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EconomyPolitics 2012
10 year GDP growth rates
By Taylor R. Cottam, CFA, FRM

Updated Jan 15, 2011

EconomyPolitics 2nd Annual 10 year growth rates

The top fastest growing countries over the next 10 years (above 20 MM):

EconomyPolitics 10 year growth rates

(over 20 MM population)
Uganda

9.63%

Kenya

8.91%

Ghana

8.41%

Ethiopia
Madagascar

7.68%
7.23%

Tanzania

6.76%

Philippines

6.73%

India

6.57%

Vietnam

6.55%

Malaysia

6.49%

This is the second in a three part series where we identify the most attractive international investment
opportunities for the next ten years. We start out by looking at economic efficiency, i.e. the
fundamental freedoms and legal framework, which facilitates successful investing. Second we look at
growth rates and finally we look at places where economic opportunity will be taking place.
When you look at future growth rates, it is a function of economic freedom, population growth and GDP
per capita. All other things equal, high economic freedom, high population growth and low GDP per
capita, both lead to high economic growth.

EconomyPolitics Methodology
Estimating next years GDP growth is hard to get right. To an investor looking to place capital, it is easy
to confuse next years economic growth with long term potential. As we are no likelier than the next
economist to get it right in the short term, we have chosen to focus on longerterm trends, i.e. the ten
year growth rates, which in the end dominate.
We forecast how long it would take for a country to reach the prosperity level of the United States as
measured by GDP per capita. We estimate that if a country is free and open, they may become on par
to the United States in GDP per capita in 40 years. After World War II, Europe was poor and destitute
and its infrastructure was destroyed, but it was relatively free and open for business. Many of the more
open ones caught up in terms of GDP per capita to the United States in about 40 years.

Updated Jan 15, 2011

We use the 40 year as an anchor and assume that any country that is free and open will catch up in 40
years. The lower the GDP per capita, the faster the growth. We also make adjustments for population
growth and economic efficiency.
So where are the places that will grow the most over the coming decade? The continent that stands as a
bright spot for growth is Africa. This is the third consecutive year that we have highlighted Africa as a
continent of hope.
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

Country
Rwanda
Zambia
Uganda
Kenya
Ghana
Ethiopia
Mongolia
Malawi
Madagascar
Tanzania
Philippines
Georgia
India
Vietnam
Jordan
Malaysia
Kyrgyzstan
Guatemala
Indonesia
Thailand
Peru
Honduras
Burkina Faso
Morocco
Chile
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Colombia
Panama
Mali
China
Nigeria
Armenia

Population

Average

Current
GDP PC

10 year
growth rate

10,718,379
13,046,508
32,939,800
38,610,097
24,233,431
84,320,987
2,736,800
13,077,160
20,696,070
43,188,000
94,013,200
4,469,200
1,210,193,422
87,840,000
6,272,600
28,334,135
5,477,600
14,713,763
237,641,326
65,926,261
29,797,694
8,215,313
15,730,977
32,481,700
17,248,450
20,653,000
142,319,000
46,407,000
3,405,813
14,517,176
1,347,350,000
162,471,000
3,268,500

0.441
0.398
0.349
0.372
0.419
0.285
0.434
0.273
0.271
0.303
0.384
0.564
0.400
0.396
0.477
0.654
0.341
0.410
0.423
0.595
0.562
0.372
0.247
0.418
0.712
0.426
0.290
0.521
0.553
0.236
0.507
0.292
0.474

1,100
1,500
1,300
1,600
2,500
1,000
3,600
800
900
1,400
3,500
4,900
3,500
3,100
5,400
14,700
2,200
5,200
4,200
8,700
9,200
4,200
1,200
4,800
15,400
5,000
1,700
9,800
13,000
1,200
7,600
2,500
5,700

12.42%
10.44%
9.63%
8.91%
8.41%
7.68%
7.40%
7.38%
7.23%
6.76%
6.73%
6.68%
6.57%
6.55%
6.51%
6.49%
6.39%
6.37%
6.30%
6.25%
6.20%
6.00%
5.98%
5.83%
5.80%
5.73%
5.68%
5.53%
5.39%
5.34%
5.32%
5.25%
5.23%

