Introduction to Climate Change and Integration with Air Quality Management

Muhammad Aqib Uddin Clean Air for Pakistan Training Course Addressing Climate Change through Better Air Quality Management October 26-28, Quetta

INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

What is Climate Change?

Climate change is attributed mostly to the rapidly increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2 from human activities in the agriculture, forestry, energy, waste and industry sectors Energy (power and transport), Waste and Industry, sectors which contribute greatly to GHG emissions, are urban-related activities

Source: University of Colorado

Source: Government of Canada website

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Asian Trends - Energy

Energy consumption 1980 2030
Asia: 70% of global growth in energy demand Non-OECD Asia: energy use triples between 2004 - 2030 Coal use growing in Asia, declining in the West

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/images/06-03-1.gif
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Trends Climate change

Energy-related carbon emissions 2003 - 2030
Carbon emissions to grow worldwide but faster in Asia Main contributors are power generation and transport

http://www.accf.org/images/Test399Fig8.gif

Trends Climate change (2)

Carbon emissions per capita (2002)
All SE Asian countries below high income average Most SE Asian countries above world average Southeast Asia
Tons per capita 2004 2030 3.6 7.8 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.4 8.2 20.1 8.3 21.8

China India Other nonOECD OECDEurope US

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html

5 http://maps.grida.no/library/files/web_national_carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_per_capita.jpg

Asian Trends Air Pollution

Air quality in Asia is improving but still far above WHO limits PM is main pollutant of concern
300 250 200 150
WHO (1979) TSP guideline, 60-90mg/m3 WHO (2005) SO2 24-hour guideline, 20mg/m3 WHO NO2 guideline, 40mg/m3 WHO (2005) PM10 guideline, 20mg/m3

Aggregated Annual Ambient AQ Trends, mg/m3 (1993 to 2005)

TSP PM10 SO2 NO2 Linear (TSP) Linear (PM10) Linear (NO2) Linear (SO2)

100 50 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Pakistan Trend Coarse Suspended Particulate Matters in Air PM10

1200 1000
800 600 400

1030 895 834 910 870 709

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200 Safe Limit 0

Multan Lahore Karachi Peshawer Quetta Faisalabad Rawalpindi

Safe Limits: WHO Guidelines: 120 mg/m3 Japanese Standards: 200 mg/m3
Source: EPAs Punjab , Sindh, NWFP 2006
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Causes and impact: air pollution influences climate change (long-term)

Climate change impact depends on type of pollutant Ozone (tropospheric ) contributes to warming (positive radiative forcing) Aerosols offset radiative forcing (producing a cooling effect)
Image Source: IPCC, 2001. Third Assessment Report The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policy Makers

Impacts: Climate change ALSO influences air pollution (short term)

Probability of exceeding O3 limit in Ispra, Italy (Van Dingenen et al., in preparation)

Increased temperatures (warming) increase probability of exceeding air quality guidelines for ozone Direct impact of climate change on particulate matter has not been established
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Causes and impacts: aerosols influence climate (regional)

Accelerated glacier melting: floods Rainfall: changing patterns, droughts and floods Blocking of sunlight (global dimming): Reduced agricultural yields

Changes in solar energy reaching the ground

Soot intensifies floods and droughts in Asia (in inches rainfall)

Source: NASA, 2002 - http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020822blackcarbon.html

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Policy integration: IPCC supports co-benefits approach

Integrating air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation policies offers potentially large cost reductions compared to treating those policies in isolation

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

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Objectives of the co-benefits approach

Overlap climate change and air pollution
Similar causes (e.g. energy use) Climate change affects air pollution and vice versa Air pollution affects short-term climate

Mitigation measures therefore bring multiple benefits (cobenefits)

Reduced GHG emissions and air pollution Reduced energy use (= increased energy security) Improved public health Reduced traffic congestion and road safety Reduce mitigation costs

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Co-benefits: a simple definition

Killing (at least) two birds with one stone
Climate change Air pollution Energy security

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Co-benefits: a more complex definition

Co-benefits from the global climate change perspective: additional benefits beyond GHG reductions resulting from climate change mitigation measures
Reduced air pollution Associated health benefits Improved energy security through reduced energy costs and dependency on oil imports Increased access to energy

Co-benefits from the Asian regional/local perspective: additional GHG reductions resulting from measures aimed to address
Development issues, such as air pollution and associated health

Problems, lack of energy access and security, and other socio-economic problems

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Integrating AQM and Climate Change

AQM Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation

Action

Integrated Inventories based on common methodologies

Analysis

GHG Emission inventories

Common weaknesses: Reliable Activity data Emission factors

Air pollutant Emission Inventories

Energy use
Domestic Industrial Power generation

Transport
Road transport Shipping Aviation Rail

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Mitigation measures: reduced GHG and improved local air quality

Integrated
Low-sulfur coal
Smokestack controls Catalytic converters Diesel particle traps Evaporative controls Clean fuels/renewable Energy efficiency programs Methane gas recovery Fuel switching

Global
Geological and
terrestrial sequestration Land use and land use change Control of other GHGs (NO2, HFCs, PFCs, SF6)

Public transport and land use

Retirement of older vehicles Efficiency standards for new vehicles/appliances

Local

Inspection and maintenance programs

Adapted from Jason West et al (2002)

Integrated

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Policy integration: Vietnam example

Clean Air Act

National Energy Efficiency Program

http://www.asiandevbank.org/Documents/PIDs/41077012.asp

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Policy integration: Vietnam example (2)

Clean Air Act

National Energy Efficiency Program

Climate Change Act/Program

Good

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Policy integration: Vietnam example (3)

Clean Air Act

National Energy Efficiency Program

Climate change considerations

Climate change considerations

Better

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Mitigation measures: pick winner first

