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BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (7.3) (1.1) (33.9) 4QFY11 575 425 143 % chg (yoy) 7.7 12.4 4.2
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2012, United Bank of India (UBI) registered a moderate set of numbers. The companys net profit grew by 4.2% yoy (down 33.9% qoq) to `149cr, which was lower than our estimates due to higher margin contraction and provisioning expenses than estimated by us. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
Slippages up on account of a chunky NPA account: For FY2012, the banks advances and deposits grew mostly in-line with the industry at 17.8% and 14.5%, respectively. CA deposit accretion picked up during 4QFY2012, with 33.6% qoq growth (up 14.2% yoy), while savings accounts growth was reasonably healthy at 3.7% qoq (up 14.5% yoy). Reported CASA ratio on a qoq basis increased by 99bp to 40.8%. The banks cost of deposits increased by 23bp sequentially due to higher cost of borrowings on its bulk deposits. Also, yield on advances was lower during 4QFY2012 (down 29bp qoq) on account of interest reversals (`17cr on account of Kingfisher) and FITL on restructured assets, which led to reported NIM of the bank dipping by 38bp qoq to 3.0%. Fee income of the bank for 4QFY2012 grew by 52.4% qoq on account of stronger recoveries (doubled on a sequential basis to `33cr) and fee income arising from processing charges, locker fees and incidental charges (booked for proceeding quarters also in some cases). The banks slippages (`590cr) came in higher by 63.1% qoq on account of classifying Kingfisher as an NPA in 4QFY2012 (exposure of `314cr). The banks restructured book increased by 37.7% qoq, taking the outstanding restructured book to `3,106cr. The sharp jump in restructuring book was due to restructuring of Air India (exposure of `475cr; NPV loss from 1QFY2013) and Rajasthan SEB (~`500cr).
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 81.6 6.4 1.2 10.9
3m (8.2) (25.3)
3yr 39.5 NA
Outlook and valuation: We believe the bank has several levers for structurally
improving its RoA, but execution risks in terms of improving yields while maintaining the asset quality continue to remain an investment concern on the stock. That said, the bank is trading at inexpensive valuations of 0.4x FY2013E ABV (one of the lowest in the industry). The banks peers are trading at 0.6x-0.7x FY2014 ABV, in spite of having similar and in some cases much lower CASA ratios. We value the stock at 0.6x FY2014E ABV and, hence, recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `78.
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit available to eq. shareholders % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2011 2,169 55.9 457 49.7 2.7 13.3 4.4 0.6 0.6 14.1
FY2012 2,479 14.3 544 19.0 2.7 15.1 3.9 0.5 0.7 14.2
FY2013E 2,899 16.9 677 24.5 2.7 18.8 3.1 0.5 0.7 15.5
FY2014E 3,390 17.0 816 20.5 2.8 22.6 2.6 0.4 0.7 16.5
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 2,132 1,606 491 7 29 1,513 619 238 180 48 58 33 99 857 379 234 146 478 307 342 171 22 149 12.8 2,051 1,567 482 2 1,383 668 163 118 46 45 16 55 831 348 226 122 483 199 93 284 58 226 20.4 4.0 2.5 1.9 179.0 NA 9.4 (7.3) 45.7 52.4 4.6 28.3 100.2 78.0 3.1 9.1 3.5 19.5 (1.1) 53.9 266.4 (39.7) (62.2) (33.9) (762)bp 1,767 1,320 426 9 13 1,193 575 219 129 44 90 15 70 794 369 218 151 425 284 111 141 (2) 143 (1.4) 20.7 21.7 15.1 (20.1) 129.0 26.9 7.7 8.5 39.1 9.0 (35.4) 120.9 40.7 7.9 2.8 7.3 (3.8) 12.4 8.1 206.5 21.2 (1,194.5) 4.2 1420bp
