Research- Design Standardization for Integrating Micro Hydropower into Existing Infrastructure and Utility Systems Advances in technology

for the generation and interconnection of micro hydropower have increased the applicability of micro hydropower as a significant source of power generation. A memorandum of understanding between the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and The State of Colorado (FERC, The State of Colorado, MOU Between FERC and The State of Colorado Through The Governors Energy Office to Streamline and Simplify the Authorization of Small Scale Hydropower Projects) has been adopted to simplify the regulatory review of micro hydropower projects located in constrained waterways. This regulatory change will likely encourage the development of small hydropower projects. One study estimated that the power potential in Colorado from the combined capacity of several small hydropower projects is more than 1,400MW. The United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) recently researched hydropower resource potential at existing USBR sites, (USBR, Draft Hydropower Resource Assessment at Existing Reclamation Facilities, release in 2011). This effort included development of a tool to assess the hydropower potential for each existing USBR site. In addition, ongoing research funded by Colorados Advancing Colorados Renewable Energy Economy (ACRE) program, will estimate the power generation available specifically from existing, low head irrigation infrastructure (Lindsay George, Applegate Group, Daniel Zimmerle, Colorado State University, Low Head Hydro Potential in Colorado). The feasibility of implementing micro hydropower projects into these existing irrigation facilities is highly dependent on local site conditions. Early results from the study indicate that irrigation hydropower sites may be grouped into a relatively small set of categories, each of which has similar implementation challenges and potential. If this finding can be confirmed, there exists the possibility to develop a standardized engineering design for each category, reducing engineering costs, risks, and implementation time for irrigation hydropower projects. The goal of my proposed study is to (a) identify a small number of site categories which represent a substantial potential for hydropower, (b) develop a high-level, standardized design for each category, by identifying and parameterizing a finite number of controlling site variables, (c) classifying or selecting applicable technologies, (d) modeling costs sensitivity for each parameter. A techno-economic decision making model will be developed to identify the most cost effective method to design a micro hydropower system based upon weightings of the controlling parameters for each site. The end result will be an engineered pre-design that predetermines which technologies are most applicable to the specific site design and optimize the engineering of each site for the highest quality and most cost effective solution. The model will build upon the similar program created by USBR, but focus more specifically on small (micro) hydropower sites. The program will guide the user to a cost effective design based on the developed engineering standard. The model will be tested using specific case studies. The engineering analysis involved in standardizing the design criteria will justify a step and repeat process for sites with common characteristics, thus reducing overall engineering costs for individual projects.

This work will leverage the USBR model and ACRE report to identify controlling site parameters and resulting engineering design. However, the proposed project is unique in that it is directed specifically at an un-exploited hydropower resource small sources in irrigation systems and applies a systems approach to reduce capital costs of micro hydropower development through the standardization of the engineering process. The result of this research will be directly applicable to advancing hydropower in the United States.

Research- A Methodology for Assessing the Value of Integrating Hydropower and Wind Generation The goal of this research is to develop and demonstrate a methodology to assess the potential value of integrating conventional and pumped-storage hydropower with wind generation. The methodology will be applied to a suite of realistic models of systems with various hydrologic conditions, wind scenarios, power generation sources, and power demand scenarios. Extrapolating from the results of these diverse models will provide high-level guidelines and screening for potential wind integration scenarios. Conventional hydropower has the ability to ramp up or down relatively quickly. In addition pumped-storage hydropower has the capability to store excess energy from wind generation then utilize that energy at any time that wind is unable to meet its portion of the system load. These characteristics potentially make hydropower the ideal balancing reserve for the variability in net load induced by wind and enhance its contribution to a sustainable energy portfolio. Providing regulating and load-following reserves for wind variability, however, could reduce the overall value of hydropower by reducing its capacity to provide valuable ancillary services, increasing wear on hydropower units and forcing hydro units to reduce generation during high-value, onpeak periods and then either spill or generate during lower value, off-peak periods. It is also important to consider that essentially all hydropower reservoirs serve multiple water resource management objectives and the impacts of integration with wind generation could compromise a systems ability to meet these non- power objectives. All of these factors must be considered when assessing the actual net value of integrating hydropower and wind generation. The need exists for a transparent methodology to determine the net value of wind integration that maintains fidelity in modeling a wide variety of systems, particularly when realistic operational policy constraints faced by project operators are considered. In this research, a set of models will be developed of hydropower systems using RiverWare, a river, reservoir and hydropower management tool developed at the University of Colorados Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES). RiverWare is used for hydropower optimization, while providing transparency both in the physical process methods and in the formulation of operating policy. The set of models that will be generated will span a variety of hydrologic conditions representative of systems in both the western and eastern United States. Included will be run-of-river and storage reservoirs, water-limited systems and systems with

abundant water, systems dominated by both power concerns and non-power constraints, and systems both with and without pumped-storage hydropower facilities. Various wind, load and power mix scenarios will then be integrated into the models. Comparisons will be made between the scenarios without wind and with various levels of wind generation. Factors that will be examined will include total economic value of the energy produced by different generation sources, changes in the number of starts and stops of hydropower units, changes in ramping patterns, variations in reservoir elevations and stream flows, and the ability to meet all power requirements and non-power constraints. In addition to the detailed results for specific models, the modeling suite will provide a means to estimate the results for other modeling combinations. Sensitivity analysis and extrapolation of the results will provide a high-level estimate of the value of other potential wind integration scenarios, which can be used to screen potential scenarios. The most promising scenarios can be evaluated in more detail by extending the model suite to include the specific cases of interest. Research will be carried out at CADSWES under the direction of Dr. Edith Zagona, with participation also by Timothy Magee (Operations Research expert).

Research- Economic Feasibility of Pumped Storage Hydropower in Systems with Seasonally Low Flows This project will develop an optimization model for pumped storage hydropower as a multipurpose water resource and demonstrate the regional economic potential for its development using the Columbia River as a case study. This model will serve as a tool for hydro development in the western U.S. and elsewhere, where seasonal low flows are prevalent, water demands and fish and wildlife provisions are putting additional stress on hydropower systems, alternative supplies are being evaluated, and the task of managing the water resources of the basin falls not only to federal U.S. agencies, but to local, regional, and international entities. This pumped storage model will demonstrate the feasibility of developing pumped storage on a local and regional scale by determining the size and characteristics of suitable pumped storage reservoirs and taking into account the economic conditions under which the reservoir will be developed. Hydraulic capacity and power generation capacity as firm capacity and as peakleveling capacity will be modeled in the context of the potential for providing water downstream for in-stream flows, municipal or commercial use, or to support additional groundwater withdrawals. This model will serve as a tool for identifying sites that could be developed for pumped storage as well as for identifying the water resource partnerships that will make construction of new pumped storage cost-effective. It will also demonstrate the ability of proposed developments to serve the diverse objectives prescribed by regional power planning agencies, local renewable energy laws, and federal mandates. Furthermore, the implementation of this model into decision support tools will aid in the integration of power, economic and ecological objectives as concurrent goals rather than competing goals that result in win-lose decision making.

Using optimization software in Mathematica, the model will be optimized for size and flow requirements, construction costs, O&M and pumping costs, hydro generation, and water demand and marketability downstream. A case study will be developed for the Columbia River power system, using the system of dams on the main stem Columbia between Grand Coulee Reservoir and the confluence of the Snake River. This area is characterized by large agricultural withdrawals, high dependence on hydropower, significant wind-power penetration, and low summer flows in July and August. In addition, downstream of the study site, new water rights are in demand in parts of Grant, Adams, and Franklin counties, and water availability downstream could also affect the cities of Pasco, Richmond and Kennewick.

