Technical Trading Guide To Major Markets 19th June 2012

19th June 2012
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasurynote CBOT US Ten Year Notes treasury Note + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
the technical traders guide to major markets

Mark Sturdy
Authorised and regulated by the FSA
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
Disclaimer
summary
Summary Currencies
+ Dollar Euro + Dollar Sterling + Dollar Yen + Sterling Euro Stay SQUARE. Stay SQUARE. SELL a break of 1.5278. Go LONG Dollar with Stops beneath 75.0 Stay SHORT Euros with Stops above 0.8230
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei Stay SHORT (Sep12). Stops above 1347.60 Stay SQUARE (Sep 12) Stay SHORT beneath 5490 (Sep 12). Add on a break of 5321. Stay SQUARE (Sep 12) ;
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB Stay LONG with stops beneath 132-26 (Sep 12) Stay SQUARE (Sep 12) Stay LONG (Sep 12) above 143.37.
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling Stay SQUARE (Jun13.); Stay SQUARE Jun13). Stay LONG above 99.05 (Jun13);
Commodities
+ Oil Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex Stay SHORT (Sep 12) with Stops above 89.90; SELL more on a break down through 81.87 Go SQUARE (Aug 12).
Currencies: Currencies Dollar Euro
CURRENCIES: The Dollar resurgence against the Euro and Sterling may have run its
course. Note the structure of Sterling Euro: that, despite great volatility, looks for the Euro to weaken.
Summary
Euro - US Dollar
Currencies
H igh 1.3812
1.6017 High
1.60 1.55
1.4941 High
Dollar Euro quarterly spot cash chart

The long-term chart lacks clarity.
1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30

1.1929 High
Stocks
1.25 1.20
1.1880 Low
1.15 1.10 1.05
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
0.8230 Low
1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80
Interest rates
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Commodities
More
Currencies: Dollar Euro

Euro - US Dollar 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.37
Dollar Euro weekly spot cash chart

Note the large H&S Top. And the minimum move implied by the pattern is down to 1.15 or so. The rally beneath the neckline has produced another H&S pattern which has completed. The two together are compelling... Look closer.
Summary Currencies
1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26
1.2629 Low
1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.20
Stocks
D ec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
1.1880
1.19 1.18 1.17
N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
N ov D ec 2012
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep
Euro - US Dollar 1.355 1.350
Dollar Euro daily spot chart

The good resistance lies above the market at 1.2628-46 which may yet stymie the rally. Note the failure to hold above the band of resistance 1.2646- 1.2667. Wait for the close.
Neckline 1
1.345 1.340
Bonds
1.335 1.330 1.325 1.320 1.315 1.310 1.305 1.300
Interest rates
1.3006 Low
Neckline 2
61.8%
1.295 1.290 1.285

50.0% 1.2667 High
1.280 1.275 1.270
1.2628 Low 38.2%
1.265
1.2646
1.260 1.255
Commodities
1.2291 Low
1.250 1.245 1.240 1.235 1.230 1.225 1.220 6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
More
Currencies: Dollar Sterling

U K Pound Sterling - U S D ollar 2.20 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.90 1.85 1.80 1.75 1.70
Dollar Sterling Quarterly spot cash chart

Cable has been dithering for several years around the lower diagonal of a large bear rising wedge....
Summary Currencies
1.7050 Low
1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35
Note that the market has failed twice at the 1.7050 resistance. And note well the possible bear continuation triangle in the making ... Look closer.
1.3688 Low
1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10
Stocks
1.7365
1.05 1.00 0.95 81 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15
UK Pound Sterling - US Dollar
1.85
Dollar Sterling monthly spot cash chart

That possible triangle in detail. And the completion of the Triangle requires a break of 1.5278 or just below.
Bonds
1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60
1.7050 Low
Interest rates
1.55
1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35
Look closer.
1.4237
Commodities
1.3505
1.30 1.25 1.20
1.15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
More
Currencies: Dollar Sterling

U K Pound Sterling - U S D ollar
1.80
Dollar Sterling weekly spot cash chart
1.7050 Low f rom 2005

1.7041
1.75
1.70
Summary
1.5278 Low
Currencies
The market is approaching the important level 1.5278 a break of 1.60 which would signal the completion of 1.55 the continuation Triangle and the break of the successive Prior Lows, 1.50 possibly, the completion of a 1.45 complex H&S top.
1.65 1.40
1.6745 High
1.35
Stocks
1.30
S O N
D 2009
M A M
J A
S O
N D 2010
M A M
J J
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J
A S O
N D
2012 M
A M J
A S
U K Pound Sterling - U S D ollar 1.635

100.0% High 1.6163
1.630 1.625 1.620 1.615
Dollar Sterling daily spot cash chart
Bonds
1.6062 High
1.610 1.605 1.600 1.595

