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StockSmart
Weekly Review
KSE-30 12,373.39 12,755.54 -3.00% Allshare 9,983.28 10,238.21 -2.49% US$bn 40.01 41.07 -2.59%
AKD Research
research@akdsecurities.net 009221 111 253 111
Indices KSE-100 This week 14,230.49 Last week 14,612.28 Change -2.61% Indices KMI-30 This week 24,519.59 Last week 25,167.03 Change -2.57% Mkt Cap. This week Last week Change PkRbn 3,635.14 3,730.49 -2.56%
Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares) This week 236.95 Last week 335.18 Change -29.31%
The KSE-100 Index lost 2.61% to close at 14,230.49 points with the bulk of selling pressure coming in the last two days. We attribute this weakness to 1) selloff in intl markets, including commodities, which saw E&Ps take a breather, 2) pre-Budget jitters with news flow pointing towards higher taxation for Banks, 3) SECP clarification that the Anti Money Laundering Act is not superseded by recent changes to the CGT regime and 4) a cooling off in Pak-US relations with negative ramifications for foreign inflows. That said, there were selected outperformers within the AKD Universe these included AICL (+9.6%WoW), PTC (+4.8%WoW on ICH prospects) and EFOODS (+4.3%WoW despite closing at its lower circuit in the last two days). PSO (+3.0%WoW) also gained following reported release of PkR72bn in the energy chain. The heftiest decliners within our coverage included PSMC (-11.4%WoW on fears regarding Budgetary measures), UBL (-10.0%WoW) and ABL (-9.0%WoW); the two banking stocks in for sharp profit taking after outperforming recently. Average daily volume this week registered at 237mn shares, down 29%WoW, with the top three volume leaders being PTC, DGKC and LOTPTA.
Top-5 Volum e Leaders Sym bol PTC DGKC LOTPTA JSCL FATIMA : : : : : Volum e (m n) 188.15 125.36 84.76 77.37 65.28
250,000 200,000
EFOODS
LOTPTA
ENGRO
PTC
7-May
8-May
9-May
10-May
11-May
Outlook
Pre-Budget news flow is likely to continue capturing investor attention next week earlier market murmurs regarding a potential reduction in corporate income tax rate appear to have been overtaken by a more wary stance. At the same time, the market should also be very interested in unfolding dynamics viz. US-Pakistan relations, particularly if some word comes through on the reopening of NATO supply routes. For the Telecom sector in particular, a formal announcement on ICH formation/ASR rates revision will be keenly awaited.
Volume (LHS)
Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies
AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange
Copyright2012 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.
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PSM C
HM B
PSO
ABL
UBL
14,000
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Source: KSE Note: Index data for May 08, 2012 not available.
15:27
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Country
PE(x) 7.08 10.67 11.98 13.23 14.25 11.06 8.76
