Townsend (1987, p. 131) argues that people can be said to be deprived if they lack the types of diet, clothing, housing, household facilities and fuel and environmental, educational, working and social conditions, activities and facilities which are customary Townsend elaborates on the distinctions between social and material deprivation. Social deprivation, which he acknowledges as more difficult to measure, is defined as relating to peoples roles and relationships, membership and social contacts in society. The more easily measured material deprivation relates to diet, health, clothing, housing, household facilities, environment, and work (Table 6). Townsend also lays down the foundation for articulating multiple deprivation as an accumulation of single deprivations - a concept, which is developed further in the design of the new Scottish Indices of Deprivation.
Table 6. Material and Social Deprivation. Source: Townsend 1987, p. 136. Types of Deprivation Material Deprivation Dietary Clothing Housing Home facilities Environment Location Work Social Deprivation Employment Family activity Integration Participation in social institutions Unemployed for 2 or more weeks in previous 12 months Problem of health or someone in family Racial harassment Did not vote At least one day in previous two weeks with insufficient to eat Inadequate protection against the severe cold No electricity No telephone Industrial air pollution No open space within easy walking distance Poor working environment (polluted air, dust, noise) Example of Indicator
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Recreational Education
No holiday away from home during last 12 months Fewer than 10 years education
Deprivation indicators are usually obtained from local surveys or the national census, with the latter being the most commonly used source in British and US studies (Broadway and Jesty 1998, p. 1424). In Britain, a number of indices of deprivation have been developed each to meet different objectives. The Jarman Underprivileged Area Score, Townsend Material Deprivation Score and the series of indices that have been produced by the (former) Department of the Environment (DoE) and the Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions, are some of the more commonly used indices. A brief summary of some of them is presented below (Devon County Council):
!
The Breadline Britain Score provides an estimate of the percentage of the poor households in an area. The index contains six variables: unemployment, lack of owner occupied accommodation and lack of car ownership, as well as three 'at risk' variables: limiting long-term illness, lone parent households, and low social class. The Index of Local Conditions provides a general index of urban deprivation and also allows identifying specific aspects of material and social deprivation. The index comprises 13 variables, six non-census (ratio of long-term to all unemployed, Income Support recipients, low educational attainment, standardised mortality rates, derelict land and house contents insurance premiums) and seven census-based (unemployment, children in low earning households, overcrowding, housing lacking basic amenities, lack of car ownership, children in 'unsuitable' accommodation, and educational participation at age 17). Townsend Score and the Carstairs Score were both developed as measures of material deprivation. The Townsend Score includes four variables: unemployment, overcrowding, lack of owner occupied accommodation, and lack of car ownership. This index is considered to be the best indicator of material deprivation currently available. The Jarman Underprivileged Area Score was originally constructed as a measure of General Practice workload. The score is used to take the geographical variations in the demand for primary care into account. It consists of eight variables: unemployment, overcrowding, lone parents, elderly, % of residents aged under 5 years, ethnicity, residential mobility, and low social class.
The paper by the Northern Ireland Assembly Measures of Deprivation: Noble V Robson (2002) provides a brief outline of the Robson and Noble measures of deprivation and highlights the main differences between them. The Robson index employed 18 indicators, covering the areas of health, shelter, physical environment, education, family, income and jobs (Table 7).
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Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline Table 7. The Robson Indicators. Source: adapted from The Northern Ireland Assembly 2002. Geographic area Enumeration district level Indicators
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Pensioners lacking central heating Residents lacking bath, shower or WC Households lacking a link to public sewers Households living at 1.0+ persons per room Households with no car Children in households with no economically-active adult or with a single adult in part-time employment Children in flats or non-permanent accommodation Persons aged 18-24 with no qualifications Unemployed economically active persons 17 year-olds not in full-time education Part-time male employees Ratio of long-term to total unemployed males Standardised long-term limiting illness ratios for persons aged 20-60 Domestic properties with rateable value of less than 40 Income support claimants Standardised mortality ratio Primary pupils entitled to free school meals Births to parents not jointly registered
Ward level
! ! ! ! !
District Council level
! ! ! !
In 2000 a new Noble index of deprivation was produced for Northern Ireland. A total of 45 indicators were used, covering the domains of income, employment, health and disability, education and training, geographical access, social environment and housing (Table 8). In addition to differences in the number and type of indicators and the data sources, Noble introduced new measures of child poverty and economic deprivation. Overall, Noble would appear to offer a methodological improvement over Robson (ibid.).
34
Table 8. The Noble Indicators. Source: adapted from The Northern Ireland Assembly 2002. Indicators Income Deprivation Employment Deprivation
! Unemployment
Health Deprivation & Disability

! Standardised
Education, Skills & Training Deprivation

! Working age
Geographical Access to Services

! Access to a post
Social Environment
Housing Stress
! Housing in
! Adults in Income
! Recorded offences relating
Support households
! Children in Income
claimants under 60
! Incapacity
Support households
! Adults in Income
Based Job Seekers Allowance households

