VIETNAM COASTAL ZONE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Nguyen Ngoc Huan Center for Consultancy and Technical Support of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment 57 Nguyen Du Str, Hanoi, Vietnam E-mail: hmec@ipt.vn

ABSTRACT From November 1994 to April 1996 a project had been conducted which assessed the vulnerability of the entire coastal zone of Vietnam to the impacts of accelerated sea level rise due to global warming and outlined towards integrated coastal zone management in Vietnam. The project was conducted according to the common Methodology recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change (IPCC). The project was implemented by a Vietnamese project team working closely together with a European team of Polish and Dutch experts in coastal zone management. During the study, extensive data on physical, socio-economic and institutional characteristics of the coastal zone formed the basis of GIS analyses for determined areas with different land use types inundated under various flood scenarios. Further analyses provided loss and risk figures for land use types, population and capital value. Future development trends as well as institutional, organisational and legislative arrangements for coastal zone management were also reviewed, and the implications were analysed. People, capital value and habitats in the low lying areas of Vietnam were presently at high risk. The impacts of possible climate change will further aggravate the pressing situation. Appropriate measures need national and international cooperation. The findings showed the high sensitivity of Vietnam to a rise in mean sea level which could severely impact development and growth. Vietnams vulnerability was ranked as critical and costs of full protection measures were seen to be immense. Most sensitive areas, from a view point of combining physical, socio-economic and environmental vulnerability, are the Mekong and Red River Deltas, the Ho Chi Minh city, Vungtau area and the Hue, Da Nang area. Recommendations for increased momentum towards integrated coastal zone management have been made with associated actions to strengthen local capabilities for management. 1. Introduction A project titled Vietnam Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment and Fst towards Integrated Coastal Zone Management (Vietnam VA Project) has been conducted in Vietnam from November 1994 to April 1996. The aim of the WA-Project is to assess the vulnerability of whole coastal zone of Vietnam to increased sea level rise and related effects due to climate change. This assessment as focused on the institutional, economical and technical aspects and components. 2. Present Situation without Climate Change Impacts Under the conditions of current climate and sea level, if no significant upgrading of protective measured is undertaken, situation is as follows; USD 720 million of capital value is presently at risk by annual flooding and in 30 years this figure may rise more than 10 times due to development and capital investment in the risk areas. These figures represent 3 and 5% of the annual GDP in 1995 and 2025. Based on die 1995 population, the Mekong Delta and die Red River Delta account for 70% and 20%, respectively, of the national population at risk by annual flooding. Based on the 2025 population and current development projection, the number of people at risk would rise by about 60%. A huge area of wetlands is at risk at present due to degradation by human activity rather than by excessive high waters.

Here at risk means at risk of annual flooding. At risk values can be calculated as the chance of annual flooding times the area, population or value flooded by a specific scenario for sea level rise. For example, 1000 ha flooded every 10 years indicates 1000 X 0.1 = 100 ha at risk. At loss means that the chance of annual flooding is 100%. 1000 ha flooded annually would be 1000 ha at loss. Capital value is the total accumulated value of die land and its properties. A national plan for protection (without sea level rise) has been formulated by the Vietnamese Government. The strategy, which includes dike strengthening and upgrading, putting houses on higher levels and additional pumping measures will cost USD 6.5 billion, about one-thd of the present GDP. However the real annual cost would depend on the implementation time by cost spreading. If the national plan is carried out, it can be expected that losses and risks will be reduced considerably to about 10% of die present values. 3. Result of Climate Change Case Climate change effects may include changes in storm intensity and frequency, rainfall patterns and other meteorological changes. More predictable and tangible will increase in mean sea level due to thermal expansion of the ocean water, melting of glacial and polar ice, etc. This report limits itself to the impacts of sea level rise in the coastal zone as a first assessment. It should be noted that the other types of impacts can be important as well. It is estimated that the sea level will rise at a rate between 0.3 and 1.0 m over the next 100 years. For the analysis aim rise was chosen as a base for preliminary assessment of impacts and responses. Taking into account the most recent predictions, sea level rise over the next century may not exceed 0.5 m but the unknowns associated with predicting changing storm patterns and intensities support the use of the 1 m scenario, (e.g. in the Netherlands, a 10% increase in storm intensity results in a requirement for protection measures equivalent to an additional sea level rise of about 50 cm). For other values of sea level rise more detailed analysis is necessary, but an interpolation on a basis of present information gives some insight. With 1 m sea level rise the following impacts will occur when no significant upgrading of protective measures takes place (1995 figures used as basis): The impact is not limited to a narrow coastal zone but will even be more serious further inland. This is caused by the rise of river beds and backwater effects which has much larger influence in the riverine area than near the sea where the river usually very wide and deep due to tidal action. 17 million people will be subject to annual flooding. Over 14 million of these will be in the Mekong Delta provinces. USD 17 billion of capital value will be lost by annual flooding, which is about 80% of the yearly GDP. At a 30 year development scenario, the loss of capital value will be close to USD 270 billion which would be even higher than the projected GDP at that time. The damage increases faster than GDP. Major low-lying areas will be subject to increase in flooding. If sea level rises one meter, and if no additional protection measures are taken, about 40,000 km2 will be flooded annually. The wetlands affected and threatened by sea level rise could be 1700 km2, which is about 60% of Vietnam's coastal wetlands. Most threatened areas will be the Minh Hai and Yung Tau- HCHC mangrove areas, the Xuan Thuy RAMSAR site at the Red River mouth, since these cannot migrate landward. Wetland losses cannot be prevented by the protection sfrategies. Degradation by human activities and other causes will act on top of this and makes the situation more serious. A protection strategy against lm sea level rise involving dike raising, additional pumping and beach nourishment will cost additional USD 2.4 billion, assuming that the development plan is already completed. This will bring the total protection strategy cost to approximately USD 9 billion.