Estimates 697 189 886 377 510 199 311 105 206
% chg (11.2) 25.9 (3.3) 0.7 (6.3) 54.2 (44.9) (79.1) (27.6)
4QFY12 3QFY12 %chg (qoq) 4QFY11 63,043 89,116 70.7 9,741 26,589 36,330 40.8 12.7 6.9 11.7 7.8 3.0 44.2 2,176 3.4 1,076 1.7 69.2 4.4 1.4 59,100 82,815 71.4 7,293 25,646 32,939 39.8 12.6 6.7 12.0 7.8 3.4 41.8 1,939 3.3 1,178 2.0 66.5 2.7 0.4 6.7 7.6 (62)bp 33.6 3.7 10.3 99bp 6bp 23bp (29)bp 2bp (38)bp 241bp 12.2 13bp (8.7) (29)bp 265bp 171bp 98bp 53,502 77,845 68.7 8,529 23,217 31,746 40.8 13.1 6.0 10.7 7.7 3.1 46.5 1,356 2.5 757 1.4 72.1 3.2 0.5
%chg (yoy) 17.8 14.5 201bp 14.2 14.5 14.4 (1)bp (36)bp 97bp 98bp 9bp (13)bp (223)bp 60.5 90bp 42.0 30bp (298)bp 126bp 87bp
70.0
40.4 40.0
5.6 6.5
3.2 1.5
8.8 5.8
6.7 7.6
68.2
68.0
40.8
40.2
39.9
39.8
(1.7) (1.0)
66.0
40.8
39.6
5.0 -
2.50
from 3.3% and 2.0% in 3QFY2012, respectively. As of 4QFY2012, provision-tocoverage ratio including technical write-offs stood at 69.2% (66.5% in 3QFY2012). The banks restructured book increased by 37.7% qoq, taking its outstanding restructured book to `3,106cr. The sharp jump in restructuring book was due to restructuring of Air India (exposure of `475cr; NPV loss from 1QFY2013) and Rajasthan SEB (`500cr). The bank has exposure to only West Bengal and Maharashtra SEB other than the Rajasthan SEB and, hence, does not expect any more restructuring on account of these loans.
2.5 1.4
2.9 1.7
3.5 2.2
3.3 2.0
3.4 1.7
3.2
2.9
4.6
2.7
4.4
0.2 -
46.5
43.5
42.7
41.8
44.2
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
40.0 38.0
1.4 1.3
(10.0)
Investment arguments
Structurally strong CASA than peers
UBI has historically had a strong CASA ratio. The banks average CASA ratio during FY200512 has been 41.4%. Even during 4QFY2012, the bank had maintained a strong CASA ratio of ~40%, which is the highest among its peers, which consists of banks like UCO Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank and Syndicate Bank. Of the total CASA deposits, saving deposits, which are less volatile, accounted for 29.8% of the total deposits, while current deposits accounted for 10.9%. This high proportion of CASA deposits is mainly because of a large retail customer base spread across the eastern and northeastern regions. Of the total branch network of ~1,700 branches, 81% is concentrated in the eastern and northeastern regions. Moreover, 59% of UBIs branches are located in rural and semi-urban areas, giving the bank an access to low-cost deposits.
Earlier estimates FY2013 16.5 14.0 39.6 2.9 (8.8) 15.0 15.0 3.0 FY2014 14.0 14.0 39.1 2.9 10.6 15.0 15.0 3.0
Revised estimates FY2013 17.0 14.0 39.7 2.7 (10.9) 15.0 15.0 2.9 FY2014 17.0 14.0 39.3 2.8 13.0 15.0 15.0 2.7
FY2014 Var. (%) (4.7) 4.6 (3.1) 0.2 (5.7) (8.5) (3.4) (3.4) (3.4) Earlier Revised estimates estimates 3,438 690 4,128 1,826 2,301 967 1,334 433 901 3,390 737 4,128 1,829 2,298 982 1,316 427 889 Var. (%) (1.4) 6.9 (0.0) 0.2 (0.1) 1.5 (1.3) (1.3) (1.3)
Earlier Revised estimates estimates 3,042 624 3,666 1,588 2,078 912 1,167 379 788 2,899 653 3,551 1,591 1,960 834 1,127 366 761