61.8%
1.590 1.585
Interest rates
Only a breakdown through 1.5238 would really get the bears going.
50.0%
1.580 1.575 1.570
38.2%
1.565 1.560 1.555 1.550
Commodities
1.5238 Low
1.545
1.5349 Low from Dec 2010
1.540 1.535
1.5349 prior low
1.530 1.525 1.520 1.515 2 July
17
24
31 7 14 N ov ember
21
28
5 12 19 D ecember
26
2 9 2012
16
23
30 6 13 February
20
27
5 12 March
19
26
2 9 April
16
23
30 7 May
14
21
28
4 11 June
18
25
Currencies: Dollar Yen

U S D ollar - Japanese Yen 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125
Dollar Yen monthly spot cash chart

The move down through the MAJOR Pivotal Prior Low 79.78 is under question.
Summary Currencies
79.78 Low 101.70 Low 101.30 Low
120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80
Stocks
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
75 70
U S D ollar - Japanese Yen
99 98 97 96
Dollar Yen weekly spot cash chart

The Prior Lows are powerful resistance above the market at the band from at 84.92/88.73. Note the market drive in the trading range since the beginning of 2012.
Bonds
95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88
Interest rates
Low 88.73
87 86 85 84
H igh 1.3812
Low 84.92
1.1927 Prior H igh
H igh 1.3668
Support
83 82
79.41 High
81 80
79.78 Low from cont. chart 1995
79 78 77
Commodities
Low 77.07
The pull-back should find support at 79.41and beneath.
76 75 74 73 72
More
J J A
S O N
D 2009
M A M
J J A
S O
N D 2010
M A M
J J
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J J
A S O
N D
2012 M A M J
J A S
Currencies: Dollar Yen

U S D ollar - Japanese Yen
Major Prior Low resist ance 84.92 Nov 2009

84.07 High
85.5 85.0 84.5
Dollar Yen daily spot cash chart
84.17 high
84.0 83.5 83.0

81.59 Low
82.5 82.0
80.33 - Good resistance. Note the prior high supports at 79.41 and 78.28. The markets break up through the down trend diagonal is important.
61.8%
81.5
50.0%
81.0
80.33 low
Summary
79.41 High 38.2%
80.5 80.0 79.5
Currencies
76.33 Low 76.15 75.58 Low
High 78.28
79.0 78.5 78.0 77.5 77.0 76.5 76.0 75.5 75.0
Stay square.
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + OSE Nikkei 225
10 17 October 24
31 7 14 N ov ember
21
28
5 12 19 D ecember
26
2 9 2012
16
23
30 6 13 February
20
27
5 12 March
19
26
2 9 April
16
23
30 7 May
14
21
28
4 11 June
18
25
2 July
Bonds
+ CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Liffe Euribor + Liffe Short Sterling
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Comex Gold
Support
Currencies: Sterling Euro

Euro-UK Pound St erling
0.9802 Pivotal High
Sterling Euro monthly spot cash chart

0.95 0.90
0.9040
The market is testing 0.8071.
0.85
Summary Currencies
0.8071 Low
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
Stocks
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.55
Euro-UK Pound St erling 0.99 0.98

0.9802 Pivotal High
0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93

0.9040
Sterling Euro weekly spot cash chart

The rising wedge has been completed driving the market on down to complete a H&S Reversal too. Watch the rally back to the neckline at 0.82 where there should be good resistance.
Bonds
0.92 0.91 0.90
Interest rates
0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.85

0.8486 Low
0.84 0.83 0.82
Commodities
0.8071 Low
0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S
Stay short with Stops above 0.82. Target 0.74.
More
Currencies: Sterling Euro

0.8526
Euro-UK Pound Sterling
0.850
0.8503
0.845
Sterling Euro daily spot cash chart

That was sharp rally, but the neckline lies above the market good resistance still.
0.840
0.835
0.830
Summary
0.8214 Low
0.825
0.820
Currencies
Neckline
0.815
GAP 0.8098 - 0.8078
STAY SHORT.
0.810
0.8071 Prior Pivotal Low June 2010
0.805
0.800
0.7952 Low
0.795
Stocks
2 9 2012 16 23 30 6 13 February 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
Bonds
Interest rates
Commodities
Stocks
STOCKS: The bounce in stocks looks to be struggling with the resistances

reached in each case which are powerful and need to be overcome for the bulls to really take heart see for instance the S&P especially.
Summary Currencies
Stocks: CME S&P 500

S&P 500 Stock Index CME C ontinuous 1700 1650 1600 1550 1500
High 1372.70
1574 Prior all-time High from March 2000
CME S&P 500 monthly cont. futures chart

The LONG RUN double failure at 1553 and 1555 - right at the 1574 High from 2003 has been very negative for the market longterm.. Now we have another Double Failure at 1372.
1450 1400 1350 1300 1250
Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900
Bonds
767.50 Prior Low Piv ot f rom 2002
850 800 750
700
665.7 Low
650
Interest rates
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
600
Commodities
More
1573.50 High 2007
Stocks: CME S&P 500

