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VOL. XXI No. 23
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION Monday, April 16 - 22, 2012
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Pages 20 Rs.12
All eyes on Subbarao
By Sanjay R. Bhatia The markets remained range bound on the back of divergent domestic and global market cues. The Nifty moved closer to the 5400 resistance level. The breadth of the market for the week remained negative amidst higher volumes, indicating that buying support remains concentrated in key pivotals and index heavyweight stocks. Incidentally, the FIIs were net sellers in the cash as the well as derivatives segment. Moreover, domestic institutional investors continued to press sales and were net sellers during the week. The Finance Ministry clearing doubts over the P-Notes indicated that it would not tax FIIs retrospectively. Fresh concerns arose on the Euro zone front with Italy and Spain failing to get response for their bond auction and also on rumours of Germany exiting the Euro zone. Chinese GDP data remained subdued along with Indian IIP numbers raising hopes that the RBI in its policy on Tuesday would reduce rates. The Q4 results have started with Infosys disappointing the Street with its guidance Technically, the Stochastic, MACD and KST are all placed above their respective averages on the daily charts. The KST has also moved into the positive territory on daily charts, which augurs well for the markets. The Stochastic is placed near the oversold zone on the daily charts. All these conditions would lead to further buying support. The Nifty continues to sustain above its long-term moving average the 200-day SMA. Moreover, the Niftys 50-day SMA remains placed above Niftys 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the Golden Cross breakout. These conditions would help in witnessing short covering and buying support at lower levels. However, a few prevailing technical negatives continue to hold good and are likely to cap the upside gains. The RSI is placed below its average. Moreover, the Nifty is placed below its 50day SMA, which is a short term negative. These conditions would lead to intermediate bouts of profit taking and selling pressure, especially at higher levels. The ADX line, +DI line and DI line continue to move sideways on the daily and weekly charts indicating a range bound trend. The market sentiment remains cautious ahead of key events like monthly inflation data to be announced on Monday followed by the RBIs monetary policy on Tuesday. The 5400 level continues to remain a decisive level for the markets. It is important that the markets close above this level with good volumes. Now, it is important that the markets
A Time Communications Publication 1
witness follow up buying support at higher levels for the Nifty to move and sustain above the crucial 5400 resistance level. In the meanwhile, the markets would take cues from the ongoing results season, global markets and the crude oil prices. Technically, on the upside the Sensex faces resistance at the 17622, 18872, 19100 and 19697 levels but seeks support at the 16877, 15478 and 14780 levels. The support levels for the Nifty are placed at 5161, 5037 and 4955 and it faces resistance at the 5400, 5681 and 5728 levels. Investors should wait and watch.
BAZAR.COM
By Fakhri H. Sabuwala The fiscal year 2011-12 has ended on a note of cautious optimism. The annual budget 2012-13 and the issues it brought about are to be dissected. The GAAR, the fiscal deficit issue, duty on gold and silver and scores of other dissatisfactions are yet to be considered for a roll-back. The market has suddenly turned calm thanks to the disinterest of FIIs and their continuous pull out of money. What seemed to be a great positive in January and February 2012, as far as liquidity is concerned turned negative from the second day of the Budget and finds no support whatsoever. The volumes and FII disinterest reminds brokers and traders of the painful 2011 as they pray and hope that it is not a repetition of that. The annual harvest has commenced and its time for the display of yearly figures. The market, if not influenced by any other factor, will surely respond to this and the guidance thereon. In the mean time, it would be not out of place to assess the important happenings during the week and base your investments on that. 1) Coal India is all set to sign (fuel supply agreements) with at least 50 power firms. This brings an end to the impasse. According to reliable sources, some of the leading power producers like Adani, Sterlite, Lanco, RPower and NTPC are likely to benefit from this FSA. It would be the right time to pay attention to investments in them and other benefeciaries. 2) FMCGs are facing cost push pressures and also the rise in excise from 1st April 2012. Both these factors will compel the companies to rasie prices and pass on the cost push to consumers. This is easily said than done. Hence, initially, the sales may suffer adjusting to the rise in prices and simultaneous pressure on margins too. The likes of Godrej Consumer, HUL, PG, ITC, Marico and Wipro Consumer Care may be avoided for now from the investment point of view. 3) Fast moving eatables like Britannia, Nestle, Dabur, Glaxo Smithkline Consumer etc. may find the going easy even in the cost push structure due to the inelastic nature of its products demand. Nestle may be a great winner as it enters its centenary year and may reward its stakeholders handsomely. 4) Tractor sales may slow down as a result of the slowing down of food inflation, which disallows farmers from getting higher retention prices for their produce. The farmers, on the other hand, are looking at smaller tractors, which are gaining popularity thanks to their small land parcels and for their special utility. M&M with a sales of 1000 small tractors a month and Escorts with a sale of 200 units plans to increase it five fold in the near future as both are the winners in this arena. 5) Two wheelers segment will always remain in the news in a growing economy like India's. Hero Motorcorp remains on the top with sales of 5 lakh plus unit in each of the last three months. Bajaj Auto which stood firm in the second place in January 2012 and February was dislodged by Hero Motocorp in March 2012. Both Bajaj and Hero Motocorp are not taking this lying down and are planning a marketing assault to make inroads into Honda's market share. Both Bajaj and Hero are thus investment candidates at declines. 6) Essar Steel (a stock which we did not recommend for buyback) is in for a great time ahead. Although de-listed, the stock may not have any price on the bourses but has a great value going by the management's projections. The company started turning the corner from the day of de-listing. It no longer a steel scrap importer and is a full-fledged steel producer with a 10 MTPA capacity and plans to achieve a turnover of Rs.35000 crore. The company also plans to raise it pellet making plant capacity to 14MTPA from 8MTPA. 'The benefit of the full steel capacity for the full year will be available only in 2013-14 says a company official. Those of us who have not tendered the shares for repurchase can stay put and enjoy the growth along with the management and reap the benefit of appreciation of values, which one day shall translate into a real good price. Guru Mantra: If there is one warning label that seems to have little effect, it is the one on the bottom of a securities prospectus "Past performance is no indication of future results."
Harvest time!
A Time Communications Publication
Yet investors regularly ask for a mutual fund's track record over one, two, three or five years, before putting their money in. Does this underwrite the fund's upside destiny in coming times? Think it over!
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Retracement level under pressure
By Hitendra Vasudeo Last week, the Sensex opened at 17407.66 and maintained the same as the high for the week. A gap down opening was a seen in relation to the previous weeks closing on 04/04/12. The week ended on 04/04/12 was short week of 3 trading days. Weak global markets on 05/04/12 set the tone for the weak opening for the week that began on 09/04/12. Later, the Sensex fell to a low of 17027.30 to close the week at 17094.51 and thereby showed a net fall of 391 points on a week-to-week basis. The weekly candle has been negative and the support of 17008-16920 will be under pressure, if we have weaker closing on Dow Jones Index on Friday night 13 April 2012. As a result of the negative candle, the objective may be to exit long on a rise to the weekly resistance of 17176-17325-17706. Weekly support will be at 16945 and 16564. The retracements of the rise from 15135 to 18523 are placed at 16823 and 16423 which are 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. These levels may be tested considering the negative weekly candle and the lowest weekly closing on the current correction from 18523. Wave Tree:
Wave Tree Wave I Wave II Wave III Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave A Wave B Wave C Wave C Wave C A B B a b Month Dec Feb March Jan Jan March November December February Year 1979 1986 1998 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sensex 113 656 390 21206 21206 8047 21108 15135 18523 Month Feb March Jan February March November December February March Year 1986 1998 2008 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 Sensex 656 390 21206 18523 8047 21108 15135 18523 16920 In Progress Remark In Progress -
Conclusion Retracement level of 16823 and 16423 will be tested. A rise and close above 17688 may mark a reversal. But till then, we may continue to see sideways volatility with support/retracement level to be under pressure. Strategy for the week Traders already long can maintain the stop loss of 16900. Use the rise to resistance of 17176-17328 and sell with a stop loss of 17500. Sell on fall below 16800 with the high of the day as the stop loss or 17500, whichever is higher. Cover short position at 16500-15886-15500 as the opportunity arises.
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with what ever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the up Trend.
