Canadian Forecast Sample

Fall Forecast Report: 2009
Overview
Although this current forecast now contains a small dose of optimism for next year, do not yet make the misjudgment of referring to the recession in the past tense. Global recessionary toll on Canadas primary industries, commodities markets, and its primary trading partners have left a distressing mark on the Canadian economic landscape. Unlike prior recessions, no province was immune and extraordinary monetary and fiscal strategies were required to stem the tide of economic adversity. PCAs forecast suggests a cement demand decline of nearly 19% this year. However, some fragile optimism is now reflected in the forecast for 2010-2011. Uncertainty in the automotive sector continues to gradually lift suggesting renewed optimism in this critical central province industry. Although expectations for improved motor vehicle sales in the U.S. remain muted, an improving labour market, both domestically and in the U.S., along with consumer confidence, suggest a more positive outlook for auto sensitive provinces. Residential sector momentum appears to be gathering steam. Existing home sales have staged a dramatic comeback and, supported by favorable interest rates and overall affordability, suggest a somewhat stronger market next year. A progressing residential market carries positive implications for both business and consumer spending. Nonresidential construction will be hampered in the near-term by tight credit, overcapacity, and minimal expectations for return on investment. Typically a recessionary laggard, the burn off of inventory and a reboot of investment incentive will not materialize until clear signs of a consumer and business recovery are evident. Led by a recovery in world economic growth, commodity price improvement, particularly in oil and natural gas, will subsidize the recovery in the oil patch. Marginal gains in housing will begin to shore up those provinces engaged in forestry based production. All provincial regions are forecast to contract in terms of real GDP this year with Ontario the pack leader (-3.4%) followed closely by B.C. (-2.7%). The Atlantics (-1.3%), Quebec (-2.0%), and the Prairies (-1.5%) are fairing slightly better. Rebounds in 2010 will be led by the Prairies and B.C. The Prairie region is expected to show the largest gain in cement consumption next year, growing 3.7% from a recessionary resized market. Cement gains in Atlantic Canada (+2.8%) and B.C. (+1.9%) will follow. Quebec (+1.1%) and Ontario (+1.0%) will manage marginal gains.
Page 1 of 11
Canadian Forecast Tables

Fall 2009
Canadian Forecast
Portland Cement Association
Economic Outlook
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Econom A ic ctivity
Real GDP (Millions 2002$)
%Change
Capacity Utilization (%) Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

% Change
Consumer Spending (Million 2002$)

% Change
Oil Prices, WTI (U.S.$/bbl) Oil Prices (C$/bbl)
Labor Markets (000)

Labour Force
% Change
Employment (Total)
% Change Change (000) M anufacturing % Change Services % Change
Unemployment Rate (%)
Housing Starts (Units)

Total
% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Interest Rates (%)

5 Year Mortgage Rate Prime Rate Policy Rate
Exchange Rates
US$ (Canadian $) Canadian $ (US$)
Note: All data in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.
Canadian Forecast
Canadian Cement & Construction Outlook

Construction Activity (M i l l i ons 2008$)
Total Construction
% Change
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Residential Construction
% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
Nonresidential Construction
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings Retail & W holesale Other Institutional

% Change
Educational Hospitals Other Engineering

% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change
Cement Consumption (000 M etri c Tonnes)

Total Cement
% Change
Portland Cement
% Change
Masonry Cement
% Change
Cement Consumption by Market (000 M etri c Tonnes)

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings Retail & W holesale Other Institutional
Canadian Forecast
Atlantic Provinces
Economic Activity
Real GDP (M illions 2002$)
% Change
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

% Change

% Change
Labor Markets (000)

Labour Force
% Change
Employment (Total)
% Change
Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Starts (Units) Total

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Construction Activity (M illions 2008$)

Total Construction
% Change
% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change
Canadian Forecast
Atlantic Provinces
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cem Consumption (000 Metric Tonnes) ent

Total
% Change
Portland Cement
% Change
Masonry Cement
% Change
Cem Consumption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes) ent

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change
Other (Flow-Through Exports)

Residential Other= Improvements/Cottages Commercial Other=Hotel/Motel/Restaurants Institutional Other=Religious/Public Buildings Engineering Other=Oil&Gas/Electric/Communications
Canadian Forecast
Quebec
Economic Activity
% Change
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

% Change

% Change
Labor Markets (000)

Labour Force
% Change
Employment (Total)
% Change

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change

Total Construction
% Change
% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change
Canadian Forecast
Quebec
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cement Consumption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Total (1)
% Change
Portland Cement
% Change
Masonry Cement
% Change
Cement Consumption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change

(1)
Includes estimates for Cement Survey nonrespondents Institutional Other=Religious/Public Buildings Residential Other= Improvements/Cottages Engineering Other=Oil&Gas/Electric/Communications Commercial Other=Hotel/Motel/Restaurants
Canadian Forecast
Ontario
Economic Activity
% Change
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

% Change

% Change
Labor Markets (000)

Labour Force
% Change
Employment (Total)
% Change

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change

Total Construction
% Change
% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change
Canadian Forecast
Ontario
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cement Consumption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Total (1)
% Change
Portland Cement
% Change
Masonry Cement
% Change
Cement Consumption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change