Increased motorization
+ Carbon Natural Gas buses Natural Gas Power (leaks)

Carbon Increase Worse Air Quality

Increased fuel consumption

Carbon Increase, Improved Air Quality

+ PM
Carbon Savings Worse Air Quality
Biomass Burning

Energy Efficiency

Renewable energy

- PM

Carbon Savings, Improved Air Quality

NMT BRT

- Carbon

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Mitigation measures: Transport measures in Hyderabad, India

Transport sector largest source of GHG and air pollutants (Pakistan 46% air pollution from Transport sector) Range of transport measures implemented Co-benefits (projected) 40% reduction in CO2 50% reduction in PM10

India Transportation Measures More effective public transit service (i.e., bus, rail, footpaths) Traffic management and measures to improve traffic flow Maintenance and operation training programs for twostroke vehicles

Integrated environmental Strategies http://www.epa.gov/ies

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Mitigation measures: BRT system - Transit Jakarta, Indonesia

Transport sector large contributor to GHG, air pollutants and traffic congestion
TransJakarta Bus Rapid Transit System introduced in 2004
160,000 passengers/day 7 corridors Separated bus lanes At-level board platforms Pre-paid ticketing

Co-benefits
20,000 metric tons CO2 reduction /year (estimated actual) Reduced air pollutants (not quantified) Reduced traffic congestion and travel times
http://www.itdp.org/index.php/projects/detail/jakarta_brt/

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Mitigation measures: Dust mitigation in Thailand

Lime Master (Thailand) faced dust problems Bag filters to reduce dust emissions Co-benefits (actual)
Environmental benefits per year
Net electricity increase: 109 MW Fuel oil savings: 66,430 liters Air emission reductions: 176 tons CO2 , lime dust

Government trigger for option Company benefit benefits from option

Recovered lime powder: 730 tons/yr Financial savings: US$ 56,000/yr, 1 year payback Social benefits
Reduced staff exposure to dust Reduced community dust exposure Improved relationship community / government

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Co-benefits developments in developed countries

Europe
Research into co-benefits concept to address air pollution and climate change (especially energy and transport sectors) EU proposal to compile joint emissions inventories of GHGs and air pollutants

US
Ongoing discussion to regulate CO2 as a pollutant under the US Clean Air Act California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopting the co-benefits concept in policies to address air pollution and climate change

Japan
Current climate policies no direct reference to co-benefits Collaboration with US on co-benefits theme Co-benefits related policy research and advocacy in Asia

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Co-benefits developments in developing Asian countries

Co-benefits still new concept in Asian policies Common topics: climate change mitigation, air quality management,
transportation, energy (efficiency, renewables, fuel switch), agriculture, waste management

Increasing number of projects incorporate co-benefits: 25 projects

in 2004, 33 in 2005, 51 in 2006

India is developing climate change policy but has no pronounced energy-related targets in economic plans China has clearest grasp of co-benefits concept
Integrated policies for economy, energy and SO2 Issued first Climate Change Action Plan Announced Chinese Environmental Macro-Strategy Study

* CAI-Asias Compendium of AQM-related projects. Note: not new projects but cumulative count.

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Triggers to a co-benefits approach in Asia

Increased scientific evidence linking climate change with other environmental issues Growing pressure for developing countries to address climate change Increased public awareness of environmental health problems and demand for cleaner goods and services Potential to leverage resources (e.g. carbon market) Relevance of co-benefits in advancing sustainable development goals

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Barriers to a co-benefits approach in Asia

Lack of tools/models for co-benefits measurement Limited pool of experts Lack of country profiles/baseline information Incoherent sectoral cooperation and institutional fragmentation of responsibilities Lack of high-level policy forums with co-benefits agenda Disconnect between research/analysis and policymaking Gap in translating EU/US co-benefits knowledge to Asian context

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Opportunities for a co-benefits approach in Asia

Energy efficiency - rapid increase in energy demand but energy
efficiency is generally low

Fuels and cleaner technologies advances in cleaner coal

technologies, which can be applied in Asias expanding power capacity but high renewable energy potential in many countries

Renewable energy low share of renewables in Asias energy mix Sustainable urban transport and transport demand management large and growing emission source, and extensive

improvement opportunities in Asias public transport and non-motorized transport systems of poorly maintained ageing vehicle will bring benefits on fuel efficiency and use, and reduction of emissions

Installing inspection and maintenance systems Large fleets

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Co-benefits: the way forward (1)

Knowledge management Further clarification and consensus on co-benefits definition relevant to Asian context Generation of new knowledge (scientific and technical research) linking climate change with other sectors/issues Information, education, communication and advocacy to align approach with national/local priorities Systematic documentation and dissemination of co-benefits related research (e.g. US and EU knowledge base) to ensure initiatives have content and are effective and comprehensive

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Co-benefits: the way forward (2)

Capacity building Development of methods and tools for quantification, modeling and analysis Development and implementation of multi-stakeholder co-benefits training programs Development of monitoring and evaluation protocol, and indicators Piloting and documenting co-benefits studies and programs in Asia

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Co-benefits: the way forward (3)

Policy dialogues Create policy forums to discuss co-benefits approach Forums should seek participation from
Decision-makers at different levels of governance Other stakeholders (academe, private sectors, industry)

Forums structured by
Level (regional, national and local) Theme Sector

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Co-benefits: the way forward (4)

Networking and collaboration Mobilize a region-wide multi-stakeholder network
To manage interaction of co-benefits institutions To help identify Asia-relevant cobenefits objectives and prioritize activities To share information and technical resources

Criteria for partnerships / collaboration with organizations

Experience Pool of experts Country or local government partners

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THANK YOU

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