Bloomberg Code KSE100 Index CSEALL Index SET Index JCI Index FBMKLCI Index PCOMP Index VNINDEX Index HSI Index FSSTI Index IBX Index RTSSTD Index SENSEX Index SHCOMP Index SPX Index INDU Index CCMP Index UKX Index DAX Index DSM Index ADSMI Index DFMGI Index KWSEIDX Index MSM30 Index SASEIDX Index MXEF Index MXFM Index
11-May-12 14,230 5,109 1,191 4,114 1,584 5,158 480 19,965 2,883 20,769 9,559 16,293 2,395 1,358 12,855 2,934 5,509 6,476 8,548 2,478 1,515 6,447 5,746 7,222 981 473
4-May-12 14,612 5,375 1,227 4,217 1,591 5,298 476 21,086 2,991 21,037 9,627 16,831 2,452 1,369 13,038 2,956 5,655 6,561 8,670 2,501 1,582 6,479 5,862 7,546 1,013 479
WoW
CYTD
EPS Growth Pakistan 13% Indonesia 16% Malaysia 17% Philippines 10% Vitenam 13% India 14% China 17% % Pakistan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vitenam India China ROE 21.84 20.42 15.02 15.40 23.20 16.92 15.64
Pakistan Srilanka Thailand Jakarta Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Hong Kong Singapore Brazil Russia India China S&P DJIA NASDAQ Composite UK German Qatar Abu Dhabi Dubai Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia MSCI EM MSCI FM
-2.61% 25.40% -4.96% -15.90% -2.97% 16.16% -2.43% 7.64% -0.42% 3.50% -2.63% 17.98% 0.79% 36.57% -5.32% 8.30% -3.58% 8.96% -1.27% 5.40% -0.71% -0.35% -3.20% 5.42% -2.33% 8.89% -0.81% 7.98% -1.41% 5.22% -0.77% 12.61% -2.58% -1.13% -1.30% 9.80% -1.40% -2.63% -0.93% 3.16% -4.24% 11.94% -0.50% 10.88% -1.98% 0.90% -4.30% 12.52% -3.19% 7.02% -1.32% 1.20% Source: Bloomberg
WoW 0.86% 0.05% 0.01% -1.18% -0.48% -1.42% -1.46% 1.19% 0.37% 1.20% CYTD 1.34% 11.14% -2.30% -3.24% 3.77% -1.31% 1.38% -0.46% 0.60% 2.08%
SPOT Dollar Index USD/PkR USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD CHF/USD CAD/USD USD/KRW CNY/USD
11-May-12 80.185 90.845 79.860 1.293 1.607 1.004 0.784 0.929 1.000 1,148 6.314
4-May-12 79.498 90.800 79.850 1.308 1.615 1.018 0.796 0.918 0.996 1,134 6.293
Chg +/0.687 0.045 0.010 -0.016 -0.008 -0.015 -0.012 0.011 0.004 13.630 0.021
Source: Bloomberg
TRJ-CRB Index
360 350 340 330 320 310
Commodities
SPOT TRJ-CRB Nymex (WTI) ICE Brent N. Gas Henry Hub Cotton Gold Units Points US$/bbl. US$/bbl. US$/Mmbtu USd/Pound US$/Tr.Oz US$/Tr.Oz US$/MT US$/Oz US$/MT 11-May-12 292.62 96.06 111.66 2.36 93.35 1582.74 28.63 8207 1465 98.65 4-May-12 297.15 98.49 113.16 2.31 97.9 1642.22 30.3675 8253.5 1526.25 98.65
300
Sliver
290 May-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-11 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Aug-11 Apr-12
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill Differential
(%) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.05
(2.0) (4.0) (6.0) Oct-11 Aug-10 May-12 Feb-07 Nov-08 Sep-07 Apr-08 Mar-11 Jul-06 Jun-09 Jan-10
0.95 0.85 0.75 May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
2,331 1,931
NBFCs, 3.55
(15.00)
(3,689) 9-May 10-May 11-May
(US$mn)
Jul-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
May-12
KSE-100
AKD Universe
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Jul-05
May-06
Mar-07
Jan-08
Nov-08
Oct-09
Aug-10
Jun-11
May-12
Jul-05
May-06
Mar-07
Jan-08
Nov-08
Oct-09
Aug-10
Jun-11
May-12
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