(1)
Does not include estimates for Cement Survey nonrespondents Residential Other= Improvements/Cottages Institutional Other=Religious/Public Buildings Commercial Other=Hotel/Motel/Restaurants Engineering Other=Oil&Gas/Electric/Communications
Canadian Forecast
Prairie Provinces
Economic Activity
% Change
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

% Change

% Change
Labor Markets (000)

Labour Force
% Change
Employment (Total)
% Change

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change

Total Construction
% Change
% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change
Canadian Forecast
Prairie Provinces
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cem Consum ent ption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Total
% Change
Portland Cement
% Change
Masonry Cement
% Change
Cem Consum ent ption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change

10
Canadian Forecast
British Columbia
Economic Activity
% Change
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2013
2014

% Change

% Change
Labor Markets (000)

Labour Force
% Change
Employment (Total)
% Change

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change

Total Construction
% Change
% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change
11
Canadian Forecast
British Columbia
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2013 2014
Cem Consum ent ption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Total
% Change
Portland Cement
% Change
Masonry Cement
% Change
Cem Consum ent ption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

% Change
Single Family
% Change
Multifamily
% Change
Other
% Change
% Change
Industrial
% Change
Commercial
% Change
Office Buildings
% Change
Retail &Wholesale
% Change
Other
% Change
Institutional
% Change
Educational
% Change
Hospitals
% Change
Other
% Change
Engineering
% Change
Transportation
% Change
Other
% Change

12
CEMENT ASSOCIATION OF CANADA

MEMBER COMPANIES
CalPortland Ciment Quebec, Inc. Essroc Italcementi Group Federal White Cement Ltd. Holcim (Canada) Inc. Lafarge Canada Inc. Lehigh Hanson St. Marys Cement Group
Nunavut Yukon Northwest Territories
British Columbia
Lehigh Hanson
Alberta
Sask atc hewan
Manitoba Newfoundland Ontario QuebecCiment Quebec
CalPortland
Federal White Lafarge Canada Lehigh Hanson Lafarge Canada St. Marys
Nova Scotia New Brunswick
ESSROC Holcim Canada
Cement Association of Canada 350 Sparks Street Suite 502 Ottawa, Ontario K1R7S8 www.cement.ca
5420 Old Orchard Road 5420 Old Orchard Road
Skokie, Illinois 60077-1083 Skokie, Illinois 60077-1083 MAIN 847.966.6200 FAX 847.966.0862 MAIN 847.966.6200 FAX 847.966.9781
www.cement.org
www.cement.org
Edward Sullivan, Chief Economist Edward J.J. Sullivan, V.P./Chief Economist David E.E. Czechowski, Sr. Canadian Economist David Czechowski, Manager Karen A. Arneson, Administrator David Zwicke, Sr. U.S. Economist Elena Khersonsky, Analyst/Adm.Asst. Michael Howard, Research Economist Karen A. Arneson, Program AdmAssistant
847.972.9006 847.972.9006
847.972.9010 847.972.9010 847.972.9048 847.972.9192

847.972.9188 847.972.9048
847.972.9008
This publication may not be electronically redistributed or reproduced, in whole or in part, without authorization of the Portland Cement Association 2009 Portland 13 Cement Association

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Fall Forecast Report: 2009

Canadian Forecast Tables

Capacity Utilization (%) Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

Consumer Spending (Million 2002$)

Oil Prices, WTI (U.S.$/bbl) Oil Prices (C$/bbl)

Labor Markets (000)

Unemployment Rate (%)

Housing Starts (Units)

Interest Rates (%)

Note: All data in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.

Canadian Cement & Construction Outlook

Office Buildings Retail & W holesale Other Institutional

Educational Hospitals Other Engineering

Cement Consumption (000 M etri c Tonnes)

Cement Consumption by Market (000 M etri c Tonnes)

Office Buildings Retail & W holesale Other Institutional

Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

Consumer Spending (Million 2002$)

Labor Markets (000)

Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Starts (Units) Total

Construction Activity (M illions 2008$)

Cem Consumption (000 Metric Tonnes) ent

Cem Consumption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes) ent

Other (Flow-Through Exports)

Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

Consumer Spending (Million 2002$)

Labor Markets (000)

Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Starts (Units) Total

Construction Activity (M illions 2008$)

Cement Consumption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Cement Consumption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

Other (Flow-Through Exports)

Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

Consumer Spending (Million 2002$)

Labor Markets (000)

Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Starts (Units) Total

Construction Activity (M illions 2008$)

Cement Consumption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Cement Consumption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

Other (Flow-Through Exports)

Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

Consumer Spending (Million 2002$)

Labor Markets (000)

Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Starts (Units) Total

Construction Activity (M illions 2008$)

Cem Consum ent ption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Cem Consum ent ption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

Other (Flow-Through Exports)

Consumer Price Index (2002=1.0)

Consumer Spending (Million 2002$)

Labor Markets (000)

Unemployment Rate (%) Housing Starts (Units) Total

Construction Activity (M illions 2008$)

Cem Consum ent ption (000 Metric Tonnes)

Cem Consum ent ption by Market (000 Metric Tonnes)

Other (Flow-Through Exports)

CEMENT ASSOCIATION OF CANADA

Nunavut Yukon Northwest Territories

Manitoba Newfoundland Ontario QuebecCiment Quebec

ESSROC Holcim Canada

5420 Old Orchard Road 5420 Old Orchard Road

847.972.9010 847.972.9010 847.972.9048 847.972.9192

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