special RepORt

Business aviatiOn safety & lOsses

annual Review: 2011

Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

2011 - A mixed year

2011 was a mixed year for business aircraft as, although business jets showed improvement, business turboprops had a bad year.

Fatal Accident Rates

2011 might be described as a mixed year from the point of view of air safety. While business jets showed an improvement in their fatal accident rate, going from about one per 3,300 aircraft** in 2010 to one per 5,000 aircraft last year, business turboprops faired relatively poorly with a fatal accident rate in 2011 of one per 830 aircraft, compared with one per 1,400 aircraft in 2010. For business jets, 2011 also compares very favourably with earlier years the fatal accident rate for the decade of the 1990s was one per 600 aircraft, while that for the 2000s was one per 900 aircraft. On this basis, 2011 was the safest year ever for the class and continues the trend for improving safety that has seen the accident rate more than halve in the past 10 years. Although 2011 was a relatively poor year for business turboprops, this is really only in comparison with the business jets and with the good outcome the class had in 2010. 2011 was disappointing but the overall trend for an improving accident rate for the business turboprops continues. The fatal accident rate for business turboprops during the decade of the 1990s was one per 435 aircraft, while that for the 2000s was one per 560 aircraft. 2011s poor result was still on the trend line, but the accident rate for this class of aircraft, although getting better, is not improving at the same rate as that for business jets. Twenty years ago, on average, the fatal accident rate for business jets was about twice as good as that for business turboprops but, by the end of last year, the rate for business jets had become four times as good.

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

Fatal Accidents per 100 Aircraft - Business Jets and Turboprops (Excludes Acts of Violence)
0.40 0.35 Fatal Accidents per 100 Aircraft 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1990
Business Jets

1995
Business Turboprops

2000

2005

2010
Linear (Business Jets)

Linear (Business Turboprops)

Annual Fatal Accident Rates (Business Aircraft) Past 10 Years Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.05 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.06 Jets 0.12 0.18 0.19 0.15 0.16 0.19 0.20 Turboprops Fatal accidents per 100 aircraft at risk

2009 0.03 0.13

2010 0.03 0.07

2011 0.02 0.12

Fatal Accidents
Business jets suffered a total of only four fatal accidents last year, one fewer than in 2010 but the same number as in 2009. The past three years have shown a considerable improvement on earlier years when, typically, some seven or eight fatal accidents might have been expected in any given year. The number of fatal accidents in 2011 was about half the annual average for the last decade, 7.6, and also the 1990s average of 8.1. Business turboprops suffered 12 fatal accidents in 2011, five more than in 2010 but the same as in 2009. Again, as with business jets, the past three years have shown an improvement on earlier years, when 15 fatal accidents a year might have been considered typical. The number of fatal accidents in 2011, although showing an increase over 2010, was still down on the annual average for the last decade, 15.4, and also the 1990s average of 16.7.

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

Fatal Accidents - Business Jets and Turboprops (Excludes Acts of Violence)

30

25

20 Fatal Accidents

15

10

0 1990 Business Jets 1995 Business Turboprops 2000 2005 2010 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Jets)

5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Turboprops)

The reduced number of fatal accidents suffered by business jets over the past three years and, to a much lesser extent, the number suffered by business turboprops show the first real decrease in accident frequency for a long time over 20 years in the case of business jets and about 15 years for turboprops. In our report last year we expressed concern that the frequency of fatal accidents suffered by business aircraft was not showing any clear sign of decreasing, with the average annual number of these accidents having been more or less the same for a number of years. Safety is, of course, improving, with the fatal accident rate on a per-aircraft basis rapidly falling. However, this improvement in safety had only been keeping up with the growth of the fleet; it had not been enough to reduce the frequency of accidents. It is believed that the general public and many of the users of this class of aircraft are more likely to form their opinion about their safety from the number of times they hear about a crash. Therefore, reducing the frequency of fatal accidents is more important from the point of view of safety perception than just getting the accident rate down.
Annual Fatal Accidents (Business Aircraft) Past 10 Years Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5 11 7 6 8 9 Jets 10 15 16 13 14 17 Turboprops Fatal accidents involving passenger and/or crew deaths 2008 9 18 2009 4 12 2010 5 7 2011 4 12

