Prepare for the transformation

Marcelo Manucci 2012

This is a time of profound economic changes generated by a turbulent transition from predictable dynamics (based on the old industrial model), to a new conformation of unpredictable scenarios. The economic crisis that began in the United States, and in a week involving much of the globe, was added to a complex background of latent processes. For example, the redefinition of industrial forces, the development of new technology, the redefinition of capital flows, changes in modes of production and marketing, financial restructuring and corporate mergers, the emergence of new areas of conflict war, the emergence of new demands of new social sectors, the complications of energy sources and the deepening of environmental risks. These global situations combined with regional situations, such as growth of inflation, competitiveness difficulties, rising unemployment, and instability of government policies (among other processes), that shows an unknown landscape in a breathtaking and unprecedented historical sequence.

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The early years of this century have been a historical moment with a vast landscape of contradictory processes, unpredictable movements and unusual situations that appeared beyond expectations and forecasts. In this paper we analyze the dynamics of the current complexity focusing in three points. The first is related to the definition of complexity. What do we mean by "complexity? And what are the factors which determine the dynamics of a complex system? "Complexity" is a term we use frequently in conversations, but is not always clearly defined. The second aspect is related to future projections of these conditions of instability and the impact on the transformation of the business context. What are the future prospects of a new economic cycle? What are the future business opportunities? Generally, the instability is associated with negative factors. But this dynamic, it also involves a range of possibilities because the systems lose certain hegemonic structures and open to new conformations. In this framework, the third point that we will discuss is related to the opportunities of instability. How to achieve a competitive position to live in motion? What are the fundamental characteristics of competitiveness in times of turmoil?

The complexity of this time

In an historical period, there are different structures living together (social, political, economic and cultural), which are organized in different levels of complexity. Although each historical cycle is characterized by dominant models ("industrial model", "knowledge economy", "financial capitalism", etc.), with the "official Story" coexist parallel cycles with different structures and degrees of heterogeneity. Throughout time there are meeting points between these processes that lead to moments of bifurcations with changes in the life of a system. The key point is: How the system resolves these inner paradoxes? In this moment we are going through a period of transformations with a challenge of change, both for individuals and for organizations. Prepare for the transformation of a new economic cycle is a challenge that contains two aspects. On the one hand, it is necessary to resolve the symptoms to re-create basic conditions for development. On the other hand, it is necessary to work on a new management structure of the economic, social and political processes.

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The future business opportunities

In this frame we considered the next question: what are the perspectives of future development? This question has a range of responses; from technology, bio-fuels, communications, until the actual appearance of concepts such as a new conscious capitalism or a new spirituality in business. According to our point of view, we think the perspectives of transformation of future business are not related to technology, investments in emerging markets, energy conversion, or finance. Our hypothesis is that the business of the future is "the unknown" because the moments of historical transformation generate many possible states. In this sense, much of the development of companies and projects is latent in a group of emerging conditions which are unpredictable today. The unknown is related to the possible states that can reach a social economic system from bifurcations where a hegemonic cycle meets new processes and behaviors. These "break points" in the history are the cause of the challenges and transcendental decisions in organizations today. The search for opportunities and alternatives in an unknown world is essential for competitive development. Being efficient in a world known, does not guarantee the permanence neither the future competitiveness. Prepare for the unknown involves the development of personal skills, and corporate designs to address all that is beyond of unpredictable dynamics. We lived the first decade of the century as a historical moment characterized by a succession of emerging symptoms. Currently the future is open in a new landscape. Competitiveness depends on the operative of strategic maps and this implies the need to renew beliefs, models and skills. In this sense, one of the key factors for people and organizations is to expand their reading abilities, not in the way to incorporate more information, but rather to build maps of possibilities. Being competitive means being protagonists. Competitiveness is not the race to be "number one, the most powerful, and the greatest", etc. Be protagonists means to be perceived and be elected. From this point of view, prepare for the unknown involves a change of position: from being analysts of the phenomena to be the creators of events. In turbulent contexts, stabilities

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are increasingly ephemeral. This state of ephemeral stabilities, challenges our strategic plan. Participate in the complexity of the dynamics implies interact with the reality where the control is impossible. We can only get approaches to the structural dynamics of context. At this time, there are no clear and defined images of the future trends. On the contrary, the materialization of many trends depends on the way to participate and our role in the movements of context.

Live in motion
In times of turbulence, requires new operative structures and new ways of dealing with breakdowns and bifurcations of the context. Therefore, "motion" is the status most effective to deal with unstable contexts. Stability, in classical terms of the absence of disturbances, it is just an illusion or guarantees the disappearance. In situations of turbulence, strategic units can explore a new dynamic structure through diversification into three aspects of their work: DIVERSIFICATION
IN PRODUCTION:

with new proposals to the same target, expanding

capacity of value from new physical inputs and symbolic categories. DIVERSIFICATION
IN THE AREAS OF INTERVENTION:

to find new target groups for the same

products as alternative markets in new customers or new scales of consumer. DIVERSIFICATION

IN OPERATIVE UNITS:

articulating structures for sustainability and mobile

structures that allow flexibility and innovation.

We probably cannot choose the game one we get involved, but we can define how to participate and position ourselves under these competitive conditions.

Dr. Marcelo Manucci

Prepare for the transformation by Marcelo Manucci Se encuentra bajo una Licencia Creative Commons Atribucin-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Unported. Basada en una obra en www.estrategika.org.

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