S & P 5 00 S to ck Ind ex CME Con ti n uo us
100.0% 1372.70 High
Prior high Piv ot 1342.30
1288.70
Prior H igh support 1216.70
1 46 0 1 45 0 1 44 0 1 43 0 1 42 0 1 41 0 1 40 0 1 39 0 1 38 0 1 37 0 1 36 0 1 35 0 1 34 0 1 33 0 1 32 0 1 31 0 1 30 0 1 29 0 1 28 0 1 27 0 1 26 0 1 25 0 1 24 0 1 23 0 1 22 0 1 21 0 1 20 0 1 19 0 1 18 0 1 17 0 1 16 0
CME S&P 500 cont weekly cont. chart

The market smashed the Prior High band of support THIS IS A MAJOR FAILURE But note the bounce from the support at the prior High at 1288.70 (cont. chart)
Summary Currencies
1 15 0 1 14 0 1 13 0 1 12 0 1 11 0 1 10 0 1 09 0 1 08 0 1 07 0 1 06 0 1 05 0 1 04 0 1 03 0 1 02 0
1076.10 Low
Stocks Stocks
+ CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
Sep Oct N ov D ec 2010 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep N ov D ec 2011 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep N ov D ec 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
1 01 0 1 00 0 9 90 9 80
1411 1408.90
S&P 500 St ock Index CME Sep 12 1405.20
1420 1410 1400
CME S&P 500 SEP12 Day chart

The detail: the general bounce off the 1288 level in the week chart was catalyzed by the Island reversal. But the bounce has found good resistance at the 1346-48 band ( also a Fibonacci level). Stand back and wait for a break either way.
Bonds
1390 1380 1370 1360

61.8% 1346.80 1348.40
1350 1340 1330
Interest rates
1320 1310 1300 1290

Support from Pr ior High 1288.70
1280 1270
1259.50 Low
1260 1250 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000
Commodities
Low 665.70
More
12
19
26
2 April
16
23
30 May
14
21
29
4 June
11
18
25
2 July
Stocks: Eurex EuroStoxx 50

D J Euro Stoxx 50 Index EU REX Continuous
5525 Prior All Tim e High
6000
5500
5000
Eurex EuroStoxx 50 monthly continuation futures chart

Note the stalled rally of 2009/2010 at 3050. From which the recent fall created a bear Double Top But note the failed rally back.. through 2333
4500
4000
Nec ki ne res i stan ce
3500
Summary Currencies
1827 Low
High 3050
3000
2500
Low 2333
2000
Stocks
CME S&P 500 + Standard & Poors 500 + Eurex EuroStoxx 50 Liffe FTSE + FTSE 100 100 OSE Nikkei + Nikkei 225 225
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
DJ E u ro Sto xx 50 In de x E URE X Con ti n uo us
3 50 0 3 45 0 3 40 0 3 35 0 3 30 0 3 25 0 3 20 0 3 15 0 3 10 0 3 05 0 3 00 0 2 95 0 2 90 0 2 85 0 2 80 0 2 75 0 2 70 0
Eurex EuroStoxx 50 weekly continuation futures chart

The Double Top pattern is rather diffuse ... NB. the pull back has broken the rising diagonal support, completing a BEAR Rising Wedge. Look closer.
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Euro Bund TSE Ten Year JGB + Ten year Japanese Bond
61.8% 2669 Low
2 65 0 2 60 0 2 55 0 2 50 0 2 45 0 2 40 0
Interest rates
CME rates + DollarEurodollar Liffe Euribor + Euribor rates + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
Low fr om weekly continuation chart 2333 AND COMPLETION LEVEL OF DOUBLE TOP
2 35 0 2 30 0 2 25 0 2 20 0 2 15 0 2 10 0 2 05 0
Commodities
Low 1784 1924 Low
2 00 0 1 95 0 1 90 0 1 85 0 1 80 0 1 75 0 1 70 0
More
S O N
D 2009
M A M
S O
N D 2010
M A M
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J
A S O
N D
2012 M
A M J
A S
Stocks: Eurex EuroStoxx 50

D J Euro Stoxx 50 Index EU REX Sep 12 2550 2500 2450 2400
Eurex EuroStoxx 50 Sep12 futures chart

Remain short with Stops above 2177. A push back through 2170 has yet to be completed. Watch the market closely.
61.8%
2350
50.0% 2290 Low
2300
2250
Summary Currencies
38.2%
2200
Low 2170
2150
2100
Low 2084
2050
2000
15000 10000
Stocks
6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
5000
x1 00
Bonds
Interest rates
Commodities
Stocks: Liffe FTSE 100

High 6995
FTSE 100 Index LIF FE C ontinuous
7000
6500
High 6086.50
Liffe FTSE 100 monthly continuation futures chart