4. The Implementation Feasibility of Response Measures

In assessing the relevant actions and priorities, the Common Methodology of IPCC was used for a qualitative review of the implementation feasibility. 4.1 Legal/institutional/organizational aspects Legal, institutional, organizational requirements are at present a serious obstacle for integrated coastal zone management in Vietnam. There is a lack of formal legislation governing activities and developments in the coastal zone. Although many organizations can contribute to a better understanding of processes and problems in the coastal zone, coordination and communication is often weak, duplication of efforts is often encountered and no clear framework of roles exists. Responsibilities for future activities lay beyond the competence of the hierarchical structures in the present government system. There is a high degree of vertical decision-making structure with a low degree of horizontal communication, consensus and solutions at lower authority levels. On the other hand, it is observed that professional and administrative staff are well motivated and knowledgeable with excellent organizational capabilities. Working conditions and facilities are reasonable. 4.2 Economic and financial aspects This is the most serious of all problems. The present capital spent on coastal defences is far short of that required even without sea level rise. Improving protection against flooding and coastal erosion is crucial for the development of infrastructure and industrialization in the coastal zone. However with present funding levels the danger of flooding is fast becoming an obstacle to development. Consequently agricultural targets may receive pressure, which may lead to regional food shortages. Changes of land use practice and economic activities of the coastal population as a result of unsafe coastal protection systems may well cause food shortages. Protection measures can be implemented on a cost-benefit basis and further work is needed to define areas where even small scale investments and improvements can deliver large returns in terms of increased safety and productivity. 4.3 Technical aspects Technical levels of staff and facilities for coastal zone management are reasonable and comprise a sound basis for improving the knowledge of natural processes and engineering in the coastal zone. Data availability is not a serious problem in the sense that some good data exists, but exchange of data and readiness for distribution is limited. Measurements of coastal parameters such as wave action and beach erosion rates are still poorly covered although fragmentarily being addressed in some joint- funding programme. An important contribution to the critical vulnerability of Vietnam is the need to increase pumping and putting houses on a higher level. Particularly in the Mekong Delta, raising houses is only feasible in a very piecemeal way, and will probably occur in makeshift fashion by locals using own resources of labour and materials. Increasing pumping and raising embankments to lengthen the summer crop season has conducted very successful, but this has to be carefully managed to avoid serious upstream or downstream hydraulic and water quality problems. It also might cause some land subsidence when drainage increases along with a decrease in flooding. 4.4 Cultural and social aspects of implementation feasibility In general, the social-cultural climate in Vietnam is dominated by the political structure which is very strong and well-organized at all levels. This is partly a help to achieve the level of organisation needed to communicate and participate in coastal zone management. However, freedom to move across disciplinary boundaries and to be innovative and communicative is not easy in the present cultural setting. Horizontal consultation at all levels, which is so important for coastal zone management, is uncertain, tentative and inhibited by years of vertical structured authority. The present legislative/institutional/organisational setting presents a high vulnerability because of the lack of specific emphasis and focus on the coastal zone as an integrated entity. From the financial perspective the vulnerability related to flood protection is critical since the required funds are difficult to allocate. Technical feasibility is not a serious issue for Vietnam as the education level is high on an