MTL
490.0
583.6
Accumulate
54.8
34.5
56.6
8.9
14.2
8.6
5.13
4.35
3.48
7.3
3.5
5.8
DGKC LUCK
44.5 127.0
48.7 148.4
Accumulate Accumulate
0.4 12.3
7.4 20.1
8.0 24.8
114.1 10.3
6.0 6.3
5.6 5.1
0.65 1.48
0.58 1.30
0.53 1.14
0.0 3.2
4.5 6.3
4.5 8.8
ULEVER EFOODS
7,201.2 69.8
5,213 52.3
Sell Sell
308.0 1.2
369.8 1.9
435.1 3.1
23.4 58.9
19.5 36.3
4.3 0.0
4.9 0.0
5.8 0.0
SSGC
21.1
38.6
Buy
5.4
5.7
5.9
3.9
3.7
3.6
1.05
0.86
0.73
9.0
8.5
11.7
AICL
78.0
80.6
Neutral
5.6
6.3
7.6
13.8
12.4
10.3
0.81
0.77
0.72
0.0
9.7
12.3
HUBC KAPCO
38.3 43.5
50.2 52.0
Buy Accumulate
4.8 7.4
5.9 7.5
6.3 8.1
8.0 5.9
6.5 5.8
6.1 5.4
1.41 1.56
1.31 1.50
1.20 1.43
14.4 14.9
14.8 15.5
15.7 16.8
Fixed Line Telecommunication Pakistan Telecommunication PTC Personal Goods Nishat Mills Banks Allied Bank Limited Bank AlFalah Habib Bank Limited Habib Metropolitan Bank MCB Bank Limited National Bank of Pakistan United Bank Ltd
16.1
18.5
Accumulate
1.6
2.1
2.7
9.8
7.6
5.9
0.83
0.83
0.82
10.9
9.3
10.9
NML
51.7
62.4
Buy
13.8
10.0
12.6
3.8
5.2
4.1
0.51
0.48
0.44
6.4
6.4
5.8
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Construction and Materials DG Khan Cement Lucky Cement Chem icals Engro Polymer Chemicals Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited Engro Chemical Fatima Fertilizer Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. Fauji Fertilizer Company Food Producers Unilever Pakistan Limited Engro Foods Limited Gas Water & Multiutilities Sui Southern Gas company Non Life Insurance Adamjee Insurance Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Development Co. Pak Oilfields Pakistan State Oil Electricity Hub Pow er Co. Kot Addu Pow er Company HUBC KAPCO 38.32 43.52 2.4 -0.8 5.6 3.5 2.7 4.0 3.7 1.2 12.0 5.3 42.57 47.45 33.01 39.51 OGDC POL PSO 162.97 375.61 261.37 -1.0 2.1 6.3 3.4 2.7 4.0 4.5 4.7 2.7 11.4 15.2 -6.4 7.5 8.4 15.0 170.7 394.75 290.19 120.29 325.12 205.67 AICL 78.00 28.4 51.2 64.0 17.6 67.7 78 40.06 SSGC 21.10 -3.0 11.4 3.5 -0.4 9.4 25.55 16.94 ULEVER 7,201.23 69.78 23.7 45.2 35.5 85.8 28.7 173.3 41.2 182.4 29.4 208.8 7394.1 77.31 4946.4 21.8 EPCL LOTPTA ENGRO FATIMA FFBL FFC 11.98 9.53 107.99 25.06 42.86 119.97 -2.9 15.1 9.2 8.7 7.9 0.5 43.0 12.1 15.3 10.6 -8.7 -0.9 42.3 -14.8 6.4 5.3 -28.2 -3.1 5.0 -39.0 -29.1 99.5 1.9 28.4 64.8 2.8 51.4 9.3 1.0 20.3 13.23 15.62 152.32 26.89 63.67 132.23 7.23 7.9 70.75 12.28 37.67 92.73 DGKC LUCK 44.51 126.95 6.1 2.1 83.2 41.3 109.7 52.9 95.0 80.8 133.9 69.2 46.83 137.64 18.1 69.65
Fixed Line Telecom m unication Pakistan Telecommunication Personal Goods Nishat Mills Banks Allied Bank Limited Askari Bank Limited Bank AlFalah Habib Bank Limited Habib Metropolitan Bank MCB Bank Limited Meezan Bank Limited National Bank of Pakistan United Bank Ltd ABL AKBL BAFL HBL HMB MCB MEBL NBP UBL 66.81 15.10 17.35 111.25 18.50 173.98 27.90 45.58 80.98 2.8 3.1 7.9 1.1 8.4 1.1 -5.1 -5.7 7.1 18.5 56.3 39.9 0.4 5.7 4.6 40.8 30.9 32.5 14.9 59.3 46.0 5.9 -1.3 17.8 57.0 34.8 40.2 17.1 50.7 72.6 0.0 2.7 -6.8 78.8 14.2 26.7 36.4 73.2 54.2 15.4 9.5 42.2 80.6 52.9 54.6 73.39 15.99 18.44 116.54 21.77 191.43 29.86 49.65 89.94 48.67 7.62 9.41 95.95 16.18 122.36 15.14 25.39 51.27 NML 51.70 -11.6 8.8 14.7 -12.2 27.8 61.56 38.27 PTC 16.08 29.8 33.8 48.9 -5.7 54.8 17.67 9.88