Research- Integrated Water and Energy Systems Analysis Tool Development Stochastic, hydrologic, political, recreational, agricultural, navigability, ecological, and other operational considerations of a water system often conflict with hydropower generation and associated benefits, particularly in the western United States. Generalized decision support systems (DSSs) have been developed to simulate and optimize multi-reservoir systems (Labadie, 2004) to maximize hydropower production and minimize negative effects, but rarely maximize economic value of hydropower due to the complexity of interdependency with electric power grids and energy markets. Other DSSs, such as the UPLAN-NPM Network Power Model, have been developed for energy grid systems that generally include over-simplifying assumptions of the interconnectivity and interdependence of water systems. Development of a generalized DSS approach for simulating and optimizing an integrated water and energy system is still needed to analyze interdependencies between critical energy and water infrastructures on both a regional and national scale (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, 2008). Interdependencies of value as defined in an energy grid system with value as defined in a river and reservoir system are strongly enough related to require the incorporation of both water and power systems in one modeling structure. As a stepping stone for developing a model capable of capturing interdependencies between water and energy infrastructures, the proposed research is to add a power grid simulation or optimization structure within a world-renowned and widely applied river and reservoir network flow model: MODSIM (Labadie, 2010), and to apply it to an interconnected water and power system containing pumped storage projects and constraining water demands as a case study. MODSIM is freeware that internally embodies a scenario analysis structure, forecasting capabilities, water rights extensions, hydropower generation, and model customization tools that make MODSIM an adaptable and robust model for application to practically any water management system. Additionally, MODSIM has been successfully applied to water management modeling studies in basins throughout the western United States by the Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 2010) and a variety of other organizations. Therefore, MODSIM is strategically positioned to contribute significantly to an integrated understanding of how disruptions or failures on an energy grid could potentially impact water management throughout an entire system, and also aid development and optimization of various water management scenarios not only to circumvent potential disasters or system failures but also to maximize benefits. By constructing a model capable of simulating or

optimizing power flow through an electrical system, MODSIM can link hydropower operations to power grid or energy market characteristics for both simulation and optimization purposes. Due to the wide variety of methods that have been applied to simulation and optimization of the electrical power systems problem (Bansal, 2005), a thorough investigation and selection process must commence the project in order to determine an adequate and suitable methodology for incorporation of grid simulation or optimization into MODSIMs network flow model structure. After selection of a model structure, additional software tools within MODSIM will be fabricated to encapsulate the selected model structure as well as to enhance user interface capabilities with data entry and extraction via dialog boxes and figure displays. Additionally, simulation time periods within MODSIM may be expanded to include hourly operation, at least for power grid simulations or optimizations, because of hourly variance within energy grids. Upon completion of software modeling tools, sample U.S. water systems will be analyzed for relevance with the proposed research regarding the interdependence of water and electric power systems. A particular water system and associated energy grid will be selected as a case study for model validation purposes. Pertinent data will be collected from associated water and power management agencies. System characteristics and interdependencies of water infrastructure with power infrastructure can be explored by extracting model output at interesting time periods during simulations. Extreme scenarios may be analyzed to determine provision of grid services during extensive power outages, high-flow hydrology, low-flow hydrology, or other scenarios of interest. Scenarios considering operational changes can be studied in order to maximize economic benefit in consideration of both water and power system constraints and intricacies that often conflict with production of energy from hydropower.

Research- Rock Scour Evaluation Using Block Theory and the Critical Key Block Concept Excessive erosion of a dams foundation, abutments, or spillway can compromise dam stability and result in high remediation costs, property damage or even loss of life. To facilitate improvements in dam safety, it is necessary to comprehend the underlying physics of the scour process. Current state-of-the-art scour models by Bollaert (2002) and Annandale (1995, 2006) fail to adequately quantify the removal of individual rock blocks from dam abutments or unlined rock spillways where block removal is the major mechanism driving scour. The roots of understanding block removal stem from theory in rock mechanics and hydraulics. Although advances have been made in both fields, blending of the two disciplines has been limited in regard to scour. Typically, the 3D orientation of rock discontinuities are ignored and block geometry is assumed to be rectangular, promoting a more generalized and unreliable assessment of scour. Block theory yields promise for application to scour assessment as the 3D orientation of the rock discontinuities can readily be incorporated. Based on discontinuity orientations within a rock mass, a finite number of block shapes exist. Exposure of discontinuities on a free rock face (such as a spillway cut) can liberate individual blocks of rock when acted upon by outside forces (e.g., flowing water). Evaluation of the susceptibility of various block shapes to removal (by sliding, lifting, or rotating) forms the basis of block theory. Blocks that are the most readily removed are termed key blocks (Goodman & Shi 1985).

The proposed research will have three key components: 1) literature review and initial concept development, 2) field study 3) refinement and application of scour analysis techniques. First, an in-depth review of the application of rock mechanics and hydraulic engineering principles to scour processes will be made with emphasis on the applications of block theory. Based upon existing laboratory and field data, initial concepts would be developed to quantify the hydrodynamic pressures that are applied to individual rock blocks subject to overtopping or spillway discharges. Second, field investigations will be conducted for selected dam sites to collect pertinent geologic information for scour assessment. State-of-the-art methodologies for rock mass classification (e.g., laser scanning, photogrammetry) will be used in conjunction with in-depth field mapping to obtain rock discontinuity information including orientation, roughness, alteration/filling, and spacing. Third, field data coupled with known discharge data for the selected dam sites will be used to determine rock resistance to erosion and flow erosive capacity. The initial concepts developed for scour assessment using block theory will be applied and refined to evaluate scour potential at the dam sites. The final concepts would be presented as methodologies that can be practically applied to real world evaluations. The research will be performed at the University of California Berkeley as a 2-year Masters thesis project under the direction of Prof. Nicholas Sitar with outside consultation provided by Dr. Richard Goodman (Prof. Emeritus at UC Berkeley) and Dr. George Annandale (scour expert). UC Berkeley has a world-renowned reputation as a leader in civil engineering and geoscience research and is widely known for the development and use of block theory in the engineering of rock masses. There is a significant benefit to society to be able to critically understand the scour process. This research would improve safety for infrastructure that serve as key resources for society. The use of block theory would promote more site-specific assessments of scour ultimately improving prediction reliability and allowing for more efficient, cost-effective remediation designs.

Research- Computational Fluid Dynamics Study to Examine the Effect of a Krmn Gait on Fish Locomotion Fish passage through hydraulic structures, such as the turbines in hydropower dams, is an important issue due to the inherent risk of injury or death to the fish. The design of fish passage facilities requires knowledge of how fish respond under given situations. Models have been developed in an attempt to predict fish locomotion patterns in large rivers and waterways. Such methods are typically used for large-scale systems and are useful for capturing the general motion of fish. However, much is to be learned from how and why fish move the way they do given different environmental and flow field conditions. A thorough understanding of fish motion requires knowledge of the neuro-biology, cognitive ecology, and hydrology involved in

the system. This proposal focuses on studying the hydraulics of fish locomotion under prescribed fluid conditions. The research to be undertaken in this proposal is a study of the drag, propulsion, and other flow features (such as vorticity) of a single fish swimming in an unsteady, but controlled, flow field. What sets the proposed research apart is the incorporation of image analysis techniques to quantify actual fish motion from digital videos, and to use these digital videos as inputs to the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Professor George Lauder at Harvard University provided the research videos of fish locomotion. Professor Lauders research group has provided several videos of trout moving under controlled conditions for various fluid flows (i.e. free stream and behind a D-section cylinder). The videos were segmented into individual frames by an electrical engineering professor (Dr. Mona Garvin) at the University of Iowa, and were translated into a form usable for CFD analysis. The video frames of the swimming fish will be used to generate a dynamically moving boundary which will follow the exact motion of the fish that was filmed. This moving boundary will impart forces on the fluid being simulated, providing insight on the details of fish locomotion. The simulation scenario of the most interest is that of a fish slaloming between the vortices shed behind a D-section cylinder in a Krmn gait pattern. Determining the drag and pressure distribution for this type of fish locomotion will help in the understanding of aquatic biological propulsion and also will provide information on the formation of fish schools due to the complex vortex structure that would inevitably be present during schooling. A series of CFD simulations will also be conducted to determine which set of solution parameters (i.e. turbulence model and numerical schemes) is most appropriate for this type of problem. This information will be used to achieve the most accurate results possible and will be also useful as a guide for future researchers seeking to perform CFD studies in this area.

