JRC Technical Note - Working Doc For STECF EWG-12-02 JRC69877

Testing the robustness of HCRs applied to
Baltic pelagic stocks

Working Document in support to the STECF Expert Working Group 12-02 Management Plans - part 1
E. Jardim, I. Mosqueira, C. Millar & C. Osio
EUR 25275 EN - 2012
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JRC 69877
EUR 25275 EN
ISBN 978-92-79-23679-2
ISSN 1831-9424
doi :10.2788/19469
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2012
European Union, 2012
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged
Testing the robustness of HCRs applied to Baltic pelagic stocks

Ernesto Jardim*(JRC)
Iago Mosqueira (JRC)
Colin Millar (JRC)
Chato Osio (JRC)
March 20, 2012
Abstract
This work replies to a request from STECF EWG 11 15 to JRC to provide tests on the robustness of
the target fishing mortality (Ftrgt ) and biomass trigger (Btrg ) used on the harvest control rule (HCR)
of the Baltic pelagic stocks. The main conclusion is that the successful candidates must assure Btrg
is above the S/R break point and an exploitation level that is consistent with Btrg considering the
stock dynamics.
* ernesto.jardim@jrc.ec.europa.eu
Introduction
The STECF EWG 11 15 required JRC to provide tests on the robustness of the target fishing mortality
(Ftrgt ) and biomass trigger (Btrg ) used on the harvest control rule (HCR) of the Baltic pelagic stocks.
Such task should be carried out intersessionally and the results presented to the next STECF EWG
dealing with the multispecies multiannual plan for the Baltic.
The objective of this work was to test with simulations the robustness of the reference points for use in
the HCR of the pelagic stocks in the Baltic, with regards to their hability to keep the stock above the
biomass trigger and exploited at the foreseen level of fishing mortality.
The work was carried out with open source software, using the R environment (http://r-project.org) and
FLR packages (http://flr-project.org) for data analysis, LaTeX (http://ctan.org) for report drafting and
github for code management. The simulations are available on a request basis due to the large volume of
data ( 24GB). The code is available on a github repository (http://github.com/ejardim/pelagicBRPtests).
> sessionInfo()
R version 2.14.2 (2012-02-29)
Platform: x86_64-pc-linux-gnu (64-bit)
locale:
[1] LC_CTYPE=en_US.UTF-8
[3] LC_TIME=en_US.UTF-8
[5] LC_MONETARY=en_US.UTF-8
[7] LC_PAPER=C
[9] LC_ADDRESS=C
[11] LC_MEASUREMENT=en_US.UTF-8
attached base packages:
[1] splines
grid
stats
[8] methods
base
LC_NUMERIC=C
LC_COLLATE=en_US.UTF-8
LC_MESSAGES=en_US.UTF-8
LC_NAME=C
LC_TELEPHONE=C
LC_IDENTIFICATION=C
graphics
grDevices utils
other attached packages:

[1] Hmisc_3.9-0
survival_2.36-12 FLEDA_2.4
[5] FLCore_2.5.0
lattice_0.20-0
datasets
xtable_1.6-0
loaded via a namespace (and not attached):

[1] cluster_1.14.1 stats4_2.14.2 tools_2.14.2
Material
This work used the assessments performed by HAWG1 (2011) and WGBFAS2 (2011) for sprat, Bothnian
Sea herring, Gulf of Riga herring, Central Baltic herring and Western Baltic spring spawning herring.
The assessment results were taken as a starting point.
The stock-recruitment (S/R) model used followed the decisions made by WKMAMPEL3 (2009) about
using a segmented regression with pre specified break point values. Recruitment above the break point
was taken as the geometric mean over the time series.
Figures 1 to 5 present the assessment results and the S/R models used for each species.
1 Report of the Herring Assessment Working Group for the area South of 62 deg N. 16-24 March 2011, ICES Headquarters,
Copenhagen. ICES CM 2011/ACOM:06
2 Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group. 12-19 April 2011, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen. ICES
CM 2011/ACOM:10
3 Report of the Workshop on Multi-annual management of Pelagic Fish Stocks in the Baltic. 23-27 February 2009, ICES
Headquarters, Copenhagen. ICES CM 2009/ACOM:38
SSB
1990
2000
2010
1980
catch
landings
1990
2000
2010
harvest
0.4
catch
400
500
1980
500
50000100000
1000
1500
200000
recruits
0.1
100
0.2
200
0.3
300
1980
1990
2000
2010
1980
1990
2000
100000
brkpnt=400
rec
250000
Segmented regression
500
1000
ssb
Figure 1: Baltic sprat
1500
2000
2010
recruits
SSB
3e+05
5e+05
15000000
1e+05
5000000
1980
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
harvest
40000
0.15
60000
20000
0.10
1980
1990
2000
2010
1980
1990
2.0e+07
1.0e+07
0.0e+00
rec
2010
0.20
catch
landings
catch
1980
brkpnt=250000
0e+00
2e+05
4e+05
ssb
Figure 2: Bothnian Sea Herring
6e+05
2000
2010
SSB
500000
1.0e+07
2.0e+07
1000000
3.0e+07
1500000
recruits
1980
1990
2000
2010
1980
1990
catch
landings
0.4
0.2
0.3
200000
100000
1980
1990
2000
2010
1980
1990
2000
4e+07
2e+07
0e+00
rec
2010
harvest
300000
catch
2000
brkpnt=8e+05
0
500000
1000000
1500000
ssb
Figure 3: Central Baltic Herring
2000000
2010
6e+06
4e+06
2e+06
1980
1990
2000
2010
1980
1990
2000
harvest
0.6
35000
0.3
15000
0.4
25000
0.5
1980
1990
2000
2010
1980
1990
2000
8e+06
4e+06
0e+00
rec
2010
0.7
catch
landings
catch
SSB
40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
recruits
brkpnt=60000
0
20000 40000 60000 80000

ssb
Figure 4: Gulf of Riga Herring
120000
2010
SSB
1995
2000
2005
1995
2000
2005
2010
harvest
0.7
catch
landings
catch
2010
0.3
50000
0.4
100000
0.5
0.6
150000
200000
100000
200000
2e+063e+064e+065e+066e+06
300000
recruits
1995
2000
2005
2010
1995
2000
2005
2010
8e+06
4e+06
0e+00
rec
brkpnt=128697
0e+00
1e+05
2e+05
3e+05
ssb
Figure 5: Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring
4e+05
3
3.1
Methods
Stock Simulation
Stocks were simulated by adding additional variation to estimates of recruitment and F at age from the
original stock assessment. The simulations of recruitment and F (and the current assumption for M)
were used to project N at age using the standard equation Na+1,y+1 = Nay eFay May . Recruitment in
year y was simulated using a log-normal distribution where the median was the estimate of recruitment
for that year and the variance on the log scale was CV2 . F at age in year y was simulated using a
.y )
multivariate log-normal distribution where the median was the estimate of F at age for that year (F
2
and the covariance on the log scale given by CV Cor(F.y ), so that correlation across ages reflects that
in the original estimate of F.
3.2
HCR
The harvest control rule (HCR) applied is described below. Considering the objective of the work, only
one HCR was tested with distinct parameters.
FY +1 = Ftarget
if
SSBY +1 > Btrigger
1
FY +1 = Ftarget SSBY +1 Btrigger
if
SSBY +1 < Btrigger
(1)
Btrg
fishing mortality
Ftrgt
spawning stock biomass

