Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera Mathematics SL Internal Assessment

Type II Task Population trends in China Aim: In this task, you will investigate different functions that best model the population of China from 1950 to 1995. The following table shows the population of China from 1950 to 19951. Year Population (millions) 1950 554.8 1955 609.0 1960 657.5 1965 729.2 1970 830.7 1975 927.8 1980 998.9 1985 1070.0 1990 1155.3 1995 1220.5

Define all relevant variables and parameters clearly. Use technology to plot the data points from the above table on a graph. Students should define as independent variable the elapsed time , in years, since 1950, and as dependent variable the population , in millions of habitants. The definition of parameters will be provided when the student propose a mathematical model. Graph 1 shows the scatter diagram of the data points:
Graph 1. Population in China from 1950 to 1995

1400 1200 Population (millions of habitants) 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Population in China from 1950 to 1995

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Data from the Land use change and agriculture, published by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269

Comment on any apparent trends shown in the graph. What type of functions could model the behavior of the graph? Explain your choices. After the scatter diagram, the students should explain the behavior or graphical pattern observed in the diagram. Some of the functions that could model the behavior of the graph are a linear function, a cubic function or an exponential function, nevertheless, it is accepted any function proposed by the student if it is accompanied with a reasonable justification. Analytically develop one model function that fits the data points on your graph. Although the answers of this section may vary, it is offered as orientation the methodology suggested to obtain a polynomial fit curve of third degree and an exponential. Cubic function o To obtain a polynomial fit curve of third degree, it is required to work out with four points of the graph. The points that were chosen to construct the model are ( ) ( ) ( ) and ( ). o The general model of a polynomial fit curve of third degree is , where and are the parameters of the model. By substituting in this model the four points, we obtain a system of 4 unknowns, which may be solved using matrices. The equations are:

The system is solved by applying matrix algebra: the matrix of the elements of the right side:

, where

is the coefficient matrix and

The mathematical model is, thus, ( )

Exponential function o o To obtain an exponential fit curve, it is required to use two points of the graph. The chosen data ) and ( ). points to construct the mathematical model were ( The general model of an exponential fit curve is , where and are the parameters of the model. The equations are the followings:

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269

The system is solved by dividing one equation over the other to obtain the value of substituting its value in any of the equations to obtain the value of :

, and

( o The mathematical model will be, thus, ( ) (

) )

On a new set of axes, plot your model and the original data. Comment on how well your model fits the original data. Revise your model if necessary.
Graph 2. Anallytical mathamatical model for the population in China from 1950 to 1995

1400 1200 Population (millions of habitants) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0

Modelling for the population in China

5 Poblacin

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Time (years) Poly. (Modelo cbico)

Expon. (Modelo exponencial)

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269

Graph 2 shows the original data, the cubic model (red line) and the exponential model (green line) provided analytically. As can be seen, both models fits well to the population of China, even though, it is evident that the cubic model pass through a more quantity of points and, when touching a point, it seems to be very close. In contrast, the exponential model did not fit totally to the points, especially in 1950, 1970 and 1975. Probably on this part of the task, students want to use their knowledge about regression to analyze the model and comparing it with the model provided by the GDC, and they want to change a parameter of their model. A researcher suggest that the population, , at time , can be modeled by ( ) Use technology to estimate and interpret estimates. and . Construct the researchers model using your

In this part of the task, it is expected that students use their GDC to find the value of the parameters and . Using the logistic regression of the Graphic Display Calculator Texas Instruments 84 SE, we find:
Figure 1. Estimation of the parameters using GDC

Therefore, the researchers model may be written as: ( ) The behavior exhibited by the population, suggested by the researcher, is representative of the logistic growth because the growth is restricted by the existing resources. After a phase of quickly growth, the population tents to approximate to a constant level known as transport capacity of the environment. This occurs because when , , and therefore, ( )

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269

Moreover, the transport capacity is . Respecting to the parameter, it represents the expected percentage of growth for the population, and may be calculated as following:

Where is the transport capacity of the model and the initial population. Finally, the is used to denote the instant rate of population growth, and relates the favorable conditions existing to develop a population growth, such as births and immigration, and the against conditions, such as mortality, space, energy, etc. Although it is not expected that students analyze in a detailed way each of the parameters, they should explore what is the effect of each of the parameters in the population growth, maybe changing the parameters of the model and commenting what happens when increases or decreases. On a new set of axes, plot the researchers model and the original data. Comment on how well this model fits the original data. Graph 3 shows the original data points and the researchers model.
Graph 3. Logistic model suggested by the researcher

Researcher's model
1400 1200 Population (millions of habitants) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Time (years) Poblacin

Modelo del investigador

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269

The data points appears to fit well on the original data, even though, the population between 1960 and 1964 is underestimated, while between 1970 and 1975 it is overrated. The model touches some of the points. Discuss the implications of each of these models in terms of population growth for China in the future. If an exponential model is used, one of the implications is that the population in China would increase indiscriminately, which it is not really probably because the resources are limited. Besides, in an exponential model there will take into account the births but not the deaths. In this way, probably it is important to use a logistic model to consider the fact that the population will not increase at the same rate. It is important to comment that the mathematical model, natural catastrophes that may decrease the population significantly will not be considered. The cubic model fits well to the data points, even though, it have a maximum in 1995, and the curve starts decreasing intersecting the x-axis, which it is not the expected behavior of the population. Here are additional data on populations trends in China from the 2008 World Economic Outlook, published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Year Population (millions) 1983 1030.1 1992 1171.7 1997 1236.3 2000 1267.4 2003 1292.3 2005 1307.6 2008 1327.7

Comment on how well each of the models above fit the IMF data for the years 1983-2008. Graph 4 shows the data points of the population trends in China, from 1950 to 2008, with the mathematical models provided along the task. As we can see, each of the models appears to fit well for 1983-1992, even though, it is not true for the years after 1992. The exponential model continues with a constant increasing rate. The third degree model achieves a maximum at 1997, approximately, and after this year, the population starts decreasing, which after all isnt correct, because the population continues growing. It appears that the logistic model, that is, the researchers model, it is the most appropriate for this situation, inclusive considering the overrated population of the model after 2000.

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269

Graph 4. Fit of the models for the population in China from 1950 to 2008

Poblacin de China de 1950 a 2008

1800 1600 1400 Population (millions of habitants) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 Poblacin 10 15 20 25 30 Time (years) Modelo cbico Modelo exponencial Modelo logstico 35 40 45 50 55 60

Modify the model that best fits the IMF data, so that it applies to all the given data from 1950 to 2008. Comment on how well your modified model fits all the data. In this part of the task, it is expected that the student modifies some of the parameters of the chosen model. If the student choses the researchers logistic model, it is accepted that they enter the data on the GDC and uses logistic regression to change the parameter of the last model and adjusting it to the last years. The actual logistic model is given by: ( ) Entering the new data, the parameters may be modified:

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269

Therefore, the model will be: ( ) The most important change of the model should be the value of de logistic curve on the last part. , in order to move down the

Profesor Carlos Abel Eslava Carrillo Tecnolgico de Monterrey Campus Eugenio Garza Lagera School code: 002269