The market is in a massive trading range.
6000
5500
Summary
Low 4757
5000
4500
What is the character of the price action from 2010?
Currencies
4000
(It may yet be a H&S top...)
3500
Stocks
Low 3250
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + Liffe FTSE 100 + Nikkei 225 225 OSE Nikkei
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
High 6995 from Index LIF FE C ontinuous FTSE 100 Dec 1999
7000
6796-6802 Prior Highs from 2007
6500
Liffe FTSE 100 weekly cont. futures chart

There is the making of a triple top certainly.
Bonds
6000 High High 6086.50
6000
5500
5490 Low
61.8%
Interest rates
50.0% 4757 Low Low 4701.50
5000
Now the market has bounced from the rising diagonal support. Coincident with that is the Fibonacci support too...
4500
Commodities
4000
161.8%
Low 3443 March 2009
3500
More
J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S
Stocks: Liffe FTSE 100

High 5885
FTSE 100 Index Sep 12 5900 5850 5800 5750 5700 5650 5600
61.8%
Liffe FTSE 100 Sept 12 daily futures chart

The Double Bottom has reached its minimum move - as well as trying to substantiate the penetration of the 5463 resistance. Note too, the Fib resistance at 5530 the pull-back from that and the fall back beneath 5463 suggest a lack of real bull impetus.
5550 5500
Summary Currencies
5450
5463 High 5351 High
5400 5350 5300 5250 5200
5187 Low
5150 15000 10000
Stocks
5 March 12 19 26 2 April 10 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
5000
x1 0
Bonds
Interest rates
Commodities
Stocks: OSE Nikkei 225

N ikkei Stock Av erage 225 (OSE) Continuous 45000 40000 35000
30000
OSE Nikkei 225 quarterly continuation futures chart

In 2008 the market traded down to the Pivotal level of the 7600 low and bounced hard. A trading range dominates..
25000
H igh 18320
20000
Summary Currencies
15000
10000
Low 7600 Low 6830
30000
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + OSE Nikkei 225
1988
20000 10000
x1 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
N ikkei Stock Av erage 225 (OSE) Continuous
Bonds
Neckline resistance
19500 19000 18500 18000 17500 17000 16500 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 13000
11390
OSE Nikkei 225 monthly cont. futures chart

There is a lack of structural clarity within that range.....
12500 12000 11500
Interest rates
11610 Low
11000
10200
10500 10000 9500 9000
Commodities
Low 7600 6830-6960
8500 8000 7500 7000
6500 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
More
Stocks: OSE Nikkei 225

N ikkei Stock Av erage 225 (OSE) Continuous 14500 14000 13500 13000 12500 11610 Resistance f rom Prior Low 12000 11500 H igh 10890 11000
OSE Nikkei 225 weekly cont. futures chart

That range in detail.
Summary Currencies
10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 Low 7800 8000 7500 7000
Low 7600 from April 2003

6830-6960
Stocks
+ Standard & Poors 500 CME S&P 500 + European DJ Stoxx 50 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + FTSE 100 100 Liffe FTSE + OSE Nikkei 225
O N D 2008 A M J J A S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J
6500 6000 A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 A M J J A S
10210 (OSE) N ikkei Stock Av erage 225 High Sep 12
10300 10200 10100 10000 9900
OSE Nikkei 225 daily Sep12 futures chart

There is no base yet in place to encourage the bears.
Bonds
61.8%
9800 9700 9600 9500 9400 9300

50.0%
9200 9100
Interest rates
38.2%
9000 8900 8800
Indeed, the struggle to bet above the fib resistance at 8700 is interesting.
23.6%
8700 8600 8500 8400 8300

8220 Low
8200 8100 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000
Commodities
9 2012 16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
Bonds
BONDS: Market are now back on good support formed by strong mediumterm continuation patterns - see especially the bunds and the TNotes. So for the moment the bull trends remain in place, if under critical scrutiny.
Summary Currencies
Bonds: CBOT Ten Year Notes

Note US Treasury 10 Year COMP Continuous 140 139 138 137 136 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91
128-22.5
128-01
CBOT Ten Year Notes monthly futures continuation chart

The market has broken through its all-time-highs.
121-15
120-14 117-09
Stocks
The band 128-01/22.5 remains enormously powerful support beneath the market.
Now look closer.
Bonds
+ CBOT Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
^32
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Commodities
More

Note US Treasury 10 Year COMP Continuous 138 137 136 135 131-30 High 134 133 132 128-22.5 High from Dec 2008 131 130 129
CBOT Ten Year Notes weekly futures continuation chart