Figure 6: HCR
3.3
Scenarios
Scenarios were defined based on distinct values of Btrigger , Ftarget , implementation error and variability
on [F ] and [N ]. The scenarios are described below for each stock.
BS
CB
GoR
WBSS
stock
sprat
herring
herring
herring
herring
Ftarget
0.3, 0.4
0.14, 0.16,
0.15, 0.20,
0.20, 0.25,
0.20, 0.25,
0.21
0.25
0.30,
0.30,
Table 1: Simulation scenarios

Btrigger (ton)
0, 400, 600, 800
0, 100, 200, 300, 400
0, 500, 700, 900, 1100, 1300
0.35, 0.40 0, 50, 60, 70, 80
0.35, 0.40 0, 100, 120, 140, 160, 180, 200
F and N
0.1, 0.2,
0.1, 0.2,
0.1, 0.2,
0.1, 0.2,
0.1, 0.2,
CV
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
Imp.Error
1.05, 1.1, 1.2
1.05, 1.1, 1.2
1.05, 1.1, 1.2
1.05, 1.1, 1.2
1.05, 1.1, 1.2
The same simulations were run using other S/R relationships, Ricker and Beverton and Holt. A preliminary analysis showed the results to be very similar to the Segmented regression S/R. The major
conclusion is that the most important factors are the HCR parameters.
Results
Results are presented in two forms, a risk analysis plot and a table with detailed metrics. Both are
computed in 2029, when the stocks are expected to reach equilibrium. The figures show a matrix of
plots with Btrg in the x axis, Ftrgt in the y axis, CV in rows and implementation error in columns.
The triangles size represent P [SSB2029 < Btrg ], where large triangles are 1 and small triangles 0. The
triangles pointing up represent P [F2029 > Ftrgt ] > 0.5 while triangles pointing down the opposite. The
red colour represents P [SSB2029 < Bloss ] > 0.05 while black is the opposite. In summary, the best option
is a small, black triangle pointing down, while the worst is a large, red triangle pointing up.
4.1
Inconsistencies between HCR and stock dynamics
The results showed that the conditions with major effect on the results were (i) the mis-match between
Ftrgt and Btrg when the exploitation level resulted in an equilibrium SSB below Btrg , and (ii) Btrg levels
below the break point of the S/R. To better illustrate these effects two examples are presented.
The effect of having a Btrg or Ftrgt that are very high in relation to the stock dynamics, can be seen in
the following example. Figure 7 shows a scenario for Sprat with Ftrgt = 0.4 and Btrg = 0, while figure 8
shows the scenario with same Ftrgt but Btrg = 800. It can be seen that Btrg pushes F down, making it,
in average, below Ftrgt , but still is not enough to get SSB above Btrg . The overall picture is that F is
below Ftrgt but also SSB is below Btrg . In fact looking at the history of the stock there are indications
that F = 0.4 is too high.
SSB
600
800
1000
4e+045e+046e+047e+048e+049e+04
recruits
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
catch
landings
2025
2030
2025
2030
harvest
0.30
0.35
100
200
0.40
300
0.45
400
0.50
catch
2020
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
Figure 7: Sprat scenario: Ftrgt = 0.4 and Btrg = 0
10
8e+04
6e+04
4e+04
2015
2020
2025
2030
catch
landings
100
200
300
400
catch
2010
2015
2020
2025
2010
2015
2030
2020
2025
2030
2025
2030
harvest
0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55
2010
SSB
600 700 800 900 1000 1100
recruits
2010
2015
2020
Figure 8: Sprat scenario: Ftrgt = 0.4 and Btrg = 800

Regarding scenarios where Btrg is below the S/R break point, consider the example below for Bothnian
Sea herring with Ftrgt = 0.21 and Btrg = 200000 (Figure 9). Its clear that such situation leads the stock
to the slope of the S/R relationship, a dangerous area that the HCR is supposed to avoid.
11
1.0e+07
SSB
1e+05
2.0e+06
3e+05
6.0e+06
5e+05
recruits
2015
2020
2025
2030
2015
2020
2025
2015
2020
2025
2030
2025
2030
harvest
0 20000
2010
2010
0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20
catch
landings
catch
60000
100000
2010
2030
2010
2015
2020
Figure 9: Bothnian Sea herring scenario: Ftrgt = 0.21 and Btrg = 100000
12
Risk plots and detailed tables
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.1
1
0.1
1.05
0.1
1.1
0.1
1.2
0.2
1
0.2
1.05
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.2
800
600
400
800
600
Btrg
4.2
400
0.3
1
0.3
1.05
0.3
1.1
0.3
1.2
800
600
400
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
Ftrgt
Figure 10: Baltic sprat risk analysis
13
Table 2: Sprat - metrics measured in 2029

