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ANDROID:

A Platform in Transition

Lets take a look at Androids market opportunity. Last year, smartphone sales
overtook PC sales for the rst time.

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And soon it will dwarf them. By 2016, smartphone sales will triple PC sales. Mobile
will soon be the dominant mode of computing.

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The conversion cycle for smartphones is just getting started. Global smartphone
penetration is only ~10 percent.

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The U.S. is more than halfway through the conversion cycle: smartphones now
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Last year was a turning point for smartphone sales. Smartphone penetration jumped
10 percentage points or more in the most developed mobile markets. Smartphone
penetration in China, the largest market by volume, is only ~15 percent.

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All of which is to say: Androids market opportunity is huge. Smartphone sales are
just starting to make a signicant impact as a percentage of global mobile phone
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Android is winning the race globally, accounting for more than 50 percent of the
market as of Q1 2012. Android is especially strong internationally because many
market do not have carrier subsidies like the U.S. The range and diversity of Android
devices make them an attractive alternative to pricey iPhones.
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But Androids market share has attened in the U.S. and Apple has picked up
momentum.

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Android isnt only a smartphone platform. Its also a tablet operating system. Tablets
will blow past desktop PCs in a few years, and will probably come close to sales of
portable (laptop or notebook) computers, too.

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PC growth has stalled since the iPad was rst released in 2010. Overall PC shipments
grew 2 percent last year, down from 14 percent in 2010.

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But Android tablets havent fared so well. Apples iPad dominates the market. (Note
that Amazons Kindle Fire and Barnes & Nobles Nook Tablet both run highly
customized (forked) versions of Android, but dont include any links to Google
services, so dont make any money for Google.)
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Apples market share is ~65 percent. Android tablets only have a ~15 percent market
share.

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Google just announced its rst Nexus tablet, the Nexus 7, made by Asus. Like the Nexus phones,
it represents the best possible Android experiences on a tablet, and gives other hardware
makers something to aim for. But its 7-inch screen, low price (starting at $199), and focus on
reading content make it more of a competitor to the Kindle Fire than the iPad.

Meanwhile, the market for tablets is evolving fast. Last week, Microsoft announced it would
break with 30 years of tradition and ship its own tablet-PC hybrid called Surface. It runs Windows
8not a mobile operating system, but the full desktop version of Windows, redesigned to work
better on touch screens. Surface will come in two versions, and will go on sale later this year for a
starting price around $500.

Microsoft doesnt really want to be in the hardware business. The margins are just too
great on Windows software(see chart). But if the PC vendors cant or wont step up
with competitive 2-in-1 tablet-PC hybrids, Microsoft will go to the mat with Surface
to keep Windows relevant.
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So heres a combined view of the smartphone and tablet markets. Android is in a


strong position, but its weaknesses are beginning to emerge.

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For instance, app developers make less money on Android. For every dollar a
developer earns from an iOS app, they only earn 24 cents from the same app on
Android.

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And theres a new kid in town who does pay them. The Amazon Appstores revenue
per active user almost matches the iTunes App Store. While Amazon only runs a
tablet platform, it sets a dangerous precedent for other OEMs who may be tempted
to fork Android and go it on their own.

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Evernote, with 34 million users, exemplies the problem. Android delivers the least
revenue per user of any platform. Blackberry is probably so high because its still used
by many businesspeople.

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Heres another view of the problem. Overall, the app economy for Apple is far bigger
than it is for Android.

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Developers want to get paid and will follow the money. As a result, developer interest
in Android has waned. The percentage of developers who say they are very
interested in working on Android has fallen almost 10 points in the past year.

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iOS takes the lions share of developers new project starts despite Androids
substantially larger market share. Apple has a developer network eect, which is
ultimately what really matters in the mobile platform wars. Developers create the
popular apps that draw customers to their phones.

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Consequently, Apple has been able to maintain its edge in total apps available

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Android also has a fragmentation problem. Its users are spread across 7 dierent
versions of the software, with the majority concentrated on four. They are then
further subdivided into dierent updates of the software. With every subsequent
software update, the platform becomes more fragmented.

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Only 7 percent of users run Ice Cream Sandwich, the latest version of the software.
The majority use Gingerbread, released in late 2010. Developers are reluctant to
embrace the latest version of Android because they wont reach a large audience with
the platforms most advanced features.

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A new update, Android 4.1 (Jelly Bean), which was unveiled this weeks at Googles
I/O conference, wont help matters

Android has not only platform fragmentation, but device fragmentation too. While
Samsung is the largest manufacturer by far, Android devices are made by 20+ OEMs
(with the majority made by 7).

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Android is slightly modied for every manufacturer, and then again for every device they produce.
These numerous little iterations can make developing on Android a headache for developers.
Each of these little dierences can make an app buggy or incompatible. It also makes it expensive
for carriers and manufacturers to test versions of Android on all these dierent devices.

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Which is why you get this: slow adoption of new versions of Android.

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iOS users, on the other hand, migrate to the latest software updates rapidly. This
chart is from David Smiths data. It tracks user migration to the latest iOS updates on
his Audiobooks app, which has 100 thousand weekly downloads, and gives a window
into iOS user behavior.

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But Google has an ace in the hole: Motorola!

Microsofts smartphone sales havent been growing much.

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But Motorola users are relatively active on their phones, according to Millennial
Medias measurement of ad impressions. This gives Google a good chance to display
new services and ads to these users, and to upsell them to new devices.

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Plus, Motorola gives Google a test bed for hardware innovations, either developed in-house or
acquired. For instance, Motorola would have been a great way for Google to seed the market for
NFC-enabled devices and its Google Wallet service. If new hardware feature prove popular on
Motorola devices, other Android hardware makers may be forced to follow.

The big question is whether Google can keep its current partners on board while it makes the
transition. Right now, their options arent so great. Windows Phone is in the middle of a platform
transition and hasnt proven popular with users at all. WebOS is on life support as an open source
project. Some handset makers and carriers are expressing interest in Mozillas Boot to Gecko
mobile platform (shown here), which is built on HTML5 and other web standards, but its still in
very early days. Samsung is big enough that it may decide to go it alone with its Bada platform.

To sum up: Android faces a lot of challenges. But while its easy to get caught up in
the monthly and quarterly market share numbers, its important not to lose sight of
the big picture. Over 100 million Americans, and billions of people around the world,
do not own smartphones. The smartphone race is just getting started.

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