Scrips Last Close Stop Loss Level 2 Center Point Level 3 Level 4 Relative Weekly Strengt Reversal h Value Up Trend Date
Buy Price
EICHER MOTORS B.O.C. APOLLO TYRES GILLETE INDIA TATA MOTORS 2177.00 509.60 85.95 2548.00 289.10 2081.0 477.0 81.8 2416.0 273.9 2085.3 482.4 82.2 2434.7 277.2
Buy Price
2172.7 504.2 85.6 2529.3 285.7
Book Profit
2264.3 531.4 89.3 2642.7 297.6
Book Profit
2443.3 580.4 96.4 2850.7 318.0 73.8 69.6 66.1 64.3 63.4 2062.5 479.6 82.3 2483.5 279.0 09-03-12 30-03-12 04-04-12 27-01-12 13-04-12
WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with what ever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Scrips Last Close Level 1 Cover Short
INDRAPRASTHA GAS RELIGARE ENTERPRISE GUJARAT GAS CO. GUJARAT STATE PETRO INFOSYS 225.25 369.55 326.90 69.90 2403.00 -62.5 320.4 122.8 47.8 1774.7
Level 2 Cover Short

139.5 354.4 261.7 62.7 2242.7
Center Point Sell Price

255.8 373.2 335.3 70.3 2550.3
Level 3 Sell Price

341.5 388.4 400.5 77.6 2710.7
Stop Loss
Weekly Relative Reversal Strength Value
Down Trend Date
372.0 392.0 408.9 78.0 2858.0
21.50 27.37 27.41 31.48 32.51
336.57 377.74 377.65 75.43 2747.00
13-04-12 17-02-12 13-04-12 13-04-12 04-04-12
PUNTER'S PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target which ever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Scrips
DENORA INDIA H.K. FINECHEM KITEX GARMENTS PAGE INDUSTRIES
BSE Code
590031 530117 521248 532827
Last Close
126.95 68.50 49.15 2743.55
Buy Price
122.80 67.05 47.00 2718.45
Buy On Rise
128.40 69.80 49.95 2799.00
Stop Loss
117.20 60.15 45.25 2660.10
Target 1 Target 2
135.3 75.8 52.9 2884.8 146.5 85.4 57.6 3023.7
Risk Reward
0.86 0.87 0.95 1.69
BUY LIST
Scrip
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER
Last Close
424.10
Buy Price
416.51
Buy Price
413.05
Buy Price
409.59
Stop Loss
398.40
Target 1
445.8
Target 2
475.1
EXIT LIST
Scrip
A.C.C.(ASSOC.CEMENT APOLLO HOSPITALS ENT
Last Close
1260.00 603.80
Sell Price
1279.30 616.91
Sell Price
1297.00 621.50
Sell Price
626.09
Stop Loss
640.95
Target 1
1129.3 578.0
Target 2
979.3 539.1
1314.70 1372.00
TOWER TALK
* Ajanta Pharma has shot up siginificantly in the last two months. Time to book partial profit and play safe. * Share price of Indraprastha Gas has crashed over 30% in single day as PNGRB directed to reduce its selling prices for
certain types of gas in New Delhi. Hold on and dont book losses in panic. * Paper companies are witnessing some buying interest from certain group of investors. Hold on to JK Paper and TNPL * At a market cap of Rs.80 crore, Revathi Equipment is worth a punt. In the long run it seems to be a good takeover candidate by some MNC. * Consumer durables to cost more as manufacturers pass on higher costs to consumers. So watch out for companies in household equipments like air conditioners, washing machines, DVD players, TV etc. * Sebi is worried at the 50% fall in number of new accounts and plans a big push for opening derivatives accounts to boost the derivatives segment.
* At least in the Q1 of the year 2012 gold and silver both have been overshadowed by equities. Against a meagre 3% rise in gold and 9% rise in silver, equities have gained 15%. Will this trend continue? Doesnt look like. * Small tractors are in great demand in foreign markets. M&M, Escorts look good. * ALSTOM and BGR are in for good times with big orders flowing in from Jyoti Structures and Powergrid for the former and NTPC for the latter. * Market grapevine says that three entities---LKP Securities, Redect Consultancy and Star Investments have lost over Rs.8 crore in Kingfisher Airlines shares purchased by them at Rs.25.01 in February 2012. * MNC counters like Fairfield Atlas, Morganite Crucible, Foseco, BASF India and Federal-Mogul have attracted good investor enquiries and are expected to fetch decent gains on expectation of delisting offers going forward. * Aries Agro is reportedly faring well with a likely EPS of over Rs.20 in FY12 and Rs.25 in FY13. The share is going cheap. * A banking analyst strongly recommends United Bank of India with a likely appreciation of about 40%. Buy for decent gain. * CG Igarashi Motors, which was recently taken over by HBL Power has major expansion plans. The share is poised to advance further. * AGC Network formerly Avaya Global and taken over by Aegis Global of the Essar Group, is expected to post an EPS of Rs.40+ in FY12. The share is poised to touch Rs.300 shortly. * One infra analyst strongly recommends the shares of KNR Constructions, MBL Infra and JMC Projects for 30% return in the medium term. * Torrent Cables is likely to clock an EPS of Rs.20 in FY12. The share has all the potential to appreciate by over 33% in the medium term. * An Ahmedabad based technical analyst recommends Alstom Projects, IVRCL, Ind-Swift, MT Educare, R.S. Software and Twilight Litaka Pharma to accumulate at every decline. BESTBETBy Vihari
Yuken India Ltd. (Code: 522108)
(Rs.188)
Yuken India Ltd. is a MNC with 40% stake hold by Yuken Kogyo, Japan. YIL is on an expansion mode and expected to perform exceedingly well in FY13. History: Incorporated in June 1976 in Bangalore, YIL went public in 1991. It manufactures hydraulic equipment in technical collaboration with Yuken Kogyo, Japan. In 1986, it started a captive foundry unit at Bangalore, which provides over 90% of its castings requirement. The Japanese promoters, Yuken Kogyo, established in 1956, are a leading manufacturer of industrial hydraulics in the world. Yuken Kogyo has 3 manufacturing plants in Fujisawa, Fukuroda and Sagami, all in Japan. Subsidiaries & Joint Venture: YIL started, in 1989, SAI India (SIL), a joint venture with SAI Spa of Italy. This JV manufactures high torque, low speed Hydraulic Motors. YILs subsidiaries are: Coretec Engineering India Pvt Ltd., Bangalore, Yuflow Engineering Pvt. Ltd., Chennai; Prism Hydraulics Pvt Ltd., Belgaum, and Sriplas Engineering India Private Limited, Bangalore. Products: YIL manufactures vane pumps, piston pumps, gear pumps, direction control pumps, pressure control valves, flow control valves, modular valves, logic valves, electro proportional valves, servo valves, hydraulic power units, mobile control valves, pal pumps, Parison controllers, actuators and accumulators. Product Reach: YILs products find application in a host of industries such as Steel Plants & Steel Mills, Machine Tools, Plastic Machinery, Defence, Automobiles, Material Handling Equipment Manufacturers, Construction Machinery, Hydraulic Presses, Furnaces and Heat Treatment Plants, Drill Rigs, Dam Hydraulics, Power Projects and the Cement Industry. Clients: YIL's major clients are ABB, BHEL, Bajaj Auto, Bharat Forge, Enercon, Escorts, Godrej, Goetze, Grindwell Norton, Hindustan Unilever, HMT, Hero MotorCorp, Honda Motorcycle, Ingersoll-Rand (India), ITC, Jindal Iron & Steel, Kirloskar Electric, Lakshmi Machine Works, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra Ugine, Maruti Suzuki, NHPC, NRB Bearings, Tata Steel, Thermax, Ordnance Factories and the Defence sector among others. Pan India presence: YIL has a pan India presence with dealers in 17 States. It has even established dealer networks in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, UAE and Japan. Financial Results:
During FY11, consolidated net profit advanced by 31.6% to Rs.10.8 crore on 32% higher sales of Rs.158.5 crore and the EPS stood at Rs.36. For Q3FY12, net profit was up just 4% to Rs.2.8 crore on 8% higher sales of Rs.40 crore. On a standalone basis (YoY), net profit for 9MFY12 fell 9.6% to Rs.6.6 crore on 12% higher sales of Rs.117 crore. Equity and shareholding pattern: YILs small equity of Rs.3 crore is supported by solid consolidated reserves of Rs.44.7 crore, which gives a share book value of Rs.159. The value of its gross block including capital work-in-progress of Rs.11 crore works out at Rs.62 crore whereas the debt-equity ratio is 0.75:1. The promoters hold 62.5% in the equity capital. PCBs hold another 5.3% leaving 42.2% with the investing public. Modernisation: YIL has spent Rs.9 crore over the last two years funded partly by loans and partly by internal accruals for replacing the existing hydraulics machinery. It is enlarging its building to accommodate the new equipments and add more equipments in the future. The new equipment could lead to increase in production by 15%. Expansion: YIL is incurring Rs.8-10 crore for the expansion of foundry casting. The casting capacity could increase from 200 tonnes/month to 350-400 tonnes/month, providing abundant raw material to increase production of pumps, valves etc. The excess castings will be sold and will thereby boost revenues. Its Foundry expansion was to be completed by Q4FY12 and its benefits would accrue fully from FY13 onwards. High technology pumps: YILs focus on high technology pumps and turnkey pumping solutions will stand to gain by way of strong revenue growth. Manufacturing of energy efficient pumps with a lower lifecycle cost and innovative pumping solutions and services will largely drive its growth in future. Prospects: The pump, valve, vane and hydraulic system industry is a very large industry and plays a critical role in a host of industries. They are used in water supply, fire protection, oil & gas, power plants, waste water treatment, sump pumps at homes, processing chemicals, foods & pharmaceuticals, and many more. The Hydraulic Industry is a measure of the progress of a nation in terms of industrialization as well as social
development and extensive use of sophisticated hydraulics correlates with a high level of development. Conclusion: YILs ongoing expansion in the castings division will reduce the cost of raw materials substantially going forward. The robust demand of pumps from all sectors and ongoing expansion provide strong visibility of revenue and profitability going forward. YIL is all set to post a consolidated EPS of Rs.40 in FY12, which could rise to Rs.45 in FY13 when the impact of the expansion will be fully reflected. Based on the current going, YIL is expected to generate a consolidated net profit of Rs.10 crore, which would fetch a consolidated EPS of Rs.33.3. The expansion will enhance its revenue and EPS to Rs.37 in FY13. At the current market price of Rs.188, the share discounts FY12 earnings merely 5.4 times and 4.9 times FY13 projected earnings. The share has all the potential to touch Rs.270 mark at which it will trade at a P/E of 8 and offer scope of 50% appreciation.