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

Fatalities
As would be expected, the number of passenger and crew deaths as a result of business aircraft accidents in 2011 more or less followed the number of fatal accidents suffered during the year. Some 16 passengers and crew died in the four fatal accidents suffered by business jets in 2011, giving a simple average of four fatalities per fatal accident. Some 18 passengers and crew died in the five fatal accidents in 2010. 2011s result was very much better than the previous decades average of 23.4 and that for the 1990s, 35.4. Some 48 passengers and crew died in the 12 fatal accidents suffered by business turboprops in 2011, again giving a simple average of four fatalities per fatal accident. 2011s death toll was considerably worse than 2010s, when 24 people died in seven fatal accidents, but showed some improvement over 2009, which saw 56 fatalities from 12 fatal accidents. The annual average for the 2000s was 49.5 and for the 1990s it was 57.6. The passenger and crew fatality rate for 2011 for business jets was better than one per 12,500 seat years, compared with one per 11,100 seats in 2010. 2011 also showed a very considerable improvement on the one per 6,700 seats average for last decade and was about five times as good as the average of one per 2,500 seats in the 1990s.
Passenger/Crew Fatalities - Business Jets and Turboprops (Excludes Acts of Violence)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Number of Fatalities

1990

1994 1998 Business Jets 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Jets)

2002

2006 2010 Business Turboprops 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Turboprops)

Annual Fatalities (Business Aircraft) Past 10 Years Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 12 22 27 23 22 Jets 30 42 55 38 40 Turboprops Passenger and crew fatalities

2007 21 44

2008 39 55

2009 11 56

2010 18 24

2011 16 48

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

The worst accidents in 2011 were: 1) The Majuba Aviation Pilatus PC-12 accident in February, which killed seven passengers and two crew when the aircraft crashed into the sea during a go-around in poor visibility from Plettenberg Bay, South Africa; 2) The Sky Lounge Hawker 850XP, also in February, which crashed immediately after take-off from Sulaimaniyah, Iraq, killing four passengers and three crew; and 3) The Air Charter Services Pilatus PC-12 which crashed at Faridabad, India, in May while descending in-bound to Delhi, killing five passengers and two crew.

Fatality Rates
Fatality rates, on a deaths per 1,000 seat-years basis, in 2011 generally followed the pattern shown for fatal accidents, with business jets producing a relatively good result but business turboprops being poor. Business jets showed a small improvement on 2010, going from about one death per 11,100 seats to one per 12,500 seats last year. 2011 was not as good as 2009, when the fatality rate was one per 16,600 seats; however, 2009 had the lowest fatality rate since the class entered service and the past three years have all produced results that were very much better than average. The average fatality rate for the 2000s was one per 6,700 seats and for the 1990s it was one per 2,600 seats. Turboprops continued to disappoint, with a fatality rate in 2011 of one per 2,300 seats, compared with one per 4,500 in 2010. The fatality rate in 2009 was one per 2,000 seats while the average for the last decade was also one per 2,000. The average for the 1990s was one per 1,500 seats. It is perhaps worrying that, although the turboprop business fatality rate over the past 10 years has shown an improvement over the 1990s, there has been little or no improvement in the rate in recent years.

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

Passenger/Crew Fatalities per 1,000 Seats - Business Jets & Turboprops (Excludes Acts of Violence)
1.20

1.00

Fatalities per 1000 Seats

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00 1990 Business Jets 1995 Business Turboprops 2000 2005 2010 Linear (Business Jets)

Linear (Business Turboprops)

Annual Fatality Rates (Business Aircraft) Past 10 Years Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0.09 0.15 0.18 0.15 0.14 0.12 Jets 0.32 0.44 0.56 0.38 0.39 0.42 Turboprops Fatalities (passengers and crew) per 1,000 seats