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Economic Snapshot
End Month Data T-bill 3M 6M 12M PIB 10Y KIBOR 6M Discount rate % % % % % % 13.50 13.75 13.91 14.05 13.94 13.5 13.04 13.26 13.35 13.46 13.38 13.5 13.04 13.23 13.33 13.18 13.35 12.0 12.28 12.32 12.37 12.28 12.23 12.0 11.78 11.79 11.86 12.17 11.91 12.0 11.74 11.67 11.84 12.77 11.98 12.0 11.67 11.70 11.79 12.49 11.90 12.0 11.73 11.79 11.84 12.84 11.90 12.0 11.83 11.90 11.93 13.15 11.95 12.0 Units Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Inflation Headline inflation Core inflation Food inflation % % % 13.8 10.7 17.6 11.6 10.1 13.2 10.5 10.6 9.9 11.0 10.5 11.7 10.2 10.4 10.0 9.8 10.2 9.5 10.1 10.3 9.2 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.8 10.9 9.8
External Indicators Export (PBS) Import (PBS) Trade Deficit (PBS) Home Remittances Current Account US$ (mn) US$ (mn) US$ (mn) US$ (mn) US$ (mn) 2,203 3,639 (1,436) 1,096 (100) 1,964 3,806 (1,842) 1,310 (201) 1,836 3,622 (1,786) 890 (1,034) 1,896 3,607 (1,711) 1,018 (287) 1,552 3,729 (2,177) 924 (688) 1,854 4,261 (2,407) 1,080 (14) 1,953 3,649 (1,696) 1,111 (364) 2,034 3,462 (1,428) 1,157 (260) 2,001 3,497 (1,496) 1,143 142
Banking Sector Deposits Advances Investments PkR (bn) PkR (bn) PkR (bn) 5,344 3,418 2,593 13.76 5.88 7.88 5,365 3,412 2,657 13.65 6.06 7.59 5,418 3,415 2,764 13.81 6.18 7.63 5,354 3,323 2,934 13.68 6.01 7.67 5,416 3,357 2,962 13.52 5.99 7.53 5,875 3,493 2,970 13.46 5.88 7.58 5,682 3,493 3,047 13.25 5.88 7.37 5,717 3,567 3,037 13.15 5.85 7.30 5,920 3,607 3,089 n.a n.a n.a
Public Finance Tax collection Direct taxes Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) PkR (mn) PkR (mn) 112,275 28,966 83,309 120,506 32,069 88,437 148,023 63,507 84,516 126,408 39,659 86,749 131,849 45,421 86,428 201,676 102,945 98,731 136,003 41,580 94,423 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Currency Reserves USDPkR - Interbank US$ (mn) PkR/USD 18,295 86.05 18,066 86.53 17,331 87.55 17,065 87.11 16,728 87.07 17,026 89.55 16,843 90.27 16,411 90.73 16,442 90.80
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.
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E-mail
naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net usman.zahid@akdsecurities.net ayub.ansari@akdsecurities.net anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net naeem.javid@akdsecurities.net qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net azher.quli@akdsecurities.net nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net
Coverage
E&P, Oil Marketing Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks Cement & Power Fertilizer, Chemical & Telecom Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks Textile, Fertilizer Technical Analysis Research Production Research Production Research Production Library Operations
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