STOCK ANALYSIS
By Devdas Mogili IFGL Refractories Ltd. is a 23-year old Sundargarh (Orissa) based company established in 1989. The company has been promoted by Indo Flogates (IFGL) and the Bajorias. IFGL Refractories Ltd. is a manufacturer of Specialized Refractories and requisite Operating Systems for the Steel Industry. S K Bajoria is the chairman while P. Bajoria is the managing director of the company. The Slide Gate Refractories started in 1984 while the Continuous Casting Refracting manufacturing Isostatically Pressed Continuous Casting Refractories and Magnesia Carbon Tap Hole Sleeves started in 1993 in collaboration with Krosaki Harima Corporation, Japan, a subsidiary of Nippon Steel Corporation. IFGL acquired Monocon Group in September, 2005, with production facilities in Brazil, China, UK, USA and Taiwan, for Tundish Spraying Mass, Refractory Darts, Monolithic Lances, Robotics for electric arc furnace (EAF), Ladle and Tundish lining maintenance. In December, 2006, Monocon Group acquired Goricon Metallurgical Services Ltd, Wales (UK) and Goricon LLC, Ohio (USA) engaged in the manufacture of Darts, Lances, Ladle Powders etc. which are used by the Steel Industry. Monocon manufactures refractory materials used predominately in the steel industry, while Holfmann mainly produces ceramics used in filters for the foundry industry. IFGL currently makes these products for its subsidiaries and their subsidiaries and sell them in their home market through further value addition. In July, 2008, the Hoffman Group acquired the manufacturing facilities in Germany and Czech Republic for Foundry Ceramics Casting Filters, Feeders, SiC Chill Plates, Pouring System and Monoblock Stopper, High Grade fire proof refractory shapes and Drawing tools and Tread Guides. In September 2010, IFGL acquired EI Ceramics LLC and CUSC International Limited (CUSC), both Cincinnati (Ohio) based companies engaged in the manufacture of Isostatically Pressed Continuous Casting Refractories. IFGL now has manufacturing facilities in Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Germany, India, UK and USA. The company's product -- continuous casting refractories -- is a 100% import-substitute which is extensively used in the steel industry. It also manufactures carbon alumina slide gate plates and tap hope sleeves. Acquisition: IFGL acquired EICeramics LLC along with CUSC International in the fiscal ended 31 March 2011 (FY 2011). EICeramics manufactures continuous casting refractories and operates in the US market and has a very strong relationship with steel companies. Prior to the global financial crisis, IFGL had bought the Monocon group of companies, with plants in Brazil, China, the UK, EU and Taiwan in 2005 and purchased the Holfmann group of companies, which has plants in Czech Republic and Germany. IFGL Refractories Ltd. has acquired IFGL Exports Ltd (IEL). IEL has recently set up manufacturing facilities for continuous casting refractories at the Kandla Special Economic Zone in Gujarat. Bio Ceramics: As a part of related diversification, the company continues to pursue Bio Ceramic business for the health segment. A collaborative project has been undertaken with National Metallurgical Laboratory, Jamshedpur, for development of Nano-hydroxyapatite based Injectable Scaffold having applications in dental and orthopedic segments. Technology for several new products for dental and orthopedic segments have been tied up and expected to be launched in the current financial year. Clientele: IFGLs top five clients include Arcelor Mittal, SAIL, JSPL, Tata Steels domestic operations, and Nucour of the US. Performance: The company posted consolidated net sales revenues of Rs.468.94 crore with a net profit of Rs.24.27 crore netting a basic/diluted EPS of Rs.6.63 for the year 2010-11. Financial Highlights:
IFGL Refractories Ltd.: Peak below book value
Latest Results: The company reported consolidated net sales revenues of Rs.158.76 crore for the quarter ended 31 December 2011 as against Rs.114.86 crore during the previous corresponding quarter. Net profit of IFGL Refractories recorded Basic/Diluted EPS (Rs.) Rs.10.67 crore in the quarter ended 31 December 2011 as against Rs.3.89 crore during the previous quarter ended 31 December 2010. The company registered a basic/diluted EPS of Rs.3.03 and 9 month EPS of Rs.9.76 as against Rs.6.63 recorded for the full year 2010-11. Financials: The company has an equity base of Rs.34.61 crore with a share book value of Rs.46.58. IFGL Refractories has a low debt:equity ratio of 0.45 with RoCE of 9.78% and RoNW of 7%. Share Profile: The companys share with a face value of Rs.10 is listed on the BSE under the B group and hit a 52-week high/low of Rs.48/Rs.27.75. At its current market price of Rs.41.40, the company has a market capitalization of Rs.142 crore. Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as shown here: FY11 - 5%, FY10 - 10%, FY09 - 0%, FY08 - 20%, FY07 - 17.50%, FY06 - 17.50%, FY05 - 15%, FY04 - 12.50%, FY03 - 10%. Shareholding Pattern: The majority shareholding of 71.30% is with the promoters and the balance of 28.70% is with noncorporate promoters, institutions, mutual funds and the Indian Public. Among funds, UTI Master Value Fund has added the companys shares to its various schemes. Prospects: The company continues to be focused on the Iron & Steel Industry. With the sustained growth in steel producing capacities particularly in India and the increased demand for quality Iron & Steel particularly from manufacturing, construction and automobile sectors, it is expected that the demand for refractories and operating system manufactured by the company would continue to rise. The company is optimistic about the overall scenario for the Iron & Steel Industry particularly manufacturers and suppliers of niche Refractories. Accordingly, IFGL Exports Limited is going ahead full steam by setting up a new CCR Plant at the new Kandla Special Economic Zone in Gujarat. Once this production facility goes on-stream, the company along with its subsidiaries/associates will have production facilities for ISO products in three locations. IFGL has introduced some global products and technologies of subsidiaries in India and vice versa. This helps the company in improving the margin and profitability along with its market share worldwide. In the domestic market, it will reap the benefits of higher value-addition and better margins. Conclusion: IFGL Refractories is an Indian multinational from the S K Bajoria Group. The company has carved out a niche for itself in the refractories business both in India and abroad. In view of its organic and inorganic expansion plans, IFGL is expected to report consolidated EPS of Rs.12.4 in FY 2012. At its current market price of Rs.41.40, the IFGL share price discounts less than 5 times its 9 months earnings of Rs.9.46 and 3.30 times its projected annual earnings of Rs.12.4. Whereas Vesuvius India, which is in the same line of business is quoting at a much higher P/E multiple of around 14 times. Considering its aggressive growth plans, encouraging performance, low debt:equity and Price earnings ratio, the IFGL stock is a fine pick for good appreciation in the medium to long term. Moreover, the share price is quoting much below its share book value of Rs.46.58 which leaves a good margin of safety for the investors.
