Global warming From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, search This article is about the change

in climate that Earth is currently experiencing. For general discussion of how Earth's climate can change, see Climate change. Global mean land-ocean temperature change from 18802011, relative to the 19511980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS The map shows the 10-year average (20002009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 19511980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. Source: NASA Earth Observatory[1] Fossil fuel related CO2 emissions compared to five of IPCC's emissions scenarios. The dips are related to global recessions. Data from IPCC SRES scenarios; Data spreadsheet included with International Energy Agency's "CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2010 Highlights"; and Supplemental IEA data. Image source: Skeptical Science Global warming is the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century and its projected continuation. Since the early 20th century, Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F), with about two thirds of the increase occurring since 1980.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain that most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels.[3][4][5][6] These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all major industrialized nations.[7][A] Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2 to 5.2 F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest.[8] The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[9][10] An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.[11] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme-weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in crop yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, with projections being more robust in some areas than others.[12] If global mean temperature increases to 4

C (7.2 F) above preindustrial levels, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.[13] Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[14] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) climate change.[15] Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions[16]:10[17][18][19]:9 and to assist in adaptation to global warming.[16]:13[19]:10[20][21] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required,[22] and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 C (3.6 F) relative tothe pre-industrial level.[22][B] A 2011 report of analyses by the United Nations Environment Programme[23] and International Energy Agency[24] suggest that efforts as of the early 21st century to reduce emissions may be inadequately stringent to meet the UNFCCC's 2 C target.

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions from climate proxies, each smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid in black. Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[25][26][27] The Earth's average surface temperature, expressed as a linear trend, rose by 0.740.18 C over the period 19062005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.130.03 C per decade, versus 0.070.02 C per decade). The urban heat island effect is very small, estimated to account for less than 0.002 C of warming per decade since 1900.[28] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 C (0.22 and 0.4 F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[29] Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[30][31][32] Estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year,

however, "the error estimate for individual years ... is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years."[33] The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 explains that, "The 2010 nominal value of +0.53 C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52 C) and 1998 (+0.51 C), although the differences between the three years are not statistically significant..."[34] NOAA graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 19502011, showing the El Nio-Southern Oscillation Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because global temperatures are affected by the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the strongest El Nio in the past century occurred during that year.[35] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[36][37] 2010 was also an El Nio year. On the low swing of the oscillation, 2011 as an La Nia year was cooler but it was still the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880. Of the 13 warmest years since 1880, 11 were the years from 2001 to 2011. Over the more recent record, 2011 was the warmest La Nia year in the period from 1950 to 2011, and was close to 1997 which was not at the lowest point of the cycle.[38] Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 C per decade against 0.13 C per decade).[39] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[40] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[41] The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 C (0.9 F) would still occur.[42] Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2). This graph, known as the Keeling Curve, shows the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from 19582008. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2. External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[43]:0 Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and at present are in an overall cooling trend which would be expected to lead towards an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures.[44]