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31 December 2011 Aim and strategy: To provide a total return, after costs and before tax, higher than the return from
the UBS Composite Bond (All Maturities) Index on a rolling 3 year basis through investing mainly in short and long term fixed interest securities, including government securities, government-related securities, corporate securities, asset-backed securities and hybrid securities (such as convertible notes) in both developed markets (Australian and overseas) and emerging markets.
Asset Sector
Fixed interest securities and cash
www.amp.com.au
Market commentary
Australian bond markets rallied in the December quarter due to the ongoing sovereign debt issues in Europe and erosion of risk sentiment. In mid-December, Australian 10-year bond yields fell to their lowest level since 1951 as global investors pushed Australian yields further towards those prevailing for US and German bonds. The RBA cut official interest rates in November and December by 25 bps at both meetings, taking the cash rate to 4.25% by quarter-end. The Board cited Europes debt crisis generating financial turmoil, Australias moderating growth and a milder inflation outlook as reasons for the cuts. Three-year Australian government bonds opened the quarter at a yield of 3.54% and closed 41 bps lower at 3.13%. Ten-year bond yields also fell, opening the quarter at 4.10% and closing 43 bps lower at 3.67%. The quarter started off positively in both equity and credit markets on the back of hopes of a comprehensive and credible solution to the Eurozone crisis at the European Union summit held in late October. However the market soon began to question implementation risks and by mid-quarter credit spreads had widened again due to sustained market and political pressures in the Eurozone. Chief amongst these concerns were warnings of further sovereign debt ratings downgrades and continued ambiguity on the ECBs role in supporting sovereign bond markets. The ECB followed through with its commitment to support markets in December by making longer-term financing for European banks available. The move helped credit markets rally into quarter-end.
Outlook
Bond yields in Australia are likely to trend higher on the back of resilient domestic data releases as the economic outlook improves and the benefits of the strength in the mining sector filter through to the broader economy. Our expectations are that global growth over the medium term will show sub-trend outcomes. The impact of fiscal austerity, deleveraging and a general lack of confidence argue strongly against any other outcome. However, from a valuation perspective, financial markets still appear to have run too far ahead of events. Domestically, the market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower rates to the same level reached in the depths of the global financial crisis. While further policy action is likely to take place, in the absence of an actual financial system event, this pricing remains excessive. Similarly, bond yields in developed markets generally remain unrealistic in anything bar a systemic crisis scenario. While this scenario cannot by any means be discounted, to label it as a high-probability base case seems less than reasonable. Accordingly, our bias remains to be short duration, with a particular focus on the short-dated maturities of the Australian yield curve, where pricing seems both unrealistic for local conditions and global probabilities. Australian bonds are more attractive than global bonds given higher yields and less risk if things fall apart. Corporate debt is a better bet, but favour investment grade if equities remain a concern. Manager update Vianova Asset Management (absolute return strategies) The Vianova portfolio outperformed its benchmark in the December quarter.
Contact us
Web www.amp.com.au Phone 133 267 - Monday to Friday 8.00am to 8.00pm EST Email askamp@amp.com.au What you need to know
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