Particulars Net Sales Other Op In Total Exp Other Incom Int (Net) Tax Expense Minority In Net Profit Equity (FV: Rs.10) Re Ex Re Re Q3FY12 15876 37 14317 155 380 (6) 1067 3461 3.03 Q3FY11 11486 30 10805 9 165 166 389 3461 1.12 9MFY12 44390 115 39521 31 476 1210 (7) 3336 3461 9.46
(Rs. in lakh) 9MFY11 FY11 33048 46894 83 371 30972 43500 14 61 424 557 476 843 (1) (1) 1274 2427 3461 3461 12660 3.68 6.63
MARKET REVIEW
Economy smoulders on crude price
By Ashok D. Singh The BSE Sensex declined 391.51 points or 2.24% to settle at 17,094.51 for the week ended Friday, 13 April 2012. The NSE Nifty tanked 115.45 points or 2.17% to end at 5,207.45. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 0.67% and the BSE Mid-Cap index
fell 2.10%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. From the 5 trading sessions, the Sensex gained in 2 and declined in 3 sessions during the week. The market skidded last week after witnessing a down trend in India's industrial growth, widening current account deficit burden due to oil imports, weak global markets, shadow of an euro-zone debt crisis hampering global economy and a massive earthquake in Indonesia that triggered tsunami fears in the Asian region including India and dampened investor sentiment. Manufacturing output, which has a 75.5% weight in the index of industrial production, rose 4% from a year earlier in February 2012. It had risen a revised 1.4% on year in January 2012 compared with 8.5% reported earlier. Electricity production increased 8% from a year earlier in February 2012 while capital goods output surged 10.6%. Industrial production rose by a smaller-than-expected 4.1% in February 2012 with the government also sharply revising downward the industrial production growth for January 2012 citing wrong sugar output data. Industrial production growth for January 2012 was revised downward to 1.14% from the 6.8% expansion reported earlier. India's exports grew an annual 4.3% to $24.6 billion in February 2012 while imports rose 20.7% to $39.8 billion, government data showed on Monday, 2 April 2012. The trade deficit widened to $15.2 billion during the month from $14.8 billion in January 2012, while exports between April and February grew 21.4% to $267.4 billion. The massive Indonesian quake on Wednesday, 11 April 2012 afternoon shook several states and Union territories along the eastern coast, triggering a tsunami alert across Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. However, the tsunami alert was withdrawn in the evening. Slowing economic growth in India, rising inflationary pressure, the oil import burden and a widening current account deficit caused the rupee to remain under pressure. The Indian Rupee (INR) drifted lower to a nearly 3-month low. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has been intervening intermittently to shore up the rupee in the past few months, is suspected to have sold dollars on Monday. Oil also recovered after suffering its biggest one-day percentage loss of the year on Tuesday, hitting a seven week low on concerns about a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy. Brent crude price was up 0.2% to $120.14 a barrel after settling down by $2.79. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth net Rs.137.90 crore in April 2012 so far till 11 April 2012. They bought shares worth net Rs.44,088.60 crore in calendar 2012 so far till 11 April 2012. Trading for the week began and ended on a weak note. Key indices fell on Monday, 9 April 2012 as weak Asian stocks and lower US index futures hurt sentiment. The Sensex tumbled 263.88 points or 1.51% to close at 17,222.14. The NSE Nifty was down 88.50 points or 1.66% to end at 5,234.40. Key indices registered modest gains on Tuesday, 10 April 2012 on reports that the monsoon rains, crucial to farm output will arrive in time this year. The Sensex registered modest gains with 21.70 points or 0.13% to close at 17,243.84 and the NSE Nifty was up 9.20 points or 0.18% to end at 5,243.60. Key indices edged lower on Wednesday, 11 April 2012, after an earthquake of 8.6 magnitude struck Indonesia at midafternoon. Nevertheless, the market staged an intra-day rebound in volatile late trades on higher European stocks. The Sensex fell marginally 44.44 points or 0.26% to close at 17,199.40 and the NSE Nifty was down 16.75 points or 0.32% to end at 5,226.85. Key indices managed to edge higher on Thursday, 12 April 2012, on speculation that the RBI will cut its key policy rate at its monetary policy review early next week to spur economic growth after the latest data showed that industrial production grew by lower than expected 4.1% in February 2012. After raising interest rates 13 times since early 2010, the RBI had indicated in December 2011, its next move would be a reduction. The Sensex rose 133.22 points or 0.77% to settle at 17,332.62 and the NSE Nifty was up 50 points or 0.96% to end at 5,276.85. Key indices declined on Friday, 13 April 2012, as weak Q4 earnings by IT bellwether Infosys and subdued European stocks dampened sentiment. The Sensex declined 238.11 points or 1.37% finally to settle at 17,094.51 and the NSE Nifty was down 69.40 points or 1.32% to end at 5,207.45. The Sensex declined 391.51 points to settle at 17,094.51 last week. The next major event next week is the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review on Tuesday, 17 April 2012. Investors are closely watching and are hoping that RBI likely to cut its repo rate by 25 or 50 basis points and CRR by 25 basis points to spur economic growth. Market participants are focusing on January-March 2012 quarterly earnings and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review on Tuesday. The major near term trigger for the market is Q4 earnings and year ending March 2012 (FY 2012) earnings. Investors will focus on the guidance provided by the management for the year ending March 2013 (FY 2013) to gauge the earnings outlook.
GURU SPEAK
By G.S. Roongta As pointed out earlier in this column, the stock market has turned listless after the presentation of the Union Budget because of the several new proposals initiated in it are being contested or protested against by those who stand severely affected. Prominent among them are the FIIs who do not feel comfortable about the new definition under GAAR despite the clarification and assurance by the finance minister. They are unlikely to get comfort until the clause is deleted from the finance bill. The FIIs who had pumped in sizeable funds in the Indian stock markets from the beginning of 2012 have started selling ever since the GAAR issue came to light. Last week, the FIIs sold worth Rs.252.70 crore on Monday, 9th April 2012 followed by Rs.1039.20 crore on Tuesday, 10th April and Rs.445.77 crore on Wednesday, 11th April 2012. This sudden change in attitude from buying to selling clearly indicates their resistance to come in the tax net under the GAAR provisions for their dealings in the capital market. Although the strike by the goldsmiths has been called off, they are not fully convinced about the limit imposed on small and medium jewellery traders considering the high value of the items handled. The G. S. Roongta spontaneous strike by the jewellers was something unexpected and a rare event that nobody anticipated. But this just proves how drastic the budget provisions were to a section of society. The 2% rise in service tax and excise duty across the board is another major concern for trade and industry and will lead to high cost of production and hit the manufacturers margins affecting their bottomlines. In view of these concerns the trading volumes have shrunk considerably as traders and investors do not find much comfort in any trade made during the day given the very limited fluctuation, which barely covers the cost of transaction even by the end of the session. Thus the market has proved to be very range bound last week. Whatever fluctuation that occurred was witnessed during the opening session itself and thereafter the trading has been quite listless moving in a very narrow range. For example, the market opened last week in the red by 125 to 150 points and was within 50-75 points above or below. This frustrated day traders and forced them to square up their trades. The market had opened at 17407.66 on Monday, 9th April 2012 and crashed after opening to make a low of 17200 where it remained throughout the day closing at Sensex 17222.14 with a loss of 263.88 points. It fluctuated for the rest of the week within the range of Sensex 17000-17400. The CNX Nifty, too, fluctuated between 5225-5380 leaving very little to write about given the narrow fluctuations on the back of one day rise followed by two days of decline without any specific reason or action. According to me, this narrow fluctuation is on account of two important events that will unfold this week and are being watched carefully by the market. The first is the RBIs monetary policy review due on Tuesday 17th April that is being keenly awaited because the RBI Governor appears to be more concerned about inflation at the cost of growth and deteriorating economic efficiency, which has affected trade & industry. Given the high interest cost on the back of falling inflation from double digit to single digit around 6%-7%, there is a clear cut case for a reduction in the Repo rates and Reverse Repo rates by atleast 0.25% to 0.5%. The Banking industry also supports this view and has expressed its feeling in a muted voice stating that its NPAs are rising and the demand for funds by trade & industry is declining on account of the high interest rates. On the other hand, deposit rates are up and the banks are finding it difficult to run the show on wafer thin margins. But they are helpless because their boss is adamant and obsessed with inflation among all other economic factors, which to my mind is a fallacy as growth cannot be sacrificed and needs to be nurtured. Secondly, the Q4 results, which will start coming in this week onwards will impact the market sentiment. The Q4 results are expected to be reasonably good with 20% to 25% rise in topline and 12%-15% growth in bottomline which will need to be sustained in fiscal 2012-13. This will, however, be difficult on account of the rising cost of raw materials and other services and given the shortage of fuel & power. Last week, the global markets, too, were quite subdued. The Dow Jones index slipped from its 52 week high of 30300 to 12800. The London FTSE, the French CAC and the German DAX all slipped on account of tense undercurrents in the European Union. The news on the economic and political fronts is also not that encouraging. The US labour data, which had started showing a decline in the number of jobless, has remained flat and the US GDP, too, is stagnant at 1.8% to 2% with no spurt in demand for goods and services. Indian bourses, which had shown signs of recovery after mid-session on Wednesday, 11th April 2012, started tumbling on reports of a major earthquake in Indonesia that was set to affect eastern and southern India along with the fears of a tsunami. The BSE Sensex which gained from a low of 17075 to 17319 shed almost all the gains as it slipped back to close at 17199 with a minor loss of 44 points. Correspondingly, the Nifty closed at 5223.
Market turns cautious
However as a major tragedy was averted on Indian shores, the market opened higher by 100 points on Thursday, 12th April and rallied further to gain another 100 points in Intra-day trades before attracting profit booking. Yet the market closed higher by 133.22 points at 17332.62 followed by the Niftys gain of 50 points while it closed at 5276.85. On Friday 13 April 2012, the Infosys results and guidance was considered below expectations and hit the sentiment as the Sensex lost 238.11 points to close at 17094 while the Nifty lost 69.40 to close at 5207.45 Analysts are betting over the Nifty to be rangebound within 5200-5600 and the Sensex between 17000-18800 until and unless these levels are forcibly broken on either side by some major developments. Stock specific action has been in the offing in select cases even as majority of the sectors remained rangebound. The Cement sector, which was an outperformer, came under pressure on CCI reports of a cartel being formed by a few players in the industry. The Sugar sector was rangebound while Power & Gas stocks tumbled led by Indraprastha Gas which tumbled by over 35% followed by other gas stocks like Gujarat Gas, Petornet LNG etc. Metal stocks were subdued with Tata Steel, SAIL, Hindalco, and Sterlite trading at their low levels. Century Textiles, which was star Winnersof2012 performer in the early days lost nearly 40 points during the week but still looks FirstQuarterlyUpdatetobethisweek attractive for investment. Yourreliableguidetosureshotstocksidentifiedbyourexpertwiththree Last week, I had strongly recommended quarterlyupdateswaslaunchedon2January2012aftercloseoftradingon Gujarat Alkalie and Chemicals Ltd. Friday,30December2011. (GACL) at Rs.126 which shot up to Rs.133 Allthe55stocksidentifiedasWinnersof2011onMonday,3January2011, even in subdued market sentiment last turnedouttobegainersfromtheirclosingpricesonFriday,31December week. This proves our readers strong faith 2010,totheirrespectivehighsin2011. and follow up on our recommendations. Althoughmostofthemsufferedwiththerestofthemarketthereafterthey Arvind Ltd, Graphite India, Andhra havereboundedasseenfromthepricesonFriday,2December2011.Andif Sugars, Ashok Leyland, Sarda Energy and thistrendcontinues,thenchancesoftheirturningwinnersarebrightin Minerals also exhibited strength in this keepingwiththetrackrecordofWinnerslaunchedsince2006. sluggish market on account of their good Itsnottoolatetosubscribethreequarterlyupdatesarestilltobereleased fundamentals. Sarda Energy gained 6% at Rs.142 on Wednesday, 11th April 2012. MakesureyoubookWinnersof2012foraroundtheyearbankoftradable& After the RBI policy on 17th April and the investmentstockswithdefinedlevelsofsupports&resistances. Price:Rs.5000perannum. flurry of Q4 results, the market is likely to TobookyourcopycontactMoneyTimeson02222684805oremail provide a clear direction of its future moneytimes@vsnl.com course of action. Investors must therefore hold on to their good stocks during the Results season.
STOCK WATCH - By Saarthi Globus Spirits (Code: 533104) (Rs.102.35) is a leading alcohol player engaged in manufacturing, marketing,
and sale of branded Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), country liquor and bulk alcohol comprising rectified spirits and ENA. It has been a pioneer in branding country liquor and enjoys market leadership in Haryana, Rajasthan & Delhi with market share of 30%, 24% and 25% respectively. It has recently launched the Nimboo brand in Haryana, which became a runaway success. Its distribution network is spread across 7 states of North India and 2 states of South India. Under the IMFL segment it owns brands like Country Club whisky, Le Mans brandy, Hannibal XXX rum, White Lace gin and vodka, Samurai rum & brandy, Academy etc. It also undertakes bottling contracts to cater to renowned Indian players and bottles reputed brands like Officer's Choice, Class Grain Vodka, Aristocrat Premium Whisky, Bonnie Scot etc. It has an exclusive tie-up with ABD Ltd for IMFL bottling in Rajasthan & Haryana for supplying 1.5mn cases per year. The company operates three distilleries, one at Behror, Rajasthan and the other two at Haryana with total combined capacity of 84.4 million bulk litres. Recently, it has modernized/expanded capacity and is expected to end the current year with a topline of Rs.575 crore with bottomline of Rs.45 crore. At the current market cap of Rs.250 crore, it is trading at a multiple of merely 5.5x times. A decent medium term bet.
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On account of its erratic and lumpy quarterly performance, the share price of Bliss GVS Pharma (Code: 506197) (Rs.22.85) is lying low with no interest of institutional investors. However on an annual basis, it has recorded consistent growth in topline as well as bottomline. The company is engaged in the niche business of female contraceptives, soft pessaries and suppositories. Its branded over the counter (OTC) products Today female contraceptive & Maitri lubricant pessary are fairly popular in overseas as well as Indian markets. Apart from OTC, it
manufactures a wide range of prescription drugs in pessary formulations, suppository formulations, calcium preparation, protein powders, iron preparation and other formulations covering therapeutics like antibiotics, analgesics & antipyretics, respiratory, anti-inflammatory, dermatological preparations, anti-diarrhoeal etc. However, 90% of its business depends on export of anti-malarial products and that too mainly to African countries. Currently, it has a manufacturing plant in Palghar, near Mumbai, which complies with all norms laid down by Food & Drug Administration (FDA) and maintains high International GMP standards. As of now, it is in the midst of putting up a new plant adjacent to its existing unit, dedicated for suppositories. This project is near completition and commercial production is expected to begin soon. Company intends to get this new plant certified by various international agencies like UKMHRA etc. Moreover, it has set up Lozenges (Herbal) Plant at Nairobi, Kenya. It has also incorporated a 100% subsidiary Bliss GVS International PTE Ltd. in Singapore to oversee the business of exports. Further, it has entered into a JV at Kuwait to establish a suppository manufacturing facility for manufacturing, selling and distribution of suppositories and other pharma products. This JV provides the company local presence in the Middle East. In the longer term, the company aims to setup three more factories overseas through joint ventures/technology transfer in African countries within span of next five years. Fundamentally, for nine months ending 31 December 2011, its sales jumped by 25% to Rs.195 crore whereas profit after tax grew marginally to Rs.45 crore posting an EPS of Rs.4.40 on its equity of Rs.10.30 crore having face value as Rs.1 per share. It may clock a turnover of Rs.275 crore with net profit of Rs.50 crore for FY12. It is among the few companies enjoying an OPM of ~30% and being a debt-free company clocks an NPM of ~20%. At the current market cap of less than Rs.250 crore, the stock is trading relatively cheap at a P/E multiple of ~5x times and deserves much better valuation. Hold on to your positions.
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Irrespective of strong fundamentals & healthy cash flow, ABC Bearings (Code: 505665) (Rs.104.50) has been trading at low double digit multiples over the years. It is one of the oldest bearing companies engaged in manufacturing of taper roller bearings, cylindrical roller bearings and spherical roller bearings. In fact, it is Indias largest producer of taper roller bearings and the third largest for cylindrical roller bearings after FAG and NRB. It is known for manufacturing a wide range of bearings in various sizes from 42 mm to 250 mm for taper roller bearings and 32 mm to 160 mm for cylindrical roller bearings. Its clientele includes all auto majors like Tata Motors, M&M, Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors, Swaraj Mazda, Force, etc. In addition, it also exports bearings to countries such as USA, Canada, UK, Srilanka, Bangladesh, Singapore etc. Besides, the company also has presence in the replacement market and has established a strong distribution and retail network to cover 29 states and 625 districts across India. Apart from bearings, the company has ventured into grease and formulated special product for roller and antifriction bearings. It markets grease under brand name ABC GP3 Grease in packing of 200 gms to 180 kg to cater the after market segment. Companys manufacturing plants are in Gujarat and Uttrakhand having total installed capacity of 7.20 million bearings per annum. Recently, the company formed a JV company with its technological partner NSK of Japan to manufacture customized ball bearings in Chennai. Due to stiff competition and in order to reduce its dependence on OEMs, the company is planning to increase its business from the replacement market. It plans to further strengthen its service network comprising nine warehouses, 168 dealers, 1000 retailers across India. For future growth, it also intends to enter the railway bearings segment and supply wheel bearings for freight wagons. For the first three quarters of FY12, it reported a marginal fall in sales to Rs.128 crore but net profit declined by 30% to Rs.12.50 crore. Hence it is expected to clock a turnover of Rs.190 crore with net profit of Rs.18-20 crore i.e. EPS of Rs.16 on its equity of Rs.11.50 crore for FY12. It may declare 50% dividend which gives an impressive yield of almost ~5% at CMP. A relatively safe bet.
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Since Sterling Biotech (Code: 512299) (Rs.10.08) has reported a huge loss for the December 2011 quarter on account of some extraordinary items, its share price has again fallen by 50% in the last couple of quarters. Accordingly for the financial year ending 31 December 2011, its sales stood at Rs.1671 crore, EBITDA at Rs.647 crore but net profit was merely Rs.20 crore including an extraordinary loss of Rs.96 crore. The company is the largest producer of pharmaceutical and neutraceutical gelatin in India and Asia as well. It has more that 9% of the global market share in pharmaceutical gelatin and is amongst the top five gelatin producers globally with 6.5% global market share. Besides, it is one of the few companies in the world to manufacture Co-enzyme Q10 (CoQ10), a nutrient through the fermentation route. The fermentation route product has a better therapeutic index and absorption than from other processes. The primary raw materials required for the manufacture of gelatin are buffalo bones, lime and HCL. And due to the abundance of availability and cheap raw material cost in India, company claims to be the lowest cost producer of gelatin, globally. It operates two manufacturing facilities in Vadodara, Gujarat, and one in Ooty, Tamil Nadu. In a highly capital-intensive industry, the company has developed world-class technology for gelatin by establishing state-of-the-art facilities. It has invested a significant amount of resources on Research & Development and has set up a state-of-theart R&D facility in Vadodara which is engaged in development of complex and niche generic active substances for leading generic players
from Europe and other regulasted markets. Of late, the company has developed and launched four new complex API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) products in oncology and cardiovascular therapeutic segments. These API products have been developed in-house by the company. For future growth, the company is looking to expand its manufacturing capacities for gelatin as it is operating at 100% capacity utilization. Secondly, it is working towards introducing more complex pharmaceutical products in niche therapeutic segments and venture into contract manufacturing. Technically, the share price has been beaten down mercilessly and is available at 10% of its 52w high. In the backdrop of sharp rupee depreciation, market experts are apprehensive about companys ability to honour its FCCB redemption. As on 31st December 2011, company had total outstanding debt of Rs.4261 crore. But despite having high debt equity ratio of 1.7x, its EV/EBITDA at the current market cap works out to 7x which is arguably cheap. Long-term investors can buy this niche pharma company at the current levels.
FIFTY FIFTY
By kukku
Investment Call * Hikal Ltd. (Rs.283.25)- Established in 1988, Hikal is a reliable partner of choice of leading pharmaceutical, biotech and
agrochemical companies as it manufactures and markets fine chemicals for the pharmaceutical and agrochemical industries. It provides active ingredients, intermediates and R&D services and solutions in a safe, secure and confidential manner. Hikals advanced manufacturing facilities have been inspected and approved by leading global players in the crop protection and pharmaceutical sectors. The company has also commissioned Acoris Research, a state-of-the-art contract research facility at the International Biotech Park, Pune. Hikal is among the very few companies in which the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has invested. This finance arm of the World Bank has put in around US$ 15 million for an 8.2% stake through preferential allotment of equity shares at Rs.464 per share. The promoter group includes the Kalyani Group, which holds around 34% equity. The Hiremath family owns 34%. The company is fully backward integrated, undertaking research to producing intermediaries and then APIs. R&D plays a big role in ensuring better margins as it can mould a particular configuration of an API suitable to the costing without changing the basic ingredients and the recipe of the product. Over the years, Hikal has expanded its list of MNC customers for contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS). Starting with Pfizer, Bayer and Alpharma, the company today has increased the total number of such clients to 14 from just six customers beginning March 2010. After witnessing a very bad financial performance in FY11, the management is extremely optimistic about its future. This optimism is due to inventory rationalization as most of its clients carrying little inventory. Its debt stands around Rs.500 crore and the company has plans to pay off around Rs.50-60 crore during the rest of the year. The average cost of debt is around 9-9.5%. The company has fully paid off its FCCBs during FY11 by borrowing local debt. The company has reported encouraging results as Net profit rose 152.22% to Rs.13.04 crore in Q3FY12 as against Rs.5.17 crore in Q3FY11. Sales rose 84.03% to Rs.185.48 crore in Q3FY12 from Rs.100.79 crore in Q3FY11. For the nine months ended 31 December 2011, Net sales grew 38% YoY to Rs.472.88 crore. Even after the increase in interest cost by 20% to Rs.35.22 crore and depreciation by 13% to Rs.31.73 crore, there was 48% growth in PBT before forex gain/(loss) to Rs.51.84 crore. However, after adjusting the forex loss of Rs.11.56 crore compared to Rs.4.16 crore in the corresponding previous period, the growth stood reduced to 31% to Rs.40.28 crore at PBT level. Had the company followed the earlier accounting method, PBT would have been higher by Rs.12.62 crore. Commenting on its nine monthly performance, the management has given an optimistic view of the future. The book value of the Hikal share is likely to be around Rs.210 on 31 march 2012 with an expected EPS of Rs.38/40. The stock is currently available at P/E multiple of around 7 on its FY12 estimated earnings. Its 52 week high is Rs.348. Investors can keep a watch to accumulate this stock on dips for decent long term growth. * Anil Ltd. (Rs.237.20), formerly Anil Products Limited, is engaged in manufacturing starches and its derivatives. The companys products include Native Starch, Chemical Starch, Modified Starches, Dextrins, Dextrose Monohydrate, Liquid Glucose, Corn Syrup, and Sorbitol. It supplies its products to various industries such as textile, food & beverages, paper, pharmaceuticals and animal feeds. Anil Limited manufactures technically advanced products and has an international network in over 30 countries. It is 73-year old company situated in about 40 acres at a prime location in Ahmedabad. The company also has good land at Savli near Baroda. With increasing demand for Food, Pharmaceuticals, Animal Health Care, Paper and Textile products, the demand for its specialty starches and derivatives is consistently increasing. Due to attractive export opportunities and increase in global consumption of these products, it is set for substainable growth.
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Acceptability of the company as a global player is now being established as demand is expected to grow further from Asian, African & European countries. With Foreign Direct Investment being allowed in the retail sector and consequent entry of large international retail chains, the FMCG industry will see some structural changes, which could result in a strong growth momentum. With an expected EPS of around Rs.48, RONW OF around 35%, strong asset base, the stock looks attractive for buying on dips. Its 52 week high/low is Rs.349/Rs.206. On 20th December 2011, when most stocks made their lows, this stock was around Rs.233 level. Thus at the current valuation of Rs.240 its downside is limited. Investors can keep a watch to accumulate this stock on dips for decent long-term growth.
Market Guidance * Gati Ltd (Rs.33.05), Supply chain solutions provider Gati is joining hands with Japanese logistics services firm, Kintetsu
World Express (KWE), to form a joint venture Gati-Kintesu Express, which will see the merger of the express distribution and supply chain businesses of both the firms. While Gati will hold a majority stake of 70% in the joint venture, the Japanese partner will hold the remaining 30%. Gati's entire express distribution and supply chain (EDSC) business will move into the joint venture through a business transfer agreement, a process that will take another two months for completion. KWE will be infusing capital of Rs.267 crore for its 30% share in the joint venture through a combination of primary and secondary acquisition of shares. The company has a significant client base in Japan including some of the top names in the electronics and IT industries. As per the management The deal will significantly reduce the debt on the books of the parent company. The debt of Rs.330 crore that is carried by Gati's EDSC business will now move to the joint venture. The investment of Rs.267 crore from KWE will be primarily used to retire this debt in the new venture.Gati's bottom-line will improve as dividends from the joint venture will come to the parent company, while its profits will be seen in the consolidated results of Gati. Furthermore, the deal will reduce the interest burden of Gati by about Rs.35 crore. Gati's EDSC business is expected to rake in revenues of Rs.950 crore this fiscal, up from Rs.800 crore last year. Shipping business Gati will become debt-free after it finalises another joint venture with a global shipping company, in which it will move its entire shipping business. The management is hopeful to finalise a deal in the next two months where Gati will hold 50% stake in this joint venture, Mr. Agarwal said. As in the case of the Gati-KWE deal, the shipping venture will also take on its book Gati's debt of Rs.120 crore currently carried by its shipping division. Hence, after the shipping deal, Gati will become entirely debt-free. The Gati-KWE venture will combine Gati's expertise in 3PL (third party logistics) and express distribution in India with KWE's freight forwarding expertise and global customer base. In view of the above developments, investors can accumulate this stock on every dip for decent growth in the medium term. * KNR Construction (Rs.126.25) is one of the best stocks in the infrastructure sector having strong order position, low debts & good execution capability. Book value is around Rs.140 while expected EPS is around 25. Investors can hold this stock or even accumulate on dips. * Supreme Infra (Rs.298) was recommended in this column from much lower levels and touched a new high during the week. Investors can book part profit and switch to stocks like KNR Construction or PETRON Engineering. * Tecpro System (Rs.200) was timely advised in this column two weeks back around Rs.155/160 level. Investors can continue to hold the same for a target of Rs.250. * HALDYN (Rs.15.62) has done well during the week, Investors can continue to hold the same for higher levels. * NESCO (Rs.649.10) - In the current uncertain situation, this is one of the best stocks to stay invested in. * Bharat Bijlee (Rs.607.60) has corrected well from its 52 week high of Rs.1183 to the current level, investors can keep accumulating this stock on dips with a book value of Rs.525 and dividend of 250%. Downside risk is limited. * DISA Industry (Rs.3524.90), was recommended from lower levels and has given good capital appreciation over the last 15 months. Investors can book part profit and lock the same in stocks like Ingersole Rand or Clariant. * Modison Metals (Rs.41.95), has remained firm over last few weeks. Sustained closing above Rs.45, is likely to give fresh upmove. Investors can continue to hold it as a long term portfolio pick. * PTC Finance (Rs.15.90) & PTC Ltd. (Rs.63.75) will both benefit from the increase in the tariff rate of state electricity boards. Both these stocks were advised at lower levels. Investors can continue to hold the same. Traders can keep a watch on Prime Focus for a short-term upmove.