scn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
Btrg
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
0.36
0.28
0.34
0.31
0.30
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.26
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.35
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.28
0.03
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.27
0.00
0.00
14
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.93
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.91
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.99
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.98
1.00
1.00
belowBloss
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
F
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.37
0.26
0.31
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.37
0.26
0.31
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.37
0.26
0.31
0.32
0.42
0.32
0.42
0.32
0.39
0.27
0.32
0.32
0.42
0.32
0.42
0.32
0.39
0.27
0.32
S
640
544
640
544
641
566
694
633
640
543
641
544
641
566
693
633
640
543
639
543
639
566
693
633
621
525
622
525
622
553
681
620
622
524
622
525
623
552
680
619
Ccum
4002
4462
4052
4475
4041
4287
3631
4022
3930
4526
4246
4488
4010
4517
3676
4123
3886
4470
4138
4269
4064
4418
4145
4054
4082
4641
4194
4595
4091
4393
3858
4028
4181
4541
4265
4646
3900
4417
3726
4063
Table 2: (continued)
scn
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
Btrg
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
0.26
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.57
0.02
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.56
0.02
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.57
0.03
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.95
0.38
0.00
15
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.26
0.98
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.43
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.44
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.44
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBloss
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
F
0.32
0.42
0.32
0.42
0.32
0.39
0.27
0.32
0.33
0.45
0.33
0.45
0.33
0.40
0.28
0.33
0.33
0.45
0.33
0.45
0.33
0.40
0.28
0.33
0.33
0.45
0.33
0.45
0.33
0.40
0.28
0.33
0.37
0.50
0.37
0.50
0.36
0.43
0.30
0.35
S
622
524
622
524
621
553
680
620
604
506
603
505
605
541
668
607
603
506
604
507
604
540
668
607
604
505
603
506
605
540
668
607
569
473
570
472
578
518
643
585
Ccum
4244
4444
4011
4584
4363
4416
3665
4400
4191
4639
4227
4619
4113
4445
3930
4094
4196
4962
4296
4590
3993
4419
3853
4174
4556
4748
4171
4428
4334
4723
3765
4626
4322
4876
4286
4873
4226
4531
3920
4266
scn
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
Btrg
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
0
0
400
400
600
600
800
800
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.39
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.92
0.37
0.00
16
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBloss
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
F
0.37
0.50
0.37
0.50
0.36
0.43
0.30
0.35
0.37
0.50
0.37
0.50
0.36
0.43
0.30
0.35
S
569
472
571
472
577
517
645
583
570
471
568
471
576
517
644
584
Ccum
4537
4654
4397
4775
4165
4621
4060
4368
4311
4681
4922
4981
4290
4707
3904
4240
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.1
1
0.1
1.05
0.1
1.1
0.1
1.2
0.2
1
0.2
1.05
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.2
0.21
4e+05
3e+05
2e+05
1e+05
4e+05
Btrg
3e+05
2e+05
1e+05
0.3
1
0.3
1.05
0.3
1.1
0.3
1.2
4e+05
3e+05
2e+05
1e+05
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
Ftrgt
Figure 11: Bothnian Sea herring risk analysis
17
Table 3: Bothnian Sea herring - metrics measured in 2029

scn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
Btrg
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
aboveFtrgt
0.32
0.13
0.36
0.30
0.14
0.38
0.31
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.13
0.37
0.33
0.15
0.34
0.31
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.26
0.12
0.36
0.28
0.12
0.35
0.28
0.08
0.00
0.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.36
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.01
0.38
1.00
1.00
18
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.12
S
239869
205648
126994
240231
205581
126891
240364
205529
152870
261478
248332
206063
286875
275331
251072
240450
205588
127073
240644
205111
127902
240668
206253
152926
261222
248123
206095
287214
274991
250461
240718
205680
126879
240508
204878
127491
240648
205397
153447
261579
Ccum
910286
936501
1004832
882624
913362
981729
920629
926852
960030
888200
893758
946726
826978
834469
876105
906569
928906
965495
903200
1020204
950521
913838
929118
943127
947766
1014257
990164
836751
887755
897210
957290
935764
1135554
822764
1036230
1010805
942141
965719
954730
935800
scn
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
Btrg
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.00
0.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
1.00
0.56
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.01
0.79
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.03
0.74
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
19
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.00
F
0.13
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.22
0.15
0.17
0.22
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.22
0.15
0.17
0.22
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.22
0.15
0.17
S
248214
206750
286805
275527
250955
227738
189802
112582
227566
189159
112118
227663
191532
145182
256877
240872
197924
282304
270782
244372
228266
190389
112572
227110
190577
112736
228412
191797
145380
256693
241044
197879
282241
270707
244354
227731
190519
111944
227603
190349
Ccum
976635
859952
832419
857994
937953
915188
987607
988163
925224
980567
982457
923040
983879
1002897
900738
899843
974607
854964
892029
894245
918416
936150
941322
930829
998232
1017905
923162
957861
986744
981061
946411
965615
895183
878899
911916
860310
933137
984532
1004192
1040587
scn
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
Btrg
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
aboveFtrgt
0.91
0.98
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.92
1.00
0.49
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.84
1.00
0.51
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
belowBtrg
0.18
0.07
0.69
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.53
0.14
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.15
0.95
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
20
belowBloss
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.47
0.00
0.00
0.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.22
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.16
0.18
0.23
0.16
0.18
0.23
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.23
0.16
0.18
0.23
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.14
S
112545
226971
191888
145568
256517
241526
198002
282410
270932
244184
214019
175236
99483
214226
174621
99274
213807
180169
138189
251978
233281
189914
277896
266418
236346
214180
174978
99815
215210
175843
99984
213968
180720
137831
251400
233305
189665
277772
266397
236587
Ccum
974519
985339
996287
1038429
903934
955723
1080090
952591
950907
1031496
909453
999468
1011282
943962
953693
1013190
913676
926459
937124
929390
944135
968353
834871
900332
945665
948168
978386
1008669
964604
971050
962744
916038
953212
937543
813756
887325
948757
886715
967007
955765
scn
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
Btrg
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
ierr
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.99
0.48
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.48
1.00
0.45
0.00
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.47
1.00
0.46
0.00
0.22
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.47
0.20
0.90
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.84
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.99
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
21
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.48
0.00
0.00
0.46
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.99
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.96
0.00
0.00
0.94
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
F
0.16
0.18
0.23
0.16
0.18
0.23
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.17
0.20
0.26
0.17
0.20
0.21
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.17
0.20
0.26
0.17
0.20
0.21
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.14
S
215217
174464
100985
213912
175459
101044
215070
179861
138303
251622
232596
189867
277940
266516
236169
186690
146541
77497
186505
147030
81548
188287
163477
126377
239328
217676
175148
270243
258070
220770
186100
146750
77503
187128
147091
81444
188513
163644
126494
238923
Ccum
917460
1006049
995292
1031596
946005
1005521
1102935
1029674
891320
810691
1046165
937590
874418
917638
869971
970043
983108
1031423
933456
1010503
973230
931560
948583
991284
898165
944039
975027
863712
939251
947740
939927
976367
999208
968011
986638
975775
911372
987318
994984
905437
scn
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.14
0.16
0.21
Btrg
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
0e + 00
0e + 00
0e + 00
1e + 05
1e + 05
1e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
2e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
3e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
4e + 05
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.98
0.46
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
belowBtrg
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.96
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
22
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.88
0.00
0.02
0.88
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.14
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.17
0.20
0.26
0.17
0.20
0.21
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.11
0.12
0.14
S
217957
174815
269719
258223
220651
186416
146125
77318
186586
147540
81774
189322
163139
126157
239861
217231
175626
269897
257880
220705
Ccum
913838
967292
849883
933240
946919
911835
945901
953438
889765
948640
982332
1146068
933293
962107
923931
969240
934660
978574
843508
914126
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.15
0.2
0.1
1
0.1
1.05
0.1
1.1
0.1
1.2
0.2
1
0.2
1.05
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.2
0.25
1300000
1100000
9e+05
7e+05
5e+05
1300000
1100000
Btrg
9e+05
7e+05
5e+05
0.3
1
0.3
1.05
0.3
1.1
0.3
1.2
1300000
1100000
9e+05
7e+05
5e+05
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.15
0.2
0.25
Ftrgt
Figure 12: Central Baltic Herring risk analysis
23
Table 4: Central Baltic herring - metrics measured in 2029

