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Recap of Last Lecture Probability: Precise representation of uncertainty. Probability Theory: Optimal updating of knowledge bared on new information. Bayesian Inference Conditional Probability ( | ) Product Rule ( Chain Rule ( ) ) ( | ) ( ) ( ) ( | ) ( | ( | x, y independent iff ( ) ( ) ( ) ) ) ( ( ) )
Probabilistic Models
Models describe how (a portion of) the world works. Models are always simplifications May not account for every variable May not account for all interactions between variables What do we do with probabilistic models? We (or the agents) need to reason about the unknown variables, given evidence. Example: a) Explanation (diagnostic reasoning) b) Prediction (causal reasoning) c) Value of information
Probabilistic Reasoning
Suppose we go to my house and see that the door is open. Whats the cause? Is it a burglar? Should we go in? Call the police? Then again, it could be just be my wife. Maybe she came home early. How should we represent these relationships?
wife
burglar
open door
Types of Probabilistic Relationships
1. Independent
A B
( | ) ( | )
( ) ( )
2. Direct Cause
A B
( | )
3. Indirect Cause
A B C
( |
http://www.aispace.org/bayes/index.shtml
Inference
Inference: Calculating some useful quantity from a joint probability distribution. Examples: o Posterior Probability ( | ) Belief Network o Most likely explanation ( | ) Decision Network
Variable Elimination
Inference by enumeration is slow o You join up the whole joint distribution before you sum out the hidden variable. Idea: Inference joining and marginalizing! Variable Elimination
Example: Traffic Domain Random Variables R: rainy T: traffic L: late for class
L R T
Given P(R)
P (T|R) T
P (L|T)
0.3 0.1
0.7 0.9
R, T (0.1)
(0.9)
(b)
( |
) ( | ) ( )
Operation 2: Eliminate
Example: P (T), P (L) (a) P (T) ( ) ( )
(b) (
P (L) ) ( )
Operation 3: Evidence
Example: Compute P (L|+r) From ( Find ( ) )
Normalize
( |
Another Example
Wife Burglar
Car in garage
Opened door
Damaged door
Given: ( ) ( ) ( | ) ( | )
( |
What is the probability that the door is open, it is my wife and not a burglar, we see the car in the garage, and the door is not damaged? ( )
One Solution!
We can just repeatedly apply the rule relating joint and conditional probabilities. ( ( | ( | ( | ) ) ( ) ) ( ( | ( | ) ( | ) ( | ) ) )
) ( ) ( |
) ( | ) ( ) ( )
( |
) ( | ) ( | ) ( ) ( )
Real-World BN Applications
Microsofts competitive advantage lies in its expertise in Bayesian Networks o Bill Gates quoted in LA Times, 1996. MS Answer Wizards, (printer) troubleshooters Medical Diagnosis Genetic pedigree analysis Speech recognition (HMM) Gene sequence/expression analysis Turbocodes (channel coding)