Research- Dynamic hydrologic-economic modeling of tradeoffs in hydroelectric systems In the Southeastern U.S., competition for water is becoming increasingly contentious due to rapid growth in demand. As state and regional managers seek to balance the water needs of humans and the environment, the timing of steamflowsin addition to their quality and quantityis an important concern, and one that can be significantly impacted by hydropower generation. In de-regulated electricity markets, where the price of energy and grid reliability services change throughout the day, generators may have financial incentives to alter generation schedules, sometimes on a real-time basis, in order to increase revenues. Hydroelectric dams ability to respond to changes in electricity demand more rapidly and at lower cost than thermal generators (i.e., coal, nuclear and natural gas) makes them well suited to take advantage of shortterm changes in market prices. However, the hydropower release schedules that result may lead to flow regimes that differ significantly from natural patterns. My M.S. research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill began to explore the potential for electricity market dynamics to impact flow regimes downstream from hydroelectric dams. Three dam sites in the Roanoke River Basin (North Carolina and Virginia) were modeled under several different operating scenarios. Flow regime statistics that reflect five

environmentally critical components of river flow (magnitude, timing, frequency, rate-of-change and duration) were used to quantify the impact of different operational scenarios on downstream flows. Results yielded some insight into the complicated relationship between hydropower revenues and downstream deviation from the natural flow regime. The Hydropower Research Foundation fellowship will be vital to my continued investigation of the relationship between electricity markets and flow regime downstream from hydroelectric dams. My Ph.D. project proposal involves the generation of stochastic hydrologic and market inputs, coupled with a probabilistic decision making algorithm on the part of the modeled hydropower utility, in order to set up a true revenue maximization problem. This enhanced model will also allow me to incorporate potential future impacts of climate change, increased reliance on more intermittent renewable energy sources (wind and solar), and changes in regional water demand from municipalities, industry and agricultural users. In order to gauge downstream environmental quality, a new set of flow regime statistics, ones that reflect potential hourly flow regime changes resulting from participation in dynamic electricity markets, will be developed and incorporated in our method for identifying a robust, Pareto-optimal solution for managing the hydrological assets of an entire river basin.

Research- The Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources and Hydropower Production Capacity of the Upper Colorado River The Upper Colorado River head is regulated by 8 major reservoirs to provide water supply, flood control, and hydropower. It is the prime water source for much of the western United States, as well as key wildlife and fish habitat. Climate change is a concern on the Upper Colorado River basin due to the sensitivity of snow accumulation processes that dominate runoff generation within the basin (Loaiciga, 1996). Climate models project Colorado will warm by 2.5F by 2025, relative to the 195099 baseline, and 4F by 2050. The projections show an increase in temperatures and a decline in snowpack (Christensen and Lettenmaier 2006). This is expected to cause a decline in runoff by the mid-to-late 21st century. Although most studies disagree on the numerical changes in precipitation, there is general consensus that precipitation increases will be offset by increased evapotranspiration, reducing overall runoff. Potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Upper Colorado River basin will be assessed. This will be accomplished through a comparison of simulated stream flow, reservoir volumes and levels, and hydropower production capacity under future climate conditions derived from current climate models and scenarios, and from historical climate data. A climate model will be used to generate future climate scenarios for the Upper Colorado River basin, which will be utilized to drive a hydrologic model for the basin. A Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) will be used for hydrologic analysis. WARMF performs daily simulations of snow and soil hydrology to calculate surface runoff and groundwater accretion to river segments, lakes or reservoirs. A reservoir analysis will be performed within the WARMF framework to determine if management strategy could be developed to mitigate climate change. The result of this research is expected to assist water management in adapting to longer-term climate change impacting water supply, flood management, and hydropower potential.

Thus, the objectives of this research are to: 1) provide water resource planners (e.g. utility designers, reservoir operators, and managers) with a better understanding of anticipated climate change impacts for the long-term decision-making process, 2) predict changes in stream flow (magnitude and timing) due to climate change, 3) predict reservoir storage, water deliveries, hydropower production, and probability of uncontrolled spills, 4) assess impact of climate change on ensuring delivery of the required flow to the Lower basin according to the water rights allocation agreements. The proposed research will be completed at the Colorado School of Mines (CSM). The Environmental Science and Engineering (ESE) division and its Hydrologic Science and Engineering (HSE) program have expertise in climate change, watershed scale surface, and ground water modeling. The Geology department advises watershed scale groundwater modeling. Currently, ESE has a climate-related project on carbon sequestration with plans for extensive research on climate changes impact on surface and groundwater resources, complementing the proposed project. Additionally, CSMs Colorado Energy Research Institute (CERI) and the International Ground Water Modeling Centre (IGWMC) provide facilities for research. CERI engages in climate research while the IGWMC advises on ground-water modeling problems. The proposed research will benefit from the expertise and services of these departments and centers and experts, to meet the research objectives.

Research- Real-time Forecasting and Hydropower Optimization The proposed research will address real-time forecasting and hydropower optimization. Of particular interest is hydropower operation of reservoirs in the Northeast, whose hydrology is often complicated and highly variable and whose storages are typically much smaller than Western reservoirs. These factors combined make short-term management decisions of great importance, but also very difficult. Frequent hydrologic variability in small watersheds can cause dramatic changes in reservoir storage, which can in turn lead to frequent suboptimal hydropower operation. My research seeks to build on previous works in stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) and recent developments in NEXRAD and other forecasting technologies that more accurately represent the spatial distribution of potential precipitation. The potential value of such analysis of such real-time reservoir optimization using forecasts has been demonstrated by previous studies. SDP seeks to find the release Rt at time t which maximizes the sum of the present benefit Bt and expected future benefit. Inflow at the present time, Rt, is usually assumed to be known. In this time study time steps might range from 1-6 hours, depending on the system in question. SSDP is an improvement on the traditional SDP scheme. The main advantage of SSDP is that it chooses Rt based on sampling from future flow scenarios which could employ the best available forecast information to explicitly consider uncertainty in future flows. This double-tiered methodology makes the best immediate decision using the best forecasting information available, including forecast uncertainty. Furthermore, SSDP generates an empirical distribution of future scenarios, allowing computation of statistics of interest about the system, and avoids the chronic over estimation of the benefits of optimal management policies which plague SDP models by separating the calculation of future flows from the calculation of an optimal policy.

SDP and SSDP algorithms can become computationally untenable for multi-reservoir systems and as such have largely been ignored for real-time optimization applications. To address this, we propose to use cubic piecewise polynomials (splines) rather than linear tensor product interpolates to approximate the value function of dynamic programs of various dimensionalities. For multi-dimensional cases similar to those proposed in this study, these methods have been shown to significantly reduce computational burden. Furthermore, a probability thinning procedure in which the density of sampling in the tails of the future scenario distributions is greater than in the center will be utilized. Since values in the extremes contribute more to uncertainty, values in the center of the distribution can be combined without loss of resolution. Studies have also successfully implemented SSDP re-optimization schemes which use singlestage forward moving SDP to choose the release for each stage instead of interpolating between predetermined policies, with great computational savings. Between utilization of such efficient algorithms and advances in the speed and affordability of computational power, this study hopes to show SSDP to be an ideal and feasible tool for real-time forecasting reservoir optimization. In conversations with New England utilities, several reservoir systems have emerged as promising case studies. The first is the Upper Androscoggin Lakes of northeastern Maine, which consist of six connected reservoirs and several associated hydro generation units. This system is ideal because the local geology and topography make it especially prone to rapid influxes of water during storm events, and because downstream structures, ecology, and run-of-river hydro greatly restrict the allowable discharges, making optimal release decisions of great importance. The second candidate reservoir is the Kennebec River Storage System of north central Maine, which encompasses three reservoirs (including Maines biggest lake, Moosehead Lake) and ten hydrogenation units. This system is ideal for initial development candidate because of its relative simplicity. This study proposes to use two systems utilized by two utilities to explore the benefits of new and evolving streamflow forecasting products to improve hydropower operations. The findings of this study should be applicable to modest-sized systems across the country.