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Note: - Investors can start slowly deploying cash in stages whenever there is a sharp dip in the market as most negative factors seem to have already been discounted for by market.
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
Balkrishna Industries: Big expansion on

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. (BIL) (Code: 502355) (Rs.272) has produced excellent numbers for Q3FY12 wherein its net profit rose 90% giving a quarterly EPS of Rs.7.5 and 9MFY12 EPS of Rs.19.9. The share is available at a forward P/E of 8.8 on estimated EPS of Rs.27 for FY12. Seeing the huge potential, BIL has chalked out plans to set up greenfield tyre plant at a capital outlay of Rs.1,800 crore. Incorporated in 1961, BIL commenced tyre operations in 1987. From the Siyaram Podar stable, it is the world's premier manufacturer of pneumatic tyres for special off the road, off-highway applications. Its range of off-highway tyres includes agricultural, industrial, material handling, forestry, lawn and garden, construction and earth moving tyres. BIL today is one of the worlds leading manufacturer and has the widest product range containing more that 1900 SKUs (Stock Keeping Units) and is a One Stop Shop for off-highway tyre (OFT) solutions. Its tyres are sold under the BKT brand. The BKT brand, which has a strong global presence with 110 distributors in 75 countries. Its plants are located at Bhiwadi, Chopanki and Waluj. Having set up a 5MW wind energy farm in Rajasthan, which meets 40% of its Bhiwadi plants power requirement, BIL saves substantial sums on energy. The company has established its presence in this segment with over 1900 SKU (stock keeping unit) for Agricultural, Industrial & Construction and Earthmoving applications. BIL has an achievable production capacity of 1,44,000 TPA. The key raw materials required by the company are natural rubber, synthetic rubber, tyre cord fabric, carbon black and other chemicals. BIL has four subsidiaries viz. Balkrishna Paper Mills (100%), Balkrishna Synthetics (100%), BKT Tyres (80%), BKT Exim (100%). Through BKT Exim, it controls subsidiary companies like BKT (Europe) Ltd, BKT Europe S.R.L. and BKT (USA) Inc. Balkrishna Paper Mills and Balkrishna Synthetics represent the erstwhile paper and textile businesses of BIL. As per a plan of restructuring BIL, the company had hived-off the paper and the textile operations into two different subsidiaries as mentioned above. This enabled BIL to focus on its core business of tyres. OHT is a niche segment in the tyre industry, which finds applications in farm equipment, material handling and in construction & earthmoving equipments. These tyres are customised made to order tyres. They are different from other highway tyres primarily on account of customised properties to meet special surface requirements, soil compaction, and weather conditions. During FY11, BIL posted 11% lower net profit of Rs.194.6 crore on 40% higher consolidated sales of Rs.2192 crore and the EPS was Rs.20.2. It paid a dividend of 70%. During Q3FY12, although sales on standalone basis went up by 53% to Rs.759 crore, net profit zoomed 91% to Rs.73 crore giving quarterly EPS of Rs.7.6. During 9MFY12, net profit jumped 44% to Rs.192 crore on 42% increased sales of Rs.2021 crore. The EPS for 9MFY12 works out to Rs.20. BILs equity capital is Rs.19.3 crore. With reserves of Rs.842 crore, the book value of its share works out to Rs.89. The value of the gross block is Rs.1215 crore whereas the debt:equity ratio works out to 0.72:1. The promoters hold 54.4% in the equity capital, foreign holding is 16.6%. Institutions hold 14.5% and with PCBs holding 2.4% leaves 12.1% with the investing public. About 88% of its tyre production is exported, of which 47% is sold in Europe, where farms are large with scientific methods of farming requiring tractors with different types of tyre for the agribusinesses. Other major markets for BKT are North & South America (23%) & Middle East followed by, Africa, Australia & Asia. Around 1012% of the sales volume is to vehicle OEMs, while the rest being sold to the aftermarket. In addition to distributors, BIL also has its own representatives in the UK, USA & Italy. BIL caters to the demand from the replacement segment, OEM segment and also the outsourcing requirement of global tyre giants like Michelin, Goodyear and Vredestine (Apollo Group Company). The company has a wide spread dealer network in the domestic and overseas markets and has a total of 200+ distributors spread across the globe. Of this 20 distributors cater to the domestic market while the balance operate in overseas markets. During FY11, BIL incurred Rs.131 crore towards a new warehouse for storing raw materials and finished goods. In addition it spent Rs.55 crore on de-bottlenecking all the three plants during H1FY12. This has resulted in adding up to 32,000 TPA of capacity. Therefore the initial capex incurred for the OTR steel capacity would enable BIL to gain a foothold in the high margin OTR steel radial space. Going ahead, the greenfield capacity coupled with investments in warehouses would enable it to cater to the incremental demand from its customers. BIL has lined up a burgeoning expansion costing Rs.1,800 crore over the next 2-3 years towards setting up of a new greenfield plant at Bhuj in Gujarat. Being near the Mundra Port, it would reduce the logistics cost of exports. The new
plant will have an installed capacity of 1,20,000 TPA of OHT and a co-generation plant with a capacity to generate 20 MW of power. Around 40% capacity of the Bhuj plant will be for manufacturing radial tyres. As radial tyres yield higher margins, the higher share of radial tyres at the new plant could boost operating margins. The co-generation plant would attract an investment of Rs.100 crore, which forms a part of the overall capex. The new plant is expected to go on stream in Q2FY14 and Q3FY14 and would manufacture all variety of tyres. BIL has already incurred Rs.400 crore till December 2011 on the Bhuj plant, while it intends to invest the balance over FY12, FY13 and FY14 respectively. A sum of $175 million has already been drawn by way of external commercial borrowing (ECB) while another $100 million is being tied up by way of ECB. Another Rs.500 crore will be from internal accruals. In addition, another 45,000 TPA of achievable production could get added in FY15. The global market size for tractor radials is estimated at US $800 million (about 2 million tyres per annum). The European market size for radial tyres is estimated at around US $300 million. About 30% of tractor tyres sold in Europe are radials and over 75% of tractor tyres sold in Western Europe are radials. The global OHT tyres business is estimated at US $7.75 billion (10% of the global tire market) and is growing at 3-5% per year. The industrial & earthmover tyres segments are estimated at US $4 billion and agricultural & construction segments at US $3.75bn. Some of the global players are likely to exit their OHT operations gradually due to low volumes and higher costs, which will leave enough room from BIL to enhance its footprint in the global market. The real growth is expected in 2013 on strong global recovery and demand of OTC tyres. Based on the current going, BIL is all set to post a net profit of Rs.260 crore in FY12, which would fetch an EPS of above Rs.27. BIL has a sound distribution policy. Investors can also expect a liberal bonus in the current year. The last bonus was in 2005 in 1:2 ratio. At the CMP of Rs.272, the share is trading at a forward P/E of just 8.8 on estimated EPS of Rs.27 for FY12. A reasonable P/E of 12 will take its share price to Rs.324 in the medium-to-long-term. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.282/129.
