Reasoning Critically

adapted from Thinking Critically by John Chaffee

The Critical Thinkers Guide to Reasoning

Inductive Reasoning
Reasoning from premises assumed to be true to a conclusion supported (but not logically) by the premises

Causal Reasoning
Concluding that an event is the result of another event.

Empirical Generalization

Drawing conclusions about a target population based on observing a sample population

Is the sample known? Is the sample sufficient? Is the sample representative?

Scientific Method
1. Identify an event for investigation

Fallacies
Unsound arguments that can appear logical

2. Gather information 3Develop a theroy/hypothesis

4. Test/experiment
Fallacies of False Generalization Hasty generalization Sweeping generalization False Dilemma Causal fallacies Fallacies of Relevance Appeal to authority Appeal to tradition Bandwagon Appeal to pity Appeal to fear Appeal to flattery Special pleading Begging the question Straw man Red herring Appeal to personal attack Two wrongs make a right Appeal to ignorance 5. Evaluate results

Questionable cause
Misidentification of the cause Post hoc ergo propter hoc Slippery slope

Examples of inductive reasoning: empirical generalization and causal reasoning

On the average, a person with a college degree will earn over $1,140,000 more in his or her lifetime than a person with just a high school diploma. The devastating disease AIDS is caused by a particularly complex virus that may not be curable. A recent Gallup poll reported that 74 percent of the American public believes that abortion should remain legalized. The outbreak of food poisoning at the end-of-year party was probably caused by the squid salad.

Empirical generalization
Is

the sample known? Is the sample sufficient?

Error factor

Is

the sample representative?

Relevant factors of target population Random selection

Example

To Sleep, perchance to die? A survey by the Sleep Disorder Clinic of the VA hospital in La Jolla, California (involving more than one million people) revealed that people who sleep more than ten hours a night hace a death rate 80 percent higher than those who sleep only seven or eight hours. Men who sleep less than four hours a night have a death rate 180 percent higher, and women with less than four hours sleep have a rate 40 percent higher. This might be taken as indicating that too much or too little sleep causes death.

Example 2

U.S. Wastes Food Worth Millions Americans in the economic middle waste more food than their rich and poor counterparts, according to a study published Saturday. Carried out in Tucson, Arizona, by University of Arizona students under the direction of Dr. William Rathje, the study analyzed 600 bags of garbage each week for three years from lower- middle- and upperincome neighbourhoods. They found that city residents throw out around 10 percent of the food they took home about 9,500 tons of food each year. The figure amounts to $9 to $11 million worth of food. Most of the waste occurred in middle-class neighbourhoods. Both the poor and the wealthy were significantly more frugal.

Designing a poll

Fallacies of false generalization

Hasty

generaliztions Sweeping generalization False dilemma

Hasty generalizations
My

boyfriends have never shown any real concern for my feelings. My conclusion is that men are insensitive, selfish and emotionally superficial. My mother always gets upset over insignificant things. This leads me to believe that women are very emotional.

Sweeping generalizations

Vigorous exercise contributes to overall good health. Therefore, vigorous exercise should be practiced by recent heart attack vistims, people who are out of shape and women who are about to give birth. People should be allowed to make their own decisions, providing that their actions do not harm other people. Therefore, people who are trying to commit suicide should be left alone to do what they want.

False dilemma
Everyone

in Germany is a National Socialist the few outside the party are either lunatics or idiots (Adolf Hitler, 1939) America love it or leave it! If you know about BMW, you either own one or you want one. She loves me; she loves me not.

Causal reasoning
The

Scientific Method

Identify an event or a relationship between events to be investigated. Gather information about the event Develop a theory of hypothesis to explain what is happening Test the theory or hypothesis through experimentation Evaluate the theory or hypothesis (accept, reject or revise)

Example

A Shorter Life for Lefties A survey of 5,000 people by Stanley Coren found that while 15 percent of the population at age 10 was lefthanded, there was a pronounced drop-off as people grew older, leaving 5 percent among 50year-olds and less than 1 percent for those aged 80 and above. Where have all the lefties gone? They seem to have died. Lefties have a shorter life expectancy than righties, by an average of 9 years in the general population, apparently due to the ills and accidentss they are more likely to suffer by having to live in a right-handed world.

Example 2

Nuns offer Clues to Alzheimers and Aging: The famous Nun Study is considered by experts on aging to be one of the most innovative efforts to answer questions about who gets Alzheimers disease and why. Studying 678 nuns at seven convents has shown that folic acid may help stave off Alzheimers disease, and that early language ability may be linked to lower risk of Alzheimers because nuns who packed more ideas into the sentences of their early autobiographies were less likely to get Alzheimers six decades later. Also, nuns who expressed more positive emotions in their autobiographies lived significantly longer in some cases 10 years longer than those expressing fewer positive emotions.

