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Outline of Presentation
Forward looking statement Who is AuRico? Young Davidson Update Gold Industry Macro Economic Outlook Gold Price, support, volatility and replacement costs Gold vs Gold Stocks Current Playing Field Investors Perspective Miners Perspective Conclusions
Cautionary Note to US Investors Concerning Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources
This presentation uses the terms Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources. U.S. investors are advised that while such terms are recognized and required by Canadian regulations, the Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize them. Inferred Resources have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence and as to their economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an inferred resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of Inferred Resources may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. U.S. investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of Measured or Indicated Resources will ever be converted into reserves. U.S. investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an Inferred mineral Resource exists, or is economically or legally mineable.
Capital
Company BMO Nesbitt Burns Canaccord Genuity CIBC Credit Suisse Dahlman Rose Desjardins Securities
Analyst David Haughton Rahul Paul Brian Quast Anita Soni Adam P. Graf Brian Christie Ron Stewart Craig West Barry Allan Tony Lesiak Mike Parkin Trevor Turnbull Steven Green Dan Rollins
Buy Average Target Price: $14.00 Hold
Issued and Outstanding shares Options Warrants & DSUs Fully Diluted Current cash position of Market Capitalization of
Dundee Securities GMP Securities Mackie Research Macquarie Securities Merrill Lynch
Credit Facility of up to US$100M NYSE and TSX listings provide liquid shares Avg. ~3.5M shares traded daily
1. 2. 3.
Recent History
First gold pour at Young-Davidson imminent (April 2012) Increased production by 50% and revenues by 89% over 2010 Divesture of Australian Operations (Expected to close by May 1) Began mill commissioning and ore processing at Young-Davidson (March 2012) Increased 2011 reserves and resources
199% increase in Proven and Probable reserves and 350% increase in Measured and Indicated resources over 2010
Pre-production development commences at Young-Davidson (November 2011) Acquisition of Northgate Minerals and the Young-Davidson Asset (October 2011) Acquisition of Capital Gold Corporation (April 2011)
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Young-Davidson, Canada
2012 Production Gold Oz.
Kemess
2012 Cash Costs per gold oz.3 2011 Resource (000s oz Au)4
Young-Davidson
El Chanate, Mexico
2012 Production Gold Oz. 2012 Cash Costs per gold oz.3 2011 Resource (000s oz Au)4 Grade (Au g/t)5 2011 Inferred Resource Grade (Au g/t)1,5 78-88k $450-480 1,323 0.64 8 0.46
El Chanate Ocampo
Guadalupe y Calvo Orion
El Cubo
El Cubo, Mexico
2012 Production Gold eq. oz.1 2012 Cash Costs per gold eq. 2011 Resource (000s oz Grade (Aue g/t)1,5 oz.1,2 47-57k $750-$780 1,077 3.48 1,031 4.46
Aue)1,4
2011 3,831 2,384 1,284 657 8,157 2011 $1,250 $23.00 54.35 2010 $1,025 $16.60 61.75
Young-Davidson Ocampo El Chanate El Cubo Total AuRico North America Reserve Assumptions Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/oz) Gold Equivalency Ratio
217%, 5.9M gold eq. ounce increase in reserves through acquisition and exploration programs Average reserve grade increase of 7% Drilling discovery cost of <$8.00 per gold eq. ounce for key assets Increased reserve ounces per 1,000 shares from 19.1 to 28.9 758%, 6.36M gold eq. ounce increase in Measured & Indicated 9%, 5.1M gold eq. ounce increase in Inferred
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Ocampo
2.1
(1) Gold equivalent ounces include silver ounces produced and sold converted to a gold equivalent based on a ratio of 55:1. (2) Production and Cash costs for the Ocampo mine, the El Cubo mine and on a consolidated basis are calculated on a per gold equivalent ounce basis. Cash costs for the El Chanate mine are calculated on a per gold ounce basis, using by-product revenues as a cost credit.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*Excludes exploration
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Historic Production from underground gold mines in Timmins and Kirkland Lake (~108 M Oz.) Five mines with greater than 5 million ounces production, Young-Davidson is likely to be the sixth
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M Oz.