Updated Jan 15, 2011

34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76

Mozambique
Namibia
Moldova
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Tunisia
Mauritius
Egypt
Botswana
Benin
Cyprus
Senegal
Pakistan
Turkey
Oman
Costa Rica
United Arab Emirates
Nepal
Mexico
Belize
New Zealand
Macedonia
El Salvador
Bahrain
Brazil
Albania
Cameroon
Azerbaijan
Jamaica
South Africa
Dominican Republic
Kazakhstan
Bolivia
Israel
Cte d'Ivoire
Lesotho
Uruguay
Lithuania
Romania
Australia
Montenegro
Syria
Ecuador

23,049,621
2,324,000
3,560,400
6,337,127
5,815,524
10,673,800
1,280,924
81,625,000
2,031,000
9,100,000
838,897
12,855,153
178,874,000
74,724,269
2,773,479
4,301,712
8,264,070
26,620,809
112,336,538
312,698
4,439,700
2,057,284
6,227,000
1,234,571
192,376,496
2,831,741
19,406,100
9,111,100
2,705,800
50,586,757
9,378,818
16,674,000
10,426,154
7,836,300
21,395,000
2,194,000
3,203,792
3,195,700
19,042,936
22,847,458
620,029
21,465,000
14,483,499

0.223
0.447
0.350
0.376
0.323
0.490
0.622
0.364
0.520
0.227
0.628
0.241
0.282
0.510
0.628
0.478
0.664
0.227
0.535
0.367
0.845
0.509
0.426
0.626
0.436
0.440
0.230
0.450
0.393
0.534
0.357
0.494
0.271
0.627
0.197
0.214
0.489
0.611
0.477
0.826
0.468
0.253
0.275

1,000
6,900
2,500
5,200
3,000
9,400
14,000
6,200
14,000
1,500
21,000
1,900
2,500
12,300
25,600
11,300
49,600
1,200
13,900
8,400
27,700
9,700
7,200
40,300
10,800
8,000
2,300
10,900
8,300
10,700
8,900
12,700
4,800
29,800
1,800
1,700
13,700
16,000
11,600
41,000
10,100
4,800
7,800

5.12%
5.11%
5.04%
5.01%
5.00%
4.99%
4.98%
4.96%
4.95%
4.87%
4.79%
4.74%
4.72%
4.71%
4.62%
4.61%
4.50%
4.50%
4.47%
4.38%
4.26%
4.26%
4.09%
4.01%
3.95%
3.95%
3.87%
3.81%
3.62%
3.44%
3.43%
3.40%
3.36%
3.34%
3.30%
2.96%
2.90%
2.85%
2.72%
2.63%
2.52%
2.51%
2.42%

Updated Jan 15, 2011

77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119

Haiti
Latvia
United Kingdom
Poland
Canada
Slovakia
Ireland
Hungary
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Algeria
Bulgaria
Estonia
Kuwait
Singapore
South Korea
Portugal
Iran
Spain
France
Serbia
Argentina
Mauritania
Croatia
United States
Denmark
Luxembourg
Finland
Guyana
Czech Republic
Ukraine
Iceland
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Netherlands
Russia
Sweden
Italy
Trinidad and Tobago
Slovenia
Switzerland
Germany
Japan
Burundi

10,085,214
2,049,500
62,300,000
38,092,000
33,476,688
5,445,324
4,581,269
9,985,722
3,839,737
37,100,000
7,364,570
1,316,541
2,818,000
5,183,700
48,580,000
10,561,614
76,146,000
46,196,278
65,350,000
7,120,666
40,117,096
3,340,627
4,290,612
313,115,000
5,580,516
511,840
5,405,300
784,894
10,548,527
45,644,419
319,575
7,103,700
23,230,506
16,725,902
143,030,106
9,482,855
60,776,531
1,317,714
2,056,680
7,870,100
81,796,000
127,770,000
8,575,000

