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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
UNTIL RECENTLY, it seemed that an ambitious Bush administration bid to restore nuclear cooperation between
the United States and India might be dead, a victim of domestic Indian politics. Anti-American communist parties that
support Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's centrist government were blocking the deal. But Mr. Singh took a bold risk
to salvage the pact, trading communist support for that of a smaller regional party in hopes of assembling a new
majority. Yesterday the gamble paid off, as Mr. Singh's government survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote. Now,
the question is whether the pact can survive the American political process. There isn't much time; under U.S. law,
Congress must be in session continuously for 30 days to consider the deal. Before that clock can start, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group must give India a green light. While those approvals are
likely, they won't happen instantaneously. And because of the long August recess, there may not be more than 30 "legislative days" left before
Congress adjourns on Sept. 26. The deal raises many legitimate questions. But, on balance, it is in the United States' interest, and Congress should find the
time to say yes -- in a lame-duck session after the November election, if necessary. U.S. nuclear cooperation with India ceased when India, which had
refused to sign the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, exploded a nuclear "device" in 1974. The sanctions were intended to show India, and the world, that there
was a price to be paid for flouting the treaty. Times change, though, and the Bush administration's logic is that the benefits of a "strategic partnership" with
India outweigh the risks of waiving the old rules. If booming India uses more nuclear energy, it will emit less in greenhouse gases. Unlike Pakistan, India has
developed its nuclear arsenal without leaking materials or know-how to others. Perhaps the fact that India is a democracy that shares not only values but
interests -- checking China, fighting Islamist terrorism -- with the United States matters more than its signature on a treaty. It's a bet worth making, especially
since the agreement creates more international supervision of India's nuclear fuel cycle than there would be without it. To be sure, it is a risk. The deal
weakens the U.S. threat to cut off uranium if India conducts another nuclear test. India's economic ties and military-to-military contacts with Iran are
worrisome, as is its stubborn habit of taking "nonaligned" stances against U.S. interests. But the fact that Mr. Singh successfully ditched the communists for
the sake of closer ties with Washington is a hopeful sign that the agreement is already inducing moderation. At this point, if Congress rejects the deal, the
likeliest outcome -- in addition to much ill will in New Delhi -- is that India, freshly approved as a customer for technology and fuel
by the IAEA and the Suppliers Group, will simply buy its planned 25,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity from France or Russia. After much
delay, Mr. Singh has done his part; now it's Congress's turn.
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
Meanwhile, the government appears satisfied with the response from the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) and members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) who were briefed by Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon in Vienna Friday.
However, it is not minimising the difficulties that may lie ahead and rejects suggestions that once the Safeguards
Agreement is approved by the I.A.E.A., the nuclear deal is on "auto pilot". "We cannot take N.S.G. for granted. It
works on the basis of consensus," the sources said. Regretting the "hurry" with which the Left had withdrawn support to the government over the
deal, the sources said that even after the approval by the NSG and the US Congress, India had the option of not
operationalising the deal if it's final shape did not satisfy Parliament.
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
AFTER a rancorous, sometimes riotous, two-day debate on its most contentious policy, a nuclear co-operation agreement with
America, India’s government on July 22nd won a parliamentary vote of confidence. This did not ensure the survival of the vexed
agreement, on which George Bush and India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, shook hands in July 2005. It still needs the approval of several
bodies, including the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But the government’s victory, by 275 votes to 256, with ten
abstentions, has probably saved it from strangulation by its Indian opponents. It has also prolonged the government, at least for a bit.
A governing coalition led by Mr Singh’s Congress party was on July 9th deserted by its Communist allies, in response to its long-delayed decision to submit
the nuclear deal to the IAEA. A tribute to nuclear-armed India’s rising stature, the agreement in effect grants an amnesty on its refusal to sign the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), by allowing it to purchase nuclear fuel and technology regardless. But the Communists oppose the deal’s subtext, closer ties
with America, and therefore vowed to bring the government down. So the government called the confidence vote to thwart them. The victory was
especially glorious
for Mr Singh, who has waged a quiet and lonely campaign for the nuclear agreement, in the teeth of the Communists’ opposition
and Congress’s indifference. But the
deal—or, more precisely, a safeguards agreement attached to it—is now to go before the IAEA’s board
of directors on August 1st. If it approves it, the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group will be asked to waive its
rules on nuclear trading for India. America’s Congress would then be asked to give a final blessing—though this
may not be possible before Mr Bush’s administration ends in January.
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
"The U.S. will urge other board members of the International Atomic Energy Agency to support an inspection plan tied to
the accord during a meeting on Aug. 1," State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said in Washington. "The 2005 accord signed between Singh
and Bush gives India access to fuel and nuclear reactors without joining the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It would lift restrictions imposed on
suppliers to provide India with atomic technologies since it tested a nuclear weapon in 1974 without being listed as an atomic weapons state. "India can
now seek the nuclear deal's approval from the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a mandatory requirement before the U.S.
Congress can ratify it. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino predicted approval in Congress should the plans
succeed with the IAEA and the 45-nation suppliers group." It was a tough battle for the Indian prime minister who staked his
government's survival on the parliamentary vote. And it was a close call. The Congress party-led government won with 275 lawmakers voting for it and 256
against. The number of abstentions was not immediately clear, although not all 543 members of Parliament's lower house took part in the vote. "The vote
capped a week of intense politicking that saw the government rename an airport for a lawmaker's father, promise a high-level job to another, and - rival
politicians allege - hand out millions of dollars to many others in an effort to survive." Although this landmark development is a major milestone in India-US
economic and strategic relationship, nearly half the Indian lawmakers have opposed the deal in its present form. Meanwhile the 'Marketing Guru of the
World' Dr. Jagdish Sheth, Professor of Marketing in the Goizueta Business School, Atlanta, USA, today asked India to look at issues in a "multi-centric" way
instead of the present US-centric prism. Sheth predicted that India and China, along with the United States, would form the "emerging geoeconomic triad"
replacing the US-Canada, European Union and Japan triad. He said the 21st century would certainly belong to 'Large Emerging Nations (LEN)' as the 19th
century belonged to America and 18th century to Europe. He said LEN would consist of India, China, Russia, Brazil and other emerging countries. Author of
the famous book 'Chindia Rising: How China and India will benefit your business', Dr Sheth predicted redefining of capitalism and democracy with
compassionate capitalism, disciplined democracy and worldwide rise of spiritualism.