KCP Ltd.: Underpriced
******
The shares of KCP Ltd. (Code: 590066) (Rs.34) are recommended for steady appreciation for its improving results and strong fundamentals. Strengthened by the availability of sufficient internal financial resources and ability to leverage debt for a healthy debt-equity ratio, KCP has embarked on the path of growth to ensure a robust increase in its top and bottom lines in the next few years. KCP is a diversified business group with interests in heavy engineering, sugar, cement, hydel power, wind power, information technology and biotechnology. Its cement division has a state-of-the-art cement manufacturing plant at Macherla in Andhra Pradesh. After the demerger of the sugar businesses in 1996, the company with its rich experience in the sugar industry and in the field of machinery manufacturing for that industry set up a subsidiary, KCP Vietnam Industries in Vietnam. This venture has expanded its crushing capacities since its inception and has been performing extremely well in the recent past and has become debt free except for working capital loans. During FY11, KCPs greenfield cement plant with a capacity of 1.52 MTPA at Mukthyala was commissioned marking its entry as a long-term player in the industry. KCP has now entered into a phase of becoming a large player in the cement industry with a combined production capacity of 2.18 million tonne and has taken all steps to enlarge its marketing operations. KCP has proposed a Rs.164 crore 36 MW coal-based power plant, which will make available quality power at lower cost. The basic input for the proposed project, namely coal is to be procured under the Coal Linkage System for which necessary applications to the relevant authorities have been made and approvals awaited. From a present study of power requirements for the two cement units, it is expected that a major portion of the total generation of power will be consumed on a captive basis, with the balance to be sold to the State Grid or to private consumers through Power Trading companies. The generation of power at this proposed facility will ensure continuous supply of quality power to the cement units, which will maintain the quality of the final product in addition to considerable savings in its cost of production. The engineering unit has completed the modernisation and debottlenecking of operations in the initial phase of its modernization-cum-expansion proposals at a cost of Rs.16 crore funded from internal generations. The second phase of the proposed scheme, namely, the expansion of the Foundry estimated to cost about Rs.60 crore and scheduled to be implemented in 2010-11 was rescheduled to be taken up in the second half of FY12. Presently, KCP has an association with Fives group of France in the sugar technology sector under the name of Fives Cail KCP Ltd. and has been doing well with generous technical support from its partner.
16
KCPs infrastructure in its different manufacturing units established over the years has also richly contributed to a thriving ancillary segment boosting economic activity in the area and improving the quality of life of the residents and their families. During FY11, consolidated sales fell 15% to Rs.671 crore with a decline in net profit by 13% to Rs.78.7 crore. This gave an EPS of Rs.6.1. During Q3FY12, net profit on a standalone basis has jumped 94% to Rs.11.5 crore on 111% higher sales of Rs.160 crore. During 9MFY12, the standalone net profit has zoomed 166% to Rs.53 crore and fetched standalone nine monthly EPS of Rs.4.1. KCPs equity capital is Rs.12.9 crore. With reserves of Rs.416.8 crore, the book value of its share works out to Rs.33.3. The value of its gross block is Rs.784 crore whereas the debt:equity ratio is 0.84:1. The promoters hold 46.4% in the equity capital. Institutional holding is 8.4%, PCBs hold 2.6% and with NRI holding of 1.8% leaves 40.8% with the investing public. During FY11, KCP Vietnam Industries, a subsidiary expanded its sugar capacity by 1000 TCD at Dong Xuan factory taking the total crushing capacity to 6000 TCD. Another significant area that KCP has ventured into is the Hotel industry with a 130 room four star project in a strategic location in Hyderabad. For its hotel project which is under construction at Somajiguda in Hyderabad, it has entered into agreements with AAPC India Hotel Management, Gurgaon for provision of technical services and for the management of the proposed hotel for a period of fifteen years. The proposed Hotel at Hyderabad is expected to be operated by AAPC India Hotel Management under the MERCURE brand, which is globally categorised as a four star Business Hotel. This Hotel being set up at an estimated cost of about Rs.64 crore is funded with a mix of term loan of Rs.45 crore and Rs.19 crore from internal generations is expected to be commissioned in the middle of 2013. Sugar as a cyclical industry faces wide fluctuations in the availability of sugarcane and the recovery of sugar on account of climatic conditions and marked by wide movement in the demand for the product, the selling price etc. The international market for sugar was generally stable and the company was able to realise better average prices and achieve higher profits despite a drop in the cane handled and the rate of recovery. Sugar, in general, has been witnessing a steady growth in production and demand globally, with a perceptible increase in per
17
capita consumption. Industrial demand has also been strong and the overview for the industry is very positive. The market for the company's products in Vietnam has also been steady and it has positioned itself as one of the strong players in the country. With the sugar industry in a mode of consolidation of capacities and implementation of projects for integral products, it is expected that the Joint Venture Company would improve its performance in the coming year. Overall, the financial position of KCP is sound. Following prudent financial management of working capital, the company's consolidated cash resources have been retained at a healthy level of Rs.81.6 crore mostly parked in fixed deposits providing sufficient comfort for on-going and other projects in the pipeline. The utilization of working capital limits with Banks has also been minimal. Based on the current going, KCP is expected to post consolidated net profit of Rs.130 crore, which would give an EPS of Rs.10.1 for FY12. At the current market price of Rs.34, the share is trade at a P/E of just 3.3. A conservative P/E multiple of even 5 will take the share price to Rs.51 and fetch a decent gain of over 50%.
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
Jagsonpal Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

BSE Code: 507789 NSE Symbol: JAGSNPHARM Last Close: Rs. 13.41
Jagsonpal is among Indias premier pharmaceutical companies. The firm recorded sales revenues of $37 million in 2011 and has substantial research and development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution facilities. An impeccable track record of growth and profitability spanning over 4 decades, makes Jagsonpal an ideal company to partner with. Founded in 1964, the company specializes in developing and manufacturing bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations and is ranked 68th in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. The industry comprises of over 28,000 manufacturing units. The firms objective is to increase market share and emerge as a dominant player. It has an expanding international portfolio of affiliates, joint ventures and representative offices across the globe making it a truly international operation. The firm is represented by 2,500 agents worldwide and has offices in 3 continents. The companys operations span Russia, Brazil, USA, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Cameroon, Thailand, Argentina, Germany, Switzerland, Korea, Egypt and Vietnam making Jagsonpal's reach truly global. It has an equity base of Rs.13.10 crore that is supported by reserves of around Rs.66.15 crore leading to a book value of Rs.30.20 per share. The promoters hold 65.79%, non-promoter corporate bodies hold 3.88%, foreign investors hold 4.03% while the investing public holds 26.30% stake in the company. For Q3FY12, it posted net sales of Rs.46.60 crore with net profit of Rs.2.32 crore against net sales of Rs.42.09 crore with net profit of Rs.0.78 crore in Q3FY11. For the first nine months of FY12, it recorded net sales of Rs.135.06 crore with net profit of Rs.6.51 crore against net sales of Rs.129.09 crore with net profit of Rs.6.79 crore in the previous corresponding period. The Q3FY12 EPS is Rs.0.89 while the first nine monthly EPS is Rs.2.50. At the current level, the stock is available at a P/E multiple of just 4. It has paid dividend given below: FY11:10%, FY09:5%. In last four years company has shown performance as under. Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS Fundamentally, this stock is highly undervalued. Hence interested 2007-08 150.09 3.08 1.17 buying may emerge in this counter in coming days. Technically, the 2008-09 136.20 6.17 2.36 worst is over for this stock. Investors can buy this stock with stop 2009-10 139.59 9.15 3.49 loss of Rs.12. On the upper side, the stock will zoom to Rs.14 level. 2010-11 160.95 7.18 2.74 A close above will take it to Rs.16.50 to Rs.18 levels in the medium 2011-12 (9M) 135.06 6.51 2.50 term.
MONEY FOLIO
Ind-Swift Labs gets USFDA approval for 5 APIs

Ind-Swift Laboratories Limited has got the USFDA approval for its five Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) manufactured at its Derabassi manufacturing facility. With this approval the company has entered in the league of big pharma majors having multi product approval for its facilities. Its Derabassi manufacturing facility is one of the largest API manufacturing facilities in northern India. The products for which company has got the approval are: Naratriptan Hydrochloride (Anti-migraine), Ropinirole Hydrochloride (AntiParkinson's disease), Donepezil Hydrochloride (Anti-Alzheimer's disease), Acamprosate Calcium (Anti-alcohol dependence), and Clarithromycin (Macrolide Antibiotic).
The worldwide market for these products is US$ 5 billion. The companys Derabassi facility is already accredited by key accreditation agencies like TGA, MHRA, COS, KFDA and PMDA. With this approval the company will be able to sell these additional products to US market.
Star Union Dai-Ichi Life Insurance posts 36.3% premium growth

Star Union Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (SUD Life), a Joint Venture of Bank of India, Union Bank of India, and Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. Ltd., Japan, has achieved Rs.1271.95 crore of Totoal Premium in 2011-12. Achieving an impressive growth rate of 36.3% in Total Premium and 27% in New Business Premium for the financial year concluded on 31 March 2012.
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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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