0.163
0.552
0.808
0.565
0.833
0.604
0.695
0.565
0.292
0.254
0.516
0.659
0.581
0.959
0.723
0.561
0.272
0.603
0.696
0.381
0.323
0.139
0.460
0.828
0.846
0.739
0.826
0.269
0.600
0.262
0.644
0.941
0.737
0.773
0.403
0.813
0.516
0.438
0.589
0.872
0.778
0.746
0.062

1,200
14,700
34,800
18,800
39,400
22,000
37,300
18,800
6,600
7,300
13,500
19,100
48,900
62,100
30,000
23,000
10,600
29,400
33,100
10,900
14,700
2,100
17,400
47,200
36,600
82,600
35,400
7,200
25,600
6,700
38,300
45,900
35,700
40,300
15,900
39,100
30,500
21,200
28,200
42,600
35,700
34,000
300

2.27%
2.22%
2.19%
2.18%
2.15%
2.15%
2.11%
2.03%
2.02%
2.01%
1.98%
1.93%
1.84%
1.82%
1.82%
1.80%
1.71%
1.70%
1.69%
1.67%
1.60%
1.59%
1.55%
1.54%
1.51%
1.47%
1.25%
1.24%
1.20%
1.16%
1.10%
1.07%
1.03%
0.94%
0.92%
0.85%
0.82%
0.81%
0.73%
0.72%
0.46%
0.44%
0.42%

Updated Jan 15, 2011

120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127

Belgium
Norway
Austria
Angola
Greece
Venezuela
Chad
Zimbabwe

10,839,905
4,997,000
8,419,776
20,609,294
10,787,690
27,150,095
11,274,106
12,754,000

0.702
0.802
0.740
0.120
0.373
0.108
0.047
-

37,800
54,600
40,400
8,200
29,600
12,700
1,600
500

0.41%
0.20%
0.18%
-0.11%
-0.28%
-0.77%
-0.94%
-2.30%

Regional Differences
The region that should grow fastest is Africa. We have projected the 10 year growth rate for Africa at
5.09%. Africas young population is growing fast, they are very poor and they are finally starting to end
the cycle of war and replace it with a system of good governance. All those things increase economic
growth and bode well for economic growth.
Asia follows close behind. They come in at 4.71%. Their population growth comes in lower than Africa,
and their standard of living is greater, but they also have a greater degree of economic efficiency.
The Middle East follows at came in a 4.20%. Will the regions recent turmoil blossom into good
governance or continue more of the same. Early indications do not support a blossoming of
representative government, but, the truth is no one knows the outcome of Egypt and the rest of the
Arab world will look like in ten years.
Latin America follows at 3.88. They have dropped off recently due to undemocratic moves in Venezuela,
Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Argentina. Peru remains a bright spot, with their recent election of
Ollanta Humala who has governed much better than expected. So the region remains mired in their
unwarranted dreams of benevolent caudillos.
Oceania follows mostly because growth in Indonesia is pulling the rest of the countries up and finishes at
3.75%. Singapore is pulling their index down. Its not that Singapore wont have economic growth, its
that since they are at the top, there is not room to play catch up.
The developed world sees less room for economic growth than does other parts. They also fare much
worse in terms of debt and unfunded liabilities, both of which are weighing on the markets. The
Eurozone index factos this into the equation which is why there is low growth expect both in Europe and
North America. Europes expected growth is 1,76%, but it is a mishmash of the heavily indebted PIIGS
which lower growth and Eastern Europe which raise growth. North Americas expected growth comes in
slightly higher at 1.99, but the region is the least diverse and only of the US, Canada and Haiti.