5. Overall Vulnerability to Climate Change

average and many well-trained and motivated specialists are presents. This is an opportunity rather than a constraint for implementation of measures. The enormous funding required, even for upgrading of coastal protection without sea level rise, is a very heavy burden on Vietnam. It cannot be expected that, given the present budget levels, the present plans for coastal zone flood prevention, which are not accounting for accelerated sea-level rise, is implemented at a significant scale. This means that unsafe dike levels and frequent flooding problems will persist as long as the funds are lacking. There are indications, however, that more budge will become available for flood alleviating measures and flood protection schemes. Such allocations are usually very feasible because of the favourable benefit-cost ratio. The geographical character of Vietnam with its long coastline and narrow hinterland creates an exceptionally high ratio of coastline and land area. Flooding in the coastal zone is mainly a result of high river discharges, elevated sea levels during typhoons and weak dikes. Flooding is already a serious obstacle to economic and demographic development especially in the centtal coast and Mekong Delta area. In the Red River Delta, water-logging, salinity intrusion and dike maintenance are serious problems. Increasingly, industry will replace agriculture as greatest contributor to GDP, and within 30 years the contribution from agriculture is expected to fall from about 35% to 10%. This will prompt a prioritising of investments towards land development in flood prone areas and towards expansion of industry in flood free areas. It is not by coincidence that the powerhouse of Vietnam's present industrial growth, the Southern Focal Economic Zone near Ho Chi Minh City, is in one of the most flood free parts of the coastal zone ofVietnam. There is a danger that the focus on rapid industrialisation will absorb too much of the available funds, which is needed to protect and sustain the required agricultural yields. In an earlier global assessment of the vulnerability to sea level rise (1992) Vietnam ranked in the highest vulnerability (to sea level rise) of all rice producing countries. Estimates indicate up to a 20% loss when no adaptive measures would be taken. This underlines once more the need for measures to maintain and increase a sustainable production. 6. Conclusion People, capital investments and habitats in the low-lying areas of Vietnam are presently at high risk. The impacts of possible climate change will further aggravate the pressing situation. Appropriate measures need national and international cooperation. Recommendations The Vietnam Vulnerability Assessment (WA) Project has identified the Vulnerability of Vietnam to sea level rise and priorities for formulating responses. The Project has created momentum to strengthen the cooperation between authorities on national, province, district and local levels. As such the project has envolved from a climate change-orientated analysis towards a broader scope of development problems in the coastal zone. It has thereby contributed to the awareness of the need for integrated coastal zone management. Integrated coastal zone management is the most appropriate process resolve current and long term coastal development issues, including consideration of habitat loss, the quality of terrestrial and aquatic coastal ecosystems, hydrological changes, and responses or adaptation to sea level rise and other effects of global change. Sustainable development in Vietnam's coastal areas will be stimulated and enhanced by: Full inclusion in the decision-making of the above environment aspects; Strategic planning of the coastal zone on the national level, coordination on the provincial level, and implementation on the local level; Both vertical and horizontal linking in the policy-making process at all levels. Decision-making and implementation of decisions will be improved by mobilizing all existing knowledge about the coastal natural system, socio-economic development and existing economic, physical and environmental plans. In light of the above, the following priorities have been identified to further develop Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Vietnam. To develop a Vietnamese framework for integrated coastal zone management to address among other

tilings the impact of insufficient coastal protection on agriculture production and industrial development plans; To explore and define the appropriate institutional arrangement of Integrated Coastal Zone Management, streamlining existing procedures and avoiding duplication, rather than creating new institutes; To develop and maintain relevant thematic and geographical databases and information systems including GIS, accessible to coastal zone policy makers and managers; To identify, elaborate, prepare and implement local programmes for integrated coastal zone management in "hotspot" coastal areas. Typical concrete issues and problems which have been identified during the three pilot studies of this project are: producing dike safety standard and design manuals for coastal defence; establishing monitoring programs to record the conditions of flood protection; sustainable harbour development e.g. in Ba ria-Vung Tau province; sustainable aquaculture development around Tam Giang-Cau Hai lagoon; coastal sediment deficits in relation to river basin management and coastal erosion in Nam Ha province To acquire data and to develop tools to support the above. To arrange international exchange, training courses and on-the-job training for ICZM. To identify funding possibilities for coastal development. Finally, the Vietnam Vulnerability Assessment Project has led towards the domain of Integrated Coastal Zone Management. The project has been recognised and appreciated within Vietnam and constitutes a firtile contribution to further development. The challenge is to capitalise on this result, to collaborate with other countries and agencies and to effectively establish Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Vietnam. References Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huan, HMECjHMS, Government of Vietnam; G. Tom, Frederic Harris, The Hague, The Netherlands ; F.J.M Hoozemans, Delft Hydraulics, Delft, The Netherlands; Dr. R.B Zeidler, LBW-PAN, Gdansk, Poland ( 1996): Vietnam Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment.