SUMMARY

POSITIONS
+ SELL OIL

Key Trade: Sell Oil

18th June 2012 John Lewis Mark Sturdy
Authorised and regulated by the FSA

Disclaimer

Summary

SUMMARY

POSITIONS
+ SELL OIL

18th June SELL Sep 12 OIL @ 82.71. Stop @ 85.45 Take Profit @ 76.01

Disclaimer

(1) TECHNICAL 18th June SELL Sep 12 OIL @ 82.71. Stop @ 85.45 Take Profit @ 76.01
us@cl.1 114.83 H igh 115

WEEKLY continuation Chart

110

103.37-74 High

105

100

95

SUMMARY

50.0% 90.52 High 61.8%

The breakdown of the oil market first through the 103.37 Prior High and then the combined supports at 90.52 both horizontal and diagonal, leaves the market very little to go except down.

90

Positions POSITIONS
SELL OIL + SELL OIL
Low 75.71

85

80

75
Prior High 112.77 May 2011 50% Fibonacci retracement support on the bull r un from early 2009 low

110.71 High

70

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

N ov D ec 2011

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

N ov D ec 2012

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

C rude Oil Light Sweet Sep 12

Neckline

104 103 102 101 100 99

Daily chart The market is unable to bounce off the supports at 81.87 and 82.63. Add to shorts now and on a break down through that band of support.

96.10-36 Prior Low resistance

98 97 96 95 94

Stop @ 85.45
89.90 Low

93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 83

$41.15 Prior High support from the Monthly continuaition chart

82.63 Low 81.87 Low

82 81 80 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000

$39.99

$33.70
2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2 July

Disclaimer

(2) FUNDAMENTAL 18th June SELL Sep 12 OIL @ 82.71. Stop @ 85.45 Take Profit @ 76.01

The Oil market enjoyed a brief rally as stocks rallied on talk of a new stimulus and as Central Banks made known their plans to intervene heavily if Greek voters rejected those parties supporting the rescue deal.
SUMMARY

In the event Greece looks set for a pro rescue government, but the rally has already stalled. Where now?

Positions POSITIONS
SELL OIL + SELL OIL

We judge the Euro zone is doomed to recession. The global economy at risk and that includes the US which once this years Presidential race is over will have to face her own growing debt crisis.
In short reduced economic activity means reduced demand for energy. Add in the growing oil reserves of North America and the Oil price looks too high.

We recommend going short.

Disclaimer

SUMMARY

POSITIONS
+ SELL OIL

SEVEN DAYS AHEAD Authorised and Regulated by the FSA 124 REGENTS PARK ROAD LONDON NW18XL TEL +44 (0) 7849 922573 E-MAIL msturdy@sevendaysahead.com, jlewis@sevendaysahead.com WEB SITE SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM The material and information set out in this research is not intended to be a quote of an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Any expression of opinion is based on sources believed to be reasonably reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The material and information herein is general and for informational purposes only. Although Seven Days Ahead endeavours to provide useful information they make no guarantee as to the accuracy or reliability of the research. The derivative market comprises volatility and considerable risks. To the maximum extent permitted by law no responsibility or liability can be accepted by Seven Days Ahead, any company or employee within its group for any action taken as a result of the information contained in this presentation. You are requested not to rely on any representation in this research and to seek specific advice from your accountant, legal adviser or financial services adviser when dealing with specific circumstances.

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