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The ability to accurately estimate the time and/or cost taken for a project to come in to its successful conclusion It includes size estimation, effort estimation, duration estimation ,cost estimation etc
Size estimation
The project size is a measure of the problem complexity in terms of the effort and the time required to develop the project Two techniques for estimation LOC(lines of codes) FPA(function point analysis)
LOC
This metric measures the size of the project by counting the number of source instructions in the program. Comments and header lines are ignored. Accurate LOC count in the beginning of the project is difficult, one would have to make systemetic guess. Project managers divide the problem into modules and each modules into submodules until the sizes of the different leaf level modules can be approximately predicted. Past experience is imp here.
Disadvantage of LOC
It gives a numerical value of problem size that can vary widely with individual coding style. Loc is a measure of the coding activity alone.it ignores design,test etc It is difficult to estimate LOC from the problem specification.
These function-point counts are then weighed (multiplied) by their degree of complexity: Simple Average Complex Inputs 2 4 6 Outputs 3 5 7 Files 5 10 15 Inquires 2 4 6 Interfaces 4 7 10
A simple example:
3 simple X 2 = 6 4 average X 4 = 16 1 complex X 6 = 6 outputs 6 average X 5 = 30 2 complex X 7 = 14 files 5 complex X 15 = 75 inquiries 8 average X 4 = 32 interfaces 3 average X 7 = 21 4 complex X 10 = 40 Unadjusted function points 240
inputs
Value Adjustment Factor - The Unadjusted Function Point count is multiplied by the second adjustment factor called the Value Adjustment Factor. This factor considers the system's technical and operational characteristics and is calculated by answering 14 questions. The factors are:
1. Data Communications The data and control information used in the application are sent or received over communication facilities.
2. Distributed Data Processing Distributed data or processing functions are a characteristic of the application within the application boundary.
3. Performance Application performance objectives, stated or approved by the user, in either response or throughput, influence (or will influence) the design, development, installation and support of the application. 4. Heavily Used Configuration A heavily used operational configuration, requiring special design considerations, is a characteristic of the application. 5. Transaction Rate The transaction rate is high and influences the design, development, installation and support.
6. On-line Data Entry On-line data entry and control information functions are provided in the application.
7. End -User Efficiency The on-line functions provided emphasize a design for end-user efficiency.
8. On-line Update The application provides on-line update for the internal logical files. 9. Complex Processing Complex processing is a characteristic of the application. 10. Reusability The application and the code in the application have been specifically designed, developed and supported to be usable in other applications. 11. Installation Ease Conversion and installation ease are characteristics of the application. A conversion and installation plan and/or conversion tools were provided and tested during the system test phase. 12. Operational Ease Operational ease is a characteristic of the application. Effective start-up, backup and recovery procedures were provided and tested during the system test phase. 13. Multiple Sites The application has been specifically designed, developed and supported to be installed at multiple sites for multiple organizations. 14. Facilitate Change The application has been specifically designed, developed and supported to facilitate change.
Continuing our example . . . Complex internal processing Code to be reusable High performance Multiple sites Distributed processing Project adjustment factor
= = = = =
3 2 4 3 5
= 17
Adjustment calculation: Adjusted FP = Unadjusted FP X [0.65 + (adjustment factor X 0.01)] = 240 X [0.65 + ( 17 X 0.01)] = 240 X [0.82] = 197 Adjusted function points
But how long will the project take and how much will it cost? As previously measured, programmers in our organization average 18 function points per month. Thus . . . 197 FP divided by 18 = 11 man-months If the average programmer is paid $5,200 per month (including benefits), then the [labor] cost of the project will be . . . 11 man-months X $5,200 = $57,200
COCOMO
It is known as constructive cost model and was proposed by Boehm in 1981. According to Boehm,any software development project can be classified into three categories based on the development complexity:organic, semidetached, and embedded
Organic: A development project can be considered of organic type, if the project deals with developing a well understood application program, the size of the development team is reasonably small, and the team members are experienced in developing similar types of projects. Semidetached: A development project can be considered of semidetached type, if the development consists of a mixture of experienced and inexperienced staff. Team members may have limited experience on related systems but may be unfamiliar with some aspects of the system being developed. Embedded: A development project is considered to be of embedded type, if the software being developed is strongly coupled to complex hardware, or if the stringent regulations on the operational procedures exist.
According to Boehm, software cost estimation should be done through three stages: Basic COCOMO, Intermediate COCOMO, and Complete COCOMO.
For the three classes of software products, the formulas for estimating the effort based on the code size are shown below: 1) For organic: effort=2.4(KLOC)1.05 PM 2) For semidetached: effort=3.0(KLOC)1.12 PM 3) For embedded: Effort=3.6(KLOC)1.20 PM Estimation of development time 1)For organic: Tdev= 2.5(effort)0.38 months 2)For semidetached: Tdev= 2.5(effort)0.35 months 3)For embedded: Tdev= 2.5(effort)0.32 months
Example: Assume that the size of an organic type software product has been estimated to be 32,000 lines of source code. Assume that the average salary of software engineers be Rs. 15,000/- per month. Determine the effort required to develop the software product and the nominal development time
The intermediate COCOMO model recognizes this fact and refines the initial estimate obtained using the basic COCOMO expressions by using a set of cost drivers (multipliers) based on various attributes of software development. Product related cost drivers:inherent complexity of the product, reliability requirements of the product, etc. Computer related cost drivers:execution speed required, storage space required etc. Personnel related cost drivers:the experience level of personnel, programming capability, analysis capability,etc. Development Environment related cost drivers:development facilities available to the developers
The cost of each subsystem is estimated separately. This approach reduces the margin of error in the final estimate.
example
The following development project can be considered as an exampleapplication of the complete COCOMO model. A distributed Management Information System (MIS) product for an organization having offices at several places across the country can have the following sub-components: Database part Graphical User Interface (GUI) part Communication part Of these, the communication part can be considered as embedded software. The database part could be semi-detached software, and the GUI part organic software. The costs for these three components can be estimated separately, and summed up to give the overall cost of the system.