Dec-10
Dec-11
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries) # without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) Preference Dividend PAT for Eqty.SH - YoY Growth (%) FY08 1,150 13.7 348 (22.1) 1,498 2.8 778 (4.3) 719 11.7 415 13.9 304 8.8 37 12.1 267 30.7 267 30.7 FY09 905 (21.3) 466 33.9 1,370 (8.5) 903 16.0 467 (35.1) 288 (30.7) 179 (41.1) 34 19.1 145 (45.7) 145 (45.7) FY10 1,162 28.4 491 5.5 1,652 20.6 1,045 15.7 607 30.0 431 49.7 176 (1.6) 62 35.0 115 (20.9) 115 (20.9) FY11 1,391 19.8 559 13.8 1,950 18.0 1,074 2.8 876 44.2 465 8.0 411 132.6 88 21.5 322 181.0 17 305 166.1 FY12 2,169 55.9 637 14.0 2,806 43.9 1,299 21.0 1,507 72.1 838 80.1 669 63.0 145 21.7 524 62.5 67 457 49.7 FY13E 2,549 17.5 672 5.5 3,221 14.8 1,381 6.3 1,840 22.1 907 8.2 933 39.5 280 30.0 653 24.7 88 565 23.6 FY14E 2,859 12.1 658 (2.0) 3,517 9.2 1,588 15.0 1,929 4.8 906 (0.2) 1,023 9.6 332 32.4 691 5.8 84 608 7.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Equity Preference Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 1,532 1,532 1,129 46,971 26.4 1,162 1,275 2,242 54,311 5,249 623 18,515 27,858 25.7 623 1,443 54,311 28.4 FY09 1,782 1,532 250 1,295 16.1 457 1,525 2,436 4,532 1,878 FY10 866 316 550 3,037 25.0 915 1,525 2,481 4,707 1,671 FY11 1,144 344 800 3,877 77,845 14.2 2,887 1,525 2,763 5,943 1,385 26,259 53,502 26.4 819 2,133 16.9 FY12 1,161 361 800 4,419 14.5 3,060 1,860 2,394 5,092 2,185 29,059 63,043 17.8 805 1,826 13.3 FY13E 1,161 361 800 4,928 14.0 3,479 2,176 2,623 4,064 2,484 32,688 73,761 17.0 888 2,076 13.7 FY14E 1,161 361 800 5,556 14.0 3,957 2,546 2,858 4,633 2,826 34,795 86,300 17.0 979 2,361 13.7
54,536 68,180
62,031 77,005
17,924 26,068 35,394 42,330 27.0 624 1,679 14.2 19.6 651 1,578 24.1
62,031 77,005
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Preference Dividend ROA after Pref Div Leverage RoE 1.9 0.6 1.3 0.4 1.6 0.6 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 23.7 7.1 2.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 1.6 0.5 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 25.7 5.1 2.0 0.7 1.3 0.3 1.6 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 2.60 1.00 1.59 0.24 1.83 0.53 2.36 1.56 0.80 0.17 0.63 0.08 0.55 2.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 1.8 0.5 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.6 25.0 14.2 2.7 0.8 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.6 24.9 15.5 2.7 0.8 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.6 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.7 25.1 16.5 61.7 4.4 0.5 78.1 4.3 6.1 0.7 3.4 4.4 0.6 3.8 3.9 0.5 4.1 3.1 0.5 6.8 2.6 0.4 7.7 0.9 13.4 0.3 0.7 13.6 0.0 9.6 2.0 13.3 2.2 15.1 108.5 2.4 18.8 122.2 4.0 22.6 142.0 4.5 86.3 101.2 2.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 59.8 2.8 1.5 2.9 0.3 48.5 3.2 1.8 2.7 0.4 68.0 2.5 1.4 2.3 0.5 72.1 3.4 1.7 3.6 0.7 69.2 4.3 1.8 2.9 0.6 70.0 4.8 1.7 2.7 0.6 72.5 38.6 59.3 11.2 6.4 37.8 64.9 13.3 7.6 38.1 62.1 12.8 8.2 40.8 68.7 13.1 8.9 40.7 70.7 13.3 8.9 39.7 72.6 13.1 8.6 39.3 74.5 13.0 8.4 1.9 65.9 0.3 7.1 2.1 63.3 0.2 5.1 2.1 55.1 0.5 11.6 2.7 46.3 0.6 14.1 2.7 43.1 0.7 14.2 2.7 44.8 0.7 15.5 2.8 44.3 0.7 16.5 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11