Is Global Warming for Real?

J. C. Sprott
Department of Physics University of Wisconsin Madison Presented at the Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar In Madison, Wisconsin On January 17, 2006

Some Evidence

From Recent Seminars

Greenland Ice-core Data (C. S. Clay)

782,000 years Lake Mendota Ice Cover (John Magnuson)

150 years

Prediction Methods

Extrapolation methods
Simple extrapolation Moving average Trends

Linear methods
Simple regression Autoregression All poles method

Nonlinear methods
Method of analogs Artificial neural network

Simple Extrapolation
3

2
1 Order = 0

Fit the last few points to a polynomial

Moving Average

1 2 3

Lags = 0

Average some number of previous points

Trends
2

1
Lags = 0

Follow the trend of some number of previous points

Linear Regression
2
3 Order = 0 1

Fit a polynomial to the entire data set

Autoregression

Order = 0

xt = a0 + a1xt-1 + a2xt-2 +

All Poles Method

Poles = 0 2 4 1

Assume a sum of poles in the complex plane

Method of Analogs

Lags = 0 2

Find the closest similar previous sequence

Artificial Neural Network

D aij N bi 6 neurons Lags = 3

tanh x

xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3]

Artificial Neural Network

6 neurons Lags = 3

xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3]

Artificial Neural Network

6 neurons Lags = 4

xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + + ai4xt-4]

Artificial Neural Network

6 neurons Lags = 9

This year: 26 days

xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + + ai9xt-9]

Artificial Neural Network

6 neurons Lags = 9 Chaotic?

450-year prediction ~30-70 days frozen xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + + ai9xt-9]

Conclusion

Eight predictors with ten or more values for the parameter give 80 very different predictions

We could take an average of all the predictions Better yet, take the median of the predictions (half higher, half lower)

Median of 80 Predictions

Prediction for this season: 91 days (March 19th thaw)

Ice Core Data Neural Network Predictor

6 neurons Lags = 9

782,000 years

xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + + ai9xt-9]

Ice Core Data Average of 80 Predictions

782,000 years

Closing Thoughts

The Earth is getting warmer

Human activity may not be the main cause Global warming may not be a bad thing
Technological solutions may be available and relatively simple

References

http://sprott.physics.wisc.edu/
lectures/warming.ppt (this talk)

sprott@physics.wisc.edu
(contact me)