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Argus Recommendations
Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY Five Year Rating SELL HOLD BUY Sector Rating
Under Market Over Weight Weight Weight
Analyst's Notes
Analysis by John Eade, November 11, 2010 ARGUS RATING: BUY SPG: Upgrading to BUY with target of $112 We are raising our rating based on our expectations for SPG in the context of the current real estate up-cycle, which we believe is still in its early stages. During the last cycle, SPG climbed consistently for 6.5 years, and its market cap increased by a factor of 5.2. We are adjusting our FFO estimates for 2010 and 2011, with a clear bias to the upside. We are also raising our financial strength rating to Medium from Medium-Low. Blending our valuation approaches, we arrive at a 12-month trading range of $91-$112. INVESTMENT THESIS We are raising our rating on Simon Property Group Inc. (NYSE: SPG) to BUY from HOLD, and setting a target price of $112. We have been looking for a pullback in the stock price for several months as a potential buying opportunity. However, the shares continue to push to new highs. Consequently, we are looking at the stock not on the basis of this year's earnings or valuation, but in the context of the entire real estate cycle. During the last cycle, SPG climbed consistently for 6.5 years, and its market cap increased by a factor of 5.2. We think the current real estate up-cycle is in the early stages, at best. Given low interest rates and modest construction activity, we expect that the environment will be positive for REITS for at least the next several quarters. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS SPG shares have been strong performers over the past year, rising 42% while the market has gained 10%. Over the past quarter, the stock has shown relative strength, rising 14% while the market is up 12%. Since July 2009, the shares have demonstrated a promising pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with seven peaks and six troughs. SPG reported third-quarter as-adjusted FFO, including the extinguishment of debt, of
Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to each stock under coverage. BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (the benchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over the next year. HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with the market. SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the market on a risk-adjusted basis. The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company universe is: 51% Buy, 44% Hold, 5% Sell.
Key Statistics
Key Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closing price. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unless otherwise specified
Market Overview
Price Target Price 52 Week Price Range Shares Outstanding Dividend $100.56 $112.00 $68.76 to $106.54 292.89 Million $3.20 Financial MARKET WEIGHT 15.00% MEDIUM 76.5% 30.5% 12.8% 0.65 -$3.87 Billion $496.54 Million 15.38 20.27 7.62 6.18 $16.27 $29.45 Billion
Sector Overview
Sector Sector Rating Total % of S&P 500 Market Cap.
Financial Strength
Financial Strength Rating Debt/Capital Ratio Return on Equity Net Margin Payout Ratio Current Ratio Revenue After-Tax Income
Market Data
Price
($) 100 80 60 40
Valuation
Current FY P/E Prior FY P/E Price/Sales Price/Book Book Value/Share Market Capitalization
Rating EPS
($)
Forecasted Growth
1 Year EPS Growth Forecast -8.99% 5 Year EPS Growth Forecast 8.00% 1 Year Dividend Growth Forecast 33.33%
Quarterly Annual
1.46
1.00 6.42
1.61
1.86
1.61
0.96 5.45
1.38
1.50
0.94
1.53
Revenue
($ in Bil.)
Risk
0.9 0.9 3.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 3.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 3.9 ( Estimate) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 4.2 ( Estimate)
Quarterly Annual
1.53 92.79%
FY ends Dec 31
Q1
Q2 Q3 2008
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3 2009
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3 2010
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3 2011
Q4
Please see important information about this report on page 5 2011 Argus Research Company
NYSE: SPG
quarter, up 8% year-over-year. We look for growth of 3%-5% in overall industry sales during the holiday season. -- Acquisitions. The company acquired Prime Outlets Acquisition Company, consisting of 21 outlet centers. The purchase price was $2.3 billion. FINANCIAL STRENGTH & DIVIDEND We are raising our financial strength rating on Simon Property Group to Medium from Medium-Low. Moody's rates the company Baa1, with a stable outlook. Simon's balance sheet is highly leveraged. At the end of 3Q10, including its joint venture obligations, the company had approximately $26.5 billion in debt, and its long-term debt/capital ratio was 82%. Cash totaled $2.3 billion. On the income statement, EBITDA covered interest expense by a factor of 3.0. Although those ratios are on the weak side compared to the industry, the quality of Simon's assets gives creditors a high level of comfort that they will be repaid. Consider: in August, Simon sold $900 million of senior unsecured notes with a coupon rate of 4.375%. This was the lowest coupon for a 10-year REIT bond offering in history. The company estimates that it has $1.6 billion in debt coming due in 2011, $2.8 billion in 2012, $3.1 billion in 2013, and $2.8 billion in 2014. Simon recently announced a 33% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.80 per share, or $3.20 annually, for a projected
The data contained on this page of this report has been provided by Morningstar, Inc. ( 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved). This data (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This data is set forth herein for historical reference only and is not necessarily used in Argus analysis of the stock set forth on this page of this report or any other stock or other security. All earnings figures are in GAAP.