Research- Glacial Influences on Water Resources of the Eklutna Basin, Alaska The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of glacial meltwater contributions to the seasonal availability of water in the Eklutna basin for municipal water use and hydropower generation. The information from this study will be used to create scenarios under which to model the influence of climate-mediated glacier volume reduction on the water storage capacity of Eklutna Glacier and Eklutna Lake, and determine the proportion of total discharge (water and suspended sediment) into Eklutna Lake that is provided by the lakes two primary tributaries: East Fork Eklutna River (predominantly precipitation and groundwater fed) and West Fork Eklutna River (predominantly glacier fed). This data will be used examine the quantity, timing, and distribution of these inputs to Eklutna Lake to determine potential changes in storage capacity of Eklutna Lake and affects to drinking water quality. Objectives: The outcome from this research will be used to answer the following:

Under future modifications to Eklutna Basin hydrology, will domestic water resource and hydropower demand exceed water supply availability?

To assess how water supplies may evolve, I will derive seasonal monthly estimates of streamflow and suspended sediment inputs under a variety of scenarios:

Current situation (reflecting average conditions during the 2009-2010 field seasons) With the Eklutna Glacier at its larger 1957 volume With the Eklutna Glacier at 50% of its current ice volume With no Eklutna Glacier

These seasonal monthly estimates of water availability (supply) will be compared to possible future water quantity demands by the water and power utilities at:

Current water resource demand Doubling of drinking water demand Doubling of hydropower demand

Eklutna Lake has been providing water for the generation of power since 1929 when a small hydroelectric power plant was established on the Eklutna River. The city of Anchorage acquired this project in 1943 and in 1955 the Eklutna Project was constructed to provide electricity to the Anchorage-Palmer area. The Eklutna Project developed infrastructure by which to extract water from the lake by means of a penstock approximately 24,000 feet long ,which is buried through Goat Mountain to Knick Arm where the Eklutna Power Plant is located. The current dam structure, which impounds 100% of Eklutna Lake outflow and has no outlet works, has been in place since 1965 replacing other outflow barriers that were damaged in the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake. Outflows from Eklutna Lake are diverted through an intake tunnel at 814 feet in elevation for drinking water or hydroelectric use. In 1996, Anchorage Municipal Light and Power (ML&P), Chugach Electric Association, and Matanuska Electric Association jointly took over the Eklutna Hydroelectric Power Plant (Municipal Light & Power, 2010). This power plant provides electricity for roughly 30,000 residential and commercial customers in the northern part of the Municipality of Anchorage including military bases and the downtown central business district and has 380 megawatts of installed generation capacity. Reduced glacier size is changing sediment supply to Eklutna Lake. Glaciers are widely known to erode landscapes producing prodigious quantities of sediments. These sediments are later released with melting ice at the terminus becoming suspended in the water column as they travel downstream, in high concentrations of suspended sediment in stream flow during the melt season. In the Eklutna basin, sediments are carried downstream and deposited into Eklutna Lake. All reservoirs are subject to sedimentation and, over time, the accumulation of sediments at the bottom of the lake can result in a substantial reduction in lake volume and water storage capacity. The original designs for dam construction and water resource usage facilities at Eklutna anticipated a sediment accumulation rate for a 50-year period of 10,000 acre-feet which must now be re-evaluated under altered climatic conditions.

Research- Analysis of the Effects of Pre-Swirl on the Efficiency and Operating Range of Hydro Pumps used in Pumped Storage Facilities Interest in wind and solar as alternative energy sources is growing. Although nuclear, hydro, and thermal plants carry a bulk of base load capacity, energy from sources such as wind and solar strain the electrical grid because they provide irregular levels of power. For example, photovoltaic cells only produce electricity when the sun shines, and wind turbines generate up to 70 percent of their power over nighttime when the demand for power is low. Various methods have been proposed to manage the electric grid, but hydro pumped storage plants are one of the most effective regulation systems available today. Pump-turbines are turbo-machines that extract energy from a fluid in turbine mode and add energy to a fluid in pumping mode. Pumped storage plants regulate the electrical grid by generating electricity at times of peak demand for electricity and storing energy by pumping water into elevated reservoirs at times of low demand. Pumped storage is one of the most economical energy storage methods, and plants operate at approximately 80 percent cycle efficiencies. Pumped storage also allows grid operators to quickly switch between power generation in turbine mode and energy storage in pump mode. Fluctuations in the demand and generation of electricity can cause situations where power companies must buy excess energy. Pumped storage plants can store this excess power by pumping water to an elevated reservoir. In unique cases, operators may run a few pump-turbines units in pump mode while simultaneously running others in generating mode. This practice can result in poor flow conditions and decreased efficiencies. Alternatively, the amount of power stored can be managed with variable speed pumps. Pumps traditionally operate at a constant speed at their peak efficiency point. Even though variable speed motors allow operators to vary pump capacity, changing pump speeds shifts the operating point away from optimum efficiency. One possible method of expanding the efficient operating rage is to adjust the amount of prewhirl at the inlet of pumps. The proposed research focuses on the effects of pre-swirl on the operating range of pumps used in pumped-storage hydropower and renewable energy storage facilities. The goal of the research is to show that adjustable prewhirl can be used to expand the practical operating ranges of variable speed pump-turbines in pump mode without adversely affecting efficiency in generating mode. In turbines, wicket gates are used at the inlet to redirect flow and increase efficiency. In a similar manner, prewhirl in pumps can be achieved by adding directional vanes at the inlet of pumps to cause water to swirl as it enters the pump. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software will be used to predict operating conditions of a model pump at various inlet flow conditions. A case study will be conducted to determine the effects of pre-swirl on the efficiency and operating range of turbomachines in pumped storage facilities.

Research- Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Stream Flow and Hydropower Production According to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC), the 1964 Columbia River Treaty between the United States and Canada allowed for the construction of three dams in British Columbia on the Columbia River and one in Montana on the Kootenay River. The purpose was to provide flood control and better hydropower generation in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the United States and Canada. Besides helping fund he three Canadian dams, the United States also agreed to a one-time payment to Canada for prevention of flood damage by their facilities during the first 60 years of the treaty (US paid 64 million) and to send back on a continuous basis one-half of the additional potential generated power benefit. Either the U.S. or Canada has the right to terminate the Treaty after 2024, as long as notice is given by 2014. The U.S. is expected to make its decision whether or not to continue the Treaty by late 2013 (2010a). Given that changes in downstream beneficial uses since 1964 (most notably spill requirements for juvenile salmon, increased agricultural demands, and increased summer power demands) have caused operational variations in U.S. storage facilities, the concept of potential versus actual benefit needs to be examined. This also suggests that the U.S. should measure the impacts of climate change on Columbia River stream flows, as well as assess how the U.S. may have to change its hydroelectric operations on the river without the requirements of the Treaty. A considerable amount of work has been done regarding climate change influences on Columbia River flows. The majority of global climate models (GCMs) result in reduced firm hydropower production in the Pacific Northwest for both 2020 and 2080 scenarios (Markoff and Cullen, 2008). To compound this problem, the NWPCCs Sixth Northwest Power Plan predicts an increase of 0.8-1.8% in electricity demand for the area is expected between 2010 and 2030 (NWPCC, 2010b). This research will analyze how climate change could impact stream flows, storage, spills, and hydropower generation at key reservoirs in the CRB. Changes in stream flow due to climate change will be analyzed and used in collaboration with the previous operation strategies to determine how the State of Washington will be affected by the possible termination of the Columbia River Treaty. Run of the river (little to no storage) hydropower operations will be included in consultation with the Public Utility Districts operating the facilities. A solution to meet future water demands in the basin will be proposed. By understanding how climate change will affect the stream flow of the Columbia River, the U.S. can analyze whether or not renewal of the existing Treaty would be beneficial. Because the U.S. currently pays Canada under the Treaty, it may prove more advantageous for both countries to terminate the Treaty. Furthermore, if Canada alone chooses to terminate the Treaty, the U.S. needs to gain a better understanding of how hydroelectric operations on the Upper Columbia would impact the stream flow entering Washington State. This would ultimately help determine how operations should change on the Lower Columbia to meet future demands in the area and continue to prevent flood damage. By first looking at the Canadian dams and determining their operation strategies, the U.S. can take a more logical approach to changing its own procedures if needed. Washington State University has a long history of reservoir modeling in the Pacific Northwest and, through the State of Washington Water Research Center, currently has all the resources necessary to complete the scope of this research. Predicted stream flows for 2020