scn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
Btrg
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
aboveFtrgt
0.32
0.25
0.24
0.31
0.23
0.00
0.30
0.10
0.00
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.31
0.25
0.25
0.32
0.22
0.00
0.31
0.11
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.27
0.26
0.33
24
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
1.00
0.00
0.63
1.00
0.14
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
1.00
0.00
0.60
1.00
0.17
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.81
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.65
0.00
F
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.21
0.15
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.18
0.19
0.13
0.16
0.19
0.12
0.14
0.17
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.21
0.15
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.18
0.19
0.13
0.16
0.18
0.12
0.14
0.17
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
S
895820
549781
328010
897808
549690
427264
920986
687644
574033
936253
835191
714346
987413
903380
832593
1038124
954240
890991
894147
550002
328795
896063
558137
428320
919135
689043
575087
934848
835080
713566
986599
903282
831253
1038300
954683
889417
896322
559190
335853
896720
Ccum
2106903
2116454
1896378
1909502
1984122
1851738
2135111
1969661
1948817
2123352
2009346
2101651
1983453
2109482
2174064
1869491
2092766
2038860
1815809
2327517
1975427
1917948
2340197
1807002
2096307
2422630
2003252
1875656
2077597
2179260
1799199
2171162
2110614
1796157
2231403
2294886
2141715
2021842
2377607
2153535
scn
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
Btrg
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
0.22
0.00
0.32
0.11
0.00
0.25
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.84
0.00
1.00
0.43
0.00
0.98
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.79
0.00
1.00
0.40
25
belowBtrg
0.21
0.98
0.00
0.59
1.00
0.19
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.49
1.00
0.00
0.91
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.47
1.00
0.00
0.88
belowBloss
0.02
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.89
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.00
F
0.20
0.21
0.15
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.18
0.19
0.13
0.16
0.18
0.12
0.14
0.17
0.16
0.21
0.26
0.16
0.21
0.21
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.16
0.19
0.20
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.12
0.15
0.17
0.16
0.21
0.26
0.16
0.21
0.21
0.16
0.20
S
557676
429375
915610
689135
571774
935577
832847
712980
985047
901215
828563
1037378
954400
890040
841283
489166
287202
846092
500677
406766
888563
657764
549382
913851
809253
682786
970923
887183
805887
1022286
939167
874333
848018
489494
286981
849286
503126
406223
888556
656224
Ccum
2211901
2012128
1696179
2460061
1908158
2235448
1890385
1775555
1531643
1928169
1635908
1670571
2132486
2340685
1952242
1793078
1833009
1908497
1898785
1983374
1923570
2149564
2016792
2214088
2254927
1965788
2072822
2052445
1988397
1865362
1993044
2182879
2289952
1826267
1668922
2347162
1966790
1716309
1907602
2178457
scn
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
Btrg
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
aboveFtrgt
0.00
0.97
0.09
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.02
1.00
0.45
0.00
0.96
0.11
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.48
0.00
1.00
0.18
0.00
26
belowBtrg
1.00
0.34
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.48
0.99
0.00
0.84
1.00
0.36
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.86
1.00
0.00
0.99
1.00
0.55
1.00
1.00
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.81
0.00
0.03
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.07
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.20
0.16
0.19
0.20
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.12
0.15
0.17
0.16
0.21
0.26
0.16
0.21
0.21
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.16
0.19
0.20
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.12
0.15
0.17
0.17
0.22
0.28
0.17
0.21
0.21
0.17
0.20
0.21
0.17
0.19
0.20
S
548024
915078
807081
682455
971400
886251
804994
1022144
938628
872906
847146
491631
288864
844431
502984
407404
885579
658397
547796
913761
807458
681234
970230
884335
804044
1021800
938899
872125
779120
437526
251021
782185
470199
387736
852882
629368
525394
896174
778432
653527
Ccum
1934895
1937228
2327468
1996778
2140986
2010266
2383767
1858393
2177696
2142740
2164399
1553881
1942867
2028011
2175974
1891388
2105315
1998662
2093785
1906469
2209859
2147499
1892906
2261815
1928947
2033744
1806486
2348442
2000409
1844068
1865270
2168760
1804038
1948160
1938144
2031941
2060407
2106587
2093602
2051455
scn
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
Btrg
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
ierr
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
aboveFtrgt
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.82
0.00
1.00
0.48
0.00
1.00
0.20
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.78
0.01
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.99
0.22
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
27
belowBtrg
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.77
1.00
0.01
0.98
1.00
0.58
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.72
1.00
0.02
0.97
1.00
0.58
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.98
0.00
0.02
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.92
0.00
0.07
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.13
0.16
0.18
0.17
0.22
0.28
0.17
0.21
0.21
0.17
0.20
0.20
0.17
0.19
0.20
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.13
0.15
0.18
0.17
0.22
0.28
0.17
0.21
0.21
0.17
0.20
0.20
0.17
0.19
0.20
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.13
S
954907
870420
774356
1006536
923281
857445
786637
439334
247801
781629
472761
388000
849082
629049
523468
893780
779043
652848
955682
869839
772691
1006839
922787
856869
779329
440559
249723
788209
475028
389238
850164
631026
523803
892887
775070
652751
957187
867615
774706
1007715
Ccum
2005939
2087261
2120715
1951215
1989570
2229618
1997302
1806213
1735183
2200742
2004892
1719633
2120202
1984488
2088842
2214306
2138652
1915486
2083643
2340781
2028283
1820009
1939695
2254853
1444066
1405667
2550807
1522934
1881159
1474772
2408616
1948419
1992647
2540845
1977394
1884643
2360271
2236980
1889768
1849107
scn
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
Btrg
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
0
0
ierr
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.86
0.00
1.00
0.59
0.00
1.00
0.29
0.00
0.78
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.56
0.00
1.00
0.31
0.00
0.76
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
28
belowBtrg
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.13
1.00
1.00
0.89
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.99
1.00
0.16
1.00
1.00
0.89
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.01
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.61
1.00
0.00
0.09
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.58
F
0.15
0.18
0.18
0.24
0.31
0.18
0.21
0.21
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.15
0.18
0.20
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.18
0.24
0.31
0.18
0.21
0.21
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.15
0.18
0.19
0.14
0.17
0.19
0.18
0.24
S
922338
856548
657638
348996
186523
656521
430093
355396
754120
580012
482575
863957
720026
602420
927291
837290
717307
979373
894868
818330
660015
351069
187364
660223
430392
354953
751819
579109
481959
862146
718500
601714
925522
836923
715315
978659
894135
817196
655983
349475
Ccum
1994022
2302064
2252439
2075557
1789269
1871359
1931548
1842868
2199413
2015842
2024014
2023086
2165841
2086723
2122035
2003505
2060145
1994170
2140488
2124013
1666584
1788771
1502131
1807929
1890719
1743625
2167001
1919635
2062454
2088836
1716750
2126721
2230664
1921556
2265654
1834136
2117186
2112069
2036792
2488345
scn
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.15
0.20
0.25
Btrg
0
500000
500000
500000
700000
700000
700000
900000
900000
900000
1100000
1100000
1100000
1300000
1300000
1300000
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.01
1.00
0.58
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.75
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
29
belowBtrg
0.00
0.03
0.96
1.00
0.22
1.00
1.00
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBloss
0.99
0.00
0.20
0.62
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.31
0.18
0.21
0.21
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.15
0.18
0.19
0.14
0.17
0.19
S
192732
664865
432278
355324
755648
580393
483386
862523
717603
601548
926315
833410
716303
978821
892137
815021
Ccum
1784336
1973651
2311224
1915760
2190501
2053851
1853145
2146553
2268583
1709011
2234675
2592352
2549955
1950242
2019392
2143602
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.1
1
0.1
1.05
0.1
1.1
0.1
1.2
0.2
1
0.2
1.05
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.2
0.35
0.4
80000
70000
60000
50000
80000
Btrg
70000
60000
50000
0.3
1
0.3
1.05
0.3
1.1
0.3
1.2
80000
70000
60000
50000
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
Ftrgt
Figure 13: Gulf of Riga herring risk analysis
30
Table 5: Golf of Riga herring - metrics measured in 2029