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
India's civil nuclear agreement with the United States may have cleared a key hurdle in New Delhi this week, but it appears unlikely
to win final approval in the U.S. Congress this year, raising the possibility that India could begin nuclear trade with other countries even
without the Bush administration's signature deal, according to administration officials and congressional aides.
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
The U.S. ambassador to India said Wednesday he hoped a landmark deal on nuclear energy cooperation with the
United States could be sent to Congress for approval in September, one day after India's government won a
confidence vote that paves the way for the agreement to move forward. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was forced to call the
confidence vote after communist political parties withdrew their support for his government this month to protest the agreement, fearing it would draw India
closer to the U.S. On Wednesday, several key Indian political parties, including the communists, said they were forming an alliance to oppose the
government. Though Singh made enemies in his bid to push ahead with the nuclear deal, he had the backing of India's powerful business community.
Markets surged Wednesday as business leaders and investors anticipated a slew of economic changes that had been stalled because of the government's now-
defunct alliance with the communists. The nuclear pact would end more than three decades of nuclear isolation for India, opening its civilian reactors to
international inspections in exchange for the nuclear fuel and technology it has been denied because of its refusal to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
and its testing of atomic weapons. India imports about 75 percent of its oil, and Singh has argued the country needs the nuclear deal to power its financial
growth and lift hundreds of millions of its 1.1 billion citizens out of poverty. To finalize the deal, India must strike separate agreements with the International
Atomic Energy Agency as well as the Nuclear Suppliers Group of countries that export nuclear material. Then the U.S. Congress will need to approve the
accord. U.S. Ambassador David Mulford said Washington hoped New Delhi would quickly finalize the deal so it
could be presented to Congress for approval in early September.
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
The White House wants the American public to think it's on the rebound, scoring important triumphs in Iraq and North Korea and
on domestic spying while taking tough stands on oil drilling and relief for homeowners. Experts and polls, however, say the White House
is wrong; President Bush hasn't begun a comeback. "All this is pretty much a lot of noise. He's going out with a whimper," said Erwin
Hargrove, presidential scholar at Vanderbilt University and the author of "The Effective President." Adam Warber, professor of
political science at Clemson University, had similar thoughts. "It's very difficult for him now. His public approval
is so poor, he doesn't really have a lot of political capital," Warber said. Congress is run by Democrats reluctant to
give Bush any domestic victories, and his approval ratings have remained at or near a dismal 30 percent for about a
year.
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
WITH his latest initiatives involving Iraq, Iran and North Korea, the US President, George Bush, has accelerated a shift toward
centrist foreign policies, a change that has cheered Democrats, angered some Republicans and roiled the presidential
campaign. Mr Bush sent his first high-level emissary to sit in on nuclear talks with Iran, which ended without agreement on Saturday. He also agreed
for the first time on Friday to set a "time horizon" for withdrawing troops from Iraq, and authorised the Secretary of State,
Condoleezza Rice, to join North Korean diplomats at six-party talks about ending that country's nuclear weapons program. The maneuvers
underscore how much the Bush Administration has changed since 2002, when the President proclaimed Iraq, Iran and North Korea to
be an "axis of evil". Many Democrats view the developments as evidence that Mr Bush is moving closer to military and diplomatic policies long advocated
by their likely presidential nominee, Senator Barack Obama. At the same time, the moves have agitated conservatives, including some former
administration officials, who believe that he has abandoned principles set forth during his first term to embrace a more accommodating posture pushed by Dr
Rice and her supporters. John Bolton, a former US ambassador for Mr Bush who has become one of his most vocal
conservative critics, likened the developments to breaches in a dam that is about to burst. "Once the collapse begins, adversaries have a real
opportunity to gain advantage," he said on Saturday. "In terms of the Bush presidency, this many reversals this close to the end
destroys credibility ... It appears there is no depth to which this administration will not sink in its last days."
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HBR SDI 08 Politics Updates
The decider has become the compromiser. President Bush has racked up a series of significant political victories in
recent weeks, on surveillance reform, war funding and an international agreement on global warming, but only after
engaging in the kind of conciliation with opponents that his administration has often avoided. With less than seven months left in office,
Bush is embracing such compromises in part because he has to. Faced with persistently low public approval ratings, a
Democratic Congress and wavering support among Republicans, he and his aides have given ground on key
issues to accomplish broader legislative and diplomatic goals, according to administration officials, legislative
aides and political experts. "To get something done or to get what you want or most of what you want, you've got to compromise," said Nicholas E.
Calio, who served as Bush's first legislative affairs director. "The president and the White House are very focused on getting things
done, and they don't abide the notion that he's a lame duck." Bush's willingness to compromise remains limited, and he has threatened
to veto several key measures winding through Congress, from Medicare payments to housing reform. Yet any hint of accommodation is notable for a
president who has often pursued a confrontational strategy with Congress -- even when it was in GOP hands -- and who has stood behind an unpopular war
and go-it-alone policies abroad.
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