210059 UE BA 4.

2: Quantitative Methoden der empirischen Sozialforschung 09 Dambck, Johanna- a0800545 Garstenauer, Georg- a0808202 Kaltenegger, Matthias- a0802996

SS

Fill, Anna- a0853313 Gehl, Oxana- a0847049

Assignment D (29.3.09)
1a) The research interest is to make predictions about the interrelations between national and European voting behaviour. By focusing on the elder new governments Greece, Portugal and Spain, they want to provide usable predictions about the future long-term impact of EPelections upon the stabilization of the party system in the comparable, even newer EU-EastEuropean democracies. More generally, they want to find out what lessons can be learned about the interrelations of first- and second-order elections in new democracies (Freire/ Teperoglou 2007: 103). 1b) - How do national factors influence EP-election voting behaviour? - To which extent are the EP-elections used by the voters as opportunities for defecting parties? - How does EP voting behaviour influence the anchoring of partisanship in new democracies? 2a) 1. Small, medium-sized and medium-small sized parties are more likely to perform better in EP elections. 2. Large parties are more likely to perform worse in EP elections. 3. Social and ideological anchors of partisanship are weaker in second-order elections. 4. EP elections are used by voters as a way to express their opinion about the performance of their national government. 2b) (1) + (2) Independent variable: size of the party Dependent variable: parties average voting outcome in EP elections by decade Data source: secondary data: www.ypes.gr; www.cne.pt; www.elec2004.mir.es (3) Independent variables: self-positioning on a left-right scale, education, subjective class belonging, Union membership, church attendance Dependent variables: vote for left/right parties, comparison between last national 1

210059 UE BA 4.2: Quantitative Methoden der empirischen Sozialforschung 09 Dambck, Johanna- a0800545 Garstenauer, Georg- a0808202 Kaltenegger, Matthias- a0802996

SS

Fill, Anna- a0853313 Gehl, Oxana- a0847049

and 2004 EP election Data source: secondary data: EES 2004 (4) Independent variables: left-right self-placement, time of voting in the national, electoral cycle Dependent variable: difference between the vote percentage of the party that control the national government between the prior first-order elections and the subsequent second-order election (Freire&Teperoglou 2007: 114) Data source: secondary data: EES 2004 3.) - Freire and Teperoglou are getting on with the theoretical framework of Schmitt. They follow the perspective of a second-order election model. - The idea of the electoral cycle, namely that the time during the national election cycle has an impact on the output of EP elections, is relate to the findings of SchmittFreire is testing the hypothesis with new data. - Schmitt found out, that post-communist democracies behave differently in EP elections. Freire researches the differences between the post-communist consolidating democracies and the group: Greece, Portugal and Spain. References: Freire, Andr; Teperoglou, Eftichia (2007): European Elections and National Politics: Lessons from the "New" Southern European Democracies. In: Journal of public 2007, Vol. 17, No. 1, 101122. Schmitt, Hermann (2005): The European Parliament Elections of June 2004: Still SecondOrder? In: West European Politics, 2005, Vol. 28, No. 3, 650-679. opinion and parties,