The market is bouncing on that support band 128-01/22.5. And now has broken up through the top of the triangle setting the market on a new bull leg. Minimum move of the triangle? About 137.50.
128-01 High f rom Nov 2010
128 127 126 125
Summary Currencies
112-25.5 Low
124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110
Stocks
^32
J A
S O N
D 2009
M A M
J J A
S O
N D 2010
M A M
J J
A S O
N D 2011
M A
M J J
A S O
N D
2012 M A M J
J A S
Note US Treasury 10 Year COMP Continuous
137^16 137^00 136^24 136^16 136^08 136^00 135^24 135^16 135^08 135^00 134^24 134^16 134^08 134^00 133^24 133^16 133^08 133^00 132^24 132^16 132^08 132^00 131^24 131^16 131^08 131^00 130^24 130^16 130^08 130^00 129^24 129^16 129^08 129^00 128^24 128^16 128^08 128^00 127^24 127^16 127^08 127^00 126^24 126^16 126^08 126^00 125^24 125^16 125^08 125^00 124^24 124^16 124^08 124^00 123^24 123^16 ^32123^08
CBOT Ten Year Notes cont. futures chart
Bonds
+ CBOT Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
131-20.5 High 131-30 High
Interest rates
The rally is ratcheting better on the supports from prior Highs. And the completion of the continuation Triangle. Note the bounce from the top of the Triangle.
Commodities
Stay long with stops beneath 131-20.5.
More
February
April
May
June
July
August September
N ov ember
2012
February
April
May
June
July
August September

N ote US Treasury 10 Year C OMP Sep 12 135* 135* 135* 134* 134* 134* 134* 133* 133* 133* 133* 132* 132* 132* 132* 131* 131* 131* 131* 130* 130* 130* 130* 129* 129* 129* 129* 128* 128* 128* 128* 127*
^3 2
CBOT Ten Year Notes daily Sep 12 futures chart

Note the sharp pull-back to the Prior High supports.
132-26 High
131-30/20
132-5.5 High
131-08 High
Summary Currencies
128-01/22 Prior Highs from 2010/2008
The important horizontals from the weekly continuation chart are added support beneath too.
15000 10000
Stocks
19 27 3 9 2012 17 23 30 6 13 February 21 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
5000
x1 00
Bonds
+ CBOT Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
Interest rates
Commodities
Bonds: Eurex Ten Year Bund

Euro Bund C ontinuous
161.8% 161.8% 100.0%
150 145 140
Eurex Ten Year Bund monthly futures continuation chart

The markets rally broke the All Time Highs 134.77 creating powerful support at that level.
124.60 High 126.53
134.77
135 130 125 120 119.86 115
Summary
110
Currencies
105
100
95
90
85
Stocks
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
15000 10000 5000

x1 00
Euro Bund C ontinuous
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Eurex Ten Year Bund + Ten year Japanese Bond TSE Ten Year JGB
134.77 High
Interest rates
118.48 Prior H igh Piv ot
119.86 Low
Commodities
109.66 Low
150 149 148 147 146 145 144 143 142 141 140 139 138 137 136 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109
Eurex Ten Year Bund weekly cont. futures Chart
Establishing good support at the top of the continuation triangle 142.00 or so. Look closer.
109.66 Low
S O N D 2009 M A M J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S
More
Bonds: Eurex Ten Year Bund

Euro Bund C ontinuous 149.0 148.5 148.0 147.5 147.0 146.5 146.0 145.5 145.0 144.5 144.0 143.5 143.0 142.5 142.0 141.5 141.0 140.5 140.0 139.5 139.0 138.5 138.0 137.5 137.0 136.5 136.0 135.5 135.0 134.5 134.0 133.5 133.0 132.5 132.0 131.5 131.0 130.5 130.0
Eurex Ten Year Bund Sep 12 Weekly futures chart
140.52 High
140.23 High
Summary Currencies
The succession of prior Highs ( from both continuation charts and the Jun 12 chart) beneath the market are now good support ...
Stocks
August September October N ov ember D ecember 2012 February March April May June July August
September
Euro Bund Sep 12

145.97 High
143.40 High
Bonds
Prior High Pivots from continuation chart 140.23/52
142.85 High
138.24 HIgh
119.86 Low
Interest rates
118.48 Prior H igh Piv ot
147.0 146.5 146.0 145.5 145.0 144.5 144.0 143.5 143.0 142.5 142.0 141.5 141.0 140.5 140.0 139.5 139.0 138.5 138.0 137.5 137.0 136.5 136.0 135.5 135.0 134.5 134.0 133.5 133.0
Eurex Ten Year Bund Daily Sep12 futures Chart

Note the break of the diagonal support and the approach to the Horizontal from Prior Highs.
Yet for the moment the mediumterm bull trend remains intact...
Commodities
9 2011 19 26 2 9 2012 16 23 30 6 13 February 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25
10000
5000
x1 00
2 July
Bonds: TSE Ten Year JGB

Japanese Gov ernment Bond 10 Year T Continuousjp@LTGB.1
145.28 High
144.31 High
146.5 146.0 145.5 145.0 144.5 144.0 143.5 143.0 142.5 142.0 141.5 141.0 140.5 140.0 139.5 139.0 138.5 138.0 137.5 137.0 136.5
TSE Ten Year JGB monthly futures continuation chart

