Expert System

11.1

2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

Expert System
ES is a knowledge based IS that uses its knowledge about a specific complex application area to act as an expert consultant to end users. ES capture the knowledge of skilled employees in the form of set of rules Set of rules in ES adds to the memory or stored learning of the firms ES can assist DM by asking relevant questions and explaining the reasons for adopting certain actions.
11.2

2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

Rule Based Expert system

Explanation system allows the program to explain its reasoning to the user. Knowledge base editor help the expert / knowledge engineer to easily update and check the KB. Inference engine Strategy used to search through the rule base Case specific data Includes both data provided by the user and partial conclusions (along with certainity measures) based on this data

11.3

2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

- Knowledge base Human knowledge must be modeled or represented in a way that a computer can process. The model of human knowledge used by ES is KB contains specific facts about the expert area and rules that the ES will use to make decisions based on those facts. Rules in the KB are coded in the form If X then Y IF INCOME > Rs.45,000 (condition) THEN print NAME & ADDRESS (action))

11.4

2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

Eg: If company policy states that credit is to be automatically authorized only if a customer total outstanding balance does not exceed Rs.1000 and the customer has made no more than two credit purchases today Then, the rules can be coded as Rule 1: Authorize credit if total customer balance after transaction will be less than / equal to Rs.1000. Rule 2: Authorize credit if customer has made not more than two credit purchases already today
Facts in the KB applied to these rules are names, account numbers, current outstanding balances and credit limits of each of these customers and proposed purchase amounts.
11.5
2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

Knowledge base

Rules If X THEN A If Y THEN B ELSE C

Facts Constrains, definitions, hypothesis, observations, relationships

Inference Engine Forward and Backward Chaining

11.6

2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

Inference Engine

It is the system of programs that drives the expert systems It applies the facts and rules in the KB to the data about the problem supplied by users. It operate with either.
Forward Chaining Backward Chaining

11.7

2006 by Prentice Hall

Inference Engine
Inference Engine

Forward chaining This mechanism examines the KB and the problem at hand, then it attempts to discover a solution. Eg: A medical ES may be used to examine patients symptoms and provide diagnosis. Based on the symptomology ES locate several diseases that the patient may have. Backward chaining Inference engine starts with a hypothesis /goal, which it then checks against the facts and rules in the KB for consistency. Eg: ES given the goal to find this patient disease(s) and would work back from there asking questions to confirm or refuse candidate diagnosis.
11.8

2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

Example
IF engine_getting_petrol AND engine_turns_over THEN problem_with_spark_plugs IF NOT engine_turns_over AND NOT lights_come_on THEN problem_with_battery IF NOT engine_turns_over AND lights_come_on THEN problem_with_starter IF petrol_in_fuel_tank THEN engine_getting_petrol
11.9
2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

System User Interaction

System: Is it true that there's petrol in the fuel tank? User: Yes. System: Is it true that the engine turns over? User: No. System Is it true that the lights come on? User: No. System: I conclude that there is a problem with battery.

11.10

2006 by Prentice Hall

Explanation Facilities
System: Is there petrol in the fuel tank? User: Yes. System: Is it true that the engine turns over? User: No. System Is it true that the lights come on? User: Why? System: I am trying to prove: problem with battery. It has been established that it is not the case that the engine turns over. Therefore if it is not the case that the lights come on then there is a problem with battery. Is it true that the lights come on? User: No. System: I conclude that there is a problem with the battery. User: How? System: This follows from Rule 2: IF NOT engine_turns_overAND ... NOT engine_turns_overwas given by the user. NOT lights_come_onwas given by the user.
2006 by Prentice Hall

11.11

Management Information Systems

ES APPLICATIONS

11.12

CLUES Country Wide Loan Underwriting ES ES at detecting consumer credit card fraud ES for advertising strategy ADCAD - Advertising Communication Approach Designer ES that assists advertising agencies in setting marketing and communication objectives, selecting creative strategies and identifying effective communication approaches. ADCAD DB Rule derived from various sources including consultations. ADCAD uses Q & A format asking series of questions about advertisement problem. It then searches its KB, matching users answers against its rules ADCAD presents its recommendations along with explanation if asked. Than providing inferences for current advertising, also gives ideas for new communication approaches Support what if analysis of advertising option
2006 by Prentice Hall

Management Information Systems

BENEFITS OF ES Outperform a single human expert in many problem situations. ES is faster and more consistent, have the knowledge of several experts, and does not get tired or distracted by over work or stress Preserve and reproduce the knowledge of several experts Improve efficiency of business process and produce new knowledge based products and services LIMITATION Limited focus, inability to learn, maintenance problems and development cost. Difficult and costly to develop and maintain properly Cant learn from experience but must be taught new knowledge and modified as new expertise Can overcome by the use of ES development tools.
11.13
2006 by Prentice Hall