2008 0.22 0.51

2009 0.06 0.51

2010 0.09 0.22

2011 0.08 0.43

Total Losses
Based on provisional advice, business jets suffered only 11 total losses during 2011, half the number in 2010 but slightly up from the nine suffered in 2009. 2011 also showed a marked improvement over the average for the last decade, 18, and that for the 1990s, 18.3. However, based on past experience it is likely that a number of 2011s substantial damage accidents, which we are currently counting as major partial losses, may turn out to be total losses (constructive total losses), but it is thought unlikely that the result for the year will worsen significantly. Although business jets apparently suffered relatively few total losses in 2011, the longer-term trend shows no improvement in accident frequency It would seem that we can normally expect something between 15 or 20 total losses, on average, every year. Business turboprops suffered 34 total losses in 2011 but this included a significant number of non-operational losses as the result of the tsunami at Sendai, Japan, last March and, to a lesser extent, the Bangkok floods last October. There has been no improvement in the frequency of turboprop total losses over the past 20 years.

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

45

Total Losses - Business Jets and Turboprops (Excludes Acts of Violence)

Includes non-operational losses

40

35

Number of Total Losses

30

25

20

15

10

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

Total Losses - Business Jets 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Losses - Business Jets)

Business Turboprops 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Turboprops)

Annual Number of Total Losses (Business Aircraft) Past 10 Years Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 14 18 19 23 20 24 22 Jets 17 26 28 27 26 27 31 Turboprops Operational and Non-Operational Total Losses (data is provisional)

2009 9 30

2010 22 25

2011 11 34

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

Total Losses per 100 Aircraft - Business Jets and Turboprops (Excludes Acts of Violence)
0.60

0.50

Total Losses per 100 Aircraft

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

1990 Business Jets

1995 Business Turboprops

2000

2005

2010 Linear (Business Jets)

Linear (Business Turboprops)

Annual Total Loss Rate (Business Aircraft) Past 10 Years Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.19 0.15 0.17 Jets 0.21 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.30 Turboprops Operational and Non-Operational Total Losses per 100 aircraft

2008 0.15 0.34

2009 0.06 0.32

2010 0.13 0.26

2011 0.06 0.35

NOTES *'Business Jets and Turboprops'. Our definition includes all those aircraft types generally considered to be targeted at the private/corporate executive market but excluding 'airliner types', which may be used as executive/VVIP transports. This analysis is based on the class of aircraft and is not limited to just those aircraft actually in private/corporate use. Many of these 'business' aircraft are operated for passenger or cargo air taxi/charter, aerial work etc. ** Accident Rates. Currently we do not have good data for the number of flights etc on a global basis for this class of aircraft to allow us to calculate accident rates in the form of, for instance, 'fatal accidents per million flights'. However, we do have good fleet data and this allows us to use 'aircraft years' (average number of aircraft in the fleet) and 'seat years' as measures of exposure when calculating accident rates. Nevertheless, although these rates do give a good indication of trends over the longer term, possible changes in utilisation from year to year should be borne in mind when comparing one year with another.

Paul Hayes, London, 16 April, 2012

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

The information contained in our databases and used in this report has been assembled from many sources and, while reasonable care has been taken, we are unable to give any warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or suitability for any purpose and the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Ascend Worldwide Limited, its officers, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred. In providing this data, no consideration has been made of the interests and concerns of any third party and Ascend denies any responsibility howsoever arising to any third party in the use of this data.

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Monthly Accident Summaries

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

World Aircraft Accident Summary (WAAS)

Researched and published on behalf of the UK CAA, WAAS includes detailed descriptions for more than 8,000 accidents involving jet and turbo-powered aircraft and helicopters.

Operator Statistics (JOS)

A consistent and complete statistical time series of exposure (flight hours, flights, passengers carried etc) and losses (accidents) extending over 45 years across all airlines and commuter operators (some 3,000 airlines). A version of the database is also available for turbine helicopter and turboprop fixed-wing operations. Data is held quarterly at the aircraft type and operator level covering the entire period of operation. Sold as a whole or as tailored sub sets.

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A special sub-set of our huge JOS time series database, ALR provides annual figures for each of the major airliner types; covering different measures of exposure, accidents and fiveyear accident rates.

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Business Aviation Safety & Losses Annual review: 2011

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