Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
1/27/2013
Learning Objectives
At the end of this session students should be able describe to; 1. Definition & concept of epidemiology, 2. O3 basic concepts/Components of epidemiology 3. Measurements in epidemiology 4. Measurement of Mortality 5. Understand, Types and Standardization of Mortality rates 6. Incidence and Prevalence Rates.
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 2
Epidemiology
The study of the distribution and determinants of a disease, health related states or events in specified populations and the application of this study to the control of health problems. (John M.Last 1988) Study of a disease a disease as a mass phenomenon. (Green wood 1934) Medical Science which treats Epidemics
(Perkins 1873)
1/27/2013
Epidemiology ?
A scientific process that detects, investigates causes of health problems, designs & evaluates the interventions to control these problems. Is a both, a field of research to advance scientific understanding of health & disease and application of knowledge to control disease and advance public health. It is primarily an observational science
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 4
Epidemiology is characterization of health problem by time place and person, in order to explain the causes of the problems in terms of Agent-Host & Environmental factors.
Host (Person)
Agent
Environment (Place)
Hypertension
03 Basic Concepts
1. Study of Disease Frequency
(Quantitative science).
what to measure? (Mortality & Morbidity) Disease & its consequences Health related states & Events
(Health demands/Needs, Health Services & Facilities,
How to measure ? By using statistical tools of measurement. { RATES, RATIO, and PROPORTION} WHY ? For Public health purposes, Comparison/
Analysis etc etc (Clues to diseases etiology)
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 7
03 Basic Concepts..
2. Study of disease distribution:
Fact: Health/Disease is not uniformly distributed in human population, But in Patterns and epidemiology is the study these distribution patterns. In terms of ! TIME, PLACE & PERSON. TIME: whether there has been an increase or decrease of disease over time. PLACE: whether there is higher concentration of disease in one geographic area than in other places. PERSON: whether disease occurs more often in people of a certain age group (sex, profession, race, social etc) than in other age groups. Like infants vs. adults. (Analytical thinking, Comparison, Generation of Etiological Hypothesis )
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 8
03 basic concepts..
Help to identify;
Risk factors/ causes of the disease (Determinants) Best preventive, therapeutic & diagnostic modalities Best public health approaches.
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 9
ANALYSIS (comparison)
Important differences and similarities in host and environmental conditions between of those who are affected and, not affected are identified and compared. (under Statistical methods ) Important associations are identified & quantified and tested for significance It provides scientific explanation of the causes of disease occurrence over the individuals and the populations.
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 10
RATE
Is measure of occurrence of a particular condition in a certain population in a given period of time. It is a statement of risk of developing a particular condition. Elements of Rate
I. II. III. IV.
1/27/2013
Denominator.
It is the total No. people or total No. of events in which the numerator (Event/Entity) is being measured.
Types of denominator
a. Related to population. b. related to events
1/27/2013
14
a. Related to population.
1. Mid year population (1st July) 2. Population at risk (Exposed) 3. Person time denominator (Pearl index) b. Related total No. of events. Examples; IMR, MMR, Case fatality rates.
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 15
Ratio
A ratio expresses relationship in size between two random quantities. It is obtained by dividing one quantity with other quantity. Numerator is not part of denominator but both have some logical association. Examples. Male to Female ratio, Population per Healthcare facility ratio. Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR)
Dr. Arshad Sabir 2011 16
Proportion
A ratio which indicates relation in magnitude of a part to the whole.
- Numerator is always included in denominator - Expressed in percentage. Examples: Proportion of males in Rawalpindi city .
= Total No. of males in the City -------------------------------------- X 100 Total No. of male & female population in the city
1/27/2013
17
Measurement of Mortality
DEATH RATES: (deaths certification 1. Crude Death Rate
and recording issues)
Actual observed rates without any specification. It is single figure. (CDR Pakistan 10/1000) Benefit &Limitations
Adjustment can be made for age, sex, race etc . Crude Rate is single figure.
Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 20
London
15.2 13.5
0.6
0.4
1.5
10.7
59.7
Lahore
9.9
22.6
1.0
0.5
3.6
18.8
61.1
1/27/2013
21
5000
90
90/5000 x 1000
18
280/33000 X 1000
0-5y 6-15y
2000 8000
= 53.2 = 56.8
16-19y
20-60y 60y and above
10,000
12,000 5000 Total Pop. = 38000
2.5
4 18
2.5/1000 X 10000
4/1000 X 12000 18/1000 X 5000 Total deaths
=25
= 48 = 108 = 291
1/27/2013
24
B. Indirect standardization
Standardized Mortality Ratio n (SMR)
Mortality rates adjustment for their purposeful use. Basically a Ratio of total No. of deaths in a certain group to that in standard pop: expressed in percentage. Compares mortality in a certain occupation with Mortality in general population. Measure of likely excess risk of dying in the study pop: Observed deaths SMR = -------------------------X 100 Expected deaths SMR above 100 means this much % mortality is in excess Little details are required. Basis of fund allocation.
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 25
Measuring Morbidity
Incidence:
Occurrence of new cases of a disease in a given population.
INCIDENCE RATE:
Defined as; Number of new cases of a disease occurring in a defined population during a specified period of time .e.g. Incidence of malaria in Pakistan? Incidence of Tuberculosis in Pakistan? 10 cases of malaria in a year in a town with population of 100,000.
26
Incidence Rates
Incidence rate;
tells the rate at which new cases are occurring is not influenced by duration of disease Usually used for acute conditions
27
Incidence Rate
No. of new cases of specific disease during a given time period Incidence Rate = _____________ X 1000
Pop. at risk of having the disease during that period of time
28
Incidence Rates
Prevalence
Total No. of individuals who have the disease or attribute of the disease (New & old cases) at a particular time/period in a population at risk of having the disease or attribute at this point or during this period of time. 02 types : 1. Point prevalence 2. Period prevalence
30
No. of all current cases (New &Old ) of a disease existing at / during a given time PR = __________________ Estimated population at risk of disease during the same time
X 100
31
32
OSPE-1
A total number of 3000 people died due to cardiac diseases in year 2008
1. Is this statement cab taken as epidemiological Rate ?
If No; 2. What elements should be added to convert this into a rate? 3. Calculate the RATE.
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 33
OSPE-2
Crude death rate of a town-x was 10 per thousand population in a given year but in the same year 5000 deaths occurred in Kachiabadi having population of 100,000 of the same town-x. Q. 1. Standardize the Mortality experience of the Kachi-abadi. Q. 2. what public health decision can be taken the obtained SMR?
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 34
Key: OSPE-1
1. No ( it gives no useable meanings) 2. i. Place specification ( Say Rawalpindi) ii. A constant /Multiplier ( Say 100, 1000 etc.) iii. Denominator ( Midyear population in year 2008) 3. 3000/1500000 X 1000 = 2 per 1000 pop.
1/27/2013 Dr. Arshad Sabir A.P 35
Key: OSPE-2
Ans:1.
Mortality in town-x = 10 / 1000 pop. (CDR) Mortality in Kachi-abadi = 1500 per 100,000 pop. Crude Death rate in Kachi-abadi = 1500 / 100000 x 1000 Crude Death rate in Kachi-abadi = 15 / 1000 pop. SMR = 15/10 x 100 = 200 SMR = 150 50
Ans: 2
Mortality in Kachi-abadi is 50% high as compare to whole town. Situation demands allocation of more funds for health development of people of Kachi-abadi.
1/27/2013
36