There is a lack of structure bulls need the market to break the band of Prior Highs 144.31145.28....
Summary Currencies
136.0 135.5 135.0 134.5 134.0 133.5 133.0 132.5 132.0 131.5 131.0 130.5 130.0 129.5 129.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Look closer.
Stocks
130.84
Japanese Gov ernment Bond 10 Year T Continuousjp@LTGB.1
High f rom 2003 @ 145.28
146.0 145.5
Bonds
+ Ten year US Treasury Note CBOT US Ten Year Notes + Ten year Euro Bund Eurex Ten Year Bund + TSE Ten Year JGB
144.31 High
145.0 144.5 144.0

143.37 High 143.07 High
TSE Ten Year JGB weekly continuation futures Chart
143.5 143.0 142.5
Interest rates
141.17 High
The range now looks to act as good support.
142.0
141.52
141.5 141.0 140.5 140.0
Commodities
138.16 Low
139.5 139.0 138.5 138.0
More
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov D ec 2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
N ov D ec
2012 Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Bonds: TSE Ten Year JGB

Japanese Gov ernment Bond 10 Year TSE Sep 12
143.96 High
144.0
143.43 High
TSE Ten Year JGB Sep 12 futures chart

The rally through the Prior Highs 142.69, 143.07 was full of bull potential.
143.5
143.0
142.5
142.11 High
Summary Currencies
142.0
141.5
The support from the Prior High at 143.43 looks to have held.
141.0
140.5
50000
Stocks
0
20
27
5 March
12
19
26
2 April
16
23
30 7 May
14
21
28
4 June
11
18
25
2 July
Bonds
Interest rates
Commodities
Interest rates
SHORT INTEREST RATE FUTURES: The breakout of the long-term range in the Short Sterling is important and powerfully bullish.
Summary Currencies
Interest rates: CME Eurodollar rates

E uro do ll a r 3 Mo nth Co mp os ite J un 13 9 9.9
99.5050
9 9.8 9 9.7 9 9.6 9 9.5 9 9.4 9 9.3
98.7750
9 9.2 9 9.1 9 9.0 9 8.9 9 8.8 9 8.7 9 8.6 9 8.5
CME Eurodollar rates monthly Jun13 futures chart

The long march of the Eurodollars the market has been ratcheting better but we have been pausing beneath 99.57 since mid 2011
Stocks
9 8.4 9 8.3 9 8.2 9 8.1 9 8.0 9 7.9 9 7.8 9 7.7 9 7.6 9 7.5 9 7.4 9 7.3 9 7.2 9 7.1 9 7.0
Bonds
9 6.9 9 6.8 9 6.7 9 6.6 9 6.5 7 00 00 0 6 00 00 0 5 00 00 0 4 00 00 0 3 00 00 0 2 00 00 0 1 00 00 0
Interest rates
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
N ov D ec 2012
Feb Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Commodities
More
Interest rates: CME Eurodollar rates

Eurodollar 3 Month C omposite Jun 13 99.65 99.60
99.46 High
99.55 99.50 99.45 99.40 99.35 99.30 99.25

Low 99.2450
CME Eurodollar rates weekly JUN13 futures chart

The market sideways consolidation beneath 99.5050 has been prolonged.
99.20
99.15 Low
99.15 99.10
Summary
Low 99.1150
99.05 99.00
Currencies
98.95 98.90 98.85 98.80 98.75
Stocks
July August September October N ov ember D ecember 2012 February March April May June
45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 x1 05000 July
Eurodollar 3 Month C omposite Jun 13

99.46, 99.5150 Highs
99.50
CME Eurodollar rates daily JUN 13 futures chart

The market is ratcheting better but the trading range looks unlikely to be broken. Stand clear.
Bonds
99.45
99.40
99.35
99.30
Interest rates
+ CME Eurodollar + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Sterling rates Liffe Short Sterling
99.27 Low
99.25
Low 99.2450
99.20
99.15 Low 99.1150 Low 99.1050
99.15
Commodities
15 22 29 6 13 D ecember 20 28 4 10 2012 18 24 31 7 14 February 22 28 6 March 13 20 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 11 June 18 25
99.10 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 x1 05000 2 July
Interest rates: Liffe Euribor rates

Thr ee Month Euribor LIFFE Continuous 99.3950 High 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.5 99.4 99.3 99.2 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.5 98.4 98.3 98.2 98.1 98.0 97.9 97.8 97.7 97.6 97.5 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.1 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.3 96.2 96.1 96.0 95.9 95.8 95.7 95.6 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.7 94.6 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.2
98.26 HIgh
Liffe Euribor rates Monthly Cont futures chart

Not e the ALL TIME HIGH from 2009.
Summary Currencies
Stocks
Low 94.75
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3 Mont h Euribor LI FFE Jun 13 99.5
99.395 All Time High

