Ryan Villanueva APES Pg. 140 #8-13 10-19-11 8.

Compare future population projections, and their possible consequences, for developed and developing countries.

Current population growth in a country is calculated from three vital statistics: births, deaths, and migration. In developed countries, for example Italy, a net population decrease is expected. The very low fertility rate and the expected declining population seen in Italy are typical of an increasing number of higher developed nations. Europe as a whole is on a trajectory of population decline if only natural increase is considered. On the basis of the lower fertility rate US population had been projected to stabilize at between 290 and 300 million in 2050. For this projection, immigration is assumed to remain constant at current levels. In developing countries, fertility rates in developing countries are generally declining, but they are still well above replacement level. The average rate is currently 3.4. While highly developed countries are facing the problems of a graying population, the high fertility rates in developing countries maintain an exceedingly young population.

9. Discuss the immigration issues pertaining to developed and developing countries. What is replacement migration?

The very low fertility rate and expected decline of population is typical in high developed countries. Europe is on a trajectory of a population decline if only natural increase is considered. Who will produce goods and services needed by their aging population? Will their economies remain competitive? The surge of older people retiring may overwhelm government pension systems; life expectancies near 80 and retirement at 60 means decades or retirement income. One solution is to allow more immigration (replacement migration). However, it

has implications for culture, religion, etc. Fear and mistrust of these guest workers has led to violent attacks on them. Replacement migration is the way of replacing population in a specific area by incentive immigration as part of the country policy.

10. What is meant by population momentum, and what is its cause?

Population momentum refers to the effect of current age structures of future populations. In a young population such as Iraqs, momentum is positive because such a small portion of the population is in the upper age groups and many children are not entering their reproductive years. Even if this rising generation have only two children per woman the number of births will far exceed the number of deaths. This imbalance will continue until the current children reach the Iraqi limits of expectancy. Europes population, on the other hand, will soon begin to experience negative population momentum as a consequence low fertility of the past three decades.

11. Define the crude birthrate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Describe how these rates are used to calculate the percent rate of growth and the doubling time of a population.

CBR and CDR are the number of births and deaths, respectively, per thousand of population per year. By giving the data per thousand of population, populations of different countries can be compared regardless of their total size. The term crude is used because no consideration is given to what proportion of population is the CBR gives the increase (or decrease) per thousand per year. Dividing this result by 10 then yields the percent increase (or decrease) of population.

12. What is meant by the demographic transition? Relate the epidemiologic transition and the fertility transition, two elements of the demographic transition, to its four phrases.

Demographic transition is the concept of a stable, non-growing global human population based on people freely choosing to have smaller families is possible because it is already happening in developed countries. Early demographers observed that the modernization brings among other things a decline in fertility rate. This gradual shift in the birth and death rates from the primitive to the modern condition in industrialized societies is called demographic transition. Today, cancer, cardiovascular and degenerative diseases account for mortally and many people survive to old age. This pattern of change in mortally factors has been called epidemiologic transition. In now-developed countries birthdates have declined from a high 40 to 50 per thousand to 9 to 12 per thousand a fertility transition. It happened decades after the epidemiologic transition, what resulted in rapid population growth. The demographic transition is typically presented as occurring in the four phases: (1) primitive stability resulting from a high CBR being offset by an equally high CDR, (2) Declining CDR (the epidemiologic transition) Because fertility and, hence, the CBR remain high, population growth accelerates, (3) CBR declines due to a declining fertility rate but population growth still significant, and (4) modern stability is achieved by continuing low CDR, but an equally low CBR.

13. How do the current position of the developed and developing nations differ in the demographic transition?

In developed countries, the decrease in birthdates processed soon after, and along with, the decrease in death rates, so very rapid population growth never occurred. In developing countries, both birth and death rates remained high until the mid1900s. Then the sudden introduction of modern medicine caused a precipitous decline in death rates. Birthrates remained high, however, resulting in very rapid population growth.