Please see important information about this report on page 5 2011 Argus Research Company
NYSE: SPG
visible 29% of total company square footage, they account for just 1.3% of total base minimum rent. Simon has international operations that generate less than 5% of NOI. These operations include outlets in Japan, Mexico and South Korea, as well as shopping centers in France, Italy and Poland. COMPANY DESCRIPTION Simon Property Group Inc., headquartered in Indianapolis, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that develops, owns and manages income-producing properties, including regional malls, premium outlet centers, the Mills portfolio, community/lifestyle centers, shopping centers, and an international portfolio. As of September 30, 2010, SPG had an interest in or owned 393 properties in North America, Asia and Europe, with 264 million square feet of gross leasable space. SPG is a member of the S&P 500 Index. INDUSTRY We recently raised our rating on the Financial Services sector to Market-Weight from Under-Weight. Positive factors for the sector include strong earnings estimates that are being upwardly revised and attractive valuations. But risks remain high given the state of the housing market. The sector accounts for 15.3% of the S&P 500. Over the past five years, it has ranged from 12% to 22%. We think the sector should account for 14%-17% of diversified portfolios. The sector
Growth
25
P/E
SPG vs. Market SPG vs. Sector
More Value More Growth
Price/Sales
SPG
VNO
REG HCP
15
Price/Book
SPG vs. Market SPG vs. Sector
More Value More Growth
KIM
P/E
Value
PEG
SPG vs. Market SPG vs. Sector
More Value More Growth
5-yr Growth Rate(%) 5-yr Growth Rate (%) 8.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.4 Current FY P/E 20.3 22.6 16.1 23.8 21.0 23.9 16.5 15.0 17.6 19.6 Net Margin (%) 12.8 41.0 9.0 6.9 10.2 -4.5 18.2 16.5 15.1 13.9 1-yr EPS Growth (%) 31.9 15.9 2.8 10.4 1.6 31.6 20.4 2.5 3.3 13.4 Argus Rating BUY BUY BUY HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY BUY
Market Cap Ticker Company ($ in Millions) SPG Simon Property Group Inc 29,453 PSA Public Storage Inc 18,181 VNO Vornado Realty Trust 15,920 EQR Equity Residential 14,962 BXP Boston Properties Inc 12,786 HST Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 12,073 HCP Health Care Ppty Investors In 11,334 KIM Kimco Realty Corp 7,254 REG Regency Centers Corp 3,466 Peer Average 13,937
5 Year Growth
SPG vs. Market SPG vs. Sector
More Value More Growth
Debt/Capital
SPG vs. Market SPG vs. Sector
More Value More Growth
Please see important information about this report on page 5 2011 Argus Research Company
NYSE: SPG
Please see important information about this report on page 5 2011 Argus Research Company
NYSE: SPG
And finally, Argus Valuation Analysis model integrates a historical ratio matrix, discounted cash flow modeling, and peer comparison. THE ARGUS RESEARCH RATING SYSTEM Argus uses three ratings for stocks: BUY, HOLD, and SELL. Stocks are rated relative to a benchmark, the S&P 500. A BUY-rated stock is expected to outperform the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis over a 12-month period. To make this determination, Argus Analysts set target prices, use beta as the measure of risk, and compare expected risk-adjusted stock returns to the S&P 500 forecasts set by the Argus Market Strategist. A HOLD-rated stock is expected to perform in line with the S&P 500. A SELL-rated stock is expected to underperform the S&P 500.
Morningstar Disclaimer
2011 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Certain financial information included in this report: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.