Bonds
High 96.5850 High 98.3250 High
99.0
Liffe Euribor rates weekly Jun13 futures chart

The short-term test of the market is the band of support from the Prior Highs at 98.97 and 99.04. But the bulls push through the near High and the All-Time one from 2012 is important....
98.5
98.0
97.5
97.0
Interest rates
96.5
96.0
95.5
Commodities
95.0
15000 10000 5000

x1 00
More
2008
J J A S O N D 2009
A M J J A S O N D 2010
A M
Interest rates: Liffe Euribor rates

3 Mont h Euribor LI FFE Jun 13 99.65 99.60 99.55 99.50 99.45 99.40 99.35 99.30 99.25 99.20 99.15 99.10 99.05 99.00 98.95 98.90 98.85 98.80 98.75 98.70 98.65 98.60 98.55 98.50 98.45 98.40 98.35 98.30 98.25 98.20 98.15 98.10 98.05 50000 40000 30000
All Time High 99.39.50

98.96 High
99.3150 High
Liffe Euribor rates Daily JUn13 futures chart

Watch for a break of the medium and short-term Pivotal Highs.
98.88 High
Summary Currencies
98.3650 High
Stocks
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
20000 10000
x1 0
3 Mont h Euribor LI FFE Jun 13 99.55

99.50 High
99.50
Bonds
99.3150 High
All Time High 99.39.50
99.45
Liffe Euribor rates weekly Jun13 futures chart

The detail of the market edging better with successive highs acting as good support ....
99.40
99.2650 High
99.35
99.30
Interest rates
99.25
99.20
99.15
99.10
99.05
Commodities
9 16 23 30 6 February 13 20 27 5 March 12 19 26 2 10 April 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July 15000 10000
5000
x1 0
Interest rates: Liffe Short Sterling rates

Short Sterling LIFF E Jun 13 100.0
99.5
High 99.10
Liffe Sterling rates weekly Jun13 futures chart

Note the pause at the 99.10 High.
99.0
High 98.14 98.46 Low
98.5
98.0
Summary
97.5
Currencies
High 96.54
97.0
96.5
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000

x1 0
Stocks
D ec 2010 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Short Sterling LIFF E Jun 13 99.55 99.50 99.45
Liffe Sterling rates daily Jun13 futures chart
Bonds
High 99.15 Prior High from August 2011
99.40 99.35 99.30 99.25 99.20 99.15 99.10 99.05 99.00
Interest rates
+ DollarEurodollar CME rates + Euribor rates Liffe Euribor + Liffe Sterling
98.82 Low
That level 99.10 has unambiguously broken. The bulls are in charge.
98.95 98.90 98.85 98.80 98.75 98.70 98.65 98.60
Commodities
98.55 98.50 98.45 98.40
20000 10000
x1 0
More
August
September
October
N ov ember
D ecember
2012
February
March
April
May
June
July
Commodities
COMMODITIES:
Oil remains under great pressure in the long medium and short-term. Watch our short-term levels to time fresh shorts. Gold, like stocks, is struggling to break up through medium-term resistance.
Summary Currencies
Commodities: Nymex WTI Oil

us@cl.1 147.27 H igh 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 2013
Oil monthly cont. chart futures

The long perspective emphasises the bounce off the $40 level.
But the long bull diagonal support looks under threat. Look closer.
114.83 High
Stocks
50.0%
7.15
$41.15
Bonds
$39.99 $33.70 $41.15 Prior High support from the Monthly continuaition chart
161.8%
Interest rates
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Commodities
+ Nymex WTI Oil + Gold Gold Comex
More

us@cl.1 120 114.83 H igh 115
Oil weekly cont chart futures

The bull trend was broken when the horizontal support broke here. Note the failure of the prior High support at 90.52.
103.37-74 High
110
105
100
95
Summary Currencies
50.0% 90.52 High 61.8%
90
85
80
Low 75.71
75
50% Fibonacci retracement support on the bull r un from early 2009 low
Stocks
2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec
70
2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
C rude Oil Light Sweet Sep 12
120
Prior High 112.77 May 2011 110.71 High
115
Bonds
Oil daily chart Sep12 futures

We got a fierce confirmation of the failure of the supports in both the Sep contract and the continuation chart. The rally has been muted much more so than the stocks.
110
105
Neckline
100
96.10-36 Prior Low resistance
Interest rates
89.90 Low
95
om the Monthly continuaition chart

90
85
82.63 Low
Commodities
7 February 14 22 28 6 March 13 20 26 2 9 April 16 23 30 7 May
81.87 Low
80 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
More
Prior High 112.77 May 2011

110.71 High
C rude Oil Light Sweet Sep 12
102.66 Low
106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90
Oil daily Sep 12 chart futures