and/or 2040 can be assessed and used to help determine likely inflows, outflows and storage at the three dams. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-ResSim model or ColSim (Columbia Simulation) will be used, but other tools may be considered. An ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and emissions scenarios will likely be used. Requirements of the Treaty (i.e. obligations to the United States) will be examined to help determine why British Columbia operated the dams in certain ways during high and low flows. Then the predicted stream flows will be used to show how B.C. might operate given a renewal or termination of the Treaty. Population growth and future energy needs of the area in both countries will also be considered to help determine future water demand. The first task, to be completed by June 2011, will be to create a data inventory for the major dams in the CRB, consisting of inflows, outflows and storage values. Also by this time, the analysis tool should be decided upon. This will likely be HEC-ResSim or ColSim. By August 2011, the ensemble of GCMs and emissions scenarios should be determined. A working model including a logical ensemble will be running by December of 2011. Optimization and analysis will be conducted until August 2012 with final recommendations by September 2012.

Research- Development of Low-Head Structures for the Purpose of Aeration The research being proposed focuses on Water Management Innovations, specifically improving water quality downstream of hydroelectric facilities. The research will include developing lowhead structures for the purpose of aeration. Increased aeration will lead to higher levels of dissolved oxygen and a healthier stream. Healthier streams attract more fish and recreational activities giving hydropower greater benefits. Hydroelectric dams draw water from below the reservoir surface. This water has lower levels of dissolved oxygen and is less suitable for supporting aquatic life. Advances have been made to inject air into the water. This is accomplished by surface pumps above the dam to promote mixing, aeration in the water being pulled into the turbines with diffusers, or using vented turbines in the dam (Gulliver, and Arndt 77-86). Aerating low-head hydraulic structures may provide a cost effective alternative to injecting air above or inside hydroelectric dams. Some hydroelectric facilities, such as at Tennessee Valley Authority dams, employ weirs downstream for the purpose of regulating stream discharge, with the added benefit of aeration. Other weirs such as the South Holston River labyrinth weir and Chatuge Aerating Infuser, developed by the TVA, were designed specifically for aeration. Some other projects that employ weirs for aeration include the Tarp Project in Chicago and the South Platte River in Denver. This research will evaluate past aerating structures and apply basic design principles to low-head structures in hopes of providing more efficient aeration. Aeration is most effective in highly turbulent flow (Gulliver, Wilhelms, and Parkhill et al). Therefore this research will develop weirs that most efficiently entrain air through the added turbulence that can be created across the crest. There are many design possibilities including irregularly shaped weir blades or aeration ladders. The designs will also focus on maintaining the multiple uses of the stream, such as boating and fishing.

Research- Optimization of Reservoir Operations on the Rio Chama using Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Multi-objective Operational Reservoir Modeling The World Commission on Dams argues that many large storage projects fail to produce the benefits needed to economically justify their development (2000). In many instances, additional constraints have been placed on hydropower operations, making it difficult for these projects to produce the full benefits as originally designed. These constraints can include interstate compacts, environmental flow requirements, industrial/municipal water supply, recreational enhancement, and altered hydrology due to climate change. Dams on the Rio Chama, a major tributary to the Rio Grande located in northern New Mexico, are typical of many existing projects throughout the United States that should be optimized to create improved and new benefits. Existing operations at El Vado, Heron, and Abiquiu Dams need to be closely examined and optimized to account for constraints not previously considered during the original project implementation. Also, additional benefits should be examined for the El Vado and Heron projects through the implementation of hydropower production. The goal of the proposed research is to use multicriteria decision analysis methods and modeling tools to optimize dam operations on the Rio Chama. The optimization process will include two analysis tools: multicriteria design analysis (MCDA) and computer modeling programs. A systematic decision framework will be used to account for multiple, conflicting demands while using the best and appropriate modeling tools for quantitatively assessing different alternatives. This is the first time flow optimization has been seriously examined for such a large watershed in New Mexico. To achieve the research goal, three objectives are proposed: 1. Advance multicriteria decision analysis in optimization of hydro operations. MCDA can be defined as a system that accounts for multiple demands or criteria while determining a solution to a particular problem (Belton and Stewart 2002). Although many approaches are available for applying MCDA, this study will use multiattribute utility theory (MAUT), an approach recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (1998). Through the use of utility functions, MAUT transforms different criteria, such as cost, stakeholder acceptance, and risk, into a common dimensionless scale (typically 0-1). Criteria utility functions are then combined with weighting functions of the criteria to form a decision score for each alternative (Kiker et al. 2005). The overall goal of this process is to maximize utility. The optimization framework will use MUAT to generate alternatives for testing and determine criteria with which to compare the alternatives. This will also involve assigning weights to each criteria based on its perceived importance. 2. Investigate hydropower retrofit within an optimization framework. The installation of small hydropower facilities at El Vado and Heron Dams may provide an untapped economic benefit for reservoir operations on the Rio Chama. Recently added hydropower facilities at Abiquiu Dam demonstrate the practicability of adding low-head and low-flow turbines to older dam structures. The feasibility of adding hydropower to El Vado and

Heron Dams will be examined, including approximate energy production capabilities and revenue based on resale to local energy distributors. A cost/benefit analysis will be performed to determine the approximate payback period for adding hydropower facilities at these sites. 3. Demonstrate advanced tools on the Rio Chama. A management model, known as the Upper Rio Grande Water Operations Model (URGWOM), was completed in 2007 using RiverWare, a program developed by the University of Colorado and used extensively by the Bureau of Reclamation, Army Corps of Engineers, and Tennessee Valley Authority for reservoir operations planning and management. RiverWare is the ideal modeling platform for testing optimization alternatives since it includes built-in algorithms for solving user-defined multiobjective operational policies. The URGWOM model will be the basis for modeling each optimization alternative. Operation rules that are economically and ecologically beneficial to the Rio Chama system will be fed into URGWOM. Optimization algorithms incorporated into RiverWare will be used to find operational solutions that comply with the previously established weighted criteria.