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Macassa
Hollinger
Young-Davidson
Preston
Wright Hargreaves
Upper Canada
Hisotrical Production
YD P&P
Teck Hughes
Kerr Addison
YD M&I
Hoyle Pond
YD Inferred
Paymaster
Lakeshore
Coniarium
Dome
Pamour
Aunor
Hallnor
Sylvanite
McIntyre
Period 1934 to 1957 1934 to 1954 1981 to 1982 Total YD MCM MCM
Mine
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Additions Reductions
2,500
2,000
YD West converted to reserves, some indicated re-classified as inferred Paste backfill allows for conversion of mining methods Conversion to long-hole mining - transverse & longitudinal stoping Mining recoveries improvement from ~72% to 92% Dilution improves from 15% to <10% 11
YD West Zone
Significant increase in resources (Sept 2011) Addition of + 1 million ounces to Proven and Probable reserves (Dec 31, 2011)
Thickest resource on property (30 m avg); potential lowest cost per ounce mining zone
Unexplored
Open at depth
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Northgate Shaft
Ore Bins
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Northgate Headframe
Macro-Economic Snapshot
2012 A year of modest global growth and recovery
Key macro-economic themes: 2012 average global growth of 3.5% 2013 average global growth of 4.2% 2012 average global inflation of 3.7% Moderate US growth
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 Forecast 12 Forecast QoQ% ann. rate YoY%
Continued moderate US growth Only a mild recession in Europe Slower growth in China (~8% in 12 and 13) Soft landing in China
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9 6 3
1Q11
1Q12 (E)
1Q12 (E)
1985-2010 average growth rate @ 3.5% 2003-07 average growth rate @ 4.8%
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US dollar and Euro losing reserve currency status Ongoing European debt crisis Central Banks diversifying away from USD into gold
1054 874
Gold holdings (Tonnes)
USD/CAD USD/EUR 2007 Avg Current 1.07 0.73 1.20 0.50 7.80 117.76 1.00 0.75 Chg (7.1% ) 2.8%
600 358
558
457
China 2008
India
Russia Current
USD/JPY
80.20 (31.9% )
158%
20 10 0 Feb-12
Greece
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Portugal
Spain
C1 cash cost represents the costs for mining, processing and handling ore and mined products; as well as administration and accounting overhead. It does not include capital costs for exploration, mine development or processing mill capital works. It includes net proceeds from by-product credits. It does not include the cost of royalties. 2012E real GDP growth forecasts as of April 2011 & January 2012 for Italy and Spain; forecasts as of April & September 2011 for Greece and Portugal (IMF World Economic Outlook). Represents Brook Hunt average C1 cash costs for 2006 & 2011E.
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September 2011
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Counsel. Computed using 63-day rolling volatilities on each of the assets.
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Equities failing to keep pace with the gold price as investors focus on preservation of capital
Commentary: Dislocation between the valuation of gold equities and gold price performance Declining equity valuation multiples despite gold price strength
$2,500
30.0x
$2,000
Gold price (US$/oz)
25.0x
Declining gold equity multiples amidst gold price strength
20.0x
$1,500
15.0x
$1,000
10.0x
$500
5.0x
Feb-07
Source: Factset.
Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12
(1) Next Twelve Months (NTM) EBITDA represents monthly time-weighted annual EBITDA estimates. Senior producers: Barrick, Newmont, Kinross, Newcrest, Goldcorp, AngloGold, Yamana. Intermediate producers: Gold Fields, Zijin, Eldorado, Randgold, Buenaventura, AEM, IAMGOLD, Harmony, Centerra, New Gold, Osisko, Alacer, African Barrick, Allied Nevada, Semafo, Alamos, European Goldfields, Perseus, Kirkland Lake, B2Gold, Medusa, Dundee Precious, High River, Aurizon. Junior producers / developers: Detour, Nevsun, Kingsgate, Colossus, Guyana, Rainy River, Argonaut, Archipelago, Jaguar, Torex, Lake Shore, Romarco, Golden Star, Chesapeake, Great Basin, Gryphon, ITH, Ampella, Timmins, Yukon-Nevada, Cluff, Kula, Victoria. Royalties: Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold.