scn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
aboveFtrgt
0.22
0.26
0.12
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.26
0.14
0.23
0.02
0.23
0.28
0.14
0.12
0.00
0.24
0.23
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.24
0.14
0.22
0.28
0.25
0.23
0.13
0.18
0.04
0.24
0.23
0.16
0.11
0.02
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.94
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.46
0.98
0.00
0.02
0.67
0.99
1.00
0.01
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.50
0.96
31
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
F
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.36
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.35
0.20
0.25
0.29
0.32
0.34
0.20
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.32
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.36
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.35
S
88315
76824
67646
58664
38958
88312
76860
67767
58528
45290
88381
76808
67771
60271
53573
88477
76847
68834
64514
60641
88365
78263
72654
68343
64770
88452
76742
67603
58772
39039
88345
76465
67731
58462
45342
88488
76416
67683
59923
53641
Ccum
337508
370625
393696
405463
379695
347898
375442
390678
401387
390659
341336
375254
402383
394820
386667
345962
370761
382760
389709
409139
339267
369056
386679
394911
401155
344759
391530
379590
402496
384271
341612
357580
397702
398981
370816
339471
375754
394007
401233
376665
scn
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
0.24
0.23
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.24
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.23
0.24
0.16
0.22
0.28
0.24
0.25
0.15
0.18
0.06
0.25
0.22
0.14
0.10
0.02
0.24
0.21
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.23
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.04
0.65
0.98
1.00
0.02
0.70
0.99
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.27
0.77
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.51
0.91
0.00
0.06
0.64
0.95
1.00
0.04
0.68
0.99
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
32
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.13
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.08
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.93
F
0.20
0.25
0.29
0.32
0.34
0.20
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.32
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.36
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.35
0.20
0.25
0.29
0.32
0.34
0.20
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.32
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
S
88207
76716
68813
64387
60790
88337
78256
72735
68249
64724
88436
76742
67974
58106
39519
88418
76695
68018
57557
45483
87959
76734
67683
59916
53548
88324
76613
68871
64570
60629
88444
78242
72602
68326
64493
85508
74127
65034
50911
31029
Ccum
334805
368964
398230
417872
432665
362172
369564
377682
382392
402006
336191
387027
403167
378154
388474
332847
383054
379683
405438
418177
367537
365410
397996
393522
375484
320072
398241
412825
402259
407676
337194
387083
376997
400652
385823
353459
378776
400673
399195
351708
scn
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.81
0.03
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.57
0.01
1.00
1.00
0.64
0.08
0.00
1.00
0.59
0.03
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.72
0.08
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.54
0.06
1.00
0.99
0.60
0.10
0.01
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.41
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.82
1.00
0.00
0.10
0.88
1.00
1.00
0.05
0.90
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.45
0.96
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.77
0.99
0.00
0.14
0.85
1.00
1.00
33
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.36
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.35
0.35
0.21
0.26
0.30
0.33
0.35
0.21
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.33
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.36
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.35
0.36
0.21
0.26
0.30
0.33
0.35
S
85559
74108
65012
51163
42777
85663
74147
65131
57155
50568
85647
74229
67161
62781
58440
85584
76509
70976
66774
63075
85524
74141
65001
50489
31247
85539
74008
64927
51392
42666
85532
74267
65087
57113
50994
85597
73930
66987
62762
58563
Ccum
343735
389965
404940
367757
374626
349859
378325
395948
386211
379451
358274
377517
392919
405807
390873
354198
380241
382868
393445
402178
349546
377832
409804
373411
374230
348692
371662
409257
356244
340222
354178
383753
385315
354981
388311
357156
375504
408677
392856
371761
scn
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
aboveFtrgt
0.99
0.58
0.05
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.65
0.16
1.00
1.00
0.95
0.56
0.10
1.00
0.97
0.60
0.16
0.02
0.99
0.57
0.07
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.72
0.01
belowBtrg
0.08
0.87
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.47
0.91
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.71
0.98
0.00
0.19
0.81
0.99
1.00
0.13
0.85
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.86
1.00
34
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.32
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.16
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.04
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.38
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.48
F
0.21
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.33
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.36
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.35
0.35
0.21
0.26
0.30
0.33
0.35
0.21
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.33
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.36
0.36
S
85713
76360
70959
66750
63103
85835
73727
65171
50769
31049
85793
74179
64934
50927
42829
85293
73797
65244
57362
50673
85588
74040
66961
62930
58449
85560
76329
70969
66636
63013
82944
71347
62192
42484
24453
82851
71425
62255
46280
40288
Ccum
349842
357131
388855
405770
411054
335069
387570
399939
410637
340447
339091
379306
343507
360490
363944
337039
374619
392953
378413
372875
365511
403836
378059
374846
382493
373902
404272
377568
384431
376186
357165
385047
411606
371673
332930
360380
381670
415142
370994
355479
scn
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
ierr
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.57
0.02
1.00
1.00
0.88
0.27
0.00
1.00
0.86
0.16
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.65
0.07
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.57
0.05
1.00
1.00
0.84
0.29
0.02
1.00
0.83
0.20
0.01
0.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.98
1.00
0.00
0.29
0.97
1.00
1.00
0.19
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.76
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.93
1.00
0.00
0.35
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.22
0.96
1.00
1.00
1.00
35
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.44
0.94
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.17
0.53
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.35
0.35
0.22
0.28
0.31
0.34
0.35
0.22
0.26
0.29
0.32
0.34
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.36
0.36
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.22
0.28
0.31
0.34
0.35
0.22
0.26
0.29
0.32
0.34
S
82936
71300
62298
54324
48046
82889
71634
65600
61269
55903
83022
74743
69510
65218
61529
82973
71489
62028
41843
24596
82818
71415
61908
46286
40316
82870
71500
62293
54344
48183
82986
71594
65507
61145
55674
82950
74759
69524
65299
61370
Ccum
360445
378075
397458
400275
374338
353970
379499
403534
406075
393035
349023
363286
390868
393079
394147
360422
385697
404589
373185
344920
374937
394996
404320
417111
342380
370027
380679
412978
414066
382160
361249
383359
398452
400958
388743
345072
370723
409894
394259
394177
scn
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
ierr
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
0.62
0.14
1.00
1.00
0.96
0.54
0.12
1.00
0.99
0.80
0.33
0.05
1.00
0.81
0.24
0.02
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.68
0.02
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.01
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.70
0.97
0.00
0.01
0.34
0.85
0.99
0.00
0.36
0.90
0.99
1.00
0.27
0.94
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.42
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.02
0.85
1.00
1.00
36
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.50
0.88
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.24
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.08
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.98
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.33
0.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.17
F
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.36
0.36
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.22
0.28
0.31
0.34
0.35
0.22
0.26
0.29
0.32
0.34
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.36
0.36
0.24
0.31
0.35
0.35
0.35
S
82892
71328
61857
41473
24659
82976
71593
61510
46283
40322
82930
71272
62188
54270
48241
82668
71453
65419
61204
55763
82950
74572
69460
65187
61460
78026
66454
51022
28400
15213
77943
66590
51118
41388
36494
77871
66375
56766
49247
43526
Ccum
378849
358729
421076
396496
308431
364035
395927
334860
385474
402870
364411
388653
412088
418058
419422
351251
400794
410300
409221
388466
337965
391349
362582
394712
388877
369518
398574
374498
359772
324495
371088
399286
392863
372672
354727
364063
385947
402672
393015
354355
scn
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
0
0
0
0
0
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.55
0.02
1.00
1.00
0.73
0.12
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.62
0.07
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.58
0.06
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.53
0.04
1.00
0.99
0.70
0.16
0.01
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
0.01
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.65
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.44
0.98
1.00
0.00
0.05
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.02
0.76
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.64
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
37
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.90
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.40
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.31
0.83
0.99
F
0.24
0.30
0.33
0.35
0.35
0.24
0.28
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.36
0.36
0.24
0.31
0.35
0.36
0.36
0.24
0.30
0.33
0.35
0.35
0.24
0.28
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
S
77843
67896
62676
57248
50779
78798
71717
66614
62330
57514
77831
66595
50597
27916
14794
77989
66584
51368
41465
36479
77849
66812
56585
49460
43678
77827
67867
62525
57209
50787
78842
71684
66656
62367
57544
78297
66295
50092
28018
14840
Ccum
369582
400830
405640
395351
370471
359402
388808
395068
406947
402245
359781
392413
417039
362844
311039
377219
398405
402220
367994
349835
354180
393178
408542
370184
350794
371421
394760
406198
391875
359292
361907
383872
392596
421854
413150
378324
392605
364550
342727
291441
scn
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
50000
50000
50000
50000
50000
60000
60000
60000
60000
60000
70000
70000
70000
70000
70000
80000
80000
80000
80000
80000
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
0.96
0.59
0.13
1.00
1.00
0.96
0.56
0.12
1.00
1.00
0.95
0.52
0.10
1.00
0.98
0.66
0.22
0.03
belowBtrg
0.00
0.02
0.49
0.95
1.00
0.00
0.10
0.71
0.98
1.00
0.05
0.72
0.99
1.00
1.00
0.62
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
38
belowBloss
0.00
0.01
0.15
0.43
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.15
0.36
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.04
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.04
F
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.36
0.36
0.24
0.31
0.35
0.36
0.36
0.24
0.30
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.24
0.28
0.31
0.33
0.35
S
78074
66406
50343
41521
36583
77856
66440
57001
49363
43728
78275
67872
62693
56983
50862
78693
71920
66591
62292
57395
Ccum
365488
367259
311477
356463
376098
356641
394598
423719
353706
388186
370470
360301
367085
442377
384061
367107
426398
408162
404481
371343
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.1
1
0.1
1.05
0.1
1.1
0.1
1.2
0.2
1
0.2
1.05
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.2
0.35
0.4
2e+05
180000
160000
140000
120000
1e+05
0
2e+05
180000
Btrg
160000
140000
120000
1e+05
0
0.3
1
0.3
1.05
0.3
1.1
0.3
1.2
2e+05
180000
160000
140000
120000
1e+05
0
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
Ftrgt
Figure 14: Western Baltic spring spawning herring risk analysis
39
Table 6: Western Baltic spring spawning herring - metrics measured in 2029