Research-Valuating internal erosion in earth dams, using non-destructive methods This research will advance methods for evaluating hydropower infrastructure using real time, continuous, and nondestructive techniques. This research investigates earthen embankments (dams and levees) subject to water flow by exploring internal erosion initiation and propagation in heterogeneous earth materials and in zoned embankments. Internal erosion is a primary failure mode of dams and levees. There is limited understanding regarding characterization of the inception and early progression of internal erosion in earthen structures both in terms of geometry of erosion features, properties within the seepage paths, and changes that occur with time progression. Research is needed to explore the accuracy and resolution required to capture changes in subsurface conditions using multisensor, nondestructive geophysical techniques deployed at the ground surface and/or in situ. Research is also needed to explore what parameters can be measured, how they can be used to diagnose where internal erosion susceptibility is high, how the parameters change with the initiation and progression of internal erosion over time and space, what scale of change in parameter can be measured, what the confidence of the measurements is in a probabilistic framework. The proposed research will motivate solutions to a significant challenge presented by earth dams which are susceptible to internal erosion as infrastructure ages. Colorado School of Mines is uniquely positioned to develop this research by working with local representatives from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, from within the SmartGeo Intelligent Geosystems program framework. (http://smartgeo.mines.edu) As a member of the programs Intelligent Earth Dam research group, I am working to develop dam and levee systems that can sense changes in environment and performance and provide decision support for improving performance. This research will focus on the geotechnical behavior observed at the initiation and early progress of internal erosion using continuous monitoring techniques (geophysical and imaging). Research will be conducted by experiment, analysis of results, and evaluation of dam and levee management policy related to advancing monitoring methods by addressing the following questions: 1. What does internal erosion look like as it initiates and progresses? Size, shape of erosion

feature, surface deformations? Changes with time? Movement of particles? How do the material and hydraulic properties (porosity, density, permeability, flow rate) change as erosion initiates and progresses to form a continuous pipe? Experiment 2. Determine if we can detect the initiation/early stages of internal erosion using state of the art geophysical electrical/acoustic techniques? What size anomalies can geophysical techniques (electrical, acoustic) discern? What testing variables (sampling interval, electrode spacing) influence what we can see? Experiment 3. Using non invasive continuous monitoring, can we predict the location of susceptible soils, and probability of progression of the initiation of an internal erosion anomaly to a pipe? To a failure? Analysis 4. How does the ability to predict the occurrence of internal erosion dovetail into the risk assessment methods used by dam safety managers? How can we reduce uncertainties in the existing failure mode analyses and event tree models? Analysis/Policy 5. What are the implications of continuous monitoring to levee and dam management policy (and vice versa)? Policy

Research- Modifying hydropower releases to reduce riverbank erosion Through a combination of field surveys, numerical modeling, and analytical work, this study investigates the effects of hydropower peaking operations on erosion of the downstream riverbank and seeks to identify appropriate reservoir release adjustments to minimize these effects. Peaking operations, designed to generate electricity, result in dramatic changes in discharge often on a daily basis. For example, an almost ten-fold increase in discharge over two hours is typical on the lower Roanoke River. Erosion rates and conditions for stream ecology depend on the characteristics of hydropower peaking operations. Proper adjustments in the release patterns could mitigate adverse effects, further enhancing the appeal of hydropower as a renewable, sustainable energy source. To predict erosion, three quantities must be specified: (i) the resistive capacity of the soil, (ii) the erosive force of the flowing water, and (iii) a threshold condition after which erosion occurs. To determine these quantities, this study uses a new approach to combine advanced field measurement techniques with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. Actual field conditions and flow releases on the lower Roanoke River, a regulated river in eastern North Carolina, serve as the basis for the study. The resistive capacity and threshold condition of cohesive soils, such as those found on the lower Roanoke River, depend on the composition of the bank soil as well as chemical properties of the river and pore water. The complexity of interparticle forces has prevented the development of a general theoretical model to predict cohesive soil erosion. This study uses the in situ jet erosion test to determine the soil erodibility. The jet test uses a submerged water jet to erode the soil. The resulting scour depth is monitored over time to estimate the soils threshold shear stress and resistance to erosion. To characterize the river flow and channel topography, extensive measurements have been carried out with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) throughout the study reach. The ADCP provides direct measurements of three dimensional flow velocities and flow depth which may be used to determine discharge and bathymetry. The field data collected with the ADCP will be used to build CFD models representative of a straight reach and meander bend in the lower

Roanoke River. The erosive force applied by flowing water can be represented by the shear stress applied to the bank, known as the boundary shear stress. Boundary shear stress is influenced by the near- bank flow conditions, including the presence of secondary currents and turbulence. Direct measurements of boundary shear stress in natural rivers are not possible and techniques to estimate shear stress have been shown to provide significantly different results. CFD models are used in this study to calculate the distribution of boundary shear stress on the riverbank. CFD involves the numerical solution of the governing equations of fluid flows and can describe the entire three dimensional flow field. These models directly calculate the boundary shear stress based on local flow conditions. In addition to the shear stress, the models will allow a detailed study of the flow processes that generate the applied stress. While this study focuses on the lower Roanoke River, the results will provide an improved understanding of the relationship between flow releases for hydropower generation and adjustments in the downstream river channel. Through numerical simulations of existing and alternative flow scenarios, recommendations can be made to minimize riverbank erosion. By reducing associated erosion, hydropower can continue as an important renewable energy source while minimizing the effects on the surrounding river and ecosystem.

Research- Predicting Fish Passage and Energetic Requirements for the Alaska Steeppass Fishway using a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model The proposed research project will characterize and quantify the hydrodynamic characteristics of a Model A, Alaska Steeppass fishway using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. The CFD model will be used to help estimate energetic requirements for fish passage to better predict the probability of passage for species such as the American Shad (Alosa sapidissima). The probability of fish passage will be estimated by comparing three-dimensional velocities from the CFD model with swim speed-fatigue curves for the target specie. Energetic requirements for passage will be estimated using the methods outlined by Behlke (1991) and Webb (1975). The estimated energy requirements and passage efficiencies will be used to compare the relative effort required for ascent for standard configurations of slope and flow rate. In addition to providing a thorough understanding of Steeppass hydraulics, this study seeks to outline a method for analyzing fish passage efficiency and energetic requirements for passage using a CFD model. Relationships derived from this model may be used to modify the current design and recommended operating range for the Model A Steeppass fishway. The Alaska Steeppass is a type of chute fishway used extensively on coastal streams in the east and in remote locations throughout the country. They are primarily suited to small streams and low head dams. Many of these streams historically supported spawning stocks of anadromous species. Much of this spawning habitat has been fragmented by dams to provide power and irrigation water for surrounding populations. Chute fishways of differing types (pool and weir, baffle, vertical slot) have become a popular solution for this problem. The Alaska Steepppass, a baffle-type chute fishway, was originally developed by Ziemer (1962) for use in Alaska where sites are often difficult to access with construction equipment and materials. These fishways have the advantage of being highly portable and relatively inexpensive. Flow patterns in the Steeppass are complex and air entrainment is high which may contribute to passage difficulties for some

species (Haro, et al. 1999). The Model A" Steeppass, a derivative of the modified Denil No. 6 developed by McLeod and Nemenyi in 1940, is the most widely used variant due to its ability to reduce flow velocities to magnitudes theoretically negotiable by many species. Although the design criterion for the Steeppass fishway is generally accepted there is room for improvement, especially in the capability to efficiently pass a wider range of species. Since its design in 1962 the efficacy of the Steeppass design has been evaluated on several occasions. Ziemer (1965) first reported on the apparent success of the fishway in an addendum to the original informational leaflet that describes the Steeppass design. More recently, researchers at the S.O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Center quantified the effect of slope and headpond (flow rate) level on the passage of American Shad through the fishway (Haro, et al. 1999) and reported passage rates of 7 to 12 percent. This fishway was designed based on one-dimensional velocity characteristics which were reduced to a level navigable (in theory) by many species. Improving passage rates for anadromous clupeids in this fishway is a desired outcome of this project. Recently, fish passage researchers have begun to undertake the numerical simulation of hydraulic systems to improve design and operation of fishway structures based on threedimensional hydrodynamics. To date, a numerical study of the hydrodynamics of a Steeppass fishway has not been published.