The markets pause at 81.87 may be the beginning of a continuation Triangle.
96.10 Low
Support 90.52
Summary
90.52 Prior High support from the weekly continuation chart
89 88
Currencies
87 86 85 84 83
81.87 Low
82 81 80 50000
Stocks
13 20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
Bonds
Interest rates
Commodities
Commodities: Comex Gold

Gold 100 Troy Oz. COMEX C ontinuous
1923.70 High
High 1577.40 High
1432.50 High
2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100
Comex Gold futures weekly cont. chart

But the first important support from Prior High support at 1577 is being tested for the 3rd time....
Summary
High 1009
Currencies
1050 1000 950 900
Prior High $873 from 1980
850 800 750
Stocks
J J A S O N D 2010 M A M J J A S O N D 2011 M A M J J A S O N D 2012 M A M J J A S
700
Comex Gold WEEKLY AUG 12 chart

1820 1810 1800 1790 1780 1770 1760 1750 1740 1730 1720 1710 1700 1690 1680 1670 1660 1650 1640 1630 1620 1610 1600 1590 1580 1570 1560 1550 1540 1530 1520 1510 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000
x1 0
Gold 100 Troy Oz. COMEX Aug 12
Bonds
61.8%
The bounce from the prior High support is clear.
50.0%
38.2%
Interest rates
1616.30 Low 1601.40 High
Low 1529.30 Low
Commodities
31 7 February 14 22 28 6 March 13 20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 7 May 14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
More
Commodities: Comex Gold

Gold 100 Troy Oz. COMEX Aug 12 1760 1750 1740 1730 1720 1710 1700 1690 1680 1670 1660 1650 1640 1630 1620 1610 1600 1590 1580 1570 1560 1550
Low 1529.30 Low
Comex Gold futures Daily Aug12 chart

Note the attempt to break the confining resistance and supports both horizontal and diagonal.. The market needs to get back above 1601 (and the close Fibonacci resistance at 1633)
61.8%
50.0%
38.2%
Summary Currencies
1616.30 Low
1601.40 High
1540 1530 1520 1510 30000 25000 20000 15000
Stocks
20 26 2 April 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 29 4 June 11 18 25 2 July
10000 5000
x1 0
Bonds
Interest rates
Commodities
Summary Currencies
The material and information set out in this research is not intended to be a quote of an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Any expression of opinion is based on sources believed to be reasonably reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The material and information herein is general and for informational purposes only. Although Seven Days Ahead endeavours to provide useful information they make no guarantee as to the accuracy or reliability of the research. The derivative market comprises volatility and considerable risks. To the maximum extent permitted by law no responsibility or liability can be accepted by Seven Days Ahead, any company or employee within its group for any action taken as a result of the information contained in this presentation. You are requested not to rely on any representation in this research and to seek specific advice from your accountant, legal adviser or financial services adviser when dealing with specific circumstances.
Stocks
Bonds
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Interest rates
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the technical traders guide to major markets

Currencies: Currencies Dollar Euro

Dollar Euro quarterly spot cash chart

1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30

1.15 1.10 1.05

1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80

Currencies: Dollar Euro

Dollar Euro weekly spot cash chart

1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.20

1.19 1.18 1.17

N ov D ec 2011 Feb Mar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep

Euro - US Dollar 1.355 1.350

Dollar Euro daily spot chart

1.335 1.330 1.325 1.320 1.315 1.310 1.305 1.300

1.295 1.290 1.285

1.280 1.275 1.270

1.2628 Low 38.2%

Currencies: Dollar Sterling

Dollar Sterling Quarterly spot cash chart

1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35

1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10

1.05 1.00 0.95 81 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15

UK Pound Sterling - US Dollar

Dollar Sterling monthly spot cash chart

1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60

1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35

1.30 1.25 1.20

Currencies: Dollar Sterling

Dollar Sterling weekly spot cash chart

1.7050 Low f rom 2005

U K Pound Sterling - U S D ollar 1.635

1.630 1.625 1.620 1.615

Dollar Sterling daily spot cash chart

1.610 1.605 1.600 1.595

1.580 1.575 1.570

1.565 1.560 1.555 1.550

1.5349 Low from Dec 2010

1.5349 prior low

1.530 1.525 1.520 1.515 2 July

Currencies: Dollar Yen

Dollar Yen monthly spot cash chart

120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80

U S D ollar - Japanese Yen

Dollar Yen weekly spot cash chart

1.1927 Prior H igh

79.78 Low from cont. chart 1995

The pull-back should find support at 79.41and beneath.

Currencies: Dollar Yen

Major Prior Low resist ance 84.92 Nov 2009

85.5 85.0 84.5

Dollar Yen daily spot cash chart

84.0 83.5 83.0

80.5 80.0 79.5

79.0 78.5 78.0 77.5 77.0 76.5 76.0 75.5 75.0

Currencies: Sterling Euro

Sterling Euro monthly spot cash chart

The market is testing 0.8071.