scn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
aboveFtrgt
0.27
0.30
0.34
0.25
0.31
0.26
0.26
0.33
0.28
0.28
0.26
0.28
0.33
0.27
0.31
0.26
0.27
0.32
0.26
0.30
0.26
0.28
0.37
0.23
0.32
0.25
0.26
0.32
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.33
0.27
0.06
0.28
0.28
0.34
0.26
0.30
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
40
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.39
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
S
358278
298086
252995
216826
187589
358125
298886
252274
216825
187668
357876
299342
253074
216437
187766
357983
298860
252619
216306
187643
358457
299134
253465
216816
187343
358523
298796
252965
216238
187930
358952
299766
252774
216645
194359
357505
298772
252375
215688
186653
Ccum
1387388
1484093
1577352
1641595
1707477
1382052
1495018
1570833
1612035
1704768
1387416
1505117
1615765
1615795
1742046
1412648
1496770
1622256
1658345
1741487
1407384
1535753
1624536
1688826
1713919
1386391
1525802
1587145
1681917
1698225
1390234
1508259
1597673
1686622
1694775
1366697
1564139
1617651
1754317
1741059
scn
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
aboveFtrgt
0.26
0.25
0.33
0.28
0.28
0.23
0.25
0.37
0.26
0.29
0.24
0.27
0.35
0.27
0.30
0.27
0.24
0.36
0.27
0.30
0.26
0.28
0.35
0.28
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.32
0.25
0.08
0.26
0.25
0.32
0.29
0.30
0.28
0.25
0.35
0.28
0.30
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.76
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
41
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.39
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
S
358111
298618
252868
216272
187721
358098
298168
252768
216341
187138
357700
299852
252801
216419
187760
358125
299429
253304
216938
188200
358582
298638
253232
216547
188500
357776
298799
252946
216132
194593
358869
299051
252926
215203
187691
358300
300063
253991
216153
187592
Ccum
1480951
1502214
1594768
1711968
1751782
1344309
1422555
1603976
1684954
1652130
1333392
1456204
1650559
1714153
1710708
1388556
1525161
1611473
1771273
1660777
1327714
1518715
1622081
1670676
1702931
1408915
1486044
1561917
1736259
1611718
1457761
1624557
1653176
1663262
1826827
1366525
1544270
1618592
1674835
1624738
scn
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
ierr
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
0.27
0.26
0.35
0.26
0.28
0.28
0.29
0.37
0.26
0.30
0.26
0.28
0.33
0.25
0.30
0.27
0.24
0.33
0.28
0.22
0.27
0.25
0.33
0.26
0.09
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
42
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.39
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
S
357255
298613
252553
216203
187845
357488
298726
252547
217038
187196
357480
298199
253492
216372
187730
358343
299238
251939
215844
187024
356426
298294
252570
217171
194345
343460
284915
239455
204030
175736
344024
284349
239619
204268
175829
343787
284946
240206
204461
175684
Ccum
1312608
1549724
1555928
1709091
1692377
1366068
1421509
1659419
1755900
1765767
1390037
1450628
1522075
1584724
1796767
1434341
1437775
1585039
1684082
1746583
1487412
1613924
1783979
1701220
1812667
1411995
1513259
1635326
1642226
1736838
1414279
1570616
1596086
1674337
1666903
1414210
1543170
1621401
1660722
1765833
scn
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.46
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.31
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
43
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.40
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
S
343947
285010
239875
204301
175921
343957
284708
239395
204222
176210
343772
284785
239457
204213
178785
343830
284964
239818
204415
188269
343984
283697
239482
204094
175731
342912
285507
239706
204311
175812
343727
284312
238222
203752
175539
343518
285100
239718
204700
174834
Ccum
1421399
1542466
1619260
1705175
1757225
1406053
1539743
1603215
1694846
1729543
1378015
1551459
1596003
1715748
1734971
1389525
1532233
1666755
1662141
1710918
1460863
1611708
1650283
1676247
1793266
1424389
1615522
1580816
1730452
1673243
1465718
1562461
1621777
1685700
1714677
1429842
1585134
1514231
1637399
1751675
scn
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.90
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.96
0.47
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.98
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.35
0.94
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.15
44
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.40
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
S
343809
284520
239224
204256
176120
343911
285143
239964
203927
178600
343836
284771
239573
204375
188482
342792
286148
239865
203653
175797
343567
284931
238978
203597
176421
343550
285162
239912
203906
176002
343307
285135
239654
204668
176266
344806
283936
239320
203014
175124
Ccum
1408985
1631759
1638871
1792801
1712094
1368924
1574752
1590912
1737599
1768306
1444859
1533290
1621574
1691078
1715884
1520885
1589392
1534511
1625326
1672458
1477163
1616636
1717604
1799296
1511720
1350798
1564905
1558282
1706097
1675518
1476894
1491836
1719479
1766901
1746669
1316858
1544146
1703930
1678443
1562176
scn
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
ierr
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.84
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.35
0.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.89
45
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.42
0.21
0.26
0.32
0.37
0.40
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.43
S
343177
285098
240984
204516
178745
343026
285096
239769
205728
188864
330779
272092
227066
192682
164469
330445
271150
226902
192678
164758
329550
271431
227279
192543
164674
329924
271436
226504
192576
164508
330574
271936
227134
192943
165679
330218
271915
227089
192378
172878
Ccum
1517991
1626953
1693262
1629143
1630701
1274746
1467154
1705342
1700058
1695434
1451669
1554983
1660634
1733377
1661015
1462446
1551972
1579999
1684016
1639012
1455364
1548931
1609929
1668798
1769209
1431028
1544746
1622396
1725576
1718922
1448689
1594041
1650244
1737094
1738248
1426775
1549771
1619300
1746998
1742998
scn
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
ierr
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.77
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.72
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.68
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.84
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.66
0.99
46
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.41
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.43
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.41
S
330336
271701
227077
196682
182915
329477
270977
226499
191723
165261
330071
271579
226093
191850
164661
330230
271967
227270
193105
165311
330104
272162