Research- The Development of Clean, Surface-Reconditioning Additives Based on Solid Inorganic Nanoparticles for Environment-Friendly Industrial Lubricating Compositions According to a North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) Generating Availability Report1, lubrication related failures are among the top causes of forced and scheduled outages, and deratings of hydroelectric turbines. Hydropower turbine bearings are lubricated under pressure and failures in them are the main source of direct oil release into environment. Lubricating formulations consist of base oil, which can be mineral, synthetic or vegetable and 20% to 30% of various oil additives. The majority of these additives such as ZDDP, chlorinated paraffins, metal-organics and surfactants are highly toxic to the environment with negative long-term effects2. To minimize subsequent environmental impact substantial efforts was done to date. Current research focuses on replacing petroleum-derived base stock by vegetable oils but the majority of the toxicity of these lubricating compositions are not from the base but from additives, where few alternative options being explored. Formulating lubricating compositions that are safe for environment is greatly depends on availability of safe additives. Over the last few decades there has been steadily growing interest in using solid, inorganic nanoparticles of solid inorganics as antiwear and friction modifying additives in lubricating oils. Since all current lubrication systems use active filtration with a typical cut-off size of 5-20 microns, we have to work with particles that are way smaller than 1 micron efficiently pushing them to nanoscale. Despite demonstration of an outstanding friction and wear reduction properties there is no complete understanding either of the powder-surface interaction

mechanism or the influence of basic powder parameters such as particle sizes, concentration and contact pressures. Proposed research aimed on understanding of the interaction mechanism between ultrafine powders of laminar inorganic nanoparticles and various substrate surfaces during friction. Verification of this hypothesis will be done by a parametric study of initial powder structure, concentration, particle size and contact pressure dependences of wear reducing properties of our blends compared to well-formulated industrial oil. Tribometry testing will be done with pin-onplate reciprocating wear and friction tester. Source powders will be characterized by means of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) for particles morphology and size and tribofilm characterization including Energy Dispersive X-Ray spectroscopy (EDX) for elemental distribution in generated tribofilms on the wear scar. X-Ray Diffractometry (XRD) will be employed for crystalline structure study. Differential Thermal Analysis(DTA) for temperatures of phase transformation and Fourier Transform Infra-Red (FTIR) spectroscopy for tribofilm characterization in reflection geometry. Once basic understanding of dependences of the powder concentration and particle sizes influence will be build, we can formulate lubricating composition based on vegetable derived base stock and inert inorganic powder of a solid lubricant additive to test in laboratory and real world environment.

Research- Coupling Hydropower and Intermittent Renewables; Looking Within the Grid The proposed research will address hydropower operations optimization within a power grid with greatly expanded but intermittent renewable energy resources (such as wind and solar) and the possible reduction of power generation from fossil fuel. The goal of the proposed research project is to construct a portfolio of systems analysis methods to analyze hydropower and its increased value in power grids involving intermittent renewable energy sources. Of particular interest is the symbiotic interaction between hydropower and wind operation. Specifically, we wish to 1) develop statistical methods for analyzing daily trends in hydro- and wind power generation and pricing, and 2) use optimization and simulation methods to optimize hydropower operations when there is a high penetration of wind in the grid. We will structure this study so that the methodology can be potentially applied to any ISO region with high penetrations of wind and hydropower. The correlation between wind and hydro generation at different time scales and how this affects the energy market will be investigated. A typical system operating scheme follows a sequence of events: A day-ahead forecast of the demand is made for each hour of the following day. Power generators bid for producing energy and operating services for the next day and the Independent System Operator (ISO) schedules an appropriate mix of energy generating resources to meet demand, spinning reserves and transmission requirements and constraints. While forecasting daily and hourly demand is a relatively well understood task, variability of wind generation adds substantial uncertainty. My research will explore the interaction between the statistical variability of both wind and inflow to hydropower reservoirs and the price structure for supplying hydropower almost immediately when wind unexpectedly dies down. This indicates which kinds of policies are most effective for an efficient, economical and reliable power supply.

Current state-of-the-art methods for optimizing hourly productions of various renewable (wind, solar and hydro) and conventional (natural gas) power plants employ linear programming and Monte Carlo simulation or non-linear programming of a quadratic loss function. However, these deterministic methods fail to capture the stochastic nature of demand as well as the effect of weather on wind and hydropower generation. To improve upon existing methods, we propose using more stochastic optimization algorithms that have been applied previously in both reservoir management and unit commitment for power generation but have not previously been used with wind or other renewables. By doing so, we can provide more realistic operation schedules and estimates of expected revenue from generating hydropower when a high penetration of intermittent wind sources is in the power grid.

Research- Renewable Energy Production from Water Distribution Systems Water distribution systems (WDS) are designed to satisfy the consumer demands at the outlet nodes. To achieve this goal, adequate pressures need to be maintained throughout the network. While the pressures lower than a minimum may cause unsatisfactory outcomes, the excess pressures may also cause pipe damage and leakage problems. As the complexity of a water distribution network increases due to population growth, maintaining target pressures becomes difficult causing excess pressures at several locations of the network. The conventional solution to this problem is to install pressure-reducing valves that adjust the local head loss to lower the downstream pressure. This causes dissipation of significant amount of energy. However, this energy can be recovered and used for the benefit of the community. This energy recovery is possible by utilizing mini and micro hydroelectric turbines as an alternative means of pressure reduction. Recent studies have shown that mini and micro turbines are feasible and economically viable alternative for this purpose (Ramos, Covas et al. 2005; Bieri, Boillat et al. 2010; Soffia, Miotto et al. 2010). In this study a methodology for the assessment of renewable energy potential in WDSs and design of an optimal energy recovery system is proposed. The proposed methodology is based on a simulation-optimization algorithm. Simulation software will be used to analyze the hydraulic effects of a turbine or a set of turbines along with pressure reducing valves inserted at specific locations of the network. The locations of these valves needs to be selected carefully for the system function is not affected and feasible energy recovery configuration achieved. Therefore, in this study, a systematic way of deciding the best locations and capacities of micro turbines will be developed as well as the locations of the pressure reducing valves and their operation to increase the system performance as much as possible. In this study, performance of an energy recovery configuration is defined as the annual benefit obtained by introducing this system in the WDS. As a test case, the proposed methodology will be applied in the water distribution system serving the Dover Township area in New Jersey, which can be considered to be a typical system in small town in USA. This water distribution system is selected to test the proposed approach since it has been extensively studied and well documented (Maslia, Sautner et al. 2000; Maslia, Sautner et al. 2001; Aral, Guan et al. 2004a; Aral, Guan et al. 2004b). The assessment of renewable energy potential of this pump driven network will provide a good example since the recent studies mostly concentrate on gravity driven networks.

This study will provide an efficient tool for the assessment of renewable energy potential in WDS. This potential has already been demonstrated by previous studies which consider gravity driven water supply systems (Afshar, Benjemaa et al. 1990; Ramos, Covas et al. 2005; Giugni, Fontana et al. 2009; Soffia, Miotto et al. 2010). In this study, renewable energy potential of a pump driven water distribution system will be tested which are more common in WDS. In this study, it is expected that by the integration approach of micro turbines into the WDS, the potential for energy recovery from pump driven systems will be demonstrated. This technique will be applicable to any type of water distribution system to evaluate its renewable energy potential and to design the optimal energy recovery system. Based on our optimal design experience in our group (Telci, Nam et al. 2008; Telci, Nam et al. 2009), this optimization methodology will be an efficient design and assessment tool for harnessing renewable energy from WDS.

Research- Development of a Computational Tool for Predicting Water Quality in LargeScale Flows The primary goal of this project is to develop a numerical model capable of predicting the hydrodynamics and water-quality parameters in hydropower flows. This tool will provide an instrument to evaluate the effectiveness of operational configurations or structural modifications in reducing negative environmental impacts of hydropower. Design projects to meet water-quality standards have required multiple-year schedules including:

Initial field data collection Laboratory modeling Field prototype testing, and Possible refinement in the laboratory or field.