! Children in Income
Benefit recipients under 60

! Severe
Mortality Ratios for men and women under 75

! People
adults with no qualifications

! Proportions of
office
! Access to a GP
to burglary in a dwelling
disrepair
! Houses
surgery
! Access to an
Based Job Seekers Allowance households

! Adults in Family
Disablement Allowance recipients under 60

! New Deal
receiving Attendance Allowance or Disability Living Allowance or Incapacity Benefit

! People
those leaving school aged 16 and not entering Further Education

! Proportions of 17-
to violence against the person (excluding assaults)

! Recorded common assaults ! Recorded serious assaults ! Recorded offences relating
Accident and Emergency hospital

! Access to a
without central heating

! Houses
lacking insulation
Credit households
! Children in Family
Credit households
! Adults in Disability
participants not included in the unemployment claimant count
20 year olds who have not successfully applied for Higher Education
! GCSE/GNVQ
dentist
! Access to an
to theft of a vehicle
optician
! Access to a
to theft from a vehicle

registered as having cancer

! Proportion of 12
pharmacist
! Access to a
to criminal damage
performance data points score and no qualifications

! Absenteeism at
library
! Access to a
to burglary in nonresidential buildings

! Recorded drug offences ! Local Area Problem Score
Working Allowance households

! Children in
to 17 year olds with extractions and registered with a GDS dentist

! Drugs
secondary level (all absences)

! Proportions of
museum
! Access to a
Disability Working Allowance households
prescribed for depression or anxiety
Years 11 and 12 pupils not in a grammar school
Social Security Office or a Training and Employment Agency
(data on graffiti, scruffy buildings or gardens, litter and vandalism in the area)
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4.4. The Canadian Experience

