Exercises of PROBABILITY Properties of Probability 1) Compute the probability that the winning number in roulette is: a) between 6 and

nd 12 (included) or strictly greater than 25; b) a multiple of 6 or a multiple of 7; c) greater or equal to 18 or a multiple of 3. 2) Let A and B two events of the sample space S such that P(A) = 0.6 and P(B) = 0.9. Can A and B be disjoint? and independent? Conditional probabilities 3) A fair coin is ipped 4 times. Consider the events A = { 2 ips land on head and 2 land on tail (in any order) } B = { the rst toss lands on head }. Are the events A and B independent? 4) Among 300 people, 170 speak only German, 90 only English and 40 German and English. If we randomly choose one person, compute the probability that he/she speaks German given he/she speaks English. Multiplication rule 5) We roll 2 fair dice, compute a) the probability the sum is 2; b) the probability the sum is 7. 6) We choose 3 cards at random from a deck of 52, compute a) the probability that the 3 cards are K,Q or J, assuming that you replace the card in the deck before choosing the next; b) the probability that the 3 cards are K,Q or J, if you choose the cards all at once. Partition rule 7) Choose randomly 3 cards from a deck of 52, compute a) the probability that the 3 cards are K,Q or J, of the same suit assuming that you replace the card in the deck before drawing the next; b) the probability that the 3 cards are K,Q or J, of the same suit assuming that you do not replace the card in the deck before drawing the next; c) the probability that two cards are K,Q or J, and the other is an ace (independently of the order). 8) A cabinet has three drawers. In the rst drawer there are two rings of gold and one of silver, in the second there is a gold ring and three of silver, in the third drawer there are two silver rings. Compute the probability that opening a drawer and pulling out a ring at random a gold ring will be chosen. Bayes Formula 9) Consider two externally indistinguishable urns. The rst contains 2 red balls, 2 white balls and 2 green balls, while the second contains 1 red, 4 white and 1 green balls. We choose an urn, and draw from it two balls with replacement. Calculate the probability that a) we chose the rst urn, given the rst ball drawn is green; 1

b) the second ball drawn is white if the rst is white. 10) We have 20 ries, 5 of type A, 8 of type B and 7 type C. Knowing that the probability that those of type A hit the target is 0.8, while the same probability is 0.5 and 0.3 respectively for those of type B and C: a) what is the probability to hit the target at the rst shot if we choose a rie at random; b) given that the target has been hit, determine the probability that a type A rie has been used. 11) Consider 100 students, of which 50 are Italian, 20 English and 30 German. English is spoken by the 50 % of the italians, by the 100 % of the English students and by the 80 % of the German students. We choose one student at random. Given he/she speaks English, what is the probability he/she is Italian? Mixed topics 12) 2 cards are selected (with replacement) from a deck of 52 cards. Compute the probability that a) the suit of the rst is club and of the second is diamond; b) the suit of one of the two cards is club and of the other is diamond; c) at least one of the cards is a diamond or a club. 13) Repeat the previous exercise, assuming you choose the cards without replacement. 14) Suppose you roll two dice. Find the probability the sum is a) 2; b) 11; c) strictly less than 5. 15) Suppose you are drawing the rst number (from 90) at Bingo and let: A = {the drawn number is even} B = {the number is less or equal 20}. Are A and B independent? 16) Suppose you roll two dice n times, what is the probability (6,6) occurs at least once? 17) You toss a coin three times and you get two heads and one tail. Compute the probability the result of the rst toss is head. 18) You tossed a coin four times and three times head and once tail occurred. Compute the probability the results of the rst two tosses were a) the rst head and the second tail; b) one of the two head and the other tail. 19) 6 employees and 5 workers work in a shop. Three of the 6 employees are male, while 3 of the workers are female. If you randomly choose a man, what is the probability that he is a worker? 20) An urn contains 9 white balls and 4 black balls. Compute the probability that choosing 5 balls (without replacement) at least one is black. Repeat the exercise assuming you replace the ball before each drawing. 21) Consider 120 engines: 45 are produced by the factory F1 , 39 by the factory F2 and 36 by F3 . Let pi , i = 1, 2, 3, the probability that an engine coming from Fi pass the test, where p1 = 0.95, p2 = 0.87, p3 = 0.90. Compute the probability that a randomly chosen engine passes the test. 2

22) In the previous exercise, suppose the chosen engine does not pass the test. What is the probability that it has been produced by the factory F1 ? 23) In a community of 100 people there are 70 men and 30 women. You know that the 60% of the men and the 40% of the women smoke. a) Choose randomly a person of the community. What is the probability the person is a smoker? b) Compute the probability that given the person is a smoker, the person is a man. 24) A hunter has in his game bag 12 animals. 3 of the 12 animals are forbidden to hunt. A park ranger takes out 3 of the 12 animals choosing randomly from the game bag. Compute the probability that the park ranger does not nd any of the forbidden animals. 25) You choose 3 times a card from a deck of 52. What is the probability of choosing 3 times a card of the same suit and from J,Q or K? 26) In order to write and print the copies for the examination I need a working computer and a working photocopier. In the oce there are 3 computers and 2 photocopiers. Each computer is functional with probability 0.9, while each of the photocopiers is functional with probability 0.8. Compute the probability I can not prepare the copies of the examination. 27) In a garden there are daises of two dierent types, say I and II. The probability you nd a type I daisy is 80% and a type II daisy is 20%. Find the smallest value of n, number of daises you should pick up, in order to have that the probability that there is at least one of type II is greater than 0.9 ? Other exercises Exercise 1 Three externally indistinguishable coins have respectively probability 1 , 2 landing on head: You choose randomly one of the three coins and you ip it for several times. Compute: a) the probability of no head in the rst two ips; b) the probability of exactly one head in the rst two ips; c) the probability that the coin is fair given the rst three ips are tails; d) the probability head occurs at the second ip given the rst ip landed on head.
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Exercise 2 An urn contains 3 white balls and 2 black balls. a) Compute the probability that drawing three balls (without replacement) at least one is black. b) Repeat (a) in the case you replace the balls before each drawing. c) Let N be the number of drawings (without replacement) you need to have the rst black ball. Find and draw the distribution function of N . Then compute the expected value of N . Exercise 3 Two urns are externally indistinguishable. The rst contains 2 red, 2 white and 4 green balls. The second urn contains 2 red, 4 white and 2 green balls. Choose an urn at random and draw 2 balls without replacement. Compute the probability that a) Two green balls are drawn. b) The urn we chose is the rst given that the rst ball is green; c) The two drawn balls are of dierent color. Exercise 4 We shot three times towards the same target. The probability to hit the target at the rst, respectively at the second and at the third shot are respectively p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.5, p3 = 0.7. Compute the probability a) of hitting the target only once in three shots; 3

b) of hitting the target at most once in three shots; c) of hitting the target at least once in three shots; d) of hitting the target at the third shot, given that the target was hit only once. Exercise 5 We roll a fair die 3 times. Compute the probability of: a) the result of rst roll is not divisible by 3; b) the sum of the results of the rst two rolls is not divisible by 3; c) neither the result of rst roll nor the sum of the results of the rst two rolls is divisible by 3; d) neither the result of rst roll, nor the sum of the results of the rst two rolls or of the three rolls is divisible by 3.