Causal fallacies

Questionable cause

No evidence (superstitions, astrology)

Cause or effect (poverty and alcoholism) After it, therefore because of it (shirt and winning)

Misidentification of the cause

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Slippery slope

One undesirable action will inevitably lead to others (fail one exam; eat one chocolate)

Fallacies of relevance
Appeal

to authority Appeal to tradition Bandwagon

Appeal

to pity Appeal to fear Appeal to flattery Special pleading

Fallacies of relevance - cont

Appeal

to ignorance Begging the question Straw man Red herring Appeal to personal attack Two wrongs make a right

Appeal to authority
What

are the professional credentials on which the authorities expertise is based? Is their expertise in the area they are commenting on? Examples Athletes or stars selling beer
Snob appeal

Appeal to Tradition
It

has always been done that way so that is the way to do it: in some cases, perhaps true; in others, not so (footbinding, bleeding,etc.) Evaluate these traditional beliefs:

Spare the rod and spoil the child Children should be seen and not heard Real men dont cry A womans place is in the home

Bandwagon
Uncritical acceptance of others opinions as everyone believes it. Fear of being left alone. Examples:

Peer pressure My friends convinced me that only losers like classical music. In the latest Gallup poll 86 percent of those polled believe that economic recovery will happen in the next three months, so I must be wrong. Hollywood celebrities and supermodels agree that tatoos in unusual places are cool!

Appeal to pity

Are the reasons offered relevant to the conclusion? Is it really a case for pity? Discuss:

I know that I havent completed my term paper, but I really think that I should be excused. I caught every kind of flu going around and my brother has a drinking problem and this has been upsetting me. And my dog died. I admit that my client embezzled money from the company, your honor. However he is a family man with a wonderful wife and two terrific children and is an important member of the community. He is active in church and coaches little league. I think you should take these things into consideration in handing down your sentence.

Appeal to Fear

Threats Discuss:

Im afraid I dont think you deserve a raise. After all, there are many people who would be happy to have your job at the salary you are currently earning. I would be happy to interview some of these people if you really think you are underpaid. If you continue to dissagree with my interpretation of this book Im afraid you wont get a very good grade on your term paper.

Appeal to flattery
Flatter

the main or sole support of your

claim. Examples:

You are so smart. I wish I had a brain like yours. Can you give me any hints about the history test you took today? Im taking it tomorrow. Yours a beautiful human being inside and out, Why dont you stay the night?

Special pleading
Your

circumstances are unique and deserving of special consideration. Examples:

I know the deadline of the paper was announced several weeks ago and that you made clear that there would be no exceptions, but I really am an exception. I probably shouldnt have used funds from the treasury for my own personal use, but after all I am the president of the organization.

Appeal to ignorance
Instead

of supporting your reasons, you insist that others prove them wrong. Examples:

Greco Tires are the best. No others have been proved better. Can you prove that leprechauns dont exist?

Begging the question

Circular

reasoning Examples:

My religion worships the one true God How can your be sure? Because our Holy Book says so. Why should I believe this Holy Book? Because it was written by the one true God.

Straw Man
You

attack someones point of view by creating an exaggerated version of the position and then knock it down. Examples:

Im opposed to the missile defense shield because I think its a waste of money. So you want to undermine the security of the nation and leave the country defenseless. Are you serious?

think we should work at keeping the apartment clean; its a mess. So youre suggesting that we discontinue our lives and become full-time maids so that we can live in a pristine, spotless, antiseptic aparmnet. Thats no way to live!

Red Herring
smoke screen or wild goose chase. Introduces an irrelevant topic to divert attention from the original issue. Examples:

Im really in favor of the death penalty. After all, overpopulation is a big problem in our world today. I really dont believe that grade inflation is a significant problem in higher education. Everybody wants to be liked, and teachers are just trying to get students to like them.

Appeal to Personal Attack

Ignoring the issues of the argument and focusing instead on the personal qualities of the person making the argument. Also called ad hominem or poisoning the well Example:

His opinion on this issue is false. Its impossible to believe anything he says As a man, he cant know anything about how a woman feels!

Two Wrongs Make a Right

Attempts to justify a morally questionable act by arguing that it is a response to another worng action. Examples:

Terrorists are justified in killing innocent people because they and their people have been the victims of political repression and discriminatory policies. Capital punishment is a good idea because killing murderers is what they deserve for the killings they committed I can take this from the shop because they overcharge me on other things.