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Franco-NV Royal Gold 0.90 0.74 0.32 0.56 NA 0.90 0.54 0.58 0.00 0.04
$40
$30
$20
$10
Gold Fields Randgold Buenaventura (2) Eldorado IAMGOLD AEM Polymetal Harmony New Gold Centerra Osisko Allied NV Af. Barrick Detour Alacer AuRico Alamos (2) Euro. Gfds Gabriel Semafo Centamin B2Gold Minefinders Dundee Medusa Kirkland Lake Aurizon Barrick Goldcorp Newmont Newcrest AngloGold Yamana Kinross Kingsgate Torex Independ' ce Argonaut Nevsun Colossus Guyana Lake Shore Rainy River Romarco Archipelago Jaguar Golden Star ITH Gryphon Great Basin Chesapeake Timmins Allied Gold Yukon-NV Ampella Cluff Victoria Kula Franco-NV Royal Gold
The lack of quality gold discoveries of scale will likely lead to gold seniors looking to the intermediate sector to create a growth profile
Source: Note: (1) (2) FactSet. R2 explains how much percentage wise a stocks movement is determined by movements in the gold price. Based on share prices of primary listings. Not pro-forma for European Goldfields transaction.
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Source: Note:
Commentary:
EV / FY2012E EBITDA
Senior
Newmont Kinross 7.6x 7.3x 7.2x 5.5x 17.6x 15.1x 14.3x 13.5x 12.9x 12.5x 12.1x 10.4x 9.3x
Intermediate
Barrick AngloGold Allied NV Medusa New Gold Randgold B2Gold Eldorado Alamos Semafo IAMGOLD
Intermediate
Barrick Newmont Kinross AngloGold 6.4x 6.3x 5.8x 4.6x 13.6x 12.9x 11.8x 10.9x 10.4x 9.6x 8.9x 8.7x 8.0x 7.8x 7.4x 7.3x 7.0x 6.9x 6.6x Medusa Allied NV New Gold Randgold Buenaventura B2Gold Eldorado Alamos Dundee Kirkland Semafo Alacer AEM Osisko Centerra
FactSet. I/B/E/S estimates based on fiscal year end. *Tables provided by Credit Suisse.
Alacer AEM 9.2x 9.1x Avg: 9.7x 8.6x 8.5x 8.3x 8.1x 7.5x 7.3x 6.9x 6.1x 5.3x 4.9x 4.8x 15.5x 12.5x 10.4x 6.2x Kingsgate Nevsun Great Basin Allied Gold Golden Star Timmins S. Stand. 5.8x 5.3x 4.7x 4.5x 4.3x 4.2x 10.7x Avg: 7.3x
Junior
Avg: 7.9x
Dundee Buenaventura Centerra Osisko Harmony Aurizon Kirkland AuRico Af. Barrick Centamin Gold Fields Argonaut Lake Shore Cluff Jaguar
Harmony IAMGOLD AuRico Centamin Aurizon Af. Barrick Gold Fields Lake Shore Argonaut Jaguar Kingsgate Cluff Yukon-NV Great Basin Golden Star Timmins Allied Gold Nevsun
Silver
6.2x 5.9x 5.2x 4.6x 4.4x 4.1x 3.6x 14.0x 10.4x 5.8x
Seniors are not being afforded premium multiples relative to intermediates Royalties trade at a premium
Avg: 5.6x
Avg: 5.8x
Avg: 8.1x
Avg: 20.2x
Avg: 15.0x
Royalties
16.9x 13.2x
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Companies need to demonstrate a reason to hold equities over physical gold to regain premium. A desire to hold physical gold or ETF has led to compressed multiples With reduced multiples, investors preference for a dividend over reinvesting cash In the past, preference to reinvest at a premium to NAV Nominal dividends are attractive for investors
Majority of recent M&A transactions in the gold sector have not been well received Highlights challenge for value creation in the sector Growth through M&A alone is not attractive to investors Organic growth at competitive cash costs is key focus P/CF becoming a more relevant valuation metric (P/NAV remains predominant) i.e. shift to backward looking or near term future rather than Life of Mine valuations
Large established producers with a disciplined M&A track-record and dividends Physical bullion and ETFs
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No longer willing to accept Companies forecasts on Capital Cost Estimates Prove it before you brag about it
Equity issues may face buyer resistance compared to a few months ago
Enhanced regulatory scrutiny of Technical Reports, in some cases technical issues remain unresolved
Perhaps the biggest complaint is the Over Promise and Under Deliver
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