226732
191791
164995
330656
271611
227638
192881
165123
330010
271985
226838
192666
172673
329878
271784
226529
196400
182783
Ccum
1442437
1551028
1676088
1742828
1724299
1429791
1543578
1720348
1446734
1669840
1496175
1470558
1665011
1766712
1857246
1376188
1558971
1662130
1725322
1798490
1322526
1529803
1720026
1578262
1756287
1408894
1654920
1668609
1783704
1696215
1396204
1602744
1672323
1785623
1775015
1488542
1520136
1708375
1680441
1686438
scn
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
ierr
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.69
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.19
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.63
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
47
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.45
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.43
0.22
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.41
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
S
329981
271057
226296
192175
164355
330142
270233
227316
193308
164856
330652
273694
226377
192854
164822
329924
271226
227748
193670
164175
330928
271884
225379
191765
165092
328922
272265
227711
192936
172329
329697
270591
226417
196499
183210
305047
247515
204592
171357
142895
Ccum
1582235
1606909
1618374
1572968
1528483
1431036
1505089
1717451
1777511
1895394
1445485
1644052
1657262
1618701
1698788
1370141
1519033
1788101
1603575
1725565
1551543
1572657
1623547
1857891
1593963
1414151
1557779
1711515
1737976
1765336
1334699
1488148
1645442
1736704
1670434
1507582
1579242
1689654
1697213
1543606
scn
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
n.cv
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.99
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
48
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
F
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.48
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.45
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.40
0.43
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
S
304611
247220
204147
171114
143418
305503
247959
204438
171476
144957
304359
247034
204124
170753
145782
304683
247534
204886
171319
152663
304710
247051
204548
175732
163127
304667
247526
205626
185792
173165
303747
247433
204506
171330
141310
304256
247867
204784
170892
143890
Ccum
1470019
1611542
1731096
1686462
1509569
1511883
1576857
1694889
1754233
1711479
1518136
1589542
1676262
1765146
1765855
1482237
1593092
1675432
1736560
1783379
1486146
1611664
1716174
1718632
1754243
1487381
1599414
1694214
1680415
1693512
1502944
1600350
1598272
1816652
1787734
1455954
1581463
1727357
1804488
1492545
scn
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
n.cv
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
0
0
0
0
0
100000
100000
100000
100000
100000
120000
120000
120000
120000
120000
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.96
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.86
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.71
0.99
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.98
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
49
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.04
F
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.48
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.45
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.40
0.43
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
S
304220
248137
203749
171602
144906
305554
247750
204193
171408
145433
304464
247405
204103
171899
152569
304989
247997
204008
175754
163286
303965
247359
204729
185560
172609
303831
247787
204593
171532
139993
303897
246812
203949
170910
142020
303890
247606
203310
170248
144041
Ccum
1476805
1648076
1694263
1771268
1702860
1529701
1598590
1693381
1641143
1735303
1555134
1603272
1720075
1779651
1778705
1461835
1624152
1714643
1755549
1704143
1512568
1612582
1717408
1725085
1704646
1543636
1732660
1730838
1661313
1364014
1495340
1583119
1610086
1710024
1382512
1464406
1567586
1746388
1639071
1678627
scn
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
n.cv
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ftrgt
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Btrg
140000
140000
140000
140000
140000
160000
160000
160000
160000
160000
180000
180000
180000
180000
180000
200000
200000
200000
200000
200000
ierr
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
aboveFtrgt
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
belowBtrg
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.79
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.66
0.98
0.00
0.00
0.35
0.93
1.00
50
belowBloss
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
F
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.48
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.43
0.45
0.24
0.31
0.37
0.40
0.43
S
303815
247733
204369
170632
145155
305641
247996
203847
170961
152793
304824
246618
203884
175770
163441
303659
247368
205507
185376
172979
Ccum
1511884
1664575
1597996
1589068
1913362
1580135
1651817
1608568
1673258
1873633
1657232
1524594
1689765
1617067
1888778
1473581
1618557
1704782
1689744
1805082
Final thoughs
The plots with the risk analysis give a wide perspective of the risks of exploiting the stock at specific
levels, taking into account the interaction with the Btrg candidate. The analysis clearly show that there
are pairs of values that have a high probability of driving the stock to unsustainable levels.
The levels of implementation error do not change the wide perspective, although the increase in implementation error tends to require lower Ftrgt and Btrg . In any case a level 20% implementation error
shows that certain pairs of Ftrgt and Btrg are not robust.
The successful candidates must assure Btrg is above the S/R break point and an exploitation level that
is consistent with Btrg considering the stock dynamics.
51
European Commission
EUR 25275 EN Joint Research Centre Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen
Title: Testing the robustness of HCRs applied to Baltic pelagic stocks - Working Document in support to the
STECF Expert Working Group 12-02 Management Plans - part 1
Author(s): E. Jardim, I. Mosqueira, C. Millar & C. Osio
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
2012 51 pp. 21 x 29.7 cm
EUR Scientific and Technical Research series ISSN 1831-9424
ISBN 978-92-79-23679-2
doi:10.2788/19469
Abstract
This Technical note contains the Working Document Testing the robustness of HCRs applied to Baltic pelagic
stocks. The Working Document was drafted in order to support the work of the STECF Expert Working Group
(12-02) on the evaluation of multi-annual fisheries management plans.
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JRC Technical Note - Working Doc For STECF EWG-12-02 JRC69877