The primary shortcoming for this approach is that the laboratory models cannot quantitatively reproduce turbulence and water-quality parameters, such as dissolved oxygen (DO), total dissolved gas (TDG), and temperature from various design alternatives due to model scaling issues. The approach relies on qualitative performance curves that relate flow conditions with past field experiences. This has led to variable success in the projects; some have been quite successful, while others less so. Obviously, this imposes environmental and financial risk onto the hydropower utilities. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has recently become an indispensable tool to understand the physics leading to poor water quality in forebays and tailraces. Fish bypasses have been designed based on hydraulic information obtained from numerical simulations. Particle tracking technique has been used to simulate fish egg movement and sediments. Rather than starting from scratch, the general purpose open-source CFD libraries OpenFoam will be used, adding additional capabilities as needed. The software is under active development by several research groups in the world. It has been extensively used in the mechanical, chemical, and environmental communities (Audi, Hydro Quebec, Shell, Hitachi, and U.S. Navy,

among others). The suitability of OpenFoam for hydropower flows has been investigated. It was used to model a stratified flow in a forebay, flow over a spillway, and flow field in one of the Mississippi River pools, given reasonable results. The finite volume techniques used by OpenFoam are appropriate for modeling large-scale, complex water bodies because of their inherent conservation, applicability to any mesh structure, and availability of segregated implicit solution algorithms. However, some multi-physics capabilities need to be included in order for it to be useful for hydropower applications. The use of OpenFoam provides an efficient mechanism for research, collaboration, and technology transfer by removing proprietary software issues. Once the appropriate models are implemented in OpenFoam, the computational tool will be validated using velocity, temperature, DO, and TDG field data collected at hydroelectric projects.

Research- Erosion of Cohesive Sediment due to Hydropower Releases Hydropower plants operate without producing air pollution or toxic by-products, but there is still a need for research to lessen the impact of dam operation on river ecosystems. By changing the flow regime of the river, hydropower plants and dams affect the downstream river characteristics including the channel geomorphology by means of erosion. Dam-regulated rivers experience adverse effects, such as channel widening and lateral migration. Changing the river channel structure can affect the suitability of the river as a habitat for fish and other wildlife. Climate change will continue to make dam operation more challenging. Extreme weather events are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall and flooding events. As climatic conditions change, bankfull conditions and overbank flows will become more common. By studying these events, the adverse effects on downstream ecosystems can be mitigated through implementation of new reservoir flow releases. The majority of channel banks are composed of predominately cohesive sediment. Cohesive sediments, primarily made up of clay and silt particles, behave differently than their noncohesive counterparts. Cohesive sediments tend to be held together by interparticle forces, rather than gravitational force. Since the behavior of cohesive soils does not follow the sediment transport theory of non-cohesive sediment, empirical methods of developing erodibility parameters are used to estimate channel erosion. Cohesive sediments entrained by the flow have an impact on the river water quality. Furthermore, they are the primary carriers of potentially hazardous nanoparticles. The nanoparticles sorb to the readily available surface area of the sediment and can travel far downstream from the sources of these potentially dangerous compounds. In order to explore cohesive sediment erosion in a channel, the process will be explored on a fundamental level. Sediment will be introduced into a laboratory flume at the Baker Environmental Hydraulics Laboratory and subjected to flows mimicking the effects of dam outflow rates. The phenomena will be studied using a micro-PIV (Particle Image Velocimeter). Viewing entrainment of cohesive soils on a micro-scale in order to apply the findings to erosion on macro-scale is a new approach for cohesive sediment transport research. Images from the micro-PIV can be magnified in order to determine the behavior of the sediment particle as it is

entrained into the channel flow. The use of the state-of-art equipment in the Baker Lab will allow the phenomena to be studied from a nano-perspective usually unavailable to researchers. The results from the laboratory tests will be used to evaluate field data. The field data set includes flows and geomorphology of the Lower Roanoke River downstream of the Roanoke Rapids Dam. The site, in Scotland Neck, North Carolina, 120 km downstream of the dam, was selected because of the active bank erosion the channel experiences. In-situ tests were performed via the use of a jet test device (JTD) to obtain soil erodibility characteristics. A JTD uses a jet of constant head to impose an applied shear stress directly onto the soil. The scour depth created by the jet is recorded over time and used to determine the soil characteristics. We hypothesize that as the shape of the scour hole in the soil is altered, the soil will experience a different applied force. FLUENT, a numerical model will be employed to examine the effect of the scour hole development on the shear stress applied to the soil. Benefits from this research extend from environmental to cost savings. Climate change around the world has created a trend of higher potential for extreme storm events such as droughts and floods. This greater probability of flood occurrence will create the need for dam retrofitting, unless a safe outflow that utilizes downstream flood banks without compromising the channel can be determined. Saving the channel banks from excessive erosion will protect downstream habitats and lessen the impact of hydropower on the environment. Lowering the sediment load in a river can also reduce the amount of siltation in downstream reservoirs, thus extending the life of the reservoir.

Research-Developing a Technology To Predict Gas Transfer at Low Head and High Head Structures Low levels of dissolved oxygen will disrupt aquatic ecosystems. At low head hydraulic structures, such as the many locks and dams on navigable rivers, entrained air from increased turbulence and flow variation leads to a substantial increase in dissolved oxygen concentration, and is a benefit to the aquatic biota. At high head structures, due to increased water velocity and deeper plunge pools, dissolved nitrogen and oxygen (total dissolved gas) can reach high levels as further exchange occurs between compressed bubbles and the water (Urban et. al 2008). Total dissolved gas (TDG) concentration thus becomes higher than equilibrium with the atmosphere (supersaturated) and fish exposed to these concentrations will often develop gas bubble disease (Urban et. al 2001). Gas transfer at spillways can thus have a positive or a negative effect on the aquatic biota. The physical process by which these two phenomena occur, however, is similar. My proposed research involves developing a technology, which can predict gas transfer at low head and high head structures. The goal is a unified theory and computer code that will function to predict oxygen transfer at low head structures, and oxygen and nitrogen transfer at high head structures. If the physics and chemistry of gas transfer at spillways can be accurately analyzed, the science of the process should not change with scale. The resulting equations can be used to solve gas transfer problems at multiple structures: locks, dams, spillways and hydropower facilities. Detailed analysis using traditional computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling would be implemented with field verification from existing measurements. Subroutines to a commercial code such as FLUENT will be developed at first to see if these codes are capable of

performing to the task. If not, a St. Anthony Falls Laboratory in-house code, CENTAUR3D, developed by the group of Professor Sotiropoulos for bubble dynamics at hydro-turbines will be utilized. If necessary, selective experiments will be developed and run to estimate the importance of particular physical processes. The overall objective of the research will be to develop a CFD code that can be used to predict gas transfer at any spillway, without the currently required calibration to field data. The field data would then be used for true verification. Eventually, the requirement for expensive field measurements will be reduced or even eliminated. Gas transfer at spillways is an important consideration when developing and relicensing hydropower facilities. The benefits of hydropower may be offset by declinations in river wildlife, causing negative public relations with the community and irreversible destruction of local ecosystems. Through understanding and controlling gas transfer at hydropower facilities, these adverse environmental impacts can be mitigated. Existing and proposed hydropower facilities need to be cognizant of the transfer of oxygen and total dissolved gas that occurs at their spillways. A low head facility in the Midwestern or Eastern USA may require the installation of energyintensive aeration facilities because the water that will not travel over the spillway (travel through the powerhouse) will have a lower dissolved oxygen concentration (Gulliver et. al 1998). It is important to make sure that the correct oxygen transfer is applied to the spillway, because regulators have a tendency to error on the side of protecting the environment. This code will help hydro plants reduce or eliminate energy expenditures for aeration. Many high-head hydropower dams are going through the relicensing process. The spillways for these dams were designed without consideration for total dissolved gas concentrations downstream. Since that time, strict TDG regulation (110%) has been imposed upon the water resources the hydro-plant uses, and owners are struggling to meet these regulations. These dams generate the majority of hydropower in the USA, and the inability to meet regulations could have serious consequences for the energy potential of these facilities. A unified CFD code to predict gas transfer at both low head and high head spillways without calibration to field data is currently needed and desired by the industry.