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The questionnaire

Please fill in your 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% quantiles for the following uncertain quantities. 1. What is the wind in meters per second [m/s] predicted by the Meteo/weather forecast system?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

2. What is the difference in seconds [s] between the separation time advised by the Separation Mode Planner and the separation time that should be advised?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

3. What is the difference in seconds [s] between the separation time advised by the supervisor and the separation time that should be advised?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

4. What is the separation time in seconds [s] prescribed by the Air Traffic Control Supervisor for a departing leader and follower aircraft combination?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

5. What is the difference between actual wind in meters per second [m/s] (measured by the Detector) and predicted wind in meters per second [m/s] (as determined by the Meteo/weather systems)?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

Please fill in your 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% quantiles for the following uncertain quantities.

6. What is the difference in seconds [s] between the actual take off clearance time advised and the time that should be advised?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

7. What is the time in seconds [s] between start of roll of the leader aircraft and the take off clearance of the controller for the follower aircraft?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

8. What is the time difference in seconds [s] between the take off clearance and start of role of the follower aircraft?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

9. What is the time in seconds [s] between start of take off (roll) of leader and follower aircraft (measured from the start of role of the leader at its Take Off Position)?: 5%_______ 25%_______ 50%_______ 75%_______ 95%_______

The statistical median is an order statistic that gives the "middle" value of a sample. More specifically, it is the value such that an equal number of samples are less than and greater than the value (for an odd sample size), or the average of the two central values (for an even sample size). In the next 8 questions we intend to asses rank correlations between variables of interest. Rank correlation measures monotonic relationship between random variables and can be understood roughly as a degree to which two random variables take high or low values together. It is obvious that if two variables are independent, then knowing that one of them takes high values does not give any extra information about the other variable. If variables are completely positively rank correlated then if one is equal e.g. to its 90th percentile the other one is also equal to its 90th percentile. Hence for positively correlated random variables, information that one of them takes high values increases our confidence that the other one will be high as well. There are tested protocols to assess unconditional rank correlation values. Under suitable assumptions one can recover correlation value from conditional probability that one variable is above its median given that other variable above its median. If the variables are independent this probability is equal to if they are positively correlated then this probability is higher than and lower if they are negatively rank correlated. In questions 1-4 this protocol is used. We will test a procedure to obtain conditional rank correlations that are necessary for our study. Hence, in questions 5-8 we ask to specify rank correlation value, hence the number between -1 and 1 that will describe the degree of monotonic relationship between two variables conditional on other variables. 1. Suppose that the wind in meters per second [m/s] predicted by the Meteo/weather forecast systems was observed to be above its median value. What is your probability that the time difference in seconds [s] between separation time advised by Separation Mode Planner and the separation time that should be advised would also lie above its median value? Probability ___________

2. Suppose that the difference in seconds [s] between the time separation advised by the supervisor and the separation time that should be advised was observed to be above its median value. What is your probability that the separation time in seconds [s] prescribed by the Air Traffic Control Supervisor for a departing leader and follower aircraft combination would also lie above its median value? Probability ___________

3. Suppose that the difference in seconds [s] between the time separation prescribed by the supervisor and the time separation that should advised; as well as, the difference in seconds [s] between separation time advised by the Separation Mode Planner and the separation time that should be advised were observed to be above their median values. What is your probability that conditioned on the above assumptions separation time in seconds [s] prescribed by ATC supervisor for a departing leader and follower aircraft combination would also lie above its median value? Probability [0,1] ____________

4. Suppose that the difference in seconds [s] between the actual take off clearance time advised and the time that should be advised was observed to be above its median value. What is your probability that the time in seconds [s] between start of roll of the leader aircraft and the take off clearance of the controller for the follower aircraft would also lie above its median value? Probability ___________

5. Suppose that the difference in seconds [s] between the actual take off clearance time advised and the time that should be advised; as well as, the difference in seconds [s] between actual wind (measured by the Detector) and predicted wind (as determined by the Meteo/weather systems) were observed to be above their median values. What is your probability that conditioned on the above assumptions the time in seconds [s] between start of roll of the leader aircraft and the take off clearance of the controller for the follower aircraft would also lie above its median value? Probability [0,1] ____________

6. Suppose that the time difference in seconds [s] between the take off clearance and start of roll of the follower aircraft was observed to be above the median value. What is your probability that the time in seconds [s] between start of take off (roll) of leader and follower aircraft (measured from the start of role of the leader at its Take Off Position) would also lie above its median value? Probability ___________

7. Suppose that the time difference in seconds [s] between the take off clearance and start of role of the follower aircraft, as well as, the time in seconds [s] between start of roll of the leader aircraft and the take off clearance of the controller for the follower aircraft were observed to be above their median values. What is your probability that conditioned on the above assumptions the time in seconds [s] between start of take off (roll) of the leader and follower aircraft (measured from the start of role of the leader at its Take Off Position) would also lie above its median value? Probability [0,1] ____________

8. Suppose that the time difference in seconds [s] between the take off clearance and start of roll of the follower aircraft; as well as, the time in seconds [s] between start of roll of the leader aircraft and the take off clearance of the controller for the follower aircraft; and, the separation time prescribed by the ATC supervisor for a departing leader and follower aircraft combination were observed to be above their median values. What is your probability that conditioned on the above assumptions the time in seconds [s] between start of take off (roll) of leader and follower aircraft (measured from the start of role of the leader at its Take Off Position) would also lie above its median value? Probability [0,1] ____________