In Canada, there is a problem of linking a nation-wide source of income data with areal definitions of the inner city (Broadway and Jesty 1998). As a result, the few studies examining Canadian inner-city decline use census data, which contrasts to the extensive literature documenting inner-city deprivation in Britain and the US. However, Canadian inner cities and inner cities in these countries have much in common.
Published census sources focus upon such limited aspects of material deprivation as housing tenure or access to household amenities, while, with the exception of education and employment status, little attention is given to social deprivation, and no information is collected at the census-tract level concerning dietary, clothing, environmental or locational deprivation. Longitudinal analyses are further hampered by the collection of deprivation indicators at one time period. These difficulties have undoubtedly served to hamper the development of a Canadian urban deprivation literature (ibid. pp.1424-1425).
To document levels of the neighbourhood distress and identify distressed neighbourhoods in Canada, Hatfield (1997) used five indicators: ! A high individual poverty rate in the census tract; ! A high proportion of total household income in the tract coming from transfer payments from government; ! A low proportion of the 15-24 population in the tract attending school fulltime; ! A low percentage of the male population 15 and over employed for pay full-time 49 or more weeks in the previous year; and ! A high percentage of families with children at home headed by lone parents. Hatfield reports, that the best indicator of the five for identifying a distressed neighbourhood is an abnormally low percentage of males 15 or over working full-time. The next most reliable indicator was an abnormally high dependence on government transfer payments as a source of income. The least reliable indicator was a high proportion of families with children headed by lone parents. In addition to these criteria, distressed neighbourhoods also exhibit disproportionate incidences on a number of other indicators: housing, educational attainment, age structure, and presence of Aboriginals and recent immigrants (ibid.) 4.4.1. Winnipeg: Defining Neighbourhood Designation Indicators In 1999 Winnipegs City Council Adopted the Winnipeg Housing Policy that defined neighbourhood designations as follows (City of Winnipeg 1999, 2000a, 2000b): 1. Major Improvement Areas: older areas that have experienced significant decline to the point where housing and neighbourhood infrastructure require complete renewal.
36
2. Rehabilitation Areas: areas where decline is having a spill-over effect to the extent that it is beginning to impact the overall stability of the neighbourhood. 3. Conservation Areas: neighbourhoods, which are physically and socially stable but are showing initial signs of decline. 4. Emerging Areas: areas in which new development is being considered. 5. Housing Improvement Zones: areas that fall under the Major Improvement Area or Rehabilitation Area. In early 2000, the City sought to develop a more comprehensive statistical model to aid in neighbourhood designation and established a working group to determine what indicators would be used to designate areas (City of Winnipeg 2000b). This group consisted of representatives from the Social Planning Council of Winnipeg, the University of Winnipegs Institute of Urban Studies and the Department of Economics. In addition, representatives from the City of Winnipeg included the Winnipeg Police Service, Corporate Services, Property Assessment, Planning, Property and Development Services, and the Community Services Department. The group identified four indicator categories: Housing, Crime and Safety, Economic Conditions, and Social Health and Well Being. Drawing on information from the Community Indicators Handbook, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, the Quality of Life Indicators for the City of Winnipeg, the 1978 Winnipeg Characterisation Study, the 1998 Minnesota Milestones, and Planning for Social Equity in Winnipeg, the group identifies 30 potential indicators. Based on relevance to the Winnipeg Housing Policy, availability of neighbourhood level data, and data sustainability, the group narrowed the list to 15 indicators. These 15 indicators were further divided into two groups: primary indicators, and secondary supporting indicators (Table 9). A statistical methodology was used to measure the correlation of each indicator against the Housing Condition Indicator. Those with the highest correlation became the primary indicators.
Table 9. Neighbourhood Designation Indicators Primary Indicators
! ! ! ! ! ! !
Supporting Indicators
! ! ! ! ! !
Housing Condition Percentage of Rental Dwellings Crime L.I.C.O. Unemployment Median selling Price Average Effective Age of a Dwelling
Placarded Dwellings Maintenance and Occupancy Orders Demolitions Rooming Houses Average Household Income Labour Force Participation Rate Population
The seven primary indicators became the basis for the Housing Policy Neighbourhood Designation Index (HPNDI): HPNDI = aM + bH + cL + dR + eA + fC + gU, where
37
M - Median Selling Price, H - Housing Condition Indicator, L - Low Income Cut-off Indicator, R - % of Rental Dwellings, A - Average Effective Age of Dwelling Indicator, C - % of total Crimes Indicator, and U - Unemployment Rate Indicator. A panel, consisting of eleven experts from various city departments, CMHC, the Institute of Urban Studies, the Social Planning Council of Winnipeg, the Winnipeg Housing Rehabilitation Corporation, and the Winnipeg Real Estate Board, determined the weighting of each primary indicator, and assigned coefficients for the equation above. Although this weighting methodology may seem subjective, the model was tested using 25 years of indicator data, and proved to be accurate.
5. Conclusions
A major thrust in North American and British urban studies since the mid-1960s has focused on documenting the concentration of social and economic problems in innercity areas. Many cities large and small have experienced population decline and increases in inner-city unemployment and poverty, declines in housing condition and the presence of a range of social pathologies. Growing evidence of decline has been attributed to a range of factors such as deindustrialisation and the cycle of poverty. With respect to geographic concentration of urban decline two general groups of countries can be distinguished: those with a strong geographical core of decline, usually in the inner city; and those who may have areas of social and/or physical deterioration but these characteristics are not linked as closely to other signs of multiple deprivation as they are in the first group nor is the decline as concentrated in core (inner-city) areas. While the common pattern of urban development for the majority of cities in the second half of the 20th century has resulted in inner-city decay, the typical image of metropolitan development where central cities decline and suburbs continually prosper is too basic. Many contemporary suburbs, often inner-ring suburbs, face the severe problems of population decline, an ageing infrastructure, deteriorating schools and commercial corridors, and inadequate housing. In some countries, urban decline develops in peripheral areas that contain large, multi-family social housing units designed to rehouse low-income families after inner-city redevelopment projects. Certain cities combine different types of models. The characteristics of the inner-city decline are common to many countries. The characteristics of distressed urban neighbourhoods in Canada are comparable to those in the USA though absolute living standards in distressed neighbourhoods in Canada seem to be above those in similarly situated neighbourhoods in USA inner cities. Similarly to the U.S., the geographic concentration of city decline in Canadas largest urban regions is more complex than an inner-city/suburban divide.
38
Based on comprehensive neighbourhood studies and broader literature addressing inner-city decline, the main characteristics of decline were determined. These include poverty and segregation; vacant and abandoned property; disinvestment and economic decline; changing land uses; and public education decline. These characteristics of decline often have a strong correlation with certain ethnic and racial groups. The paper has presented an overview of the neighbourhood indicators that have been used to describe and measure the level and nature of decline. After decades of decline, by the early 1990s a major period of urban regeneration was underway. Several factors contributed to the revival. Industrial cities in Western Europe and the United States are now experiencing marked economic recovery. The urban policy debate now centres less on whether older cities will or should survive, and more on whether and under what circumstances cities can adapt to a changing world economy and a new international urban hierarchy. Future publications in this series will focus on documenting the processes responsible for decline in certain neighbourhoods of cities and initiatives cities have introduced in an attempt to arrest and reverse the process of decline.
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Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Tom Carter Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Adaptation

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

1. Introduction 2. Characterization of Declining Inner-City Neighbourhoods

2.3. The European Experience

2.4. The Australian Experience 2.5. Are Canadian Cities Different?

3. Common Features of Decline

4.2. The American Experience: Measuring Neighbourhood Change

5. Conclusions List of References

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

2. Characterization of Declining Inner-City Neighbourhoods 2.1. General Geographic Models of Decline

2.2. The United States Experience

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

2.3. The European Experience

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

2.4. The Australian Experience

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

2.5. Are Canadian Cities Different?

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

3. Common Features of Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

3.1. Poverty and Segregation

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

3.2. Vacant and Abandoned Property

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

3.3. Disinvestment and Economic Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Contingency Reserve Total Cost Market Value Market Gap

$ 1,900 $ 1,700 $79,040 $41,800 $37,240

3.4. Changing Land Uses

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

3.5. Decline of Public Education

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Social and Political Isolation:

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

4. Indicators of Decline 4.1. Neighbourhood indicators

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

4.2. The American Experience: Measuring Neighbourhood Change

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

4.3. The British Experience: The Concept of Deprivation

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

District Council level

Comprehensive Neighbourhood Studies: Characterizing Decline

Health Deprivation & Disability

Education, Skills & Training Deprivation