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Testing the robustness of HCRs applied to

Baltic pelagic stocks

E. Jardim, I. Mosqueira, C. Millar & C. Osio

EUR 25275 EN - 2012

Testing the robustness of HCRs applied to Baltic pelagic stocks

other attached packages:

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):

Figure 1: Baltic sprat

Figure 2: Bothnian Sea Herring

Figure 3: Central Baltic Herring

40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

20000 40000 60000 80000

Figure 4: Gulf of Riga Herring

Figure 5: Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring

SSBY +1 > Btrigger

SSBY +1 < Btrigger

spawning stock biomass

Table 1: Simulation scenarios

Inconsistencies between HCR and stock dynamics

Figure 7: Sprat scenario: Ftrgt = 0.4 and Btrg = 0

0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55

600 700 800 900 1000 1100

Figure 8: Sprat scenario: Ftrgt = 0.4 and Btrg = 800

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20

Risk plots and detailed tables

Figure 10: Baltic sprat risk analysis

Table 2: Sprat - metrics measured in 2029

Figure 11: Bothnian Sea herring risk analysis

Table 3: Bothnian Sea herring - metrics measured in 2029

Figure 12: Central Baltic Herring risk analysis

Table 4: Central Baltic herring - metrics measured in 2029

Figure 13: Gulf of Riga herring risk analysis

Table 5: Golf of Riga herring - metrics measured in 2029

Figure 14: Western Baltic spring spawning herring risk analysis

Table 6: Western Baltic spring spawning herring - metrics measured in 2029

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