Regional Data
Africa average 5.09%

Updated Jan 15, 2011

Rank

Country

1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
23
30
32
34
35
40
42
43
45
60
63
68
69
98
119
123
126
127

Rwanda
Zambia
Uganda
Kenya
Ghana
Ethiopia
Malawi
Madagascar
Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Mali
Nigeria
Mozambique
Namibia
Mauritius
Botswana
Benin
Senegal
Cameroon
South Africa
Cte d'Ivoire
Lesotho
Mauritania
Burundi
Angola
Chad
Zimbabwe

10 year
growth rate
12.42%
10.44%
9.63%
8.91%
8.41%
7.68%
7.38%
7.23%
6.76%
5.98%
5.34%
5.25%
5.12%
5.11%
4.98%
4.95%
4.87%
4.74%
3.87%
3.44%
3.30%
2.96%
1.59%
0.42%
-0.11%
-0.94%
-2.30%

Asia average 4.71%

Rank

Country
7
11
13
14
16
17
20
26

Mongolia
Philippines
India
Vietnam
Malaysia
Kyrgyzstan
Thailand
Sri Lanka

10 year
growth rate
7.40%
6.73%
6.57%
6.55%
6.49%
6.39%
6.25%
5.73%

Updated Jan 15, 2011

27
31
46
51
65
91
108
109
118

Bangladesh
China
Pakistan
Nepal
Kazakhstan
South Korea
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Japan

5.68%
5.32%
4.72%
4.50%
3.40%0062
1.82%
1.07%
1.03%
0.44%

Middle East average 4.20%

Rank

Country
12
15
24
33
39
41
47
48
50
57
61
67
75
86
89
93

Georgia
Jordan
Morocco
Armenia
Tunisia
Egypt
Turkey
Oman
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Azerbaijan
Israel
Syria
Algeria
Kuwait
Iran

10 year
growth rate
6.68%
6.51%
5.83%
5.23%
4.99%
4.96%
4.71%
4.62%
4.50%
4.01%
3.81%
3.34%
2.51%
2.01%
1.84%
1.71%

Latin America average 3.88%

Rank

Country
18
21
22
25
28
29

Guatemala
Peru
Honduras
Chile
Colombia
Panama

10 year
growth rate
6.37%
6.20%
6.00%
5.80%
5.53%
5.39%

Updated Jan 15, 2011

37
38
49
52
53
56
58
62
64
66
70
76
97
104
114
125

Paraguay
Nicaragua
Costa Rica
Mexico
Belize
El Salvador
Brazil
Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Bolivia
Uruguay
Ecuador
Argentina
Guyana
Trinidad and Tobago
Venezuela

5.01%
5.00%
4.61%
4.47%
4.38%
4.09%
3.95%
3.62%
3.43%
3.36%
2.90%
2.42%
1.60%
1.24%
0.81%
-0.77%

Oceania average 3.75%

Rank

Country
19
54
73
90

Indonesia
New Zealand
Australia
Singapore

10 year
growth rate
6.30%
4.26%
2.63%
1.82%

North America average 1.99%

Rank

Country

77 Haiti
81 Canada
100 United States

10 year
growth rate
2.27%
2.15%
1.54%

Europe average 1.76%

Rank

Country
36 Moldova
44 Cyprus

10 year
growth rate
5.04%
4.79%

Updated Jan 15, 2011

55
59
71
72
74
78
79
80
82
83
84
85
87
88
92
94
95
96
99
101
102
103
105
106
107
110
111
112
113
115
116
117
120
121
122
124

Macedonia
Albania
Lithuania
Romania
Montenegro
Latvia
United Kingdom
Poland
Slovakia
Ireland
Hungary
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Estonia
Portugal
Spain
France
Serbia
Croatia
Denmark
Luxembourg
Finland
Czech Republic
Ukraine
Iceland
Netherlands
Russia
Sweden
Italy
Slovenia
Switzerland
Germany
Belgium
Norway
Austria
Greece

4.26%
3.95%
2.85%
2.72%
2.52%
2.22%
2.19%
2.18%
2.15%
2.11%
2.03%
2.02%
1.98%
1.93%
1.80%
1.70%
1.69%
1.67%
1.55%
1.51%
1.47%
1.25%
1.20%
1.16%
1.10%
0.94%
0.92%
0.85%
0.82%
0.73%
0.72%
0.46%
0.41%
0.20%
0.18%
-0.28%

For media inquiries into the EconomyPolitics Index of Economic Efficiency, please contact
economipolitics [at] gmail [dot] com. Please feel free to use the full index, but must source back to
EconomyPolitics.

Updated Jan 15, 2011